Core Deposit Analytics Session 2: Beyond Basics - Applying Results

Transcription

1 Core Deposit Analytics Session 2: Beyond Basics - Applying Results David Koch President/CEO dkoch@farin.com ext

2 Impact of Right Assumptions on ALCO Decision Making CORE DEPOSIT ASSUMPTIONS 2

3 FDIC NMD Assumptions What market rate we should be watching? Why would they differ? Is that a management action?

4 FDIC NMD Assumptions

5 2 Most Common Core Study Outputs Pricing Betas the extent to which a change in market rates is passed along to deposit customers Income at risk analysis EVE analysis Decay rates The speed at which non-maturity deposits decay off books over time EVE analysis Liquidity analysis What s about missing component? SURGE BALANCES 5

6 US Commercial Bank Data 6

7 US Commercial Bank Data MMDA = 21% in 2006 MMDA = 31.2% in 2012 Total NMD funding up from 35.96% in 06 to 55.4% in 13 7

8 Look at the Regulators View What is the trouble with how this graph is presented? Why are we looking at % of Earning Assets?

9 Where s the surge?

10 Where s the surge? So, total deposits have not moved much, but deposits/asset have increased!

11 Where s the Surge Which group of banks has used brokered CDs more in the past?

12 Check This Math Deposits/Assets Up by 2-4% since 2009 Brokered CDs (classified as a deposit) down 2-3% Total Deposits In banks < $500mm have remained flat or shrunk How does the deposit/asset ratio rise if deposits have held flat or shrunk? What does this say about newer accounts vs. older accounts? Are they the same depositor? How do you treat deposits in your modeling? 12

13 Key Question Impacting Risk Interest Rate Risk & Liquidity Risk Both Impacted by this question. 13

14 4 Common Methods for Calculating Decay Rates Method 1: Change in Account Method Calculate the changes in # of Accounts between beginning and ending periods Strengths Based on account level data Fast analytics can be performed Weaknesses Assumes balance trends move in relation to number of accounts Not recognized as industry standard Fails to identify surge balances as no study of balance trends What happens when total balances increase but number of accounts decline?

15 From the Careful what you wish for File True story: a client was unhappy with study results - surge balances had negative impact on EVE levels Had a second study done Study used Account # method to calculate decay rates. Compare # of accounts at beginning and end of month Calculate the change in accounts Repeat next month Computes change in # of accounts and converts to change in balance levels Single Monthly Mortality (SMM) approach Average Life calculated on average decline in accounts Major Assumption Balance trends will follow account closure rate 15

16 From the Careful what you wish for File Account Number Listing by Month January February March April EXAMPLE January February March April Closed Accounts Starting # of Accts Closed/Starting 10.0% 9.1% 16.7% Avg Avg Term (mos) Avg Life (mos) Simplifies the analysis process Uses Account Level details But what does account maintenance do to the decay rates? How do we ID Surge? Result: EVE improved from -35% in +3% shock to -3%. Question: How can there be so much variance? 16

17 Calculating Decay Rates Method 2: Change in Balance Method Calculate the changes in account balances on accounts in place at beginning of the period Old OTS Call Report Method DECAY RATE ANALYSIS MMDA Quarter and Year 01/07 02/07 03/07 04/07 1/08 02/08 03/08 04/08 01/09 1. MMDA BOQ (Mill$'s) MMDA EOQ (Mill $'s) EOQ Bal New MMDA EOQ Bal Old MMDA(2 3) Chg in Old MMDA Ball (1 4) Qtrly Decay Old MMDA (5/1) 1.74% 5.64% 0.64% 1.63% 1.20% 6.18% 2.25% 3.10% 0.87% 7. Annual Decay Old MMDA (6*4) 6.98% 22.56% 2.57% 6.50% 4.81% 24.73% 9.02% 12.41% 3.47% 8. MMDA/Tot Dep BOQ 2.17% 2.11% 2.01% 2.03% 1.97% 1.87% 1.81% 1.84% 1.79% 9. MMDA/Tot Dep EOQ 2.11% 2.01% 2.03% 1.97% 1.87% 1.81% 1.84% 1.79% 1.78% 10. Change MMDA/Dep (8 9) 0.06% 0.11% 0.03% 0.06% 0.10% 0.06% 0.03% 0.05% 0.02% 11. % Change MMDA PB/Dep (10/8) 2.58% 5.11% 1.45% 3.05% 5.17% 3.05% 1.49% 2.61% 0.95% 12. Ann % Change MMDA/Dep (11*4) 10.33% 20.44% 5.79% 12.19% 20.69% 12.19% 5.96% 10.43% 3.79% 13. Decay NRS MMDA (7 12) 3.35% 2.11% 8.36% 5.69% 15.88% 12.53% 14.97% 1.98% 0.32%

18 Change in Balance Method Track beginning and ending balances Requirements Ability to ID ending period balance levels on accounts opened during the period Strengths Account numbers not needed Over long horizons sample moves with changes in customer characteristics. Weaknesses Not recognized as industry standard No correlation between # of accounts and balances In periods where accounts are adding balances, decay rates go negative. 18

19 Calculating Decay Rates Method 3: Single Pool Account Study Track changes in initial study group accounts over time. Calculate the changes in account balances and # of account on accounts Strengths Able to correlate changes in actual accounts and balances Recognized as industry standard Weaknesses Data required from pre-crisis starting point (2007 or earlier) for most relevant analysis Ignores all new accounts. Applies old account behaviors to all newly opened accounts

20 Calculating Decay Rates 4 Common Calculation Methods Method 4: Multi Pool (Vintage) Study Track initial study group (single pool method) and subsequent pools of new accounts over time Track behaviors of newer accounts vs. older more seasoned accounts Strengths Doesn t ignore accounts representing > 50% of total deposit balances in a sector Develops better metrics on new account behaviors Helps to estimate surge deposits vs. core Weaknesses More data and analysis required Many ALM models unable to process outputs properly

21 Strengthening the core VINTAGE DECAY

22 Problems with Traditional Core How old were the initial 12,959 accounts in this consumer savings study? Number of Accounts Sep-2007 Consumer Savings 12,959 < 1 Year % 1-2 Years % 2-3 Years % 3-4 Years % 4-5 Years % > 5 Years 10, % Undetermined 0 0.0% Acct Weighted Average Age % of account open 5 Yr or More How old are they now? 22

23 Problems with Traditional Core So, the accounts are Old but what about the balances? Balances in Thousands Sep-2007 Consumer Savings 21,998 < 1 Year % 1-2 Years % 2-3 Years % 3-4 Years % 4-5 Years % > 5 Years 19, % Undetermined 0 0.0% Balance Weighted Average Age % of the initial $ million in balances were > 5 Yrs. old 23

24 Problems with Traditional Core Examining the 12,000+ accounts ½ had balances >= $500 Rate of decay on gross accounts much faster than on net accounts 12,000+ down to 6,000 6,000 down to 4,000 Which line represents funding risks to you? Let s look at balances How would the account # decay look in comparison? 24

25 Problems with Traditional Core Despite the large decline in account #s balances have remained steady Actually seen growth from 2010 to 2013 Does the decline in # of accounts correlate to the level of funding risk? How can account balances grow in this vintage when account # s are declining? 25

26 MMDA Example Acct # Change MMDA Accounts have very low levels of dormant or low balance accounts Roughly100 of 600 as of 12/

27 MMDA Example Balance Change Avg Balance net of low balance accounts rises sharply from vs. true average How does average balance increase? 27

28 MMDA Example Change in Balances 2007 Account Age Total Balance % of Ttl. Balance # of Accounts % of Accounts Total 45,137 1,164 < 1 Year 16, % % 1 2 Years 6, % % 2 3 Years 2, % % 3 4 Years 2, % % 4 5 Years 4, % % > 5 Years 12, % % Undetermined 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Weighted Age (Yrs.) December 2013 Account Age Total Balance % of Ttl. Balance # of Accounts % of Accounts Total 214,239 3,140 < 1 Year 17, % % 1 2 Years 21, % % 2 3 Years 33, % % 3 4 Years 41, % % 4 5 Years 25, % % > 5 Years 74, % 1, % Undetermined 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Weighted Age (Yrs.) How does the change in the total balance and # of accounts from 2007 to 2013 impact your thoughts on single vintage? 1,164 accounts in 2007 to 3,140 accounts in 2013 $45,137 in balances to $214,239 (000 s) 28

29 MMDA Example What was happening at the institution during this time? 29

30 MMDA Example What was happening at the institution during this time? 30

31 MMDA Example Avg Balance by Vintage Note how gross average balance for each subsequent year is higher than the initial vintage 31

32 MMDA Remaining Accts

33 MMDA Remaining Balance

34 MMDA Net Avg Balance

35 Does Pricing Effect Demand? Linking Beta & Decay Note Ave Bal Increase as Offer Rate is well above market 35

36 Decay Rates By Vintage Note higher volatility of newly originated accounts during crisis but acting more stable now. Big question is for how long? 36

37 Non-Maturity Accounts & Surge Surge Balances: Balances within a NMD not anticipated to remain in that line or projected cost Sources of Surge Market Inflows Stock market Other FI Deposits Internal Account Movement CDs to MMDA? Most ALM Models are applying long-term treatment to surge balances Wrong Interest Expense Calculation What happens to Surges in recovering economy? Longer Duration than reality 37

38 Summary Findings Current Balances as of Dec-2013 Age Balance Vintage Surge% Surge Core Base Decay < 1 Year 17, % 7,844 9, % 1-2 Years 21, % 13,315 8, % 2-3 Years 33, % 23,279 9, % 3-4 Years 41, % 22,026 19, % 4-5 Years 25, % 17,800 7, % 5-6 Years 27, % 14,243 13, % original 47, % 18,903 28, % Total 214, % 117,410 96, % Original Study: Surge: 42.0% Base Decay: 8.68% New Study: Surge: 54.8% Base Decay: 12.07% Net Result: Shorter duration, more volatile funding than single vintage study results. Captures essence of new accounts vs. seasoned. LIMITED SAMPLE NOT FOR USE IN MODELING

39 Decay Rate Comparison Farin Studies vs. OTS Last published OTS data indicates much FASTER decay rates than Mean of actual study data Note that OTS data made minor adjustments in decay rates for surge balances as rates change. LIMITED SAMPLE NOT FOR USE IN MODELING 39

40 Decay Rates by Sector These results show base decay on non-surge balances by sector type for sample of FARIN Core Analytic clients Note that these balances are subjected to truncation assumptions Banks: 15 Yrs. CU s: 10 Yrs. LIMITED SAMPLE NOT FOR USE IN MODELING 40

41 Non-Maturity Accounts & Surge Studies show following estimates and standard deviations on surge amounts by deposit type from SINGLE POOL studies. Multi Pool Studies Likely Higher LIMITED SAMPLE NOT FOR USE IN MODELING 41

42 Decay Rates Surge Balance Burnout Truncation Assumption: 20% of balances are surge balances LIMITED SAMPLE NOT FOR USE IN MODELING 42

43 Impact One Customer Significantly Longer WAL Account Flat Rate WAL b4 Study Flat Rate WAL After Study Statement Savings 4.26 Yrs Yrs. NOW 5.62 Yrs Yrs. MM 2.40 Yrs Yrs. 43

44 Impact One Customer Higher Portfolio Equity Ratios under all rate environments AND increased asset sensitivity due to: Increased duration of NMDs (lower decay rates) Higher spreads to benchmarks (higher average benchmark cost Question Can we develop pricing strategies that reduce pricing betas and slow decay rates? 44

45 Impact One Customer Minimal Impact on Net Interest Margin over 12 months: Use caution here there are several modeling traps. 1. How are you handling the repricing of surge balances in income simulation? 2. If your lags are longer, the full impact of rates not seen in a 1 year time frame 45

46 Sensitivity Testing Key Assumptions TESTING KEY ASSUMPTIONS

47 Business Planning Scenarios Rates Funding sources & costs Credit Quality Projected Growth 47

48 Key Core Deposit Assumptions In Managing IRR, 3 Critical Assumptions Impact Overall Risk Exposures Beta What is the impact on earnings and capital if Beta is Higher or Lower than expected Surge Balances What is the impact on earnings and capital if more or less money in a sector is going to move to higher beta account? How much NMD funding is really available for long-term asset hedging? Decay Rate/Duration of Core How long will core funding levels remain on deposit Do we need to hedge risks or do we have opportunities to take longer assets to increase earnings?

49 Client Study Core Sensitivities Initial Core Study results created increase value in EVE analysis and higher net interest margin Regulators concerned over reasonableness of these assumptions Ran Multiple Scenarios Base Findings vs. Increase in beta Surge Change: Assumed additional $20 and $50 MM in Surge balances Ran Beta at current and increased levels against both surge balance adjustments Question: What was impact on earnings and capital and how will institution manage/control?

50 Client Example Net Interest Inc. Compare base assumptions (line) to faster beta (bar) results Results show beta increase causes 10-30% reduction in 2 year NIM LIMITED SAMPLE NOT FOR USE IN MODELING 50

51 Client Example Net Interest Inc. Compare base assumptions (line) to more funds ($50mm) in surge (green bar) to more surge & faster beta (orange bar) Relative result show beta increase causes greater decline in margin than the outflow and replacement of more surge balances LIMITED SAMPLE NOT FOR USE IN MODELING 51

52 Client Example EVE Measure impact on long-term EVE using increased surge assumptions of $20 & $50 mm in conjunction with higher beta.

53 Client Example EVE Again, most dramatic change comes with beta adjustment vs. surge. LIMITED SAMPLE NOT FOR USE IN MODELING

54 Changes in Beta (green bar) has the most impact on EVE ratios and volatility Highlights Importance of a plan for managing overall funding costs and wholesale/hedging BEFORE needed. Client Example EVE LIMITED SAMPLE NOT FOR USE IN MODELING

55 Relative Importance of Core Study For interest rate risk: understanding repricing beta assumptions has biggest impact on results Net Interest Income EVE Be careful how you are applying the beta to your balances If all balances are in one account and low beta is being applied, results will understate interest rate risk Most important goal for ALCO in rising rates Develop Your Written Funding Plan! 55

56 PUTTING CORE TO WORK 56

57 Determining Your Long Term Funding Need Budget for long-term asset allocation is a function of long-term funding sources Long-term, fixed rate investments Munis, MBS, CMOs, Callable agency bonds Long-term fixed rate loans Commercial RE 1-4 Family Ag What are your sources of stable funding? New liquidity rules are placing premium on stable core funding relationships See recent articles on big bank focus on stable funding 57

58 Determining Your Long Term Funding Need Setting your fixed rate asset concentration limit Core deposit base: % of total deposits as measured by vintage core study with sensitivity tests PLUS: long-term certificate balances with adequate early withdrawal penalties PLUS: long-term FHLB advances PLUS: long-term brokered certificates PLUS: off-balance sheet hedges willing to use The less certain you are on core funding the more expensive and reliant you are on wholesale options or, the less loan business you are getting from market 58

59 Blended Funding Using FHLB Advances Concept Use FHLB Advances to provide structural support under fixed-rate loans Partially match the cash flows with totally predictable funding behavior Potentially pay a bit more for prepayment protection Tradeoffs Higher cost You may not need the funding But what are you earning on your investment portfolio now? Supplement FHLB Advances with non-maturity deposits to plug funding gap taking advantage of: Low cost of NMDs Lower pricing betas through segmentation Decay rates Inherent extension risk hedge Results in: A close to fully hedged position Less reliance on the accuracy of the core study 59

60 FHLB Blended Funding 40/60 FHLB Advance with known cash flows Low Beta core NMDs Yield 5.5% - Blend Cost 1.9% = Spread 3.6% Core Study Reliance = 60% 60

61 FHLB Blended Funding 70/30 Yield 5.5% - Blend Cost 2.8% = Spread 2.7% FHLB Advance with known cash flows Low Beta core NMDs Core Study Reliance = 30% Cost of additional locked hedge = 1% 61

62 What Should Institutions Do? 1. Get a handle on how deposits actually behave (core funding study) Betas CDs and NMDs Decay Rates NMDs 2. Develop core funding strategy for rising rates Product introductions Pricing strategies 3. Model business plan interest rate risk given Behaviors from study Core funding strategy for rising rates 4. Evaluate interest rate risk based on modeling performed in previous step. If you find: Significant asset sensitivity extend assets and shorten term funding Neutral to moderate you are set tune a bit if you like Significant liability sensitivity lengthen liabilities and shorten assets 5. Run sensitivity tests using Standard Deviation from Internal Decay & Beta Studies to assess risk to earnings and capital 62

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