Labor market strength confirms. slowdown was temporary

Transcription

1 Labor market strength confirms the Fed view that the spring slowdown was temporary June 215 Peter Hooper, Torsten Slok, and Matthew Luzzetti 6 Wall Street New York, New York 15 Tel: DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 148/4/214.

2 Manufacturing employment holding up remarkably well despite the dollar appreciation Index 8 Real broad TWI (reverse axis, ls) Change in manufacturing employment(rs) chg m/m, Thous Source: FRB, BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 1

3 The economy continues to add 3mn jobs per year 12m moving 4 sum Change in total nonfarm employment 12m moving sum Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research -8 Deutsche Bank 2

4 Workers working part-time for economic reasons trending down sharply % % Part-time workers for economic reasons as share of total employment Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 3

5 Income growth expectations have risen suggesting further gains in ECI wages ahead % over next yr 6.5 Expected avg nominal income growth (ls) ECI: wages & salaries (rs) % y/y Source: Univ of Mich, BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 4

6 More evidence of inflation pressure in the pipeline: Companies planning to raise wages up significantly in recent months % of firms %y/y 25 2 NFIB: Companies planning to raise worker compensation (9 month lead, ls) ECI: wages & salaries: private industry workers (rs) Correlation= Source: NFIB, BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 5

7 and the ECI uptrend is consistent with the uptrend seen in the ECEC Employer Costs for Employee Compensation: wages & salaries (rs) Employment cost index: wages & salaries (rs) Avg hourly earnings, All workers (rs) %, AR Employment cost index: wages & salaries, 3-qtr change, ann (ls) %y/y All four wage measures flat Two wage measures trending up Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 6

8 ECI and AHE at their highest levels in five years % y/y % y/y ECI: wages and salaries (ls) 3.6 Avg hourly earnings: total pvt industries (rs) Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research 1.5 Deutsche Bank 7

9 Employer costs have risen significantly in recent quarters % y/y Employer costs for employee compensation % y/y Total Compensation, $ per hour Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 8

10 Significant increase in bonuses in recent quarters % y/y Employer costs for employee compensation: supplemental % y/y nonproduction bonuses Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 9

11 Wages rising faster for union workers % y/y Employer costs for employee compensation: private % y/y industry workers' compensation 14 Union Non-union Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 1

12 Broad uptrend in unit labor costs continues % chg,16q 2 Business sector: unit labor cost(ls) Fed fund target rate(rs) % Source: BLS, FRB, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 11

13 And unit labor costs point to higher inflation ahead %y/y Unit labor cost (ls, 9 month lead) Core CPI (rs) %y/y Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 12

14 Wage and income expectations near highest levels in five years % 14 Expectations of personal finances in 1 year: Relative score (ls) Percentage of consumers expecting household income to rise over next year (rs) % Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research 3 Deutsche Bank 13

15 People are voluntarily quitting jobs at a pre-crisis rate % JOLTS: Quits Rate (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) % Pre-crisis quits rate Source: BLS, FRB, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 14

16 Labor market tighter than in 26 % NFIB: percent of firms with positions not able to fill right now (ls) Thous. JOLTS: total job openings (rs) Source: NFIB, JOLTS BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 15

17 % Stronger momentum in the labor market than in when the fed funds rate was 5% Percent of nonfarm payrolls above 2k for the past 12 months (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) % Note: Source: BLS, FRB, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 16

18 Jobless claims at 2 levels % 12 Civilian unemployment rate (ls) Initial claims (rs) Thous Source: BLS, DoL, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 17

19 % May Labor market slack is declining: U-6 unchanged n May and has declined by more than 1.5% points over past year 25 - May 26 - May 27 - May 28 - May U6 unemployment 29 - May 21 - May May May May May 215 -May % Note: U6 is total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 18

20 Less slack in the labor market: Number of available people per job opening is now below its pre-crisis average People per job opening (People not in the labor force who want a job now + total number of unemployed) divided by (total number of job openings) Pre-crisis average People per job opening Source: BLS, JOLTS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 19

