Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Analysis Quarterly Chartbook Q3:2018

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1 Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Analysis Quarterly Chartbook Q: NBG - Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Analysis Head: Michael Loufir : mloufir@nbg.gr Analysts: Konstantinos Romanos-Louizos : romanos.louizos.k@nbg.gr Louiza Troupi : troupi.louiza@nbg.gr Athanasios Lampousis : lampousis.athanasios@nbg.gr Balance of Payments The information in this document, being distributed by National Bank of Greece S.A., is based upon data and sources of information believed to be correct and reliable but the accuracy of which cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, implied or expressed, is made by any member of National Bank of Greece S.A. as to its accuracy adequacy, timeliness or completeness.

2 NBG-Emerging Markets Analysis Quarterly Chartbook General information Date of next elections Official financial support Foreign currency debt rating Global competitiveness index Ease of doing business index Real sector Industrial production Real GDP growth Output gap Employment Unemployment Wages (nominal and real) Wages (nominal, EUR) and Tax rates Balance of payments External trade Real effective exchange rate Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital flows FX reserves Short-term external debt / FX reserves Balance of payments External financing External debt Real estate prices Inflation Nominal effective exchange rate NBG - Economic Analysis Division Q: Policy rate Reserve requirement ratios Fiscal balance Public debt Financial Markets Exchange rates Money market rates Government debt rates Sovereign spreads Stock market Banking sector Total loans (m-o-m % change) Total loans (y-o-y % change) Retail loans (y-o-y % change) Corporate loans (y-o-y % change) Total deposits (m-o-m % change) Total deposits (y-o-y % change) Retail deposits (y-o-y % change) Corporate deposits (y-o-y % change) Loans/GDP (%) FX loans/total loans (%) Deposits/GDP (%) FX deposits/total deposits (%) Loans/deposits (%) ROAE (%) CAD (%) NPL ratio (%) Foreign ownership

3 General information Republic of Republic of Population (, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Recep Tayyip ERDOGAN Head of Government: : Recep Tayyip ERDOGAN Minister of Finance: Berat ALBAYRAK Central Bank Governor: Murat CETINKAYA Population (, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Semi Presidential Republic Chief of state: Klaus Werner IOHANNIS Head of Government: Vasilica-Viorica DANCILA Minister of Finance: Eugen-Orlando TEODOROVICI Central Bank Governor: Mugur ISARESCU Population (, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Rumen RADEV Head of Government: Boyko BORISOV Minister of Finance: Vladislav GORANOV Central Bank Governor: Dimitar RADEV Republic of Population (, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Aleksandar VUCIC Head of Government: Ana BRNABIC Minister of Finance: Sinisa MALI Central Bank Governor: Jorgovanka TABAKOVIC Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Population (, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Gjorge IVANOV Head of Government: Zoran ZAEV Minister of Finance: Dragan TEVDOVSKI Central Bank Governor: Anita ANGELOVSKA-BEZOSKA Republic of Population (, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Parliamentary Republic Chief of state: Ilir META Head of Government: Edi RAMA Minister of Finance: Arben AHMETAJ Central Bank Governor: Gent SEJKO Republic of Arab Republic of Population (, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Presidential Republic without PM Chief of state: Nicos ANASTASIADES Head of Government: Nicos ANASTASIADES Minister of Finance: Harris GEORGIADES Central Bank Governor: Chrystalla GEORGHADJI Population (, mn):. GDP (, EUR, bn):. GDP per Capita (, EUR):, Government type: Semi Presidential Republic Chief of state: Abdel Fattah Said AL-SISI Head of Government: Sherif Ismail MOHAMED Minister of Finance: Amr EL-GARHY Central Bank Governor: Tarek AMER NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

4 Date of next elections In, fiscal prudence ahead of the March local elections is key to preserving economic and financial stability Date of Next Elections Legislative June December March April May June May Oct.- Dec. Presidential June November November April April July February March Local March June October April March June December Unknown * *: Last local elections were held in April NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

