City of Saint John Common Council Special Meeting AGENDA

Transcription

1 City of Saint John Common Council Special Meeting AGENDA Wednesday, August 17, :15 p.m. Council Chamber Please use Chipman Hill entrance S'il vous plaît utiliser l'entrée Chipman Hill Pages 1. Call to Order 1.1 New Brunswick's Economic Growth Plan The Path Back to Economic Growth in New Brunswick State of the Saint John Economy

2 PEOPLE INNOVATION CAPITAL INFRASTRUCTURE AGILITY New Brunswick s Economic Growth Plan: Why growth is imperative August

3 New Brunswick s Economic Growth Plan: Why growth is imperative August 2016 Published by: Executive Council Office Government of New Brunswick P. O. Box 6000 Fredericton, New Brunswick E3B 5H1 Canada Printed in New Brunswick ISBN (print edition) ISBN (PDF: English)

4 I. Why does New Brunswick need a growth plan? : Fifty years of slow but steady progress Here in New Brunswick, we have made great progress as a province throughout the 20th Century. Imagine: In 1960, per-capita personal income was 40 per cent less than the Canadian average. By 2014, this gap had narrowed to 11 per cent. In 1976, 15.5 per cent of us earned low incomes. By 2011, this rate had gone down to 5.8 per cent 1. While unemployment is still too high, more of us are working than ever before. In the past 30 years, only one other province achieved a faster increase in the workforce employment rate (the percentage of adults with a job) than New Brunswick. Not that long ago, the only modern four-lane highways were in Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton. Today, we have more than 750 km of four-lane highway; two key corridors, Route 1 and Route 2 (the Trans-Canada Highway) have been twinned from end to end. Our airports and seaports are far more advanced now than several decades ago. The Greater Moncton International Airport can accommodate the largest cargo planes. The Port of Belledune has joined the Port of Saint John in providing ice-free port service. Figure 1: Percentage of households with access to 25 Mbps broadband infrastructure or higher (2014) PE SK NL MB AB Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report, October 2015 According to Statistics Canada s 2014 Canadian Community Health Survey, 93.4 per cent of us have a regular doctor the highest rate among the provinces. Our standard of living is much better. Our quality of life is higher. We are living longer than ever. Our stewardship of the environment has improved substantially. QC NS NB ON BC We rank third among the 10 provinces for the percentage of households with access to high-speed broadband infrastructure (Figure 1). Until the 1960s, the quality of schools, hospitals and social services throughout New Brunswick varied widely, depending on the strength of the local tax base and other factors. Wealthier areas enjoyed more or better quality services. Less affluent ones received fewer or poorer quality services. Then came Equal Opportunity. Today, we have access to a wide range of quality public services regardless of where we live. 1 Low income cut-offs after tax, 1992 base. Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table

