Voyage to Indonesia. Outreach Event for IMF/WB 2018 Annual Meeting in Bali

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1 Voyage to Indonesia Outreach Event for IMF/WB 2018 Annual Meeting in Bali John G. Nelmes Senior Resident Representative IMF Indonesia Office January 2017

2 Overview of the IMF Indonesia and the IMF IMF/WB 2018 Annual Meeting in Bali Economic Outlook Resources and Careers at the IMF

3

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5 189 countries represented Non-members include: Cuba, North Korea, Andorra, Monaco, Liechtenstein

6 Around 2,700 Staff From 148 countries

7 Board of Governors IMFC Executive Board Management Staff

8 6% Shift of voting shares to emerging market and developing countries BRICS now in top 10 shareholders

9

10 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Quotas VOTING SHARE Emerging & Developing 39,6% 60,4% Advanced Borrowing Other 51.87% 16.5% United States Germany 5.3% 6.13% 6.07% 8.06% Japan China 6.79% Other BRICS Middle East

11 Our key mandate is to promote global economic and financial stability. - Christine Lagarde

12 1. Surveillance Bilateral, Regional, Global Evenhanded approach Spillover and cross-country analysis

13 2. Lending Concessional Non-Concessional Conditionality Zero percent interest rate, for developing countries Crisis management & prevention Flexible, focused, social, macro-critical

14 3. Capacity Building Regional technical assistance centers: Fiji Lebanon Tanzania Mauritius Gabon Ghana Mali Barbados Guatemala Thailand India Regional training centers: Africa Training Institute (ATI) IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) Joint Vienna Institute (JVI) IMF-Middle East Center for Economics and Finance (CEF) The Joint Regional Training Center for Latin America

15 Role of the IMF: Traditional Areas of Work Monetary policy Fiscal policy Financial Stability New Areas of Work Inequality, jobs and inclusive growth Climate change and energy pricing Female labor force participation

16 Whom do we engage with? Parliamentarians Civil Society Organizations National and International Trade Unions Think Tanks/Academics Youth Why? Information exchange Finger on the pulse of country Policy dialogue Effectiveness of policy advice

17 Governance and Operation reforms Program reforms

18 Indonesia and the IMF

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20 IMF: Voting Power Share United States (17%) Others (39%) Japan (6%) China (6%) Other European (5%) Germany (5%) UK (4%) France (4%) Southern European (4%) LAC (5%) SEA (4%) Note: LAC = Latin American Countries; SEA = Southeast Asian countries. Source:

21 Indonesia: IMF Technical Cooperation and Training Technical Cooperation Training (RHS) Note: TC is in person years of field delivery; while training is in participant weeks. 0 Source: IMF Capacity Development in Numbers

22 100% Indonesia: Type of Technical Cooperation (in percent) 100% Indonesia: Type of Training (in percent) 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% Fiscal Monetary Statistic Legal Other Source: IMF Capacity Development in Numbers 0% Finance Legal Macroeconomic Statistic Fiscal Other Source: IMF Capacity Development in Numbers

23 country/idn/

24 country/idn/

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26 Prague (2000) Istanbul (2009) Dubai (2003) Tokyo (2012) Hong Kong (1997) Singapore (2006) Lima (2015) Bali (2018)

27 IMF Governors International Monetary and Finance Committee (IMFC) Plenary

28 Development Committee Meeting

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30

31

32 Economic Outlook

33 World Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Asia U.S. Euro Area China Japan Change Change Change Note: Change is relative to the World Economic Outlook October Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook January 2017 Update; and IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2016.

34 Growth has held up well relative to other EMs.. Emerging Market Countries' Growth in 2016 (Percentage) Emerging Market Countries' Growth in 2017 (Percentage) 8 6 EMs 8 7 EMs Source: IMF Jan 2017 WEO Update Database Source: IMF Jan 2017 WEO Update Database

35 Outlook Risks GDP Growth (%) Inflation (%) Current Account (% of GDP) Upside Stronger global growth Higher commodity prices Downside Uncertainties around the policies of the incoming U.S. administration Protectionist policies Source: IMF, 2016 Article IV Consultation More volatile global financial conditions and higher interest rates Spillovers from a significant China slowdown Tax revenue shortfalls

36 Well-placed focus on higher revenues and spending on priority areas infrastructure, health, education with continued deficit control Fiscal Monetary Current stance appropriate, maintain flexibility Policy Advice Sound, continue close monitoring Financial Structural Reform Continue making good progress on business environment, labor skills

37 Resources and Careers at the IMF

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39 school/imfx

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42 Mauliate -Terima kasih

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