Fourth Quarter Results 2002

Transcription

1 Fourth Quarter Results 22 Zurich, 18th February 23 Peter Wuffli, President Mark Branson, Chief Communication Officer

2 Caution regarding forward-looking statements This communication contains statements that constitute forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements relating to the implementation of strategic initiatives, such as the implementation of the new European wealth management strategy, expansion of our corporate finance presence in the US and worldwide, the development of UBS Warburg's new energy trading operations, and other statements relating to our future business development and economic performance. While these forward-looking statements represent our judgments and future expectations concerning the development of our business, a number of risks, uncertainties and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from our expectations. These factors include, but are not limited to, (1) general market, macro-economic, governmental and regulatory trends, (2) movements in local and international securities markets, currency exchange rates and interest rates, (3) competitive pressures, (4) technological developments, (5) changes in the financial position or credit-worthiness of our customers, obligors and counterparties and developments in the markets in which they operate, (6) legislative developments, (7) management changes and changes to our business group structure in 21 and 22 and (8) other key factors that we have indicated could adversely affect our business and financial performance which are contained in other parts of this document and in our past and future filings and reports, including those filed with the SEC. More detailed information out those factors is set forth elsewhere in this document and in documents furnished by UBS and filings made by UBS with the SEC, including UBS s Annual Report on Form 2-F for the year ended 31 December 21. UBS is not under any obligation to (and expressly disclaims any such obligations to) update or alter its forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

3 Economic cycles Global GDP y-on-y change % Source: Oxford Economic Forecast Corporate bond default ratio 4 3 % Source: S&P Ratings Direct research P&L Asset Quality Capital

4 Group results

5 Significant financial events (CHFm) 4Q2 FY22 Income Gain on disposal of Hyposwiss 155 Gain on disposal of Klinik Hirslanden Expenses Write-down of PaineWebber brand (1,234) (1,234) Tax effect Total (893) (768) No significant financial events in 21 P&L Asset Quality Capital

6 Net profit Adjusted for significant financial events CHF m Avg 1999 Avg 2 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Net profit after tax Net profit after tax before goodwill P&L Asset Quality Capital

7 Profitility Full Year 22 FY2 ( CHFm) FY2 FY1 vs FY1 Operating income 34,121 37,114 (8)% Operating expenses 29,577 3,396 (3)% Net profit (reported) 3,535 4,973 (29)% Net profit (adjusted) 1 5,529 6,296 (12)% Note: 1 Adjusted for SFE's and excluding the amortization of goodwill and other intangible assets P&L Asset Quality Capital

8 Operating business unit performance 1 = change from % 48% CHF m 3 75% 2-19% n/m 1-1 PB BBS UBS Global AM CIC UBS Cap UBS PW 2 n/m Notes: 1 Adjusted for SFE's and excluding the amortization of goodwill and other intangible assets 2 Before acquisition costs P&L Asset Quality Capital

9 Performance against targets ROE 1,2 Basic EPS 1 25% 2. 2% 15% 1%! ; %.5 % 8% 6% 4% 2% M1 6M1 9M1 12M1 3M2 6M2 9M2 12M2 Cost / Income 1 Private client net new money 3,4,5 % Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1 Excludes the amortization of goodwill and other intangible assets and adjusted for significant financial events 2 Year to date, annualized 3 Private Banking and UBS PaineWebber 4 Excludes interest and dividend income 5 Private Banking net new money is calculated based on the new structure for UBS Wealth Management & Business Banking effective 1 July 22. P&L.! f à Z ; Avg99 Avg 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Avg99 Avg 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Asset Quality Capital

10 assets Quarter-on-Quarter UBS WM&BB UBS Global AM UBS W UBS PW (CHFbn) PB BBS Inst. Wholesale Total Total opening ,7 Net new money 3.1 (2.7) 2.4 (.2) Performance, currency & transfers (16) 6 (2) (1) (19) (42) Closing ,37 Year-on-Year 3, 2,5 CHF bn 2, 1,5 1, 5 1/1/2 Net new money Divestment Performance FX effects 31/12/2 P&L Asset Quality Capital

11 Market movements 4Q2 15% 1% 5% % SMI DJIA FTSE 1 DJ Euro Stoxx MSCI World Bond Index NASDAQ CHF/USD CHF/EUR -5% -1% FY 22 DJIA FT-SE 1 SMI DJ Euro Stoxx MSCI World Bond Index NASDAQ CHF/USD CHF/EUR 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% -3% -35% -4% P&L Asset Quality Capital

12 Revenue trends 12, 1, 8, CHF m 6, 4, 2, -2, 99Avg Avg 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Credit loss Net income from interest margin activities Other Net fee & commission income Net income from trading activities P&L Asset Quality Capital

13 Group cost trends 1, 8, 6, CHF m 4, 2, 99Avg Avg 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Personnel Depreciation General & administrative Amortization of Goodwill & other intangible assets P&L Asset Quality Capital

14 Actual credit loss expense Business Banking Switzerland CHF m 2 Corporate & Institutional Clients CHF m Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Actual Credit Loss Actual Credit Loss Actuarial Expected Credit Loss Actuarial Expected Credit Loss P&L Asset Quality Capital

15 Group loan portfolio CHF bn 2 3 % Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec UBS WM&BB C&IC UBS PaineWebber NPL% P&L Asset Quality Capital

16 Share buyback & Tier 1 ratio Shares (m) % 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Tier 1 ratio 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 2 Program 1 21 Program st Program nd Program Tier 1 Ratio % Note: 1) Share repurchase programs run for 12 months from early March 2) Began 9 October, 22 and runs until 5 March, 23 P&L Asset Quality Capital

17 Cumulative share buyback effect on EPS 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 P&L Asset Quality Capital

18 Total payout to shareholders Payout as % of adjusted net profit 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Note: Dividends and par value reductions based on year for which payment was made P&L Asset Quality Capital

19 Business unit results

20 Continued strong, stle gross margin bps 4 2 Avg99 Avg 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Transactional fees Recurring fees Other PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

21 Net new money CHF bn Avg 99 Avg 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2-4 Private Banking - Swiss Clients European Wealth Management Initiative Private Banking - International Clients (excluding EWMI) Net outflow from Italian Tax Amnesty PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

22 New structure within UBS Group UBS Private Banking UBS Global Asset Management Corporate Center Armand von Ernst GAM Bank Ehinger New holding company Ferrier Lullin Banco di Lugano Cantrade

23 Continued strong profitility 5 1,2 4 1, Net profit before tax (CHF m) Operating expenses (CHF m) Avg99 Avg 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Net profit before tax Total operating expenses PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

24 Net new money CHF billion Institutional Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Wholesale intermediary CHF billion Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Total institutional Money Market Non-Money Market PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

25 UBS Funds outperformance % of funds outperforming benchmarks 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Asset Allocation Funds Bond Funds Equity Funds Money Market Funds Total Over 3 years Over 5 years PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

26 CIC: continued cost control Operating expenses 3,5 3, 2,5 CHF m 2, 1,5 1, 5 99Avg Avg 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Total operating expenses Research-related & Warburg Energy expenses PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

27 Strong performance in a difficult environment FI/FX Revenues Global fee pool 25 Credit default swaps 6% CHF m UBS market share % 5% 4% -5 Av99 Av Q11 Q21 Q31 Q41 Q12 Q22 Q32 Q42 3% Global Americas Europe/ Asia Pacific Secondary equity commissions rankings UBS market share % 1st 4th 1th 13.9% 8.9% 3.3% 12.7% 8.% 3.1% 12.3% 7.7% 3.2% 12.1% 7.7% 4.2% 14.7% 1.7% 6.9% 14.4% 1.4% 6.9% 16.3% 11.3% 7.1% 14.7% 1.4% 7.2% 15.1% 1.7% 7.6% 15.% 1.5% 7.3% 15.4% 1.3% 6.9% 1st 2nd 7th Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q11 Q21 Q31 Q41 Q12 Q22 Q32 Non US Securities Global Securities US Securities PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

28 UBS Capital - relative value creation 15% 1% 5% % 1H99 2H99 1H 2H 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2-5% -1% -15% PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

29 Improving profitility CHF USD % 2 9% millions % 1 5 8% 5 75% 7% 4Q 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 Note: 1) Before acquisition costs, and pre-research related expenses Performance before tax 1 Cost/Income ratio 1 (%) CHF USD PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

30 Net new money 12 1 CHF bn Avg 99 Avg 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 PB Global BBS UBS- W UBS-PW AM

31 Market optimism Investor optimism index US EU-5 Most important threat to global stock markets Major terrorist attacks prolonged economic downturn Significant appreciation of the dollar Financial crisis in Japan Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3-5 War against Iraq No opinion Expected time before US recovery 8% European economy months 1 year 2 years 2 years+ 6% moderate recovery 4% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: Index of Investor Optimism 2% % continued weakness worsened situation strong recovery Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 22 23

32 Fourth Quarter Results 22 Zurich, 18th February 23 Peter Wuffli, President Mark Branson, Chief Communication Officer