5 2008: New Brunswick s economic progress stalls New Brunswick had a promising start to the 21st century. The economy was growing. Employment was increasing. Businesses were investing. From 2000 to 2007 more than $8 billion was invested in large-scale projects. The introduction of natural gas brought a clean and efficient source of energy. Forestry was at its peak in terms of its economic contribution and jobs. We became a hotbed for customer contact centres and national back offices, drawing on an advanced telecommunications infrastructure and a bilingual workforce. The Information Technology (IT) sector was growing, and we were at the front end of a substantial expansion of public- and private-sector research spending that doubled investments in R&D between 2000 and The government was in a solid fiscal position, had balanced its books and, along with all other provinces, was benefitting from a significant expansion of federal government transfers. But there were storm clouds in the distance. For decades, a surplus of workers meant that industries did not have to worry about recruiting and retaining employees. Then came the 2001 Census, which projected the province was on the cusp of an unprecedented demographic shift. For the first time, New Brunswick s population declined from the previous census taken in The government responded by creating a population growth strategy. Addressing these challenges became the focus of the government in 2006 as it targeted a 100,000-increase in the population by A range of economic and demographic challenges all came together in the mid-2000s. The labour market was tightening. Many of the industries that had sustained growth were showing signs of weakness. The Canadian dollar was rising, eroding the competitiveness of key industries such as tourism. Manufacturing was beginning to feel increased global competition. Mining was in decline and was set to drop even further with the closure of the Bathurst-area Brunswick Mines. The customer contact centre and national back office cluster, which had peaked in 2004, was shedding workers. Several large forestry mills closed and were dismantled. Forestry lost one-half of its value to the provincial economy in just a few short years. This left New Brunswick s economy in a weak position when the recession hit in After the recession, the federal government decreased its direct and indirect spending in the province. The large private investment boom fizzled. All the while, unsettling demographic and industry trends continued. The other provinces emerged with at least some growth and net new employment. Our economy, however, remained stagnant and so did employment. Deeper dive: The impact of the Canadian dollar on our economy We depend on the United States as an export market more than all other provinces. In 2015, 90 per cent of our international merchandise exports (by value) went to the United States. The ongoing fluctuation of the Canadian dollar compared to the American dollar creates challenges for our economy. In January 2001, $1 Cdn was worth 62 cents U.S. By November 2011, the value of the Canadian dollar had skyrocketed by 78 per cent to $1.10 U.S., but by May 2016, $1 Cdn had fallen back down to 76 cents U.S. Our exporters suffer when the Canadian dollar is high. On the other hand, they can generate aboveaverage profits from U.S. sales when the dollar is low. In the long run, New Brunswick exporters need to build business models that are profitable at currency conversion rates in the range of $1 Cdn being worth 80 to 85 U.S. When the Canadian dollar is weak, exporters should invest in productivity improvements to help sustain their business when the dollar is stronger. In the longer term, New Brunswick exporters must diversify their markets to be less reliant on the United States. Between 2008 and 2014, real gross domestic product (GDP) the broadest measure of the economy declined in New Brunswick by 0.1 per cent. During the same period, GDP rose by five per cent in Nova Scotia and nine per cent on Prince Edward Island. The number of people working has also declined. We had 6,800 fewer people working in 2014 than in Manufacturing alone shed 5,200 workers. By 2 The New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan 4

6 comparison across the country nearly 800,000 more people were working in 2014 than in Business investment has gone down by nearly $1 billion per year. Many of the industries that created jobs in the early 2000s are now cutting jobs. Our population younger than 45 has declined steadily dropping by 84,000 between 2000 and This is more than the population of Saint John. We have to go back to 1979 to find as few people younger than 45 participating in our workforce as there were in 2014 (Figure 2). During the same period, the number of people younger in this age group in the national workforce swelled by more than 2.5 million. The weak economy is hampering the ability of government to fund needed public services. The pressure on government to continue to provide quality public services and infrastructure at a time of stagnant growth has pushed up public debt levels not seen in more than 50 years. Our quality of life and standard of living will be in jeopardy if we cannot return to solid and sustained economic and population growth. Figure 2: Number of New Brunswickers younger than 45 in the workforce (000s) Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table and onward: A pivot back to economic growth New Brunswick is beginning to witness positive economic trends and recent successes that will position the province for further economic growth. Last year New Brunswick s economy grew at its fastest rate since 2010 and is showing signs of continued growth into Average weekly earnings have increased by 2.7 per cent since 2014, compared to Canadian growth of 1.8 per cent. Retail sales have increased for 11 of the last 12 quarters and the first quarter of 2016 saw gains of 9.4 per cent, the highest quarterly growth rate since the first quarter of New Brunswick has the best Internet access in the country by a significant margin over other provinces, with average download speeds of around 27 Mbps, according to a report from the Canadian Internet Registration Authority. Fredericton, Moncton and Saint John were ranked as three of the four most cost competitive cities in Canada to do business, as reported in KPMG s Competitive Alternatives 2016 report. Setting the Stage: The role of government to foster economic growth A primary objective of government must be to restore growth and create jobs. We must realize the status quo is not acceptable. If nothing changes, eventually all of us will be hurt one way or another. What is holding us back? We have already taken steps to address our fiscal situation and grow our economy. The trends are proof of the steady gains in the economy but there is more to do. The climate is right for economic growth. We need to take bold steps and work in partnership to find solutions to the challenges we are facing and continue the recent positive economic growth trends. Address the PEOPLE challenge: Reverse the shrinking workforce. Even as we face relatively high unemployment, we cannot be distracted from the problem of our shrinking workforce. We will not return to sustained growth without a deliberate and focused effort to expand the workforce, particularly among those younger than 40. Address the INNOVATION gap: Our companies, institutions and governments spend less on R&D as a share of GDP than all other provinces. We rank near the bottom among the provinces for innovation capacity. If we want to return to sustained growth, 5 3

