Forecast for Hong Kong
|
|
- Randolf Winfred Cole
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Highlights GDP in Q2 is quite likely to be even weaker than the.2% quarterly rise in Q1. Latest trade data show the extent to which the lack of momentum on the Mainland is hindering activity in Hong Kong s key re-export sector, with seasonally adjusted goods export values in the three months to May down.4% on the previous period. These subdued trade flows have led to a series of weak PMI readings, in contraction territory in May for the second successive month. Falling new orders from the Mainland were one of the weakest components of the index. Hong Kong asset prices were hit hard in June as investors pulled out of emerging markets and riskier assets more generally on global growth and policy fears. At end June, the Hang Seng was over 11% down on its May peak, while yields on 1-year government bonds rose sharply. There are also signs that property price growth may be faltering, with two months of mild decline in March-April. If this weakness in asset prices continues, then it might threaten the luxury spending that has driven the recent strong outturns in consumption and retail sales. Looking ahead, the prospects for Mainland China are not as positive as we had previously been assuming, with the authorities apparently willing to accept a slower pace of growth to rebalance the economy. We now expect Mainland growth of just above 7% for 213 and 214. This means that net trade will continue to weigh on Hong Kong s GDP, offsetting still quite robust domestic consumer spending. Therefore, we now expect 2.2% growth this year and 2.9% in 214. (Annual percentage changes unless specified) Domestic Demand Private Consumption Fixed Investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government Consumption Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services GDP Industrial Production Consumer Prices Current Balance (% of GDP) Government Budget (% of GDP) Current Account ($bn) Trade Balance ($bn) Short-Term Interest Rates (%) Exchange Rate (Per US$) Forecast for Hong Kong For further information contact Jonathan Buss (jbuss@oxfordeconomics.com)
2 Forecast Overview Weak recovery in After growth of 1.5% in 212, Hong Kong is forecast to see only a very modest pick-up in activity this year and next. The near-term outlook has deteriorated considerably in recent months, largely due to external developments. Most notably, we have made further downward revisions to our forecast for Chinese growth, with 7.2% now expected for this year and only 7.1% in 214, down from a forecast of more than 8% at the start of this year. This will restrain Hong Kong s re-export trade and trade-related services. As a result, there will be a bigger drag from net trade in the near term, even though elements of domestic demand remain reasonable. Consequently, we now forecast that Hong Kong will grow by 2.2% this year and 2.9% in 214, down from our late May forecasts of 2.8% and 3.8% respectively. reflecting modest Chinese growth Exports of trade-related services are forecast to be held back significantly by more subdued growth in China and the subsequent impact on Hong Kong s merchandise re-export trade. Further growth slowdown in China as a hub for merchandise re-export trade, Hong Kong s economy is highly sensitive to world trade conditions, especially those in Mainland China. We now envisage a much weaker near-term profile for China, where the authorities have again indicated their willingness to restrain overall credit growth, permit currency appreciation and allow GDP growth to slow in an attempt to rebalance the economy towards consumption and maintain financial stability. This will weigh on Hong Kong s goods re-export trade. Most importantly for GDP growth, much of Hong Kong s service sector (which makes up over 9% of the GDP) consists of trade-related services such as trade finance, insurance and transport. Subdued goods trade is expected to have a negative knock-on effect on these crucial sectors. Soft financial markets non-trade related financial services are another of Hong Kong s key export sectors. Investor re-evaluation of emerging market prospects and uncertainty over policy in the US and China are undermining financial markets in the near term. This will hit non-banking financial services. And the banking sector, which does increasing amounts of Hong Kong: Contributions to GDP % year Domestic demand GDP Net exports F'cast Source: Oxford Economics / CEIC Hong Kong: Exports and imports % year Imports (HK$) Exports (HK$) Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong: Retail sales % year Source: Census and Statistics Department Total volume of retail sales
