Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook Q3:2017

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1 Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook Q: NBG - Economic Analysis Division Paul Mylonas, PhD : pmylonas@nbg.gr Emerging Markets Research Head: Michael Loufir : mloufir@nbg.gr Analysts: Konstantinos Romanos-Louizos : romanos.louizos.k@nbg.gr Louiza Troupi : troupi.louiza@nbg.gr Athanasios Lampousis : lampousis.athanasios@nbg.gr Balance of Payments The information in this document, being distributed by National Bank of Greece S.A., is based upon data and sources of information believed to be correct and reliable but the accuracy of which cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, implied or expressed, is made by any member of National Bank of Greece S.A. as to its accuracy adequacy, timeliness or completeness.

2 NBG-Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook General information Date of next elections Official financial support Foreign currency debt rating Global competitiveness index Ease of doing business index Real sector Industrial production Real GDP growth Output gap Employment Unemployment Wages (nominal and real) Wages (nominal, EUR) and Tax rates Balance of payments External trade Real effective exchange rate Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital flows FX reserves Short-term external debt / FX reserves Balance of payments External financing External debt Real estate prices Inflation Nominal effective exchange rate NBG - Economic Analysis Division Q: Policy rate Reserve requirement ratios Fiscal balance Public debt Financial Markets Exchange rates Money market rates Government debt rates Sovereign spreads Stock market Banking sector Total loans (m-o-m % change) Total loans (y-o-y % change) Retail loans (y-o-y % change) Corporate loans (y-o-y % change) Total deposits (m-o-m % change) Total deposits (y-o-y % change) Retail deposits (y-o-y % change) Corporate deposits (y-o-y % change) Loans/GDP (%) FX loans/total loans (%) Deposits/GDP (%) FX deposits/total deposits (%) Loans/deposits (%) ROAE (%) CAD (%) NPL ratio (%) Foreign ownership

3 General information Republic of Republic of Population ( estimate, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Recep Tayyip ERDOGAN Head of Government: Binali YILDIRIM Minister of Finance: Naci AGBAL Central Bank Governor: Murat CETINKAYA Population (, estimate, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Semi Presidential Republic Chief of state: Klaus Werner IOHANNIS Head of Government: Sorin Mihai TUDOSE Minister of Finance: Ionut MISA Central Bank Governor: Mugur ISARESCU Population (, estimate, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Rumen RADEV Head of Government: Boyko BORISOV Minister of Finance: Vladislav GORANOV Central Bank Governor: Dimitar RADEV Republic of Population (, estimate, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Aleksandar VUCIC Head of Government: Ana BRNABIC Minister of Finance: Dusan VUJOVIC Central Bank Governor: Jorgovanka TABAKOVIC Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Population (, estimate, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Gjorge IVANOV Head of Government: Zoran ZAEV Minister of Finance: Dragan TEVDOVSKI Central Bank Governor: Dimitar BOGOV Republic of Population (, estimate, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Ilir META Head of Government: Edi RAMA Minister of Finance: Helga VUKAJ Central Bank Governor: Gent SEJKO Republic of Arab Republic of Population (, estimate, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Presidential Republic without PM Chief of state: Nicos ANASTASIADES Head of Government: Nicos ANASTASIADES Minister of Finance: Harris GEORGIADES Central Bank Governor: Chrystalla GEORGHADJI Population (, estimate, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Semi Presidential Republic Chief of state: Abdel Fattah Said AL-SISI Head of Government: Sherif Ismail MOHAMED Minister of Finance: Amr EL-GARHY Central Bank Governor: Tarek AMER NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

4 Date of next elections In, local elections, initially scheduled for May, will take place on October th. The delay was due to the political crisis Date of Next Elections Legislative October December March April May June May Oct.- Dec. Presidential August November November April April July February May Local March June October April October June December Unknown * *: Last local elections were held in April NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