5 Official financial support In mid-november, the IMF and ian authorities are expected to reach a staff-level agreement (SLA) on the fourth review of s economic reform programme, which is supported by the IMF s USD bn arrangement. The IMF Executive Board s approval of this review, likely in December, would provide access to c. USD bn, bringing total disbursements under the programme to c.usd bn IMF & EU Financial Support (EUR bn) Period * - * * - * - ** Programme Drawn so far Repaid IMF *** EU IMF ** EU IMF since since early in EU since Next Repayments IMF Starting in EU EUR.bn in Starting in Starting in Starting in * Precautionary ** Non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument *** bn USD NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

6 Foreign currency credit rating / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Since the beginning of the year: i) credit rating was upgraded by notch by Fitch to BB+, Moody s to Ba and S&P to BBB- (investment grade); ii) s credit rating was raised by notch by S&P to B; and iii) s credit rating was downgraded by notches by Moody s to Ba and S&P to B+ and by notch by Fitch to BB A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B B B Caa Caa Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / April S&P/Fitch Investment Grades Non-Investment Grades BB A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating June / February Moody's S&P/Fitch,, BBB+ Investment Grades, Non-Investment Grades A A- BBB,, BB+, BB,, B+, Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / February S&P/Fitch A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B Investment Grades Non-Investment Grades, A, A-, BBB+ BBB,, BB+, BB,, B+, Moodys S&P Fitch Moody's S&P Fitch Moody's S&P Fitch A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B B B Caa Caa Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / February S&P/Fitch A, A-, Investment Grades BBB+, BBB, BBB-, BB+, BB, BB-, B+ Non-Investment Grades, B, B-, CCC+, CCC, Moody's S&P Fitch Investment Grades Non-Investment Grades Long-Term Foreign Debt Currency Ratings, September A+ A A- BBB+ S&P Moody's Fitch BBB BBB-,, BB+ BB,, BB-, B+, B B- CCC+ A Ba Ba Ba B B B Baa Baa Baa Caa Caa Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / April S&P/Fitch A,, Investment Grades A- BBB+, BBB, BBB-, BB+, BB, BB-, B+, B Non-Investment Grades, B-, CCC+, CCC, S&P Fitch Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating June / February Moody's S&P/Fitch Aa A Investment Grades A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B B Non-Investment Grades B Caa Caa Caa CCC- BBB- BB- BBB- BB- Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / February S&P/Fitch, A A A, Investment Grades A- Baa BBB+, Baa BBB, Baa BBB-, Ba BB+, Ba BB, Ba BB-, B B+ Non-Investment Grades, B B, B B-, Caa CCC+, Caa CCC,,,, AA-, A+, A, A- BBB+, BBB, BBB-, BB+, BB BB-, B+, B, B-, CCC+, CCC,, A A Baa Baa Baa Ba Ba Ba B B B Caa Caa Caa Foreign Currency LT Debt Rating Moody's June / April S&P/Fitch Investment Grades Non-Investment Grades A, A-,,,,,,,,,,,, BBB+ BBB BB+ BB BBB- BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC S&P Moody's Moodys S&P Fitch Moodys S&P Fitch NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

7 Global competitiveness index -* (World Economic Forum) According to the latest WEF s GCI, is the most competitive among the countries under review Global Competitiveness Index - Global Competitiveness Index - Global Competitiveness Index - Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Technological readiness Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Higher education and training Goods market efficiency th out of Technological readiness Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Higher education and training Goods market efficiency nd out of Technological readiness Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Higher education and training Goods market efficiency th out of Global Competitiveness Index - Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Global Competitiveness Rankings* (-) Not Ranked due to Lack of Data Technological readiness Higher education and training Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Goods market efficiency th out of Less favourable standing More favourable standing * Rankings are based on average scores out of countries Global Competitiveness Index - Global Competitiveness Index - Global Competitiveness Index - Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Business sophistication Market size Innovation Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education Technological readiness Higher education and training Technological readiness Higher education and training Technological readiness Higher education and training Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Goods market efficiency th out of Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Goods market efficiency rd out of Financial market development Europe & North America Labour market efficiency Goods market efficiency th out of NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

