One-Factor Asset Pricing

Transcription

1 One-Factor Asset Pricing with Stefanos Delikouras (University of Miami) Alex Kostakis MBS 12 January 217, WBS Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 1 / 32

2 Presentation Outline Motivation and Related Literature Generalized Disappointment Aversion SDF Asset Pricing Tests Disappointment Events Robustness Checks Conclusions Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 2 / 32

3 Motivation Long tradition in asset pricing linking premia to consumption risk C-CAPM: aggregate consumption growth should be a suffi cient statistic for expected returns (Breeden, 1979) Main implication: Risk Premium γcov (r i,t+1, c t+1 ) However, aggregate consumption growth has proved too smooth to generate the empirical equity premium (Mehra and Prescott, 1985) explain the cross-section of stock/ portfolio premia implied Risk Aversion coeffi cient implausibly high (Rabin, 2) Recent attempts to engineer a more volatile SDF via alternative definitions of consumption risk (Parker and Julliard, 25, Yogo, 26, Jagannathan and Wang, 27, Savov, 211) have had limited success Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 3 / 32

4 Motivation Empirical asset pricing literature dominated by multi-factor models since Fama and French (1993) Fishing license: Merton s ICAPM and Ross s APT Factors are typically return-generated and a-theoretical Unsettled debate whether factors proxy macro risks or capture anomalies, e.g.: Why SMB does not yield a premium in recent sample periods? What type of risk does WML capture? Proliferation of factors and factor models (3-factor FF, 4-factor FFC, 4-factor HXZ, 5-factor FF...) Serious data mining concerns (Harvey et al., 216) Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 4 / 32

5 This Paper Propose a single-factor, consumption-based asset pricing model to explain the cross-section of equity returns Sole factor is an indicator of consumption growth being less than its certainty equivalent, derived from GDA preferences Intuitive interpretation of "bad times" and consumption risk Very good and robust empirical fit for various portfolio sorts and frequencies, comparable to Fama-French multi-factor models Plausible Disappointment Aversion coeffi cients Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 5 / 32

6 sample premia 25 Size/BM Portfolio Premia.3 R 2 = betas with the GDA-I factor Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 6 / 32

7 Disappointment Aversion Model is based on Disappointment Aversion preferences (Gul, 1991) Axiomatic framework, but relaxing the independence axiom of EU Asymmetric treatment of losses vs gains à la Kahneman and Tversky (1979) & Benartzi and Thaler (1995) kink in the utility function But reference point is endogenously defined (certainty equivalent of lottery) rather than imposed ad hoc Can resolve Allais paradox and explain Samuelson s famous gamble Investor exhibits first-order risk aversion (Segal and Spivak, 199) unlike the traditional second-order risk aversion framework Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 7 / 32

8 Generalized Disappointment Aversion Functional form for GDA preferences (Routledge and Zin, 21): u(µ(p)) = x i X p (x i ) u (x i ) θ x i δµ(p) p (x i ) (u (δµ(p)) u (x i )) where µ(p) is the certainty equivalent for lottery p, θ is the DA coeffi cient, and δ is the multiplier of µ(p) Interpretation: Investor imposes a penalty proportional to θ on lottery outcomes below the disappointment threshold Can be combined with separable or non-separable utility functions Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 8 / 32

9 Related Studies with (G)DA Preferences Portfolio Choice: Ang, Bekaert and Liu (25) Khanapure (212) Dahlquist, Faragó and Tédongap (216) Equity premium: Epstein and Zin (21) Routledge and Zin (21) Bonomo, Garcia, Meddahi and Tédongap (211) Dolmas (214) Cross-sectional asset pricing: Ostrovnaya, Routledge and Zin (26) Faragó and Tédongap (215) Delikouras (216) Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 9 / 32

