The Economic Impact of a Utility Rate Increase in 23 Mississippi Counties

Transcription

1 July 2015 The Economic Impact of a Utility Rate Increase in 23 Mississippi Counties Mississippi State Research Team Judith Phillips, M.B.A., ABD, Research Analyst Kayla Lee-Hopkins, M.P.P.A. John Harper, M.P.P.A. Dallas Breen, Ph.D., Assistant Director Philip (Eddie) French, Ph.D., Director

2 Mississippi State University Graduate Students The Stennis Institute of Government and Community Development at Mississippi State University employs Graduate Research Assistants enrolled at Mississippi State University to provide assistance to the Institute to conduct research and to work with Institute staff to conduct a broad scope of work. Funding received by the Stennis Institute is used to provide graduate students with tuition and graduate student stipends, thereby enabling them to pursue graduate level course work at Mississippi State University. These students make a significant and important contribution to all research conducted by the Stennis Institute. John Harper is from Braxton, Mississippi and graduated from Mendenhall High School in He earned an associate s degree in Business Administration from Copiah Lincoln Community College before transferring to Mississippi State University where he received a bachelor s degree in Political Science. John began his work as a Graduate Research Assistant at the Stennis Institute upon entering the master s degree program at Mississippi State University. He completed his master s degree in Public Policy and Administration program in John is currently pursuing a doctorate degree in Higher Education Leadership to prepare for a career in administration at a college or university. Kayla Lee Hopkins is originally from Brandon, MS and graduated from Northwest Rankin High school in She completed a bachelor s degree in Political Science from Mississippi State University and graduated summa cum laude. Kayla has been employed as a Graduate Research Assistant at the Stennis Institute since entering the master s degree program at Mississippi State University. Previously, she had been a student intern for the Department of Veterans Affairs in Jackson, Mississippi. Kayla completed her master s degree in Public Policy and Administration in Kayla is currently working on completing a doctoral degree at Mississippi State University and hopes to continue conducting research related to community and economic development at the state and local level upon completion of her Ph.D. THE SCOPE OF WORK PRESENTED IN THIS STUDY IS PROVIDED FOR THE BENEFIT OF DECISION MAKERS IN THE STATE OF MISSISSIPPI NO FUNDING WAS PROVIDED FROM ANY SOURCE EXTERNAL TO MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY.

3 Table of Contents Issue Statement... 5 The Context of Hurricane Katrina, the Great Recession, and the Deepwater Horizon Disaster... 9 Examination of the Impact of Electric Power Rate Increases in Twenty Three Mississippi Counties Business Establishments Employment Total Annual Wages Individual Income Tax Returns Average Annual Pay Review of the Findings Appendix A: Additional Reference Maps Appendix B: Comparing Retail Trade Sector Employment Change in 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties... LXI Appendix C: Data Used in this Study... LXXIV Index of Tables Table 1: Deepwater Horizon Economic and Property Damage Claims Table 2: Business Establishments and Employment in Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties as Compared to the State of Mississippi Table 3: 15 Mississippi Counties with Greatest Increase in Business Establishments 2012 to Table 4: 15 Mississippi Counties with the Highest Percentage Increase in Business Establishments 2012 to Table 5: Number of Counties that Exhibited an Increase or Decline in the Number of Business Establishments over the Period from 2012 to Table 6: Comparison of Counties with Employment Growth 2012 to Table 7: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Increase in Total Employment from 2012 to Table 8: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Percentage Rate Decline in Employment 2012 to Table 9: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Percentage Rate Increase in Employment 2012 to Table 10: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Highest Increase in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to Table 11: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Decline in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to Table 12: The 19 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Percentage Decrease in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to Table 13: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Highest Percentage Rate of Increase in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to Table 14: Comparison of the Difference in the Percentage of Mississippi Power Counties and Non Mississippi Power Counties Experiencing Growth in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to Table 15: Number of In State Individual Income Tax Returns Filed 2006 through Table 16: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Lowest Increase or a Decline in Average Annual Pay 2012 to Table 17: The 15 Counties with the Greatest Increase in Average Annual Pay from 2012 to

4 Table 18: Encapsulation of Data Table 19: Employment in the Retail Trade Sector 2012 to LXVI Table 20: Change in Retail Trade Sector Employment in 23 Mississippi Power Counties 2012 to LXVII Table 21: Annual Percentage Change in Retail Trade Sector Employment for 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties 2001 through LXXI Index of Figures Figure 1: State of Mississippi Total Annual Employment All Industries 2004 through Figure 2: State of Mississippi Percent Change in Annual Employment from Prior Year 2004 through Figure 3: Total Business Establishments in the State of Mississippi 2004 through Figure 4: Percent Growth in Mississippi Business Establishments from Prior Year Figure 5: Employment in the Three Coastal Counties Impacted by Hurricane Katrina and the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill 2004 through Figure 6: Business Establishments in the Three Coastal Counties Impacted by Hurricane Katrina and the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill 2004 through Figure 7: Employment in Three Coast Counties for Selected Industry Sectors that are Major Employers 2004 through Figure 8: Total Business Establishments in Three Coastal Mississippi Counties 2004 through Figure 9: Change in the Number of Business Establishment 2004 to Figure 10: Percent Change in the Number of Business Establishments 2004 through Figure 11: Employment 2004 through Figure 12: Mississippi Employment Post Recession Figure 13: Total Wages (in $1,000) and Percent Change in Total Wages 2004 through Figure 14: Percent Share of Annual Wages Earned in Mississippi Power and Non Mississippi Power Counties 2004 to Figure 15: Mississippi Individual Income Tax Returns 2006 to Figure 16: Total Number of Individual Income Tax Returns Filed in the State of Mississippi 2006 through Figure 17: Comparison of Mississippi Power Company Counties and Non Mississippi Power Company Counties, Number of Personal Income Tax Returns Filed as a Percent of Total In State Returns Filed 2006 through Figure 18: Out of State Individual Income Tax Returns as a Percent of Total Returns 2006 through Figure 19: Statewide Change in Average Annual Pay 2004 to Figure 20: Change in Average Annual Pay in 23 Mississippi Power Counties and Non Mississippi Power Counties 2004 through Figure 21: Retail Trade Sector Employment in Mississippi Power Counties 2001 to LXII Figure 22: Percent Change in Retail Trade Sector Employment 2001 to LXIV Figure 23: Employment in the Retail Trade Sector in Mississippi Power Counties expressed as a Percent of Total Retail Trade Sector Employment Statewide 2001 to LXV Figure 24: Mississippi Power Counties with Retail Trade Sector Employment of 350 or Less in LXVIII Figure 25: Mississippi Power Counties with Retail Trade Sector Employment between 520 and 980 in LXVIII Figure 26: Mississippi Power Company Counties with Retail Trade Sector Employment between 1,180 and 2,830 in LXX Figure 27: Mississippi Power Company Counties with Retail Trade Sector Employment between 4,050 and 11,130 in LXX 2

5 Index of Maps Map 1: Hurricane Katrina Housing Damage, excerpted from Stennis Institute Report , July Map 2: Change in the Number of Business Establishments by County 2012 to Map 3: Change in Employment for Mississippi Counties 2012 to Map 4: Change in Total Annual Wages 2012 to Map 5: Change in Average Annual Pay from 2012 to 2014 by County Map 6: Number of Business Establishments by County LV Map 7: Employment by County LVI Map 8: Total Annual Wages by County LVII Map 9: Number of Personal Income Tax Returns Filed in 2014 by County... LVIII Map 10: Average Annual Pay by County LIX 3

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7 Issue Statement In the spring of 2009, members of the Mississippi Legislature and the Board of Supervisors of Kemper County requested the Stennis Institute to conduct a brief analysis of the impact of a proposed coal gasification facility in Kemper County (Kemper IGCC), Mississippi; the focus of this review was the specific impact of Kemper IGCC on the economy of Kemper County. The 2009 Stennis report projected that the investment (anticipated to be approximately $1.8 billion) in Kemper IGCC would generate approximately 536 direct, indirect, and induced full time equivalent jobs upon commencement of startup, but that the majority of the economic benefit of this investment would accrue to areas outside of Kemper County due to the relatively undeveloped business, housing, and retail infrastructure that existed within the county. The 2008 Baseload Act (MS Code ) allowed the Mississippi Public Service Commission to consider Mississippi Power Company s request for a rate increase to pay for a portion of pre completion expenditures as used and useful during the course of construction, even if the facility was not yet in service. The Institute s 2009 study did not take into account the potential economic impact that future rate increases might have in the 23 counties of Mississippi that are served by Mississippi Power Company. In 2010, the Mississippi Public Service Commission (PSC) issued a certificate of public convenience and necessity to authorize the acquisition, construction, and operation of an integrated coal gasification combined cycle electric generating plant in Kemper County, Mississippi (Kemper IGCC) by Mississippi Power Company. On December 17, 2010, headlines in the Meridian Star read Mississippi Power Breaks Ground on Kemper County IGCC Power Plant. Since 2010, there have been multiple intervening court actions and hearings regarding rate increases associated with Kemper IGCC and the decisions made by the Mississippi Public Service Commission. A full discussion of these legal actions is not the focus of this study; the following brief outline of important decisions by the Mississippi Public Service Commission and the courts is provided for context. On January 24, 2013, the Mississippi Power Company entered into a settlement agreement with the Mississippi Public Service Commission to establish the process for resolving matters regarding cost recovery for the Kemper IGCC plant. Pursuant to the terms of the settlement agreement, on March 5, 2013, the Mississippi Public Service Commission voted to approve a retail rate increase of 15 percent effective March 19, 2013 and an increase of an additional 3 percent to become effective January 1, 2014 (MPSC Rate Order). These rate increases were to be recorded as a regulatory liability for the purposes of mitigating customer rate increases after the Kemper IGCC plant was placed in service. The rate increase was anticipated to generate approximately $98 million in 2013 and approximately $156 million annually beginning in On March 21, 2013, a legal challenge to the 2013 MPSC Rate Order was filed with the Mississippi Supreme Court. On February 12, 2015, the Mississippi Supreme Court nullified the 2013 rate increase that had been approved by the Mississippi Public Service Commission and ordered the refund of rate increases back to customers. In June 11, 2015, the Mississippi Supreme Court denied a request by 5

8 Mississippi Power Company and the Mississippi Public Service Commission to reconsider its February (2015) ruling that invalidated the rate increases 1 Since the initial 2009 Stennis Institute study on the economic impact of Kemper IGCC on Kemper County, the completion of the plant has been delayed and the rate increases in the 23 Mississippi counties that are served by Mississippi Power Company have become immersed in legal challenges and become the subject of controversy. Specifically, there have been a multitude of reports in the media to indicate that the rate increase associated with the cost of constructing Kemper IGCC has had a significant detrimental impact on the 23 Mississippi counties that are served by Mississippi Power Company and that these rate increases may have resulted in the loss of up to 13,000 jobs; this subject matter was not examined in the 2009 Stennis Institute study, primarily because the amount of the rate increases was unknown at the time of the Institute s study and because the focus of the 2009 study was on Kemper County. Therefore, this study is designed to retrospectively examine the potential economic impact that the rate increase by Mississippi Power Company may have had on 23 counties in Mississippi over the period from 2012 (prior to the rate increase) through the end of 2014 when the full impact of the rate increase would be exhibited in economic data. The Public Policy Research Group at the Stennis Institute conducts studies and provides quantitative analysis for input into the policy decision making process in the state of Mississippi at the request of the Mississippi Legislature and other elected leaders; the Policy Research Group does not provide policy recommendations. This study takes no position on the decision of the Mississippi Public Service Commission to approve the Mississippi Power Company rate increase, nor does it take a position on the subsequent decision by the Mississippi Supreme Court to mandate the refund of these rate increases. The purpose of this study is to examine an issue that was not addressed in the Stennis Institute s 2009 study of what is currently known as Kemper IGCC. The specific purpose of this study is to examine change in major economic indicators business formation, employment, total annual wages, and average annual pay and to describe causal relationships that may exist between changes in these major economic indicators and the utility rate increase by Mississippi Power Company in the 23 Mississippi counties served by Mississippi Power Company. The Stennis Institute takes no policy position and makes no policy recommendations related to the analysis and findings presented in this study. 1 Miss. Supreme Court refuse to reconsider Kemper ruling, The Clarion Ledger, Clay Chandler June 11, refuses kemper rehearing/ /. Retrieved

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10 Figure 1: State of Mississippi Total Annual Employment All Industries 2004 through 2014 Figure 2: State of Mississippi Percent Change in Annual Employment from Prior Year 2004 through

11 The Context of Hurricane Katrina, the Great Recession, and the Deepwater Horizon Disaster The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (BLS QCEW) reports data for the total number of employees, the number of business establishments, average weekly wages, and total wages for all counties and states in the U.S.; BLS QCEW data may be further disaggregated by industry sector, the number of establishments based upon the number of employees, and the type of employer, i.e. public (federal, state, or local) and private sector. To examine total employment, the number of total establishments, and total annual wages the Stennis Institute queried the Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW database for all employees, all establishment sizes, and for all industries, by county for the state of Mississippi. Unless otherwise notated, the Institute used total annual average data for each year over the period from 2004 through 2014 from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages to conduct the analysis contained in this report. In 2014, total employment in the state of Mississippi was 1,102,296; of this amount, employment totaling 1,060,756 was defined by county (96.2 percent of total employment) and employment of 41,540 was undefined by county (3.8 percent of total employment). Over the ten year period from 2004 through 2014, total employment in the state of Mississippi increased by 982; this slow increase in employment may generally be attributed to the continuing effects of the Great Recession. The Great Recession was triggered by a subprime mortgage crisis, the bursting of an $8 trillion dollar housing bubble, and the collapse of U.S. mortgage backed securities that resulted in the U.S. financial crisis. The Great Recession officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009; because the BLS QCEW data is reported for January through December for each calendar year, 2008 is the year which begins to capture the effect of the Great Recession. From 2008 to 2009, the U.S. lost approximately 8.4 million jobs or 6.1 percent of total payroll employment; by comparison, during the recession of 1981, job loss was only 3.1 percent. The increase in unemployment associated with the Great Recession was the largest increase associated with any U.S. recession in 70 years. Since the technical end of the Great Recession in 2009, U.S. economic recovery and growth has continued to be sluggish and job growth has been insufficient to maintain pace with normal population growth. Job shortages, unemployment and underemployment, and the absence of growth producing business investment has resulted in falling incomes and rising poverty rates in the United States. Over the period from 2007 to 2009, the net worth of U.S. households fell by approximately 22 percent in the United States. As recently as May 2015, economists have downgraded annual U.S. economic growth forecasts and the U.S. Department of Labor estimated that 10.8 percent of the U.S. labor force was working part time because they could not find full time jobs. Following the onset of the Great Recession, total employment in Mississippi decreased by 5,993 from 2007 to 2008; this employment decline continued with the loss of 49,956 jobs from 2008 to 2009, and a subsequent employment decrease of 6,521 from 2009 to Over the 3 year period from 2008 through 2010, total employment in the state of Mississippi declined by 60,716; of this amount, employment loss of 56,952 is delineated by specific counties and the balance is undefined by county in the BLS QCEW data. Within the context of the effects of the Great Recession, the economy of the state of Mississippi was also impacted by Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in Mississippi on August 29, 2005 and the April 20, 2010 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig and subsequent oil spill; 9

12 Map 1: Hurricane Katrina Housing Damage, excerpted from Stennis Institute Report , July

13 these two disasters introduce additional confounding economic impacts exogenous to those of the Great Recession when examining the economy of the state of Mississippi, and this is specifically true for the economies of the counties in southeast Mississippi. A 2006 study conducted by the Stennis Institute for the Mississippi Legislature found that there were 220,384 housing units in the state of Mississippi that were damaged by Katrina; of these, 157,914 damaged units were owner occupied and 62,470 were renter occupied. In Mississippi, 32.7 percent (51,641 homeowners) of all homeowners who experienced Katrina damage to their homes were uninsured and were not eligible for participation in the initial rounds of Katrina related Homeowner Grant Programs. A subsequent 2007 study 2 conducted by the Stennis Institute found that two years after Hurricane Katrina, the six coastal counties of Mississippi (Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Pearl River, Stone, and George) were continuing to struggle to recover from the impact of Katrina; although expenditures related to the rebuilding and recovery of coastal Mississippi temporarily inflated employment and gross sales in the surviving business establishments, issues associated with the increasing costs of building materials, more stringent building and elevation codes, increased insurance costs, labor shortages, and escalating labor costs continued to hamper the recovery of Mississippi s coastal counties. This study also predicted that the softening of the U.S. housing market and the significant glut in the condominium market across the southern coastal areas of the U.S. might lead to a collapse of both the condominium market in the coastal areas and an unprecedented default in the sub prime mortgage market, further exacerbating the challenges associated with rebuilding the coastal counties of Mississippi. The Stennis Institute s July 2007 study of the six coastal counties of Mississippi indicated an economy struggling to recover within the shadow of a portending recession; within five months, the $8 trillion dollar housing bubble burst, precipitating the Great Recession of A subsequent 2008 Stennis Institute study of the continuing impact of Katrina found that as of March 2008, an estimated 41,806 persons remained displaced from the three coastal counties of Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson. Just as the coastal counties began to exhibit signs of increasing recovery from Katrina, the Great Recession hit the U.S. and global economy. As Mississippi struggled to recover from the economic devastation of the Great Recession and the coastal counties of Mississippi continued to struggle to recover from the impact of both Hurricane Katrina and the Great Recession, the April 20, 2010 explosion and fires aboard the Deepwater Horizon oil rig and subsequent oil spill wrought further damage to these struggling economies. Due to the severe impact of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on specific areas of Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties, causation for damage claimants was presumed in Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties Economic Loss Zones that stretched from the coastline north to U.S. Highway 90; in Economic Loss Zones that stretched from U.S. Highway 90 north to Interstate 10, claimants had to demonstrate proof of their loss. The range of economic damage from the Deepwater Horizon included a vast array of financial loss, including: 3 damages suffered by commercial fisherman, seafood crews, seafood vessel owners, seafood retailers (including restaurants)/processors/wholesalers/distributors, and owners of charter boats 2 Phillips, J., Collins, B., and A. Fielder (2007). The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina: Coastal Mississippi Two Years Later. Report ; July Public Statistics for the Deepwater Horizon Economic and Property Damages Settlement, June 30,

14 Figure 3: Total Business Establishments in the State of Mississippi 2004 through 2014 Figure 4: Percent Growth in Mississippi Business Establishments from Prior Year 12

15 damages to coastal real property or boat slips, including losses suffered by sellers of residential property who sold their properties at lower prices as a result of the Deepwater Horizon incident damages to individuals and entities who owned wetlands real property damages and economic loss to individuals, businesses, start up businesses, or failed businesses The deadline for filing Economic and Property Damages was June 8, 2015; although Patrick Juneau, the Claims Administrator for the Deepwater Horizon Economic and Property Damages Settlement began issuing payments on July 31, 2012, the process for recovering economic and property damages has been delayed due to multiple legal and court actions. As shown in Table 1, below, there were approximately 370,899 total economic and property damage claims filed in the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, and Texas; of these, 44,178 were filed for damages to businesses and individuals in the state of Mississippi. In the five states, 91,778 claimants had received settlement payments totaling $5,396,293,826; this indicates that approximately 75 percent of the total 370,899 claimants had not received payments for economic or property damages as of June In addition to the economic impact of the Deepwater Horizon, the subsequent closure of 86,985 square miles of coastal waters of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana to fishing and the federal moratoria on off shore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico issued on April 30, 2010 further contributed to business interruption, loss of profits, and declines in employment and related earnings in fishing and related industries, in the Table 1: Deepwater Horizon Economic and Property Damage Claims Deepwater Horizon Economic & Property Damage Claims as of June 30, 2015 Claim Type Form Begun Form Submitted oil and gas industry, and in industry sectors that provide support services to the oil and gas industry. Extant research on the economic impact of the Deepwater Horizon and its lasting impact on the coastal counties of Mississippi provides an array of mixed findings; some studies indicate that the decline in tourism and related spending was offset by spending associated with oil spill recovery workers; other studies attribute all negative economic effects to the impact of the Deepwater Horizon while neglecting the confounding effects of the Great Recession or Hurricane Katrina on the coastal counties of Mississippi. A study conducted by Oxford Economics found that employment in the Accommodation Sector declined by five percent as a result of the adverse impact of the oil spill on tourism and reported Total Percent of Claims Seafood Compensation Program ,847 25, % Individual Economic Loss 8,333 59,639 67, % Individual Periodic Vendor or Festival Vendor Economic Loss % Business Economic Loss 2, , , % Start Up Business Economic Loss 291 7,095 7, % Failed Business Economic Loss 277 5,034 5, % Coastal Real Property ,914 41, % Wetlands Real Property ,205 25, % Real Property Sales 244 2,033 2, % Subsistence ,662 53, % VoO Charter Payment 84 8,883 8, % Vessel Physical Damage 80 1,530 1, % Total 14, , , % Source: Deepwater Horizon Claims Center, Economic & Property Damage Claims as of June 30, Deepwater Horizon Claims Center, Economic & Property Damage Claims as of June 30, Retrieved