5 Official financial support Under s ongoing -year EUR.bn precautionary SBA, approved ½-years ago, funds available amount to EUR.mn (equivalent to.% of the GDP). s EUR.mn Extended-Fund Facility was successfully concluded in February; however, in view of the country s large outstanding credit to the Fund (% of quota), the IMF will remain engaged with through a Post-Programme Monitoring IMF & EU Financial Support (EUR bn) Period * - * * - * Programme Drawn so far Repaid IMF ** EU IMF ** EU IMF since since EU since Next Repayments IMF EU EUR.,., and.bn, respectively, in,, and Starting in Starting in Starting in Starting in * Precautionary ** bn USD NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

6 Foreign currency credit rating In the first months of this year: i) was upgraded by one notch to BB+ by S&P and BB- by Moody s; ii) s rating was increased by one notch to BB- by Moody s; while iii) was downgraded by one notch by Fitch A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B B B Caa Caa Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / April S&P/Fitch Investment Grades Non-Investment Grades BB BB- B+ B B- A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating June / February Moody's S&P/Fitch,, BBB+ Investment Grades, Non-Investment Grades A A- BBB,, BB+, BB,, B+, Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / February S&P/Fitch A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B Investment Grades Non-Investment Grades, A, A-, BBB+ BBB,, BB+, BB,, B+, Moodys S&P Fitch Moody's S&P Fitch Moody's S&P Fitch A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B B B Caa Caa Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / February S&P/Fitch A, A-, Investment Grades BBB+, BBB, BBB-, BB+, BB, BB-, B+ Non-Investment Grades, B, B-, CCC+, CCC, Moody's S&P Fitch Investment Grades Non-Investment Grades Long-Term Foreign Debt Currency Ratings, Sept. S&P Moody's Fitch A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB-, BB+, BB BB-,,, B+ B B- CCC+ Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / April S&P/Fitch A, A, Baa Investment Grades A- BBB+, Baa BBB, Baa BBB-, Ba BB+, Ba BB, Ba BB-, B B+, B B Non-Investment Grades, B B-, Caa CCC+, Caa CCC, S&P Fitch BBB- BB- BBB- BB- Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / February S&P/Fitch, A A A, Investment Grades A- Baa BBB+, Baa BBB, Baa BBB-, Ba BB+, Ba BB, Ba BB-, B B+ Non-Investment Grades, B B, B B-, Caa CCC+, Caa CCC,,,, AA-, A+, A, A- BBB+, BBB, BBB-, BB+, BB BB-, B+, B, B-, CCC+, CCC,, Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating June / February Moody's S&P/Fitch Aa A Investment Grades A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B B Non-Investment Grades B Caa Caa Caa CCC- A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B B B Caa Caa Caa Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / April S&P/Fitch Investment Grades Non-Investment Grades A, A-,,,,,,,,,,,, BBB+ BBB BB+ BB BBB- CCC+ CCC S&P Moody's Moodys S&P Fitch Moodys S&P Fitch NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

7 Global competitiveness index -* (World Economic Forum) According to the latest WEF s GCI, is the most competitive among the countries under review Global Competitiveness Index - Global Competitiveness Index - Global Competitiveness Index - Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Technological readiness Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Higher education and training Goods market efficiency th out of Technological readiness Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Higher education and training Goods market efficiency nd out of Technological readiness Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Higher education and training Goods market efficiency th out of Global Competitiveness Index - Business sophistication Market size Technological readiness Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Higher education and training Global Competitiveness Index* (-) Global Competitiveness Index - Business sophistication Market size Technological readiness Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Higher education and training Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Goods market efficiency th out of Less favourable standing More favourable standing * Rankings are based on average scores out of countries Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Goods market efficiency th out of Global Competitiveness Index - Global Competitiveness Index - Global Competitiveness Index - Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Technological readiness Higher education and training Technological readiness Higher education and training Technological readiness Higher education and training Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Goods market efficiency th out of Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Goods market efficiency rd out of Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Goods market efficiency th out of NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

