SOCIAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE

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1 DRAFT - 12/1/13 SOCIAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE SOCIAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE 5 Trends, 5 Key Findings 2013 World Series Champions Year in Review Survey of Young Americans Attitudes Toward Politics and Public Service Harvard Public Opinion Project by SocialSphere, Inc. 22 November 2013 Ticket Sales Announcement December 4, 2013

2 Introduction 3 Approval Rating: President Obama 5 Party Identification 6 SOCIAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE Approval Rating: Congress 7 Likelihood of Voting 8 Social Media Use 9 Affordable Care Act / Obamacare 11 Budget Priorities 12 Student Debt 13 Edward Snowden and Privacy 14 Ticket Sales Announcement Recall and Re-Cast 15 2

3 Introduction Conceived by two Harvard undergraduate students during the winter of 1999, Harvard University s Institute of Politics Survey of Young Americans Attitudes toward Politics and Public Service began in 2000 as a national survey of 18-to 24- year old college undergraduates. Over the last 13 years, this research project has grown in scope and mission, as we now analyze 18- to 29- year olds on a broad set of longitudinal and current events issues. Each semester, IOP Director of Polling John Della Volpe leads a study group of undergraduates who collaborate to write, design and analyze the survey. The following pages represent data and insight beginning in 2009, including five of the key findings from our latest survey, which was conducted from October 30 - November 11, 2013 of N=2,089 young adults between 18 and 29 years old. 3

4 KEY TRENDS Obama Years,

5 1) Millennial Views of Obama Now Tracking with All Adults Approval Rating: Barack Obama 60% 58% 50% 2010 Elections: Republicans gained 5 seats in Senate, 62 in House. 56% 49% 55% Obama Re-elected Death of Osama Bin Laden 52% 52% 52% 46% 40% 41% 30% Nov Oct Dec Oct Nov Gallup 18+ IOP

6 2) Younger Millennials, Trending Less Democratic 50% 35% 43% Democrat Republican 23% 23% 20% 38% 38% 38% 38% 21% Party Identification: Year Olds 28% 26% 27% 36% 36% 36% 31% 24% 25% 25% 11/09 11/9 10/10 2/11 12/11 3/12 10/12 4/13 11/13 50% Democrat Republican Party Identification: Year Olds 35% 35% 34% 35% 30% 20% 22% 23% 39% 38% 38% 39% 37% 38% 28% 25% 19% 23% 23% 22% 11/09 11/9 10/10 2/11 12/11 3/12 10/12 4/13 11/13 6

7 3) Approval of Republicans in Congress Low; Getting Lower Approval Rating: Democrats, Republicans in Congress 50% 48% 35% 35% 20% 45% 42% 39% 39% 41% 40% 35% 32% 33% 30% 28% 27% 24% 25% 23% 19% 11/09 11/9 10/10 2/11 12/11 3/12 10/12 4/13 11/13 Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress 7

8 4) Midterm Enthusiasm Lacking for Young Blacks % Who Say They Will Definitely Vote in Next Mid-Term Election 50% 49% 37% 34% 37% 36% 37% 25% 26% 28% 0% Total White Black Hispanic November 2009 November

9 5) Facebook Use Shows Slight Decline Across the Board February 2010 April 2013 November 2013 % on % on Total 64% 83% 79% Total 15% 33% 35% White 74% 86% 83% White 16% 33% 35% Black 56% 76% 73% Black 18% 35% 38% Hispanic 36% 80% 70% Hispanic 10% 29% 31% 0% 45% 90% 0% 20% 40% Total 37% 30% 25% 16% 10% 5% White 34% 28% 31% 19% 10% 5% Black 44% 37% 13% 9% 7% 3% Hispanic 35% 33% 17% 14% 11% 6% 9

10 KEY FINDINGS Fall 2013 Survey 10

11 1) Most Believe ACA/Obamacare Will Bring Higher Costs, Worse Care Do you approve or disapprove of, the comprehensive health reform package that the President signed into law in 2010? Do you believe that your quality of care will get better, get worse or stay about the same under? Do you believe that the amount you pay for care will increase, decrease or stay about the same under? [Obamacare] [Obamacare] [Obamacare] Disapprove 57% 5% Approve 38% Same 37% Better 18% Worse 40% Same 34% Decrease 11% Increase 51% [Affordable Care Act] [Affordable Care Act] [Affordable Care Act] Disapprove 56% 5% Approve 39% Same 34% Better 17% Worse 44% Same 36% Decrease 10% Increase 50% Among the 18- to 29- year olds currently without health insurance, less than 1/3 say they re likely to enroll in the exchange (13% say they will definitely enroll,16% say they will probably enroll); 41% say they are at the moment. 11

12 2) Buffet Rule, Cutting Foreign Aid and Nuclear Warheads Preferred by All Parties As Way of Reducing Deficit 69% of the time, 18- to 29- year olds prefer enacting The Buffet Rule, a requirement that people making over $1 million a year pay at least 30% of their income in taxes over five other options offered to reduce the federal budget deficit. The only option that gained support from majority of each party, the Buffet Rule was preferred by 83% of Democrats, 69% of Independents -- and 57% of Republicans. 71% of the time, 18- to 29- year olds -- and a majority in each party (73% of Democrats, 78% of Republicans and 69% of Independents) support cutting foreign economic aid in half, as a means to reduce the federal deficit when paired against the five other options offered. Reduce(ing) spending related to the nuclear arsenal by reducing U.S. nuclear warheads from approximately 2,000 to approximately 1,550 received similar levels of support (70% overall, 78% of Democrats, 59% of Republicans and 73% of Independents). Following are the remaining options respondents considered to reduce the federal deficit. Group A (left) expected to reduce the deficit between $ Billion through 2020; Group B (right) to reduce the deficit between $70-$9) Billion over same time period. - Raise the retirement age for Social Security from 65 to Increase gas tax by 15 cents per gallon. - Reduce food stamp levels to 2008 levels and limit growth in spending on food stamps to the rate of inflation. - Reduce US Navy fleet to 230 ships (from a projected 320 ships). - Raise Medicare premiums to 35% of costs. - Reduce Social Security benefits, except for workers who earn below the 30th percentile of earnings. - Significantly reduce the Earned Income Tax Credit, an offset to payroll taxes for low-income workers with children, and the Child Tax Credit. - Cut federal K-12 funding by 25 percent. - Increase gas tax by 6 cents; 12

13 3) Student Debt Issues Transcend Political Party Affiliation Do you, or does someone in your household, currently have student loan debt? (by Party ID) 42% 45% 40% 43% 58% of college graduates report having student debt. Total Democrat Republican Independent Do you personally view the issue of student debt for young people in the United States to be a... Major Problem Minor Problem Not a Problem 4% 22% 57% Little disagreement among parties regarding severity of student debt problem. D s (62%), R s (57%) and I s (55%) believe its a major problem. How important a role did (or does) your financial circumstances play in your decision whether or not to pursue a college education? 5% Not Important 25% 87% of students in 2-year and community college say that financial circumstances played an important role. Important 70% 13

14 4) Millennials Unsure About Snowden s Legacy; Most Oppose Government Collection of Personal Information Based on what you know at this time, which of the following words best describes your view of Edward Snowden? Patriot 22% Social network activity Web browsing activity What personal information, if any, do you approve of the US government collecting to aid national security efforts? What personal information, if any, do you approve of the US government collecting from you to aid national security efforts? 30% 19% 24% 15% GPS location 19% 14% Unsure 52% Traitor 22% Telephone calls 18% 14% 17% 13% Texts 15% 11% If you found yourself in a position similar to that of Edward Snowden, would you release the classified documents to the media, or would you not release the documents? 15% Would Release 31% Would Not Release 50% Not Sure 14

15 5) Significant Difference Between the Way Young and Older Millennials View Obama If you could choose to recall and replace various elected officials today, would you recall: If you could re-cast your 2012 vote for President today, for whom would you vote? All Members of Congress 52% 50% 54% Among Obama Voters in 2012 Among Romney Voters in 2012 Your Member 45% 46% 45% Barack Obama 83% 1% President Obama 47% 52% 40% 0% 25% 50% Total Mitt Romney 4% 91% Someone Else 8% 6% 15

16 SOCIAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE SOCIAL For More Information MEDIA INTELLIGENCE 2013 World Series Champions Year in Review John Della Volpe. Director of Polling by SocialSphere, Inc. 22 November 2013 Esten Perez, Director of Communications Ticket Sales Announcement 16