2016 USF-Nielsen Sunshine State Survey Data Release 3

Transcription

1 NEW 2016 USF-Nielsen Sunshine State Survey Data Release 3 Detailed Analysis of Hot Topics and Additional Questions on Elections Amendments and Integrity Detailed Contents Hot Topics: Elections Amendments and Integrity Constitutional Amendments: Have Enough Information? Constitutional Amendments: Average Citizens or Special Interests? Felon Voting Rights Automatic Restoration or Petition Governor? Open or Closed Primaries State Government Performance Ratings Providing Highly Dependable Election Equipment State Government Performance Ratings Making it Convenient to Vote State Government Performance Ratings Informing Citizens about Election Laws and Procedures NEW Elections Voter Registration Status Reason for Not Registering (Among Those Not Registered) Who is Eligible to Vote in Nonpartisan Primaries? 1

2 Detailed Analysis of Hot Topics Constitutional Amendments: Have Enough Information? Fully 60% of Floridians say they do not get enough information on proposed constitutional amendments. This opinion is at a four-year high, up from 48% in Over the same period, the share of Floridians that believes they are well-informed on the proposed amendments has fallen from 34% in 2014 to just 22% this year. Another 15% think they only get one side of the issue. Floridians that are employed part-time (25%), live in high-income households (27%) and are college educated (26%) are most likely to believe they get enough information on the amendments. Floridians that are out of the work force (65%), live in low-income households (63%), and have some college education (63%) are the most likely to think that they do not get enough information on the proposed amendments. (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) 2

3 Constitutional Amendments: Average Citizens or Special Interests? A majority 71% of Floridians believes that constitutional amendments are put on the ballot by wellfinanced special interest groups down slightly from 75% in 2012 and The proportion seeing average citizens banding together as the source of proposed amendments remained constant at 17%. Younger Floridians are more likely to think average citizens put amendments on the ballot than older Floridians (22% to 14%), as are low-income households than high-income households (24% to 9%), and less educated over more educated (27% to 13%). (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) 3

4 Felon Voting Rights Automatic Restoration or Petition Governor? This year, over one-third (37%) of Floridians support automatically restoring the voting rights of exfelons, an increase of 5% from Almost half (49%) favor the status quo restoration after petitioning the Governor and being granted approval down 6% from Another 7% do not believe that ex-felons should ever have their voting rights restored the same as Younger Floridians, those with a child at home, African-Americans, and those with some college education are the strongest supporters of automatic restoration of voting rights. The status quo (request, then state approval) preferred by those without a child at home, whites, part-time workers, and college graduates. Older Floridians are most likely to think that voting rights should never be restored. (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) 4

5 Open or Closed Primaries? NEW A majority of self-identified registered voters 67% believes that Florida should move to an open primary system where independents may vote in partisan primaries. Just over 30% believe that the state should keep its current closed primary system. Less than one percent does not understand primary elections. Those most likely to favor a switch to an open primary system are female (70%), younger (80%), unemployed (80%) or working part-time (73%), live in a low-income household (76%), and have lower educational attainment (73%). (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) 5

6 State Government Performance Ratings Providing Highly Dependable Election Equipment A majority of Floridians 52% gives the state good or excellent marks in its provision of dependable election equipment. Fair ratings come from 29% of those surveyed, while 14% grade the state s efforts as poor. Every year since 2010 a majority of Floridians has acknowledged that the state does a good or excellent job of providing dependable election equipment. The state receives the best ratings ( good or excellent ) from females (54%), whites (54%), and residents of the North Florida (65%) and Tampa Bay (53%) regions. The worst ratings ( poor ) come from males (17%), Hispanics (19%), and residents of the Palm Beach (21%) area. (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) 6

