Nordic Market Report

Transcription

1 Nordic Market Report Status as of May 8 th, SUMMARY The average spot price in April was 29.2 /MWh, down 1.2 /MWh from March and up 7.1 /MWh year-onyear. The average price in April in the period 1993 to 16 was 27.6 /MWh. The daily average Nordic system price ranged from 25.6 to 37.2 /MWh in April. The first part of the month was characterised by temperatures above normal with corresponding low consumption. Prices turned stronger when the temperatures dipped below normal around mid-april. The wind power production was very volatile in the last half of April, which caused some large daily fluctuations in the spot prices. The weather forecasts turned slightly drier during April, and lower unregulated hydro power production helped to support the prices. Nordic forward market prices generally increased during April. Net movements (March 31 sr to April 28 th ) were up 3.9 /MWh for MAY-17, up.8 /MWh for JUN-17, and up.8 /MWh for Q3-17. Further out, Q4-17 went up.3 /MWh, YR-18 up.3 /MWh and YR-19 down.3 /MWh. In Germany, MAY-17 went up.9 /MWh, JUN-17 up.8 /MWh, and Q3-17 up.7 /MWh. Further out, Q4-17 was up.1 /MWh, YR-18 sideways, and YR-19 down.3 /MWh. 2. THE SPOT MARKET The monthly average system price decreased from March by 1.2 /MWh to 29.2 /MWh. The April spot price delivered 2.9 /MWh above market expectations as of late March; the last quotation of ENOMAPR_17 was at 26.3 /MWh Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Median 1 Average 1 Min 1 16 Max 1 17 Fig I Development in monthly NP system price. 1 Min, max, median and average from period Source: NordPool Daily average Monthly average Fig II Daily NP system spot prices in April. Source: NordPool The monthly average German spot price (Phelix) was 28.9 /MWh in April, down 2.8 /MWh from March. The average April price in the period 1-16 was 35.5 /MWh. The German spot price was lower than the NordPool system price in April (EEX NP system price at -.4 /MWh, down 1.7 /MWh month-on-month). The monthly average PolPX (Poland) spot price was 33.3 /MWh, down.8 /MWh from March. The Polish spot price was higher than the NordPool system price in April (PolPX - NP system price at 4.1 /MWh, up.3 /MWh month-on-month). The highest Nordic area prices in April (Table I) were in Finland (Helsinki) and NO5 (Bergen), averaging at 2.2 and.6 /MWh above the system price. The lowest area prices were in NO4 (Tromsø) and DK1 (Odense), averaging at 4.9 and.9 /MWh below the system price. P.O.Box, NO 216 OSLO 1/5

2 Nordic Market Report April 17 Table I Average spot prices ( /MWh) in April: Average System-price Oslo Kristiansand Trondheim Tromsø Bergen Luleå Sundsvall Base (Mo-Su h: 1-24) Peak (Mo-Fr h: 9-) Off peak (Mo-Fr h: ) Weekend (Sa-Su h: 1-24) Stockholm Malmø Helsinki Odense Copenhagen EEX PolPX Base (Mo-Su h: 1-24) Peak (Mo-Fr h: 9-) Off peak (Mo-Fr h: ) Weekend (Sa-Su h: 1-24) The main fundamental factors influencing the spot market in April were: Reservoir fillings still below normal The reservoir fillings at the end of April were 3.6 TWh below normal;.8 TWh below the March deviation to normal and 8.4 TWh lower than last year s level. The average inflow in April was.2 TWh below normal,.1 TWh lower than in the same period last year. Status [TWh] wms [TWh/52w] Present 16 period Deviation [TWh] Deviation [TWh/w] Fig III Development of Nordic hydro reservoir fillings, status and deviation. 1 Normal = average Source: NVE, Svensk Energi and SYKE Fig IV Development of Nordic inflow, 52 week moving sum and deviation. 1 Normal = average Source: NVE, Svensk Energi and SYKE Temperatures at normal The temperature corrected consumption in the Nordic areas decreased by 97 MW from April 16 to April 17, and decreased 5 MW month-on-month. The average consumption weighted temperature in the Nordic areas was at normal in April, down 1.3 degrees from April last year. Wind power production sideways from March, up from 16 The Swedish wind power production was 198 MW on average in April, down 27 month-on-month and up 49 MW year-on-year. The Danish wind power production was 176 MW on average in April, up 17 MW from March and up MW year-on-year. P.O.Box, NO 216 OSLO 2/5