8 Ease of doing business index * (World Bank) The latest WB s EDBI shows has the most favourable standing among the countries under review Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Paying Taxes Protecting Minority Investors Getting Credit th out of Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Ease of Doing Business Rankings* () Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Paying Taxes Getting Credit Paying Taxes Getting Credit Protecting Minority Investors rd out of Less favourable standing More favourable standing * Rankings are based on average scores out of countries Protecting Minority Investors th out of Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Enforcing Contracts Trading Across Borders Resolving Insolvency Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Paying Taxes Getting Credit Paying Taxes Getting Credit Paying Taxes Getting Credit Protecting Minority Investors th out of Protecting Minority Investors rd out of Protecting Minority Investors th out of NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

9 Industrial production (-month rolling, y-o-y % change) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / The contribution of industrial output to gross value added growth has improved markedly since July in, and Industrial Production (y-o-y % change) Industrial Output (% of GDP, ) Industrial Production (y-o-y % change) N.A Industrial Production (y-o-y % change) Industrial Production (y-o-y % change) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

10 Real GDP growth, potential Real GDP growth, output gap and per capita (nominal) GDP All economies under review are set to post solid growth this year (higher than.%) This year s growth is expected to surpass its potential in all economies under review, with the exception of and Large positive output gaps in and point to an overheating of the economy and increasing inflationary pressures Real GDP Growth (%) Potential Real GDP Growth (%) F F Long-Term, Output Gap (% of Potential Output), Per Capita (Nominal) GDP (),,,,,,,, -, -,,,,, -, -, F ' EUR % EU- average NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

11 Real GDP (-quarter rolling, y-o-y % change) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: GDP growth is expected to range between.% () and.% () this year in the economies under review Forecast Forecast Forecast Real GDP Growth (F, %) Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

12 Output gap (-quarter rolling) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The output gap should remain negative in and this year Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q==) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs),,,,,,, -, -, -, Output Gap (% of Potential Output, F),,,,,,, -, -, -, Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) Potential Output (rhs, Q:=) Actual/Projected Output (rhs, Q:=) Output Gap (%, lhs) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

13 Employment growth (y-o-y % change) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Employment in most countries under review is supported by buoyant economic activity this year - - Employment (y-o-y % change) n.a Total Non-farm,,, -, -, -, -,,,, -, -, -, -, - Employment (y-o-y % change) Employment (y-o-y % change) Employment (y-o-y % change) Employment (y-o-y % change) - - NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

14 Unemployment rate (%) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The unemployment rate should continue on its downward trend this year in all countries under review, with the exception of Unemployment Rate (%) Total Non-farm Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

15 Nominal and real wages (y-o-y % change) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: / / / / / / / / / / / / / / * ** / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Real wages set to decelerate this year in most of the countries under review, due to rising inflation - Gross Wages in Manufacturing (y-o-y % change) As of January, gross wages were adjusted upwards to reflect the shift of the social security contributions burden solely to employees - - Nominal Real Nominal Real Nominal Real Real Gross Wages (y-o-y % change) n.a Average Net Wages (y-o-y % change) Nominal Real *: Net **:Public sector Nominal Real Gross Wages (y-o-y % change) Gross Wages (y-o-y % change) - Public sector wages Nominal Real Nominal Real Nominal Real NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

16 Nominal wages in EUR and tax rates * ** and are the most competitive in terms of labour costs and have the most favourable personal and corporate income tax rates Gross Wages (Monthly Average, EUR, ) Tax Rates (%) Personal Income Corporate Income n.a *: Net **: Greece. -.. NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

