American Express. Financial Community Meeting. Kenneth I. Chenault Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Transcription

1 American Express Financial Community Meeting Kenneth I. Chenault Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Daniel T. Henry Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer February 4, 2009

2 Agenda 2008 Financial Performance Funding and Liquidity Update Capital and Profitability Selectively Investing for Growth Question and Answer 2

3 Full Year and 2008 Quarterly Financial Performance Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4' Total Revenues Net of Interest Expense 1 12% 11% 13% 9% 3% (11%) 3% Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations 1,2 22% 18% (1%) (34%) (21%) (71%) (30%) ROE 35% 37% 36% 31% 28% 22% 22% 1. Growth rates are restated to reflect AEIDC activities as discontinued operations as reported in the Company s 9/12/08 8-K filing. 2. EPS growth on a net income basis was 1% in 2006, 12% in 2007, (32%) in 2008, (2%) in Q1'08, (36%) in Q2'08, (22%) in Q3'08 and (79%) in Q4'08. 3

4 Full Year and 2008 Quarterly Metric Trends Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4' Billed Business* 16% 15% 14% 12% 8% (10%) 6% Total Cards In Force 10% 11% 10% 10% 9% 7% 7% Avg. Basic Cardmember Spending** 7% 8% 6% 5% 1% (14%) (1%) Mgd. Cardmember Loans*** 17% 22% 19% 12% 5% (7%) (7%) Credit Performance *Card billed business includes activities (including cash advances) related to proprietary cards, cards issued under network partnership agreements, and certain insurance fees charged on proprietary cards. **Computed from proprietary card activities only. ***Managed basis includes owned and securitized loans. On a GAAP basis, owned loan growth was 31% in 2006, 26% in 2007, (22%) in 2008, 17% in Q1'08, 3% in Q2'08, (9%) in Q3'08 and (22%) in Q4'08. 4

5 AXP WW Billings Growth Reported % increase/(decrease) vs. prior year: 15% 15% 16% 16% 14% 12% 8% (10%) Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Card billed business includes activities (including cash advances) related to proprietary cards, cards issued under network partnership agreements, and certain insurance fees charged on proprietary cards. 5

6 AXP WW Billings Growth FX Adjusted % increase/(decrease) vs. prior year: US International (fx adjusted)* 13% 13% 14% 14% 13% 12% 15% 16% 14% 9% 7% 4% 3% (8%) Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Card billed business includes activities (including cash advances) related to proprietary cards, cards issued under network partnership agreements, and certain insurance fees charged on proprietary cards. *Fx adjusted assumes current period foreign exchange rates apply to prior period. 6

7 Q4'08 WW Spending by Industry % increase/(decrease) versus prior year: Retail Other* Restaurant Airlines Lodging Total # of Transactions 2% 1% (2%) (8%) Transaction size (10%) (10%) (16%) (8%) (11%) Total spending (8%) 1% (9%) (18%) (16%) (10%) Source: Global Merchant Services discount billed business. Excludes international GNS volumes acquired by third-party merchant acquirers. *Includes Healthcare, Professional/Financial Services, Education, Communication and Government. 7

8 US Consumer Non-Discretionary vs. Discretionary Spending Spending Growth FY'07 FY'08 25% 20% 15% Non-Discretionary* 14.2% 7.9% 10% 5% 0% (5%) (10%) (15%) (20%) (25%) Discretionary** 9.0% (6.3%) Jan'07 Mar'07 May'07 Jul'07 Sep'07 Nov'07 Jan'08 Mar'08 May'08 Jul '08 Sep'08 Nov'08 *Non-discretionary consists of spending in oil, supermarket and warehouse. **Discretionary consists of spending in department store, electronics, restaurant, fitness and wellness, fashion, lodging, airline, entertainment, home improvement, home furnishing and foreign (outbound) spend. 8

9 2008 Relative Performance Total Billed Business ($B) $683 $436 $361 $244 $103 $92 Growth vs. PY AXP Citi JPMorgan* Bank of America** 6% 0% 2% (3%) Cap One*** (3%) Discover 2% *Excludes the impact of the Washington Mutual acquisition. Including Washington Mutual, billings of $369B grew 4%. **Credit Card, includes US consumer and foreign credit card. ***US Card. Fiscal year ends November 30. US Card. Billed business is credit card sales volume; disclosed credit card volume was $106B and declined 1%. 9

