4.12 POPULATION, HOUSING, AND EMPLOYMENT

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1 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY 4.12 POPULATION, HOUSING, AND EMPLOYMENT This section discusses the effects the proposed project may potentially have on local and regional population, housing, and employment. The proposed project is analyzed with regard to citywide and regional impacts. These impacts are evaluated in terms of projections provided by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). Sources utilized to prepare this section include personal communications with The Monrovia Nursery Company personnel, California Department of Finance data, and demographic projections provided by SCAG. ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING SCAG is the regional planning agency for a six-county region (Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, and Imperial). Its mission is to develop long-range regional plans and strategies that provide for efficient movement of people, goods, and information, enhance economic growth and international trade, and improve the quality of life for the Southern California region. SCAG is divided into 14 subregions. The proposed project area is in the San Gabriel Valley Council of Government (SGVCOG) subregion. SCAG is also the agency that develops forecasts for population, housing, and employment for the region. These forecasts are used in this analysis to assess the potential for impacts from the proposed project. Table presents the SCAG forecasts for population, housing, and employment for the SGVCOG subregion, and the City of Azusa. TABLE : SCAG REGIONAL GROWTH FORECASTS Year SGVCOG Subregional Forecast 1,797,600 1,900,760 1,952,061 2,002,508 2,070,960 Units 524, , , , , , , , , ,007 City of Azusa Forecast 45,948 49,064 49,428 49,788 50,274 Units 13,061 13,437 13,612 13,789 13,966 14,507 15,051 15,609 15,941 16,242 SOURCE: SCGVCOG and City of Azusa forecasts provided by the Southern California Association of Governments, August The existing population of the City of Azusa is 45,948 persons, as of the 2000 United States Census. 1 The average household size in the City is persons. Almost 1.8 million people reside within the SGVCOG (see Table ) Provided by SCAG, Letter to Mr. Larry Onaga, City of Azusa from Jeffrey Smith, Senior Planner, SCAG, August 7,

2 The City recently adopted a new General Plan Element (December, 2001). Contained in the updated Element are policies that relate specifically to the Monrovia Nursery site. These policies include the following: Utilize the specific plan process as a tool to provide flexible and creative solutions to housing on larger pieces of property, such as the Azusa Pacific University and Monrovia Nursery sites (Policy H 3.4). Provide a range of residential development types in Azusa, including low density single-family homes, moderate density townhomes, higher density apartments and condominiums, and residential/ commercial mixed use in order to address the City s share of regional housing needs (Policy H 1.1). The Nursery currently employs an average of 500 employees per day. 2 During peak seasons the number of employees is higher than 500, and during off-seasons the number of employees is lower. An average is therefore used to account for these differences. SCAG estimates that 14,507 persons are currently employed within the City of Azusa (2000), while the SGVCOG has over 720,000 employees (see Table ). SIGNIFICANCE CRITERIA The proposed project would have a significant adverse impact in this category if: The project would stimulate population, housing, or employment growth beyond levels anticipated in local and regional growth projections; or The project would displace residents, housing, or employees. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS The proposed project would develop 1,575 dwelling units on the project site. Based on the current average household size in the City of persons per household, the proposed project housing has the potential to generate up to 5,505 new residents. Local Forecasts. The City of Azusa currently allows for limited population growth by designating the portion of the site in the foothills for conservation and the remainder of the site for rural development at a maximum of two dwelling units per acre (see Section 4.6 Land Use ). With 275 of the site s 520 acres designated for rural densities, up to 550 housing units could be developed on the site under the existing General Plan. The proposed project would therefore exceed the local population projections for this site. However, as indicated in Section 4.6 of this EIR, a General Plan amendment is anticipated as part of the project. The General Plan amendment would also change the zoning of the site to Specific Plan (SP-5), which would permit the amount of proposed development. Therefore, if the General Plan amendment is approved by the City of Azusa, the proposed number of dwelling units and population estimates would be consistent with the projections for this site. 2 The number of employees was provided by personal communication with Bill Jameson, CFO, the Monrovia Nursery Company, September

3 Regional Forecasts. SCAG forecasts indicate that population within the City of Azusa is anticipated to increase by 9.5 percent, or 4,326 persons, between 2000 and The proposed project would generate 5,505, or 1,179 more residents than those projected by SCAG for the City of Azusa for However, the proposed project would be consistent with the basic policies of the Regional Comprehensive Plan and Guide (RCPG) which calls for focusing growth within already developed urban areas through infill development, developing at higher densities along major transit and transportation corridors, and providing on-site support commercial and public uses to serve new residents. Focusing growth within these parameters would help reduce urban sprawl and its consequences of impaired vehicular mobility and increased air pollution in the region. Therefore, no significant adverse impacts are anticipated. Displacement of Residents. Currently, one residence on the Nursery property is occupied by a long-time Nursery employee and his family. The Nursery employee, who has lived on-site for 20 years has announced his retirement and is in the process of voluntarily moving off of the site. The Nursery does not have any plans to reoccupy the structure. Therefore, no significant adverse impacts are anticipated. See Section 4.6 Land Use of this EIR for additional discussion of regional polices applicable to population (see Table regarding SCAG policies). As stated above in the Setting section, the City s recently adopted updated General Plan Element includes policies that seek to facilitate the use of the specific plan process as a planning tool and diversify the range of housing available in the City. The proposed project is designed as a Specific Plan and under its guidelines would develop 1,575 dwelling units on the project site in a variety of housing types. Thus, the proposed project is consistent with the City of Azusa s General Plan Element Update. Local Forecasts. The City of Azusa currently allows for limited population growth by designating the foothills portion of the site for conservation and the remainder of the site for rural development at a maximum of two dwelling units per acre (see Section 4.6 Land Use of this EIR). With 275 of the site s 520 acres designated for rural densities, up to 550 housing units could be developed on the site under the existing General Plan. The proposed project would therefore exceed the local housing projections for this site. However, as indicated in Section 4.6 of this EIR, a General Plan amendment is anticipated as part of the project. The General Plan amendment would also change the zoning of the site to Monrovia Nursery Specific Plan, which would permit the amount of proposed development. Therefore, if the General Plan amendment is approved by the City of Azusa, the proposed number of dwelling units would be consistent with the projections for this site. In addition, the Monrovia Nursery Specific Plan proposes a variety of housing types, such as detached singlefamily homes and single-family attached homes, which would provide housing and ownership opportunities for a wide range of economic segments of the City. The residences are proposed as for-sale units with rental units possible in a mixed-use condition above retail or office. The provision of this housing would be consistent with the City of Azusa s objective to encourage the development of residences and ownership of units in order to increase neighborhood stability. 3 This would result in a beneficial impact. Furthermore, SCAG projections indicate that employment growth will outpace housing growth in both the SGVCOG Subregion (14.6 percent employment growth between 2000 and 2020 versus 11.6 percent housing growth during the same period) and the City of Azusa (11.9 percent employment growth between 2000 and 2020 versus 6.9 percent housing growth). Therefore, both the Subregion and the City would have less housing than jobs. The provision of additional housing within the City would result in a beneficial impact to the Subregion and the City in terms of balancing housing and employment. 3 Azusa General Plan Land Use Element, April 1983, as amended

4 Regional Forecasts. SCAG forecasts indicate that housing units within the City of Azusa are anticipated to increase by 6.9 percent, or 905 housing units, between 2000 and The proposed project would generate 670 more housing units than those projected by SCAG for the City of Azusa for the The proposed project would exceed the regional growth forecasts for the City of Azusa. However, the proposed project would be consistent with the basic policies of the SCAG RCPG which calls for focusing growth within already developed urban areas through infill development, developing at higher densities along major transit and transportation corridors, and providing on-site support commercial and public uses to serve new residents. Focusing growth within these parameters would help reduce urban sprawl and its consequences of impaired vehicular mobility and increased air pollution in the region. Therefore, no significant adverse impacts are anticipated. Displacement of Households. There are no occupied housing units on the project site and no significant adverse impacts are anticipated. See Section 4.6, Land Use for additional discussion of regional polices applicable to housing (see Table regarding SCAG policies). The proposed project would develop 50,000 square feet of commercial uses. Preliminary data provided by Kosmont Partners, the preparers of the Monrovia Nursery Fiscal Impact Analysis, indicates that 153 employment opportunities would be created as a result of the Monrovia Nursery Specific Plan. 4 Administrative and teaching positions at the proposed school would also provide employment opportunities. Development would result in a net reduction in employees on the site. Local Forecasts. A General Plan amendment is anticipated as part of the project. The General Plan amendment would also change the zoning of the site to Monrovia Nursery Specific Plan, which would allow for the development of commercial uses on the site. Therefore, if the General Plan amendment is approved by the City of Azusa, the proposed commercial development would be consistent with the projections for this site. Regional Forecasts. SCAG employment forecasts for the City of Azusa in the 2020 are 16,242, an 11.9 percent increase over the This totals over 1,700 jobs more than currently exist in the City. The proposed project employment would not exceed the growth forecasts for the City, therefore no significant adverse impacts are anticipated. Displacement of Employees. The proposed development would relocate operations at the Monrovia Nursery Company s Azusa facility to other Monrovia Nursery Company facilities throughout the nation. This change would displace an average of 500 local jobs. The Monrovia Nursery Company has offered in the past and continues to offer to relocate any of its employees at the Azusa facility to one of its other facilities. For those employees who do not wish to be relocated, the Monrovia Nursery Company has prepared a Separation Plan that provides job training for other types of employment; English as a second language (ESL) classes; and onsite visits by employment agencies. The Monrovia Nursery Company has also presented a financial compensation package to those employees that leave the Company. Employees are financially compensated depending on their years of service. The Monrovia Nursery Company put forward a Separation Plan stating that each employee with 10 years or less of service would receive 2 week s base pay for each full year of service for those years. Those employees who would have worked for the company for 11 years or more would receive 3 week s base pay for each full year 4 Kosmont Partners, Monrovia Nursery Fiscal Impact Analysis, September

5 of service for those years after the first 10 years. Depending upon the number of years of service, the maximum payment would be 1 year (52 weeks) of base pay and the minimum payment would be 2 weeks of base pay. Those who have been with the Company for 20 years or more would receive one year s base pay and part-time employees would receive a portion of the plan. Less-than-significant impacts would result with implementation of the Nursery s Separation Plan. See Section 4.6, Land Use for additional discussion of regional polices applicable to employment (see Table regarding SCAG policies). MITIGATION MEASURES No adverse population impacts are anticipated and no mitigation is required. No adverse housing impacts are anticipated and no mitigation is required. No adverse employment impacts are anticipated and no mitigation is required. UNAVOIDABLE SIGNIFICANT ADVERSE IMPACTS The proposed project would not result in significant adverse impacts to population, housing, or employment