The Habit Habit. John H. Cochrane. March Hoover Institution, Stanford University and NBER

Transcription

1 The Habit Habit John H. Cochrane Hoover Institution, Stanford University and NBER March 2016

2 Habits u(c ) = (C X ) 1 γ u (C ) Cu (C ) = γ ( C C X ) = γ S As C (or S) declines, risk aversion rises.

3 Habits Slow-moving habit. Roughly, X t φ j C t j ; X t φx t 1 + C t Time-varying, recession-driven, risk premium drives return predictability from p/d; excess volatility, much else (correlation, CAPM vs CCAPM, volatility, etc.). Bubble story.

4 Habits u (C ) = (C X ) γ Precautionary savings offset intertemporal substitution. Expected returns and fear/hunger. Habits add S = fear that stocks fall in recession 1 = E t (M t+1 R t+1 ) ; E (R e t+1 ) = cov(re t+1, M t+1) M t+1 = β ( ) γ ( ) γ Ct+1 St+1 C t S t

5 Habits latest data P/D SPC (C X)/C Here, X t = k j=0 φj C t j

6 Habits successes and... directions for improvement Yes: Equity premium, low σ( c), unpredictable c, low and constant (or slow varying) risk free rate. No:... and low risk aversion. Yes: return predictability, p/d volatility, σ(r) volatility, long run equity premium. Needed:... M t+1 = β ( ) γ ( ) γ Ct+1 St+1 C t S t

7 The Standard VAR r t dp t + ε r t+1 d t+1 0 dp t + ε d t+1 dp t dp t + ε dp t+1 cov(εε ) = r d dp r σ = 20% +big -big d σ = 14% 0 not -1 dp σ = 15% Needed: Two shocks! Data ε d, ε dp uncorrelated. c is both a cashflow and a discount rate shock. d shock in model has less correlation. Match VAR? d, c need to be cointegrated.

8 (Identities) Note: d, dp carry all information r t+1 dp t ρdp t+1 + d t+1 b r = 1 b dp + b d ε r t+1 = εdp t+1 + εd t+1

9 Habits successes and... directions for improvement Needed: More state variables (?) 1. Empirical R i t+1 = a i + b i x t + c i y t +..ε i t+1 ; E t(r i t+1) = a i + b i x t + c i y t How many state variables independent linear combinations of x, y, z are there? Factor analysis of cov(e t (Rt+1 i ))? Across stocks, bonds, fx, etc? (For example, one factor for all bonds.) For mean and variance (separate?) 2. Theoretical: If more than 1, need more state variables (S) in the model! Test; Other assets, 1 = E (mr ei )? Cross section (treating time aggregation right)? But, warning, all explicit models fail R 2 = 1 tests. Still low hanging fruit for all similar models.

10 Other directions A sampling 1. Recursive utility (Epstein-Zin) 2. Long run risks (e.g. Bansal Yaron) 3. Idiosyncratic risk (e.g. Constantinides and Duffie) 4. Rare Disasters (e.g. Reitz; Barro) 5. Nonseparable across goods (e.g. Piazzesi Schneider, housing) 6. Leverage; balance-sheet; institutional (e.g. Brunnermerier,..) 7. Ambiguity aversion, min-max, (Hansen and Scheinkman) 8. Behavioral finance; probability mistakes. (e.g. Shiller, Thaler) 9. Many others Great unity of theoretical ideas. M t+1 = β ( ) γ ( ) θ Ct+1 Yt+1 C t Y t P t U (C ) = β π s (Y?)U (C s )X s s Y varies with business cycle. Fear of Y drives asset prices. (Probability = marginal utility) Habits can still capture most of these ideas. Convenience?

11 Recursive utility / Long run risk Function U t = ( (1 β)c 1 ρ t ( + β [E t U 1 γ t+1 ) 1 )] 1 ρ 1 ρ 1 γ. γ = risk aversion ρ = 1/eis. Power utility for ρ = γ. Fear = utility index M t+1 = β = β ( ) ρ ct+1 U t+1 c t ( [E t U 1 γ t+1 ( ct+1 c t ) ρ (Y t+1) ρ γ. )] 1 1 γ ρ γ