17 External trade (-month rolling, y-o-y % change) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Buoyant exports in most of the economies under review should sustain economic activity this year External Trade (USD terms, y-o-y % change) Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports & Imports (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP, June ) External Trade (EUR terms, y-o-y % change) Exports Imports Exports Imports *: March Exports Imports - - Exports Imports Exports Exports excl. ships (available from Q:) Imports Imports excl. ships (available from Q:) External Trade (USD terms, y-o-y % change) Exports Imports NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

18 CPI-based real effective exchange rate / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Competitiveness in all the countries under review has improved over the past years, excluding and CPI-based REER REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) M Average REER (December -June, % change) CPI-based REER REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) CPI-based REER CPI-based REER REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) REER (level, =, left scale) REER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

19 Current account balance (-month rolling, % of GDP) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The current account deficit is set to remain at sustainable levels this year in most of the economies under review, on the back of still strong external demand. remains by far the best performer among the economies under review Current Account Balance (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP, June ) Current Account Balance (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) *: March Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Current Account Balance (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excl. Energy) Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (excluding Energy) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

20 Net foreign direct investments (-month rolling, % of GDP) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Net FDI remains close to historically low levels in most of the countries under review. In, net FDI continues to fluctuate around % of GDP for a th consecutive year, mainly on the back of large investments in energy projects FDI (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) FDI (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP, June ) FDI (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) *: March FDI (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) FDI (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) - NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

21 Other net capital flows, excluding IMF funding and net errors and omissions (-month rolling, % of GDP) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Other net capital inflows to slow in most of the countries under review this year, due to tighter global liquidity conditions Other Investment (-M Rolling Sum, as % of GDP) Other Investment (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP, June ) Other Investment (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP) - - *: March Other Investment (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) Other Investment (-Q Rolling Sum, % of GDP) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

22 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Foreign exchange reserves In all countries under review, import coverage largely surpasses the critical level of months FX Reserves FX Reserves (in USD bn, left scale) Months of import of GNFS (right scale) IMF/EU Disbursements (EUR bn, left scale) FX Reserves (excl. IMF and EU, EUR bn, left scale) Months of Imports of GNFS (right scale) FX Reserves (EUR bn., left scale) Months of Imports of GNFS (right scale) FX Reserves (Months of Imports of GNFS, June ) Critical Level,,,,, FX Reserves,,,,,,, n.a.,, IMF Disbursements (EUR bn, left scale) FX Reserves (EUR bn, excl. IMF, left scale) Months of imports of GNFS (right scale) IMF Disbursements (EUR bn., left scale) FX Reserves (excl. IMF, EUR bn, left scale) Months of Import of GNFS (right scale),, FX Reserves,,,,,,,,,, N.A.,, IMF Disbursements (EUR bn, left scale) FX Reserves (EUR bn, excl. IMF, left scale) Months of imports of GNFS (right scale) IMF Disbursements (USD bn, left scale) FX Reserves (USD bn, left scale) Months of Import of GNFS (right scale) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

23 Short-term external debt-to-foreign exchange reserves ratio (%) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * * Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Short-term external debt is comfortably covered by FX reserves in all countries under review, with the exception of Short-Term External Debt / FX Reserves (%) Short-Term External Debt Short-Term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-Term External Debt Short-Term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-Term External Debt excluding Interbank Lending Short-Term External Debt Short-Term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-Term External Debt / FX Reserves (%, Q:) Short-term External Debt / FX Reserves (%) n.a. Short-Term External Debt *: Q: Short-term External Debt Short-term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-Term External Debt / FX Reserves (%) N.A. Short-Term External Debt Short-Term External Debt excluding Trade Credits Short-term External Debt Short-term External Debt excluding Trade Credits NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

