Deciphering the Region

Transcription

1 Deciphering the Region INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Office of Outreach and Partnerships FORUM LATIN AMERICA Vienna, 15 May

2 Growth (%) Global growth is on the rise Source: IMF (WEO) World USA China Euro but there are several risks to these projections

3 Growth (%) And positive growth expectations for LAC Simple Average 75th Percentile Weighted Average 25th Percentile Source: IMF (WEO)

4 LAC is the 4 th largest economy and trading partner Share of world GDP Share of world trade 2015 China 15% LAC 7% Japan 6% ROW 26% LAC 6% Japan 4% US 11% ROW 36% EU 22% US 24% EU 31% China 12%

5 LAC needs a new path towards integration that will bring significant gains Fall in LAC exports under global trade frictions (%) Latin America MERCOSUR With LAC integration -7-3 Chile Without LAC integration Andean Community C. America & DR Mexico

6 Summing up Growing global demand but with considerable uncertainty The region has been adjusting Inflation is under control Strong fiscal programs, but additional efforts are required Significant external adjustment has occurred Over 80% of intra-regional trade covered by 33 PTA s, but the region is not reaping the full benefits, a new approach is needed. A fully-integrated US$ 5 trillion market would yield significant gains and help the region navigate potential global trade frictions

7 Disclosing the gaps By 2030, our cities will have 133 million people more than in 2010

8 AN URBANIZING REGION SOURCE: UN Population Division

9 80 MILLION PEOPLE IN LAC STILL NEED ACCESS TO WATER & SANITATION TO ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL ACCESS LAC NEEDS 20 US$ BILLION IN INVESTMENT

10 MOBILITY 28.1 million people Travel 90+ minutes a day Equivalent to 10 a year per person working weeks SOURCE: Serebrisky (2014)

11 BY 2040 LAC S ELECTRICITY SUPPLY WILL HAVE TO GROW THE EQUIVALENT OF 18 TIMES ITAIPU S GENERATING CAPACITY SOURCE: Lights on? IDB (2016)

12 LACK OF ELECTRICITY IN LAC People without electricity (m) SOURCE: Lights on? IDB (2016)

13 ACCESS AND LOSSES: ELECTRICITY AND POWER SYSTEMS Each year, 17% of the electricity generated in LAC is 3x the losses levels of OECD countries More than the demand of the 30 million people with no access Electricidad perdida: Dimensionando las pérdidas de electricidad en los sistemas de transmisión y distribución en América Latina y el Caribe, BID División de Energía (2014)

14 PRODUCTIVITY GAP IN LAC NOTE: Total Factor Productivity

15 INFRASTRUCTURE: LAC CURRENTLY INVESTS LESS THAN IN THE 80S SOURCE: Calderón e Servén (2010); CAF (2011)

16 LOW INVESTMENT CONSEQUENCES: LOW QUALITY SOURCE: WEF database (2015)

17 LOW INVESTMENT CONSEQUENCES: LOW QUALITY SOURCE: Calderón & Servén (2010); CAF (2011)

18 LOW INVESTMENT CONSEQUENCES: POOR LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE SOURCE: WEF database (2015)

19 THE INFRASTRUCTURE GAP IN LAC 5% Who s paying? SOURCE: Calderón & Servén (2010); CAF (2011)

20 GAPS = OPPORTUNITIES

21 OUR WORK

22 IDB Group

23 OBJECTIVE Contribute to the acceleration of economic and social development of the regional developing member countries, individually and collectively. VISION Increase productivity and reduce inequality in a sustainable way to transform LAC into a more inclusive and prosperous society. 23

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25 Gender Equality & Diversity Climate Change & Environmental Sustainability Institutional Capacity & the Rule of Law Social Exclusion & Inequality Low Productivity & Innovation Limited Economic Integration

26 IDB-9:ALIGNING TO THE SDGS SECTORS 26

27 APPROVALS AND DISBURSEMENTS, (In millions of U.S. dollars) 27

28 2016 APPROVALS BY SECTOR GROUP (In millions of U.S. dollars) 28

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33 CONÉCTATE CONNECT APRENDE LEARN FINÁNCIATE FINANCE

34 Learn more at: 34

35 Thank you! Fazia Pusterla IDB Office in Europe Office of Outreach and Partnerships Tel. +34 (91) The Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Papers and Presentations are documents prepared by both Bank and non-bank personnel as supporting materials for events and are often produced on an expedited publication schedule without formal editing or review. The information and opinions presented in these publications are entirely those of the author(s), and no endorsement by the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the countries they represent is expressed or implied. This presentation may be reproduced with prior written consent of the author. 35