Global Social Policy forum 4-5 November 2013 Helsinki, Finland. Directions of Social Policy in CIS+ Countries. Population Ageing. Alexandre Sidorenko

Transcription

1 Global Social Policy forum 4-5 November 2013 Helsinki, Finland Directions of Social Policy in CIS+ Countries. Population Ageing. Alexandre Sidorenko

2 Main Conclusion: The CIS+ countries have accumulated a unique experience of adjusting to the challenges and opportunities of individual and population ageing under the conditions of ongoing profound societal transformation. This experience awaits its research and analysis.

3 Public opinion in Russia still holds the image of state as a guarantor of social benefits and a care taker. Yet the today s Russian state offers to its citizens only an opportunity to participate in a competition for social goods. Prof. Irina Grigorieva, St. Petersburg State University

4 CONCLUSIONS 1. Demographic transition in the CIS+ countries has had the features of an accelerated ageing, caused by an increased mortality and outmigration among the younger cohorts of economically active population. 2. All CIS+ governments express concern about population ageing. Yet substantive national strategies on ageing are rare finds (Armenia, Moldova). 3. Population ageing is often considered an issue of national security rather than a priority in national development plans (e.g., National Programme of Demographic Security of the Republic of Belarus for ). 4. In several CIS+ countries the continuity of social policy process has been interrupted owing to an ongoing political transformation accompanied by frequent government reshuffling. 5. Evidence informed approach to social policies on ageing is difficult to detect. 6. The social policy process has often been substituted by spontaneous measures of individual adaptation to a rapidly transforming society.

5 Focusing the Presentation: Social Policies Population Policies Policies on Ageing

6 I. Major Demographic Concerns in CIS+ Countries 1.Depopulation. Under-population 2.(Out)Migration 3.High mortality 4.Age structure

7 1. Depopulation. Under-population.

8 Annual growth rate, % 4 Annual Population Growth Rate (percentage) Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russain Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan -4 Source: World Рopulation Policies, 2011 Alexandre Sidorenko, 2013

9 GOVERNMENT VIEWS AND POLICIES CONCERNING POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH (2011) TOO LOW Armenia (+0.2%): Raise Belarus (-0.5%): Raise Georgia (-0.6%): Raise Rep. Moldova (-1.1%): Raise Russian Fed. (-0.1%): Raise Ukraine (-0.6%): Raise SATISFACTORY Azerbaijan (+1.4%): Raise Kazakhstan (+1.1%): Raise Kyrgyzstan (+1.1%): Maintain Turkmenistan (+1.2%): Maintain Uzbekistan (+1.1%): Maintain TOO HIGH Tajikistan (+1.3%): Lower Source: World Рopulation Policies, 2011 Alexandre Sidorenko, 2013

10 2. (Out)Migration

11 Net Migration Rate (per 1000) in CIS countries, Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russain Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan -12 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Policies 2011.

12 INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Government Views and Policies on Emigration (2011) Too High* Armenia (-4.9): Lower Belarus ( -1): Lower Georgia (-6.8); Lower Rep. Moldova (-9.4): Lower Russian Fed. (+1.6): No Intervention Turkmenistan (-2.2): Lower Ukraine (-0.2) Lower Satisfactory* Azerbaijan (+1.2); Maintain Kazakhstan (+0.1): Maintain Kyrgyzstan (-5) Maintain Tajikistan (-8.9): Raise Uzbekistan (-3.9): Raise Too Low *In brackets Net Migration Rate Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Policies 2011.

13 3. High Mortality

14 Total Life Expectancy at Birth (years), EU 15 EU 12 CIS Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July

15 Total Life Expectancy, At Birth At 45 At Belarus Kazakhstan Russian Fed. Ukraine EU 15 Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July

16 Survival Rate (%) at Age 60, Total Female Male Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, Switzerland Source: World Population Ageing 2011, United Nations, New York, 2011

17 Disability-Adjusted Life Expectancy (years), Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July

18 GOVERNMENT VIEWS ON LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (2011) Acceptable Armenia (M/F: 70/77) Uzbekistan (M/F: 65/71) Unacceptable Azerbaijan (M/F: 68/72) Belarus (M/F: 63/75) Georgia (M/F: 68/75) Kazakhstan (M/F: 59/71) Kyrgyzstan (M/F: 64/72) Rep. Moldova (M/F: 65/72) Russian Fed. (M/F: 60/73) Tajikistan (M/F: 64/69) Turkmenistan (M/F: 61/69) Ukraine (M/F: 63/74) Source: World Рopulation Policies, 2011 Alexandre Sidorenko, 2013

