SOUTH CAROLINA LINKING STUDY
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1 SOUTH CAROLINA LINKING STUDY A Study of the Alignment of the NWEA RIT Scale with South Carolina s Palmetto Assessment of State Standards (PASS) March 2010 The Kingsbury Center at Northwest Evaluation Association
2 The Kingsbury Center at NWEA 5885 SW Meadows Road, Suite 200 Lake Oswego, OR Tel Fax COPYRIGHT 2010 NORTHWEST EVALUATION ASSOCIATION All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from NWEA. 2 P age
3 A STUDY OF THE ALIGNMENT OF THE NWEA RIT SCALE WITH SOUTH CAROLINA S PALMETTO ASSESSMENT OF STATE STANDARDS (PASS) KINGSBURY CENTER AT NWEA MARCH 2010 Recently, NWEA completed a project to connect the scale of Palmetto Assessment of State Standards (PASS) used for South Carolina mathematics and reading assessments with NWEA s RIT scale. Information from the PASS assessments was used in a study to establish performance level scores on the RIT scale that would indicate a good chance of success on these tests. To perform the analysis, we linked together state test and NWEA test results for a sample of 37,000 South Carolina students from 126 schools who completed both exams in the spring of For the spring season, an equipercentile method was used to estimate the RIT score equivalent to each state performance level. For spring, we determined the percentage of the population within the selected study group that performed at each level on the state test and found the equivalent percentile ranges within the NWEA dataset to estimate the cut scores. For example, if 40% of the study group population in grade 3 mathematics performed below the proficient level on the state test, we would find the RIT score that would be equivalent to the 40 th percentile for the study population (this would not be the same as the 40 th percentile in the NWEA norms). This RIT score would be the estimated point on the NWEA RIT scale that would be equivalent to the minimum score for proficiency on the state test. More complete documentation about this method can be found on our website. Tables 1 through 4 show the best estimate of the minimum RIT equivalent to each PASS performance level for same season (spring) and prior season (fall) RIT scores. These tables can be used to identify students who may need additional help to perform well on these tests. Tables 5 through 8 show the estimated probability of achieving Meets Standard or better on PASS, based on that student s RIT score on MAP. These tables can be used to assist in identifying students who are not likely to pass these assessments, thereby increasing the probability that intervention strategies will be planned and implemented. These tables can also be useful for identifying target RITscore objectives likely to correspond to successful performance on PASS. 3 P age
4 TABLE 1 MINIMUM ESTIMATED SAME SEASON (SPRING) RIT CUT SCORES CORRESPONDING TO SOUTH CAROLINA PASS PERFORMANCE LEVELS MATHEMATICS Grade Did Not Meet Meets Standards Exemplary Cut score Cut score Percentile Cut score Percentile 2 < < < < < < < < < * Note: the cut scores shown in this table are the minimum estimated scores. Meeting the minimum MAP cut score corresponds to a 50% probability of achieving that performance level. Use the probabilities in Tables 5 8 to determine the appropriate target scores for a desired level of certainty. Note: bolded, italicized text denotes extrapolated cut score 4 P age
5 TABLE 2 MINIMUM ESTIMATED SAME SEASON (SPRING) RIT CUT SCORES CORRESPONDING TO SOUTH CAROLINA PASS PERFORMANCE LEVELS READING Grade Did Not Meet Meets Standards Exemplary Cut score Cut score Percentile Cut score Percentile 2 < < < < < < < < < * Note: the cut scores shown in this table are the minimum estimated scores. Meeting the minimum MAP cut score corresponds to a 50% probability of achieving that performance level. Use the probabilities in Tables 5 8 to determine the appropriate target scores for a desired level of certainty. Note: bolded, italicized text denotes extrapolated cut score 5 P age
6 TABLE 3 MINIMUM ESTIMATED PRIOR SEASON (FALL) RIT CUT SCORES CORRESPONDING TO SC PASS PERFORMANCE LEVELS MATHEMATICS Grade Did Not Meet Meets Standards Exemplary Cut score Cut score Percentile Cut score Percentile 2 < < < < < < < < < * Note: the cut scores shown in this table are the minimum estimated scores. Meeting the minimum MAP cut score corresponds to a 50% probability of achieving that performance level. Use the probabilities in Tables 5 8 to determine the appropriate target scores for a desired level of certainty. Note: bolded, italicized text denotes extrapolated cut score 6 P age
7 TABLE 4 MINIMUM ESTIMATED PRIOR SEASON (FALL) RIT CUT SCORES CORRESPONDING TO SOUTH CAROLINA PASS PERFORMANCE LEVELS READING Grade Did Not Meet Meets Standards Exemplary Cut score Cut score Percentile Cut score Percentile 2 < < < < < < < < < * Note: the cut scores shown in this table are the minimum estimated scores. Meeting the minimum MAP cut score corresponds to a 50% probability of achieving that performance level. Use the probabilities in Tables 5 8 to determine the appropriate target scores for a desired level of certainty. Note: bolded, italicized text denotes extrapolated cut score 7 P age