7 Deeper dive: We need to embrace the global economy New Brunswick is a small province. Most of the products we consume from food to consumer products like electronics and vehicles are not produced here. To have a strong and growing economy, we must export products and services across Canada and beyond. At the same time, global competition for export markets, investment and talent has never been greater. There are global trends that will influence us regardless whether we are ready. We cannot pretend we are immune from them. We must find and exploit our place in the global economy. We must attract investment and talent from around the world. we must expand investment in research, foster innovative companies and invest in the infrastructure that will make us a smarter province. Address the CAPITAL gap: Ensure there is enough investment capital to foster growth. We need to ensure that entrepreneurs across the province have access to a broad range of private capital sources to spur investment and economic growth. Address the strategic economic INFRASTRUCTURE challenge: We must invest in infrastructure that fosters competitiveness and stimulates privatesector growth. We are committed to investing from gateway infrastructure like ports and airports to innovation-enabling infrastructure to drive competitiveness and growth. Address the government s AGILITY challenge: We must become more agile in how we work with industry and more proactive in our focus on economic development. There are many ways government can be more nimble and promote a more positive business climate while ensuring growth is consistent with social, environmental, aboriginal and community objectives. It can cut red tape. It can improve procurement. It can take less time to make decisions. Looking ahead, we will devote more time and effort to build a compelling value proposition that convinces companies to invest here. II. What do we want to achieve? We want New Brunswick to be a place where people who work hard can get ahead. We want New Brunswick to be a place where entrepreneurial risk is rewarded by new wealth creation. We want New Brunswick to be a place where people, young and old, can build happy and fulfilled lives; where families can thrive; and where new Canadians can prosper. We have proven we can compete and win in the global economy. There are examples all over the province of entrepreneurs who have built globally competitive businesses. We have attracted global companies to invest in our natural resource-based and our knowledgebased industries. We must build on these examples. We have the tools for success at our fingertips. The vision for New Brunswick: 2020 If the New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan is successful, what are we hoping to achieve in the short term? What will a growing and vibrant New Brunswick look like in 2020? We need to focus our talent development, economic development, innovation investments and other activities of the provincial government to help bring New Brunswick back to a strong rate of economic growth. The Government of New Brunswick needs a growing tax base/economic foundation on which to raise enough revenue to fund quality public services and public infrastructure. 4 The New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan 6

8 People Innovation Capital Infrastructure Agility The workforce is expanding and the province has returned to net employment growth. The economy will expand again, driving new employment in export-oriented and local services-oriented sectors. The population is returning to solid growth particularly among those 40 and younger. Increasing the number of younger New Brunswickers is critical to supporting longterm growth. Investment in R&D is increasing. Entrepreneurs are building innovative start-ups. New Brunswick companies are investing in competitiveness. New Brunswick-based, national and international firms are boosting their investment here. Start-up companies and fast-growing entrepreneurs have access to capital. The $150 million set aside by the provincial government each year for strategic investments is renewing key public- and private-sector infrastructure. New innovationboosting infrastructure has been built around the province. Government has become more agile. Decisions have been made that put the provincial government finances on a firm foundation and ensure that tax rates remain stable and quality public services and infrastructure can be maintained. It is easier to start a business. Red tape has been reduced and the time it takes to get permits and other approvals has gone down. Many regulations that impact business across the Maritimes Provinces have been harmonized. Government decision-making occurs in a more timely fashion. Deeper dive: GDP growth, taxes and public services If the economy is not growing, it becomes more difficult to raise enough tax revenue to fund public services. For example, the Saskatchewan government spent $11,558 per person on programs in During the same fiscal year, we spent $10,383 per person on programs. While per-capita spending was actually more in Saskatchewan, provincial government program spending was equivalent to only 16.2 per cent of that province s GDP, compared to 24.1 per cent of GDP in New Brunswick. This represents our province s fundamental challenge. If the economy is not growing and creating higher-value economic activity, it becomes harder to pay for public services and infrastructure. 7 5

