The Challenge to Japan s Economy in the Global Setting
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1 The Challenge to Japan s Economy in the Global Setting Toyoharu Takahashi Professor of Finance, Faculty of Commerce, Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan Visiting Fellow, Australia-Japan Research Centre, ANU, ACT, Australia
2 2 contents Outlook of world and Japanese economies Financial Tsunami Aging society Japanese fiscal deficit Strong Japanese Yen Concluding remarks
3 3 Section1 Outlook of World and Japanese Economy
4 4 Macroeconomic Outlook Economic Growth Inflation Unemployment Global trade
5 5 Macroeconomic Outlook Economic Growth Inflation Unemployment Global trade
6 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 88 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
7 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 88 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
8 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 87 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
9 9 Macroeconomic Outlook Economic Growth Inflation Unemployment Global trade
10 Percentage change of CPI from previous year Source: OECD Economic Outlook 88 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
11 Percentage change of CPI from previous year Source: OECD Economic Outlook 88 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
12 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 87 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
13 13 Macroeconomic Outlook Economic Growth Inflation Unemployment Global trade
14 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 87 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
15 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 87 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
16 16 Macroeconomic Outlook Economic Growth Inflation Unemployment Global trade
17 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 88 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
18 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 88 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
19 19 Section 2 Financial Tsunami ---How They Damaged the Japanese Economies---
20 20 ACE Purpose 1. Retest two hypotheses by using the evaluation of investors: a risk premium for bonds issued by such industries 2. Check the policy announcement effects by event studies. Implication of retest? (If both hypotheses are correct) relief policy should be prescribed with an emphasis in non-manufacturing industry causing tsunami the lessons from the Japanese tsunami are not necessarily applicable to the present Japanese slump by the US tsunami. Implication of checking the policy effects? It shows us whether the policy is appropriate to an identified cause of economic slump based on retest.
21 ACE /09/28 21 Tsunami 津波 (Tsu-Nami)= 津 harbor + 波 wave Earthquake Tsunami Disastrous Impacts to Ships Buildings Coast etc Economic Impacts (Slump in regional or nationwide economy)
22 ACE /09/28 22 Financial Tsunami Burst of Bubble Financial Tsunami Damage in Financial Industry Damage in Non- Financial Industry Economic Impacts (Slump in the Japanese economy)
23 r r The specification of risk change process : SWAP,t IND,t 1 2 1,t 2,t t-1 log h F NF NF F r r 0 ~ N, 0 SWAP,t-1 IND,t-1 h h 1,t 1,t h 1 r 2 2,t Out F Out NF EURO,t-1 h h 1,t 2,t h 2,t 1,t 2,t z i,t-1 i3 log hi,t-1 i4 log j,t-1 i, t i0 g h g z i,t-1 i1 i,t-1 h i,t-1 2 i2 i,t-1 h i,t-1 ˆ (,,,, ) The maximum likelihood estimate for will be assumed to be asymptotically normal and consistent with a covariance matrix equal to the inverse of Fisher s information matrix (traditional inference procedures are available). 23 ACE
24 24 Financial Tsunamis hit Japanese Economy 1. Japanese Tsunami Burst of the bubble in the Japanese Stock and Real estate markets in Asian Tsunami Asian Financial Crisis in US Tsunami global financial crisis in 2008
25 25
26 26
27 ACE /09/28 27 Japanese Financial Tsunami 1990 Burst of Stock and Real Estate Bubble Financial Tsunami Damage in Financial Industry Damage in Non- Financial Industry Economic Impacts (Slump in the Japanese economy)
28 ACE /09/28 28 Asian Financial Tsunami 1997 Burst of Exchange Rate Bubble Financial Tsunami Damage in Financial Industry Damage in Non- Financial Industry Economic Impacts (Slump in the Japanese economy)
29 ACE /09/28 29 US Financial Tsunami 2008 Burst of Subprime Mortgage Bubble Financial Tsunami Damage in Financial Industry Damage in Non- Financial Industry Economic Impacts (Slump in the Japanese economy)
30 ACE /09/28 30 Effectiveness of Policies JP tsunami Most of the banking policies were effective at least for the financial industry Asian tsunami Most of the international policy harmonization were effective US tsunami No domestic policy was effective International policy coordination was effective
31 31 Section 5 AGING SOCIETY
32 32 Population Aging Inverse Dependency Ratio # of working age/ # of non-working age How many working people is/will be supporting one non-working people Working age=15 to 64 Non-working age= 0-14 & 65+
33 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
34 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
35 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
36 36 Policies for aging Child allowance The DPJ has promised a 26,000yen a month child allowance. Women don't need a child allowance, they need services,'' she says, especially more day-care centers open longer hours. Reform on pension funds
37 37 Section 3 Japanese Fiscal Deficit and Yield on JGB
38 Percentage of GDP Source: OECD Economic Outlook 88 database. Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
39 39
40 Source: Nikkei Needs Financial Quest Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
41 41
42 Source: Bank of Japan Flow of Funds Accounts 2010 Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
43 Source: Bloomberg Toyoharu Takahashi (Chuo/ANU) 18 Mar
44 44 Section 4 STRONG JAPANESE YEN
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49 Section 6 Concluding Remarks
50 50 Future of the Japanese Economies Crisis Scenario Positive Scenario Muddle Through
51 51 Crisis Scenario road to bankruptcy Society aging can t support social welfare system Lack of political leadership for the tax increase Government deficit grow too rapid to finance Economic growth remains low level due to an accelerated overseas production
52 52 Positive Scenario V-shaped recovery Political accord will be made Total fiscal reform will accomplished Domestic demand will increase due to the increase in confidence of future economic situation Productivity will increase
53 53 Muddle Through Fiscal deficit remains high level Yield on JGB still low, due to the low demand for funds in private sector
54 54 THANK YOU!
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