Public Finances Today: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead
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1 Public Finances Today: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead Seminari e convegni Workshops and Conferences Marzo 2015 number 19
2 Earlier versions of the papers in this volume were presented at the Banca d Italia workshop on Public Finances Today: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead held in Perugia, S.A.Di.Ba., on 3-5 April, We wish to thank the staff of S.A.Di.Ba. for their assistance in all aspects of the organization of the workshop. Previous Public Finance workshops have addressed the following topics: Indicators of Structural Budget Balances (1998) Fiscal Sustainability (2000) Fiscal Rules (2001) The Impact of Fiscal Policy (2002) Tax Policy (2003) Public Debt (2004) Public Expenditure (2005) Fiscal Indicators (2006) Fiscal Policy: Current Issues and Challenges (2007) Fiscal Sustainability: Analytical Developments and Emerging Policy Issues (2008) Pension Reform, Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance (2009) Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Crisis (2010) Rules and Institutions for Sound Fiscal Policy after the Crisis (2011) Fiscal Policy and Growth (2012) Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Imbalances (2013) The proceedings are available at the Banca d Italia website. A hard copy may be requested from: Banca d Italia Biblioteca Via Nazionale, Roma Italy The contents of this book do not commit Banca d Italia. Responsibility for the ideas and opinions expressed rests with the authors of the papers. Printed by the Printing Office of Banca d Italia, Rome, March Banca d Italia
3 CONTENTS Foreword Sandro Momigliano * ( * Banca d Italia)... p. 11 Session 1 TAX AND EXPEDITURE POLICIES 1 WORK-RELATED TAX EXPENDITURES IN THE EU: IMPLICATIONS FOR TAX REVENUE Salvador Barrios, * Serena Fatica, * Diego Martínez López ** and Gilles Mourre * ( * European Commission) ( ** Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla)... p. 15 Ferhan Salman (IMF)... p A FISCAL JOB? AN ANALYSIS OF FISCAL POLICY AND THE LABOR MARKET Elva Bova, Christina Kolerus and Jules S. Tapsoba (IMF)... p. 67 Gilles Mourre (European Commission)... p DISAPPOINTING PERFORMANCE OF PENSION PRIVATIZATION IN EASTERN EUROPE Nikola Altiparmakov (Fiscal Council, Republic of Serbia)... p. 93 Lukas Reiss (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)... p. 113
4 4 BETTER PENSIONS, BETTER JOBS: STATUS AND ALTERNATIVES TOWARD UNIVERSAL PENSION COVERAGE IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Mariano Bosch, * Angel Melguizo ** and Carmen Pages-Serra * ( * Inter-American Development Bank) ( ** OECD)... p. 119 Renee Philip (New Zealand Treasury)... p CHOOSING FISCAL CONSOLIDATION INSTRUMENTS COMPATIBLE WITH GROWTH AND EQUITY Boris Cournède, * Antoine Goujard * and Álvaro Pina ** ( * OECD) ( ** OECD, ISEG (Lisboa School of Economics and Management, Universidade de Lisboa) and UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics, Lisboa)... p. 139 Wolfgang Merz (Federal Ministry of Finance Berlin)... p. 187 Session 2 FISCAL MULTIPLIERS AND BUDGETARY ADJUSTMENT 6 HARD WORK, AND FOREIGN HELP HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY CONDUCT ADJUSTMENT WITH OFFICIAL ASSISTANCE Martin Larch, Kristin Magnusson Bernard and Balint Tatar (European Commission)... p. 191 Nicola Giammarioli (European Stability Mechanism)... p. 237
5 7 GOVERNMENTS PAYMENT DISCIPLINE: THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF PUBLIC PAYMENT DELAYS AND ARREARS Cristina Checherita-Westphal, * Alexander Klemm ** and Paul Viefers *** ( * ECB) ( ** IMF) ( *** Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Berlin)... p. 241 Pedro Hinojo (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Spain)... p SIGNALS FROM THE GOVERNMENT: POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND THE TRANSMISSION OF FISCAL SHOCKS Giovanni Ricco, * Giovanni Callegari ** and Jacopo Cimadomo ** ( * London Business School) ( ** ECB)... p. 279 Enrico D Elia and Filippo Pericoli (Ministry of Economy and Finance, Italy)... p PUBLIC DEBT DYNAMICS: THE EFFECTS OF AUSTERITY, INFLATION, AND GROWTH SHOCKS Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov (IMF)... p. 311 Ernesto Rezk (Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, National University of Córdoba, Argentina)... p CROSS-COUNTRY SPILLOVERS FROM FISCAL CONSOLIDATIONS Antoine Goujard (OECD)... p. 337 Diego Martínez López ( ** Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla)... p DOES FISCAL AUSTERITY AFFECT PUBLIC OPINION? Anna Kalbhenn and Livio Stracca (ECB)... p. 391 Luiz de Mello (OECD)... p. 419
6 12 WHEN DOES IT PAY TO TAX? EVIDENCE FROM STATE-DEPENDENT FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN THE EURO AREA George Hondroyiannis * and Dimitrios Papaoikonomou ** ( * Bank of Greece and Harokopio University, Athens) ( ** Bank of Greece)... p. 421 Jan Babecký (Czech National Bank)... p TOWARDS A (SEMI-)NARRATIVE ANALYSIS OF FISCAL POLICY IN EU MEMBER STATES Richard Morris, * Pietro Rizza, ** Vladimir Borgy, *** Kirstine Brandt, Manuel Coutinho Pereira, Anna Jablecka, Javier J. Pérez, Lukas Reiss, Morten Rasmussen, Karim Triki *** and Lara Wemens ( * ECB) ( ** Banca d Italia) ( *** Banque de France) ( Danmarks Nationalbank) ( Banco de Portugal) ( Narodowy Bank Polski) ( Banco de España) ( Oesterrichische Nationalbank)... p. 445 David Heald (University of Aberdeen)... p. 517 Session 3 NEW RULES FOR EMU 14 THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY: STRENGHTS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE NEW EUROPEAN FISCAL FRAMEWORK Ľudovít Ódor (Council for Budget Responsibility, Bratislava)... p. 523
7 15 THE RESPONSE OF POLICYMAKERS TO NATIONAL AND EUROPEAN FISCAL RULES THE CASE OF POLAND Tomasz Jędrzejowicz and Marcin Kitala (Narodowy Bank Polski)... p. 557 Balint Tatar (European Commission)... p STRENGTHENING POST-CRISIS FISCAL CREDIBILITY FISCAL COUNCILS ON THE RISE. A NEW DATASET Xavier Debrun and Tidiane Kinda (IMF)... p. 579 Geert Langenus (National Bank of Belgium)... p JUST ROUND THE CORNER? PROS, CONS, AND IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES OF A FISCAL UNION FOR THE EURO AREA Fabrizio Balassone, Sandro Momigliano, Marzia Romanelli and Pietro Tommasino (Banca d Italia)... p. 613 Teresa Ter-Minassian (Inter-American Development Bank)... p. 635 PANEL DISCUSSION Marco Buti (European Commission)... p. 639 Daniele Franco (Ragioneria Generale dello Stato, Italy)... p. 643 Karsten Wendorff (Deutsche Bundesbank)... p. 649
8 Contributors Nikola Altiparmakov (Fiscal Council Republic of Serbia) Jan Babecký (Czech National Bank) Fabrizio Balassone (Banca d Italia) Salvador Barrios (European Commission) Vladimir Borgy (Banque de France) Mariano Bosch (Inter-American Development Bank) Elva Bova (IMF) Kirstine Brandt (Danmarks Nationalbank) Marco Buti (European Commission) Giovanni Callegari (ECB) Cristina Checherita-Westphal (ECB) Reda Cherif (IMF) Jacopo Cimadomo (ECB) Boris Cournède (OECD) Manuel Coutinho Pereira (Banco de Portugal) Enrico D Elia (Ministry of Economy and Finance Italy) Luiz de Mello (OECD) Xavier Debrun (IMF) Serena Fatica (European Commission) Daniele Franco (Ragioneria Generale dello Stato Italy) Nicola Giammarioli (European Stability Mechanism) Antoine Goujard (OECD) Fuad Hasanov (IMF) David Heald (University of Aberdeen) Pedro Hinojo (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness Spain) George Hondroyiannis (Bank of Greece and Harokopio University, Athens) Anna Jablecka (Narodowy Bank Polski) Tomasz Jędrzejowicz (Narodowy Bank Polski) Anna Kalbhenn (ECB) Tidiane Kinda (IMF) Marcin Kitala (Narodowy Bank Polski) Alexander Klemm (IMF) Christina Kolerus (IMF)
9 Geert Langenus (National Bank of Belgium) Martin Larch (European Commission) Kristin Magnusson Bernard (European Commission) Diego Martínez López (Universidad Pablo de Olavide Sevilla) Angel Melguizo (OECD) Wolfgang Merz (Federal Ministry of Finance Berlin) Sandro Momigliano (Banca d Italia) Richard Morris (ECB) Gilles Mourre (European Commission) Ľudovít Ódor (Council for Budget Responsibility Bratislava) Carmen Pages-Serra (Inter-American Development Bank) Dimitrios Papaoikonomou (Bank of Greece) Javier J. Pérez (Banco de España) Filippo Pericoli (Ministry of Economy and Finance Italy) Renee Philip (New Zealand Treasury) Álvaro Pina (OECD Economics Department, ISEG (Lisboa School of Economics and Management Universidade de Lisboa) and UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics Lisboa) Morten Rasmussen (Danmarks Nationalbank) Lukas Reiss (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) Ernesto Rezk (Instituto de Economía y Finanzas National University of Córdoba Argentina) Giovanni Ricco (London Business School) Pietro Rizza (Banca d Italia) Marzia Romanelli (Banca d Italia) Ferhan Salman (IMF) Livio Stracca (ECB) Jules S. Tapsoba (IMF) Balint Tatar (European Commission) Teresa Ter-Minassian (Inter-American Development Bank) Pietro Tommasino (Banca d Italia) Karim Triki (Banque de France) Paul Viefers (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Berlin) Lara Wemens (Banco de Portugal) Karsten Wendorff (Deutsche Bundesbank)
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