8 Ease of doing business index * (World Bank) The latest WB s EDBI shows that has the most favourable standing among the countries under review Ease of Doing Business Index Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Ease of Doing Business Index Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Ease of Doing Business Index Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Ease of Doing Business Index Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Ease of Doing Business Index* () Ease of Doing Business Index Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Less favourable standing More favourable standing * Rankings are based on average scores out of countries Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Ease of Doing Business Index Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Ease of Doing Business Index Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Ease of Doing Business Index Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit nd out of NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

9 Industrial production (-month rolling, y-o-y % change) The contribution of industrial output to gross value added growth has improved markedly in and, since the beginning of the year Industrial Production (y-o-y % change) Industrial Output (% of GDP, ) Industrial Production (y-o-y % change) N.A Industrial Production (y-o-y % change) Industrial Production (y-o-y % change) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

10 Real GDP growth, potential Real GDP growth, output gap and per capita (nominal) GDP All the economies under review are set to post solid growth this year Large output gaps in, and point to an overheating of the economy and increasing inflationary pressures Real GDP Growth (%) Potential Real GDP Growth (%) F F Long-Term,,,, -, -, Output Gap (% of Potential Output),,,,,, -, -, -, -, Per Capita (Nominal) GDP F ' EUR % EU- average NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

11 Real GDP (-quarter rolling, y-o-y % change) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Real GDP growth is expected to range between.% and.% in the economies under review this year Forecast Forecast Forecast Real GDP Growth (F, %) Forecast To be updated Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

12 Output gap (-quarter rolling) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The output gap should remain negative in,, and this year Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q==) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs),,,,,,,, -, -, -, -, Output Gap (% of Potential Output, F),,,,,,,, -, -, -, -, Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

13 Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Employment to be supported by buoyant economic activity this year - - Employment (y-o-y % change) n.a Total Non-farm Employment (y-o-y % change) Employment (y-o-y % change) Employment (y-o-y % change) Employment (y-o-y % change) - - NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

14 Unemployment rate (%) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The unemployment rate is expected to decline this year in all the countries under review, except Unemployment Rate (%) Total Non-farm Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

15 Nominal and real wages (y-o-y % change) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * ** Real wages continue to post strong growth in and (% - %), boosting private consumption Gross Wages in Manufacturing (y-o-y % change) Nominal Real Nominal Real Nominal Real Real Gross Wages (y-o-y % change) n.a Average Net Wages (y-o-y % change) Nominal Real * Public sector ** Net Nominal Real Gross Wages (y-o-y % change) Gross Wages (y-o-y % change) Nominal Real Nominal Real Nominal Real NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

16 Nominal wages in EUR and tax rates ** * and are the most competitive in terms of labour costs has the most favourable personal and corporate income tax rates Gross Wages (Monthly Average, EUR, ) n.a. * Public sector ** Net Tax Rates (%) Personal Income Corporate Income Greece. -.. NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

17 External trade (-month rolling, y-o-y % change) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Buoyant exports in all the economies under review since the beginning of the year, contributing to the acceleration in economic activity External Trade (USD terms, y-o-y % change) Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports & Imports (% of GDP, ) External Trade (EUR terms, y-o-y % change) Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports - - Exports Imports Exports Exports excl. ships (available from Q:) Imports Imports excl. ships (available from Q:) External Trade (USD terms, y-o-y % change) Exports Imports NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

18 CPI-based real effective exchange rate Competitiveness in all the countries under review has improved significantly over the past years, except CPI-based REER REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) M Average REER (December -June, % change) CPI-based REER REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) CPI-based REER CPI-based REER REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

19 Current account balance (-month rolling, % of GDP) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * * Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The current account deficit is set to remain at sustainable levels this year in most of the economies under review, despite an unfavourable energy bill. remains the best performer, by far, among the economies under review Current Account Balance (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP, June ) n.a. Current Account Balance (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) * Mar. Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Current Account Balance (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excl. Energy) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

20 Net foreign direct investments (-month rolling, % of GDP) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * * Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: In all countries under review, net FDI remains close to historically low levels, except, where energy projects continue to attract large investments FDI (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) FDI (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP, June ) FDI (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) * Mar. FDI (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) FDI (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

