2013 Regional Economic Forecast. Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. Chief Economist

Transcription

1 2013 Regional Economic Forecast Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. Chief Economist

2 The Regional Economy: The Long Slumber* Snort gurgle... hack...zzzzzzz * 2012 is going to look a lot like 2011.

3 Population Growth, % 3.3% 3.0% Annual Growth 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% % 1.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% to 0.8% 0.6% 1% 0.4% Est. 0.0% -0.3% Worst Spokane+Kootenai Case -0.5% 6-Border Central Counties Range Whitman Benton+Franklin Best Case Source: U.S. Census, OFM, and author s calculations.

4 Unemployment Rates, % 12% 12.2% 11.3% Unemployment Rate 10% 8% 6% 4% 9.6% 9.0% 6.6% 6.7% 7.9% 8.8% 2011 Est % 0% Spokane+Kootenai, ID- WA Whitman, WA 6-Border Benton+Franklin, WA Source: BLS and author s calculations.

5 Initial Unemployment Claims, ,000 80,000 79,091 70,000 67,095 Annual Growth Initial Claims 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 27,646 57,795 23,501 24,747 45,419 22,168 10, Est Spokane+Kootenai, WA-ID Benton+Franklin, WA Source: WA ESD, ID DOL, and author s calculations.

6 Non-Farm Employment Growth, % 2.0% 1.5% 2.2% 1.9% Annual Growth 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 0.4% % -0.3% Spokane+Kootenai WA-ID Nez Perce+Asotin ID-WA Benton+Franklin, WA 0% 0.8% to 1.2% 2% 2011 Est % -1.9% Worst Case Central Range Best Case -2.5% Source: BLS and author s calculations.

7 Monthly Leading Indicator, Spokane-Kootenai Regional Leading Index, March 2004 = Source: WA ESD, Economagic.com, Census, and author s calculations.

8 Spokane Taxable Sales Growth, Annual Growth 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% City -2% -4% -6% ROC -8% Est % -1% -1% -2% -6% -5% % 4% 2% 0% 1% to 2% 3% 1% 2% to 3% 4% -10% -9% Spokane City Worst Case Central Range Best Case ROC Source: WA DOR and author s calculations.

9 Spokane Real Median Household Income and Spending, $50,000 Real Dollars, (2005 Base Year) $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000-2% +9% -9% -20% $25, Est Spokane Taxable Sales/Household Spokane Median HHI Source: OFM, BEA, and author s calculations.

10 Real Weekly Wage (2007 Bae Year) Real Weekly Wage, $800 $781 $750 $737 $700 $675 $650 $647 $600 $550 $566 $552 $ Benton+Franklin Spokane Kootenai Source: BLS, BEA, and author s calculations.

11 Existing Home Price Growth, % 0% -2% 0.9% 0.2% -0.1% 2013 Spokane, WA Kootenai, ID Benton+Franklin, WA U.S. -1.0% Annual Growth SPK -4% -6% KOOT -8% -6.3% -2.6% -3% -1% to 1% 3% -3.5% -2% 0% to 2% 4% 2011 Est % -8.5% Worst Case Central Range Best Case Source: FHFA and author s calculations.

12 Spokane+Kootenai Growth in Residential Units Permitted, % Annual Growth in Units 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 2% 0.0% 2011 Est Source: Construction Monitor and author s calculations.

13 Top 20 Spokane-Area Construction Projects, Journal of Business, 2012 Top 20: $245 Million in Permit Valuaitons Private Sector, 45% Government, 55% Source: Journal of Business and author s calculations.

14 Hart Capital INW-15 Regional Equity Index, 3Q Q Index, 3Q 2011 = Index % Change Russell % Hart Capital INW-15 29% S&P % 3Q Q Q Q Q 2012 Russell 2000 S&P 500 Hart Capital-15 Index Source: Hart Capital, Standard and Poor s, Russell, and Economagic.com

15 Hart Capital INW-15 Changes in Share Prices, 3Q Q 2012 Increasing % Change Key Tronic 188% Sterling Financial 80% Northwest Bancorp 54% Itron 46% CdA Mines 35% WTB Financial 29% Hecla Mining 22% Clearwater Paper 22% Potlach 19% Avista 8% Decreasing % Change Coldwater Creek -34% Intermountain Bank -8% ID Independent Bank -7% Red Lion Hotels -7% Ambassadors Group -6% Reflects on-going restructuring and a tough retail market for clothing and hospitality. Source: Hart Capital.

16 Spokane+Kootenai Bank Performance, 2Q Q % 9.2% 8% 6% 6.5% 4.8% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 2Q Q Q Q Q % -1.6% -4% Noncurrent loans to loans Pretax ROA Source: FDIC.

17 Federal Government Procurement Per Captia Washington Per Capita Federal Procurement Dependency Relative to U.S., 2010 $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 U.S. ($1,670) Benton-Franklin ($12,400), Klickitat, Kitsap, Garfield, King. Spokane ($788) Mason Kittitas Pend Oreille Pacific Asotin Grays Harbor Lewis Lincoln Chelan Whitman Adams Wahkiakum Cowlitz Clark Whatcom Ferry Yakima Douglas San Juan Grant Skagit Jefferson Thurston Snohomish Skamania Spokane Columbia Stevens Okanogan Walla Walla Pierce Clallam Island King Garfield Kitsap Klickitat Benton-Franklin Source: Census, BEA,and author s calculations.

18 Typical Questions and My Typical Answers 1. What do you think about gold? Answer: It s pretty. My wife likes it too much. 2. What if the euro fails, we fall off the fiscal cliff, and China goes into a recession? Answer: Read Lord of the Flies. Get a conch shell. 3. Can the federal budget be balanced without raising taxes? Answer: Yes. Only cry babies need national defense and roads.

19 Thank You!