10 Q4'08 US Billed Business Growth % increase/(decrease) vs. prior year: (2%) (8%) (8%) (11%) (15%) (17%) AXP Discover* JPMorgan** Cap One Citi*** Bank of America *Fiscal year and Q4 end November 30. Billed business is credit card sales volume; disclosed credit card volume declined 3%. **Excludes the impact of the Washington Mutual acquisition. Including Washington Mutual, billed business grew 1%. ***Citi North America. Credit card, includes US consumer and foreign credit card. 10

11 AXP Share of US Purchase Volume 22.2% 23.0% 23.7% 19.9% 20.6% 19.9% 19.5% 20.4% 21.2% General Purpose Charge and Credit* Source: The Nilson Report. *Excludes cash advances. 11

12 2008 Relative Performance $683 Total Billed Business ($B) $191 Total Managed Loans $182 $162 ($B) $436 $361 $244 $72 $71 $50 $103 $92 Growth vs. PY AXP Citi JPMorgan* Bank of America** 6% 0% 2% (3%) Cap One*** (3%) Discover 2% Growth vs. PY Citi Bank of America** JPMorgan* AXP Cap One*** Discover *Excludes the impact of the Washington Mutual acquisition. Including Washington Mutual, billings of $369B grew 4% and loans of $190B grew 21%.**Credit Card, includes US consumer and foreign credit card. ***US Card. Fiscal year ends November 30. US Card. Billed business is credit card sales volume; disclosed credit card volume was $106B and declined 1%. Average Loans. On a GAAP basis, owned loans were $42B and decreased 22%. (2%) (1%) 3% (7%) 2% 4% 12

13 AXP Lending Managed Net Write-off Rates versus Competitors 5.7% 6.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 7.9% 7.1% 7.2% 7.1% 6.1% 6.4% 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% AXP* JPMorgan** Discover*** Cap One Bank of America Citi Q4'07 Q3'08 Q4'08 *See Annex 1 for GAAP basis. **Excludes the impact of the Washington Mutual acquisition. Including Washington Mutual, Q3 08 and Q4 08 rates were 5.0% and 5.6%, respectively. ***Fiscal year and Q4 end November 30. US Card. US Card. Credit Card, includes US consumer and foreign credit card. 13

14 Q4'08 US Billed Business Growth % increase/(decrease) vs. prior year: (2%) (8%) (8%) (11%) (15%) (17%) AXP Discover* JPMorgan** Cap One Citi*** Bank of America *Fiscal year and Q4 end November 30. Billed business is credit card sales volume; disclosed credit card volume declined 3%. **Excludes the impact of the Washington Mutual acquisition. Including Washington Mutual, billed business grew 1%. ***Citi North America. Credit card, includes US consumer and foreign credit card. 14

15 Q4'08 US Billed Business Growth vs. Managed Loan Growth % increase/(decrease) vs. prior year: Managed Loans (2%) (5%) (8%) (8%) (11%) (15%) (17%) AXP* Discover** JPMorgan*** Cap One Citi Bank of America *On a GAAP basis, owned loans declined 24%. **Fiscal year and Q4 end November 30. Billed business is credit card sales volume; disclosed credit card volume declined 3%. ***Excludes the impact of the Washington Mutual acquisition. Including Washington Mutual, billed business grew 1%. Citi North America. Credit card, includes US consumer and foreign credit card. 15

16 Q4'08 US Billed Business Growth vs. Managed Loan Growth % increase/(decrease) vs. prior year: 4% 3% 2% Managed Loans (5%) (2%) (4%) (1%) (8%) (8%) (11%) (15%) (17%) AXP* Discover** JPMorgan*** Cap One Citi Bank of America *On a GAAP basis, owned loans declined 24%. **Fiscal year and Q4 end November 30. Billed business is credit card sales volume; disclosed credit card volume declined 3%. ***Excludes the impact of the Washington Mutual acquisition. Billed business and loan growth including Washington Mutual were 1% and 21%, respectively. Citi North America. Credit card, includes US consumer and foreign credit card. 16

17 AXP Lending Managed 30 Day Past Due Rates versus Competitors 6.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.4% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.8% 5.5% 5.9% 2.8% AXP* JPMorgan** Discover*** Cap One Bank of America Q4'07 Q3'08 Q4'08 *See Annex 1 for GAAP basis. **Excludes the impact of the Washington Mutual acquisition. Including Washington Mutual, Q3 08 and Q4 08 rates were 3.9% and 5.0%, respectively. ***Fiscal year and Q4 end November 30. US Card. US Card. Credit Card, includes US consumer and foreign credit card. 17