24 Balance of payments (-month rolling, % of GDP) The current account deficit is expected to widen further this year in and. More than half of it should be covered through non-debt generating FDI in, while the bulk of it will rely on volatile portfolio inflows in Dec. Dec. Jul. Jul. Dec. F Current account balance Net FDI..... Other net capital inflows *..... Dec. Dec. Jun. Jun. Dec. F Current account balance Net FDI..... Other net capital inflows *..... Dec. Dec. Jun. Jun. Dec. F Current account balance..... Net FDI..... Other net capital inflows * Dec. Dec. Jun. Jun. Dec. F Current account balance Net FDI..... Other net capital inflows * Dec. Dec. Jun. Jun. Dec. F Current account balance Net FDI..... Other net capital inflows * Dec. Dec. Jun. Jun. Dec. F Current account balance Net FDI Other net capital inflows * Dec. Dec. Mar. Mar. Dec. F Current account balance Net FDI..... Other net capital inflows * # June June Mar. Mar. June E Current account balance Net FDI..... Other net capital inflows *..... *: excluding IMF and ESM funding and net errors and omissions, #: Fiscal year ending on June th NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

25 External financing Among the countries under review, only is expected to resort to FX reserves this year to fill the financing gap (USD bn) F F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs n.a. n.a. n.a. Other... Change in FX Res.... (EUR bn) F F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs Other... Change in FX Res (EUR bn) F F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs n.a. n.a. n.a. Other... Change in FX Res (EUR bn) F F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs... Other... Change in FX Res (EUR bn) F F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs n.a. n.a. n.a. Other... Change in FX Res (EUR bn) F F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs... Other -... Change in FX Res (EUR bn) F F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs... Other... Change in FX Res.... (USD bn) / /F /F Financing Needs... Cur. Acct Deficit... Amort. + Other... Financing Sources... FDI... IMF... Other IFIs... Other... Change in FX Res.... NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

26 External debt (% of GDP) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * * * Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q; Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The external debt-to-gdp ratio does not exceed % in the countries under review, with the exception of Gross External Debt (as % of GDP) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Short-Term External Debt (as % of Tot. Ext. Debt, rhs) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending (lhs) Short-Term Debt (as % of Gross External Debt, rhs) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending Short-Term Debt (as % of Gross External Debt, rhs) External Debt (as % of GDP, Q:) Gross External Debt (as % of GDP) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Short-term External Debt (as % of Gross External Debt, rhs) *: Q: Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending (lhs) Short-term External Debt (as % of Tot. Ext. Debt, rhs) Gross External Debt (as % of GDP) Gross External Debt (as % of GDP) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending (lhs) Short-term External Debt (as % of Total Debt, rhs) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Intercompany Lending (lhs) Short-term External Debt (as % of Tot. Ext. Debt, rhs) Public Sector (lhs) Banking Sector (lhs) Non-Financial Private Sector (lhs) Total External Debt (lhs) Short-term External Debt (As % of Tot. Ext. Debt, rhs) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

27 Real estate prices Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q: Q: Q: Q: Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Real estate prices continued on an upward trend in and in H:, but remain well below their pre-crisis peak Real Estate Price Index (Q:=) House Price Index, Countrywide Source: Central Bank of Asking Price, Apartments, Countrywide Source: Imobilare.ro Housing Price Index, Countrywide Source: National Statistical Institute EUR Terms TRY Nominal Terms TRY Adj. for inflation EUR Terms RON Nominal Terms RON adj. for inflation BGN, EUR Nominal Terms BGN, adj. for inflation New Construction Dwellings, Countrywide Source: Statistical Office Real Estate Prices (EUR, Q:) Real Estate Price Index (Q:=) House Price Index Source: Central Bank of EUR Terms RSD Nominal Terms RSD, adj. for inflation Source: numbeo.com, EUR/m to buy apartment in city centre MKD, EUR Nominal Terms MKD, EUR, adj. for inflation Residential Property Price Index (Q:=) N.A. Apartments, Tirana Source: Bank of House Price Index, Countrywide Source: Central Bank of EUR terms ALL Nominal Terms ALL, adj. for inflation EUR Nominal Terms EUR, Adj. for Inflation NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