16 that average wages in the coastal counties of Mississippi experienced a 1.5 percent decline in A 2010 study conducted by the University of Southern Mississippi found that gaming revenue and casino hotels experienced no negative impact from the oil spill, but that direct and indirect revenue losses in the tourism and restaurant sector were approximately $119.4 million in the four months of May through August in 2010 and that revenue for non casino hotels in May 2010 had declined by 50 percent Figure 5: Employment in the Three Coastal Counties Impacted by Hurricane Katrina as compared to the same period and the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill 2004 through 2014 in 2009, equating to a $26.9 million loss in direct revenue. 6 A comprehensive study of the differential impacts of Hurricane Katrina, the Great Recession, and the Deepwater Horizon disaster is beyond the scope and purpose of this report; however, because Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties are contained within the service area of the Mississippi Power Company, the compounding effects of Hurricane Katrina, the Great Recession, the Deepwater Horizon, moratoriums on fishing and offshore drilling, and delays in the payment of Deepwater Figure 6: Business Establishments in the Three Coastal Counties Impacted by Hurricane Katrina and the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill 2004 through 2014 Horizon Business and Economic Loss claims must be considered when analyzing employment, business growth, and income within the counties served by Mississippi 5 Oxford Economics (21 July 2010). Potential Impact of the Gulf Oil Spill on Tourism (PDF). Retrieved Butler, D., Sayre, E. (14 June 2010). Economic Impact of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on South Mississippi: Initial Findings on Revenue. Retrieved

17 Power Company. Although there are a multitude of macro and micro economic factors that impact economic change, the relatively simple disaggregation of the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the three coastal counties of Mississippi can be achieved by examining the change in employment and the change in the number of business establishments over the two year period from 2004 (pre Katrina) to 2006 (post Katrina). The lingering impact of this disaster through 2014 in terms of population migration, increased construction costs associated with more stringent building codes and steeply escalated property insurance costs has not been the subject of any recent studies; the interrelated effects of the Great Recession and the Deepwater Horizon disaster are far more complex and no attempt is made in the following section of this study to disaggregate the economic effects of these events. From 2004 (pre Katrina) to 2006 (post Katrina), Hancock and Harrison counties lost a total of 308 business establishments and employment in these two counties declined by 12,167 (Figure 5 and Figure 6 on page 14); the number of business establishments and employment in Jackson County appear to have been relatively unaffected by Katrina. As previously discussed, the coastal counties of Mississippi were still in recovery from the impact of Katrina when the Great Recession commenced at the end of 2007; however, the data indicate that employment and business growth was well on the way to recovery when the recession hit. By 2007, employment in Hancock and Jackson counties exceeded pre Katrina levels in 2004 and 2005; by 2007, employment in Harrison County was almost at the level it was in 2005, but still remained almost four percent lower than it had been in 2004 (Figure 5, page 14). Employment in Harrison County has never returned to its pre Katrina level of 89,631 in In terms of the number of business establishments, a slightly different pattern emerges for each of the coastal counties: In Jackson County, the number of business establishments continued to increase over the period from 2004 through 2007; this increase continued through 2008 until 2009 when the number of business establishments began to decline. This indicates that Jackson County s economy remained relatively immune from the impact of Katrina and during the early years of the recession until Over the period from 2009 through 2012, the number of business establishments in Jackson County decreased by 110 establishments (a decline of approximately 4.4 percent); during this time period, employment in Jackson County declined by 2,884, a decrease of approximately 5.7 percent (Table 2 page 17). In Hancock County, the number of business establishments was exhibiting recovery from the impact of Katrina prior to the advent of the recession and remained resilient to recessionary impacts through From 2004 to 2006, Hancock County lost 87 business establishments (a decrease of 10.6 percent); from 2006 to 2007, the number of establishments increased by 51 and then increased again over the period from 2007 to 2008 by 54 establishments (Figure 5 and Figure 6 on page 14). Over the period from 2009 through 2012, the number of business establishments in Hancock County declined by 42 establishments and related employment decreased by 412 (Table 2, page 17). In Harrison County, the number of business establishments declined by 221 from 2004 to 2006; by 2007, the number of business establishments was only 1.4 percent lower than prior to Hurricane Katrina. Over the one year period from 2006 to 2007, Harrison County had recaptured 6,882 jobs, but employment in 2007 was still 3,508 lower than it had been prior to Katrina in 2004 (Figure 5, page 14). Business establishments in Harrison County remained resilient to the Great Depression through 2008 and 2009; however, from 2009 through 2012, there was a decline of 184 business 15

18 Figure 7: Employment in Three Coast Counties for Selected Industry Sectors that are Major Employers 2004 through

19 establishments (Table 2, below). Although the number of business establishments in Harrison County continued to increase through 2008 and 2009, employment decreased by approximately 3 percent from 2008 to 2009, followed by a decrease of approximately 2 percent from 2009 to The previous paragraphs demonstrate the variation in the effect that disasters and the Great Recession have had on each of the three coastal county s economy at the local level, with Jackson County exhibiting a striking resilience to the impact of Hurricane Katrina while exhibiting greater susceptibility to the impact of the Great Recession, as demonstrated by a higher percentage rate of decline in the number of business establishments and a greater percentage rate decline in employment when compared to either Hancock or Harrison counties (Table 2, below); this held true for the period from 2009 to 2012 and for the entire period from 2008 through Pertinent to the subject of this study, and the impact of the Mississippi Power Company rate increase that was implemented in 2013 and continued through 2014, a comparison of the change in the number of business establishments and employment in Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties from 2012 to 2014 provides no evidence to Table 2: Business Establishments and Employment in Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties as Compared to the State of Mississippi State of Mississippi Employment and Business Establishments for Selected Periods from 2004 to 2014 Focus on the Three Coastal Counties Impacted by Hurricane Katrina and the Deepwater Horizon Disaster Percent Percent Percent Percent Change Change Change Change Change Change Change Change 2004 to 2009 to 2008 to 2012 to 2004 to 2009 to 2008 to 2012 to Number of Business Establishments Hancock Business Establishments % % % % Harrison County Business Establishments % % % % Jackson County Business Establishments % % % % Total for Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties % % % % Balance for State of Mississippi Excluding Establishments Undefined by County and Excluding Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties 1, % 1, % 1, % % Total for State (all Counties) Including Establishments Undefined by County 2, % 1, % % 2, % Total Employment for All Industries Hancock County Employment 1, % % % % Harrison County Employment 10, % 1, % 3, % % Jackson County Employment 1, % 2, % 2, % 1, % Total Employment Hancock, Harrison and Jackson Counties 10, % 4, % 6, % 1, % Balance of Mississippi Excluding Employment Undefined by County and Excluding Employment in 21, % 11, % 12, % 9, % Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties Total for State of Mississippi (all Counties) including Employment Undefined by County 16, % 4, % 28, % 16, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: Annual Averages for All Industries, Total Covered Employment, All Establishment Sizes 17

20 to support a finding that these rate increases detrimentally impacted economic growth in these three counties. As shown in Figure 6 on page 14 and in Figure 8, below, an increase in the number of business establishments in all three of the coastal counties occurred during the period from 2012 to 2013 and then continued through 2014; over the period, the percentage rate of change in the number of business establishments was positive across all three counties although the rate of increase varied by county from a high of 5.5 percent in Hancock County to a low of 0.59 percent in Jackson County (Table 2, page 17). The average percentage rate of increase in the number of business establishments in Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties was 1.79 percent over the period from 2012 to 2014; this exceeded the average percentage rate of growth of 1.20 percent in the balance of the other 79 counties in the state of Mississippi (excluding the change in the number of business establishments which are undefined by county in the BLS QCEW data). 7 From 2012 to 2014, the total number of business establishments increased by 790 across all 82 counties; over the same period, the number of business establishments in Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties increased by 135; this represented approximately 17 percent of the total statewide increase in business establishments (defined by county of location) from 2012 to The increase in the number of business establishments in the three coastal counties of Mississippi over the period from 2012 to 2014 may be an early indicator of recovery from the impact of the Great Recession, but would not support the finding of a potential loss that might be associated with a rate increase by Mississippi Power Company. Figure 8: Total Business Establishments in Three Coastal Mississippi Counties 2004 through Author s note: As shown in Figure 3 on page 12, the number of business establishments that are undefined as to the county where they are located increased from 4,810 to 8,427 (from 7.3 percent to 11.8 percent of total business establishments) and the percentage rate of undefined establishments increased at a significantly higher rate (23.6 percent) when compared to the growth rate of business establishments (1.27 percent) that were defined by county in the BLS QCEW data. Although these undefined establishments may be distributed approximately equivalent to the percentage rate of total business establishments located in each county expressed as a percentage rate of the total number of business establishments in the state and adjustments could have been made to the data to reflect this possible distribution of undefined establishments, doing so would have skewed the findings for the increase in the number of establishments in Harrison and Jackson counties upwards because these two counties represent a significantly higher percentage (7.09 percent and 3.80 percent, respectively) of the total business establishments in the state. Because the true distribution of these undefined business establishments by county cannot be accurately verified, business establishments undefined by county are reported separately in this study. 18

21 Examination of the Impact of Electric Power Rate Increases in Twenty Three Mississippi Counties To examine the potential impact of the Mississippi Power Company rate increase on employment, business formation, and wages, the Stennis Institute used data the from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (BLS QCEW) as previously described. Unless otherwise cited, the discussion in the following section of this report is sourced from BLS QCEW data for the period from 2004 through To conduct this analysis, the BLS QCEW data for annual total employment, the number of business establishments, and total annual wages for the twenty three counties that are served by Mississippi Power Company and were subject to a 15 percent rate increase that went into effect in April of 2013 and a 3 percent rate increase that went into effect in January of 2014 was disaggregated from the data for the remaining 59 counties in the state of Mississippi; the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company are defined as Mississippi Power (Company) Counties and the 59 counties that are served by other utility companies are defined as Non Mississippi Power (Company) Counties. For purposes of analysis, only data that is defined by county is included in the examination of employment, business formation, and total annual wages that is described in the following section of this study; Figure 1 on page 8 and Figure 3 on page 12 provide data for total employment and the number of business establishments in the state of Mississippi that were undefined by county in the state of Mississippi over the period from 2004 through Business Establishments Over the period from 2012 to 2014, 44 counties (53 percent of the 82 counties) in the state of Mississippi exhibited an increase in the number of business establishments, two counties exhibited no change in the number of establishments and the balance of the counties experienced a decline in the number of business establishments. Over the period from 2012 to 2014, the mean change in the number of business establishments in the state of Mississippi across all 82 counties was 10 with a standard deviation of ± 39 and the median change was 1. Over the period from 2012 to 2014, Pike and Hinds counties experienced the greatest decline in the number of establishments, with a loss of 28 and 27 business establishments, respectively. Although the loss of 27 establishments in Hinds County represented a decrease of only 0.45 percent in the total number of establishments, the loss of 28 establishments in Pike County represented a decline of 2.7 percent in the number of establishments illustrating that even relatively small declines in the number of establishments can represent a significant percentage decrease in smaller local economies. Among the 44 counties that exhibited an increase in the number of business Table 3: 15 Mississippi Counties with Greatest Increase in Business Establishments 2012 to 2014 Rank County Change 2012 to Rankin 3,582 3, Madison 2,995 3, Desoto 2,534 2, Harrison 4,374 4, Lafayette 1,104 1, Lamar 1,304 1, Hancock Pontotoc Lee 2,412 2, Alcorn Coahoma Yazoo Tippah Jackson 2,370 2, Clay Source: U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics QCEW establishments over the period from 2012 to 2014, Rankin and Madison counties exhibited the greatest increase in the number of business establishments, with an increase of 208 and 188 establishments, 19

22 Change in the Number of Business Establishments by County 2012 to 2014 Percent Change in the Number of Business Establishments by County 2012 to 2014 Change in Number of Establishments Adams Wilkinson -1 Franklin Bolivar Washington -18 Issaquena 1 Sharkey -5-2 Claiborne -3 Jefferson -3 2 Warren -20 Amite Coahoma -14 Sunflower -15 Humphreys Tunica Hinds -27 Copiah 9 Lincoln -1 Yazoo 17 Pike Quitman Tallahatchie Leflore DeSoto Holmes -10 Walthall Tate Panola Carroll 1 Lawrence Statewide 2012 to 2014 Total Increase: 790 Establishments Mean Increase: 10 Establishments Median Increase: 1 Establishment Standard Deviation: 39 Establishments Greatest Loss of Establishments: 29 Greatest Increase of Establishments: Madison Rankin 208 Simpson 10 Marion Marshall Lafayette 58 Yalobusha Chickasaw -6 Calhoun Grenada Clay Webster Montgomery 11 Jeff Davis Attala -12 Leake 4 Scott -3 Smith 1 10 Covington 51 Lamar 2 Pearl River -22 Hancock 44 9 Newton Jasper Jones Forrest Benton -2 Choctaw Neshoba Stone Harrison 77 Tippah 15 Union Pontotoc Oktibbeha 10 Winston Perry Lee Kemper Clarke Wayne Greene Jackson 14 Alcorn Monroe Noxubee 2 Lauderdale George 10 Prentiss 11 Itawamba Lowndes Tishomingo Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Percent Change in Number of Establishments DeSoto Marshall Benton 4.4% Alcorn 6.8% 0.3% Tunica 0.0% -2.1% Tippah 2.9% Tate Tishomingo 1.4% -3.0% Prentiss Union -12.5% - 0.0% Panola Lafayette 2.3% 2.3% 0.1% - 0.3% -1.8% 5.3% 2.3% Lee Itawamba 0.3% - 3.9% Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc 1.1% 4.4% - 7.0% 2.7% -1.3% 6.3% Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar -1.4% -2.8% Calhoun 3.7% 0.1% Grenada -2.1% -1.7% -1.3% Clay Webster -2.0% Sunflower Montgomery 2.9% 4.9% Leflore Carroll -2.4% -4.6% Washington 3.1% 1.4% 0.0% Oktibbeha -1.4% Choctaw 1.1% Lowndes -6.7% Holmes Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys 0.3% -3.1% -4.3% -3.4% 1.1% Adams Wilkinson -0.6% Issaquena -12.5% Jefferson -3.4% Franklin 1.5% Sharkey -1.2% Warren -1.8% Claiborne -2.1% Amite -2.0% Hinds Yazoo 3.8% -0.5% Copiah 2.0% Lincoln -0.1% Pike -2.7% 6.3% Lawrence 2.1% -4.3% Walthall Madison Rankin 5.8% Simpson 2.3% Statewide Percentage Change 2012 to 2014 Mean Increase: 0.3% Median Increase: 0.2% Standard Deviation: 3.3% Greatest Loss of Establishments: -12.5% Greatest Increase of Establishments: 7.0% Map 2: Change in the Number of Business Establishments by County 2012 to % Jeff Davis Marion 0.2% Leake 1.3% Scott -0.6% Smith 0.5% 3.0% Covington 3.9% Lamar Pearl River -2.7% Hancock 5.5% Newton 2.0% Jasper Jones Forrest Neshoba 0.9% -2.0% -0.4% 0.2% Stone -2.0% Harrison 1.8% Perry -4.1% Kemper 1.4% Lauderdale -0.4% Clarke -3.3% Wayne 2.7% Greene 3.5% George 2.9% Jackson 0.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 20

23 respectively. Among the fifteen counties in the state of Mississippi that exhibited the highest increase in the number of business establishments over the period from 2012 to 2014, four were Mississippi Power Company Counties (Table 3, page 19). From 2012 to 2014, the total increase in the number of business establishments in the state of Mississippi was 790; this represented an increase of 1.27 percent in the number of business establishments. The mean percentage increase in the number of business establishments statewide from 2012 to 2014 was 0.3 percent with a standard deviation of ± 3.3 percent; the median percentage increase in the number of business establishments was 0.2 percent. The two Mississippi counties that experienced the highest percentage decrease in business establishments from 2012 to 2014 were Issaquena and Humphreys, with a decline of 12.5 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively (Map 2, page 20); the two counties that experienced the greatest percentage increase in business establishments were Jefferson Davis (a Mississippi Power County) and DeSoto, with an increase of 7.01 and 6.83 percent, respectively (Map 2, page 20). Among the 15 counties in the state of Mississippi that experienced the greatest percentage increase in the number of business establishments from 2012 to 2014, five were Mississippi Power Company counties (Table 4, above). Among the 23 Mississippi Power Counties, 15 counties exhibited an increase in the number of business establishments over the period from 2012 to 2014; this represented 65.2 percent of the Mississippi Power Counties (Table 5, below). Among the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties, 29 counties exhibited an increase in the number of business establishments over the period from 2012 to 2014; this represented 49.2 percent of the Non Mississippi Power Counties (Table 5, below). This indicates that a higher percentage of Mississippi Power Counties exhibited an increase in the number of business establishment over the period from 2012 to 2014 as compared to Non Mississippi Power Counties. Table 5: Number of Counties that Exhibited an Increase or Decline in the Number of Business Establishments over the Period from 2012 to 2014 Comparison of Growth in the Number of Business Establishments 2012 to 2014 Mississippi Power Counties Non Mississippi Power Counties Counties with Growth 15 Counties with Growth 29 Counties with No Growth or Decrease 8 Counties with No Growth or Decrease 30 Total Counties 23 Total 59 Percent of Counties with Growth 65.22% Percent of Counties with Growth 49.15% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Table 4: 15 Mississippi Counties with the Highest Percentage Increase in Business Establishments 2012 to 2014 Rank County Change 2012 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to Jefferson Davis % 2 Desoto 2,534 2, % 3 Pontotoc % 4 Madison 2,995 3, % 5 Rankin 3,582 3, % 6 Hancock % 7 Lafayette 1,104 1, % 8 Webster % 9 Tippah % 10 Lamar 1,304 1, % 11 Yazoo % 12 Calhoun % 13 Greene % 14 Carroll % 15 Covington % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW 21

24 Figure 9: Change in the Number of Business Establishment 2004 to 2014 Figure 10: Percent Change in the Number of Business Establishments 2004 through