18 Agenda 2008 Financial Performance Funding and Liquidity Update Capital and Profitability Selectively Investing for Growth Question and Answer 18

19 Management Actions Restructuring Bank Holding Company Capital Purchase Program 19

20 2008 Achievements Settled Mastercard litigation Expanded Delta partnership Launched valuable international partnerships Grew Business-to-Business opportunity Maintained premium provider positioning 20

21 Agenda 2008 Financial Performance Funding and Liquidity Update Capital and Profitability Selectively Investing for Growth Question and Answer 21

22 2009 Priorities Invest Selectively Stay Profitable Stay Liquid 22

23 Agenda 2008 Financial Performance Funding and Liquidity Update Capital and Profitability Selectively Investing for Growth Question and Answer 23

24 Pre-Credit Market Crisis: Funding and Liquidity Profile Balance Sheet Cash & Liquidity Portfolio Short-Term Debt Accounts Receivable + Cardmember Loans Unsecured Term Debt ABS Other Liabilities / Equity Cash Contingent Sources: ABS, Bank Facilities 1 week 12 months 24

25 Q3'08: Funding and Liquidity Profile Balance Sheet Cash & Liquidity Portfolio (Liquidity War Chest) Short-Term Debt Accounts Receivable + Cardmember Loans Unsecured Term Debt ABS Other Liabilities / Equity LWC Contingent Sources: Conduit, Discount Window, Bank Facilities 1.5 months 12 months 25

26 Funding and Liquidity Sources $ in Billions Beginning Cash Balance September 30, 2008 $16 Increased Retail CD and Sweep Deposits 9 TLGP Issuance 6 Net Reduction of Short-Term Debt / Institutional Deposits (10) Ending Cash Balance December 31, 2008 $21 Operating Cash (4) Short-Term Debt Outstanding (9) Liquidity Investment Portfolio 5 Excess Cash and Readily Marketable Securities December 31, 2008 $13* *Does not reflect the $3.4 billion of Capital Purchase Program (CPP) proceeds received January 9,

27 Year End '08: Funding and Liquidity Profile Balance Sheet Liquidity War Chest Excess Cash and Readily Marketable Securities Short-Term Debt Retail Deposits and TLGP Accounts Receivable + Cardmember Loans Unsecured Term Debt ABS Other Liabilities / Equity Liquidity War Chest + Excess Cash and Readily Marketable Securities Contingent Sources > 12 months 27

28 2009 Funding Overview $ in Billions Term Maturities $20 CM Loan & Receivable Growth / (Contraction) Funding Sources Excess Cash with CPP proceeds $16 Unsecured TLGP $7 Deposits + Additional Sources ABS Unsecured non-tlgp Market-driven Market-driven Contingent Sources Discount Window Function of A/R Bank Facilities $9 Conduit* $5 *Expires in 2009, unless facility is renewed. 28

29 Remaining Funding and Liquidity Sources Retail Deposit Programs Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP) Commercial Paper ABS Unsecured Term Debt Federal TAF / Discount Window Committed Bank Lines 29

30 Investment of Excess Cash Cash and Readily Marketable Securities Liquidity of Investments Money Market US Treasury Notes US Agency Notes TLGP Bonds Investment Yield Additional annual net interest cost ~$ million pre-tax* *Based upon current market interest rate assumptions and mix of investments. 30

31 Brokered Retail Deposit Programs $ in Billions Retail CDs Brokerage Sweep Accounts Launch Date Oct'08 Sep' Incremental Volume $6.2 $5.2 December 31, 2008 Balance $6.2 $7.1 31

32 Brokered Retail CD Brokerage Client A Brokerage Client B Citigroup 32

33 Brokered Retail CD Market $ in Billions Industry Balances $366 $243 $259 $192 $96 $109 $113 $ Growth vs. PY (15%) 13% 4% 20% 41% 26% 6% 41% Sources: DTC, Merrill Lynch. 33

34 Brokerage Sweep Account Program Individual Brokerage Account Equity Investments Sweep Account Fixed Income Investments Multi-Bank FDIC Insured Deposit American Express Centurion Bank American Express Bank, FSB Bank XYZ 34

35 Channels and Products Product Families Transaction Accounts Savings Accounts CDs Distribution Channels Brokered Direct Bricks & Mortar Minimal infrastructure No customer engagement Some infrastructure Customer engagement Significant infrastructure Requires extensive product offering Customer engagement 35

36 Direct Deposit Initiative World Renowned Brand Customer Care Tradition Direct Response Expertise Personal Savings from American Express Schedule Platform selected Engaged specialized consultant Target launch Q2'09 36

37 Direct Deposit Market $ in Billions Industry Balances $210 $150 $104 $17 $30 $45 $ Growth vs. PY 70% 76% 50% 44% 87% 39% 40% Source: First Manhattan Consulting Group. 37

38 Medium-Term Potential $ in Billions AXP Balance Brokered Retail CD s Brokerage Sweep Accounts Direct Deposit Initiative $10-20 $5-15 $

39 2009 Priorities Stay Liquid 39

40 Agenda 2008 Financial Performance Funding and Liquidity Update Capital and Profitability Selectively Investing for Growth Question and Answer 40

41 Capital Retained $ in Billions $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 Capital Generated* Dividends Share Repurchase $0.4B Restructuring Charge $0.0 ($0.5) ($1.0) ($1.5) Capital Retained Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 $0.2B $0.0B $0.7B $0.5B $0.7B $0.0B *Capital generated is reported net income plus options and other (primarily employee plan) proceeds. ~$1.9B 41

42 AXP FY'08 Income versus Competitors* $ in Millions $5,605 $2,803 $2,556 $1,063 $52 AXP JPMorgan Bank of America ($23,980) Discover** Cap One*** Citi Growth vs. PY (32%) (64%) (83%) 10% (98%) NM NM indicates not meaningful. *From continuing operations. **Fiscal year ends November 30. ***Income from continuing operations, net of preferred dividends of $33MM. 42

43 AXP Q4'08 Income versus Competitors* $ in Millions $238 $444 $702 ($1,429) ($2,392) ($12,765) AXP Discover** JPMorgan Cap One*** Bank of America Citi Growth vs. PY (72%) 111% (76%) NM NM NM NM indicates not meaningful. *From continuing operations. **Fiscal year ends November 30. ***Income from continuing operations, net of preferred dividends of $33MM. 43

44 Capital Ratios (Preliminary) Q4'08 Pro Forma w/cpp Total Tangible Capital to Total Managed Assets* 6.0% 6.4% Tier 1 Leverage** 7.6% 10.1% Tier 1 Risk-Based Capital** 9.4% 12.7% Total Risk-Based Capital** 10.8% 14.2% *Based upon common shareholders equity of $11.8B, goodwill and intangibles of $3.0B, total assets of $126.1B and total managed assets of $155.9B, as of December 31, Total Tangible Capital is defined as shareholder s equity plus the portion of subordinated debt that has equity characteristics of $563MM and excludes goodwill and intangibles. On a GAAP asset basis, Total Tangible Capital to Total Assets was 7.4%. On a pro forma basis, including 25% of CPP proceeds, this owned ratio was 7.8%. **These ratios represent a preliminary estimate as of the date of these slides and may be revised in the Company s 2008 Annual Report on Form 10-K. 44

45 Key Challenges Financial Services AXP Bank Issuers Impact of lower spending Credit card losses Network & merchant business Lower losses on charge and commercial cards Mortgage exposure Other consumer exposure (auto, etc.) Commercial lending exposure 45

46 Cardmember and Merchant Profitability We approach investment decisions based upon the assumed life of the cardmember or merchant relationship Our focus is on-average, over-time returns We leverage flexibility in our business model and accelerate reengineering to mitigate environmental stresses 46

47 Characteristics to Stay Profitable Certain fixed-rate revenues Model Driven Certain variable-rate expenses Built-in hedges Management Actions Revenue enhancements Accelerated reengineering Discretionary expenses 47

48 Business Model Characteristics Total revenues, net of interest expense, managed basis:* % of Total 2008 Volume Rate Discount Revenue 49% Variable Stable Net Card Fees 7% Stable Stable Net Interest Income Variable Rate Fixed Rate & Charge 21% Variable Variable Stable Sensitive (Natural Hedge) All Other Revenues** 23% Mixed Stable *On a GAAP basis, discount revenue was 53%, net card fees were 7%, securitization income, net was 4%, net interest income was 13% and all other revenues were 23% of total. **All other revenues consist of travel commissions and fees, other commissions and fees and other. 48

49 US Billed Business and Real GDP Growth % increase/(decrease) versus prior year: 25% 5% 20% 4% 15% 3% 10% 2% 5% 1% 0% 0% (5%) (1%) (10%) '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 (2%) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, (BEA). Billed Business (left axis) Real GDP (right axis) 49

