EMERGING MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK ATTRACTIVE BY JIM CARLEN 2016 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

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1 EMERGING MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK ATTRACTIVE BY JIM CARLEN 2016 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

2 EMERGING MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK ATTRACTIVE Emerging markets should become more attractive as fundamentals improve and investors seek to tap into better growth and reform stories. After the turbulence of the past few years, emerging markets (EM) look poised for a rebound in Here s why: Key commodity prices should modestly recover. Low expectations for commodity prices, plus commodity-dependent EM countries that have largely adjusted to lower prices, mean even a modest recovery would become a terms-of-trade, growth and fiscal tailwind for much of the sector. Global growth has bottomed and should finally show year-on-year improvement. EM growth in particular should show its first acceleration in five years and is expected to improve from about 4% to 4.6%. While the improvement would be modest, it is an inflection point and is critical to improving the narrative for emerging markets. The Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle is a sign of confidence in U.S. growth and comfort with the global economy. A low trajectory hiking cycle should not derail EM growth and investment, and it could help reduce uncertainty if accompanied by easing by the European and other central banks. Emerging market countries show improvement Over the last decade, the investment thesis for EM has been better balance sheets, better growth and attractive investment opportunities. The commodity collapse was a setback to many EM growth stories and exposed weak macroeconomic policies in some countries. However, a critical mass of EM countries is turning the corner with policy adjustments, better leadership and some recovery in growth (and in some cases all three). Russia is set to restart growth in 2016, Turkey s new market-friendly government will address some long-delayed structural issues, and Indonesia has implemented a number of modest structural reforms that should help boost growth. Argentina just elected a market-friendly president, and Brazil may finally start to take concrete steps toward fiscal adjustment, which could spur better confidence and growth. This sample of improvement stories makes up more than 40% of the EM bond index (JPM EMBI Global). Emerging markets are not a monolithic sector There are still some tough stories in the sector, and the market is less likely to simply hope for the best and buy the cheapest bond than may have been the case in other recovery years. We expect the EM tailwinds cited above to be quite modest, and the overriding theme for the foreseeable future will be the level, quality and sustainability of policies and economic growth. The end of some of the more populist EM regimes, or at least their neutralization, signals that more countries should get their policies on track.

3 Potential opportunity in Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange (EMFX) EMFX and local debt might be one of the better investment opportunities in the sector in With attractive valuations and the reduction in EM gloom and doom, EMFX should benefit from better investment flows as investors seek to tap into better growth and reform stories. Given how far the U.S. dollar has rallied, it is also expected to be less of a headwind to EMFX than in the past. JIM CARLEN Senior Portfolio Manager Jim is senior portfolio manager of emerging markets fixed income and has been a member of the investment community since 1991.

4 The JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMBI Global) tracks total returns for traded external debt instruments in emerging markets and is an expanded version of the JPMorgan EMBI+. As with the EMBI+, the EMBI Global includes U.S.-dollar-denominated Brady bonds, loans and eurobonds with an outstanding face value of at least $500 million. It covers more of the eligible instruments than the EMBI+ by relaxing somewhat the strict EMBI+ limits on secondary market trading liquidity. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency instabilities and different financial and accounting standards. Risks are enhanced for emerging market issuers. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change, and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (CMIA) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by CMIA and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Since economic and market conditions change frequently, there can be no assurance that the trends described here will continue or that any forecasts are accurate. Securities referenced should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell.

5 About Columbia Threadneedle Investments Columbia Threadneedle Investments is a leading global asset management group that provides a broad range of actively managed investment strategies and solutions for individual, institutional and corporate clients around the world. With more than 2,000 people, including over 450 investment professionals based in North America, Europe and Asia, we manage $471 billion* of assets across developed and emerging market equities, fixed income, asset allocation solutions and alternatives. We are the 13th largest manager of long-term mutual fund assets in the U.S.** and the 4th largest manager of retail funds in the U.K.*** Our priority is the investment success of our clients. We aim to deliver the investment outcomes they expect through an investment approach that is team-based, performance-driven and risk-aware. Our culture is dynamic and interactive. By sharing our insights across asset classes and geographies, we generate richer perspectives on global, regional and local investment landscapes. The ability to exchange and debate investment ideas in a collaborative environment enriches our teams investment processes. More importantly, it results in better informed investment decisions for our clients. To find out more, call or visit columbiathreadneedle.com/us * In U.S. dollars as of September 30, Source: Ameriprise Q3 Earnings Release. Includes all assets managed by entities in the Columbia and Threadneedle groups of companies. Contact us for more current data. ** Source: ICI as of September 30, 2015 for Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. *** Source: Investment Association as of September 2015 for Threadneedle. Securities products offered through Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc., member FINRA. Advisory services provided by Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies. Columbia Management Investment Distributors, Inc., 225 Franklin Street, Boston, MA Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. All rights reserved. 11W2 (01/16)