21 Other net capital flows, excluding IMF funding and net errors and omissions (-month rolling, % of GDP) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * * Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Other net capital flows remain positive in most of the economies under review Other Investment (-M Rolling Sum, as % of GDP) Other Investment (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP, June ) Other Investment (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) - - * Mar Other Investment (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Other Investment (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

22 Foreign exchange reserves In all countries under review, import cover largely surpasses the critical level of months FX Reserves FX Reserves (in USD bn, left scale) Months of import of GNFS (right scale) IMF/EU Disbursements (EUR bn, left scale) FX Reserves (excl. IMF and EU, EUR bn, left scale) Months of Imports of GNFS (right scale) FX Reserves (EUR bn., left scale) Months of Imports of GNFS (right scale) FX Reserves (Months of Imports of GNFS, ) Critical Level,,,,, FX Reserves,,,,,,, n.a.,, IMF Disbursements (EUR bn, left scale) FX Reserves (EUR bn, excl. IMF, left scale) Months of imports of GNFS (right scale) IMF Disbursements (EUR bn., left scale) FX Reserves (excl. IMF, EUR bn, left scale) Months of Import of GNFS (right scale),, FX Reserves,,,,,,,,,, N.A.,, IMF Disbursements (EUR bn, left scale) FX Reserves (EUR bn, excl. IMF, left scale) Months of imports of GNFS (right scale) IMF Disbursements (USD bn, left scale) FX Reserves (USD bn, left scale) Months of Import of GNFS (right scale) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

23 Short-term external debt-to-foreign exchange reserves ratio (%) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Short-term external debt is comfortably covered by FX reserves in all countries under review, with the exception of Short-Term External Debt / FX Reserves (%) Short-Term External Debt Short-Term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-Term External Debt Short-Term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-Term External Debt excluding Interbank Lending Short-Term External Debt Short-Term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-Term External Debt / FX Reserves (%, ) Short-term External Debt / FX Reserves (%) n.a. Short-Term External Debt Short-term External Debt Short-term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-Term External Debt / FX Reserves (%) N.A. Short-Term External Debt Short-Term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-term External Debt Short-term External Debt excluding Trade Credits NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

24 Balance of payments (-month rolling, % of GDP) The current account deficit is adequately covered by (net) FDI in all countries under review, except and : : F Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital inflows * : : F Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital inflows * : : F Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital inflows * : : F Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital inflows * : : F Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital inflows * : : F Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital inflows * ** **: assuming other IFI support of.% of GDP in FY: : : F Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital inflows * # :/ :/ E F Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital inflows * *: excluding IMF and ESM funding and net errors and omissions, #: Fiscal year ending on June th NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

25 External financing Among the countries under review, only, and are expected to resort to FX reserves to fill their financing gap (USD bn) F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs n.a. n.a. n.a. Other... Change in FX Res (EUR bn) F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF Other IFIs Other... Change in FX Res (EUR bn) F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs n.a. n.a. n.a. Other... Change in FX Res.... (EUR bn) F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF -...* Other IFIs... Other... Change in FX Res *: assuming no disbursements from the IMF in (EUR bn) F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF -... Other IFIs n.a. n.a. n.a. Other... Change in FX Res (EUR bn) F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs... Other... Change in FX Res.... (EUR bn) F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI IMF... Other IFIs... Other... Change in FX Res.... (USD bn) / /E /F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs n.a... Other... Change in FX Res NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

26 External debt Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q; Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The external debt-to-gdp ratio does not exceed % in the countries under review, with the exception of Gross External Debt (as % of GDP) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Short-Term External Debt (as % of Tot. Ext. Debt, rhs) Public Sector (lhs) Q:-Q:: Banking Sector NBG (lhs) estimate Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending (lhs) Short-Term Debt (as % of Gross External Debt, rhs) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending Short-Term Debt (as % of Gross External Debt, rhs) External Debt (as % of GDP, ) Gross External Debt (as % of GDP) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Short-term External Debt (as % of Gross External Debt, rhs) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending (lhs) Short-term External Debt (as % of Tot. Ext. Debt, rhs) Gross External Debt (as % of GDP) Gross External Debt (as % of GDP) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending (lhs) Short-term External Debt (as % of Total Debt, rhs) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending (lhs) Short-term External Debt (as % of Tot. Ext. Debt, rhs) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Total External Debt (lhs) Short-term External Debt (As % of Tot. Ext. Debt, rhs) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