19 4. Age Structure

20 Age structure of population in CIS+ and Western European Countries, % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % Note: W. (Western) Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Liechtenstein*, Luxemburg, Monaco*, Netherlands, Switzerland* (* - non-eu member) Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

21 Ranking CIS countries by median age of population Median age, years Japan Germany Italy Ukraine Estonia, Lithuania Belarus Russian Fed. Georgia Rep. Moldova Ireland Armenia Kazakhstan Azerbbaijan Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan 15 Niger Rank Source: World Population Ageing 2009, United Nations, New York, 2009

22 NORMAL POPULATION AGEING: LOW FERTILITY + LOW MORTALITY ACCELERATED POPULATION AGEING: LOW FERTILITY + HIGH MORTALITY OF WORKING AGE POPULATION + EMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE

23 Potential Support Ratio (14-64/65+), EU 15 EU 12 South-Eastern Europe CIS Tajikistan BiH Romania Ireland Italy 4 2 Slovenia 4 2 BiH 4 2 Ukraine World Population Ageing 2009.Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations, New York 2010

24 GOVERNMENT LEVEL OF CONCERN ABOUT AGEING OF THE POPULATION (2011) Major Concern Minor Concern No Concern / No View Armenia (14%) Azerbaijan (9%) Belarus (18%) Georgia (19%) Kazakhstan (10%) Kyrgyzstan (7%) Tajikistan (5%) Turkmenistan (6%) Uzbekistan (6%) Rep. Moldova (16%) Russian Fed. (18%) Ukraine (21%) In brackets proportion of 60+ in the population Source: World Рopulation Policies, 2011 Alexandre Sidorenko, 2013

25 GOVERNMENT LEVEL OF CONCERN ABOUT WORKING-AGE POPULATION AND MEASURES TO ADDRESS POPULATION AGEING (2011) Major Concern - Measures* Minor Concern - Measures* Armenia (6,3) - pension system reform in the last 5 years Belarus (5,3) - pension system reform in the last 5 years Georgia (4,8) - No (earlier pension reform) Kyrgyzstan (9,1) - pension system reform in the last 5 years Rep. Moldova (6,4) - change in statutory retirement age in the last 5 years Russian Fed. (5,6) - No Tajikistan (17,5) - change in statutory retirement age in the last 5 years Ukraine (4,6) - change in statutory retirement age in the last 5 years; pension system reform in the last 5 years Uzbekistan (15,5) - No Azerbaijan (11,3) - change in statutory retirement age in the last 5 years; pension system reform in the last 5 years Kazakhstan (10,2) - No (earlier pension reform) Turkmenistan (16,4) - pension system reform in the last 5 years No Concern/ No View* *В скобках Индекс потенциальной поддержки в 2011 г.

26 II. Policies on Ageing: Content

27 POLICY PRIORITIES ON AGEING IN CIS COUNTRIES, 2007, 2012 Priority Area Number of Countries Countries Number of Countries Countries Health and medical care 6 AM, BY, AZ, BY, MD, RU 5 AM, BY, MD, RU, UA Social protection/income security 5 AM, AZ, BY, MD RU, 6 AM, BY, MD, RU, TJ, UA Social services 4 AZ, BY, MD, RU 6 AM, BY, MD, RU, TJ, UA Integration and participation in 5 AM, AZ, BY, MD, 3 AM, BY, RU societal life RU Rights of older persons/anti-age 4 AZ, MD, RU, UZ 3 AM, MD, UA discrimination Social care, including long-term 2 AM, RU 4 AM, MD, TJ, UA care Labour market measures 3 MD; BY; RU 2 AM, BY, MD Intergenerational cohesion (solidarity) 2 MD, UZ 3 BY, MD, RU

28 Total health expenditure, purchasing power parity (US $) per capita, WHO estimates ЕU15 ЕU12 CIS+ Azerbaijan Armenia Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russian Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Ukraine Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July

29 Total health expenditure as % of gross domestic product (GDP), WHO estimates ЕU 15 ЕU 12 CIS Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russian Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July

30 Labour Force Participation at 65+ in CIS+, Europe, and Western Europe, %, Total Female Male 0 Source: World Population Ageing United Nations, New York, 2011

31 Labour Force Participation at 65+ in CIS+ and Western European Countries, %, Azerbaijan Source: World Population Ageing United Nations, New York, 2011 Armenia Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russain Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Ukraine Western Europe

32 Main Conclusion: The CIS+ countries have accumulated a unique experience of adjusting to the challenges and opportunities of individual and population ageing under the conditions of ongoing profound societal transformation. This experience awaits its research and analysis.