25 Figure 9 and Figure 10 on page 22 provide perspective on the longitudinal change in the number of business establishments in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties and in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Company Counties over the period from 2004 through Over the period from 2008 through 2012, the combined loss in business establishments for the state was 2,210; of these, 933 business establishments were lost in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties, representing a decrease of 4.5 percent in the number of business establishments and 1,277 business establishments were lost in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties, representing a decrease of 2.9 percent in the number of business establishment. This indicates that the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties appear to have been more severely impacted over the post Great Recession period. Over the period from 2012 to 2014, prior to the Mississippi Power rate increase of 15 percent in 2013 and subsequent rate increase of 3 percent in 2014, the number of business establishments in all Mississippi counties increased by 790 establishments (Figure 9, page 22), representing an increase of 1.27 percent in the number of business establishments over the period. From 2012 to 2014, the number of business establishments in Mississippi Power Counties increased by 190 establishments, representing an increase of 0.96 percent; over the same period, the number of business establishments in Non Mississippi Power Counties increased by 600 establishments, representing an increase of 1.42 percent in the number of business establishments. Within the context of the statewide percentage mean increase of 0.3 percent and standard deviation of ± 3.3 percent in the number of business establishments across the 82 counties and based upon hypothesis testing for a difference between the mean change in the number of business establishments and the mean percentage change in the number of business establishments, no statistically significant difference was found in the growth rate in the number or percentage change in the number of business establishments across the 23 Mississippi Power Counties as compared to the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties. Closer examination of the annual change in the number of business establishments over the period from 2012 to 2014 indicates that from 2012 to 2013, the number of business establishments in the 82 counties of Mississippi increased by 692, representing an increase of 1.12 percent in the number of business establishments in the state. Over this one year period, the number of business establishments in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties increased by 156, an increase of 0.79 percent in the number of business establishments; over the same one year period, the number of business establishments in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties increased by 536 establishments, an increase of 1.27 percent (Figure 9 and Figure 10, page 22). When compared to the statewide increase in business establishments from 2012 to 2013, growth in the number of business establishments slowed statewide over the period from 2013 to 2014; during this period, the number of business establishments statewide increased by 98, representing an increase of 0.16 percent. Over the one year period from 2013 to 2014, the number of business establishments in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties increased by 34; this represented an increase of 0.17 percent (Figure 10, page 22). In the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties, the number of business establishments increased by 64 establishments over the period from 2013 to 2014; this represented an increase of 0.15 percent. Although the percentage rate of growth in the number of business establishments in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties exceeded the percent rate of growth in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties from 2013 to 2014, these differences are not statistically significant. From 2012 to 2013, the growth in the number of business establishments in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties represented 22.5 percent of the total statewide growth in the total number of business establishments and from 2013 to 2014, the growth in 23

26 Figure 11: Employment 2004 through

27 the number of business establishments in the Mississippi Power Company Counties represented 34.7 percent of the total statewide growth in the number of business establishments statewide. Employment In 2014, total employment in the state of Mississippi was 1,102,296 (Figure 1, page 8); of this amount, employment totaling 1,060,756 (Figure 11, page 24) was identified by county (96.2 percent of total employment) and employment of 41,540 was undefined by county (3.8 percent of total employment). As discussed in prior sections of this report, employment that is not defined and attributed to specific counties in the state of Mississippi cannot be included in the analysis of the impact that rate increases by Mississippi Power Company may have on employment because undefined employment cannot be accurately allocated to any specific county (see author s note on page 17); therefore, the discussion that follows excludes employment that is undefined by county. Over the ten year period from 2004 through 2014, total employment in the state of Mississippi increased by 982 (Figure 11, page 24); this represented an increase of 1.2 percent over the 10 year period. Since 2007, employment in the state of Mississippi has never recovered to pre Great Recession levels, declining from 1,092,967 in 2007 to a low of 1,036,015 over the period from 2007 to 2010, representing an employment loss of 55,706 jobs and a decline of 5.1 percent in employment (Figure 12, at right). Starting in 2012, employment statewide began to exhibit a slow recovery from recessionary impacts, increasing by 1.05 percent over the period from 2011 to 2012 and then continuing to increase over the period from 2012 to 2014, but at a rate of less than one percent per year. When employment data for the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties is disaggregated from the employment data for the 59 Non Mississippi Power Company Counties, a slightly different pattern emerges. From 2009 to 2010, the percentage rate of Figure 12: Mississippi Employment Post Recession decline in employment was more severe ( 1.30 percent) in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties than the decline in employment ( 0.35 percent) experienced in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties; in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties, employment decline continued over the period from 2010 to 2011 (a decrease of 0.91 percent) whereas, with an increase of 0.65 percent employment in the Non Mississippi Power Counties, these counties began to exhibit signs of recovery (Figure 11, page 24). Employment in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties first began to exhibit early signs of recovery from the recession over the period from 2011 to 2012, with an employment increase of 0.31 percent (an increase of 1,057 jobs), while employment in the Non Mississippi Power Counties continued to show employment increases from the prior period with a 1.42 percent increase in employment (an increase of 9,847 jobs) from 2011 to As shown in Figure 11 on page 24, the slope of the recovery curve for the Mississippi Power Counties is steeper than that of the Non Mississippi Power Counties over the period from 2011 to From 2012 to 2013, employment in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties increased by 1,477 jobs, an increase of

28 percent; over the same period, employment in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties increased by 4,264 jobs, an increase of 0.61 percent in employment. From 2013 to 2014, employment in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties increased by 1,804 jobs, an increase of 0.52 percent; during the same period, employment in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties increased by 5,046, an increase of 0.72 percent in employment. Over the period from 2012 (prior to the utility rate increase) to 2014, total employment in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties increased by 3,281 jobs, an increase of 0.94 percent in employment; over the same period, employment in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Company Counties increased by 9,310 jobs, an increase of 1.33 percent in employment. The difference of 0.38 percent between the percentage change in employment in the Mississippi Power Counties and the Non Mississippi Power Counties is not statistically significant and does not support a finding that the rate increase in the Mississippi Power Counties caused employment decline. Over the period of interest from 2012 to 2014, 50 percent of the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi experienced an increase in employment; among the 23 Mississippi Table 6: Comparison of Counties with Employment Growth 2012 to 2014 Comparison of Growth in Employment 2012 to 2014 Mississippi Power Counties Non Mississippi Power Counties Counties with Growth 14 Counties with Growth 27 Counties with Decrease 9 Counties with Decrease 32 Total 23 Total 59 Percent of Counties with Growth 60.87% Percent of Counties with Growth 45.76% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Power Counties, 60.9 percent of the counties experienced employment growth and among the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties, 45.8 percent experienced employment growth over the period (Table 6, above). Over the period from 2012 to 2014, the change in employment in the 82 counties of Mississippi ranged from a maximum employment increase of 4,112 in DeSoto County to a decline in employment of 1,499 in Tunica County. From 2012 to 2014, DeSoto and Madison counties exhibited the greatest increase in employment among the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi. Among the 15 counties in the state of Mississippi that exhibited the greatest increase in employment over the period from 2012 to 2014, there were five Mississippi Power Company Counties; these 15 counties experienced a total employment increase of 18,654 jobs over the period; total net employment for the entire state of Mississippi increased by 12,591 jobs. Table 7: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Increase in Total Employment from 2012 to 2014 Employment 2012 Employment 2014 Increase in Employment 2012 to 2014 Rank County 1 DeSoto 47,417 51,529 4,112 2 Madison 46,635 50,039 3,404 3 Rankin 55,848 58,805 2,957 4 Lafayette 18,952 20,275 1,323 5 Jackson 47,974 49,221 1,247 6 Forrest 36,604 37,701 1,097 7 Oktibbeha 18,357 19, Pontotoc 11,210 11, Scott 12,534 13, George 4,414 4, Kemper 3,244 3, Grenada 9,753 10, Itawamba 5,697 6, Lamar 17,590 17, Lincoln 10,938 11, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW 26

29 Over the period from 2012 to 2014, the percentage rate of change in employment for the 82 counties in Mississippi ranged from a maximum increase of 14.3 percent in Kemper County to an employment decline of 19.4 percent in Claiborne County. The statewide mean change in employment at the county level over the period from 2012 to 2014 was minus 0.20 percent with a standard deviation of ± 5.9 percent; the median change in employment was 0.00 percent. Among the 15 Mississippi counties that experienced the greatest decline in employment over the period from 2012 to 2014, there were two Mississippi Power Company Counties Clarke and Jasper these two counties exhibited a decrease in employment of 5.97 percent and 8.18 percent, respectively (Table 8, above). Among the 15 Mississippi counties that experienced the highest percentage rate of increase in the number of people employed over the period from 2012 to 2014, two counties George and Scott were Mississippi Power Company Counties (Table 9, at right); George County experienced the 2 nd highest percentage rate of growth in employment among the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi. Although not pertinent to the focus of this study, it is interesting to note that as compared to the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi, Kemper County the location of Mississippi Power Table 8: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Percentage Rate Decline in Employment 2012 to 2014 County County Employment 2012 Employment 2012 Employment 2014 Employment 2014 Change in Employment 2012 to 2014 Change in Employment 2012 to 2014 Percent Change in Employment 2012 to 2014 Calhoun 3,411 3,305 (106) 3.11% Lowndes 25,355 24,529 (826) 3.26% Webster 2,060 1,985 (75) 3.64% Lawrence 2,526 2,411 (115) 4.55% Carroll 1,169 1,106 (63) 5.39% Clarke 3,149 2,961 (188) 5.97% Quitman 1,238 1,163 (75) 6.06% Chickasaw 6,015 5,534 (481) 8.00% Yalobusha 3,246 2,984 (262) 8.07% Jasper 4,280 3,930 (350) 8.18% Tunica 11,312 9,813 (1,499) 13.25% Issaquena (37) 15.29% Humphreys 2,785 2,326 (459) 16.48% Wilkinson 2,066 1,718 (348) 16.84% Claiborne 4,116 3,318 (798) 19.39% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Table 9: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Percentage Rate Increase in Employment 2012 to 2014 Percent Change in Employment 2012 to 2014 Kemper 3,244 3, % George 4,414 4, % Tallahatchie 2,779 3, % Amite 1,601 1, % DeSoto 47,417 51,529 4, % Madison 46,635 50,039 3, % Lafayette 18,952 20,275 1, % Itawamba 5,697 6, % Pontotoc 11,210 11, % Rankin 55,848 58,805 2, % Tishomingo 5,222 5, % Scott 12,534 13, % Oktibbeha 18,357 19, % Tippah 5,646 5, % Yazoo 6,084 6, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Company s integrated coal gasification combined cycle electric generating plant (Kemper IGCC) experienced the greatest percentage rate of increase in total employment over the period from 2012 to

30 Change in Employment Adams Wilkinson -348 DeSoto Marshall Benton 268 Alcorn 4, Tunica Tippah Tate Tishomingo ,499 Prentiss Union Panola 76 Lafayette , Lee Itawamba Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar Calhoun Grenada -233 Clay Webster 134 Sunflower Montgomery Leflore Carroll -55 Washington Oktibbeha -305 Choctaw 870 Lowndes -459 Holmes Attala 62 Winston Noxubee Humphreys Issaquena Jefferson 52 Sharkey Claiborne -798 Franklin 16 Warren -220 Change in the Total Employment by County 2012 to 2014 Amite 162 Hinds Copiah -62 Lincoln 291 Yazoo 263-1,234 Pike 244 3,404 Lawrence Walthall Madison Rankin 2,957 Simpson Jeff Davis Marion 253 Leake -39 Scott 606 Smith Covington 330 Lamar Newton 20 Jasper Jones Forrest Neshoba 1, Perry Kemper 465 Lauderdale 28 Clarke -188 Wayne Greene 20 Percent Change in Employment Percentage Change in the Total Employment by County 2012 to 2014 DeSoto Marshall Benton 4.5% Alcorn 8.7% 5.3% Tunica 2.9% -0.2% Tippah 2.1% Tate Tishomingo -19.4% - 0.0% -1.1% -13.3% Prentiss Union 0.1% - 1.0% Panola 1.1% Lafayette 2.2% 1.1% - 2.0% -0.3% 7.0% 6.1% -1.0% Lee Itawamba 2.1% - 3.0% Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc -0.4% 3.1% % -6.1% 5.5% Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar 10.3% -8.1% Calhoun 4.1% -3.1% -2.2% Grenada -8.0% 2.5% Clay Webster 1.0% Sunflower Montgomery -1.3% -3.6% Leflore Carroll -2.6% -2.1% Washington -5.4% 3.3% -3.3% Oktibbeha -1.7% Choctaw 4.7% Lowndes Holmes Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys -16.5% -2.1% -1.8% -0.6% 1.7% Sharkey -1.2% Yazoo Leake Neshoba Kemper Issaquena 4.3% Madison -0.8% -1.9% 14.3% -15.3% 7.3% Scott Newton Lauderdale Warren Hinds Rankin 4.8% 0.3% 0.1% -1.1% -1.0% 5.3% Smith Jasper Clarke Claiborne Copiah 2.0% Simpson -8.2% -6.0% -19.4% Jefferson -0.9% -1.3% 4.0% 0.4% Jones Wayne -1.9% Lincoln Covington 0.5% -2.3% 0.9% Franklin Lawrence Jeff Davis Adams 2.7% 1.0% -4.6% Forrest Marion Greene Wilkinson Amite 1.9% 3.4% Pike Lamar 10.1% -2.9% 1.0% -16.8% 3.0% Perry Walthall 1.7% -0.1% Statewide Change 2012 to 2014 Mean Increase: 154 Median Increase: 7 Standard Deviation: 777 Greatest Decrease in Employment: - 1,499 Greatest Increase in Employment:4,112 Pearl River -87 Hancock Stone Harrison 156 George 584 Jackson 1,247 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Statewide Percentage Change 2012 to 2014 Greatest Decrease: -19.4% Greatest Increase: 14.3% Mean Change: -0.2% Median Change: 0.0% Standard Deviation: 5.9% Pearl River -0.9% Hancock -2.2% Stone 1.8% Harrison 0.2% George 13.2% Jackson 2.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Map 3: Change in Employment for Mississippi Counties 2012 to

31 A Closer Look at Jasper County: the Unique Characteristics of County-Level Economies A detailed examination of each county within the 23-county service area of the Mississippi Power Company is beyond the scope of this report; however, it is illustrative to examine a few of the many factors that may uniquely impact business growth and employment within a specific county. With the loss of approximately 350 jobs over the period from 2012 to 2014, Jasper County experienced the largest decline in employment among the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties examined. Jasper County also experienced a loss of 5 business establishments and a decrease of 5.7 percent in total annual wages over the two year period. As shown in the figure below, the two major components of employment decline in Jasper County was the loss of 200 jobs in the Manufacturing Sector and the loss of 60 jobs in the Construction Sector. Other factors affecting Jasper County s economy may include the significant decline in oil and gas prices and the detrimental impact of declining prices on field economics in the oil and gas industry. Historically, Jasper County has been a leading gas and oil industry producer in the state of Mississippi and the home to multiple producers and suppliers to the industry; for example, occupants of the Heidelberg Industrial Park in Jasper include: Denbury Management Company Logan Oil Field Services Hays Petroleum A & B Pump & Supply Company B & B Oil Service Eagle Oil & Gas Tellus Energy Group Clarkco Services, Inc. B. A. Sauls, Inc. Full Circle Pump & Supply According to data from the Mississippi Oil & Gas Board; the number of original permits to drill in Jasper County fell from 48 in 2012 to 7 in 2014; this decrease in drilling activity may be an important contributor to the loss of employment in Jasper County. Although a more comprehensive economic study would be required to determine the multiplicity of micro- and macro-economic factors that are impacting county economies, it is important to note that there may be multiple causal factors beyond the rate increase by Mississippi Power Company that are responsible for the negative and the positive change that has occurred in the economies of the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company over the period from 2012 to

32 Figure 13: Total Wages (in $1,000) and Percent Change in Total Wages 2004 through

33 Total Annual Wages In 2014, total annual wages of $40,913,541,000 were reported for the state of Mississippi in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW; of this amount, $38,798,338,000 in total annual wages were identified by the county in which the wages were paid and the balance of $2,115,203,000 were undefined by county. As in prior sections of this report, wages that are undefined by county are not included in the analysis of the potential impact of rate increases by Mississippi Power Company. Over the period from 2004 through 2014, approximately 33.5 percent of the total annual wages earned in the 82 counties of Mississippi were earned in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties and the balance (66.5 percent) were earned in the remaining 59 Non Mississippi Power Company Counties (Figure 14, below). Over the period from 2004 through 2014, the percentage share of total annual wages for the 23 Mississippi Power Counties has varied, but generally these variations have tended to be minor from year to year. Over the period from 2004 to 2009, the percentage share of total wages in the Mississippi Power Company Counties trended upward as compared to the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties; for example, in 2009, the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties Figure 14: Percent Share of Annual Wages Earned in Mississippi Power and Non Mississippi Power Counties 2004 to 2014 had a percent share of the total annual wages in the 82 counties of Mississippi as compared to a percent share in 2004 (Figure 14 above). From the period from 2010, the percentage share of total wages for the Mississippi Power Counties began to trend downward and continued to decline through 2013 and then increased slightly from a percent share in 2013 to a percent share in Although the annual changes in the percent share of total wages in the Mississippi Power Counties are small and statistically insignificant, it would be anticipated that if the rate increase by Mississippi Power (in 2013 and 2014) was having a systemic negative impact across the 23 counties, then the decline in percent share of total wages from 2012 to 2013 (a decrease of 0.09 percent) would have exceeded the decline in the percent share of total wages in prior periods and would have been more significant than in prior periods. For example, from 2009 to 2010, the percentage share of total wages for the Mississippi Power Counties declined from percent to percent (a decrease 31

34 Change in Total Wages (in $1,000) by County 2012 to 2014 Change in Total Wages ($80,912.00) - $0.00 DeSoto Marshall Benton Alcorn $ $11, $170,884 Tunica $14,746 ($70) Tippah $22,827 Tate Tishomingo $11, $44, ($35,665) $8,021 ($1,578) Prentiss $14,506 $44, $129, Union $8,239 Panola Lafayette $44,431 $129, $231, $8,415 $7,856 $68,746 $21,750 Lee Itawamba Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc $18,701 ($1,483) $30,046 Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar $15,044 $509 Calhoun $2,390 ($6,840) Grenada ($5,836) $30,605 Clay Sunflower Webster ($7,712) $17,074 Montgomery $1,963 $5,418 ($4,924) Leflore Carroll $2,664 Washington ($1,817) Oktibbeha ($9,546) $4,016 Choctaw $39,867 Lowndes Holmes $8,127 ($7,421) Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys ($123) $4,994 $7,981 $4,920 Adams $15,214 Wilkinson ($12,539) Issaquena ($1,319) Franklin $2,866 Sharkey $721 Warren $14,974 ($80,912) Claiborne Jefferson $1,307 Amite $11,989 Yazoo $17,912 Hinds $129,095 Copiah $11,346 Lincoln $21,496 Pike $17,323 $231,142 $3,378 Walthall Madison Rankin $185,227 Simpson $2,390 ($2,668) Lawrence Jeff Davis $2,639 Marion $17,517 Leake $4,637 Scott $36,387 Smith $9,738 $7,666 Covington Jasper Jones Forrest $24,000 Lamar $76,310 Neshoba $5,388 Newton $5,109 ($8,498) $62,495 Perry $1,531 Kemper $75,999 Lauderdale $26,532 Clarke ($7,536) Wayne $7,055 Greene $2,845 Percent Change in Total Wages (in $1,000) by County 2012 to 2014 Percent Change in Total Wages DeSoto Marshall Benton Alcorn 11.3% 4.7% 9.6% Tunica 8.1% -0.2% Tippah 5.5% Tate Tishomingo -32.8% % -0.9% Prentiss -0.8% - 1.0% -10.8% Union Panola 4.1% Lafayette 13.4% 1.1% - 3.9% 2.3% 10.0% 12.5% 4.0% % Lee Itawamba Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc 1.0% 19.7% % 3.2% -4.4% 9.1% Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar 19.6% 0.5% Calhoun 5.7% 2.5% -1.8% Grenada -3.3% 9.7% Clay Sunflower Webster -1.7% Montgomery -1.9% 3.5% 3.4% Leflore Carroll 3.8% Washington -5.5% 12.7% -1.0% Oktibbeha 0.7% Choctaw 6.5% Lowndes Holmes Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys -10.9% -0.1% 3.8% 5.4% 7.5% Sharkey 2.1% Yazoo Leake Neshoba Kemper Issaquena 8.5% Madison 3.4% 1.3% 60.8% -22.5% 12.3% 1.9% Scott Newton Lauderdale Warren Hinds Rankin 9.9% 3.0% 2.3% 2.5% 9.3% Smith Jasper Clarke -32.8% Copiah 10.9% -5.7% -7.5% Simpson Claiborne Jefferson 5.1% 1.2% 3.6% 5.2% Jones Wayne -5.2% Lincoln Covington 6.1% 4.5% 4.4% Franklin Lawrence Jeff Davis Adams 6.0% 5.3% 2.6% Forrest Marion Greene Wilkinson Amite 4.9% 7.4% Pike Lamar 26.7% 4.8% 5.3% -20.2% 5.7% Perry Walthall 4.0% 2.0% Change in Total Wages 82 Counties Expressed in $1,000 Minimum: -$80,912 Maximum: $231,142 Mean: $20,792 Median: $7,360 Standard Deviation: $46,010 Pearl River $5,670 Hancock ($5,557) Stone $5,428 Harrison $85,700 George $35,770 Jackson $157,533 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Percent Change in Total Wages 82 Counties Minimum: -32.8% Maximum: +60.8% Mean: +3.9% Median: +3.8% Standard Deviation: 10.5% Map 4: Change in Total Annual Wages 2012 to 2014 Pearl River 1.9% Hancock -0.9% Stone 4.5% Harrison 2.9% George 26.5% Jackson 7.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 32

