( ) 1945) Successes and Failures in Japanese Economic Development. Phase II (1970s 80s) Failure to reform & bubble economy

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1 Post-war Development of the Japanese Economy Development, Japanese/Asian Style April, 8 Shigeru T. Otsubo* GSID, Nagoya University Devastation during WWII ( ) 1945) Human loss 1.85 million (.8 million) deaths Material loss 5 of national wealth Industrial production dropped to 1/1 of the prewar level. Hyper-inflation with commodity shortage (w/ inputs from Prof. A.Furukawa, Ritsumeikan Univ.) (Downloadable from: Successes and Failures in Japanese Economic Development Phase I ( s) Catching-up process -- Post-war democratization -- Common goal -- Savings shortage & directed allocation -- Japanese-style Market system -Employment practices - Main bank system - Corporate governance - Gov t intervention & public policies Phase II (197s 8s) Failure to reform & bubble economy -- Front-runner necessity for competitive market -- Failure to transform the system -- Expansive behavior by businesses/banks -- Macroeconomic policy to cope with yen s appreciation -- Bubble Phase III (199s - ) Long stagnation & beyond -- Excess capacity -- NPL and financial crisis -- Confidence crisis -- Deflation -- Expansive macro- economic policy - Zero interest - Budget deficit -- Structural reform - Regulatory - Financial, etc. Part I: Postwar Economic Reforms and Rehabilitation (1945 mid 195s) + Part II: High Economic Growth Period (mid 195s early 197s) 1

2 1.1 Post-war Economic Reforms Zaibatsu dissolution Dissolution of Zaibatsu conglomerates; Prevention of economic power concentration Democratization of the Economy Fair market rules Anti-trust Law; Securities Exchange Law; etc. 1-4 Coping with Savings Shortage Investment ratio Household savings ratio Source: SNA Investment ratio = (private and public investment) / GDP Household savings ratio = (household savings) / (household o disposable income) Prior to 1955, the older SNA level was adjusted using average difference between the two series Agrarian reform Elimination of tenant system; Growing # of independent farmers Labor market reform Legalization of labor movement; Establishment of labor unions Policy measures to cope with savings shortage Targeted policy to allocate funds to key sectors -- Relying on financial intermediaries for capital supply -- FILP and public financial institutions -- BOJ monetary expansion through window guidance over-lending, over-borrowing 1-5 Growth without Inflation; Mobilization of Funds Avoidance of inflation in spite of monetary expansion Low interest rates and credit rationing Regulation -- Extraordinary Interest Control Law (1948) Window guidance -- official discount rate kept low Interbank call market higher call rates - incentives for small/regional banks to provide funds for larger banks Interest rates and BOJ loans Source: Tomita p.11 1 billion yen Call rate (right) BOJ loan (left) Discount rate (right) Balanced Budget and Issuance of Gov t Bond Balanced budget 1947: Budget Law -- Prohibiting deficit financing bonds 1949: Attainment of balanced budget on consolidated basis Bond issuance 1965 recession Perception of the end of investment-led t ldgrowth Issuance of deficit covering bond 1966~ Construction bond FY Central gov t bond issuance ( of total revenue, general account)

3 -8 Role of Economic Planning 14 economic plans officially adopted Economic plans in a free market economy Indicative-type rather than Command-type Sharing of information between the government and the public (business and household sectors) -- Medium-run development scenario the government assumes, including target economic growth rate and other indicators -- Medium-run economic policy stance and policy priority, including allocation of funds for investment in social overhead capital -- Economic behavior of household and business sectors that the government deems desirable -1 Entering Virtuous Cycle Period of rapid growth ( ) Average real 11.1 growth rate Source: National Accounts Dual structure -- lower productivity and poorer working conditions in small businesses, consumption-goods and service sectors National consensus -- trickle-down strategy -3 Rapid growth as a catching-up process -5 Market Opening in the 196s Market opening on a scheduled, step-by-step basis Catching-up process Goal of development Consensus formation Advantage of latecomers -- introduction of technology and process innovation -- lower business risks -- incentive for innovation and quality control through competition in foreign market Foreign trade 196: Trade Liberalization Program Positive list Negative list Foreign currency yquota Automatic approval Import liberalization ratio Foreign exchange 196 Restoring yen s convertibility 1964 Accepting IMF Code Article 8 Inward FDI 1967~197 Basic Program for Capital Account Liberalization 197 Majority foreign ownership was allowed in 8 of industries 3

4 -6 Changes in Japan s Comparative Advantage Changes in trade structure and positive adjustments Export-led growth? Export structure Other material Metal Textile Food Machinery Motor vehicle Other manufac. Contribution to GDP growth point 4 Business investment Export Source: SNA : older SNA Part III: Socio-Economic Outcome of Rapid Growth ( 197s ) 4-1 Elements of Japanese-Style Market System Part IV: Japanese-Style Market System For a Miracle Recovery Employment system Main-bank system Corporate management Cross share-holding Parts supplier Keiretsu Industrial policy/regulation The 194 Regime originated just before WWII Adjusted by themselves after the war Long-term relations Organizational trade Stability-oriented Interventionist government 4

5 Corporate governance built on cross share-holdingsholdings Substitute for -- Autonomy of corporate managers Zaibatsu -- Long-term management perspective Prevention of M&As -- Low capital cost of equity finance Shares issued by business companies Ratio of shares held by stable holders of which held by financial institutions Shares issued by banks Ratio of shares held by stable holders of which held by business companies Corporate finance relying on banking sector Functions of the main-bank system Saving of costs associated with asymmetry of information Screening and monitoring Signaling to other financial institutions Corporate governance Insurance to corporate management risks Information exchange Source: NLI Research Institute (adjusted series for changes in disclosure rules) Bond Equity Before the war: Equity finance dominant Bank loan Own fund During the war: Banking was promoted Financing Sources of industrial investment tig ght regulation C onvoy system After the war: Bank finance Main-bank system Labor market practices based on long-term employment Japanese-style employment practices Long-term or life-time employment Wage increases and promotions based on seniority it On-the-job training (OJT) Intra-company labor unions Rationality of long-term employment Accumulation of company-specific skills and technology Smooth transfer of skills from one employee to another Smooth introduction of new technology Saving of workers transition costs of changing jobs Less need to monitor workers 5

6 Part V: The Evolution of the Japanese Development Model *** End of Catching-Up Process Bubble Economy (197s 198s) ** Lost Decade and Beyond (199s -) 5-1 Failure to Adjust to Post-Catch-Up Era The end of the catch-up process Survival of the Japanese-style economic system and practices Strengthened by the success in overcoming the oil crises Implicit goals shared by all segments during the catch-up period Post-catch-up period Common goal disappeared Japanese-Style Market System -- long-term relations -- information sharing To attain success -- consensus formation -- coordinated actions Autonomous action Top management forced to steer the ship 5- Japanese (poor) corporate governance that caused the bubble Corporate managers interested in expansion of the company and stable relations with stakeholders; overlooked profitability and risks Banks struggled for new customers; lacked risk assessment of borrowers Capital market lost corporate monitoring function; equity finance Race for size expansion Neglecting risks & profits Moral hazard Employment practice Consensus for job security The bubble economy Call for int l policy coordination Yen s appreciation Economic stimulus by BOJ and gov t price Land 5-3 Emergence of the bubble Land price 3 increase (left) Asset prices Stock price (right) end June, end December , 4, 35, 3, 5,, 15, 1, 5, HPM average Monetary aggregates M+CD Nikkei a 6

7 5-4 Burst Bubble and the Lost Decade 1 GDP growth rate Nominal growth Real growth Source: ESRI, Cabinet Office, "Annual Report on National Accounts Note: data after 1995 is based on chain-linking method, price. Average annual growth rate 1956~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1. 1~5 1.4 Note: data before 198 are based on the 1968-based SNA. Budget balance( of GDP) 6 4 UK - France -4-6 USA Germany -8 Japan -1 Italy -1 Government debt ( of GDP) Italy Japan USA France Source: OECD Economic Outlook 78 6 ( Dec. 5) 4 Germany Note: General government budget UK Part VI: Structural Reforms in The Japanese Development Model 6-1 Japanese System in Transformation Employment system Main-bank system Corporate management Cross share holding Parts supplier Keiretsu Industrial policy/regulation Major challenge IT and globalization Mega-competition Aging of labor force Change of values Structural reform Marketization, competition, choice, diversity, own risk Cohabitation and competition of systems based on comparative advantage 7

8 6-7 Structural Reform: Agenda for Sustainable Growth Expansion of Corporate Activity and Investment Job choice society Self-reliance of Individuals Corporate governance Employment practices Corporate accounts disclosure Corporate pension (41k type) Corporate restructuring FDI into Japan IT revolution Human capital investment Portfolio investment diversification Regulatory reform Entrepreneurship promotion Corporate taxation Personal income taxation Financial system reform SME policy Social security Education reform Public investment reform Labor market liberalization Information network Budget consolidation Administrative reform FILP reform Local gov t autonomy Electronic government Compact and Efficient Government Stop Here!! Back to the Main PP File 8