27 Real estate prices Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q: Q: Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Albeit still well below their pre-crisis peak, real estate prices continued on an upward trend in and in Q: Real Estate Price Index (Q:=) House Price Index, Countrywide Source: Central Bank of Asking Price, Apartments, Countrywide Source: Imobilare.ro Housing Price Index, Countrywide Source: National Statistical Institute EUR Terms TRY Nominal Terms TRY Adj. for inflation EUR Terms RON Nominal Terms RON adj. for inflation BGN, EUR Nominal Terms BGN, adj. for inflation New Construction Dwellings, Countrywide Source: Statistical Office Real Estate Prices (EUR, Q:) Real Estate Price Index (Q:=) House Price Index Source: Central Bank of EUR Terms RSD Nominal Terms RSD, adj. for inflation Source: numbeo.com, EUR/m to buy apartment in city centre MKD, EUR Nominal Terms MKD, EUR, adj. for inflation Residential Property Price Index (Q:=) N.A. Apartments, Tirana Source: Bank of House Price Index, Countrywide Source: Central Bank of EUR terms ALL Nominal Terms ALL, adj. for inflation EUR Nominal Terms EUR, Adj. for Inflation NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

28 Inflation (%) Headline inflation accelerated in H: in all the countries under review, mainly reflecting higher imported inflation and unfavourable volatile food prices (due, inter alia, to adverse weather conditions). A sharp depreciation of the EGP and a large adjustment in administrative prices is the main reason behind skyrocketing inflation in Headline & Core Inflation (y-o-y % change) Headline Inflation Core-C Inflation (excl. energy, food, beverages, tobacco and gold) Food Inflation Headline Inflation Adjusted Core II Inflation Food Inflation - Headline Inflation Core Inflation (excl. volatile food & energy) Food Inflation Headline Inflation (y-o-y % change, F, eop) - - Headline & Core Inflation (y-o-y % change) - - Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation - - H Headline & Core Inflation (y-o-y% change) Headline & Core Inflation (y-o-y % change) Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

29 CPI-based nominal effective exchange rate The EGP, MKD, BGN and ALL have appreciated in nominal terms over the past years CPI-based NEER NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) CPI-based NEER (-, % change) CPI-based NEER - - NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) CPI-based NEER CPI-based NEER NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

30 Policy rate Among the countries under review, only and have hiked their policy rates since the beginning of the year to contain inflationary pressures Policy Rate (%) (-w CBRT Repo Rate) O/N Borrowing Rate CBRT -week Repo Rate Effective Funding Rate (eop) O/N Lending Rate Overnight Interbank Rate Late Liquidity Window Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Nominal Money Market Rate Real Money Market Rate Real Policy Rate (July, eop) Policy Rate (%) (-D CB Rate) - - Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Policy Rate (ECB Main Refinancing Rate, %) Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit Rate, %) Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

31 Reserve requirement ratios Since the beginning of the year, and proceeded with a cut in RRR on FX liabilities (by. pps and. pps, respectively, to.% and.%) Reserve Requirement Ratios (Average, %) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liab FC Liab Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Oct. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Oct. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Oct. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