35 of 0.42 percent) and from 2010 to 2011, the percent share of total wages for the Mississippi Power Counties declined from percent to percent (a decrease of 0.49 percent). It would also be anticipated that the percentage share of total wages for the Mississippi Power Counties would continue to decline and to have escalated over the period from 2013 to 2014 as the full effects of the rate increases systemically impacted the economies of the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties; as shown in Figure 14, on page 31, the percentage share of total annual wages as a percent of the total wages in the 82 counties of Mississippi increased by 0.04 percent from 2013 to Analysis of the percentage growth of total annual wages in the Mississippi Power Company Counties and the Non Mississippi Power Company Counties (Figure 13, page 30) follow a pattern that is similar to that found for employment growth (Figure 11, page 24), with the exception that the percentage increase in total wages in the Mississippi Power Company Counties exceeded that of the Non Mississippi Power Counties. The percentage change in total annual wages in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties did not turn positive until the period from 2010 to 2011; this was one year after the percentage change in total annual wages began to turn positive in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties. Over the period from 2009 to 2010, the percentage change in total wages was 0.44 percent in the Mississippi Power Counties as compared to 1.42 percent in the Non Mississippi Power Counties. Then, from 2010 to 2011, and from 2011 to 2012, the percentage rate of growth in total annual wages in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties was lower during both periods when compared to the rate of growth in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties (Figure 13, page 30). The rate of growth in total wages slowed over the period from 2012 to 2013 when compared to the period from 2011 to 2012 in the Mississippi Power Company Counties and in the Non Mississippi Power Counties; the Mississippi Power Company Counties exhibit a 0.24 percent decline in the rate of growth (2.11 percent from 2011 to 2012 and 1.87 percent from 2012 to 2013) and the Non Mississippi Power Counties exhibit a 1.80 percent decline in the rate of growth (4.09 percent from 2011 to 2012 and 2.29 percent from 2012 to 2013). From 2012 to 2013 (before and after the rate increase), total wages increased by 1.87 percent in the Mississippi Power Counties and by 2.29 percent in the Non Mississippi Power Counties a difference of 0.32 percent in the percentage rate of change between the Mississippi Power Counties and the Non Mississippi Power Counties over the one year period. From 2013 to 2014, the percentage rate of growth in annual total wages is 2.52 percent in the Mississippi Power Counties and 2.33 percent in the Non Mississippi Power Counties (Figure 13 page 30). This indicates that the percentage rate of growth in total wages over the period from 2013 to 2014 was 0.19 percent higher in the Mississippi Power Counties as compared to the Non Mississippi Power Counties; although this difference is statistically insignificant, there is no evidence to support the assumption that the Mississippi Power Company rate increase had negatively or systemically impacted total annual wages across the 23 counties that it serves. Over the period from 2012 (prior to the rate increase) to 2014, total annual wages in the 82 counties of Mississippi increased from $37,093,313,000 to $38,798,338,000, an increase of $1,705,025,000, or 4.6 percent. Over the period from 2012 to 2014, 63 of the 82 counties (76.8 percent) in the state of Mississippi experienced an increase in total annual wages; the mean wage increase across the 82 counties was $20,792,999 with a standard deviation of ± $46,010,590, and the median wage increase was $7,360,500. Over the period, the maximum increase in total annual wages occurred in Madison County. 33

36 Among the 15 counties in the state of Mississippi that experienced the highest increase in total annual wages from 2012 to 2014, there were six Mississippi Power Counties Jackson, Harrison, Forrest, Jones, Scott, and George (Table 10, at right). The total annual wage increase of $1,430,191,000 in these 15 counties represented 83.9 percent of the total annual wage increase of $1,705,025,000 across all 82 counties in the state of Mississippi over the period from 2012 to 2014; over the same period, the total annual wage increase in the six Mississippi Power Counties accounted for 82.1 percent of the total annual wage increase of $553,052,000 across the 23 Mississippi Power Counties. Although beyond the focus of this study, it is of interest to note that Kemper County (the site of Mississippi Power Company s integrated coal gasification combined cycle electric generating plant) had the 8 th highest increase in total annual wages among the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi. Among the 15 Mississippi counties in the state of Mississippi that experienced the greatest decrease in total annual wages over the period from 2012 to 2014, there were four Mississippi Power Counties Jefferson Davis, Hancock, Clarke, and Jasper (Table 11, at right); these were the only Mississippi Power Counties that experienced a decline in total annual wages over the period. Among all 19 Mississippi counties that experienced a decline in total annual wages from 2012 to 2014, the total decline in annual wages was $202,044,000; two counties Table 10: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Highest Increase in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to 2014 Rank County Total Annual Total Annual Change 2012 to Wages 2012 Wages Madison $1,879,921,000 $2,111,063,000 $231,142,000 2 Rankin $1,996,746,000 $2,181,973,000 $185,227,000 3 DeSoto $1,517,028,000 $1,687,912,000 $170,884,000 4 Jackson $2,205,912,000 $2,363,445,000 $157,533,000 5 Hinds $5,074,945,000 $5,204,040,000 $129,095,000 6 Harrison $2,926,914,000 $3,012,614,000 $85,700,000 7 Forrest $1,350,325,000 $1,426,635,000 $76,310,000 8 Kemper $125,047,000 $201,046,000 $75,999,000 9 Lafayette $684,893,000 $753,639,000 $68,746, Jones $1,020,431,000 $1,082,926,000 $62,495, Union $331,538,000 $375,969,000 $44,431, Oktibbeha $615,273,000 $655,140,000 $39,867, Scott $366,867,000 $403,254,000 $36,387, George $135,232,000 $171,002,000 $35,770, Monroe $314,400,000 $345,005,000 $30,605,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Table 11: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Decline in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to 2014 Rank County Total Annual Total Annual Change 2012 to Wages 2012 Wages Tate $166,662,000 $165,084,000 ($1,578,000) 2 Carroll $33,192,000 $31,375,000 ($1,817,000) 3 Jeff Davis $50,956,000 $48,288,000 ($2,668,000) 4 Sunflower $260,223,000 $255,299,000 ($4,924,000) 5 Hancock $612,017,000 $606,460,000 ($5,557,000) 6 Chickasaw $176,143,000 $170,307,000 ($5,836,000) 7 Bolivar $389,811,000 $382,971,000 ($6,840,000) 8 Humphreys $68,385,000 $60,964,000 ($7,421,000) 9 Clarke $100,614,000 $93,078,000 ($7,536,000) 10 Leflore $456,383,000 $448,671,000 ($7,712,000) 11 Jasper $148,290,000 $139,792,000 ($8,498,000) 12 Lowndes $965,169,000 $955,623,000 ($9,546,000) 13 Wilkinson $62,225,000 $49,686,000 ($12,539,000) 14 Tunica $330,625,000 $294,960,000 ($35,665,000) 15 Claiborne $246,946,000 $166,034,000 ($80,912,000) Source; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Tunica and Claiborne accounted for 57.7 percent of this decline and the four Mississippi Power Counties that experienced a decline in total annual wages accounted for 12.0 percent of the total decline (in the four Mississippi Power Counties, the decline in annual wages totaled $24,259,000). 34

37 Statewide, the percentage rate of increase in total annual wages was 4.60 percent over the period from 2012 to 2014; the mean percentage rate of increase across the 82 counties was 3.9 percent with a standard deviation of ± 10.5 percent and the median percentage rate of increase was 3.8 percent. Over the period from 2012 to 2014, the maximum percentage rate of increase in total annual wages was 60.8 percent in Kemper County and the greatest percentage decrease in total annual wages was 32.8 percent in Claiborne County. Among the 15 Mississippi counties with the greatest percentage decrease in total annual wages from 2012 to 2014, there were three Mississippi Power Counties Clarke, Jasper, and Jefferson Davis. Note that all 19 counties in the state of Mississippi that experienced a decline in total annual wages are presented in Table 12, at right. Among the 15 Mississippi counties that exhibited the highest percentage increase in total annual wages over the period from 2012 to 2014, three were Mississippi Power Counties George, Smith, and Scott (Table 13, at right). Statistically, counties that exhibit a decrease of up to 6.6 percent in total annual wages or an increase up to 14.4 percent in total annual wages are within one standard deviation below or above the mean for the 82 counties in Mississippi; based upon these statistics, within the 23 Mississippi Power Counties, the only percentage decrease in total annual wages that was statistically significant occurred in Clarke County. Table 12: The 19 Mississippi Counties with the Greatest Percentage Decrease in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to 2014 Rank County Total Annual Wages 2012 Total Annual Wages 2014 Percentage Rate of Change 2012 to Claiborne $246,946,000 $166,034, % 2 Issaquena $5,857,000 $4,538, % 3 Wilkinson $62,225,000 $49,686, % 4 Humphreys $68,385,000 $60,964, % 5 Tunica $330,625,000 $294,960, % 6 Clarke $100,614,000 $93,078, % 7 Jasper $148,290,000 $139,792, % 8 Carroll $33,192,000 $31,375, % 9 Jeff Davis $50,956,000 $48,288, % 10 Quitman $33,926,000 $32,443, % 11 Chickasaw $176,143,000 $170,307, % 12 Sunflower $260,223,000 $255,299, % 13 Bolivar $389,811,000 $382,971, % 14 Leflore $456,383,000 $448,671, % 15 Lowndes $965,169,000 $955,623, % 16 Tate $166,662,000 $165,084, % 17 Hancock $612,017,000 $606,460, % 18 Benton $40,483,000 $40,413, % 19 Holmes $104,622,000 $104,499, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Table 13: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Highest Percentage Rate of Increase in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to 2014 Rank County Total Annual Wages 2012 Total Annual Wages 2014 Percentage Rate of Change 2012 to Kemper $125,047,000 $201,046, % 2 Amite $44,903,000 $56,892, % 3 George $135,232,000 $171,002, % 4 Tallahatchie $76,697,000 $91,741, % 5 Union $331,538,000 $375,969, % 6 Choctaw $63,920,000 $72,047, % 7 Itawamba $173,402,000 $195,152, % 8 Madison $1,879,921,000 $2,111,063, % 9 DeSoto $1,517,028,000 $1,687,912, % 10 Smith $89,590,000 $99,328, % 11 Lafayette $684,893,000 $753,639, % 12 Scott $366,867,000 $403,254, % 13 Monroe $314,400,000 $345,005, % 14 Tishomingo $151,185,000 $165,691, % 15 Rankin $1,996,746,000 $2,181,973, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW 35

38 In the 23 Mississippi Power Counties, total annual wages increased from $12,461,374,000 in 2012 to $13,014,426,000 in 2014; this represented an increase of $553,052,000, or 4.44 percent. In the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties, total annual wages increased from $24,631,939,000 in 2012 to $25,783,912,000 in 2014; this represented an increase of $1,151,973,000, or 4.68 percent. Although the difference of 0.24 percent in the rate of change in total annual wages in the Mississippi Power Counties is not statistically different than that of the Non Mississippi Power Counties over the period from 2012 to 2014, it would be anticipated that a negative impact from utility rate increases would be exhibited in the percentage rate of growth in total annual wages over the period from 2012 to 2014; therefore, the data does not support a finding that utility rate increases have caused economic decline in the 23 counties that are served by Mississippi Power Company. Over the period from 2012 to 2014, 82.6 percent of the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties had an increase in total Table 14: Comparison of the Difference in the Percentage of Mississippi Power Counties and Non Mississippi Power Counties Experiencing Growth in Total Annual Wages from 2012 to 2014 Comparison of Growth in Total Annual Wages 2012 to 2014 Mississippi Power Counties Non Mississippi Power Counties Counties with Growth 19 Counties with Growth 44 Counties with Decrease 4 Counties with Decrease 15 Total 23 Total 59 Percent of Counties with Growth 82.61% Percent of Counties with Growth 74.58% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages annual wages as compared to 74.6 percent of the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties (Table 14, above). Although the percentage rate of Mississippi Power Company Counties that experienced an increase in total annual wages over the period from 2012 to 2014 is almost eight percent (8.03%) higher than that of the Non Mississippi Power Counties, it cannot be inferred that there is any causal relationship between the rate increase by Mississippi Power Company and the positive growth in total annual wages in the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company as this would be a spurious assumption due to the findings in prior sections of this report that found no relationship to exist between either employment or business growth over the period from 2012 (prior to the rate increase) and the end of 2014 (the year in which the full impact of two years of rate increases would be exhibited) in the 23 counties. In addition, the assumption that one relatively minor economic change, such as a utility rate increase, within the context of a national and statewide economy struggling to recover from the Great Recession would be the sole cause of any economic change within 23 counties runs counterfactual to an array of fundamental economic theory. 36

39 A Closer Look at George County: the Unique Characteristics of County-Level Economies Over the period from 2012 to 2014, employment in George County increased by 584 jobs; over this period, the county had the 10 th highest absolute growth in total employment and the 2 nd highest percentage increase in employment among the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi. From 2012 to 2014, total annual wages in George County grew by $35.8 million and increased by 26.5 percent; the county also had the 3 rd highest percentage increase in total annual wages in the state of Mississippi. In 2014, the Government Sector and the Retail Trade Sector represented 27.4 percent and 18.6 percent, respectively, of total employment in George County. With the exception of the dominance of the Government and Retail Trade sectors, the economy of George County is well-diversified and no other industry sector represents more than 10 percent of total employment; while this diversification may be a contributing factor to the economic health of the county, two sectors Construction and Health Care were the major contributors to employment growth over the period from 2012 to From 2012 to 2014, employment in the Construction Sector increased by 340 (an increase of percent) and employment in the Health Care Sector increased by 150 (an increase of 45.5 percent); employment in the Retail Trade Sector increased by 60 (an increase of 6.5 percent) and employment in the Manufacturing Sector increased by 40 (an increase of 14.8 percent); the Government Sector saw no employment increase from 2012 to Although a comprehensive investigation of the factors contributing to the economic growth in George County is beyond the scope of this report, the following elements were identified as potential drivers of employment growth in the Construction and Health Care Sectors: A $287 million investment to expand Gulf South s natural gas pipeline system occurred over the period from 2012 through 2014 Investments and Improvements to the George County Industrial Park The passage of an $18 million school bond issue to build new classrooms and a fine arts center The George County Regional Hospital s modernization and expansion to include a Health and Rehabilitation Center It is highly probable that the expansion of the Gulf South s pipeline was a significant contributory factor to the increase in employment in the Construction Sector; although the duration of the economic impact of this project may be short-term, it serves to illustrate the multiple micro- and macro-economic factors that may uniquely impact local economies. 37

40 Figure 15: Mississippi Individual Income Tax Returns 2006 to

41 Individual Income Tax Returns The Mississippi Department of Revenue reports data on the number of individual income tax returns filed; data is reported by county for individual income tax returns filed by residents within each county, income tax returns for out of state filers are reported separately as an aggregate number and therefore cannot be attributed to specific counties. Out of state filers normally include returns filed by those who earn income within the state of Mississippi but may reside out of state; examples may include construction workers, stevedores or longshoreman, contract workers, workers in the oil or gas industry, individuals that own vacation homes in the state of Mississippi, or casino workers that work within the state of Mississippi but maintain a permanent residence outside of the state. Although it is an imperfect metric, the number of individual income tax returns may be used as one indicator of change in economic activity within the counties of the state of Mississippi. Figure 16: Total Number of Individual Income Tax Returns Filed in the State of Mississippi 2006 through 2014 In fiscal year 2014, the Mississippi Department of Revenue reported that the number of personal income tax returns filed by residents of counties was 1,028,703, the number of reported out of state personal income tax returns filed was 123,213, and the total number of reported personal income tax returns filed was 1,151,916 (Figure 16, above). Over the period from 2006 through 2014, the total number of individual tax returns filed in the state of Mississippi (including both in state and out of state) has generally exhibited a downward slope; exceptions include an increase of 1.96 percent in the 39

42 Figure 17: Comparison of Mississippi Power Company Counties and Non Mississippi Power Company Counties, Number of Personal Income Tax Returns Filed as a Percent of Total In State Returns Filed 2006 through

43 number of individual returns filed from 2009 to 2010 and an increase from 2011 to 2012 of 2.66 percent in the number of individual returns filed. From 2011 to 2012, the total number of individual income tax returns filed in the state of Mississippi increased by 33,024; this increase was followed by a decline of 104,978 (a decrease of 8.24 percent) in the number of returns filed from 2012 to 2013, and then from 2013 to 2014, the number of individual income tax returns declined by 17,828 (a 1.52 percent decrease). Historically, individual income tax returns filed by out of state filers have averaged approximately 10.1 percent of the total individual income tax returns filed and have trended slightly upward over the period from 2006 through 2014 (Figure 18, at right); due to the longitudinal stability of this percentage distribution, out of state filers will have relatively little impact on the findings discussed in the following paragraphs. The Mississippi Public Service Commission voted to approve a retail rate increase of 15 percent effective March 19, 2013 and an increase of an additional 3 percent to become effective January 1, 2014 (MPSC Rate Order); this rate increase impacted all retail customers of Mississippi Power Company in 23 Mississippi counties. Statewide, the total number of individual income tax returns filed by all in state filers declined by 113,041 from 2012 (prior to the rate increase) through 2014 a decrease of 9.9 percent; out of state filers are excluded from these totals. To examine the impact these rate increases may have had within the counties served by Mississippi Power Company, the data for the number of individual income tax filers for the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company was disaggregated from the data for the remaining 59 counties in the state of Mississippi that are served by other utility providers. As shown in Table 15 below, the percentage change in the number of individual income tax returns filed in the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company is statistically no different than that exhibited in the 59 Mississippi counties that are served by other electric power company providers. Table 15: Number of In State Individual Income Tax Returns Filed 2006 through 2014 Figure 18: Out of State Individual Income Tax Returns as a Percent of Total Returns 2006 through 2014 Number of In State Individual Income Tax Returns Filed 2006 through Change 2012 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2014 Total MS Power Company Counties 349, , , , , , , , ,752 34, % Total Non Mississippi 936, , , , , , , , ,951 78, % Power Company Counties Total All Mississippi In 1,286,404 1,162,400 1,121,006 1,117,620 1,133,335 1,113,092 1,141,744 1,047,948 1,028, , % State Filers Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue, Annual Reports for Fiscal Years 2006 through

44 Figure 17 on page 40 shows the percentage of total in state individual tax returns filed within the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company expressed as a percent of the total in state returns filed statewide as compared to the percentage of total in state individual tax returns filed within the 59 counties that are not served by Mississippi Power Company expressed as a percent of the total in state returns filed. Individual income tax returns filed by filers within the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company represented percent of the total in state individual income tax returns filed statewide in 2014 (the same percentage rate that it was in 2012 prior to the rate increase and the same percentage rate that it was in 2008 Figure 17, page 40), as compared to percent of total in state returns filed in the 59 non Mississippi Power Company counties in The longitudinal stability of the percentage share of total individual income tax returns filed by filers within the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company when compared to the percent of total individual income tax returns filed by filers within the Non Mississippi Power Counties in 2012, 2013, and 2014 (Figure 17, page 40), combined with the absence of a statistically significant difference in the percentage rate of change in the percentage distribution of individual income tax returns filed within the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company as compared to that of Non Mississippi Power Counties from 2012 to 2014 (Table 15, page 41) leads to a conclusion that there is no evidence to support a finding that the rate increase by Mississippi Power Company is a causal factor for economic decline in 23 counties in the state of Mississippi. The statewide decline in the number of individual income tax returns filed as a measure of economic activity may be indicative of the lingering, systemic economic impacts of the Great Recession and the failure of the U.S. economy and that of the state of Mississippi to recover from the Great Recession; it may also be indicative of other factors, such as the declining workforce participation rates that are found nationwide. For example in 2013, 63.6 percent of the U.S. population age 16 and over was in the labor force as compared to 65.0 percent in 2006; in 2013, 57.5 percent of Mississippi s population age 16 and over was in the labor force as compared to 59.7 percent in

