due Saturday May 26, 2018, 12:00 noon

Transcription

1 Queens College, CUNY, Department of Computer Science Computational Finance CSCI 365 / 765 Spring 2018 Instructor: Dr. Sateesh Mane c Sateesh R. Mane 2018 Final Spring 2018 due Saturday May 26, 2018, 12:00 noon NOTE: It is the policy of the Computer Science Department to issue a failing grade to any student who either gives or receives help on any test. This is an open-book test. Any problem to which you give two or more (di erent) answers receives the grade of zero automatically. This is a take home exam. Please submit your solution via , as a file attachment, to Sateesh.Mane@qc.cuny.edu. The file name should have either of the formats: StudentId first last CS365 final May2018 StudentId first last CS765 final May2018 Acceptable file types are txt, doc/docx, pdf (also cpp, with text in comment blocks). Send one cpp file with all your code, one docx/pdf/txt file with non-code answers. In all questions where you are asked to submit programming code, programs which display any of the following behaviors will receive an automatic F: 1. Programs which do not compile successfully (compiler warnings which are not fatal are excluded, e.g. use of deprecated features). 2. Array out of bounds, dereferencing of uninitialized variables (including null pointers). 3. Operations which yield NAN or infinity, e.g. divide by zero, square root of negative number, etc. Infinite loops. 4. Programs which do NOT implement the public interface stated in the question. In addition, note the following: 1. Programs which compile and run successfully but have memory leaks will receive a poor grade (but not F). 2. All debugging and/or output statements (e.g. cout or printf) will be commented out. 3. Program performance will be tested solely on function return values and the values of output variable(s) in the function arguments. 4. In other words, program performance will be tested solely via the public interface presented to the calling application. (I will write the calling application.) 1

2 1 Question 1 (no code) You do NOT need to submit programming code for this question. The time today is t 0 = 0. The par yields and bootstrapped spot rates of the yield curve are tabulated below. t y (%) r (%) You are given a newly issued bond with a maturity of T = 2 years and face value F = 100. The bond pays 8 coupons, with a quarterly frequency at times t i =0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75 and 2.0, where i =1,...,8. The amounts of the annualized coupon rates are as follows: 1. The (annualized) coupon rates are the 8 digits of your student id. 2. For example if your student id is , the coupons are (2, 3, 0, 5, 4, 6, 1, 7). 3. It is possible for some coupon amounts to be zero. 4. Recall there is a factor of 4 for quarterly coupons. 5. Hence in this case the bond fair value B is, with discount factors d ti, B = 2 4 d d d d d d d F + 7 d (1.1) The discount factors d ti are obtained via cfr (constant forward rate) interpolation of the yield curve. Calculate the fair value of the bond in eq. (1.1). Call the answer B FV. State your answer to 2 decimal places. Calculate the yield y of the bond in eq. (1.1), if the bond market price is B FV. Call the answer y 1. State the value of y 1 (in percent) to 2 decimal places. Recall for quarterly coupons the bond fair value is given by apple X c i /4 F B FV = ( y)4t i ( (1.2) 4y)8 Define a constant coupon, say c. Find the value of c such that B FV = c 4 d c 4 d c 4 d c 4 d c 4 d c 4 d c 4 d State the value of c to 2 decimal places. i F + c d 2.0. (1.3) 4 2

3 2 Question 2 (no code) 2.1 Case 1 In this question, the stock does not pay dividends. The prices of an American call C and American put P with the same strike K and expiration T (and on the same stock S) satisfy the following arbitrage bounds C P S K, C P apple S PV(K). (2.1) Suppose that at time t 0 (today), S 0 = 100.5, K = 100 and e r(t t 0) =0.99. All symbols have their usual meanings. An American call and put both trade today at C = P = 10. Formulate an arbitrage strategy to take advantage of the above mispricing. 2.2 Case 2 In this question, the stock does not pay dividends. The prices of two American calls C 1 and C 2 with strikes K 1 and K 2, respectively (and K 1 < K 2 ), with the same expiration T (and on the same stock S) satisfy the following arbitrage inequality C 1 C 2 apple K 2 K 1. (2.2) Suppose that at time t 0 (today), S 0 = 100.5, K 1 = 100, K 2 = 105 and e r(t t 0) =0.99. All symbols have their usual meanings. The American calls have prices today of C 1 = 11 and C 2 = 5. Formulate an arbitrage strategy to take advantage of the above mispricing. 2.3 Case 3 In this question, the stock does not pay dividends. The prices of two American puts P 1 and P 2 with strikes K 1 and K 2, respectively (and K 1 < K 2 ), with the same expiration T (and on the same stock S) satisfy the following arbitrage inequality P 2 P 1 apple K 2 K 1. (2.3) Suppose that at time t 0 (today), S 0 = 100.5, K 1 = 100, K 2 = 105 and e r(t t 0) =0.99. All symbols have their usual meanings. The American puts have prices today of P 1 = 5 and P 2 = 11. Formulate an arbitrage strategy to take advantage of the above mispricing. 3

4 3 Question 3 (no code) A butterfly spread consists of three options on the same stock. All three options have the same expiration time T. The options have strike prices K 1, K 2 and K 3, which are are equally spaced. Hence K 2 is located at the midpoint of K 1 and K 3,soK 2 =(K 1 + K 3 )/2. A butterfly spread can be created using three call options or three put options. The spread consists of long one option at K 1, short two options at K 2, long one option at K European option butterfly spreads Suppose the market price of a stock is S at the current time t. dividends. The interest rate is r>0 (a constant). The stock does not pay For a European call and put c and p with the same strike K and expiration T, the put-call parity relation in this case is c p = S Ke r(t t). (3.1) Let c i and p i, i =1, 2, 3, be the values of European calls and puts with strikes K 1, K 2 and K 3,whereK 2 =(K 1 + K 3 )/2. Use eq. (3.1) to prove the following relation: c 1 2c 2 + c 3 = p 1 2p 2 + p 3. (3.2) The values of a European call butterfly spread and a European put butterfly spread are equal. The corresponding relation is not necessarily true for American options. 4

5 3.2 American calls A butterfly spread consists of three American calls C 1, C 2 and C 3,withstrikesK 1, K 2 and K 3, as described above. The butterfly spread consists long C 1, short 2 C 2, long C 3 : B call (S, t) =C 1 2C 2 + C 3. (3.3) Draw a graph of the intrinsic value of the butterfly spread B call (S, t). Show that B call (S, t) < 0 if C 2 (S, t) > C 1(S, t)+c 3 (S, t) 2 Formulate an arbitrage trade if C 2 (S, t) > (C 1 (S, t)+c 3 (S, t))/2.. (3.4) Therefore deduce the following inequality must be true at any time t apple T : C 2 (S, t) apple C 1(S, t)+c 3 (S, t) 2. (3.5) The mathematical expression is that the value of a call option is a convex function of the strike. 3.3 American puts A butterfly spread consists of three American puts P 1, P 2 and P 3,withstrikesK 1, K 2 and K 3, as described above. The butterfly spread consists long P 1, short 2 P 2, long P 3 : B put (S, t) =P 1 2P 2 + P 3. (3.6) Draw a graph of the intrinsic value of the butterfly spread B put (S, t). Show that B put (S, t) < 0 if P 2 (S, t) > P 1(S, t)+p 3 (P, t) 2 Formulate an arbitrage trade if P 2 (S, t) > (P 1 (S, t)+p 3 (S, t))/2.. (3.7) Therefore deduce the following inequality must be true at any time t apple T : P 2 (S, t) apple P 1(S, t)+p 3 (S, t) 2. (3.8) The mathematical expression is that the value of a put option is a convex function of the strike. 5

6 4 Question 4 (submit code) In this question we shall employ the classes BinomialTree and Derivative, etc.introduced in Homework 9. Write a class Option which inherits from Derivative. 1. The option has a strike K and expiration T. 2. The option can be a put/call (bool iscall). 3. The option can be American/European (bool isamerican). 4. Make all the data members public so I can set them in my calling application. Submit your code for all of the above classes (including the Database class, etc. Denote the fair values of a European call and put option by c and p, respectively. Denote the fair values of an American call and put option by C and P,respectively. Your code will be tested by a calling application with random input values for (S 0,K,r,q,,T,t 0 ). 1. The option fair values will be calculated using the BinomialTree class. 2. Your code will be tested to see if it satisfies put call parity for European options (with a tolerance of 10 6 ): (c p) (Se q(t t 0) Ke r(t t 0) ) apple (4.1) 3. Your code will be tested to see if it satisfies the following inequalities for American options (with a tolerance of 10 6 ): C P (Se q(t t 0) K) 10 6, C P apple (S Ke r(t t 0) ) (4.2) 4. Other inequalities will also be checked: 0 apple c apple Se q(t t0) , 0 apple C apple S , 0 apple p apple Ke r(t t0) , 0 apple P apple K (4.3) 5. I may perform other tests. Your code must pass all the rational option pricing inequalities in Lecture 7 (for a stock with a continuous dividend yield). 6. There will be no tests with discrete dividends. 6

7 5 Question 5 (submit code) A straddle is an option spread with expiration time T and strike price K and a terminal payo of S T K. A European straddle is therefore equal to a long European call plus a long European put, both with the same expiration T and the same strike K. An American straddle can be exercised at any time t 0 apple t apple T, and pays S t K if exercised. An American straddle is therefore cheaper than a long American call plus a long American put, both with the same expiration T and the same strike K. This is because the American options can be exercised individually, whereas when the straddle is exercised, the entire package terminates. Write a class Straddle which inherits from Derivative. 1. The straddle has a strike K and expiration T. 2. The straddle can be American/European (bool isamerican). 3. Make all the data members public so I can set them in my calling application. Your code will be tested by a calling application with random input values for (S 0,K,r,q,,T,t 0 ). 1. The fair value of a straddle will be calculated using the BinomialTree class. 2. Denote the fair value of a straddle by Z. 3. Your code for the fair value of a European straddle will be tested to see if it satisfies the following equality (with a tolerance of 10 6 ): Z Eur (c + p) apple (5.1) 4. Your code for the fair value of an American straddle will be tested to see if it satisfies the following inequalities (with a tolerance of 10 6 ): Z Am S 0 K 10 6, Z Am apple (C + P ) (5.2) 7

8 6 Question 6 (submit code) A binary option (also known as a digital option) is an option with expiration time T and strike price K and the following terminal payo : 1. A binary call option pays $1 if S T K and zero otherwise. 2. A binary put option pays $1 if S T <K and zero otherwise. Write a class BinaryOption which inherits from Derivative. We shall consider only European binary call options below so we can ignore the early exercise valuation tests. You are given the following input values: S 0 = 90, K = 100, q =0.02, T = 1, t 0 = 0. Set the risk free rate to the value of y 1 from Question 1. (Note that r is a decimal value, so for example if y 1 =5.12% then set r = ) r = y 1 (decimal). (6.1) There are also Black Scholes Merton formulas for the fair values of binary options c bin = e r(t t 0) N(d 2 ), p bin = e r(t t 0) N( d 2 ). (6.2) Write functions to compute the formulas in eq. (6.2). Submit you code as part of your solution to this question. Use n = 1000 steps in the binomial model. Fill the following table. c binomial binary p binomial binary c BSM binary p BSM binary 0.1 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. 3d.p. Plot a graph of the binary call option fair value as a function of the volatility, using (i) the binomial model and (ii) the Black Scholes Merton formulas in eq. (6.2), for 0.01 apple apple 1.0 in steps of

9 Plot a graph of the binary put option fair value as a function of the volatility, using (i) the binomial model and (ii) the Black Scholes Merton formulas in eq. (6.2), for 0.01 apple apple 1.0 in steps of Do not be concerned if the graphs look choppy (not smooth curves) for the binomial model. If you have done your work correctly, the binary option fair values will NOT be monotonic functions of the volatility. The fair value of the binary call will exhibit a peak and the fair value of the binary put will exhibit a dip. Because of the peak/dip, implied volatility is not a useful concept for binary options. For a given market price, there can be two solutions for the implied volatility, i.e. not a unique value. 9

10 7 Question 7 (submit code) This question will carry more weight than the others, maybe double weight. A convertible bond is an equity derivative with the following characteristics. 1. It has a strike K and expiration T and can be American or European. 2. The terminal payo is 3. This is similar to the payo in Midterm 2 Question 6(a). terminal payo = max(s T,K). (7.1) 4. What this means is that if S T K at expiration, the holder receives one share of stock and if S T <K at expiration, the holder receives cash in the amount K. 5. Prior to expiration, if a convertible bond is exercised, the intrisic value at time t is S t : intrinsic value at time t = S t. (7.2) 6. We shall add one more feature, essentially a knockout barrier. 7. Many convertible bonds are callable. 8. This means that there is a threshold B and if S B at any time, the convertible bond terminates. The value of the convertible bond if called in this way is V = S. 9. Hence in addition to early exercise, we add one more feature to the valuation tests, which is V = S t if S t B for t 0 apple t<t. In more detail, a convertible bond is intermediate between a bond and an option. 1. A convertible bond also pays coupons. 2. We shall ignore coupons and consider only a zero coupon convertible bond. 3. Zero coupon convertible bonds do exist. Prove that V PV(K) for a zero coupon convertible bond. Convertible bonds are issued by companies, and when an investor exercises a convertible bond, the company prints new shares of stock and delivers them to the investor. In that sense, convertible bonds are di erent from exchange listed options and are more similar to warrants. Convertible bonds usually have much longer expiration times than exchange listed options, extending many years (30 years is not uncommon). One reason investors buy convertible bonds is because they can perform gamma trading with a longer time horizon than is possible with exchange listed options. In this question, we shall perform gamma trading with a convertible bond. See next page. 10

11 Write a class ConvertibleBond which inherits from Derivative. In this question, we shall employ a callable American convertible bond. Denote the fair value of the convertible bond by U. Denote the market price of the convertible bond by M. You are given the following inputs: K = 100, B = 130, T =5.0, r =0.05 and q = 0. Use n = 1000 steps in the binomial model. A graph of the fair value of a convertible bond with the above parameters in displayed in Fig. 1. The fair value was calculated with a volatility of = Plot a graph of the fair value of a convertible bond with the above parameters using a volatility of =0.5. If you have done your work correctly, the fair value will be higher than that displayed in Fig. 1. (Except V = S when S B and also at S = 0.) (Bonus) Explain why the fair value at S! 0 is the same in both graphs, independent of the value of the volatility. 150 Fair Value of Convertible Bond call threshold S Figure 1: Graph of the fair value of a convertible bond. The intrinsic value is shown as a dashed line. The call threshold is also indicated. 11

12 We require two more values. 1. Take the first 4 digits of your student id. Define: S 1 = first 4 digits of your student id (7.3) 2. Take the last 4 digits of your student id. Define (note the minus sign): S 2 = last 4 digits of your student id (7.4) 3. For example if your student id is , then S 1 =0.2305, S 2 = (7.5) 4. Note that S 2 is negative. See next page. 12

13 We shall perform gamma trading using a convertible bond. 1. Day 0: (a) The time is t 0 = 0. (b) The stock price is S 0 = 60. (c) The convertible bond market price is M 0 = 90. (d) Calculate the implied volatility of the convertible bond (4 decimal places). (e) Denote the answer by 0. (f) Calculate the Delta of the convertible bond (4 decimal places) using a finite di erence numerical derivative as follows. The volatility is = 0. 0 = U(S 0 + 1) U(S 0 1) 2 (t 0 =0, = 0 ). (7.6) (g) We start trading with zero cash and zero stock and options. (h) We create a portfolio of long one convertible bond U and short sale of 0 shares of stock. (i) The money in the bank on day 0 is therefore Money 0 = 0 S 0 M 0. (7.7) (j) Calculate the value of Money 0 to 2 decimal places. (It may be negative.) (k) See next page. 13

14 2. Day 1: (a) The time is t 0 =0.01. (b) The stock price has changed to: S 1 = S 0 + S 1. (7.8) (c) The convertible bond market price has changed to: M 1 = (7.9) (d) Calculate the implied volatility of the convertible bond (4 decimal places). (e) Denote the answer by 1. (f) Calculate the Delta of the convertible bond (4 decimal places) using a finite di erence numerical derivative as follows. The volatility is = 1. 1 = U(S 1 + 1) U(S 1 1) 2 (t 0 =0.01, = 1 ). (7.10) (g) We rebalance the hedge to short 1 shares of stock. (h) Hence we sell 1 0 shares of stock, at the new stock price S 1. (i) The money in the bank on day 1 is therefore: Money 1 = Money 0 +( 1 0)S 1. (7.11) (j) Calculate the value of Money 1 to 2 decimal places. (k) The value of Money 1 may be greater or less that Money 0,itwillbedi erent for each of you. (l) See next page. 14

15 3. Day 2: (a) The time is t 0 =0.02. (b) The stock price has changed to: S 2 = S 1 + S 2. (7.12) (c) Note that this is a negative change in the stock price. (d) The convertible bond market price has changed to: M 2 = (7.13) (e) Calculate the implied volatility of the convertible bond (4 decimal places). (f) Denote the answer by 2. (g) Calculate the Delta of the convertible bond (4 decimal places) using a finite di erence numerical derivative as follows. The volatility is = 2. 2 = U(S 2 + 1) U(S 2 1) 2 (t 0 =0.02, = 2 ). (7.14) (h) We rebalance the hedge to short 2 shares of stock. (i) Hence we sell 2 1 shares of stock, at the new stock price S 2. (j) (Note that 2 1 is a negative number, so we are really buying stock at the new stock price S 2. We let the mathematics take care of the minus signs.) (k) The money in the bank on day 2 is therefore: Money 2 = Money 1 +( 2 1)S 2. (7.15) (l) Calculate the value of Money 2 to 2 decimal places. (m) Once again, the value of Money 2 may be greater or less than Money 1. (n) See next page. 15

16 We close out our gamma trading portfolio at the end of day We sell our convertible bond at the price M We buy 2 shares of stock at the stock price S 2 to close out our short stock position. 3. Hence there is only cash in the bank. The convertible bond and the stock are gone. 4. Your total profit is therefore: Profit = Money 2 + M 2 2 S 2. (7.16) 5. Calculate the value of the profit to 2 decimal places. 6. This is your profit from gamma trading. 7. If you have done your work correctly, you should obtain a positive profit. 8. Note that I neglected interest rate compounding to calculate the profit/loss. For an expiration time of 5 years and a trading interval of two days, the e ects of interest rate compounding are negligible and merely make the calculations complicated. 9. Notice that the stock price was always S<K, yet the gamma trading strategy yielded a profit. 10. This is what options traders do. 11. Options traders buy and sell volatility. 12. Options traders do not care if an option (or convertible bond) is out of the money its whole life. 16