50 Average Discount Rate 3.50% 3.25% 3.22% bp increase /(decrease) vs. prior year: Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 (1 bp) (1 bp) (1 bp) (1 bp) 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.75% 2.55% 2.00% Average discount rate represents the percentage of billed business (both proprietary and Global Network Services) retained by the Company from merchants it acquires, prior to payments to third parties unrelated to merchant acceptance. Average discount rate reported for is based on proprietary card business only. 50

51 WW Total Cards-in-Force Millions % 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 4% Proprietary Global Network Services Growth vs. PY 51

52 WW Card Fee Revenue and Adjusted Average Fee per Card $2.2B $36 $ Card Fee Revenue Adjusted Average Fee per Card* *Adjusted average fee per card is computed from proprietary activities only. Excludes amortization of deferred direct acquisition costs (a portion of which is charge card-related and included in net card fees and a portion of which is lending-related and included in interest and fees on loans) and 2008 deferred direct acquisition cost were $288MM and $320MM, respectively, and include $130MM and $146MM of lending-related fees, respectively. 52

53 US Managed Loans $ in Billions $80 23% 23% $60 $40 11% 7% 8% 8% 15% 17% $20 $0 (5%) Managed Loans Growth vs. PY See Annex 2 for GAAP basis. 53

54 US Lending Yields Net interest yield on cardmember loans, managed basis:* 9.1% 9.1% Q1 9.6% Q2 8.9% Q3 9.1% Q4 8.7% *Net interest yield on cardmember loans represents the net spread earned on cardmember loans. Net interest yield on cardmember loans is computed by dividing adjusted net interest income by adjusted average loans, computed on an annualized basis. See Annex 3 for GAAP basis. 54

55 WW Charge Card Interest Expense $ in Billions $1.6 6% 4% 5% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% $0.0 0% Present Charge Card Interest Expense Fed Funds Rate Target 55

56 Business Model Characteristics Expenses and provisions for losses, managed basis:* % of Total 2008 Volume Rate Total provisions for losses 29% Variable Sensitive Cardmember rewards & cardmember services 18% Variable Stable Other operating expenses** 44% Mixed Stable Marketing and promotion 9% Discretionary *On a GAAP basis, total provisions for losses were 23%, cardmember rewards & cardmember services were 20%, other operating expenses were 47% and marketing and promotion were 10% of total expenses and provisions for losses. **Other operating expenses consist of salaries and employee benefits, professional services, occupancy and equipment, communications and other, net. 56

57 US Card Services Charge Card Net Write-off Rate 3.6% 3.9% 3.4% 3.5% Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 *The net write-off rate does not reflect the write-off of $341 million resulting from the Q4 08 change from 360 days past due to 180 days past due write-offs. 57

58 US Lending Managed Net Write-off Rate 10% US Unemployment Rate US Industry Net Write-off Rate US Lending Net Write-off Rate* 0% Q1'90 Q1'92 Q1'94 Q1'96 Q1'98 Q1'00 Q1'02 Q1'04 Q1'06 Q1'08 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Industry defined as top 100 commercial banks. Bureau of Labor Statistics. *Historical US lending managed net write-off rates are adjusted to exclude an estimate for interest and fees. 58

59 US Lending Managed Net Write-off Rate 10% US Lending Net Write-off Rate* Provision benefit Provision benefit 0% Q1'90 Q1'92 Q1'94 Q1'96 Q1'98 Q1'00 Q1'02 Q1'04 Q1'06 Q1'08 *Historical US lending managed net write-off rates are adjusted to exclude an estimate for interest and fees. 59

60 Questions about Reserves How does AXP reserve for losses? Are reserves and coverage ratios appropriate for the inherent risk in the portfolio? 60

61 Provision Methodology Provision model based upon history Migration of past due accounts to 180 day (contractual) write-offs Bankruptcy trends and early write-offs Recoveries 61

62 Provision Methodology Management Trend Reserves Reserves as a percent of loans Reserves as a percent of past due Write-off coverage (forward and back) Roll-rates Credit actions External environment 62

63 AXP WW Lending Provisions $ in Billions $1.6 $600MM Trend Reserve $1.4 $1.2 $1.0 $288MM Trend Reserve $0.8 $0.6 $0.4 $0.2 $0.0 Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Provision Net write-offs of principal, interest and fees 63

64 Q4'07 Reserve Decision Management observation Coverage ratios had moved below historic norms Deteriorating economic environment Trend reserve decision ($288MM) Bring coverage ratios within recent historic norms 64

65 Q2'08 Reserve Decision Management observation Noticeable deterioration in early and later stage rollrates in June Expectation of higher losses for a given rate of delinquencies Trend reserve decision ($600MM) Bring coverage ratios above recent historic norms 65

66 US Card Services Lending Managed Monthly Roll Rates 1.8% Current to 30 Days Past Due 1.0% 50% 30 Days Past Due to Write-off 25% Jun '07 Aug '07 Oct '07 Dec '07 Feb '08 Apr '08 Jun '08 Aug'08 Oct'08 Dec'08 66

67 US Card Services Lending Managed Monthly Roll Rates 1.8% Current to 30 Days Past Due 1.0% 50% 30 Days Past Due to Write-off 25% Jun '07 Aug '07 Oct '07 Dec '07 Feb '08 Apr '08 Jun '08 Aug'08 Oct'08 Dec'08 67

68 US Card Services 2008 Sequential Loan Change % increase/(decrease) versus prior quarter: (1%) (5%) (9%) (12%) Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 68

69 US Card Services Lending Reserves $ in Billions $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Ending Reserves Net write-offs of principal, interest and fees 69

70 US Lending Reserve Coverage Reserves as a % of loans: 6.3% 6.6% 5.8% 3.9% 4.7% 4.3% 3.8% 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 3.4% 2.8% Q1'06 Q2'06 Q3'06 Q4'06 Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 70

71 Q4'08 Comparative Reserving US Card Services Bank of America* Discover** JPMorgan*** Owned reserves as a % of loans: 6.6% 5.8% 5.5% 7.3% Owned reserves as a % of 30 days past due: 141% 88% 125% ~150% Owned reserves for Cap One and Citi card segments are not publicly available. *Credit Card, includes US consumer and foreign credit card. **Q4 ends November 30. Reserve coverage is based upon total company reserves over loans and delinquencies. ***Card Services segment. Calculated based upon owned reserves and using managed 30 day past due rates to estimate owned 30 day past due loans, as owned 30 day past due rates are not publicly available. 71

72 WW Cardmember Rewards Expense % increase/(decrease) versus prior year: 14% 11% 10% 8% 6% 9% (11%) (10%) * Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Proprietary Billed Business Cardmember Rewards Expense *Cardmember rewards expenses exclude the Q4 08 $106MM Delta-related charge and the Q4 07 $685MM charge to the Membership Rewards reserve. Including these items, on a reported basis, cardmember rewards expenses declined 39%. 72

73 US Membership Rewards Cost per Point 1.0x 0.98x 0.0x Note: Indexed to 2001 cost per point. 73

74 US Membership Rewards Activity Points Redeemed Cost Per Point 1Q'07 2Q'07 3Q'07 4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 4Q'08 74

75 Characteristics to Stay Profitable Certain fixed-rate revenues Model Driven Certain variable-rate expenses Built-in hedges Management Actions Revenue enhancements Accelerated reengineering Discretionary expenses 75

76 2009 Pricing Actions US International APR Other Revenue 76

77 Reengineering Plan $ in Billions $1.8 $1.0 $0.1 $0.7 Salaries and Benefits Other Discretionary Investments Total 77

78 Operating Expense Actions for 2009 Elimination of over 7,000 positions (10% of work force) and hiring freeze for management positions Management level salary increases suspended in 2009 (~15,000 employees impacted) 20+% reduction in travel and entertainment expenses Significant reduction in consulting and professional services costs Scale-back of technology development 78

79 Marketing and Promotion Expense $ in Billions $2.3 $2.5 $2.6 $2.4 $1.9 $1.4 $1.3 $1.5 $

80 Characteristics to Stay Profitable Certain fixed-rate revenues Model Driven Certain variable-rate expenses Built-in hedges Management Actions Revenue enhancements Accelerated reengineering Discretionary expenses 80

81 2009 Unique Challenges 2009 s challenges are unprecedented Early focus on challenges: Reengineering Credit actions Selective investments Objective: Earn in excess of dividends 81

82 2009 Priorities Stay Profitable Stay Liquid 82

83 Beyond 2009 External factors = moderate long-term growth Eventual provision benefit Expense base is well positioned due to reengineering Higher capital requirements = lower ROE 83

84 Long-Term Financial Targets Total Revenues Net of Interest Expense Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations 8% 12-15% ROE 33-36% Capital Returned to Shareholders 65% 84

85 External Environment and Capital Historical High earnings and revenue growth Strong and flexible capital markets Capital in-line with A rated companies Returning 65% of capital to shareholders Recession Turbulent capital markets Market requires higher capital levels CPP Current Future Moderate economic growth Market requires higher capital levels CPP/redemption Returning lower levels of capital to shareholders 85

86 Illustrative Capital Impact on ROE CPP Period** Post-CPP Period** Ending shareholders equity ($B) $11 $12 Managed leverage* 15x 11x ~6-8x ~8-10x Return on average common shareholders equity 37% 22% >20% *Managed leverage is calculated by dividing ending managed assets, excluding cash and cash equivalents, over ending shareholders equity. On a GAAP basis, taking into account owned assets less cash and cash equivalents, leverage for FY 07 and FY 08 was 13x and 9x, respectively. **The data relating to the CPP and post-cpp periods is for illustrative purposes and is subject to various assumptions such as the Company s performance, capital needs and near-to-moderate term economic environment, and is not intended to be a forecast. 86

87 Agenda 2008 Financial Performance Funding and Liquidity Update Capital and Profitability Selectively Investing for Growth Question and Answer 87

88 2009 Priorities Invest Selectively Stay Profitable Stay Liquid 88

89 Spend-Centric Model Investments in Premium Value Attractive Customer Base Premium Economics High Average Spending 89

90 AXP as Processor Plus Card Processors Networks Card Issuers Merchant Acquirers/ Processors Consumers CLOSED LOOP DATA Merchants 90

91 2008 Worldwide Managed Revenue AXP Discover* Cap One** Bank of America*** Citi N.A. JPMorgan Discount Revenue and Fees Net Interest Income NOTE: Discount revenue and fees include discount, interchange, card fees and all other non-interest revenues. *Fiscal year ends November 30. US Card. **US Card. ***Card Services Segment. 91

92 2008 Spend Velocity by Business 10.9x 6.7x 6.2x 6.0x 3.9x 1.9x Global Commercial Card US Small Business International Card Services US Consumer* AXP* Industry Average** Note: Spend velocity is defined as billed business for a trailing twelve-month period divided by average receivables, calculated on a five point quarterly basis. *Managed basis. On a GAAP basis US Consumer and AXP spend velocity was 6.7x and 7.9x, respectively. **Industry Average includes Bank of America Credit Card, Cap One US Card, Citi Global Cards, Discover and JPMorgan. 92

93 Customer Focused Organization Global Consumer Global Business to Business Affluent global base Marketing expertise Acquisition channels Risk capabilities Corporate, merchant and GNS relationships Sales & client management expertise Processing High ROE, lower risk Blue Box Advantages: Brand Premium positioning Rewards platforms Reengineering Servicing Information management 93

94 2009 Priorities Invest Selectively Stay Profitable Stay Liquid 94

95 2009 Investment Priorities Charge Card A unique asset in the marketplace Benefits for Customers The right card for the times Financial Control + Rewards + Service Benefits for Shareholders Risk controls at the transaction level Lower capital requirements 95

96 2009 Investment Priorities Partnerships Benefits for Customers NW customers gain an expanded value proposition MR participants gain new redemption options Expanded merchant coverage in the Midwest Benefits for Shareholders Creditworthy prospect base High spending, fee paying customers 96

97 2009 Investment Priorities Partnerships Benefits for Customers Expanded value propositions New redemption options Best in class service Benefits for Shareholders Creditworthy prospect base High spending, fee paying customers 97

98 2009 Investment Priorities Partnerships Benefits for Customers Unique loyalty capabilities utilizing our closed loop Strong Value through Broad Offerings Friction Free Redemption Best in Class Service Benefits for Shareholders Higher Cardmember Retention Merchant Partner Engagement Superior Economics 98

99 2009 Investment Priorities Merchant Programs Benefits for Customers Expanded Value Offerings at relevant merchants Benefits for Merchants Incremental spending New customer acquisition Benefits for Shareholders Incremental spending Merchant engagement Cardmember loyalty 99

100 2009 Investment Priorities Commercial Services Benefits for Clients Expanded expense management capabilities Broader product offerings Service enhancements Benefits for Shareholders Expanded customer acquisition channels Incremental spending 100

101 2009 Investment Priorities Global Network Services Benefits for Partners Marketing expertise Expanded product offerings New customer acquisition Benefits for Shareholders Incremental spending Expanded scale and relevance of AXP Network Partner fees 101