7 State Government Performance Ratings Making it Convenient to Vote Of all the elections performance questions, Floridians give the state the best marks for making it convenient to vote. This year, over two-thirds (68%) give the state good or excellent marks for making voting convenient. Only 9% rate the state s efforts as poor while 21% rate the state s performance as fair. However, the proportion of Floridians giving positive rating state performance on making it convenient to vote is near an eight-year low (in 2008, the proportion was 66%). The state receives its best ratings for making voting convenient from females (72%), older Floridians (78%), those with a child at home (71%), whites (75%), retired Floridians (74%), part-time workers (72%), more affluent households (74%), and residents of the Naples (75%), Palm Beach (73%), and Tampa Bay (72%) areas. The most critical of state performance are males (10%), younger Floridians (10%), Hispanics (13%), those not in the work force (19%), those living in mid-income households (12%), and residents of the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale (12%) area. (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) 7

8 State Government Performance Ratings Making it Convenient to Vote, cont. State Government Performance Ratings Informing Citizens about Election Laws and Procedures Floridians do not rate the state government as highly in terms of informing citizens about election laws and procedures compared to other elections topics (see above). Only 43% of Floridians give the state positive ratings for informing citizens on elections topics (34% good ; 9% excellent ). Most Floridians give the state either poor (23%) or fair (32%) ratings. Also concerning to the state is that positive citizen ratings have been consistently falling since 2008 from 64% in that year to just 43% this year. The state receives its best marks for disseminating election information from females (48%), the oldest Floridians (72%), whites (47%), retired Floridians (50%), part-time workers (47%), college graduates (46%), and residents of the Naples (60%) and North Florida (47%) areas. The worst ratings come from males (26%), younger Floridians (29%), Hispanics (31%), unemployed Floridians (31%), those with some college education (26%), and residents of the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale (32%) area. (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) 8

9 State Government Performance Ratings Informing Citizens about Election Laws and Procedures, cont. 9

10 Voter Registration Status ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS Elections In this year s survey, 93% of respondents self-identify as being registered to vote in Florida. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau on voting age population and from the Florida Division of Elections on current registration, the Florida s registration can be estimated at about 80% of the voting-age population. 1 This means that the survey over-represents registered voters. An explanation for this is the halo effect, commonly observed in surveys, that finds survey respondents will self-identify with the socially desirable answer to certain civic questions (i.e. Will you vote? ) regardless of whether it is true or not. Most likely to self-identify as not being a registered voter are males, younger voters, have a child under 18 living in their home, living in low-income homes, and have low formal educational attainment. (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) 1 Calculation is approximate due to differing time periods for both statistics. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Voting-Age Population: Florida, American FactFinder, accessed October 10, Florida Division of Elections, Voter Registration Monthly Report: August 2016, Voter Registration Monthly Reports, accessed October 10,

11 Reason for Not Registering (Among Those Not Registered) Among self-identified non-registered voters, the most frequent reason given for not registering to vote is that the respondent is not eligible (23%). This response has ranked in the top three responses every year the question has been asked and has been the most frequent every year since This year also saw a large increase in the proportions of respondents saying that they did not register because they are either not interested in politics/voting or that their vote does not matter/make a difference. Together, a third of self-identified non-registered voters identify one of these reasons (up from just 8% last year), possibly reflecting public exhaustion and disinterest in a particularly acrimonious presidential race. Part-time workers and those living in low-income households are most likely to respond that they are not registered to vote because of ineligibility. (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) Reason for Not Registering to Vote (Among Those Not Registered) Trend: (Open-ended) Percent of Respondents (%) Reason for Not Registering to Vote Not eligible (non-citizen/felon, etc.) Not interested in politics/voting My vote does not matter/make a difference Never got around to it Religious Reasons Poor quality of candidates/no choices/don't trust them Don't want to be on the voter registration list (which is public)/ don't want to be in file Registered somewhere else/have not moved registration yet Just turned 18 3 Don't know how/where to do it/no time to vote Not knowledgeable enough Don't want jury duty 3 DK/Not Sure/Refuse Other Question: What is the main reason that you are not registered to vote? Notes: Responses from a subset of each respective year s samples (self-identified non-registered voters) Not all responses were used in every year. denotes a category for which there is no data available. Source: Annual USF-Nielsen Sunshine State Surveys USF-Nielsen Sunshine State Survey 11