3 CNY business on both sides of its balance sheet, will be affected by tighter credit conditions and weaker profits on the Mainland. and mixed domestic demand However, while the external outlook is subdued, domestic spending growth should remain fairly solid. Strong private consumption growth of 6% this year should offset relatively weak fixed investment. Supply constraints in construction the property market has boomed in the last few years. However, despite the strong price incentives for new construction, the supply response is relatively muted due to land constraints and planning laws. The government has outlined plans to increase the supply of land for new construction, which should ensure some impetus for investment in 213. However, given the sharp drop in 213Q1, total investment is likely to contribute only marginally to overall growth this year. Robust household finances on the other hand, household finances look quite solid. Ongoing strength is forecast for the core consumer market employment is still increasing steadily while a tight labour market is helping wage growth stay above CPI inflation. However, if financial asset prices continue to weaken and property prices also fall noticeably, then this could undermine the hitherto buoyant luxury end of the consumer spending market. Balanced risks to the forecast The risks to our forecast are broadly balanced: Stronger Asian recovery our forecasts for Mainland China are now quite cautious, and there is the possibility of a return to faster growth than in our baseline if infrastructure spending and credit growth spur a more active private sector. This would probably lead to higher Hong Kong growth than in our baseline via a larger boost to net trade. Property crash however, property prices are currently very high, with price-rent ratios above historic averages. Various events could conceivably trigger an abrupt correction surprisingly fast monetary tightening in the US or China, or overzealous government intervention over housing costs, for example. Such a correction could cause major wealth and financial shocks to domestic demand, potentially sending Hong Kong back into recession. Hong Kong: Consumption and investment % year Consumption Investment Source: Oxford Economics / CEIC Hong Kong: Asset prices 28H1 = Housing Offices Forecast Stockmarket Source: Hang Seng Index Services / Hong Kong Rating & Valuation Dept. Hong Kong: Price-rent ratio, high-end housing Price/rent ratio Private housing Private housing, 1-yr moving average Source: Hong Kong Rating & Valuation Dept.
4 Key Indicators: Hong Kong Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated Cement Unemploy- CPI Exports Imports Trade Retail Domestic production ment US$ US$ balance sales exports % (US$ mn) nominal US$ % May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Financial Indicators: Hong Kong Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated Int. rate Prime Money Exchange Exchange Exchange Share Reserves 6mth lending rate Supply rate rate rate price (total) % % (M3) HK$/ avg HK$/$ avg HK$/1Y Hang Seng US$ Bn May , Jun , Jul , Aug , Sep , Oct , Nov , Dec , Jan , Feb , Mar , Apr , May ,
5 HONGKONG TABLE 1 SUMMARY ITEMS Annual Percentage Changes, Unless Otherwise Specified CONSUMERS REAL PERS. SAVING REAL INDUSTRIAL UNEMPLOY- AVERAGE WHOLE COMPETIT- CONSUMER RESERVES EXPENDITURE DISPOSABLE RATIO GDP PRODUCTION MENT RATE EARNINGS ECONOMY IVENESS PRICES (US$ BN) INCOME (%) (%) PRODUCT- (28=1) (END IVITY PERIOD) (C) (PEDY) (PESR) (GDP) (IP) (UP) (ER) (GDP/ET) (WCR) (CPI) (RES$) YEARS BEGINNING Q I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV COPYRIGHT (C), OXFORD ECONOMICS HONGKONG TABLE 2 SUMMARY ITEMS TRADE CURRENT CURRENT GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT SHORT-TERM LONG-TERM REAL REAL EXCHANGE EXCHANGE BALANCE ACCOUNT ACCOUNT FINANCIAL FINANCIAL INTEREST INTEREST SHORT-TERM LONG-TERM RATE PER RATE PER (HK$ BN) (HK$ BN) (% OF GDP) BALANCE BALANCE RATE RATE INTEREST INTEREST US YEN (HK$ BN) (% OF GDP) RATE RATE DOLLAR (BVI) (BCU) (BCU*1 (GB) (GB*1 (RSH) (RLG) (Note 1) (Note 1) (RXD) (RXYEN) /1 /1 /GDP!) /1 /GDP!) YEARS BEGINNING Q I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Note 1 : REAL INTEREST RATES = Nominal interest rate (RSH or RLG) - % change in CPI COPYRIGHT (C), OXFORD ECONOMICS
6 Potential output growth 3.3%pa Potential output is projected to rise by 3.3%pa over the next 1 years, a significantly lower rate than in the previous decade. GDP is set to expand by 2.2% in 213, having grown by 1.5% in 212 and to be slightly below potential growth at 2.9% in 214. As a result, the large output gap of 2.% in 212 will expand in 213 to 2.5% and increase in 214 to 2.6%, and it is not forecast to close fully until 22. The main contribution to growth in potential output over the coming decade comes from expanding capital usage. The.1%pt contribution from expanding labour usage reflects the.1%pa fall in the working population over the next ten years and an increase in the participation rate which combine to boost the labour supply by.1%pa. For the capital stock's contribution of 1.8%pt, the main factor is slightly lower investment growth (at 4%pa) than in the previous decade. Finally, total factor productivity growth's slightly higher contribution of 1.5%pt reflects the better contribution to potential growth from factors influencing production other than labour and capital over the coming decade. Hong Kong: Real GDP & potential output HKD billions, 212 constant prices quarter moving average Potential output Actual GDP Forecast Source: Oxford Economics Potential GDP and Its Components Average Percentage Growth Potential GDP* Employment at NAIRU.9.1 Capital Stock Total Factor Productivity *ln(potential GDP)=.65*ln(Employment at NAIRU) +.35*ln(Capital Stock)+ln(Total Factor Productivity) Long-Term Forecast for Hong Kong (Average annual percentage change unless otherwise stated) GDP Consumption Investment Government Consumption Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Unemployment (%) Consumer Prices Current Balance (% of GDP) Exchange Rate (vs US$) General Government Balance (% of GDP) Short-term Interest Rates (%) Long-term Interest Rates (%) Working Population Labour Supply Participation Ratio Labour Productivity
7 Long-Term Forecast for Hong Kong Annual percentage changes unless otherwise specified GDP Consumption Investment Government Consumption Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Unemployment (%) Consumer Prices Current Balance (% of GDP) Exchange Rate (per $) General Government Balance (% of GDP) Short-term Interest Rates (%) Long-term Interest Rates (%) Working Population Labour Supply Participation Ratio (%) Labour productivity Employment Output gap (% of potential GDP)
8 Background Hong Kong Hong Kong emerged as one of the first Asian tigers, alongside Japan, with annual GDP growth of 8-1% for many years from the 196s to the 199s. There were turbulent periods, specifically related to events in China and issues over the British mandate and handover conditions etc, but these were short-lived. The 1997 handover meant that Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China with its own appointed legislative council (LEGCO) and a continued independent monetary authority (the HKMA). However, the handover coincided with the onset of the Asian crisis in 1997 and the bursting of the local property and stock market bubble that had built up prior to handover. As a result the economy suffered a severe recession and financial market turbulence in Moreover after a strong 2 the recovery was slow in 21-3, with both consumption and investment undermined by a weak property market. And the impact of the SARS outbreak in the first half of 23 was another major negative. But as the mainland s boom gathered pace and its trade with the rest of the world soared, with a significant percentage going through Hong Kong, the latter s economy soon responded recording annual GDP growth of 7% or higher in 24-6 and 6.4% in 27. With regard to domestic spending, household consumption rose more strongly (6.1% pa) during this period than investment (4.3% pa), indeed the level of the latter in 27 was still below that seen ten years earlier. Inevitably given Hong Kong s dependence on world trade (exports of goods and services were 212% of GDP in 28), the economy was severely hit by the global crisis, with GDP 7.8% down year-on-year at its weakest point in 29Q1. However, the easing of the recession in the main developed economies and the rapid bounce back in the mainland helped trigger a recovery from Q2 onwards. With the finance and property sectors recovering, GDP grew 6.8% in 21 and 4.9% in 211 after a 2.5% fall in 29. Already a major trading and financial hub in Asia, Hong Kong s position has been greatly enhanced by the rise of China as an economic superpower. Although domestic merchandise exports have dwindled, overall export growth has remained high due to the steady increase in throughput trade, the