28 Inflation (%) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / In, headline inflation is set to reach a -year high this year Headline & Core Inflation (y-o-y % change) Headline Inflation Core-C Inflation (excl. energy, food, beverages, tobacco and gold) Food Inflation Headline Inflation Adjusted Core II Inflation Food Inflation - Headline Inflation Core Inflation (excl. volatile food & energy) Food Inflation Headline Inflation (y-o-y % change, F, eop) - - Headline & Core Inflation (y-o-y % change) - - Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation - - H Headline & Core Inflation (y-o-y% change) Headline & Core Inflation (y-o-y % change) Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation Headline Inflation Core Inflation Food Inflation NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

29 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / CPI-based nominal effective exchange rate The EGP and TRY have depreciated significantly in nominal terms over the past years CPI-based NEER NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) M Average NEER (December - June, % change) CPI-based NEER - - NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) CPI-based NEER CPI-based NEER NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NEER (level, =, left scale) NEER (y-o-y % change, right scale) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

30 Policy rate / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Since the beginning of the year, only and have hiked their policy rates to contain inflationary pressures Policy Rate (%) (-w CBRT Repo Rate) O/N Borrowing Rate CBRT -week Repo Rate Effective Funding Rate (eop) O/N Lending Rate Overnight Interbank Rate Late Liquidity Window Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Base Interest Rate Real Base Interest Rate Real Policy Rate (June, eop) Policy Rate (%) (-D CB Rate) - - Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Policy Rate (ECB Main Refinancing Rate, %) Policy Rate (Overnight Deposit Rate, %) Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate Nominal Policy Rate Real Policy Rate NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

31 Reserve requirement ratios The Bank of proceeded with a cut in RRR for LC liabilities (by. pps to.%) and a hike in RRR for FX liabilities (by. pps to.%) in June, in an effort to reduce the euroisation of the economy The Central Bank of cut RRR for: i) LC liabilities by pps; and ii) non-core FX liabilities with maturities up to years by bps in mid-august, in a bid to reverse a disorderly depreciation of the domestic currency Reserve Requirement Ratios (Average, %) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liab FC Liab Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities...-. FC Liabilities...-. Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities... Reserve Requirement Ratios (%) Dec. Dec. Sep. LC Liabilities... FC Liabilities NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

32 Fiscal balance (-month rolling, % of GDP) A loose fiscal stance in, and this year should boost economic activity and employment In, the fiscal easing is unwelcome, in view of strong overheating pressures Dec. Dec. Jul. Jul. Dec. F Dec. Dec. Jul. Jul. Dec. F Dec. Dec. Jul. Jul. Dec. F..... Dec. Dec. Jun. Jun. Dec. F Dec. Dec. Jul. Jul. Dec. F Dec. Dec. Jul. Jul. Dec. F Dec. Dec. Jul. Jul. Dec. F..... June June Apr. Apr. June E *: Fiscal year ending on June th. NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

33 Fiscal performance / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / * / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / A tight fiscal stance in, and this year should help bring down the public debt-to-gdp ratio Tax Revenue, Primary Expenditure & Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum) n.a Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance Excl. Act. Guarantees (% of GDP, right scale) Activated Guarantees (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum, % of GDP, June ) Tax Revenue, Primary Expenditure & Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum) *: April Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue, Primary Expenditure & Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue, Primary Expenditure & Fiscal Balance (-M Rolling Sum) Fiscal Balance (excl. clearance of arrears, % of GDP, right scale) Clearance of Arrears (% of GDP, right scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Primary Expenditure (excl. arrears, y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP, right scale) Primary Expenditure (y-o-y % change, left scale) Tax Revenue (y-o-y % change, left scale) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