8 TABLE 5 ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF MEETING STANDARDS OR BETTER ON THE PASS MATHEMATICS TEST IN SAME SEASON (SPRING), BY STUDENT GRADE AND RIT RANGE Estimated Probability of Passing State Test Based on Observed MAP Score RIT Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 8% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 7% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 11% 7% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 17% 11% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 25% 17% 8% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% % 36% 25% 12% 7% 4% 2% 2% 1% % 48% 36% 18% 11% 7% 3% 3% 2% % 60% 48% 27% 17% 11% 5% 4% 3% % 71% 60% 38% 25% 17% 8% 7% 5% % 80% 71% 50% 36% 25% 13% 11% 8% % 87% 80% 62% 48% 36% 20% 17% 13% % 92% 87% 73% 60% 48% 29% 25% 20% % 95% 92% 82% 71% 60% 40% 36% 29% % 97% 95% 88% 80% 71% 52% 48% 40% % 98% 97% 92% 87% 80% 64% 60% 52% % 99% 98% 95% 92% 87% 75% 71% 64% % 99% 99% 97% 95% 92% 83% 80% 75% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 95% 89% 87% 83% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 97% 93% 92% 89% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 95% 93% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 97% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% * Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during that same (spring) season. Example: if a third grade student scored 170 on a MAP test taken during the spring season, her/his estimated probability of passing the state test is 7%. 8 P age
9 TABLE 6 ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF MEETING STANDARDS OR BETTER ON THE PASS READING TEST IN SAME SEASON (SPRING), BY STUDENT GRADE AND RIT SCORE Estimated Probability of Passing State Test Based on Observed MAP Score RIT Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 9% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 10% 4% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% % 16% 7% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% % 23% 11% 9% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% % 33% 17% 14% 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% % 45% 25% 22% 10% 8% 5% 5% 3% % 57% 36% 31% 16% 12% 8% 8% 5% % 69% 48% 43% 23% 18% 13% 12% 8% % 78% 60% 55% 33% 27% 20% 18% 13% % 86% 71% 67% 45% 38% 29% 27% 20% % 91% 80% 77% 57% 50% 40% 38% 29% % 94% 87% 84% 69% 62% 52% 50% 40% % 96% 92% 90% 78% 73% 64% 62% 52% % 98% 95% 94% 86% 82% 75% 73% 64% % 99% 97% 96% 91% 88% 83% 82% 75% % 99% 98% 98% 94% 92% 89% 88% 83% % 99% 99% 99% 96% 95% 93% 92% 89% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 93% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 97% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% * Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during that same (spring) season. Example: if a third grade student scored 190 on a MAP test taken during the spring season, her/his estimated probability of passing the state test is 57%. 9 P age
10 TABLE 7 ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF MEETING STANDARDS OR BETTER ON THE PASS MATHEMATICS TEST IN PRIOR SEASON (FALL), BY STUDENT GRADE AND RIT RANGE Estimated Probability of Passing State Test Based on Observed MAP Score RIT Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 9% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 7% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 11% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 17% 8% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 25% 13% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% % 36% 20% 8% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% % 48% 29% 13% 7% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 60% 40% 20% 11% 6% 3% 2% 2% % 71% 52% 29% 17% 10% 5% 4% 3% % 80% 64% 40% 25% 16% 8% 6% 4% % 87% 75% 52% 36% 23% 12% 9% 7% % 92% 83% 64% 48% 33% 18% 14% 11% % 95% 89% 75% 60% 45% 27% 22% 17% % 97% 93% 83% 71% 57% 38% 31% 25% % 98% 96% 89% 80% 69% 50% 43% 36% % 99% 97% 93% 87% 78% 62% 55% 48% % 99% 98% 96% 92% 86% 73% 67% 60% % 100% 99% 97% 95% 91% 82% 77% 71% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 94% 88% 84% 80% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 96% 92% 90% 87% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 95% 94% 92% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 98% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% * Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test in spring, based on a MAP test score taken during the previous (fall) season. Example: if a third grade student scored 170 on a MAP test taken during the fall season, her/his estimated probability of passing the state test in spring is 17%. 10 P age
11 TABLE 8 ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF MEETING STANDARDS OR BETTER ON THE PASS READING TEST IN PRIOR SEASON (FALL), BY STUDENT GRADE AND RIT SCORE Estimated Probability of Passing State Test Based on Observed MAP Score RIT Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% % 8% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 13% 5% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 20% 8% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% % 29% 12% 8% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% % 40% 18% 13% 5% 4% 2% 2% 1% % 52% 27% 20% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% % 64% 38% 29% 13% 9% 6% 5% 4% % 75% 50% 40% 20% 14% 10% 8% 6% % 83% 62% 52% 29% 22% 16% 13% 10% % 89% 73% 64% 40% 31% 23% 20% 16% % 93% 82% 75% 52% 43% 33% 29% 23% % 96% 88% 83% 64% 55% 45% 40% 33% % 97% 92% 89% 75% 67% 57% 52% 45% % 98% 95% 93% 83% 77% 69% 64% 57% % 99% 97% 96% 89% 84% 78% 75% 69% % 99% 98% 97% 93% 90% 86% 83% 78% % 100% 99% 98% 96% 94% 91% 89% 86% % 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 94% 93% 91% % 100% 100% 99% 98% 98% 96% 96% 94% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% * Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test in spring, based on a MAP test score taken during the previous (fall) season. Example: if a third grade student scored a 190 on a MAP test taken during the fall season, her/his estimated probability of passing the state test in spring is 75%. 11 P age
12 The Kingsbury Center at NWEA 5885 SW Meadows Road, Suite 200 Lake Oswego, OR Tel Fax P age
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