services associated with this, and the strong growth in financial services (whose expansion has been driven by meeting both the requirements of companies and individuals from the mainland as well as those of foreign companies seeking to invest in China. The different legal setting to that on the mainland has ensured that the financial sectors in both Hong Kong and Shanghai have grown very strongly in recent years). According to the Census and Statistics Department, the four key industries in the economy accounted for almost 6% of GDP in 27 (up from 52% in 23) financial services 19.5% and responsible for most of the increase, tourism 3.4%, trading and logistics 25.8%, and professional services 3.9%. By contrast manufacturing and construction only accounted for 2.5% and 2.6% of GDP respectively in 27 (the remainder consisted of domestic-oriented services). A key anchor to the Hong Kong economy has been the HKD peg to the US$, backed by a large pool of foreign exchange reserves. This was maintained throughout the 1998 Asian crisis despite intense speculation that, among the slump in Hong Kong s trade and economic activity triggered by the crisis, the authorities would not be able to prevent the collapse of the peg, particularly as soaring interest rates were exacerbating the intensity of the recession. But in response to international investors attempting to build positions on the back of an expected devaluation of the HKD peg, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority adopted an unusual policy in retaliation buying a large stake in the stock market to halt the slide. This move successfully quelled the speculation and facilitated the subsequent turnaround in the economy. Donald Tsang, then financial secretary, was widely credited with this policy success. More recently, speculation has focused instead on the implications for Hong Kong and its currency peg of the anticipated appreciation of the Chinese CNY. Certainly the change to a floating exchange rate regime in China in July 25 opened up the possibility that the HKD peg might be dropped eventually, with implications for currency management, monetary policy and reserves. And while the onset of the global crisis and the Chinese decision to effectively re-peg the CNY from July/August 28 onwards halted that debate for a time, the improvement in global financial sentiment since mid-29 and the clear evidence of very strong GDP growth on the mainland re-ignited expectations that the CNY peg might be removed (associated with this were very heavy capital inflows into Hong Kong reserves soared in late 29 and have since climbed further to over US$3bn in 213Q1).
9 Key Facts Politics Head of state: President of China XI Jinping Head of government: Chief Executive Chun-ying LEUNG Political system: Limited democracy Date of next executive election: March 217 Date of next legislative election: September 216 Currency: Hong Kong dollar (HKD) Long-term economic & social development * GDP per capita (US$) Inflation (%) Population (mn) Urban population (% of total) Life expectancy (years) Source : Oxford Economics & World Bank Structure of GDP by output * 212 or latest 29 available year Agriculture.1% Source : CIA Factbook Industry 7.4% Location : Eastern Asia, bordering the South China Sea and China Services 92.6% (CIA Factbook) Source : World Bank Long-term sovereign credit ratings & outlook Corruption perceptions index 212 Foreign currency Local currency Score Fitch AA+ (Stable) AA+ (Stable) Developed economies (average) 74.8 Moody's Aa1 (Stable) Aa1 (Stable) Emerging economies (average) 38. S&P AAA (Stable) AAA (Stable) Hong Kong 77. Emerging Asia 35.4 Structural economic indicators * Current account (US$ billion) Trade balance (US$ billion) FDI (US$ billion) Govt net debt stock (HK$ bn) Govt balance (HK$ billion) Foreign exch.reserves(us$ bn) Oil production ( bpd) Oil consumption ( bpd) Source : Oxford Economics / World Bank / EIA Destination of goods' exports (211) China 54.1% European Union (27) 1.2% United States 9.4% Japan 3.8% India 2.7% Source : WTO Source: Transparency International Scoring system 1 = highly clean, = highly corrupt Source : WTO Composition of goods & services exports, 211 Manufactures 7.7% Other goods exports 4.6% Transportation 5.7% Fuels and mining products 2.% Travel 4.8% Other commercial services 1.6% Agricultural products 1.6%
Forecast for Hong Kong
Highlights Despite an unexpectedly strong outturn for Q2 GDP, more recent data show that underlying activity remains weak. Trade flows have faltered after decent July numbers, with the seasonally adjusted
More informationAll the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015
Aug Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets All the BRICs dampening world trade in World trade in has been hit by an unexpectedly sharp drag from the very largest emerging economies. The weakness in
More informationForecast for Indonesia
Highlights Exit polls indicate that the main opposition party, the n Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), won most support in this month s parliamentary elections. Even so, the PDI-P s estimated 19% share
More informationSouth Korea. Country Economic Forecast. Highlights. Forecast for Korea. 27 Jul 2015
Country Economic Forecast Highlights Korea grew by just.3% on the quarter in Q, down from.8% in Q. The MERS virus outbreak in late May caused household spending to fall by.3% on the quarter in Q after
More informationBrazil. Highlights and Key Issues. Forecast for Brazil (Annual percentage changes unless specified)
Highlights and Key Issues National accounts data show a disappointing performance by the Brazilian economy in Q1. GDP rose by just.2% on the quarter, with particular weakness in fixed investment. And more
More informationCommercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York
US, China and emerging markets: What s next for the global economy? Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York Overview Key points for 2015-16 Global economy struggling to gain traction
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast July 7, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast April 9, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationHong Kong Economic Update
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com May 28 Hong Kong Economic Update Hong Kong s March export growth stayed low at 7.6 yoy, as exports to
More informationForecast for China. (Annual percentage changes unless specified)
Country Economic Forecast Highlights August data were notable for a sharp decline in industrial production growth from 8.9% in Q2 to 6.9%. However, other data slowed largely as expected, with fixed investment
More information2012 6 http://www.bochk.com 2 3 4 ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) June, 2012 Economics & Strategic Planning Department http://www.bochk.com An Analysis on the Plunge in Hong Kong s GDP Growth and Prospects
More informationForecast for China. (Annual percentage changes unless specified)
China Highlights Jitters in China's banking sector have hit again, with short-term lending rates spiking up and prompting the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to provide liquidity to the market. But the PBOC
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast October 6, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationQ HK$billion Total exports. Feb HK$billion Private Consumption Expenditure. HK$billion Q Dec 2010 Feb 2011 %
PROPERTY INSIGHTS Hong Kong Quarter 1, 2011 Market Overview Hong Kong s real GDP increased by 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q4, whereas the growth is primarily driven by merchandise trading and financial
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number
More informationSouth Korea. Highlights. Forecast for Korea. 29 Jan 2014
South Korea Highlights GDP surprised on the upside again in Q4 213, growing.9% on the quarter, giving full-year growth of 2.8%. But we still believe that momentum in the economy is not as strong as the
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
21 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Recession looms for some emerging economies Several major emerging economies struggling with domestically-induced problems are now in, or flirting
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
1 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Forecasts eased down again as trade remains sluggish We have cut our forecast for China again following weak growth in Q1. We now expect the
More informationChina Economic Outlook 2013
China Economic Outlook 2 Key Developments in Brief - Mild recovery of GDP growth: +8 8.5% - Construction and consumption as main drivers - Inflationary pressure to increase: +3% - Tight labor market and
More informationINFINUM PARTNERS. China. September 2015
INFINUM PARTNERS China September 2015 A member of the JD-Infinum Group Rue du Conseil-Général 3-5 CH - 1205 Geneva info@infinum-partners.com Tel + 41 22 316 01 01 Fax + 41 22 316 01 02 www.infinum-partners.com
More informationForecast for Malaysia
Country Economic Forecast Highlights The n economy posted healthy growth in Q 21, despite the plunge in oil prices and heightened market volatility. When it comes to separating the winners and losers from
More informationHKU Announced 2011 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG Enquiry: 2859 1106 Website: http://www.hku.hk/cpao For Immediate Release HKU Announced 2011 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Economic Outlook
More informationThailand. Highlights and Key Issues. Forecast for Thailand
Highlights and Key Issues GDP expanded by 11% on the quarter in Q1 in seasonally adjusted terms, recovering strongly after contracting by more than 1% on the same basis in Q4 when flooding decimated the
More informationHKU announces 2014 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release October 8, 2014 HKU announces 2014 Q4 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Hong Kong Economic Outlook The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the
More informationCountry Economic Forecast Eurozone
12 Jul 217 Country Economic Forecast Eurozone Economist Ben May Lead Eurozone Economist +44 ()2 391 815 GDP growth forecast for 217 revised up again to 2.2%... The Eurozone recovery has continued to go
More informationJapan Chart Book. 5 February 2014
Japan Chart Book 5 February Japan: Economic Forecast Dashboard Forecast highlights Real GDP growth forecast at. in and. in 5 Slower consumption in -5 but offset by improved exports and investment Gradual
More informationChina Economic Update Q1 2015
Key Developments in Brief Economic development Growth drivers Risks GDP growth slows to 7. Slowdown challenging, but manageable More easing policies expected Reforms progressing slowly Services and retail
More informationQuarterly Economic Monitor
Overview of Quarterly Economic Monitor December 214 Queenstown s economy boomed during 214, with ' provisional estimate of GDP showing that the Queenstown-Lakes District economy grew by 4.5% over the year
More informationASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack
ASIAN ECONOMIES Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Amy Auster Senior Economist Melbourne 2 May 25 E-mail: austera@anz.com Internet: http://www.anz.com/go/economics 1 Major revisions to
More informationForecast for Eurozone. (Annual percentage changes unless specified)
4 Mar Country Economic Forecast Eurozone Highlights Research Recent data have presented conflicting signs on the likely path of Eurozone GDP growth in the early stages of. We have left our forecast for
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationNorthern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts
2017 Quarter 1 Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts Forecast summary The Northern Ireland economy enjoyed a solid performance in 2016 with overall growth of 1.5%, the strongest rate of growth
More informationEconomics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates
Economics Hong Kong chart book HKD rates are sensitive to rising USD rates Group Research 11 October 218 Samuel Tse Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +6 6878281 violetleeyh@dbs.com
More informationKey Insights. China Macro Pulse
MACRO REPORT China Economy Update March 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Qinwei Wang Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Economic Conditions: China s macro
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationUpside Risk to Inflation and Downside Risk to Growth
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com July 28 Upside Risk to Inflation and Downside Risk to Growth The economic landscape has changed significantly
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationThe Hong Kong Economy in Contraction Mode
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com 22 December 08 The Hong Kong Economy in Contraction Mode Hong Kong is in recession and leading economic
More informationInflation Outlook and Monetary Easing
Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Inflation Outlook and Monetary Easing Although annual consumer price inflation rose for a second consecutive month in July, the underlying trend
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationAddressing Three Questions About The Hong Kong Economy
Ryan Lam, CFA Senior Economist ryancwlam@hangseng.com Addressing Three Questions About The Hong Kong Economy In this note, we address what we believe are some of the most important questions in assessing
More informationMarket volatility to continue
How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?
More informationECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2015-16 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong increased 2.8 percent
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
More information> Macro Investment Outlook
> Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationHong Kong First Quarter GDP Preview Nearing Full Capacity and a Wary Inflation Outlook
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com May 11 Hong Kong First Quarter GDP Preview Nearing Full Capacity and a Wary Inflation Outlook The Hong
More informationGrowth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy
Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy 1. Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy The Thai economy expanded by slightly less than the previous projection due to weaker-than-anticipated
More informationViet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20
Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationIndian Economy. Industrial output grew highest in four months in June 2015 but volatility continued
Indian Economy Industrial Production Industrial output grew highest in four months in June 2015 but volatility continued After a slowdown in May 2015, industrial production grew by 3.8% during the month
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More informationIreland. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands
EY Forecast June 2015 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Rising domestic demand improves prospects for 2015 Published in collaboration with Highlights The Irish economy grew by 4.8% last year, which was
More informationSvein Gjedrem: Interest rates, the exchange rate and the outlook for the Norwegian economy
Svein Gjedrem: Interest rates, the exchange rate and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to the Mid-Norway Chamber of Commerce
More informationWorld Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009
World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November 2009 Press Launch November 4, 2009 overview The Thai economy is rebounding from a rocky first half of 2009, but the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The Thai
More informationReal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Hong Kong increased 0.9 percent in the first half
Economic Prospects of Hong Kong in 2012-13 Win Lin Chou, City University of Hong Kong Prepared for United Nations Project LINK Meeting in New York, October 22-24, 2012 I. The Current Trends Real Gross
More informationExport Group Meeting on the Contribution and Effective Use of External Resources for Development, in Particular for Productive Capacity Building
Export Group Meeting on the Contribution and Effective Use of External Resources for Development, in Particular for Productive Capacity Building 22-24 February 21 Debt Sustainability and the Implications
More informationForecast on the Preliminary Quarterly Estimates of GDP. for the Jul-Sep Quarter of 2004
(Translation) Forecast on the Preliminary Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the Jul-Sep Quarter of 2004 October 29, 2004 On November 12 th, 2004 (Friday), the Cabinet Office will release the Preliminary Quarterly
More informationCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION JUNE 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA JUNE 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECASTS ON
More informationASF Hong Kong Market Report
HONG KONG ECONOMY ASF 2016 - Hong Kong Market Report Background As everyone knows, Hong Kong has a very good geographic location, it is surround by sea and backup by a huge China market. HK has taken a
More information26 Nov Executive Summary. Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling
Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling +6565311517 hillaryho@phillip.com.sg Executive Summary United States: We maintain our stance that QE2 will not make a huge difference to economic conditions. Growth will continue
More informationBANK OF FINLAND ARTICLES ON THE ECONOMY
BANK OF FINLAND ARTICLES ON THE ECONOMY Table of Contents Global economy to grow steadily 3 FORECAST FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Global economy to grow steadily TODAY 1:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 1/2017
More informationHong Kong Economy: Recovering from Recession?
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com September 29 Hong Kong Economy: Recovering from Recession? Hong Kong staged a strong rebound in the second
More informationEconomic Projections :1
Economic Projections 2017-2020 2018:1 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to
More information2012 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad
N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H 212 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad December 211 Paul L. Kasriel, Chief Economist PH: 312..15 plk1@ntrs.com
More informationIndia. Country Economic Forecast. Highlights. Forecast for India * 12 Jun 2014
Country Economic Forecast Highlights s electorate delivered a clear verdict in the general elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 282 seats of 543 in the lower house of parliament, comfortably
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationChina, P.R.: Hong Kong SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS Nov. 30, 2015
www.seb.se/mb Our services > Research/Country analysis China, P.R.: Hong Kong SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS Nov. 30, 2015 Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92 E-mail :rolf.danielsen@seb.se
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Divergence in emergers monetary policy This year economic activity across the emergers has been subdued but inflation has generally remained moderate, allowing
More informationGlobal economic outlook: Are we headed for another global recession? Sarah Hunter Head of Americas macro consulting
Global economic outlook: Are we headed for another global recession? Sarah Hunter Head of Americas macro consulting shunter@oxfordeconomics.com 10 th March 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights Baseline
More informationFed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates
Fed monetary policy amid a global backdrop of negative interest rates Kathy Bostjancic Head of US Macro Investor Services kathybostjancic@oxfordeconomics.com April 2016 Oxford Economics forecast highlights
More informationEconomic ProjEctions for
Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationEconomic projections
Economic projections 2017-2020 December 2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The pace of economic activity in Malta has picked up in 2017. The Central Bank s latest economic
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationOther similar crisis: Euro, Emerging Markets
Session 15. Understanding Macroeconomic Crises. Mexican Crisis 1994-95 Other similar crisis: Euro, Emerging Markets Global Scenarios 2017-2021 The Mexican Peso Crisis in 1994: Background An economy that
More informationEUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017
EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political
More informationPresentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya
Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya August 6, 2015 Outline 1. The Information basis for the MPC meeting 2.
More informationMonthly Economic Report
Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were
More informationChina Economic Quarterly
August 2016 Major economic indicators p1 /Policy updates p5 /Hot topic analysis p6 China Economic Quarterly www.pwccn.com/ceq Content I. Major economic indicators 1 II. Policy updates 5 III. Hot topic
More informationPRESENTATION BY PROF. E. TUMUSIIME-MUTEBILE, GOVERNOR, BANK OF UGANDA, TO THE NRM RETREAT, KYANKWANZI, JANUARY
BANK OF UGANDA PRESENTATION BY PROF. E. TUMUSIIME-MUTEBILE, GOVERNOR, BANK OF UGANDA, TO THE NRM RETREAT, KYANKWANZI, JANUARY 19, 2012 MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES Introduction I want to
More informationAsia Bond Monitor June 2018
September 8 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Japan s industrial production fell.% on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis but rose.% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in
More informationCREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT
CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics May 21 (March 21 Data) Highlights During March, credit unions picked-up 423, in new memberships, and loan and savings balances grew at a.5% and 5.7%
More informationEurozone Economic Watch
BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by
More informationAsia Bond Monitor November 2018
7 December 8 Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets T he monetary board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decided to keep its key policy rates steady during its final meeting for the year on
More informationFinland falling further behind euro area growth
BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,
More informationWhat is Monetary Policy?
What is Monetary Policy? Monetary stability means stable prices and confidence in the currency. Stable prices are defined by the Government's inflation target, which the Bank seeks to meet through the
More information18. Real gross domestic product
18. Real gross domestic product 6 Percentage change from quarter to quarter 4 2-2 6 4 2-2 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 Total Non-agricultural sectors Seasonally adjusted and annualised rates South Africa s real
More informationECONOMY REPORT - CHINESE TAIPEI
ECONOMY REPORT - CHINESE TAIPEI (Extracted from 2001 Economic Outlook) REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT The Chinese Taipei economy grew strongly during the first three quarters of 2000, thanks largely to robust
More informationConsensus Forecasts. Real GDP Growth. NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows a softer growth outlook. Annual average % change
NZ Institute of Economic Research (Inc) Media release September Consensus Forecasts NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows a softer growth outlook The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts expects a slight downward
More informationOECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook
ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial
More informationThe Irish Economic Update Very Robust Growth
The Irish Economic Update Very Robust Growth September 15 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB April 13 aibeconomicresearch.com 1 Irish recovery gains very strong momentum Irish economy boomed from 1993 to
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of the current and expected
More informationSummary. Editor: Tristan Zhuo Senior Economist Phone:
Summary Editor: Tristan Zhuo Senior Economist Phone: +852 2826 6193 Email: tristanzhuo@bochk.com China s macro economy stabilized in May, and growth in the second quarter appears to be similar with the
More informationSlovenia. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands
EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Activity to remain solid this year, after growing 2.4% in 214 Published in collaboration with Highlights n GDP grew by 2.4% in 214 and 3% in Q1 215,
More informationEconomic Projections for
Economic Projections for 2015-2017 Article published in the Quarterly Review 2015:3, pp. 86-91 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2015-2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 The Bank s latest macroeconomic projections
More informationStructural changes in the Maltese economy
Structural changes in the Maltese economy Article published in the Annual Report 2014, pp. 72-76 BOX 4: STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE MALTESE ECONOMY 1 Since the global recession that took hold around the
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationEditor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017
Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017 Monday 2, 08.30 SWE: PMI Manufacturing (Sep) Index SEB Cons. Prev. PMI 60.5 -- 54.7 Manufacturing PMI showed an unexpectedly large fall in August.
More information