12 Recursive utility / Long run risk Fear: news of future long-horizon consumption. (ρ 1). E t+1 (ln m t+1 ) γ E t+1 ( c t+1 ) + (1 γ) [ Features/thoughts β j E t+1 ( c t+1+j ) j=1 1. iid c, reduces to power utility. Needs predictable c. 2. Current conditions c t are essentially irrelevant to fear. Only from coincidence / assumption that current c t is correlated with long run E t c t+j. (Not strong in data) 3. Is there really a lot of news about long run future c? Is that really the fear in 2008? Or Dark Matter? (Chen, Dou, Kogan) 4. Time-varying risk premium, return predictability volatility, etc. must come from exogenously changing σ t ( c t+1 ) 5. Interesting phenomena all from hard-to-see features of exogenous consumption process. Habits: endogenous rise in RA. 6. Separates IES / RA. Solves risk free rate puzzle (high risk aversion, steady low R f ). (Still needs high RA). But so do habits! 7. Preference for early resolution of uncertainty. Separate time vs. state separability Feature or bug? ]

13 (Note: Bansal Yaron Kiku consumption process) c t+1 = µ c + x t + σ t η t+1 x t+1 = ρx t + φ e σ t e t+1 σt+1 2 = σ2 + v(σt 2 σ 2 ) + σ w w t+1 d t+1 = µ d + φx t + πσ t η t+1 + φσ t u d,t+1

14 Constantinides and Duffie idiosyncratic risk Bottom line: M t+1 = β ( Ct+1 C t ) γ ( ) e γ(γ+1) 2 yt+1 2 y t+1 =cross-sectional variance of consumption growth. c i t+1 = c t+1 + η i,t+1 y t y 2 t+1 ; σ2 (η i,t+1 ) = 1 Needs y = σ(cross-sectional variance) large, varies with business cycles, conditional distribution varies over time. Exogenous, or needs new theory New work in data (Schmidt). Maybe individual rare disasters in recessions drives σ( c)?

15 Balance sheets debt institutional / intermediated finance Intermediated markets Securities? Equity Intermediary Debt Investor Investor Other assets As people / intermediaries lose money, closer to default, they get more risk averse

16 Debt can look just like habit

17 Debt/intermediated objections Why do agents get more risk averse as they approach bankruptcy, not less? OK for obscure CDS. But why not buy S&P500 directly? Why get in so much debt in the first place? Why use agents? Where are unconstrained, debt-free rich people, Warren Buffet, endowments, sovereign wealth funds etc.? (Answer: selling in a panic just like everyone else.) Why the strong correlation to macroeconomics? (Will the true state variable please stand up?) Why are individual mean returns strongly associated with comovement (factors)? Data (2008): Widespread coordinated rise in all risk premiums, including easy-to-trade, held in your and my 401(k) and Vanguard s website.

18 A common risk premium P/D BAA S&P500 AAA Yr Yr 1 BAA AAA 1 Yr Bond yields Bonds and stocks

19 Rare disasters [ ( ) γ E t (R t+1 ) Rt f Ct+1 = cov t, R t+1] C t A small chance of a very low C t+1 /C t can drive the whole covariance, raise E t R t+1 despite reasonable γ, and despite samples with small σ( c t+1 ). Objections: 1. Shouldn t we see them more often? (Data controversy) 2. Beyond equity premium? To get return predictability, p/d volatility, varying volatility, we need time-varying probabilities of rare disasters. External measurement or dark matter? 3. We seem to need different time-varying probabilities for different assets (Gabaix). 4. Correlation with business cycles? Probability of rare disasters exogenously correlated with business cycles? Or causality from stocks to recessions?

20 Probability assessments P t U (C ) = β π s U (C s )X s s π, U always enter together. There is no way to tell them apart without a priori restriction U (C ) or π(y ) Do surveys what do you expect reveal E = π or E = πu? Some model restricting π to other data, π(y ), or dark matter? Why the business cycle correlation? Min - max; robust control P t U (C ) = β min {π Θ} s π s (Y s )U (C s )X s But what s θ? Why time-varying and business cycle related?

21 Summary: Many ideas give about the same result. An extra, recession-related state variable, ( ) γ Ct+1 M t+1 = β Y t+1 No model yet decisively improves on habit in describing time-varying, business-cycle related risk premia; return predictability; excess volatility; bubbles associated with business cycles, long-run equity premium. No other model does so without relying on exogenous variation in the consumption process, just-so correlations ( c t with long run news) dark matter (time varying rare probabilities, business cycle correlated sentiment, long run news), rather than endogenous variation in risk premiums Habit, despite neglect, is at least still a convenient formalism for capturing the common ideas. C t