21 In 29 there were 6 unemployed workers per job opening. Now there are less than 2 Number Number of unemployed workers per job opening Number Source: BLS, JOLTS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 2

22 6 Mln Secular stagnation? 5mn job openings at the moment; up from 2mn in 29 Layoffs and discharges Openings Hires Separations Mln Source: BLS, JOLTS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 21

23 Secular stagnation? Permanent layoffs trending down sharply % Job losers % Permanent layoff (ls) Temporary layoff (rs) Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 22

24 Secular stagnation? Businesses more and more worried about tight labor markets NFIB: Single Most Important Problem % Reporting % Reporting 4 Poor Sales Quality of labor Pre-crisis level Source: NFIB, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 23

25 Employment Deutsche Bank 24

26 Average NFP 236k for the past six months Thous Change in total nonfarm payrolls Thous Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 25

27 Education and health services added 74k jobs in May Change in employment by industry, Apr15-May15 Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Government Construction Transportation & Warehousing Financial Activities Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Other Services Utilities Information Services Mining and Logging m/m chg, 12m MA m/m change Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 26

28 Most of the jobs created during this recovery are high-wage jobs Thous Cumulative increase in employment since Jan 21 High wage occupations Low wage occupations Medium wage occupations Total Thous High wage occupational categories are management, professional and related occupations. Medium wage categories are sales and office occupations; construction and extraction occupations; installation, maintenance and repair occupations; and production/transportation and material moving occupations. Low wage occupations are service occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry. Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 27

29 Employment now well above pre-crisis levels Mln All Employees: Total Nonfarm Mln Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 28

30 Employment/population ratio at post-crisis high in May % 65 Civilian employment/population ratio: 16 yr + % Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 29

31 Service jobs driving the recovery in total employment Mln All employees: private service-providing industries (ls) All employees: goods -producing industries (rs) The trend in service sector hiring has been remarkably stable over the past three years Mln Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 3

32 Construction and real estate employment trending higher Mln Total employment: Real estate (ls) Total employment: Construction (rs) Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Mln Deutsche Bank 31

33 Strong employment growth for teenagers in recent months % y/y Employment growth % y/y 15 Total nonfarm (ls) Teenagers ( years, rs) Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 32

34 More small businesses see employment rising than falling % NABE industry survey employment: percent % Rising Falling Source: NABE, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 33

35 Thous 23 Fiscal headwinds are gone: Instead of subtracting 1k jobs per month the government is now adding to jobs per month All employees: government Thous Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research 215 Deutsche Bank 34

36 Most job openings in the Trade, transportation & utilities sectors and Education and health services Share of job openings, 3m MA 25 2 Vacancy share Manufacturing Trade, transportation and utilities Education & health services Govt Construction Share of job openings, 3m MA Source: BLS, JOLTS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 35

37 Small companies hiring Chg.m/m ADP nonfarm private payroll employment (in thous.) employees 5+ employees Chg.m/m Note- Small payroll (1-49 employees), Medium payroll (5-499 employees), Large payroll (5+ employees) Source: ADP, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 36

38 More job openings in small companies recently Ratio Contributions to job openings 1-49 employees employees 25+ employees Ratio Source: JOLTS, BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 37

39 Gross job gains moving sideways across businesses Thousand Gross job gains Thousand employees 5 + employees 1-49 employees Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research 5 Deutsche Bank 38

40 Small and medium-sized companies play a very important role in the US economy Global employment in S&P5 companies is only 15% of US nonfarm payrolls* Global employment in S&P 5 companies divided by total US employment 17% Small and medium-sized businesses 83% * Data as of May 215 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 39

41 Secular stagnation? Small businesses more and more optimistic Net job creation and Small business optimism index Thous employees (ls) employees(ls) Index 8 NFIB: Small business optimism index (rs) Source: BLS, NFIB, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 4

42 Secular stagnation? Employment growth solid in small businesses Thousands, 4Q avg Net job creation Thousands, employees 5 + employees 4Q avg Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research -125 Deutsche Bank 41

43 %y/y 15 Growth of hiring for S&P5 companies fell recently Total global employment in S&P5 companies US nonfarm payroll employment %y/y Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, BLS, DB Global Markets Research -1 Deutsche Bank 42