10 Routledge and Zin (21) SDF Starting point: GDA intertemporal SDF of Routledge and Zin (21) Mt+1 GDA = Epstein-Zin terms {}}{ [ ] α ρ [ ( ) ρ 1 Ct+1 β C t }{{} C-CAPM V t+1 µ t (V t+1 ) ] 1 + θ1{v t+1 δµ t } 1 + θδ α E t [1{V t+1 δµ t }] }{{} Disappointment Aversion correction µ t (V t+1 ) : Certainty Equivalent of Lifetime Utility (non-separability) θ : Disappointment Aversion coeffi cient (overweigh losses) 1{V t+1 δµ t } : Indicator of disappointment events Nested preferences: θ = Epstein-Zin preferences θ = & α = ρ Power utility preferences Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 1 / 32

11 GDA-I SDF 1 Homoscedastic AR(1) consumption growth with normal shocks 2 Disappointment Aversion only (α = ρ = 1) Derive GDA-I SDF for excess returns: { conditional mean }} { st dev {}} { t+1 θ1{ c t+1 µ c (1 φ c ) + φ c c t + d 2 }{{ 1 φ 2 c σ c } } certainty equivalent M GDA I Threshold for disappointment event depends on deviation from expected consumption growth controlled by d 2 Consumption growth covariance risk is not priced GDA-I is an indicator function of consumption growth being less than its certainty equivalent bi-modal SDF Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 11 / 32

12 Comparison with Popular SDFs C-CAPM SDF: CAPM SDF: NBER SDF: M C CAPM t+1 γ c t+1 M CAPM t+1 b m R x m,t+1 M NBER t+1 λ1{> 4 NBER recession months in a year} Fama-French 3-factor SDF: M FF 3 t+1 b mr x m,t+1 b SMB R SMB,t+1 b HML R HML,t+1 Fama-French 5-factor SDF: M FF 5 t+1 b mr x m,t+1 b SMB R SMB,t+1 b HML R HML,t+1 b RMW R RMW,t+1 b CMA R CMA,t+1 Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 12 / 32

13 Data Sample period: BEA consumption of services and non-durables Normalized by population and PCE price index NBER recession periods K. French s online data library 6 & 25 & 1 Size/BM portfolios 25 Size/OP & 25 Size/INV portfolios (post 64) 1 LTR portfolios 1 E/P portfolios (post 53) Fama-French factors Corporate bond and equity index option portfolios Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 13 / 32

14 Estimation Need to specify consumption growth moments to identify disappointment events and test GDA-I model Fit the empirical consumption growth moments jointly with Euler equations for excess portfolio returns for each cross-section via GMM: E[ c t ] µ c E[ ct 2 ] µ 2 c σ2 c E[ c t c t 1 ] µ 2 c φ c σ2 c E [ (R i,t R 1y,t ) ( 1 E [ M GDA I t ] + M GDA I t = )] Weighting matrix ensures consumption growth moments matching Competing asset pricing models estimated via GMM using identity weighting matrix Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 14 / 32

15 Annual 25 Size/BM Portfolios: Estimates GDA ind [4.27] d2.77 [ 3.6] GDA I CCAPM CAPM FF3 FF5 NBER CONS [3.499] MKT [4.781] [2.375] [2.218] SMB [.39] [1.242] HML [3.79] [.153] RMW.967 [.38] CMA [2.8] NBER ind [1.53] χ dof p RMSE R Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 15 / 32

16 Annual 25 Size/BM Portfolios: Fit.25 a) GDA I.25 b) CCAPM.25 c) FF3 sdf.25 d) NBER sdf sample risk premia Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 16 / 32

17 consumption growth Disappointment Events 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% log-consumption growth GDA threshold Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 17 / 32

18 Disappointment Years Characteristics Full Sample Disappointment Non Disappointment Market Premium 9.16% 3.5% 11.52% SMB Premium 2.12% 5.68% 3.63% HML Premium 9.2% 4.23% 9.95% S&P 5 Daily St. Dev % 19.22% 14.7% Term spread 1.62%.99% 1.74% Real Consumption growth 2.21%.7% 2.65% Earnings growth 11.23% 3.2% 12.78% Net Equity Expansion 1.52%.77% 1.66% cay.%.16%.3% Change in unemployment, t+1.6%.97%.1% Δ% in Consumer Confidence.16% 7.49% 1.8% Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 18 / 32