12 Who is Eligible to Vote in Nonpartisan Primaries? NEW This new question sought to assess the level of knowledge surrounding nonpartisan primaries in Florida, which historically have seen a very low turnout, especially among No Party Affiliation voters. Over three-quarters of self-identified registered voters correctly identified that all registered voters regardless of party affiliation are eligible to vote in nonpartisan primaries. However, 14% thought that only registered Democrats and Republicans were eligible to vote as in party primaries while 1% thought that only registered independents were eligible. Another 10% did not provide an answer. Females and those with some college education are the most likely to misidentify which voters are eligible to vote in nonpartisan primaries. (See Significant Factors Release for all significant differences.) 12

13 2016 USF-Nielsen Sunshine State Survey Crosstabs (Significant Factors): Release 2 Elections Amendments and Integrity Detailed Contents Hot Topics: Elections Amendments and Integrity Constitutional Amendments: Have Enough Information? Constitutional Amendments: Average Citizens or Special Interests? Felon Voting Rights Automatic Restoration or Petition Governor? Open or Closed Primaries NEW State Government Performance Ratings Providing Highly Dependable Election Equipment State Government Performance Ratings Making it Convenient to Vote State Government Performance Ratings Informing Citizens about Election Laws and Procedures Elections Voter Registration Status Reason for Not Registering (Among Those Not Registered) Who is Eligible to Vote in Nonpartisan Primaries? NEW 13

14 Hot Topics: Elections Amendments and Integrity Constitutional Amendments: Have Enough Information? The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. Constitutional Amendments: Have Enough Information? I feel like I have enough information about the pros and cons of each of the proposed constitutional amendments, I generally feel like I just get one side of the issue,... Enough information Only One Side Not enough Some of Each DK/NA/RF Respondent Characteristics % % % % % Weighted Total <1 2 Employment Status * Household Income *** Full Time <1 1 Part Time Not in Work Force Unemployed Retired <1 3 DK/NA/Refused <$35, <1 5 $35,000-$74, $75, <1 DK/NA/Refused Education *** High School or less <1 5 Some College <1 1 College Grad DK/NA/Refused

15 Constitutional Amendments: Average Citizens or Special Interests? The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. Significant Factors: Who Puts Constitutional Amendments on the Ballot Average citizens banding together are who generally puts constitutional amendments on the ballot, well-financed special interest groups are who generally puts constitutional amendments on the ballot. Average Citizens Special Interests Some of Each DK/NA/RF Respondent Characteristics % % % % Weighted Total Age Group ** Household Income *** < and older <$35, $35,000-$74, $75, DK/NA/Refused Education *** High School or less Some College College Grad DK/NA/Refused

16 Felon Voting Rights Automatic Restoration or Petition Governor? The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. Felon Voting Rights Automatic Restoration or Petition Governor? Some states automatically restore the voting rights of convicted felons once they have completed the terms of their sentencing. Others require the person to request that his or her voting rights be reinstated by the state. What is your preference? State Automatic Approval Never DK/NA/RF Respondent Characteristics % % % % Weighted Total Age Group *** and older Child at Home *** Yes No DK/NA/Refused Race/Ethnicity * White African-American Hispanic Other DK/NA/Refused Employment Status * Full Time Household Income *** Part Time Not in Work Force Unemployed Retired DK/NA/Refused <$35, $35,000-$74, $75, DK/NA/Refused Education High School or less Some College College Grad DK/NA/Refused

17 Open or Closed Primaries? NEW The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. Significant Factor: Offer Open Primary Elections Do you think Florida should keep its current system of allowing only party members to vote in a party s primary or should Florida allow independents to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary? Keep Closed Primary Switch to Open Primary DK/NA/RF Respondent Characteristics % % % Weighted Total Gender ** Male Female Age Group *** and older Employment Status * Full Time Part Time Not in Work Force Unemployed Retired DK/NA/Refused Household Income *** <$35, $35,000-$74, $75, DK/NA/Refused Education ** High School or less Some College College Grad DK/NA/Refused

18 State Government Performance Ratings Providing Highly Dependable Election Equipment The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. State Government Performance Ratings Providing Highly Dependable Election Equipment Providing election equipment that is highly dependable Excellent Good Fair Poor DK/NA/RF Respondent Characteristics % % % % % Weighted Total Gender * Male Female Race/Ethnicity * White African-American Hispanic Other DK/NA/Refused Region * Tampa Bay Miami/Ft. Lauderdale Orlando Palm Beach North Florida Naples

19 State Government Performance Ratings Making it Convenient to Vote The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. State Government Performance Ratings Making it Convenient to Vote Making it convenient to vote Excellent Good Fair Poor DK/NA/RF Respondent Characteristics % % % % % Weighted Total Gender *** Male Female Age Group *** and older Child at Home *** Yes <1 No DK/NA/Refused Race/Ethnicity *** White Employment Status ** Household Income *** African-American Hispanic Other DK/NA/Refused Full Time Part Time Not in Work Force Unemployed Retired DK/NA/Refused <$35, $35,000-$74, <1 $75, <1 DK/NA/Refused Region * Tampa Bay Miami/Ft. Lauderdale Orlando Palm Beach North Florida Naples

20 State Government Performance Ratings Informing Citizens about Election Laws and Procedures The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. State Government Performance Ratings Informing Citizens about Election Laws and Procedures Q9I. Informing citizens about election laws & procedures Excellent Good Fair Poor DK/NA/RF Respondent Characteristics % % % % % Weighted Total Gender ** Male Female Age Group *** and older Race/Ethnicity *** White Employment Status *** African-American Hispanic Other DK/NA/Refused Full Time Part Time Not in Work Force Unemployed Retired DK/NA/Refused Education * High School or less Some College College Grad DK/NA/Refused Region ** Tampa Bay Miami/Ft. Lauderdale Orlando Palm Beach North Florida Naples

21 Additional Elections Questions Voter Registration Status The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. Voter Registration Status Are you currently registered to vote in Florida? Yes No DK/NA/RF Respondent Characteristics % % % Weighted Total 93 7 <1 Gender ** Male Female 96 4 <1 Age Group * < and older 100 <1 0 Child at Home * Yes 92 8 <1 No DK/NA/Refused Household Income *** <$35, $35,000-$74, $75, <1 DK/NA/Refused Education *** High School or less <1 Some College College Grad DK/NA/Refused

22 Reason for Not Registering (Among Those Not Registered) The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. Note that only the Not eligible to vote response is reported because of the subset size of the question. Significant Factor: Not registered because not eligible to vote Not eligible to vote Yes Not Mentioned Respondent Characteristics % % Weighted Total 2 98 Employment Status * Full Time 2 98 Part Time 3 97 Not in Work Force 1 99 Unemployed 2 98 Retired <1 100 DK/NA/Refused Household Income * <$35, $35,000-$74, $75, DK/NA/Refused

23 Who is Eligible to Vote in Nonpartisan Primaries? NEW The level of significance is reported next to each variable according to the following convention: * is significant at the 0.5 level; ** is significant at the 0.01 level; and *** is significant at the level. Responses with less than 0.5% of responses are denoted with <1 while true zero is denoted with 0. Note that the total adds to 100% across each row. Who is Eligible to Vote in Nonpartisan Primary In Florida, candidates for school boards and trial court judgeships run in nonpartisan races. The most recent primary election for these positions was held in August. Who is eligible to vote in this kind of nonpartisan primary election? Registered Republican & Democrats Registered Independents All of the above DK/NA/RF Respondent Characteristics % % % % Weighted Total Gender *** Male Female Education ** High School or less Some College College Grad DK/NA/Refused END 23