44 A broad-based pickup in wages in the pipeline. Wage cost measures at pre-crisis levels % NFIB: Percent planning to raise worker compensation (ls) % NFIB: Percent raising worker compensation over past 3-6 mnths (rs) Pre-crisis average Source: NFIB, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 43

45 Secular stagnation? Almost all jobs created over the past four years have been full-time jobs mln 122 Civilians employed Full time (ls) Part time (rs) mln Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research 24. Deutsche Bank 44

46 Thous 3 25 Very low volatility in job growth recently 12-month standard deviation of monthly changes in NFP Thous Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 45

47 Thous, SA Number of people who went from Not in the labor force to Employed still very high Flows into Employment: Not in the Labor Force to Employed Thous, SA Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 46

48 Thous Average revision to nonfarm payrolls during this recovery: +3k Revision in nonfarm payroll growth, final number minus first print Average revision Thous Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research -1 Deutsche Bank 47

49 This is a broad-based recovery Index, 12 M MA 8 Employment diffusion index Index, 12 m MA Source: BLS,, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 48

50 Millennials have recovered completely from the financial crisis: Employment rate for people age back at pre-crisis average % 22. Percent employed between 25 to 34 years as share of total labor force % Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research 19. Deutsche Bank 49

51 % 2 Solid rise in employment to population ratio for people 65 years and over Employment to population ratio: 65 years and over % Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research 1 Deutsche Bank 5

52 % 67 Can the Fed reverse this trend? Employment-population ratio (ls) Population aged 25 to 54 as a share of total population (rs) % Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 51

53 Significant decline in disability insurance enrollment growth in recent years % y/y 8 Number of individuals receiving disability insurance % y/y Source: Social Security Administration, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research -2 Deutsche Bank 52

54 Job openings growing by around 1mn per year at the moment Openings (thous) Year over year change in job openings Openings (thous) Source: BLS, JOLTS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 53

55 A broad-based recovery: Number of job openings per unemployed is at 26 levels across industries ratio Vacancy/Unemployed by industry Construction Trade, transportation t ti and utilities Professional and business services Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Education and health services Government ratio Jan- 21 Jan- 22 Jan- 23 Jan- 24 Jan- 25 Jan- 26 Jan- 27 Jan- 28 Jan- 29 Jan- 21 Jan- 211 Jan- 212 Jan- 213 Jan- 214 Jan Source: BLS, JOLTS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 54

56 Unemployment Deutsche Bank 55

57 Unemployment rate in May at 5.5% % 1 Unemployment rate 1 % May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 56

58 Youth unemployment trending down % 3 Unemployment rate years years 16 yr and above % Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 57

59 Unemployment rate for people with less than a high-school diploma almost back to pre-crisis average % Unemployment rate % 16 College graduates: 25+ yrs Less than HS diploma: 25+ yrs Pre-crisis average Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 58

60 Short-term unemployment rate back to 25 level % of labor force 1 Unemployment rate by duration less than 5 weeks 5 to 14 weeks weeks 27 weeks and above % of labor force Source BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 59

61 Long-term unemployment falling: Less than 3% of the unemployed have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer % 5 Percent unemployed for 27 weeks and over % Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 6

62 % 12 Less than 2.5% of the labor force have been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer Unemployment rate 16yr and above Persons unemployed 15 weeks and longer, % of labor force % Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 61

63 Job finding probability highly cyclical Job finding probability % % 7 At Actual Trend Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 62

64 but job separation probability not cyclical Separation probability % % 5. Actual Trend Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 63

65 Labor market slack is declining across different measures % 4 Short term unemployment gap Not in LF gap Long term unemployment gap Part time employment gap 4 % Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 64

66 Unemployment duration trending down 45 Weeks Average (mean) duration of unemployment Median duration of unemployment Weeks Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 65

67 The probability that an unemployed person leaves the labor force fell in May.32 Probability in any given month that an unemployed person leaves the labor force Probability in any ygiven month that an unemployed person finds a job Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 66

68 Unemployment rate for production workers and professional workers at 26 levels Unemployment rate % % 17.5 Production occupations(rs) Professional & related occupations(ls) Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 67

69 Short term unemployed finding jobs faster Probability of reemployment by duration of unemployment: % less than 5 weeks % Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research 24 2 Deutsche Bank 68

70 Hours Worked Deutsche Bank 69

71 Average hours worked at levels hrs 34. Average weekly hours: total private industries hrs Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 7

72 Hours worked in goods producing sector remained stable May hrs Avg hours worked: Goods producing industries (ls) Avg hours worked: Private service sector (rs) hrs Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 71

73 % Currently harder to fill a job than in NFIB: Businesses with few or no qualified applicants for job openings average % Source: NFIB, DB Global Markets Research 2 Deutsche Bank 72

74 Overtime hours at pre-crisis levels hrs 6. Avg. weekly overtime hours: manfacturing hrs Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 73

75 Labor Force Participation Deutsche Bank 74

76 Recent Fed work suggests that those who left the labor force are not coming back % Labor force participation rate 68 Latest Fed projection (September 214) % Source: Aaronson et al. Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ( BLS,Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 75

77 Labor force participation rate rose slightly in May, a second consecutive time after April % 7. Labor force participation rate % Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 76

78 Participation rate for people with less than a high school diploma at 26 levels Civilian participation rate by education (25+ years) % % College graduates (ls) Less than HS Diploma (rs) Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 77

79 Composition of labor force changing Demographic composition of labor force Prime age males Prime age females Youths Older adults 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Note- Prime age represents age group, Youth represents age group and older adults represent 55 yrs & above 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 78

80 Participation for both women and men remain broadly unchanged Civilian participation rate: 16 yrs + % % Women(ls) Men(rs) Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 79

81 The actual number of people in the labor force trending up Mln 158 Civilian labour force Mln Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 8

82 Millions mn people are not in the labor force Civilians not in labor force Millions Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research 55 Deutsche Bank 81

83 Number of discouraged workers trending down Thous Marginally attached and discouraged workers in labour force Marginally attached Discouraged Thous Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 82

84 Significant drop in the number of discouraged workers in May Thous 14 Persons not in labor force who want a job but are not looking: Discouragement Thous Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research 2 Deutsche Bank 83

85 Mln People who are not in the labor force who want a job now moving sideways Persons not in the labor force: want a job now 16 yr + Mln Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 84

86 The Fed and the labor market Deutsche Bank 85

87 The Fed normally hikes rates when about a third of states have unemployment below the NAIRU % 1 Percentage of states with an unemployment rate below the NAIRU (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) 12 % The Fed normally starts hiking rates when 1/3 of states have an unemployment rate below the NAIRU Source: CBO (NAIRU), BLS, FRB, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 86

88 Historically a rising employment cost index (ECI) has been associated with Fed hikes in the 199s and 2s the Fed even hiked before we had seen a rise in the ECI % y/y Employment cost index (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) % ? Source: BLS, FRB, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 87

89 m/m chg 8 The Fed has historically hiked rates 2-3 years after the trough in employment growth Change in payroll employment (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) % years 2 years ? 2 Source: BLS, FRB, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 88

90 The cycle in unit labor costs has historically been correlated with the cycle in the Fed funds rate but not this time around % y/y Unit labor cost (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) % ? Source: BLS, FRB, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 89

91 The cycle in overtime hours has historically been associated with the cycle in the Fed funds rate but not this time around Hrs Average weekly hours: overtime in manufacturing (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) % Source: BLS, FRB, DB Global Markets Research? Deutsche Bank 9

92 The cycle in job openings has historically been associated with the cycle in the Fed funds rate but not this time around Thous % JOLTS job openings (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) Source: BLS, FRB, DB Global Markets Research? Deutsche Bank 91

93 The labor force participation rate has generally been uncorrelated with the fed funds rate % % 68 Labor force participation rate (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) Source: BLS, FRB, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 92

94 The employment to population ratio has historically had a loose relationship with the fed funds rate % % 66 Employment/population l ratio (ls) Fed funds target rate (rs) Source: BLS, FRB, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 93

95 The FOMC thinks the NAIRU is 5.1% Author(s) Serve and Lemoine (July 211) 7.2% Weidner and Williams (Feb 211) 6.7% Daly, Hobijn, and Valletta (July 211) 6.3% Aaronson, Mazumder, and Schechter (21) NAIRU estimate 6.2% Dickens (June 211) 6% Dickens and Triest (Oct 211) 6% Daly, Hobijn, Sahin, and Valletta (Sept 211) FOMC (Mar 15, Long-run unemployment rate, avg) 5.9% 5.1% Source: DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 94

96 International Comparison Deutsche Bank 95

97 US wages rising slower than wages in the rest of the world US= Norway Australia a Hourly compensation costs in manufacturing as a percent of costs in the US Germany France Ireland Canada US Japan Italy UK Spain Greece e Portugal Brazil Mexico China US= Note: Hourly comp in US in 1997 was $23.4 and in 212 it was $ Source: BLS, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 96

98 Wages in BRIC countries far below wage levels in OECD countries $/month Minimum wage for a full-time worker (Doing Business Survey 215) $/month Italy France Canada Ireland Japan United States United Kingdom Spain Greece Portugal Brazil Russian Fed deration China India Ge ermany* *Economies for which. is shown have no minimum wage in the private sector. Source: World Bank Doing Business Survey 215, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 97

99 Labor Market in the Long-run Deutsche Bank 98

100 Growth of working age population to slow sharply in years ahead 3-yr %chg, AR U.S. population Working age (15-64 yrs) Total 3-yr %chg, AR Projection Source: Census, DB Global Markets Research Deutsche Bank 99

101 Peter Hooper Managing Director, Chief Economist Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. +1 (212) Peter Hooper is currently Managing Director and Chief Economist for Deutsche Bank Securities. He joined Deutsche Bank Securities in the fall of 1999, first as Chief International Economist and shortly thereafter as Chief US Economist. He became Chief Economist and co-head of global economics in 26. Prior to joining Deutsche Bank, Hooper enjoyed a distinguished 26-year career at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. While rising to senior levels of the Fed staff, he held numerous positions, including as an economist on the FOMC and as Deputy Director of the Division of International Finance. Hooper produces weekly and quarterly publications for Deutsche Bank with a focus on US and global economic developments and Fed policy; he also comments on US and global economic and financial developments in the news media. His US Economics team has been ranked No. 1 in fixed income research by Institutional Investor in 21 and 211. Hooper currently serves as a member of the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a member and former chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association, a founding member of the US Monetary Policy Forum, a member of the Economic Leadership Council for the University of Michigan, and a member of the Forecasters Club of New York. Hooper earned a BA in Economics (cum laude) from Princeton University and an MA and Ph.D. in Economics from University of Michigan. He has published numerous books, journal articles, and reviews on economics and policy analysis. Deutsche Bank 1

102 Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief International Economist, Managing Director Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Torsten Slok joined Deutsche Bank Securities in the fall of 25. Mr. Slok s Economics team has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor for the past four years. Slok currently serves as a member of the Economic Club of New York Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Slok worked at the OECD in Paris in the Money and Finance Division and the Structural Policy Analysis Division. Before joining the OECD he worked for four years at the IMF in the Division responsible for writing the World Economic Outlook and the Division responsible for China, Hong Kong, and Mongolia. Mr. Slok studied at University of Copenhagen and Princeton University. He has published numerous journal articles and reviews on economics and policy analysis, including in Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, and The Econometric Journal. Deutsche Bank 11

103 5/6/215 12:34:58 21 DB Blue template Matthew Luzzetti Matthew Luzzetti joined Deutsche Bank in September 212 and is part of DB s top Institutional Investor-ranked economics team. He regularly contributes to Deutsche Bank s Global Economics publications, focusing on the US economy and Fed policy. Matthew holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles. Prior to UCLA, he worked as a research analyst in the macroeconomics department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. While at UCLA, Matthew worked at the US Department of the Treasury in the Office of Financial Research. Deutsche Bank 12

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