9 The vision for New Brunswick: Beyond 2020 In the longer term, a sustained focus on the elements of the New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan is meant to create a strong economic foundation and the basis for a high quality of life for all of us. We will have addressed: our PEOPLE challenge: by growing our workforce, by providing more targeted training and skills alignment efforts, and by significantly growing the number of new and returning New Brunswickers settling here. our INNOVATION challenge: by fostering an innovative, competitive and entrepreneurial economy, and by investing in Research and Development. our CAPITAL challenge: by attracting private-sector investment based on the strength of our business climate. our INFRASTRUCTURE challenge: by making a long-term commitment to investing in infrastructure that will ensure industries continue to invest here and talent from around the world will come to call our province home. our AGILITY challenge: by increasing the speed at which government responds to economic opportunities, changing global markets and our citizens within a sustainable fiscal framework. In the longer term, a growing economy and expanding workforce will enable us to continue the progress started in the 1960s. People Innovation Capital Infrastructure Agility A demographically balanced, growing population and economy creating a sustainable economic foundation for all regions. Multicultural, diverse and thriving communities. An innovative economy and population creating higher-value activity. An environment that is attractive to private-sector investment and that encourages us to invest locally. World-class infrastructure supports economic and social objectives. A government fiscal framework that is sustainable and reduces our dependency on fiscal equalization payments. The focus on agility means that New Brunswick is known across North America as an excellent location in which to invest. We have an economy providing opportunities for all. Deeper dive: Taking control of our destiny Sometimes it feels, as individuals, communities and a province, that events outside our control are shaping our destiny. Even though we are buffeted by global and national economic forces, we have to realize that no one else is coming to our rescue. In Paris, Shanghai, Mumbai, New York, Toronto and even Ottawa, our challenges do not show up on the radar. But in Saint John, Beresford, Edmundston, Riverview and Minto, how we address these challenges will determine our future. To us, they mean everything. We must take control of our collective destiny. If we are to achieve the vision for our province in the long term, it will be our decisions as individuals, families, business owners, community leaders and government that will make it happen. 6 The New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan 8

10 The path back to economic growth in New Brunswick. It won't be easy. 9 August 2016

11 Presentation overview State of the provincial economy circa 2016 Economic and demographic trends Green shoots in 2016 A few thoughts on the Saint John CMA economy The path back to economic growth Growing the workforce Encouraging investment and entrepreneurship Boosting innovation What is the role of government? The New Brunswick Growth Plan 10 2

12 STATE OF THE ECONOMY CIRCA

13 We are in the longest period of economic stagnation since the Great Depression 12 4

14 New Brunswick economy. Not Greece, but.. New Brunswick is in the longest period of economic stagnation since the Great Depression. R&D spending has dropped back to the level of the early 2000s. Total employment has dropped by 9,000 since Public (GNB) debt to GDP ratio almost back to its current era high water mark in the early 1990s. 13 Business investment is down by $1B per year. The provincial workforce is shrinking. Outward migration of young NBers continues unabated. 5

15 The demographic challenge could be the biggest barrier to economic growth. The median age nearly doubled since the early 1970s. Over 80,000 to retire in the next decade even as the provincial workforce is in decline. Entrepreneurship may also be in decline. Many industries are already struggling to find workers across the province. Attitudes toward economic development are calcifying. 14 6

16 The link between workforce growth/decline and GDP growth Average annual post-recession real GDP growth rates +3.6% Average annual labour market growth 5, % 2, % Post-Recession Period 15 Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table and

17 Labour market participation rate: years (%) Canada New Brunswick Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table