34 Public debt (% of GDP) Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: * * Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: Q: The public debt-to-gdp ratio is still at critical levels in and, despite a tight fiscal stance Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) Gross Public Debt (incl. guaranteed debt) Fiscal Reserve Account Gross Public Debt (% of GDP, June ) Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) * March Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

35 Exchange rates / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / The TRY has depreciated significantly against the EUR since the beginning of the year Exchange Rates,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, EUR/TRY USD/TRY EUR/RON USD/RON EUR/BGN USD/BGN EUR/RSD USD/RSD Currencies against the EUR (Sep. th ) RSD ALL BGN* EGP MKD* RON TRY Depreciation Appreciation YTD change (%) Y-o-Y change (%) *: MKD and BGN are pegged to the EUR Exchange Rates,,,,,,,,,,,,,, EUR/MKD Exchange Rates Exchange Rates USD/MKD EUR/ALL EUR/ALL EUR/USD USD/EGP EUR/EGP NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

36 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Money market rates (%) Money market rates have increased significantly in since the beginning of the year, reflecting tighter global and domestic liquidity conditions -M TRIBOR (%) - - -M TRIBOR Effective Funding Rate (-W Repo Rate before Oct. ) Overnight Interbank Rate -M ROBOR -Week Repo Rate Base Interest Rate -M BELIBOR -Week Repo Rate * ** Money Market Rates (-month, %) - Sep. th Dec. th * Overnight Interbank Rate ** Base Interest Rate -M SKIBOR (%) -M SKIBOR -D CB Rate,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, - -M EURIBOR (%) - -M CAIBOR (%) -M TRIBOR -Week Repo Rate -M EURIBOR (Not effective since Sep. ) ECB Main Refinancing Rate -M CAIBOR (O/N Interbank Rate since Jan. ) Overnight Deposit Rate NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

37 Government debt yields (%) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Government debt yields have also increased in, and since the start of the year -Y Bond Yield (%) ,,,,,,,,,, -Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond/ -Y TRIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) -Y TB Yield (bps, lhs) -Y TB / -M BELIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) - - ** * ** -Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond / M-ROBOR Spread (bps, rhs) Government Debt Yields (-Year, %) Sep. th Dec. th * -Year (%) ** Primary market yields -Y Bond Yield (%) -Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond / Base Interest Rate Spread (bps, rhs) -Y Bond Yield (%) -Y Bond Yield (%) Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond/ -Y SKIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) Y Bond Yield (bps, lhs) -Y Bond / -M TRIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) -Y Bond Yield (%) -Y Bond Yield (lhs) -Y Bond/ -Y CAIBOR Spread (bps, rhs) NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

38 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Sovereign spreads (bps) Sovereign spreads have increased in all the countries under review since the beginning of the year with the exception of, and v EUR. EUR. EUR... Sovereign Spreads (bps) Eurobond Spread - MK EUR. USD..... EUR. * * Sep. th Dec. th *Spread over US Treasuries.... Eurobond Spread - CY EUR. EUR..... EUR. Eurobond Spread - EG USD. USD. NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q:

39 Stock market / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Among the stock markets under review, only those of and have posted gains since the start of the year Stock Exchange (.XU, ').XU, ' Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,.BET-BK, ' Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP.SOFIX, ',,,,,,,, (SOFIX) Equity Indices (Sep. th ) Stock Exchange (MBI, '),,,, Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP,,,, (CSE GI) (HERMES) F.Y.R.O.M (MBI-) (BET-BK) Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP,,.BELEX, ',, N.A. (BELEX ),,,,,,,, (ISE-) - YTD change (%) Y-o-Y change (%) Stock Exchange (.CYMNPRL, ').CYMNPRL, ' Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, MBI, ' Stock Exchange (.HRMS, ') Total Market Cap. (//):.% of GDP.HRMS, ',,,,,,,,, NBG Economic Analysis Division Emerging Markets Research Quarterly Chartbook / Q: