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1 1/18 TOP INCOMES IN GERMANY, Charlotte Bartels (DIW/SOEP) First WID.World conference December 14th, 2017
2 2/18 Estimation of income concentration International effort among inequality researchers to produce comparable estimates of income concentration collected in World Wealth and Income Database (WID) initiated by A. Atkinson, T. Piketty and E. Saez The share of income accruing to the top x% is computed using personal income tax (PIT) statistics and external population and income aggregates Income concept: taxable income Problem: tax reforms often change the definition of taxable income Challenge: make series comparable over time and across countries
3 3/18 Datasource: Personal income tax statistics Source: Statistik des Deutschen Reichs, Einkommen- und Körperschaftsteuerveranlagung 1925
4 4/18 Top 1% in international comparison 25 Income share (%) United States United Kingdom France Sweden Norway Source: WID
5 4/18 Top 1% in international comparison 25 Income share (%) United States United Kingdom France Sweden Norway Source: WID
6 German territory covered by new series Bremen Hamburg Hesse Baden Wurttemberg Saxony Bavaria Prussia /18
7 6/18 German states, Top 1% 40 Income share in % Saxony Baden Hessen Prussia Württemberg Bremen Bavaria Hamburg Source: Own calculations, PIT statistics
8 7/18 Germany, Top decile 50 Income share in % Incl. capital gains Excl. capital gains Source: Own calculations, PIT microdata and statistics
9 8/18 Germany, Top decile disjoint 25 Income share in % P90-95 P95-99 Top 1% Source: Own calculations, PIT microdata and statistics
10 9/18 Germany, Top 0.01% 5 Income share in % Incl. capital gains Excl. capital gains Source: Own calculations, PIT microdata and statistics
11 Germany, Bottom 50%, middle 40% and top 10% 50 Share of total income (%) Top 10% Middle 40% Bottom 50% Source: Own calculations, PIT microdata and statistics 10/18
12 11/18 Germany in international comparison - top 1% 25 Income share (%) United States United Kingdom Germany France Sweden Norway Source: WID and own calculations, PIT microdata and statistics
13 12/18 Composition of top incomes Share of total income (%) Share of total income (%) P90-95 P95-99 P P P Top 0.01% P90-95 P95-99 P P P Top 0.01% Share of total income (%) Business Wages 1977 Self-employment Dividends, interest and rents Share of total income (%) Business Wages 2007 Self-employment Dividends, interest and rents 0 P90-95 P95-99 P P P Top 0.01% 0 <P90 P90-95 P95-99 P P P Top 0.01 Business Wages Self-employment Dividends, interest and rents Business Wages Self-employment Dividends, interest and rents
14 Composition of top incomes - Top 0.1% Income composition of Top 0.1% (in %) Business Dividends, interest and rents Self-employment Wages 13/18
15 14/18 What drives top income shares? Importance of capital income as income source Globalization/Trade Technological change Institutions of the modern welfare state i.e. progressive income taxation, top marginal tax rates Bargaining power of trade unions See, e.g., Atkinson et al., JEL, 2011; Roine et al., JPubE, 2009; Foerster/Toth, 2015
16 15/18 Correlation matrix, All Top 1% Cap.share ATR Trade Union Patents Top 1% 1 Cap.share ATR Trade Unions Patents
17 16/18 Correlation matrix by period Top 1% Cap.share ATR Trade Unions Patents
18 17/18 Conclusion Prussian pre-wwi series overestimates income concentration at the very top compared to entire Germany. Top 10% share today is as high as in pre-wwi-germany. Top 1% share today is at post-wwii high, but still lower than in pre-wwi-germany. Growth in income concentration at the top in Germany seems to be related to increasing profits from unincorporated firms an increasing capital share. decreasing average tax rates for the top 1% decreasing union density pro-rich international trade
19 18/18 Thank you for your attention!
20 19/18 Method: Pareto interpolation 1. Pareto interpolation to assess Pareto parameter a and income threshold of top x% from PIT statistics 2. Total tax units and total income from external data sources total tax units: married couples + singles aged 20+ Source: Statistical Yearbook Details total income: 90% of total household income Source: National Accounts 3. Income share of top x%= Details a x% of total tax units income threshold of top x% (a 1) total income
21 20/18 Shares compared to Dell (2007) Income share in % Income share in % Top 10% Top 5% Income share in % Top 1% Top.01% Income share in % This paper Dell (2007)
22 21/18 Retained earnings in corporate sector? Net lending/net borrowing (bn Euro) Income share (%) Sectoral account position of corporations and partnerships Top 1% Source: Statistical Office, national accounts
23 22/18 50% rule for dividends Back
24 Tabulated data Germany , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,3 Gesamtbetrag der Einkünfte Gesamtbetrag 9,4 43 der , Festgesetzte 986 8,4Einkommensteuer ,2 20 von 000 bis unter ,4 Einkünfte , , , Stpfl % 9, % 6,1 2 Stpfl % 11, % 3, ,9 Verlustfälle (Gesamtbetrag 9,6 der Einkünfte 919 < 014,6 ) , , , , ,4 < , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,3 zusammen , , , , ,1 Gewinnfälle (Gesamtbetrag 2,1 der Einkünfte ,2 ) , ,0 3, ,5 0, , ,9 0, ,0 2, ,7 0, ,0 0, ,3 0, oder - mehr ,0 2, ,6 0, ,0 0, ,8 0, zusammen , , , , , , , ,1 insgesamt , , , , , , , ,2 Source: Annual PIT Statistics (jährliche Einkommensteuerstatistik), Destatis , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,4 23/18 zusammen GdE gemessenen Wert von 0,461. Die ungleiche Gewinnfälle Verteilung (Gesamtbetrag der Steuerlast der Einkünfte ist 0 durch ) den progressiven Verlauf des Steuertarifs begründet. Tabelle 3: Einkommensteuerpflichtige 2010 nach dem Gesamtbetrag der Einkünfte Die ungleiche Verteilung der Einkommen und der Steuerlast wird nochmals in Tabelle 4 deutlich, die im Gegensatz zu Tabelle 3 die höchsten negativen Einkünfte und die höchsten positiven
25 24/18 Control total for income, back Until 1918, income tax statistics are the most reliable source for national income (Helfferich, 1917) until German national accounts were first published. Two components taken from Hoffmann/Müller (1959) are added to taxable income recorded in the tax statistics to arrive at total household income: taxable income recorded in tax statistics + tax exempt income + income of non-filers with income beneath the tax allowance
26 25/18 Control total for income, , income controls for German state s result from the state s income share in total German income documented in tax statistics, i.e., Income Control s = (Tax Income s /Tax Income) Income Control
27 26/18 Control total for income, The income total is based on the national accounts published in Fachserie 18 Reihe 1.5 Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen. Inlandsproduktberechnung, Lange Reihen ab Total household income is the sum of Compensation of employees (Residents) (Arbeitnehmerentgelt (Inländer)) (Table 1.3) + Operation surplus (Betriebsüberschuss) (Table 1.10) + Income of self-employed (Selbständigeneinkommen) (Table 1.10) + Property income (Vermögenseinkommen) (Table 1.10) - Employers actual social contributions (Sozialbeiträge der Arbeitgeber) (Table 1.8). = Total household income
28 27/18 Control total for income year (0.9 x totpersinc from Statistical Office)/GDP Pref RefTotInc = (0.9 x totpersinc)/gdp Dell (2007) 0.53 x GDP (TaxStatInc x avgtaxpayerinc)/gdp (TaxStatInc x threshold)/gdp
29 28/18 Control total for population back Until 1918, population control is build on tax statistics: tax units recorded in tax statistics + non-filers/tax exempt (estimated by Hoffmann/Müller, 1959, and given in the tax statistics for Hesse (until 1883), Prussia and Saxony) From 1925 to the present, the population control for Germany is given by Married Couples/2 + Bachelors - Children (up to 19 years) , population controls for German state s result from its tax units share in German tax units, i.e., Population Control s = (Tax Units s /Tax Units) Population Control
30 29/18 Control total for population year Total adult population Total reference population (tax units) Dell (2007) Total population recorded in income and payroll tax statistics Total population recorded in income tax statistics
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