18 Green shoots in 2016? Second fastest employment growth among the 10 provinces (July 2015-July 2016). Among the strongest average weekly earnings growth over the past year. Solid boost in tourist traffic so far in But, capital expenditures down again in Forecasted GDP growth will be well below the 1.9% in

19 A FEW THOUGHTS ON THE SAINT JOHN ECONOMY CIRCA

20 Cumulative GDP growth ( ) 14.4% 2.9% 3.6% SJ CMA NB CAN 19 11

21 Average annual population growth by component ( ) Per 10,000 population Natural population growth Immigrants Net interprovincial migration Net intraprovincial migration St. John's Halifax (9) 34 Moncton (8) 71 Saint John (67) (3) Median (33 CMAs) Saint John rank (out of 33 CMAs) 25th 20th 33rd 29th Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table

22 Labour Market Assessment: Saint John CMA Employment (2015) All industries 64,300 5% 10 yr % Change LQ (CAN = 1.00) Goods-producing sector 13,100 34% 0.98 Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 1,100 33% 1.27 Utilities 1,000 60% 3.30 Construction 5,900 37% 0.99 Manufacturing 5,000 34% 0.91 Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table

23 Labour Market Assessment: Saint John CMA Employment (2015) 10 yr % Change LQ (CAN = 1.00) Services-producing sector 51,200-1% 1.00 Wholesale and retail trade 10,300-17% 0.96 Transportation and warehousing 2,600 4% 0.89 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing 3,300 12% 0.74 Professional, scientific and technical services 3,900 10% 0.93 Business, building and other support services 5,200 2% 1.93 Educational services 4,300-12% 0.84 Health care and social assistance 10,100 5% 1.19 Information, culture and recreation 2,200 0% 1.02 Accommodation and food services 4,300 36% 1.05 Other services (except public administration) 2,000-29% 0.74 Public administration 3,000 8% 0.87 Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table

24 The path back to economic growth Focus on growing the workforce Address gaps across the spectrum Strengthen the value proposition for business investment What are we really good at? Resource industries, knowledge-based industries, geography-specific attributes Promote an innovation agenda The importance of urban growth Find our place in the world 23 15

25 Addressing youth out-migration: Wages Matter Percentage change between 2008 and 2014 in the number of persons aged 35 and under reporting income of less than $35,000 per year and $50,000+ Persons reporting income of under $35,000 Persons reporting income of $50,000 and over New Brunswick -16% +40% Moncton -11% +41% Saint John -17% +29% Fredericton -8% +46% Bathurst -18% +27% Miramichi -7% +75% Campbellton -17% +40% Edmundston -22% +38% Non CMA-CA -21% +42% Canada -4% +40% Source: Statistics Canada

26 Immigration and economic renewal Many of our key, export-oriented industries are starting to struggle finding workers (other industries too). The unemployment rate is still too high but there are many reasons why this isn t solving the workforce gap (seasonality, mobility, skills alignment, etc.) Immigration will be key to addressing our workforce needs. Immigration will also be an important source of entrepreneurs, ideas and investment. Immigration will also drive up demand for services and boost local economies around the province

27 Less than 5 percent of all workers in New Brunswick s business support services sector are first generation immigrants. In Vancouver it is 47%. In Toronto it is over 50%

28 Share of workers in manufacturing and utilities occupations that are first generation immigrants 27 Source: Statistics Canada National Household Survey (2011). 19

29 Employment trend: Administrative services 28 20

30 Immigrants drive demand for local services and high wage occupations School teachers 56 Registered nurses 46 Accountants and investment professionals Auto mechanics Managers in financial and business services 16 Engineers Electricians Doctors Lawyers Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists Architects ,000 immigrant families spending average household income creates enough demand to support 1,500 jobs across the province*. Dentists 2 *assuming four persons per immigrant family. Assumes the current labour 29force distribution would be the same for the incremental 1,000 families. Source: Statistics Canada National Household Survey (2011). 21

31 There hasn t been much immigration into New Brunswick since the mid 19th Century Percentage of the population that is at least third generation Canadian. Northeast NB Northwest NB Moncton Saint John Calgary Montreal Vancouver Toronto Burnaby, BC Markham, ON 30 48% 44% 26% 22% 21% 13% 98% 93% 90% 89% 22

32 WHAT IS THE RIGHT ROLE FOR GOVERNMENT? 31 23

33 The Role of Government Government can t control everything Many things -from the value of the Canadian dollar to technological change and market forces cannot be controlled by provincial governments However, government does influence many business investment drivers The development of the workforce Creating a positive environment for entrepreneurship and business investment. Investing in infrastructure to boost competitiveness Promoting NB as a great place to live and set up a business. We can help put the conditions in place so that enterprising people and places can succeed

34 The New Brunswick Growth Plan THE FIVE PILLARS: People: The actions we take to grow our provincial workforce now and ensure its continued growth into the future. Ideas. The actions we take to expand our capacity for innovation. Money. The actions we take as a government to attract investment from the private sector. Infrastructure. The investments we make into public and private strategic infrastructure to boost our competitiveness as a province. Nimble government. The actions we take to foster agility and nimbleness in the public sector and across our economy

35 The New Brunswick Growth Plan The new opportunities-based approach to economic development Government works closely with industry and community partners to identify and develop specific economic opportunities where we have advantages, attributes and strengths that can be exploited

36 Questions? 35 27

37 State of the Saint John Economy Growth and Community Development Services August

38 Introduction: Interpreting Data 2 37

39 Introduction: Data Sources Human Development Council Enterprise Saint John Discover Saint John Saint John Industrial Parks University of New Brunswick Finance and Administrative Services and various City staff City s Revenue Team 3 38

40 Introduction: Types of Data Major Trends Geography and Budget Labour Force Economic Activity Housing Population Education Income 4 39

41 Major Trends: Saint John Saint John s financial contribution to New Brunswick (especially compared to Moncton and Fredericton) is shifting in various areas Saint John outperforms New Brunswick in several key areas The economy is dominated by exports, industry, manufacturing GDP growth has been stagnant Saint John has alarming poverty and lone parent family rates Aging housing stock Homeownership is relatively affordable compared to other cities 5 40

42 Major Trends: New Brunswick Saint John demographics mirror New Brunswick demographics Decline in university enrolment in Atlantic Canada New Brunswick s urbanization is not keeping pace with the remainder of Canada New Brunswick relies on the Canadian dollar being low because the economy is export-based Cities are leading the province on the majority of economic indicators 6 41

43 Major Trends: Canada Still recovering from economic downturn Urbanization is a common trend across Canada Missing or incomplete data due to the replacement of the Census with the 2011 National Household Survey World oil prices continue to impact on the value of the Canadian dollar 7 42

44 Geography: Area Comparison 8 43

45 Budget: Intergovernmental Transfers $40,000, $35,000, $30,000, $25,000, $20,000, $15,000, $10,000, $5,000, $0.00 Federal and Provincial Funding 9 Source: City of Saint John Provincial Transfers 44 Federal Transfers

46 Budget: Tax Base Growth 10 9,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,000,000, Saint John Source: Government of New Brunswick 45

47 Budget: Tax Base Growth 11 9,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,000,000, Saint John Moncton Source: Government of New Brunswick 46

48 Budget: Tax Base Growth 12 9,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,000,000, Saint John Moncton Fredericton Source: Government of New Brunswick 47

49 Budget: Equalization/Unconditional Grant $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000, $ Saint John Moncton Fredericton 48 Source: Government of New Brunswick

50 Budget: Equalization/Unconditional Grant 2014 unconditional/equalization grant 30% Saint John 70% 100+ municipalities 14 Source: Government of New Brunswick 49

51 Labour Force: Employment Comparative Employment 15 Source: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada 50

52 Labour Force: Breakdown Labour Force by Sector, Saint John-St. Stephen, Source: Stats Canada Labour Force Survey 51

53 Labour Force: Breakdown Labour Force by Sector, Saint John-St. Stephen Source: Stats Canada Labour Force Survey 52

54 Economic Activity: GDP Growth Saint John s average rate of growth between 2011 through 2020 will be 1.2% a year equivalent to 25th out of 28 CMAs in Canada. 18 Source: Conference Board of Canada 53