22 Risk averse recessions Time to unite with production, general equilibrium! Integrate finance and macro (alternative to frictions) Keynesian: Recessions are driven by static flows: C = a + mpcy ; I = I br; etc. New-Keynesian: Recessions are intertemporal substitution c t = E t c t+1 σr t = E t c t+1 σ (i t E t π t+1 ) Habit vision: Recessions are driven by endogenous time-varying risk aversion, not intertemporal substitution. Vision: Small shock. Risk aversion rises. Precautionary savings rise. ( ) c r = δ + γ E c x ( ) dc c 1 ( ) c 2 2 γ(γ + 1) σ 2 c x (Looks like discount rate shock of NK models.) Consumption declines. (Edc/c rise.) Risk aversion rises some more... Asset prices decline. Investment declines. C+I.. Output declines. Almost mulitiplier-accelerator. Does it work?

23 Simple GE model 1: PIH with habit max (c 0 x) 1 γ 1 γ c 1 = (e 0 c 0 ) + e 1 e 1 = {e h, e l } pr(e l ) = π l. [ (c1 x) + 1 γ ] E 1 γ (c 0 x) γ = E (c 1 x) γ (c 0 x) γ = π l (c l x) γ + π h (c h x) γ x = 1, γ = 2, e h = 2, e l = 0.9 (< x!), π = 0.01 (endpoint) c 0 falls drastically in bad times, to make sure c l > x c 0 acts like buffer stock, leverage, debt models: high mpc for low c. u (c 0 ) = π h u (c h ) for high e 0, but u (c 0 ) = π l u (c l ) for low e 0. Like min-max, ambiguity aversion, rare disaster, salience models. Stock prices fall, expected returns rise. Investment to fall?

24 Consumption c Rising mpc in bad times 3 Consumption e l = 0.9, e h = 2.0, x = 1 c=y 2.5 c h 2 c c 0, x=0 PIH 1 c l Time zero endowment e 0

25 u'(c) Minimax, rare disaster behavior 3 Marginal utility l u'(c l ) u'(c 0 ) h u'(c h ) Income y 0

26 Prices Stock prices fall 3 Consumption claim price and riskfree v alue 2.5 E(c)/Rf p(c) First period income 0 y

27 Expected returns, percent Risk Premia Rise 120 Consumption claim expected return and riskfree rate E(R) R f First period income 0 y

28 Investment and Q 4 ME/BE I/K 1.5 P/(20xD) α i t k t = market t book t = Q t

29 A risky investment opportunity max (c 0 x) 1 γ 1 γ [ (c1 x) + 1 γ ] E 1 γ c 1 = e 1 + θ 1 i 0 + B 0 c 0 = e 0 i 0 B 0 /R f i 0 0 (c 0 x) γ = E (c 1 x) γ (c 0 x) γ = E [ (c 1 x) γ θ 1 ] if i0 > 0. x = 1, γ = 2, e h = 2, e l = 0.9 (< x!), π = 0.01, θ l = 0.9, θ h = 1.2 Risky investment collapses

30 Consumption c 3 Consumption and Inv estment c h c c l Investment i 0 Storage/debt B Endowment e 0

31 Prices 3 Asset Prices 2.5 E(c)/Rf p(c) p( ) First period income 0 y

32 Expected returns, percent Expected return and riskfree rate E(R) production E(R) cons. claim 20 0 R f First period income 0 y

33 On to recessions The main issue of all macro: 1. Demand falls, but Y = F (K, L). Why does output fall? 2. If u rises, hungry, why not work more? max (c x) 1 γ + (h n) 1 γ s.t.c = wn (c x) = w(h n) 3. Desire to save rises. Why does investment fall? Answers: 1. Traditional: sticky prices, wages. 2. Shift of investment from risky private opportunity to storage/ government debt. ( R f ) Only i counts as y. 3. h habit? 4. Private work contributes to risky project which is being scaled back. c 1 = e 1 + θ 1 min (i 0, n 0 ) + B 0 c 0 = e 0 i 0 B 0 i 0 0; h > n > 0 i 0 = n 0 collapses Summary: Private economy is a risky project. Everyone wants to put in less money and less labor effort. Real dynamic model...

34 Summary Empirical: Asset prices are driven by a large, time-varying, business-cycle correlated risk premium. Theory: Habit captures it, endogenously. Lots of other models capture many of the same ideas. (Elegant? Exogenous? Dark Matter?) Habits capture many of the same ideas of those models. (Convenient?) Business cycle correlation; merge asset pricing and finance! Recessions are phenomena of risk aversion. Precautionary saving; scale back risky production / investment projects; all try to hold government debt. See you in 20 years?