102 2009 Priorities Invest Selectively Stay Profitable Stay Liquid 102

103 103

104 Long-Term Assets Loyal, affluent global customer base Global payment network Diversity of products, geographies and customer segments Consistent innovation of value propositions Service orientation Excellent people Respected global brand 104

105 105

106 Annex 1 (Billions) Q4'07 Q3'08 Q4'08 FY07 FY08 Cardmember Lending Owned Basis Total Loans AXP Days Past Due Loans as a % of Total AXP 2.8% 3.7% 4.4% 2.8% 4.4% Average Loans AXP Net Write-off Rate AXP 3.7% 5.8% 6.5% 3.5% 5.5% Cardmember Lending Managed Basis Total Loans AXP Days Past Due Loans as a % of Total AXP 2.8% 3.8% 4.6% 2.8% 4.6% Average Loans AXP Net Write-off Rate AXP 3.6% 5.7% 6.5% 3.3% 5.4% 106

107 Annex 2 (Billions) US Cardmember Lending Owned Basis Growth vs PY 8% (3%) 1% 3% 11% 26% 35% 29% (24%) US Cardmember Lending Managed Basis Growth vs PY 23% 11% 7% 8% 8% 15% 17% 23% (5%) 107

108 Annex 3 (millions) Q4'08 Q3'08 Q2'08 Q1'08 Q4'07 FY 2008 FY 2007 USCS Owned Basis: Net interest income ,570 2,472 Average loans (billions) (A) Adjusted net interest income (B) ,127 3,293 Adjusted average loans (billions) (C) Net interest yield on cardmember loans (D) 8.5% 8.6% 8.2% 8.7% 8.4% 8.5% 8.9% USCS Managed Basis (E): Net interest income (F) 1,231 1,349 1,290 1,382 1,204 5,252 4,466 Average loans (billions) (A) Adjusted net interest income (G) 1,380 1,475 1,416 1,538 1,404 5,809 5,286 Adjusted average loans (billions) (H) Net interest yield on cardmember loans (I) 8.7% 9.1% 8.9% 9.6% 8.8% 9.1% 9.1% (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) Loan balances used to calculate average loans for all periods presented have been revised in connection with the Company's conversion to a bank holding company. Specifically, deferred card fees net of deferred direct acquisition costs for cardmember loans were reclassified from other liabilities to cardmember loans for all periods. Represents net interest income allocable to the Company's cardmember lending portfolio, which excludes the impact of card fees on loans and balance transfer fees attributable to the Company's cardmember lending portfolio. Represents average loans excluding the impact of deferred card fees net of deferred direct acquisition costs for cardmember loans. Net interest yield on cardmember loans represents the net spread earned on cardmember loans. Net interest yield on cardmember loans is computed by dividing adjusted net interest income by adjusted average loans, computed on an annualized basis. The Company believes net interest yield on owned cardmember loans on a consolidated and segment basis is useful to investors because it provides a measure of profitability of the Company's cardmember lending portfolio. Reserves and net write-offs related to interest and fees are recorded through provisions for losses - cardmember lending, and therefore are not included in the net interest yield calculation. Includes on-balance sheet cardmember loans and off-balance sheet securitized cardmember loans. Refer to the information set forth under U.S. Card Services Selected Financial Information of the Company's Fourth Quarter/Full Year 2008 Earnings Release for a further discussion of the managed basis presentation. Includes the securitization adjustment to interest income and interest expense as set forth under U.S. Card Services Selected Financial Information managed basis presentation within the Company's Fourth Quarter/Full Year 2008 Earnings Release. Represents net interest income allocable to the Company's managed cardmember lending portfolio, which excludes the impact of card fees on managed loans and balance transfer fees attributable to the Company's managed cardmember lending portfolio. Represents average managed loans excluding the impact of deferred card fees net of deferred direct acquisition costs for managed cardmember loans. Net interest yield on managed cardmember loans represents the net spread earned on managed cardmember loans. Net interest yield on managed cardmember loans is computed by dividing adjusted net interest income by adjusted average loans, computed on an annualized basis. The Company believes net interest yield on managed cardmember loans on a consolidated and segment basis is useful to investors because it provides a measure of profitability of the Company's managed cardmember lending portfolio. Reserves and net write-offs related to interest and fees are recorded through provisions for losses - cardmember lending, and therefore are not included in the net interest yield calculation. 108