19 Annual 25 Size/OP Portfolios: Fit.25 a) GDA I.25 b) CCAPM.25 c) FF3 sdf.25 d) NBER sdf sample risk premia Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 19 / 32

20 Annual 25 Size/INV Portfolios: Fit.25 a) GDA I.25 b) CCAPM.25 c) FF3 sdf.25 d) NBER sdf sample risk premia Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 2 / 32

21 Monthly 25 Size/BM Portfolios: Estimates GDA ind [3.293] GDA I CCAPM CAPM FF3 FF5 NBER CONS [2.464] MKT [4.974] [2.847] [2.245] SMB [.434] [3.638] HML [4.521] [.367] RMW 9.49 [1.837] CMA [.891] NBER ind [1.374] χ dof p RMSE R Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 21 / 32

22 Monthly 25 Size/BM Portfolios: Fit.2 a) GDA I sdf.2 b) CCAPM.2 c) FF3 sdf.2 d) NBER sdf sample risk premia Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 22 / 32

23 Robustness Checks GDA-I SDF performs very well with: 1 Other equity portfolio cross-sections (LTR, E/P, 1 Size/BM, Joint) 2 Great Depression, pre-crisis & post-wwii periods 3 Recursive estimation of disappointment events 4 Value-weighted portfolios 5 Quarterly data 6 Two-stage GMM estimation 7 Other asset classes (corporate bond & equity index option portfolios) Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 23 / 32

24 sample risk premia Other Asset Classes 5 Corporate Bond & 6 Index Option & 6 Size/BM Portfolios: Annual Fit.3 a) GDA-I.3 b) CCAPM.3 c) FF3 sdf.3 d) NBER sdf Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 24 / 32

25 Why does GDA-I SDF work? GDA-I SDF implies that an asset s premium should be a linear function of its losses during disappointment events The standard asset pricing equation yields for GDA-I SDF: E[R i,t R f,t ] = Cov (R i,t R f,t, M t ) E[R i,t R f,t ] = θe[1 t] 1 θe[1 t ] E[(R i,t R f,t ) 1 t = 1] GDA-I SDF successfully aligns portfolio & factor premia with their disappointment betas Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 25 / 32

26 sample premia Premia & Disappointment Betas: 25 Size/BM Portfolios.3 R 2 = betas with the GDA-I factor Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 26 / 32

27 sample premia Premia & Disappointment Betas: 5 Fama-French Factors.1.8 R m - R f R 2 =.76.6 HML.4 SMB CMA RMW betas with the GDA-I factor Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 27 / 32

28 Disappointment Betas: Identification and Dispersion Reject the following H regarding 25 Size/BM portfolio betas: i) β i = portfolios, ii) β i = β portfolios iii) β i = β m portfolios, iv) β S1B5 = β S5B1 Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 28 / 32

29 sample premia Sensitivity to Disappointment Threshold Use d 2 = d 2 ± std error( d 2 ) to determine new disappointment threshold & events and re-estimate 25 Size/BM portfolio betas d 2 = d 2 + std error( d 2 ) 21 disappointment years.3 R 2 = betas with the GDA-I factor Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 29 / 32

30 sample premia Sensitivity to Disappointment Threshold d 2 = d 2 std error( d 2 ) 7 disappointment years.3 R 2 = betas with the GDA-I factor Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 3 / 32

31 Spurious Explanatory Power? Placebo Indicators Generate 1m series consisted of 13 ones & 67 zeros (n = 8) Estimate 25 Size/BM portfolio betas wrt placebo indicators Compute R 2 of portfolio premia on placebo betas (no intercept) Cross-sectional R 2 Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 31 / 32

32 Conclusions Propose a simple SDF to explain the cross-section of equity returns GDA-I SDF consists of an indicator function of consumption growth being less than its certainty equivalent Founded on (G)DA preferences of Gul & Routledge and Zin Yields very good empirical fit and plausible DA coeffi cients for various cross-sections Question the ability of second-order risk aversion (smooth utility functions) to explain the cross-section of equity returns Support consumption-based asset pricing but highlight the importance of downside consumption risk Alex Kostakis (MBS) One-Factor Asset Pricing 12 January 217, WBS 32 / 32