3 Nordic Market Report April 17 Still high nuclear production The nuclear production in Sweden was 849 MW on average in April, down 35 MW month-on-month. Yearon-year, the Swedish nuclear production increased by 88 MW. Installed capacity in Sweden is approximately 91 MW. In Finland, the average nuclear production was 251 MW, down 27 MW month-on-month, and down 5 MW year-on-year. Installed capacity in Finland is approximately 278 MW. Lower coal forward prices The coal forward prices decreased during April (Fig V). Q3-17 went down 1.1 $/t and Q4-17 went down.9 $/t. Q1-18 was down 1.4 $/t and YR-18 down 1.4 $/t. Price of EUAs (European Union CO2 Allowances) down The price of DEC_17 EUAs decreased by.12 /t from the end of March to the end of April (Fig VI). The average level in April was 4.77 /t. Lower German and Polish spot prices The monthly average German spot price (Phelix) was 28.9 /MWh in April, down 2.8 /MWh from March. Year-on-year, prices increased by 4.7 /MWh. Phelix was higher than the Nordic system price 67.5 % of the hours in April (March at 7. %). In Poland, the monthly average spot price was 33.3 /MWh, down.8 /MWh month-on-month and down 3.2 /MWh year-on-year. The Polish spot price was higher than the Nordic system price 79. % of the hours in April (March at 78. %). Net exports from the Nordics There was a net export of.7 TWh from the Nordic area in April (gross imports: 1. TWh, gross exports 1.7 TWh); up.2 TWh month-on-month and unchanged year-on-year [USD/t] [EUR/t] API#2 3APR17 API#2 28APR17 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr EUA 3APR17 17 Through the month EUA 28APR17 Fig V Development of coal prices in April. (API#2 CIF ARA 6 kcal/kg) Source: EEX Fig VI Snapshots of the European Union CO2 allowance prices in April. Source: Nasdaq OMX Commodities P.O.Box, NO 216 OSLO 3/5

4 Nordic Market Report April THE FORWARD MARKET Nordic forward market prices generally increased during April. Net movements (March 31 sr to April 28 th ) were up 3.9 /MWh for MAY-17, up.8 /MWh for JUN-17, and up.8 /MWh for Q3-17. Further out, Q4-17 went up.3 /MWh, YR-18 up.3 /MWh and YR-19 down.3 /MWh. See figure VIII. The main driving fundamental factors in April seemed to be: Relatively dry weather, reservoir fillings still below normal The weather forecasts turned slightly drier during April. The reservoir fillings at the end of April were 3.6 TWh below normal;.8 TWh below the March deviation to normal and 8.4 TWh lower than last year s level. German forward prices up in general In Germany, MAY-17 went up.9 /MWh, JUN-17 up.8 /MWh, and Q3-17 up.7 /MWh. Further out, Q4-17 was up.1 /MWh, YR-18 sideways, and YR-19 down.3 /MWh. Lower coal forward prices The coal forward prices decreased during April (Fig V). Q3-17 went down 1.1 $/t and Q4-17 went down.9 $/t. Q1-18 was down 1.4 $/t and YR-18 down 1.4 $/t. Price of EUAs (European Union CO2 Allowances) down The price of DEC_17 EUAs decreased by.12 /t from the end of March to the end of April (Fig VI). The average level in April was 4.77 /t. USD weakened against EUR Month-on-month, USD weakened against EUR (EUR/USD 1.9 by end of month, up.2 from March). Yearon-year, USD strengthened against EUR by.5. Figure VII shows snapshots of the Nordic forward curve at three different dates in April. Figure VIII shows the development of the three front quarters and ENOYR-18 during the last year APR17 18APR17 28APR17 1 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Q3_17 Q1_18 Q4_17 CAL_18 Fig VII Snapshots of the forward curve in April. Source: Nasdaq OMX, Reuters Fig VIII Development of some forwards during the last 12 months. Source: Nasdaq OMX P.O.Box, NO 216 OSLO 4/5

5 Nordic Market Report April 17 This report has been prepared by analyst Marius Blomlie,. is owned by Statkraft AS, and is the largest producer of hydroelectric power in Norway. The company is also one of the largest traders on NordPool and Nasdaq OMX Commodities. In addition to its ownership of, Statkraft AS owns shares in a number of other companies involved in the production, transmission and sale of electrical power, in Norway as well as in other European countries. These companies also trade on NordPool and Nasdaq OMX Commodities. P.O.Box, NO 216 OSLO 5/5