55 Economic Activity: GDP Growth Forecasted GDP Growth New Brunswick, 2016 APEC: 1% C.D. Howe Institute: 1.2% Conference Board of Canada: 1.6% 19 54

56 Economic Activity: Major Projects 2016 Major project spending in New Brunswick grew by 29% in It is expected to grow an additional 5% this year. 20 Source: APEC Major Projects (2016) 55

57 Economic Activity: Port , , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Source: Port Saint John Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) Saint John Halifax

58 Economic Activity: Port 35,000,000 Total Tonnage 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 Saint John Halifax 10,000,000 5,000, Source: Port Saint John

59 Economic Activity: Tourism Total Visitors Visitors Source: Discover Saint John, Statistics Canada, Ron Cunningham and Total Overnight Visitors 58

60 Economic Activity: Tourism Cruise Ship Calls Cruise Ship Passengers Saint John Halifax Source: Cruise Saint John Saint John Halifax

61 Economic Activity: Airport Airport Passengers Source: Saint John Airport Saint John Moncton Fredericton 60

62 Economic Activity: Development 26 61

63 Economic Activity: Development 27 62

64 Economic Activity: Cost of Living Comparative Cost of Living Saint John CMA Relative to New Brunswick 28 Source: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada 63

65 Housing: Homeownership Homeownership Rates 2011 National Household Survey Saint John Moncton Fredericton 42.6% 57.4% 40% 60% 39% 61% Owners Renters Owners Renters Owners Renters 29 Source: Stats Canada National Household Survey (Census) 64

66 Housing: Vacancy Rate 14.00% Rental Vacancy Rates 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% East West North South 2.00% 30 Source: CMHC 0.00% Oct Oct Oct

67 Housing: Rental Cost $740 Average Rents Saint John $720 $700 $680 $660 $640 $620 East West North South 31 Source: CMHC $600 $580 Oct Oct Oct

68 Housing: Age of Housing Stock Housing Stock Built in Last 10 Years Saint John New Brunswick Canada 8.5% 13.8% 15.6% Housing Stock Built Before 1960 Saint John New Brunswick Canada 43.4% 26.7% 24.6% Housing Requiring Major Repairs Saint John New Brunswick Canada 9.9% 9.8% 7.4% 32 Source: Stats Canada National Household Survey (Census) 67

69 Housing: In Perspective House Price Change in Last 5 Years Canada +35.5% Saint John -9.2% 33 Source: Globe and Mail 44.4% differential 68

70 Housing: In Perspective Ownership Costs as % of Median Household Income Saint John July 2016 Halifax July 2016 Toronto July 2016 Vancouver July 2016 Canada July 2016 Best Practice 27.5% 29% 71.7% 119.5% 47.1% 30% Insert picture of houses in Subdivision in GrowSJ folder 34 Source: CMHC 69

71 Housing: Properties Sold Number of Properties Sold in Greater Saint John Source: Saint John Real Estate Board

72 Housing: Average Sale 36 $200, $180, $160, $140, $120, $100, $80, $60, $40, $20, $0.00 Source: Saint John Real Estate Board Average MLS Sale for Greater Saint John

73 Housing: Average Sale $300,000 Average MLS Sale $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Saint John Remainder of CMA Rothesay - Quispamsis Grand Bay - Westfield $50, Source: CMHC $

74 Housing: Multiple Unit Starts Multiple Unit Starts 1600 Saint John Moncton Fredericton Source: CMHC

75 Population: Urban New Brunswick Where We Live Outside CMA s* CMA s* Cities Source: Stats Canada Census 74

76 Population: Rural New Brunswick 2011 rural and urban population percentage New Brunswick Canada 19% 52% 48% Rural Urban 81% Rural Urban 40 Source: Stats Canada Census 75

77 Population: Migration and Natural Growth Saint John Population Growth Net Natural Increase Migration Source: Government of New Brunswick 76

78 Population: Migration and Natural Growth 1000 Saint John CMA Population Growth Net Natural Increase Migration Source: Government of New Brunswick 77

79 Population: In Perspective Total Population Growth Saint John -40 Saint John CMA Source: Stats Canada Census 78

80 Population: Components of Change Components of Saint John Population Change 44 Source: Stats Canada Census 79

81 Population: Immigration Immigrant Landings Saint John - St. Stephen 45 Source: Stats Canada Census 80

82 Population: Immigration Immigrant Landings Saint John - St. Stephen Monton - Richibucto 46 Source: Stats Canada Census 81

83 Population: Immigration Immigrant Landings Saint John - St. Stephen Monton - Richibucto Fredericton - Oromocto 47 Source: Stats Canada Census 82

84 Population: Immigration 2500 Category of Immigrants (New Brunswick) Family Class Economic Immigrants Refugees Source: Government of New Brunswick

85 Population: Aging demographics Elderly Population Ratio Share of Population Aged 65 and Older 49 Source: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada 84

86 Population: Projections Assumes 14% population growth, 10K more people, 25% more jobs in Saint John by Population Projection for the City of Saint John Source: Strategic Projections Inc. 85

87 Education: Literacy Percentage of New Brunswick Population Ranks Below Level 3 Literacy, % 56% 64% Canada Anglophone, NB Francophone, NB 51 Source: Achieve Literacy New Brunswick s adult literacy scores are the second-lowest in Canada 86

88 Education: Attainment Level of Educational Attainment Saint John 2011 Canada 2011 Less than high school 23% 13% High School diploma 31% 23% Trades certificate 11% 12% College diploma 19% 21% University certificate or diploma below the bachelor level 2% 5% University certificate, diploma, or degree 14% 26% 52 Source: Statistics Canada National Household Survey (Census) 87

89 Education: University Enrolment 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % % Atlantic Canada, University Enrolment % UNBSJ Source: University of New Brunswick All Atlantic Canadian Universities 88

90 Income: Average Income by Education Average Income by Education Level at Career Midpoint in New Brunswick $63,800 $49,900 $34,200 $23,700 $17,800 Master's Bachelor's 2-yr Diploma High School <High School 54 Source: University of New Brunswick 89

91 Income: Household Income $80,000 $75,000 Median Annual Household Income $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 Saint John Moncton New Brunswick Canada $55,000 $50, Source: Statistics Canada 90

92 Income: Growth of Income v Cost of Living Growth of Incomes in Saint John vs. Increases in Cost of Living 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 56 Source: Statistics Canada Saint John Incomes 91 CPI

93 Income: Single Parent Households Saint John has had the lowest income levels for single parent families of any Canadian urban centre since Source: Statistics Canada 92

94 Income: Poverty Child Poverty Rate 31.0% Overall Poverty Rate 19.5% 58 Source: Stats Canada - LIM-AT,

95 Conclusion: Lessons Learned Responding to Saint John s economic situation will likely require the combination of incremental and dramatic one-time growth Saint John s economic reality has changed over the years, and in order to effectively respond, an intentional and purposeful effort, on a variety of fronts, will be required (no silver bullet) Demographic trends cannot be ignored Consider what role Common Council should play in defining growth, and consequently, generating growth 59 94

96 Conclusion: Reasons to be optimistic Saint John, Moncton, Fredericton are three of the top four most cost competitive cities in Canada to do business (KPMG) Large-scale projects on the horizon Continued investment into urban core (Smart Growth) Recent drop in unemployment rate in Saint John 60 95

97 Conclusion: Defining Growth 61 96

98 Conclusion: Defining Growth Moving reform agenda for older industrial cities requires: Must make the competent, clean, transparent, and technologically savvy administration of government operations and services their highest priority, with the goal of creating a healthy and receptive climate for business growth and retention. At the same time, they must also work to build strong coalitions of innovative thinkers, actors, and stakeholders to develop and implement a competitive, long-terms strategy for revitalization The Brookings Institution (2007) 97

99 Conclusion: Staff Advice 1. Acceptance of economic reality 2. Common Council leading change 3. Defining growth 4. Strategic planning 5. Ongoing monitoring, evaluation and adaptability 63 98

100 Conclusion: Next Steps 64 99