Does This Emerging Market Rally Have Legs?

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1 AUGUST Nick Niziolek, CFA Co-CIO and Senior Co-Portfolio Manager Todd Speed, CFA SVP and Portfolio Specialist Does This Emerging Market Rally Have Legs? Since the mid-january low, we have become more positive on investment opportunities in emerging markets. In our view, this EM rally can continue, with the potential for more upside in the next six to 12 months. Of course, the sustainability of the rally will depend on fundamental data, global monetary policy and continued stabilization in currencies We see a combination of conditions that could propel EMs over the next year and beyond. These include Improving fundamentals Attractive valuations Stabilizing currency and commodities and commodities and selectivity remains key as individual economies maintain different growth trajectories. FIGURE 1. SEVEN OUT OF SEVEN TIMES, EMS RALLIED BACK Since the 1988 inception of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, there have been seven major (25% or more) drawdowns in emerging markets. In each instance seven out of seven times the major drawdown was followed by a rally. Notably, the average returns for the 12- and 18-month periods following a major EM drawdown illustrate the potential for gains. Years of relative subpar performance Under-owned asset July 21 marked the six-month anniversary of the January 21 low in emerging market equities. As Figure 1 shows, this recent rally is fairly similar to the average of the past market rebounds. 150 EM Index Drawdown % Next 3 Months Next 6 Months Next 12 Months Next 18 Months We are here NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE NO BANK GUARANTEE -90 8/1/90-1/16/91 9/16/94-3/9/95 7/4/97-9/10/98 2/11/00-9/21/01 10/26/07-11/21/08 5/2/11-9/26/11 4/28/15-1/21/16 Average Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted.

2 FIGURE 2. VALUATIONS REMAIN ATTRACTIVE Emerging markets have been trading at a discount relative to developed markets since 2013, as represented by a historical comparison of price-to-book for EMs vs. DMs. To some extent, this reflects the reduced profitability of some companies (in terms of return on equity). However, we believe valuations are supportive to EMs on the whole. 1.1 P/B: EM vs. DM Discount/Premium Average +/- 1 Std Dev EMS ARE TRADING AT A DISCOUNT VS. DMS 0.4 Jul '11 Jul '12 Jul '13 Jul '14 Jul '15 Jul '16 Source: Bloomberg. Data from 7/21/11-7/21/16. FIGURE 3. EMERGING MARKETS HAVE RECENTLY OUTPERFORMED DEVELOPED MARKETS Based on both absolute (blue line) and relative performance vs. developed markets (green line), the EM vs. DM performance ratio has become more supportive for EMs. We believe this could represent a key inflection point. MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX, ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE PERFORMANCE MSCI Emerging Markets Index (USD, LHS) MSCI Emerging Markets/World Index Ratio (USD, RHS) JUL 13 DEC 13 MAY 14 OCT 14 MAR 15 AUG 15 JAN 16 JUN 16 Source: Credit Suisse Global Equity Research, using data from MSCI. Past performance is no guarantee of future results DOES THIS EMERGING MARKET RALLY HAVE LEGS?

3 FIGURE 4. EM CURRENCIES HAVE STRENGTHENED After a few years of considerable headwinds, emerging market currencies have appreciated year-to-date and may support gains in equities. MSCI EMERGING MARKETS CURRENCY INDEX, JULY 2011-JULY JUL 11 JAN 12 JUL 12 JAN 13 JUL 13 JAN 14 JUL 15 JAN 16 JUL 16 Source: Bloomberg. Daily closing price data from 7/21/11-7/21/16. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. FIGURE 5. COMMODITY PRICES PROVIDE A TAILWIND Stabilization in commodity prices may provide another pillar of support to EMs. BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX AND MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX, JULY 2015-JULY 2016 Bloomberg Commodity Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index JUL 15 OCT 15 JAN 16 APR 16 JUL 16 Source: Bloomberg. Daily price data from 7/21/15-7/21/16. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. AUGUST

4 FIGURE 6. ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS ARE IMPROVING We see signs of improving economic fundamentals for the emerging markets in many areas. For example, the average emerging market PMI, an indicator of economic health of the manufacturing sector, has turned positive and is often a precursor to a broadening pickup in economic growth. REGIONAL PMI DATA, SA EM Average INDEX 49.0 DEC 2013 FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB APR JUN JUL Source: Macrobond. EM average is represented by the average PMI data for China, Taiwan, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. FIGURE 7. BEFORE AND AFTER BREXIT: EMS OUTPERFORMED Event risk and policy uncertainty kept many investors on the sidelines. Emerging markets outperformed U.S. and developed market stocks globally, both pre- and post-brexit. FIGURE 7A. PRE-BREXIT TOTAL RETURN, DECEMBER 31, 2015-JUNE 23, 2016 MSCI Emerging Markets Index MSCI World Index S&P 500 Index JAN 15 JAN 29 FEB 15 FEB 29 MAR 15 APR 15 APR 29 MAY 16 MAY 31 JUN Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 4 DOES THIS EMERGING MARKET RALLY HAVE LEGS?

5 FIGURE 7B. POST BREXIT TOTAL RETURN, JUNE 23, 2016-JULY 21, 2016 MSCI Emerging Markets Index MSCI World Index S&P 500 Index JUN 2016 JUL 2016 Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Positioning While we see a variety of supportive factors for the emerging markets as a whole, we believe selectivity remains key. Historically, rebounds have been commensurate with the preceding downturn (with the most significant rebounds following the Asian and global financial crises of the late 1990s and 2008, respectively), which we factor into our outlook. We are maintaining our emphasis on countries that are less tied to commodity prices and those which are moving toward higher levels of economic freedoms. Although economies with lower-quality fundamentals have continued to perform well, we remain concerned about the downside risks associated with countries such as Russia and Brazil. In contrast, prospects look relatively good in Indonesia and India, both of which have cut interest rates. We are also watching the Philippines with great interest, as new leadership looks set to continue with economic reforms. In regard to China, we continue to believe the government has the tools and levers it needs to prevent a hard landing in the near term. Our focus remains on technology and consumption, areas that we believe can benefit from China s transition to a more balanced consumer-driven economy. AUGUST

6 Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. The opinions and views of third parties do not represent the opinions or views of Calamos Investments LLC. Opinions referenced are as of July 29, 2016 and are subject to change due to changes in the market, economic conditions or changes in the legal and/ or regulatory environment and may not necessarily come to pass. This information is provided for informa tional purposes only and should not be considered tax, legal, or investment advice. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations. Indexes are unmanaged, not available for direct in vestment and do not include fees and expenses. The S&P 500 Index is considered generally representative of the U.S. equity market. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a measure of the performance of emerging market equities. The MSCI World Index is a market capitalization weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of developed market countries in North America, Europe, and Asia/ Pacific region. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified commodity price index distributed by Bloomberg Indexes. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Currency Index will track the performance of twenty-five emerging-market currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. Price/Book Ratio-Is a stock s capitalization divided by its book value. Return on equity is equal to a company s net income divided by shareholder s equity. Annualized standard deviation is a statistical measure of the historical volatility of a mutual fund or portfolio. Foreign Securities Risk Risks associated with investing in foreign securities include fluctuations in the exchange rates of foreign currencies that may affect the U.S. dollar value of a security, the possibility of substantial price volatility as a result of political and economic instability in the foreign country, less public information about issuers of securities, different securities regulation, different accounting, auditing and financial reporting standards and less liquidity than in U.S. markets. Emerging Markets Risk Emerging market countries may have relatively unstable governments and economies based on only a few industries, which may cause greater instability. The value of emerging market securities will likely be particularly sensitive to Hedge changes in the economies of such countries. These countries are also more likely to experience higher levels of inflation, deflation or currency devaluations, which could hurt their economies and securities markets. NOT Unmanaged FDIC index INSURED returns assume MAY LOSE reinvestment VALUE of any NO and BANK all distributions GUARANTEE and, unlike fund returns, do not reflect fees, expenses or sales charges. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Before investing carefully consider the fund s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please see the prospectus and summary prospectus containing this and other information or call Read it carefully before investing. Calamos Investments LLC 2020 Calamos Calamos Investments Court Naperville, LLP IL Threadneedle calamos.com Street London, EC2R 8HP, UK Tel: +44 (0) Calamos Investments LLP No. Calamos 1 Cornhill Investments London, LLC EC3V 3ND, UK Tel: Calamos (0) 20 Court Naperville, calamos.com/global IL Calamos Investments LLC. All Rights Reserved. Calamos 2016 Calamos and Calamos Investments Investments LLC. All Rights are registered Reserved. trademarks of Calamos Calamos and Investments Calamos Investments LLC. are registered trademarks of Calamos Investments LLC O C

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