45 A Closer Look at Hancock County: the Unique Characteristics of County-Level Economies With an increase of 44 business establishments and an increase of 5.5 percent in establishments, Hancock County had the 7 th highest increase and the 6 th highest percentage growth rate in the number of business establishments among the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi over the period from 2012 to Despite an increase in the number of business establishments, employment in Hancock County declined by 2.16 percent, losing 288 jobs over the period from 2012 to Average annual pay in Hancock County was $48,017 in 2014, which was the 4 rd highest among all the counties in the state; average annual pay increased by 1.29 percent from 2012 to 2014, this compared to a median increase of 3.4 percent across the 82 counties in Mississippi. Although total annual wages in Hancock County declined by $5,557,000 from 2012 to 2014 (a decrease of 0.91 percent over the period), the county then experienced an increase of $7,237,000, or 1.2 percent over the period from 2013 to As shown in the figure at top right, Hancock County has been experiencing a slow decline in total employment since 2009; when employment is disaggregated by industry sector, it becomes apparent that employment in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Sector and in the Administrative Support & Waste Management Sector has been in decline since 2009 and 2010, respectively (see figure at right). 43

46 Change in Average Annual Pay from 2012 to 2014 Percent Change in Average Annual Pay from 2012 to 2014 Change in Average Annual Pay DeSoto Marshall Benton Alcorn ($9,960.00) - $0.00 $763 Tunica $1,607 $2 Tippah $1,072 Tate Tishomingo $ $ $830 $28 $58 Prentiss $1,191 $ $1, Panola Union Lafayette $3,743 $847 $1, $2, $826 $1,033 $1,857 $1,321 $486 Lee Itawamba $2, $15, Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc $522 $993 Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar $2,342 $2,704 Calhoun $468 $1,607 $143 Grenada $1,487 $2,368 $219 Clay Webster ($866) Sunflower Montgomery $2,022 $1,509 Leflore Carroll $1,652 Washington ($5) $893 Oktibbeha $789 Choctaw $556 Lowndes Holmes $3,111 Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys $1,655 $567 $1,623 $1,946 $1,543 Sharkey $942 Yazoo Leake Neshoba Kemper Issaquena $1,386 Madison $1,134 $1,050 $15,653 ($2,073) $1,877 Scott Newton Lauderdale Warren Hinds Rankin $1,419 $763 $767 $1,155 $1,518 $1,352 Smith Jasper Clarke Claiborne ($9,960) Copiah Simpson $2,874 $920 ($512) Jefferson $1,877 $668 ($117) $1,405 Jones Wayne Lincoln ($1,062) Covington $2,032 $2,164 Franklin Lawrence Jeff Davis Adams $1,064 $1,400 $3,004 $1,099 Forrest Marion Greene Wilkinson Amite $827 $1,234 Pike Lamar $4,224 $2,155 $950 $1,156 ($1,189) Perry Walthall $687 $795 Percent Change in Average Annual Pay DeSoto Marshall Benton 0.2% Alcorn 2.4% 4.1% -16.6% - 0.0% Tunica 5.1% 0.0% Tippah 3.4% Tate Tishomingo 0.1% - 1.0% 2.8% 0.1% Prentiss 1.1% - 3.8% Panola Union Lafayette 10.9% 3.0% 3.9% - 6.3% 2.5% 2.9% 6.1% 1.8% Lee Itawamba 6.4% % Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc 1.5% 4.2% 3.4% Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar 8.5% 9.4% Calhoun 1.5% 5.8% 0.4% Grenada 5.1% 7.0% 0.7% Clay Webster -2.6% Sunflower Montgomery 7.5% 4.8% Leflore Carroll 6.1% Washington 0.0% 9.1% 2.3% Oktibbeha 2.5% Choctaw 1.7% Lowndes 6.7% Holmes Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys 2.0% 5.7% 6.1% 5.7% 3.4% Adams Wilkinson -3.9% -8.6% Issaquena Jefferson -0.4% Franklin 4.3% Sharkey 3.5% Claiborne -16.6% 3.0% Warren Amite 15.1% Hinds 3.6% Yazoo 4.0% Copiah 6.0% Lincoln 3.2% Pike 2.3% 4.7% Lawrence 7.5% 8.0% Walthall Madison Rankin 3.8% Simpson 2.5% -3.4% Jeff Davis Marion 3.8% Leake 4.2% Scott 4.8% Smith 8.7% 4.8% Covington 3.0% Lamar Newton 2.6% Jasper Jones Forrest Neshoba 3.2% 2.7% 5.6% 2.6% Perry 2.1% Kemper 40.6% Lauderdale 2.2% Clarke -1.6% Wayne 6.9% Greene 4.2% Statewide Change 2012 to 2014 Minimum: -$9,960 Maximum: +15,653 Mean: +$1,207 Median: +$1,068 Standard Deviation: $2,263 Pearl River $850 Hancock $592 Stone $831 Harrison $970 George $3,580 Jackson $2,035 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Statewide Change 2012 to 2014 Minimum: -16.6% Maximum: +40.6% Mean: +3.9% Median: +3.4% Standard Deviation: 5.8% Pearl River 2.8% Hancock 1.3% Stone 2.7% Harrison 2.7% George 11.7% Jackson 4.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Map 5: Change in Average Annual Pay from 2012 to 2014 by County 44

47 Average Annual Pay Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS QCEW) for average annual pay across all industries, all establishment sizes, and all types of ownership that was defined by county was used to identify and analyze change in average annual pay. Average annual pay that was undefined by county is excluded from the analysis that is described in the following section of this document. 8 In 2014, the median average annual pay across the 82 counties of Mississippi was $32,445; the mean statewide average annual pay across the 82 counties was $33,368 with a standard deviation of ± $5,376. Among the 82 counties in Mississippi, the lowest average annual pay was $22,146 in Issaquena County and the highest average annual pay was $54,199 in Kemper County as of Among the 10 Mississippi counties that had the highest average annual pay in 2014, three were Mississippi Power Counties Jackson, Hancock, and Perry (Map 10, in Appendix A, page LIX). Over the period from 2004 through 2008, average annual pay across the 82 counties in Mississippi increased by $4,177, with an average annual increase of approximately $1,004 per year and a 3.8 percent average annual growth rate over the period. From 2008 to 2009, average annual pay increased by only $90 and the rate of growth was 0.3 percent over the one year period. Over the period from 2009 to 2014, average annual pay across the 82 counties in Mississippi increased by $3,341, Figure 19: Statewide Change in Average Annual Pay 2004 to 2014 with an average annual increase of approximately $572 per year and a 1.8 percent average annual growth rate over the period (Figure 19, above). Over the period from 2012 to 2014, the median annual pay increase 8 Author s note: when queried using the category statewide Mississippi, rather than by individual county, U.S. BLS QCEW reports the Average Annual Pay in the state of Mississippi to be $37,117 in Included in this average is Average Annual Pay in the amount of $50,920 in 2014 that is unknown or undefined by county; because the statewide Average Annual Pay includes this undefined Average Annual Pay, the statewide Mississippi average is higher than that when the undefined Average Annual Pay is not included in the statewide county averages. The mean Average Annual Pay in the amount of $33,368 across all counties in Mississippi that is used in this section of the document excludes Average Annual Pay that is undefined by county in the BLS QCEW data. 45

48 Figure 20: Change in Average Annual Pay in 23 Mississippi Power Counties and Non Mississippi Power Counties 2004 through

49 across all 82 Mississippi counties was $1,068; the median increase in average annual pay was $1,207 with a standard deviation of ± $2,263. From 2012 to 2014, 74 Mississippi Counties had an increase in average annual pay and eight counties experienced a decrease in average annual pay; the change in average annual pay across the 82 counties in Mississippi ranged from a maximum of $15,653 in Kemper County to a minimum of $9,960 in Claiborne County. Among the 15 Mississippi counties with the lowest increase (or a decline) in average annual pay, there were two Mississippi Power Counties Clarke and Jefferson Davis. Over the period from 2012 to 2014, Clarke County experienced a decline of $512 in average annual pay; this represented a 1.60 percent decline in average annual pay (Table 16, at right). Among the 15 counties in Mississippi that experienced the greatest dollar increase in average annual pay over the period from 2012 to 2014, there were five Mississippi Power Counties George, Smith, Wayne, Jackson and Jones; George County had the 4 th highest increase in average annual pay and Smith County had the 7 th highest increase in average annual pay among the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi (Table 17, at right). George, Smith, and Wayne counties were also among the 15 counties in the state of Mississippi that had the greatest percentage increase in average annual pay over the period from 2012 to 2014; these counties ranked as having the 3 rd, 7 th, and 13 th highest percentage increase in average annual pay among Mississippi s 82 counties (no percentage ranking tables are included). Table 16: The 15 Mississippi Counties with the Lowest Increase or a Decline in Average Annual Pay 2012 to 2014 County Table 17: The 15 Counties with the Greatest Increase in Average Annual Pay from 2012 to 2014 Rank County Change in Average Annual Pay 2012 to 2014 Change in Average Annual Pay 2012 to 2014 Percent Change in Average Annual Pay 2012 to 2014 Quitman $27,400 $27,886 $ % Grenada $30,584 $31,052 $ % Sunflower $29,301 $29,520 $ % Bolivar $32,917 $33,060 $ % Tippah $29,943 $30,001 $ % Tate $30,786 $30,814 $ % Benton $30,717 $30,719 $2 0.01% Carroll $28,385 $28,380 $5 0.02% Jefferson $28,234 $28,117 $ % Clarke $31,948 $31,436 $ % Leflore $32,867 $32,001 $ % Jeff Davis $30,909 $29,847 $1, % Wilkinson $30,118 $28,929 $1, % Issaquena $24,219 $22,146 $2, % Claiborne $60,002 $50,042 $9, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Percent Change in Average Annual Pay 2012 to Kemper $38,546 $54,199 $15, % 2 Amite $28,043 $32,267 $4, % 3 Union $34,270 $38,013 $3, % 4 George $30,635 $34,215 $3, % 5 Choctaw $34,310 $37,421 $3, % 6 Lawrence $39,914 $42,918 $3, % 7 Smith $33,001 $35,875 $2, % 8 Yalobusha $28,803 $31,507 $2, % 9 Monroe $33,825 $36,193 $2, % 10 Tallahatchie $27,597 $29,939 $2, % 11 Wayne $31,251 $33,415 $2, % 12 Walthall $26,904 $29,059 $2, % 13 Jackson $45,982 $48,017 $2, % 14 Jones $36,124 $38,156 $2, % 15 Webster $27,044 $29,066 $2, % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Average annual pay in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties grew from $33,110 in 2012 to $34,274 in 2014; this represented an average increase of $1,164 and a percentage increase of 3.52 percent over the period. Average annual pay in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties grew from $31,790 in 2012 to $33,015 in 2014; this represented an average increase of $1,225 and a percentage increase of 3.85 percent over the period. Over the period from 2012 to 2014, the percentage rate of 47

50 increase in average annual pay across the 23 Mississippi Power Counties was 0.34 percent lower than that of the Non Mississippi Power Counties; this difference is not statistically significant and there is no evidence that the utility rate increase in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties has detrimentally impacted the increase in average annual pay when compared to the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties. Although not the focus of this study, it is of interest to examine the contribution to the increase in average annual pay that is made by Kemper County; over the period from 2012 to 2014, average annual pay in Kemper increased by $15,653 an increase of percent. When the increase in average annual pay for the Non Mississippi Power Counties is calculated without including Kemper County, the increase in average annual pay across the remaining 58 counties drops from $1,224 to $976 and the percentage rate of increase in average annual pay declines from 3.85 percent to 2.08 percent over the period from 2012 to The impact of Kemper County on the percentage rate of increase in average annual pay within the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties is further illustrated in Figure 20 on page 46. When Kemper County is not included in the calculation of the percentage rate of increase in average annual pay, the percentage rate of change in the remaining 58 Non Mississippi Power Counties declines from 1.59 percent to 1.11 percent as compared to 0.80 percent in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties over the period from 2012 to 2013, and is 0.75 percent lower than the percentage rate of change in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties over the period from 2013 to If the Mississippi Power Company rate increase was a causal factor in economic decline within the 23 counties it serves, it would be anticipated that these negative effects would show evidence of increasing over time as the full impact of the rate increases took effect; therefore, it would be probable that negative effects would more likely be observed during the period from 2013 to 2014 rather than during the period from 2012 to As shown in Figure 20 on page 46, over the period from 2012 to 2013, average annual pay in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties increased by 0.80 percent; although this percentage rate of growth is lower than that of the Non Mississippi Power Counties, it is not significantly different. More importantly, over the period from 2013 to 2014, the percentage rate of growth in average annual pay is 2.70 percent in the Mississippi Power Counties; this rate of growth is higher than that of the Non Mississippi Power Counties and is also higher than the rate of growth in average annual pay during multiple periods prior to the rate increase which took effect in 2013 (e.g. from 2009 to 2010 or from 2010 to 2011). Therefore, there is no evidence to indicate that the rate increase by Mississippi Power has had a negative impact on average annual pay within the 23 Mississippi counties in its area of service. 48

51 A Closer Look at Jackson County: The Unique Characteristics of County-Level Economies In 2014, employment in Jackson County was 49,221. Over the period from 2012 to 2014, employment in Jackson County increased by 1,247; this was the 5 th highest absolute increase in employment among the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi and represented an increase of 2.6 percent over the period. As shown in the figure at right, employment in Jackson County declined by 0.4 percent over the period from 2013 to 2014; however, the county s economy has exhibited a pattern of historical swings in employment over time. The average annual pay in Jackson County was $48,017 in 2014; this was the 3 rd highest among the 82 counties in the state of Mississippi. From 2012 to 2014, average annual pay in Jackson County increased by $2,035, or 4.4 percent. With total annual wages of $2,363,445,000, Jackson County had the 3 rd highest total annual wages in the state of Mississippi in 2014; from 2012 to 2014, total annual wages increased by $157,533,000, representing an increase of 7.1 percent over the period. From 2012 to 2014, the number of business establishments in Jackson County increased by 14 from 2,370 establishments in 2012 to 2,384 establishments in 2014 this represented an increase of 0.59 percent. When employment is disaggregated by industry sector, it becomes apparent that the major components of employment growth in Jackson County were the Manufacturing Sector, the Construction Sector, and the Administrative Support & Waste Management Sector. As shown in the figure directly above, employment in the Manufacturing Sector increased by 1,290 over the period from 2012 to 2014, with the largest increase occurring from 2013 to 2014 employment increased by 1,070 in this one year period. Employment in the Administrative Support & Waste Management Sector increased by 130 over the period from 2012 to 2014; as shown in the figure above, after experiencing a decline from 2012 to 2013, employment in this sector increased by 200 over the period from 2013 to This illustrates how employment patterns tend to be unique to specific industries within a county. 49

52 Table 18: Encapsulation of Data Business Establishments Absolute Change 2012 to 2013 Absolute Change 2013 to 2014 Absolute Change 2012 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2013 Percent Change 2013 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2014 Mississippi Power Counties 19,765 19,921 19, % 0.17% 0.96% Non Mississippi Power Counties 42,251 42,787 42, % 0.15% 1.42% Mississippi Power Counties Percent of Total 31.87% 31.77% 31.77% Not Applicable Employment Absolute Change 2012 to 2013 Absolute Change 2013 to 2014 Absolute Change 2012 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2013 Percent Change 2013 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2014 Mississippi Power Counties 347, , ,549 1,477 1,804 3, % 0.52% 0.94% Non Mississippi Power Counties 700, , ,207 4,264 5,046 9, % 0.72% 1.33% Mississippi Power Counties Percent of Total 33.13% 33.09% 33.05% Not Applicable Total Annual Wages (in $1,000) Absolute Change 2012 to 2013 Absolute Change 2013 to 2014 Absolute Change 2012 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2013 Percent Change 2013 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2014 Mississippi Power Counties $12,461,374 $12,694,260 $13,014,426 $232,886 $320,166 $553, % 2.52% 4.44% Non Mississippi Power Counties $24,631,939 $25,196,874 $25,783,912 $564,935 $587,038 $1,151, % 2.33% 4.68% Mississippi Power Counties Percent of Total 33.59% 33.50% 33.54% Not Applicable In State Individual Income Tax Returns Absolute Change 2012 to 2013 Absolute Change 2013 to 2014 Absolute Change 2012 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2013 Percent Change 2013 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2014 Mississippi Power Counties 351, , ,752 35, , % 0.19% 9.89% Non Mississippi Power Counties 790, , ,951 58,404 19,857 78, % 2.71% 9.90% Mississippi Power Counties Percent of Total 30.79% 30.17% 30.79% Not Applicable Average Annual Pay Absolute Change 2012 to 2013 Absolute Change 2013 to 2014 Absolute Change 2012 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2013 Percent Change 2013 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2014 Mississippi Power Counties $33,110 $33,374 $34,274 $264 $900 $1, % 2.70% 3.52% Non Mississippi Power Counties $31,790 $32,297 $33,015 $507 $717 $1, % 2.22% 3.85% Mississippi Power Counties Ratio Not Applicable Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 2004 through

53 Review of the Findings On March 5, 2013, the Mississippi Public Service Commission voted to approve a utility rate increase by Mississippi Power Company of 15 percent, effective March 19, 2013 and an additional rate increase of three (3) percent to become effective January 1, The purpose of this study was to analyze change in major economic indicators and to describe patterns or causal relationships that may have been found to exist between changes in these major economic indicators and the utility rate increase by Mississippi Power Company in the 23 counties Mississippi counties served by Mississippi Power Company. To examine changes that may have occurred in the economies of the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties, the Stennis Institute Research Team selected economic indicators that measure the major components of economic change, to include: a change in the number of business establishments a change in employment a change in total annual wages a change in the number of individual income tax returns filed a change in average annual pay The study examined the change that occurred in the selected economic indicators over the period 2012 through 2014; 2012 is the period prior to the time the utility rate increase went into effect, the period from 2012 to 2013 was expected to capture the partial effect of the rate increases and 2014 was anticipated to capture the full effect of the rate increase from January 2014 through December U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (BLS QCEW) data was used to analyze the number of business establishments, total employment, total annual wages, and average annual pay; this data is collected for the months of January through December of the calendar year and then reports annual average data for each year for each county in the United States. Although the BLS QCEW data may be queried and disaggregated based upon specific industry sectors, the size of establishments as defined by the number of employees, and based upon ownership (private, federal government, or state and local government), the Stennis Research Team selected to use data for all business establishments (regardless of size or ownership) and total employment across all industries and all businesses for each county in the state of Mississippi to avoid bias in the findings and to assure that all potential economic effects were included in the analysis. In addition to the BLS QCEW data, the Research Team used data from the Mississippi Department of Revenue to analyze the number of individual income tax returns filed in the state of Mississippi by in state filers. This study disaggregated the data for the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties from the data for the 59 Non Mississippi Power Company Counties in the state of Mississippi; the Research Team calculated the median, mean, and standard deviation, absolute change, and percentage rate of change and then compared these measures of change to analyze differences that might exist between the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties and the 59 Non Mississippi Power Company Counties. This research found no evidence to support a finding for a difference in the change exhibited in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties when compared to the change exhibited in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Company Counties for any of the economic indicators included in this report. This report focused on changes that 51

54 were exhibited in economic indicators over the period from 2012 through 2014; over this two year period, minor but statistically insignificant differences were found in the change exhibited in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties when compared to the change exhibited in the 59 Non Mississippi Power Company Counties for all of the economic indicators analyzed in this study (Table 18 page 50). Theoretically, if the Mississippi Power Company rate increase was a causal factor in economic decline in the 23 counties it serves, then it would be anticipated that these negative effects would show evidence of increasing over time as the full impact of the rate increases took effect; therefore, it would be probable that negative effects would more likely to be observed during the period from 2013 to 2014 than during the period from 2012 to An examination of the data does not reveal this pattern (Table 18 page 50); for example, over the period from 2013 to 2014, the percentage rate of growth in the number of business establishments in the Mississippi Power Company Counties is slightly higher than that of the Non Mississippi Power Counties (0.17 percent as compared to 0.15 percent), these differences are statistically insignificant but are counterfactual to a finding of negative impact. Another example is the percentage rate of growth in total annual wages in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties which increased from 1.87 percent over the period from 2012 to 2013 and then increased again by 2.52 percent over the period from 2013 to 2014; in addition, the percentage rate of growth in total annual wages of 2.52 percent in the Mississippi Power Counties exceeds that of the Non Mississippi Power Counties (2.33 percent) during the period from 2013 to Although these differences are statistically insignificant, they provide further support for the statement that there is no evidence to support a finding that the utility rate increase by Mississippi Power Company negatively impacted the economies of the 23 counties it serves. It would also be anticipated that any negative economic causal effects of the rate increase would be reflected by relatively consistent patterns of change across all of the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties when these 23 counties were compared to one another (e.g. a consistent pattern of decline for a specific economic indicator or a consistent pattern of decline within one industry sector across all 23 counties see example for the Retail Trade Sector provided in Appendix B) and/or when the Mississippi Power Counties were compared to the Non Mississippi Power Counties. Such consistent patterns of change were not found. As discussed within the body of this study, specific Mississippi Power Company Counties exhibited relatively high percentage rates of growth in the number of business establishments, employment, total annual wages, or average annual pay within the context of the growth rates exhibited by the 59 Non Mississippi Power Counties in the state of Mississippi, and there is no consistent pattern of change when individual Mississippi Power Counties are compared with one another. These between county differences provide further support for the finding of no evidence to support a conclusion that the rate increase by Mississippi Power Company is detrimentally impacting the economies of the 23 counties within the state of Mississippi. 52

55 Appendix A: Additional Reference Maps LIII

56 This page intentionally left blank for purposes of formatting. LIV

57 Number of Business Establishment by County 2014 Number of Establishments DeSoto Marshall Benton 828 Alcorn 2, Tunica Tippah Tate Tishomingo ,564 Prentiss Union Panola 491 1,565-3,183 Lafayette , ,184-5, Lee Itawamba Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc 2, Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar Calhoun Grenada 567 Clay Webster 843 Sunflower Montgomery Leflore Carroll Washington ,564 Oktibbeha Choctaw 903 Lowndes 1, Holmes Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys Sharkey Issaquena Warren 1,105 Claiborne 137 Jefferson Franklin Adams 139 Wilkinson Amite Yazoo Leake Neshoba Kemper 465 Madison ,183 Scott Newton Lauderdale Hinds Rankin ,967 5,948 Copiah 461 Lincoln 791 Pike 1,013 3,790 Smith Jasper Clarke 192 Simpson Jones Wayne Covington 1, Lawrence Jeff Davis 193 Forrest Marion Greene 1, Lamar 1, Perry Walthall 163 George Pearl River Stone Jackson Harrison 2,384 Hancock 4, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Map 6: Number of Business Establishments by County 2914 LV

58 Employment Employment by County 2014 DeSoto Marshall 205-6,347 Benton Alcorn 51,529 5,497 Tunica 5,883 1,316 Tippah 13,291 6,348-14,643 Tate Tishomingo 9,813 5,357 5,902 14,644-33,343 Prentiss Union Panola 7,174 33,344-58,805 Lafayette 9,890 10,733 8,288 20,275 6,043 58, ,276 Lee Itawamba Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc 50,252 1,163 11,830 Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar 3,064 2,984 Calhoun 5,534 3,305 9,532 11,584 Grenada 10,155 Clay Webster 14,020 Sunflower Montgomery Leflore Carroll 1,985 5,006 8,648 2,515 Washington 1,106 1,925 Oktibbeha 24,529 17,417 Choctaw 19,227 Lowndes 2,326 Holmes Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys 3,636 4,526 4,561 2,484 Sharkey 1,224 Yazoo Leake Neshoba Kemper 205 6,347 Madison Issaquena 5,008 12,481 3,709 50,039 Scott Newton Lauderdale Warren Hinds Rankin 13,140 5,937 33,343 20, ,276 58,805 Smith Jasper Clarke 2,961 Claiborne Copiah 2,769 3,930 Simpson 3,318 Jefferson 7,075 7,311 Jones Wayne 1,346 5,046 1,618 Lincoln Covington 28,382 4,939 Franklin Lawrence Jeff Davis Adams 11,229 2,411 10,886 1,676 Forrest Marion Greene Wilkinson Amite 17,920 7,610 Pike Lamar 1,763 2,523 37,701 1,989 1,718 Perry Walthall 14,643 2,009 George Pearl River Stone 4,998 9,811 3,975 Jackson Harrison 49,221 Hancock 82,740 13,021 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Map 7: Employment by County 2014 LVI

59 Total Wages (in $1,000) by County 2014 DeSoto Marshall Benton Alcorn $1,687,912 Tunica $196,274$40,413 Tippah $439,394 Tate Tishomingo $294,960 $177,078 $165,084 Prentiss$165,691 Union Panola $210,373 Lafayette $375,969 $356,747 $753,639 $195,152 Lee Itawamba Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc $1,807,160 $274,150 $32,443 $360,783 Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar $91,741 $94,007 Calhoun $170,307 $96,528 $345,005 Grenada $382,971 Clay $255,299 $315,348 Webster $448,671 Sunflower Montgomery Leflore Carroll $57,684 $164,975 $72,535 Washington $31,375 Oktibbeha $955,623 Choctaw $655,140 Lowndes Holmes $72,047 $60,964 Attala Winston Noxubee $567,730 Humphreys $104,499 $135,858 $155,201 $70,928 Sharkey $34,283 Yazoo Leake Neshoba Kemper $229,081 Madison Issaquena $141,015 $420,872 $201,046 $4,538 $2,111,063 Scott Newton Lauderdale Warren Hinds Rankin $403,254 $176,584 $1,170,840 $819,292 $5,204,040 $2,181,973 Clarke Smith Jasper $166,034 Claiborne Copiah $99,328 $139,792 $93,078 Simpson Jefferson $233,915 $197,138 Jones Wayne $37,832 $155,811 Lincoln $48,288 Covington $1,082,926 $165,030 Franklin Lawrence Jeff Davis Adams $379,860 $359,693 $57,244 $103,455 Forrest Marion Greene Wilkinson Amite $253,842 $1,426,635 Pike Lamar $56,892 $73,303 $57,000 $49,686 Perry Walthall $445,886 $513,733 $78,309 Total Wages $4, $100, $100, $250, $250, $500, $500, $1,000, $1,000, $5,204, Pearl River $309,757 Stone $124,811 Harrison Hancock $3,012,614 $606,460 George $171,002 Jackson $2,363,445 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Map 8: Total Annual Wages by County 2014 LVII

60 Number of Personal Income Tax Returns Filed 2014 Number of Personal Income Tax Returns DeSoto Marshall Benton Alcorn 61,213 6,689 Tunica 12,506 2,357 Tippah 11,730 Tate Tishomingo 355-4,987 3,839 9,509 7,929 Prentiss Union 4,988-11,027 Panola 8,756 Lafayette 9,691 11,028-23,280 12,043 8,135 15,670 7,285 Lee Itawamba 23,281-48,204 Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc 34,396 2,327 10,535 48,205-90,928 Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar 4,070 4,987 Calhoun 8,261 6,780 4,873 12,067 11,696 Grenada Clay Webster 9,776 Sunflower Montgomery Leflore Carroll 3,278 6,952 7,556 3,902 Washington 2,898 2,624 Oktibbeha 20,548 Choctaw 14,757 Lowndes 16,949 2,712 Holmes Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys 6,227 6,394 6,230 3,615 Adams 11,027 Wilkinson 2,316 Sharkey 1, Issaquena Claiborne 2,566 Jefferson 2,302 Franklin 2,812 Amite 3,764 Yazoo 7,423 Warren Hinds 17,411 90,928 39,090 Madison Rankin 54,419 Leake 7,193 Scott 9,425 Smith Pearl River Hancock 14,536 Neshoba Newton 7,014 Jasper Copiah 4,848 Simpson 5,728 10,028 9,027 6,574 Jones 4,121 Lincoln Covington 23,280 Lawrence 11,681 Jeff Davis 4,649 Forrest Marion 17,304 8,792 Pike 4,633 Lamar 30,981 Perry Walthall 14,059 3,804 16,901 9,233 Stone 5,653 Harrison 68,832 Kemper 2,963 Lauderdale 27,834 Clarke 5,682 Wayne 6,890 Greene 3,246 George 8,078 Jackson 48,204 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2014 Map 9: Number of Personal Income Tax Returns Filed in 2014 by County LVIII

61 Average Annual Pay by County 2014 Average Annual Pay DeSoto Marshall Benton Alcorn $32,756 $22, $29, Tunica $33,365 $30,719 Tippah $33,060 Tate Tishomingo $29, $31, $30,058 $30,001 $30,814 Prentiss $30,143 Union $31, $35, Panola $29,326 Lafayette $38,013 $35, $42, $33,239 $37,171 $32,294 Lee Itawamba $42, $54, Coahoma Quitman Pontotoc $35,962 $33,076$27,886 $30,497 Tallahatchie Yalobusha Chickasaw Monroe Bolivar $29,939 $31,507 Calhoun $30,773 $29,206 $36,193 $33,060 Grenada Clay Webster $32,001 $31,052 Sunflower Montgomery Leflore Carroll $29,066 $32,956 $29,520 $28,840 Washington $28,380 Oktibbeha $38,959 Choctaw $34,073 Lowndes $32,597 Holmes $37,421 $26,209 Attala Winston Noxubee Humphreys $28,740 $30,016 $34,032 $28,558 Sharkey $28,021 Yazoo Leake Neshoba Kemper $36,093 Madison Issaquena $28,158 $33,721 $54,199 $22,146 $42,188 Scott Newton Lauderdale Warren Hinds Rankin $30,688 $29,744 $35,115 $40,165 $43,630 $37,105 Smith Jasper Clarke Claiborne $50,042 Copiah Simpson $35,875 $35,569 $31,436 Jefferson $33,063 $26,965 $28,117 $30,880 Jones Wayne Lincoln $29,847 Covington $38,156 $33,415 Franklin Lawrence Jeff Davis Adams $33,828 $42,918 $33,043 $34,155 Forrest Marion Greene Wilkinson Amite $28,668 $33,356 Pike Lamar $32,267 $29,059 $28,658 $28,929 $37,840 Perry Walthall $30,450 $38,984 Statewide Average Annual Pay Minimum: $22,146 Maximum: $54,199 Mean: $33,368 Median: $32,445 Standard Deviation: $5,376 Pearl River $31,574 Hancock $46,576 Stone $31,397 Harrison $36,411 George $34,215 Jackson $48,017 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Map 10: Average Annual Pay by County 2014 LIX

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63 Appendix B: Comparing Retail Trade Sector Employment Change in 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties LXI

64 Figure 21: Retail Trade Sector Employment in Mississippi Power Counties 2001 to 2014 LXII

65 A Closer Look at the Retail Trade Sector: the Unique Characteristics of County-Level Economies As stated within the body of this study, there was no evidence to support a finding that the retail utility rate increase by Mississippi Power Company is negatively impacting economic growth across the 23 counties served by Mississippi Power Company. In addition to the analysis presented in the body of this study, the Stennis Institute Research Team further examined the data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for selected industries to determine if there might be underlying patterns of negative economic effects among specific industry sectors that may have remained unobserved during the data analysis presented in the body of this study. Although multiple industry sectors were examined by the Research Team, the presentation of these industry sector findings were not included in this report for the following reasons: the findings were generally redundant across industry sectors; the figures and tables associated with this analysis are not easily formatted for high resolution to a standard page size of 8.5 x 11; inclusion of this analysis would have increased the length of the completed study to approximately 300 pages; and the presentation of industry sector analysis would not change the findings presented in the body of this report For purposes of illustration, this appendix provides an example of the change in employment in the Retail Trade Sector across the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties. If the utility rate increase by Mississippi Power Company was negatively impacting economic growth across the 23 counties that it serves, one effect that would be anticipated is a decline in employment or slowing of growth in employment during the period from 2012 to It would also be anticipated that the impact of the rate increases would be more pronounced over the period from 2013 to 2014 when compared to the period from 2012 to 2013 because the retail rate increase of 13 percent took effect on March 19, 2013 and then increased by an additional 3 percent effective January 1, 2014; therefore, employment data for 2014 would more fully capture the total effect of the retail rate increases on the economies of the 23 Mississippi Power Counties. Another expectation would be a lower rate of employment growth in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties when compared to the rate of employment growth in the 59 Non-Mississippi Power Company Counties, and that this difference would become more pronounced over the period from 2013 to 2014 when compared to the period from 2012 to Additionally, if the utility rate increase by Mississippi Power Company was negatively impacting economic growth across the 23 counties that it serves, it would be anticipated that these effects would be exhibited across all of the 23 counties and that a consistent pattern of change would be observed across all counties within a specific industry. Examination of the ratio of employment in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties as a percent of total employment in the state of Mississippi contributes to the illumination of comparative negative economic effects if this ratio is declining over time. Across the Mississippi Power Counties, employment in the Retail Trade Sector increased by 700, from 45,270 in 2012 to 45,970 in 2014 (Figure 21, page LXII). LXIII

66 Figure 22: Percent Change in Retail Trade Sector Employment 2001 to 2014 LXIV

67 When employment growth in the Retail Trade Sector in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties is compared to employment growth in the 59 Non-Mississippi Power Company Counties, the data exhibit the following characteristics (Figure 22, page LXIV): Over the period from 2007 through 2012, the annual percentage growth rate of employment in the Non-Mississippi Power Company Counties outperformed that of the Mississippi Power Company Counties; the percentage rate of increase has been higher and the percentage rate of decrease has been lower in the Non-Mississippi Power Counties as compared to the Mississippi Power Counties In the period just prior to the rate increase 2011 to 2012 employment in the Mississippi Power Counties declined by 0.53 percent; during the same period, employment in the Non- Mississippi Power Counties increased by 0.73 percent In the one-year period following the rate increase 2012 to 2013 employment in the Retail Trade Sector increase by 0.22 percent in the 23 Mississippi Power Counties; during the same period, employment in the Non-Mississippi Power Counties showed no change From 2013 to 2014, employment in the Retail Trade Sector increased by 1.32 percent in the Mississippi Power Counties as compared to an increase of 1.36 percent in the Non-Mississippi Power Counties, this represented a difference of 0.04 percent Over the period from 2012 to 2014, employment in the Retail Trade Sector increased by 1.55 percent in the Mississippi Power Counties as compared to an increase of 1.36 percent in the Non-Mississippi Power Counties, indicating the percentage rate of employment growth in the Mississippi Power Counties exceed that of the Non-Mississippi Power Counties over the period With total employment of 45,970 in the Retail Trade Sector in 2014, the 23 Mississippi Power Counties represented percent of total Retail Trade Sector employment in the state of Mississippi, this represented a slight increase of 0.04 percent in the Mississippi Power Counties ratio of total state employment in 2012 (Figure 23, at right). As shown in Figure 23, at right, the Mississippi Power Company Counties ratio of Retail Trade Sector employment has exhibited a decline every year in the period from 2008 through 2012 and those declines have been steeper than the 0.01 percent decline that was experienced over the period from 2013 to Figure 23: Employment in the Retail Trade Sector in Mississippi Power Counties expressed as a Percent of Total Retail Trade Sector Employment Statewide 2001 to 2014 LXV

68 Table 19: Employment in the Retail Trade Sector 2012 to 2014 County Employment 2012 Employment 2013 Employment 2014 Change 2012 to 2013 Percent Change 2012 to 2013 Change 2013 to 2014 Percent Change 2013 to 2014 Change 2012 to 2014 Percent Change 2012 to 2014 Greene % % % Jefferson Davis % % % Smith (10) 4.76% % % Perry % % % Jasper % (20) 5.56% (20) 5.56% Clarke (10) 2.70% (10) 2.78% (20) 5.41% Covington % % % Stone % % % Newton (10) 1.47% (30) 4.48% (40) 5.88% Leake % (20) 2.60% % Wayne (20) 2.35% % (10) 1.18% George % % % Scott 1,150 1,150 1, % % % Marion 1,260 1,230 1,280 (30) 2.38% % % Neshoba 1,460 1,490 1, % % % Hancock 1,430 1,520 1, % (10) 0.66% % Pearl River 1,900 1,890 1,990 (10) 0.53% % % Jones 2,920 2,840 2,830 (80) 2.74% (10) 0.35% (90) 3.08% Forrest 4,150 4,160 4, % (110) 2.64% (100) 2.41% Lamar 4,400 4,460 4, % % % Jackson 4,760 4,730 4,720 (30) 0.63% (10) 0.21% (40) 0.84% Lauderdale 5,150 5,140 5,230 (10) 0.19% % % Harrison 10,870 10,940 11, % % % Total Mississippi Power Counties 45,270 45,370 45, % % % Total Non Mississippi Power Counties Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 88,230 88,230 89, % 1, % 1, % LXVI

69 From 2012 to 2014, employment in the Retail Trade Sector increased by 700 in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties, this represented an increase of 1.55 percent; during the same period, employment increased by 1,200 in the Non-Mississippi Power Company Counties, an increase of 1.36 percent (Table 19, page LXVI). This indicates that the percentage rate of employment increase in the Retail Trade Sector was 0.19 percent higher in the Mississippi Power Company Counties when compared to the percentage rate of increase in employment in the Non-Mississippi Power Counties. For the Mississippi Power Company Counties, the rate of increase in employment accelerated over the period from 2013 to 2014 as compared to the period from 2012 to 2013, increasing by 0.22 percent from 2012 to 2013 and by 1.32 percent from 2013 to 2014 (Table 19, page LXVI). When employment in the Retail Trade Sector is analyzed at the county level for the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties over the period from 2012 to 2014, there are between-county difference in the patterns of change in employment. As shown in Table 19, on page LXVI, there are relatively large between-county differences in the change in Retail Trade Sector employment and this change in employment varies depending upon the time period examined. For example, Lamar County experienced employment increases in the Retail Trade Sector over the period from 2012 to 2013 and over the period from 2013 to 2014; with a net increase in Retail Trade employment of 240 over the period from 2012 to 2014, Lamar County s employment in the Retail Trade Sector increase by 5.45 percent. Pearl River County s employment in the Retail Trade Sector declined by 10 over the period from 2012 to 2013 and then increased by 100 over the period from 2013 to 2014, netting an increase of 4.74 percent in Retail Trade Sector employment from 2012 to 2014 (Table 19, page LXVI). Generally, the number and percentage of counties that exhibit an increase in employment is greater over the period from 2013 to 2014 when compared with the period from 2012 to 2013; from 2013 to 2014, the number of counties experiencing a decrease or no growth in employment also declines (Table 20, below). For example, 13 of the 23 Mississippi Power Counties (56.5 percent) exhibit an increase in employment from 2013 to 2014 as compared to 7 counties (30.4 percent) over the period from 2012 to When employment growth in the Retail Trade Sector is analyzed over the period from 2012 to 2014, 60.9 percent of the Mississippi Power Company Counties exhibit an increase in employment, 30.4 percent exhibit a decrease in employment, and 8.7 percent experienced no change in employment over the period. Table 20: Change in Retail Trade Sector Employment in 23 Mississippi Power Counties 2012 to 2014 Change 2012 to 2013 Percent of Total 2012 to 2013 Change 2013 to 2014 Percent of Total 2013 to 2014 Change 2012 to 1014 Percent of Total 2012 to 2014 Counties with an Increase in Employment % % % Counties with a Decrease in Employment % % % Counties with No Change in Employment % % % Total % % % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages LXVII

70 Figure 24: Mississippi Power Counties with Retail Trade Sector Employment of 350 or Less in 2014 Figure 25: Mississippi Power Counties with Retail Trade Sector Employment between 520 and 980 in 2014 LXVIII

71 Over the period from 2012 to 2014, employment in the Retail Trade Sector increased by 700 in the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties, this represented 58.3 percent of the total increase in Retail Trade Sector employment in the state of Mississippi. Within the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties, percent of the counties exhibited an increase in Retail Trade Sector employment. The patterns of between-county employment change in the Retail Trade Sector exhibit no consistent, negative pattern across the 23 counties and provide no evidence to indicate that a relationship may exist between the retail rate increase by the Mississippi Power Company and a decline in employment in the Retail Trade Sector (Table 19, on page LXVI and Table 20, on page LXVII). Figure 24 and Figure 25, on page LXVIII and Figure 26 and Figure 27 on page LXX provide longitudinal Retail Trade Sector employment data over the period from 2001 to 2014 for the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties. An examination of historical employment trends in the Retail Trade Sector provides additional insight into patterns of employment within the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties. One pattern that emerges for specific counties is a long-term decline of employment in the Retail Trade Sector that commenced prior to 2013 and continued through 2014; this pattern was most commonly observed in the counties that exhibited no growth or a decline in Retail Trade Sector employment in Table 19, on page LXVI. See for example, Jasper and Clarke counties (Figure 24, page LXVIII), Jones County (Figure 26, page LXX), and Forrest and Jackson counties (Figure 27, page LXX). Another pattern that emerges for specific counties is one of decline or no growth of employment in the Retail Trade Sector originating prior to 2013 and then beginning to exhibit an increase over the period from 2013 to 2014; see for example, Greene, Smith, and Perry counties (Figure 24, page LXVIII), Covington, Stone, and Wayne counties (Figure 25, page LXVIII), Scott, Marion, and Pearl River counties (Figure 26, page LXX), and Lauderdale County (Figure 27, LXX). Additional data for the annual percentage rate of employment change in the Retail Trade Sector for each of the 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties is provide in Table 21, on page LXXI. The absence of consistent, negative patterns of employment change in the Retail Trade Sector that would be indicative of negative economic effects across all 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties over the period from 2012 to 2014 reinforce the findings that are discussed in the body of this report. LXIX

72 Figure 26: Mississippi Power Company Counties with Retail Trade Sector Employment between 1,180 and 2,830 in 2014 Figure 27: Mississippi Power Company Counties with Retail Trade Sector Employment between 4,050 and 11,130 in 2014 LXX

73 Table 21: Annual Percentage Change in Retail Trade Sector Employment for 23 Mississippi Power Company Counties 2001 through 2014 Area to Clarke 0.00% 0.00% 3.23% 3.13% 6.06% 2.86% 11.76% 2.63% 2.70% 0.00% 2.78% 2.70% 2.78% Covington 11.36% 2.04% 4.00% 2.08% 4.26% 2.04% 4.00% 1.92% 1.89% 3.85% 8.00% 6.52% 6.12% Forrest 3.09% 4.28% 1.23% 1.04% 6.09% 3.76% 8.23% 4.71% 1.41% 0.24% 1.19% 0.24% 2.64% George 8.67% 7.98% 6.82% 2.44% 7.14% 5.56% 0.00% 1.18% 1.19% 5.88% 2.22% 0.00% 6.52% Greene 10.00% 9.09% 5.00% 4.76% 0.00% 9.09% 5.00% 10.53% 5.88% 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 10.53% Hancock 0.00% 1.81% 1.18% 18.56% 2.94% 23.48% 6.13% 7.19% 7.04% 2.27% 5.93% 6.29% 0.66% Harrison 1.59% 3.24% 0.66% 7.22% 0.80% 0.79% 3.48% 4.69% 1.89% 1.21% 0.28% 0.64% 1.74% Jackson 9.02% 4.62% 5.56% 1.33% 4.62% 0.00% 3.13% 6.45% 3.45% 1.26% 1.24% 0.63% 0.21% Jasper 2.22% 0.00% 2.27% 4.65% 4.88% 2.33% 2.38% 0.00% 2.44% 5.00% 5.26% 0.00% 5.56% Jeff Davis 23.53% 19.23% 3.23% 10.00% 0.00% 3.03% 0.00% 5.88% 15.63% 14.81% 4.35% 0.00% 0.00% Jones 4.24% 0.63% 1.27% 3.77% 1.52% 0.30% 3.57% 7.10% 1.99% 1.36% 2.34% 2.74% 0.35% Lamar 4.92% 0.97% 6.21% 13.85% 13.51% 6.19% 1.12% 5.10% 0.47% 1.17% 2.09% 1.36% 4.04% Lauderdale 9.64% 1.72% 2.54% 1.57% 0.18% 1.41% 1.22% 6.16% 0.75% 2.84% 0.19% 0.19% 1.75% Leake 5.95% 7.59% 1.37% 5.56% 1.32% 2.60% 1.33% 4.05% 2.60% 1.33% 1.35% 2.67% 2.60% Marion 1.85% 9.43% 3.45% 0.83% 7.44% 0.77% 0.76% 4.62% 0.81% 3.20% 2.33% 2.38% 4.07% Neshoba 2.17% 0.74% 1.49% 3.79% 6.57% 1.37% 0.69% 2.07% 2.11% 2.07% 1.35% 2.05% 0.00% Newton 0.00% 6.10% 11.69% 1.16% 2.35% 9.64% 6.67% 1.43% 1.45% 2.94% 3.03% 1.47% 4.48% Pearl River 1.39% 1.83% 3.26% 1.44% 11.37% 0.43% 5.98% 6.82% 4.88% 1.54% 1.04% 0.53% 5.29% Perry 3.33% 3.23% 6.67% 6.25% 6.67% 10.71% 4.00% 3.85% 7.41% 8.00% 4.35% 0.00% 13.64% Scott 1.71% 0.84% 1.69% 0.86% 3.42% 7.44% 0.77% 3.05% 4.72% 2.48% 2.54% 0.00% 2.61% Smith 0.00% 7.14% 15.38% 0.00% 4.55% 0.00% 4.35% 4.55% 4.76% 0.00% 4.55% 4.76% 10.00% Stone 37.14% 27.08% 3.28% 3.39% 8.20% 1.52% 7.46% 1.61% 0.00% 4.92% 7.81% 0.00% 1.69% Wayne 11.58% 1.89% 5.77% 2.04% 1.04% 3.09% 3.19% 3.30% 1.14% 1.15% 3.41% 2.35% 1.20% Average Across Mississippi Power Company Counties Average Across Non Mississippi Power Counties 0.36% 1.05% 0.82% 1.41% 3.71% 0.83% 2.90% 4.86% 1.05% 0.33% 0.53% 0.22% 1.32% 1.84% 2.61% 0.45% 0.75% 1.81% 0.34% 0.93% 4.23% 0.37% 0.63% 0.73% 0.00% 1.36% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Percentage Change in Retail Trade Sector Employment 2001 through 2014 LXXI

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75 Appendix C: Data Used in this Study This appendix contains a copy of the data that was used to conduct this study; a copy of this report is available on the Stennis Institute of Government s website at in.pdf format where the pages may be magnified for easier viewing of the data. LXXIV

76 Employment Data County County Adams 11,617 11,617 12,116 12,203 12,297 11,471 11,041 11,015 10,784 10,776 10,886 Leflore 14,900 15,161 15,649 15,946 15,406 14,636 14,329 13,973 13,886 13,762 14,020 Alcorn 13,157 13,483 13,195 13,242 12,979 12,377 12,469 12,569 13,023 13,126 13,291 Lincoln 11,618 11,919 12,051 11,832 11,549 10,985 10,803 10,880 10,938 11,084 11,229 Amite 1,814 1,888 2,167 2,211 2,106 1,736 1,687 1,677 1,601 1,624 1,763 Lowndes 24,241 24,273 25,349 25,766 25,425 24,205 23,639 24,324 25,355 25,681 24,529 Attala 5,434 5,378 5,287 5,212 5,066 4,645 4,612 4,649 4,609 4,571 4,526 Madison 40,521 41,568 42,551 42,597 42,185 40,740 42,404 44,376 46,635 48,644 50,039 Benton 1,188 1,279 1,292 1,227 1,177 1,138 1,208 1,302 1,318 1,318 1,316 Marion 7,620 7,496 7,769 7,722 7,700 7,549 7,428 7,691 7,357 7,401 7,610 Bolivar 11,848 11,959 12,521 12,522 12,209 11,862 12,176 12,038 11,842 11,737 11,584 Marshall 6,107 6,245 6,178 6,259 6,152 5,888 5,986 5,857 5,716 5,641 5,883 Calhoun 3,643 3,618 3,521 3,401 3,317 3,310 3,489 3,508 3,411 3,315 3,305 Monroe 10,926 11,034 10,684 10,531 9,826 9,331 9,505 9,394 9,295 9,106 9,532 Carroll 1,089 1,177 1,163 1,183 1,166 1,045 1,049 1,109 1,169 1,097 1,106 Montgome 2,879 2,814 2,586 2,534 2,583 2,589 2,627 2,582 2,570 2,576 2,515 Chickasaw 6,415 6,334 6,328 5,951 5,666 5,598 5,925 6,073 6,015 5,821 5,534 Neshoba 14,291 14,682 14,636 14,133 14,209 13,021 12,645 12,655 12,717 12,334 12,481 Choctaw 2,052 2,063 1,947 1,954 1,885 1,803 1,776 1,820 1,863 2,030 1,925 Newton 6,423 6,413 6,449 6,452 6,196 5,851 5,755 5,789 5,917 5,889 5,937 Claiborne 3,413 3,276 3,145 3,148 3,223 3,228 3,397 3,495 4,116 3,196 3,318 Noxubee 3,234 3,044 2,959 2,840 2,623 2,449 2,501 2,439 2,443 2,447 2,484 Clarke 2,880 2,834 2,954 3,005 3,055 3,049 2,917 2,983 3,149 3,062 2,961 Oktibbeha 16,749 17,411 17,854 17,813 18,486 17,804 17,296 17,761 18,357 18,709 19,227 Clay 7,446 7,115 6,799 6,051 5,542 5,174 5,049 4,988 5,074 5,013 5,006 Panola 10,213 10,560 10,982 11,020 10,721 10,442 10,888 10,784 10,764 10,622 10,733 Coahoma 9,491 9,417 9,220 8,949 8,736 8,473 8,497 8,446 8,368 8,291 8,288 Pearl River 9,465 9,510 10,143 10,744 10,416 9,991 9,674 9,814 9,898 9,882 9,811 Copiah 7,642 7,696 7,872 7,776 7,929 7,563 7,107 7,519 7,137 7,070 7,075 Perry 2,392 2,372 2,384 2,375 2,264 2,074 2,053 2,021 2,011 1,985 2,009 Covington 5,146 5,052 4,912 5,128 5,118 4,999 4,861 4,980 5,026 4,966 5,046 Pike 15,101 15,308 15,684 15,496 15,801 15,016 14,573 14,311 14,399 14,421 14,643 DeSoto 37,442 39,897 43,189 46,156 45,769 43,721 44,427 45,326 47,417 48,563 51,529 Pontotoc 11,253 11,664 12,005 11,458 10,693 10,275 10,711 10,865 11,210 11,408 11,830 Forrest 35,038 35,986 37,251 37,132 36,581 36,358 36,085 35,723 36,604 36,798 37,701 Prentiss 8,123 7,751 7,805 7,705 7,739 7,174 7,104 7,046 7,098 7,015 7,174 Franklin 1,633 1,686 1,765 1,739 1,673 1,629 1,708 1,682 1,660 1,663 1,676 Quitman 1,786 1,786 1,728 1,650 1,524 1,394 1,341 1,246 1,238 1,199 1,163 George 4,082 4,408 4,372 4,500 4,852 4,497 4,204 4,269 4,414 4,489 4,998 Rankin 50,365 52,247 54,827 56,492 56,938 54,741 54,404 54,455 55,848 56,765 58,805 Greene 1,931 1,944 2,115 2,064 2,005 1,958 1,962 1,965 1,969 2,019 1,989 Scott 11,744 12,263 12,446 12,508 12,815 12,938 13,177 12,728 12,534 12,837 13,140 Grenada 10,709 10,837 10,749 10,454 10,366 9,306 9,390 9,561 9,753 9,886 10,155 Sharkey 1,426 1,408 1,371 1,370 1,318 1,270 1,286 1,236 1,239 1,236 1,224 Hancock 13,470 12,790 11,693 13,427 13,661 13,721 13,610 13,353 13,309 13,204 13,021 Simpson 7,344 7,620 7,411 7,592 7,439 7,259 7,405 7,415 7,406 7,331 7,311 Harrison 89,631 86,148 79,241 86,123 86,248 83,646 81,954 82,503 82,584 82,878 82,740 Smith 3,377 3,337 3,294 3,246 2,982 2,858 2,796 2,772 2,715 2,752 2,769 Hinds 129, , , , , , , , , , ,276 Stone 3,811 3,977 4,249 4,312 4,279 4,124 4,043 4,072 3,906 3,939 3,975 Holmes 3,780 4,008 4,325 4,288 4,133 3,749 3,719 3,730 3,714 3,612 3,636 Sunflower 9,953 10,122 10,476 10,012 9,690 9,378 9,008 8,865 8,881 8,750 8,648 Humphreys 3,343 3,299 3,208 3,358 3,342 3,229 3,166 2,984 2,785 2,902 2,326 Tallahatchi 2,912 2,957 2,853 2,767 2,725 2,712 2,774 2,834 2,779 2,926 3,064 Issaquena Tate 5,892 5,754 5,692 5,645 5,554 5,395 5,418 5,421 5,414 5,373 5,357 Itawamba 5,229 5,554 5,660 5,750 5,684 5,231 5,152 5,415 5,697 5,684 6,043 Tippah 7,057 7,266 7,221 7,102 6,340 5,702 5,650 5,665 5,646 5,668 5,902 Jackson 46,995 47,840 48,381 49,617 51,726 50,858 51,511 48,336 47,974 49,239 49,221 Tishomingo 5,605 5,611 5,956 5,728 5,629 5,173 5,060 5,129 5,222 5,376 5,497 Jasper 4,004 4,077 4,259 4,282 4,318 4,273 4,511 4,246 4,280 4,124 3,930 Tunica 15,841 15,575 15,787 15,455 14,587 13,014 12,266 11,581 11,312 10,855 9,813 Jefferson Davis 2,114 2,170 2,069 2,057 2,364 1,977 1,752 1,683 1,649 1,581 1,618 Union 8,285 8,571 8,559 8,792 8,857 8,379 7,901 8,901 9,674 9,807 9,890 Jefferson 1,130 1,098 1,123 1,142 1,144 1,150 1,224 1,238 1,294 1,306 1,346 Walthall 2,806 2,866 2,958 3,021 2,979 2,715 2,704 2,633 2,599 2,560 2,523 Jones 27,101 28,427 30,320 30,479 29,643 27,895 26,991 27,823 28,248 28,086 28,382 Warren 23,693 23,718 23,779 23,316 23,666 21,989 21,508 20,955 20,618 20,650 20,398 Kemper 1,765 1,789 1,704 1,671 1,670 1,666 1,654 2,071 3,244 5,103 3,709 Washingto 20,920 20,042 19,633 19,790 19,866 18,575 18,329 18,122 17,722 17,516 17,417 Lafayette 16,117 17,097 18,066 18,410 18,426 17,587 17,448 18,069 18,952 19,577 20,275 Wayne 5,347 5,426 5,462 5,567 5,425 5,092 5,106 5,102 5,055 4,862 4,939 Lamar 13,669 14,280 16,470 18,168 18,259 17,299 17,182 17,127 17,590 17,934 17,920 Webster 2,110 2,245 2,134 2,162 2,119 2,075 2,137 2,099 2,060 2,019 1,985 Lauderdale 35,315 35,711 36,189 36,276 36,104 34,114 33,519 33,355 33,315 33,400 33,343 Wilkinson 1,979 1,915 1,878 1,915 2,016 2,184 2,271 2,204 2,066 1,844 1,718 Lawrence 2,782 2,658 2,670 2,738 2,881 2,747 2,664 2,492 2,526 2,518 2,411 Winston 5,123 5,308 5,448 5,581 5,485 4,621 4,413 4,552 4,588 4,599 4,561 Leake 5,972 5,802 5,521 5,478 5,763 5,842 5,663 5,221 5,047 5,084 5,008 Yalobusha 2,951 2,727 2,816 2,839 2,926 2,852 3,042 3,088 3,246 3,002 2,984 Lee 49,870 50,286 50,425 49,917 50,229 47,575 48,370 48,952 50,465 50,536 50,252 Yazoo 5,946 5,845 5,887 6,077 5,978 5,877 6,085 6,106 6,084 6,189 6,347 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

77 Total Annual Wages in $1,000 County County Adams $287,988 $305,136 $344,471 $359,602 $374,963 $330,974 $325,390 $335,822 $344,479 $348,905 $359,693 Leflore $383,681 $403,732 $432,627 $453,142 $450,740 $431,990 $429,971 $436,744 $456,383 $441,063 $448,671 Alcorn $357,081 $370,390 $374,493 $388,491 $400,960 $389,741 $395,912 $401,477 $416,567 $418,963 $439,394 Lincoln $309,743 $327,244 $361,143 $348,436 $351,015 $336,809 $341,816 $349,009 $358,364 $366,262 $379,860 Amite $42,716 $46,231 $57,537 $61,239 $60,266 $45,966 $46,992 $46,613 $44,903 $48,791 $56,892 Lowndes $680,213 $707,209 $775,900 $851,753 $871,168 $843,295 $833,124 $889,044 $965,169 $1,007,397 $955,623 Attala $122,689 $125,214 $128,828 $134,169 $145,303 $134,480 $131,670 $133,030 $130,864 $135,395 $135,858 Madison $1,247,751 $1,323,639 $1,420,699 $1,474,184 $1,510,400 $1,469,945 $1,586,707 $1,702,845 $1,879,921 $2,023,273 $2,111,063 Benton $30,067 $33,803 $35,334 $34,488 $33,465 $32,833 $36,287 $37,609 $40,483 $39,059 $40,413 Marion $176,461 $185,215 $201,969 $209,484 $221,632 $222,293 $231,479 $241,257 $236,325 $244,556 $253,842 Bolivar $299,788 $310,604 $340,705 $394,622 $346,817 $345,487 $359,386 $370,614 $389,811 $381,127 $382,971 Marshall $152,560 $158,543 $164,946 $177,622 $189,168 $187,260 $185,610 $183,421 $181,528 $185,004 $196,274 Calhoun $81,658 $83,966 $84,350 $84,151 $82,589 $84,599 $89,894 $92,327 $94,138 $95,583 $96,528 Monroe $311,706 $321,684 $327,150 $328,670 $315,248 $295,502 $313,180 $313,780 $314,400 $319,406 $345,005 Carroll $23,431 $26,597 $27,933 $28,941 $30,194 $26,843 $28,662 $31,004 $33,192 $30,668 $31,375 Montgomery $58,290 $58,430 $57,201 $57,089 $61,239 $63,180 $66,639 $68,666 $69,871 $73,866 $72,535 Chickasaw $159,359 $159,738 $164,377 $154,927 $152,427 $156,304 $170,347 $175,130 $176,143 $171,661 $170,307 Neshoba $367,113 $391,817 $426,107 $414,093 $434,672 $399,061 $394,683 $389,171 $415,484 $413,280 $420,872 Choctaw $58,335 $61,168 $56,705 $58,373 $60,172 $58,469 $59,962 $61,881 $63,920 $75,367 $72,047 Newton $159,213 $159,854 $170,069 $172,742 $171,095 $160,296 $163,231 $166,649 $171,475 $173,224 $176,584 Claiborne $144,781 $144,633 $142,206 $146,882 $150,017 $148,276 $168,975 $175,047 $246,946 $158,059 $166,034 Noxubee $74,242 $73,162 $73,863 $73,525 $69,234 $63,535 $65,018 $64,308 $66,008 $67,664 $70,928 Clarke $65,179 $66,182 $74,085 $80,325 $82,771 $80,308 $81,517 $86,412 $100,614 $93,616 $93,078 Oktibbeha $455,442 $486,086 $511,447 $547,258 $584,977 $572,494 $580,488 $596,251 $615,273 $629,748 $655,140 Clay $204,078 $196,211 $202,187 $184,546 $170,268 $156,646 $149,391 $152,575 $159,557 $164,068 $164,975 Panola $257,330 $273,815 $297,301 $304,835 $313,674 $308,944 $330,343 $335,691 $348,891 $347,847 $356,747 Coahoma $248,133 $261,294 $257,263 $257,746 $252,448 $253,320 $259,139 $263,168 $265,735 $276,338 $274,150 Pearl River $220,817 $237,423 $273,069 $288,996 $296,516 $288,475 $288,963 $295,930 $304,087 $307,096 $309,757 Copiah $184,204 $190,820 $198,107 $201,336 $213,688 $204,968 $195,912 $227,270 $222,569 $224,235 $233,915 Perry $78,724 $77,155 $82,490 $83,464 $80,036 $74,192 $73,282 $74,998 $76,778 $77,216 $78,309 Covington $114,218 $120,125 $124,879 $134,959 $137,227 $138,692 $142,545 $146,036 $148,145 $147,563 $155,811 Pike $354,226 $374,966 $402,524 $409,469 $449,408 $410,987 $412,714 $415,122 $428,563 $438,074 $445,886 DeSoto $1,026,927 $1,133,579 $1,248,548 $1,366,282 $1,386,329 $1,340,796 $1,373,420 $1,425,996 $1,517,028 $1,570,289 $1,687,912 Pontotoc $301,827 $311,230 $328,983 $319,155 $295,519 $291,597 $307,123 $318,811 $330,737 $336,471 $360,783 Forrest $1,025,415 $1,081,535 $1,194,198 $1,238,326 $1,252,000 $1,262,003 $1,270,164 $1,278,023 $1,350,325 $1,364,808 $1,426,635 Prentiss $200,106 $198,492 $200,910 $209,211 $215,297 $195,871 $196,573 $197,916 $202,134 $202,168 $210,373 Franklin $42,263 $45,611 $49,863 $49,634 $49,492 $49,892 $53,447 $54,849 $54,378 $55,928 $57,244 Quitman $39,705 $41,024 $40,295 $39,877 $36,708 $34,886 $34,556 $32,731 $33,926 $33,012 $32,443 George $95,688 $112,595 $114,759 $124,394 $160,281 $149,858 $124,619 $127,783 $135,232 $140,335 $171,002 Rankin $1,522,123 $1,620,241 $1,776,007 $1,878,160 $1,954,101 $1,842,964 $1,866,632 $1,903,889 $1,996,746 $2,066,739 $2,181,973 Greene $44,568 $45,500 $52,097 $55,502 $55,332 $54,004 $54,045 $55,606 $54,155 $55,706 $57,000 Scott $277,669 $294,725 $313,078 $324,234 $337,430 $351,907 $357,215 $364,809 $366,867 $384,215 $403,254 Grenada $290,302 $295,798 $310,922 $297,651 $295,630 $270,719 $286,682 $290,380 $298,274 $305,347 $315,348 Sharkey $29,591 $30,602 $30,417 $31,344 $31,422 $31,692 $32,612 $32,776 $33,562 $33,390 $34,283 Hancock $476,141 $498,740 $510,154 $561,752 $584,145 $603,724 $610,980 $604,282 $612,017 $599,223 $606,460 Simpson $153,986 $160,974 $167,463 $182,237 $178,745 $178,338 $186,854 $191,660 $194,748 $197,256 $197,138 Harrison $2,512,014 $2,658,723 $2,674,282 $2,948,057 $3,011,830 $2,953,311 $2,866,536 $2,906,516 $2,926,914 $2,962,035 $3,012,614 Smith $93,174 $95,221 $95,643 $93,812 $88,385 $86,852 $86,625 $90,195 $89,590 $93,004 $99,328 Hinds $4,474,109 $4,533,727 $4,771,297 $4,940,918 $5,022,435 $5,032,289 $4,986,897 $5,038,510 $5,074,945 $5,143,921 $5,204,040 Stone $97,008 $103,684 $117,240 $122,412 $123,534 $122,115 $123,835 $122,208 $119,383 $120,918 $124,811 Holmes $89,715 $99,963 $108,591 $113,606 $111,974 $101,627 $101,940 $105,889 $104,622 $106,328 $104,499 Sunflower $223,282 $229,771 $243,151 $250,347 $253,572 $256,557 $251,194 $252,808 $260,223 $257,792 $255,299 Humphreys $65,142 $67,315 $67,958 $73,359 $77,203 $74,837 $73,787 $69,130 $68,385 $69,549 $60,964 Tallahatchie $62,357 $65,575 $65,292 $68,044 $68,490 $67,834 $70,746 $75,338 $76,697 $86,259 $91,741 Issaquena $5,982 $5,781 $5,424 $6,157 $6,284 $7,123 $6,650 $5,895 $5,857 $4,477 $4,538 Tate $144,359 $147,606 $151,791 $153,817 $154,515 $154,486 $158,220 $163,777 $166,662 $167,106 $165,084 Itawamba $130,941 $147,731 $154,706 $164,827 $168,329 $154,732 $154,494 $162,598 $173,402 $179,018 $195,152 Tippah $181,793 $192,789 $196,691 $200,933 $179,894 $160,883 $164,464 $170,364 $169,057 $171,524 $177,078 Jackson $1,555,278 $1,702,235 $1,799,457 $1,993,276 $2,257,542 $2,258,617 $2,283,393 $2,200,711 $2,205,912 $2,345,459 $2,363,445 Tishomingo $137,574 $140,364 $153,233 $152,934 $154,790 $141,293 $142,534 $146,276 $151,185 $159,371 $165,691 Jasper $101,782 $110,177 $120,950 $126,737 $137,607 $137,273 $153,619 $141,854 $148,290 $140,112 $139,792 Tunica $412,594 $412,461 $434,202 $431,793 $422,772 $363,391 $354,688 $334,341 $330,625 $314,153 $294,960 Jefferson Davis $46,961 $50,734 $52,946 $55,942 $94,410 $68,914 $54,971 $53,277 $50,956 $46,815 $48,288 Union $211,249 $220,269 $222,442 $239,325 $253,899 $242,253 $234,593 $291,613 $331,538 $360,415 $375,969 Jefferson $25,389 $25,468 $26,680 $28,891 $31,632 $31,661 $33,461 $34,382 $36,525 $37,244 $37,832 Walthall $59,676 $64,947 $72,695 $76,755 $77,842 $70,706 $71,230 $68,875 $69,925 $70,622 $73,303 Jones $747,838 $823,800 $909,222 $958,497 $981,107 $925,310 $933,464 $976,739 $1,020,431 $1,030,677 $1,082,926 Warren $737,161 $772,306 $809,773 $815,809 $886,575 $804,575 $803,707 $811,585 $804,318 $813,623 $819,292 Kemper $37,882 $40,057 $40,350 $42,178 $42,269 $42,486 $42,122 $62,243 $125,047 $245,611 $201,046 Washington $537,889 $538,357 $540,491 $563,595 $591,225 $555,675 $562,112 $562,016 $563,714 $563,683 $567,730 Lafayette $463,000 $514,001 $561,428 $596,231 $619,445 $604,040 $607,278 $631,517 $684,893 $717,301 $753,639 Wayne $130,026 $140,646 $150,644 $155,146 $154,681 $144,073 $150,954 $154,135 $157,975 $156,218 $165,030 Lamar $325,252 $345,096 $409,768 $450,518 $474,133 $465,020 $462,189 $474,651 $489,733 $504,850 $513,733 Webster $46,929 $53,344 $52,965 $52,920 $55,175 $54,403 $54,921 $56,621 $55,721 $57,075 $57,684 Lauderdale $991,038 $1,021,366 $1,070,163 $1,116,398 $1,158,469 $1,099,162 $1,084,119 $1,112,464 $1,144,308 $1,155,627 $1,170,840 Wilkinson $47,358 $46,643 $47,775 $50,975 $56,675 $61,115 $65,412 $65,149 $62,225 $53,981 $49,686 Lawrence $93,899 $102,415 $99,391 $96,708 $103,503 $101,522 $99,010 $97,652 $100,816 $103,070 $103,455 Winston $146,571 $156,119 $168,933 $174,161 $187,117 $127,764 $127,186 $138,396 $147,220 $149,953 $155,201 Leake $124,803 $131,147 $131,101 $133,686 $145,531 $148,030 $147,850 $140,541 $136,378 $137,707 $141,015 Yalobusha $82,531 $80,137 $81,541 $82,316 $86,117 $81,792 $89,934 $92,246 $93,498 $89,205 $94,007 Lee $1,577,556 $1,592,058 $1,612,497 $1,655,933 $1,681,015 $1,627,018 $1,664,631 $1,712,738 $1,788,459 $1,788,244 $1,807,160 Yazoo $167,109 $170,159 $172,441 $184,767 $190,940 $191,886 $201,879 $206,240 $211,169 $218,926 $229,081 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistices, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

78 Average Annual Pay County County Adams $24,790 $26,267 $28,431 $29,469 $30,493 $28,853 $29,470 $30,489 $31,944 $32,378 $33,043 Leflore $25,751 $26,629 $27,645 $28,417 $29,258 $29,516 $30,008 $31,257 $32,867 $32,050 $32,001 Alcorn $27,140 $27,471 $28,381 $29,338 $30,893 $31,489 $31,752 $31,941 $31,988 $31,920 $33,060 Lincoln $26,660 $27,456 $29,968 $29,450 $30,395 $30,661 $31,640 $32,079 $32,764 $33,043 $33,828 Amite $23,547 $24,481 $26,557 $27,704 $28,612 $26,483 $27,861 $27,791 $28,043 $30,038 $32,267 Lowndes $28,061 $29,136 $30,609 $33,057 $34,264 $34,840 $35,244 $36,550 $38,066 $39,227 $38,959 Attala $22,578 $23,281 $24,367 $25,744 $28,682 $28,949 $28,550 $28,613 $28,393 $29,618 $30,016 Madison $30,793 $31,843 $33,388 $34,608 $35,804 $36,081 $37,419 $38,373 $40,311 $41,593 $42,188 Benton $25,314 $26,421 $27,355 $28,117 $28,438 $28,860 $30,028 $28,880 $30,717 $29,629 $30,719 Marion $23,157 $24,710 $25,997 $27,127 $28,782 $29,449 $31,164 $31,368 $32,122 $33,043 $33,356 Bolivar $25,302 $25,974 $27,210 $31,514 $28,407 $29,125 $29,517 $30,788 $32,917 $32,473 $33,060 Marshall $24,980 $25,386 $26,698 $28,377 $30,751 $31,805 $31,006 $31,315 $31,758 $32,796 $33,365 Calhoun $22,413 $23,207 $23,959 $24,740 $24,895 $25,559 $25,766 $26,322 $27,599 $28,834 $29,206 Monroe $28,528 $29,153 $30,622 $31,209 $32,083 $31,671 $32,947 $33,404 $33,825 $35,077 $36,193 Carroll $21,516 $22,607 $24,009 $24,467 $25,891 $25,698 $27,329 $27,948 $28,385 $27,961 $28,380 Montgomery $20,248 $20,767 $22,122 $22,533 $23,712 $24,407 $25,365 $26,598 $27,188 $28,672 $28,840 Chickasaw $24,840 $25,218 $25,974 $26,033 $26,903 $27,920 $28,750 $28,839 $29,286 $29,490 $30,773 Neshoba $25,688 $26,687 $29,113 $29,299 $30,591 $30,647 $31,213 $30,752 $32,671 $33,506 $33,721 Choctaw $28,425 $29,655 $29,128 $29,868 $31,917 $32,433 $33,755 $34,007 $34,310 $37,128 $37,421 Newton $24,788 $24,926 $26,371 $26,775 $27,614 $27,396 $28,364 $28,788 $28,981 $29,417 $29,744 Claiborne $42,424 $44,153 $45,217 $46,656 $46,548 $45,932 $49,739 $50,083 $60,002 $49,454 $50,042 Noxubee $22,960 $24,039 $24,959 $25,888 $26,397 $25,941 $25,993 $26,362 $27,015 $27,653 $28,558 Clarke $22,635 $23,349 $25,082 $26,733 $27,098 $26,341 $27,950 $28,966 $31,948 $30,570 $31,436 Oktibbeha $27,193 $27,918 $28,646 $30,722 $31,644 $32,155 $33,562 $33,570 $33,517 $33,660 $34,073 Clay $27,408 $27,578 $29,739 $30,499 $30,723 $30,276 $29,587 $30,588 $31,447 $32,726 $32,956 Panola $25,197 $25,929 $27,072 $27,661 $29,257 $29,586 $30,341 $31,129 $32,413 $32,749 $33,239 Coahoma $26,145 $27,748 $27,904 $28,801 $28,899 $29,897 $30,499 $31,158 $31,755 $33,331 $33,076 Pearl River $23,329 $24,966 $26,921 $26,899 $28,467 $28,874 $29,870 $30,153 $30,724 $31,077 $31,574 Copiah $24,103 $24,795 $25,166 $25,894 $26,950 $27,100 $27,568 $30,225 $31,186 $31,715 $33,063 Perry $32,911 $32,533 $34,606 $35,142 $35,350 $35,774 $35,701 $37,103 $38,189 $38,909 $38,984 Covington $22,194 $23,779 $25,422 $26,317 $26,812 $27,745 $29,325 $29,324 $29,475 $29,717 $30,880 Pike $23,457 $24,494 $25,665 $26,425 $28,441 $27,371 $28,320 $29,006 $29,763 $30,377 $30,450 DeSoto $27,427 $28,412 $28,909 $29,601 $30,290 $30,667 $30,914 $31,461 $31,993 $32,335 $32,756 Pontotoc $26,821 $26,684 $27,403 $27,854 $27,637 $28,380 $28,673 $29,343 $29,504 $29,494 $30,497 Forrest $29,266 $30,054 $32,058 $33,349 $34,225 $34,710 $35,199 $35,776 $36,890 $37,090 $37,840 Prentiss $24,636 $25,608 $25,742 $27,152 $27,821 $27,304 $27,670 $28,089 $28,479 $28,818 $29,326 Franklin $25,875 $27,058 $28,259 $28,540 $29,588 $30,637 $31,286 $32,611 $32,755 $33,637 $34,155 Quitman $22,236 $22,966 $23,313 $24,164 $24,086 $25,026 $25,769 $26,276 $27,400 $27,527 $27,886 George $23,442 $25,541 $26,251 $27,643 $33,037 $33,323 $29,642 $29,936 $30,635 $31,260 $34,215 Rankin $30,222 $31,011 $32,393 $33,247 $34,320 $33,667 $34,310 $34,963 $35,753 $36,409 $37,105 Greene $23,076 $23,410 $24,634 $26,887 $27,594 $27,587 $27,545 $28,298 $27,502 $27,591 $28,658 Scott $23,643 $24,034 $25,156 $25,922 $26,331 $27,199 $27,108 $28,662 $29,269 $29,929 $30,688 Grenada $27,109 $27,295 $28,926 $28,474 $28,521 $29,090 $30,531 $30,372 $30,584 $30,888 $31,052 Sharkey $20,753 $21,733 $22,182 $22,877 $23,839 $24,958 $25,369 $26,520 $27,079 $27,022 $28,021 Hancock $35,347 $38,996 $43,627 $41,836 $42,761 $43,999 $44,892 $45,254 $45,984 $45,381 $46,576 Simpson $20,967 $21,125 $22,598 $24,004 $24,028 $24,567 $25,234 $25,847 $26,297 $26,907 $26,965 Harrison $28,026 $30,862 $33,749 $34,231 $34,921 $35,307 $34,978 $35,229 $35,441 $35,740 $36,411 Smith $27,592 $28,534 $29,036 $28,899 $29,639 $30,388 $30,987 $32,540 $33,001 $33,794 $35,875 Hinds $34,480 $35,583 $37,229 $38,567 $39,468 $40,307 $40,694 $41,310 $42,112 $42,925 $43,630 Stone $25,453 $26,072 $27,594 $28,386 $28,871 $29,612 $30,629 $30,011 $30,566 $30,702 $31,397 Holmes $23,734 $24,943 $25,111 $26,491 $27,095 $27,111 $27,413 $28,386 $28,173 $29,437 $28,740 Sunflower $22,435 $22,699 $23,210 $25,006 $26,169 $27,356 $27,885 $28,517 $29,301 $29,461 $29,520 Humphreys $19,484 $20,405 $21,186 $21,843 $23,102 $23,179 $23,307 $23,165 $24,554 $23,970 $26,209 Tallahatchie $21,411 $22,177 $22,887 $24,591 $25,132 $25,017 $25,501 $26,583 $27,597 $29,476 $29,939 Issaquena $20,652 $21,087 $20,240 $20,265 $21,099 $21,807 $22,498 $22,990 $24,219 $21,430 $22,146 Tate $24,502 $25,653 $26,668 $27,250 $27,820 $28,636 $29,205 $30,212 $30,786 $31,103 $30,814 Itawamba $25,041 $26,601 $27,331 $28,665 $29,616 $29,577 $29,987 $30,030 $30,437 $31,495 $32,294 Tippah $25,762 $26,532 $27,238 $28,293 $28,375 $28,214 $29,109 $30,071 $29,943 $30,260 $30,001 Jackson $33,095 $35,582 $37,194 $40,173 $43,644 $44,410 $44,329 $45,529 $45,982 $47,634 $48,017 Tishomingo $24,544 $25,018 $25,726 $26,698 $27,500 $27,315 $28,167 $28,521 $28,952 $29,645 $30,143 Jasper $25,417 $27,026 $28,400 $29,598 $31,866 $32,129 $34,058 $33,410 $34,649 $33,979 $35,569 Tunica $26,047 $26,482 $27,503 $27,939 $28,982 $27,923 $28,917 $28,870 $29,228 $28,940 $30,058 Jefferson $22,473 $23,193 $23,763 $25,291 $27,642 $27,531 $27,341 $27,778 $28,234 $28,512 $28,117 Union $25,498 $25,701 $25,988 $27,220 $28,666 $28,912 $29,692 $32,760 $34,270 $36,752 $38,013 Jefferson Davis $22,216 $23,375 $25,590 $27,196 $39,938 $34,861 $31,382 $31,650 $30,909 $29,605 $29,847 Walthall $21,264 $22,664 $24,576 $25,405 $26,132 $26,043 $26,341 $26,163 $26,904 $27,592 $29,059 Jones $27,595 $28,980 $29,988 $31,447 $33,097 $33,171 $34,584 $35,106 $36,124 $36,697 $38,156 Warren $31,113 $32,563 $34,054 $34,989 $37,462 $36,590 $37,368 $38,730 $39,010 $39,402 $40,165 Kemper $21,459 $22,395 $23,674 $25,248 $25,311 $25,500 $25,460 $30,053 $38,546 $48,131 $54,199 Washington $25,712 $26,861 $27,529 $28,478 $29,761 $29,915 $30,668 $31,013 $31,808 $32,181 $32,597 Lafayette $28,728 $30,064 $31,077 $32,387 $33,618 $34,345 $34,805 $34,950 $36,138 $36,640 $37,171 Wayne $24,318 $25,919 $27,578 $27,868 $28,515 $28,295 $29,567 $30,208 $31,251 $32,129 $33,415 Lamar $23,794 $24,166 $24,880 $24,798 $25,967 $26,882 $26,900 $27,714 $27,841 $28,150 $28,668 Webster $22,242 $23,764 $24,822 $24,480 $26,040 $26,221 $25,699 $26,977 $27,044 $28,264 $29,066 Lauderdale $28,063 $28,601 $29,572 $30,775 $32,087 $32,221 $32,344 $33,352 $34,348 $34,600 $35,115 Wilkinson $23,928 $24,354 $25,442 $26,620 $28,116 $27,982 $28,799 $29,554 $30,118 $29,271 $28,929 Lawrence $33,753 $38,525 $37,222 $35,327 $35,921 $36,956 $37,172 $39,191 $39,914 $40,939 $42,918 Winston $28,613 $29,413 $31,011 $31,208 $34,117 $27,647 $28,821 $30,402 $32,086 $32,603 $34,032 Leake $20,897 $22,604 $23,745 $24,406 $25,252 $25,339 $26,110 $26,918 $27,024 $27,087 $28,158 Yalobusha $27,971 $29,384 $28,956 $28,991 $29,435 $28,680 $29,566 $29,877 $28,803 $29,716 $31,507 Lee $31,634 $31,660 $31,978 $33,174 $33,467 $34,199 $34,414 $34,988 $35,440 $35,385 $35,962 Yazoo $28,106 $29,113 $29,292 $30,405 $31,942 $32,649 $33,174 $33,776 $34,707 $35,375 $36,093 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

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