32 Fiscal balance (-month rolling, % of GDP) A loose fiscal stance in,, and should boost economic activity and employment, while a tight fiscal stance in, and should move public finances towards a strong footing In, the fiscal easing is unwelcome, in view of strong overheating pressures : : F : : F* *: Higher public investment together with the ongoing easing in incomes policy (including hikes in wages of up to % in some sectors and a % rise in pensions) should boost budget spending during the remainder of the year : : F* *: Public investment is expected to accelerate during the remainder of the year, on the back, inter alia, of better absorption of EU funds. At the same time, current spending would pick-up, in line with higher public consumption (mainly spending related to defense) and a looser incomes policy (wages in the education sector went up by % in September and the minimum pension will rise by an additional % in October) : : F : : F* *: a large fiscal loosening is expected in -M:, in view of the new Government s pre-election pledges a a : : F* a: Including the clearance of arrears, worth.% of GDP in FY: and.% of GDP in * assuming a correction of the spending slippage after the June th parliamentary elections : : F* *: The fiscal performance is expected to deteriorate by the end of the year, ahead of the February presidential elections :/ :/ F F *: Fiscal year ending on June th. NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

33 Fiscal performance * Higher primary expenditure is behind the widening of the fiscal deficit in Higher tax revenue is driving the fiscal deficit down in Tax Revenue, Primary Expenditure & Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum) n.a Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance Excl. Act. Guarantees (% of GDP, right scale) Activated Guarantees (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP, July ) Tax Revenue, Primary Expenditure & Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum) *May Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue, Primary Expenditure & Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue, Primary Expenditure & Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum) Fiscal Balance (excl. clearance of arrears, % of GDP, right scale) Clearance of Arrears (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (excl. arrears, y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

34 Public debt (% of GDP) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * * * Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The public debt-to-gdp ratio is on a downward trend in all the countries under review, with the exception of and Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) Gross Public Debt (incl. guaranteed debt) Fiscal Reserve Account Gross Public Debt (% of GDP, June ) Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) * Mar. Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

35 Exchange rates The TRY and the EGP have depreciated significantly against the EUR since the beginning of the year Exchange Rates,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, EUR/TRY USD/TRY EUR/RON USD/RON EUR/BGN USD/BGN EUR/RSD USD/RSD Currencies against the EUR (Sep. th ) ALL BGN* EGP MKD* RON TRY Depreciation Appreciation YTD change (%) Y-o-Y change (%) *: MKD and BGN are pegged to the EUR Exchange Rates,,,,,,,,,,,,,, EUR/MKD Exchange Rates Exchange Rates USD/MKD EUR/ALL USD/ALL EUR/USD USD/EGP EUR/EGP NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

36 Money market rates (%) Money market rates have increased significantly in and since the beginning of the year,,,,,,,, -M TRIBOR (%) -M TRIBOR Effective Funding Rate (-W Repo Rate before Oct. ) Overnight Interbank Rate -M BELIBOR -Week Repo Rate,,,,,,,, -M ROBOR -Week Repo Rate Money Market Rates (-month, %) * - Sep. th Dec. th * Overnight Interbank Rate -M EURIBOR (%) M SKIBOR (%) -M SKIBOR -D CB Rate -M CAIBOR (%) - -M TRIBOR -Week Repo Rate -M EURIBOR (Not effective since Sep. ) ECB Main Refinancing Rate -M CAIBOR (O/N Interbank Rate since Jan. ) Overnight Deposit Rate NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

37 Government debt yields (%) Government debt yields have increased in, and since the start of the year -Y Bond Yield (%) Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond/ -Y TRIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) * -week combounded since April,,,,,,,,,, -M TB Yield (bps, lhs) -M TB / -M BELIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) ** * ** -Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond / M-ROBOR Spread (bps, rhs) Government Debt Yields (-Year, %) - Sep. th Dec. th * -Year (%) ** Primary market yields -Y Bond Yield (%) -Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond / M SOFIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) -Y Bond Yield (%) -Y Bond Yield (%) Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond/ -Y SKIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) - - -Y Bond Yield (bps, lhs) -Y Bond / -M TRIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) -Y Bond Yield (%) -Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond/ -Y CAIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

38 Sovereign spreads (bps) Sovereign spreads have declined in all the countries under review since the beginning of the year v EUR. EUR. EUR... Sovereign Spreads (bps) Eurobond Spread - MK EUR. USD..... EUR. * * Sep. th Dec. th *Spread over US Treasuries.... Eurobond Spread - CY EUR. EUR..... EUR. Eurobond Spread - EG USD. USD. NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

39 Stock market All stock markets in the countries under review have posted a positive performance since the start of the year Stock Exchange (.XU, ').XU, ' Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP,,,,,,,,,,,.BET-BK, ' Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP.SOFIX, ',,,,,,,,,,,,, N.A. Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP.BELEX, ',,,,,,, (SOFIX),,,,,,,, (CSE GI) (HERMES) F.Y.R.O.M (MBI-) (BET-BK) (BELEX ) (ISE-) Stock Exchange (.CYMNPRL, ').CYMNPRL, ' Equity Indices (Sep. th ) YTD change (%) Y-o-Y change (%) Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, MBI, ' Stock Exchange (MBI, ') Stock Exchange (.HRMS, ') Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP.HRMS, ' Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP,,,,,,,,,, NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

40 Total loans (m-o-m % change, -month moving average) * Lending activity has been buoyant in since the beginning of the year, underpinned by the relaxation of restrictive measures and the Government s Credit Guarantee Fund (targeting SMEs) - - Total Loans (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) - - Total Loans (m-o-m % change, -m m.a.) Total Loans (m-o-m % change, -m m.a.) Non- Non- All banks, excl. CCB from November (BNB definition) All banks, excl. CCB from beginning of time series (NBG estimates) Total Loans (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) Total Loans (m-o-m% change, -m m.a., July ) Total Loans (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) Non- * May Total Loans (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) - - Total Loans (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) Total Loans (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) - - Non- Non- NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

41 * Total loans (y-o-y % change) and continue to post double-digit lending growth - Total Loans (y-o-y % change) - - Total Loans (y-o-y % change) Total Loans (y-o-y % change) - - Non- Non- All banks, excl. CCB from November (BNB definition) All banks, excl. CCB from beginning of time series (NBG estimates) - - Total Loans (y-o-y % change) Total Loans (y-o-y % change, July ) - Total Loans (y-o-y % change) Non- * May - Total Loans (y-o-y % change) Total Loans (y-o-y % change) Total Loans (y-o-y % change) - Non- Non- NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

42 Retail loans (y-o-y % change) * The retail segment remains strong in,,, and - Retail Loans (y-o-y % change) - - Retail Loans (y-o-y % change) Non- - - Retail Loans (y-o-y % change) All banks, excl. CCB from November (BNB definition) All banks, excl. CCB from beginning of time series (NBG estimates) - Retail Loans (y-o-y % change) Retail Loans (y-o-y % change, July ) Retail Loans (y-o-y % change) Non- * May Retail Loans (y-o-y % change) - - Retail Loans (y-o-y % change) Retail Loans (y-o-y % change) - Non- Non- NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

43 Corporate loans (y-o-y % change) * Corporate lending remains the main driver of lending activity in and - Corporate Loans (y-o-y % change) - Corporate Loans (y-o-y % change) Corporate Loans (y-o-y % change) - - Non- Non- All banks, excl. CCB from November (BNB definition) All banks, excl. CCB from beginning of time series (NBG estimates) - - Corporate Loans (y-o-y % change) Corporate Loans (y-o-y % change, July ) Corporate Loans (y-o-y % change) - - Non- * May Corporate Loans (y-o-y % change) - - Corporate Loans (y-o-y % change) Corporate Loans (y-o-y % change) - Non- Non- NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

44 Total deposits (m-o-m % change, -month moving average) * Deposit growth gathers momentum in most of the economies under review Total Deposits (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) Total Deposits (m-o-m % change, -m m.a.) Total Deposits (m-o-m % change, -m m.a.) Non- - - Non- All banks, excl. all CCB's in Nov.' & incl. CCBs' guarant. deposits in Dec.' (BNB def.) All banks, excl. CCBs' non-guarant. deposits from beg. of time series (NBG est.) Total Deposits (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) Total Deposits (m-o-m% change, -m m.a., July ) Total Deposits (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) - - Non- * May Total Deposits (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) Total Deposits (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) Total Deposits (m-o-m % change, -m m.-a.) - Non- Non- NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q: