Venture Forth in Emerging Markets, but Be Cautious on Funding Risks
|
|
- Donald Bradford
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Venture Forth in Emerging Markets, but Be Cautious on Funding Risks November 26, 2018 by Rashique Rahman of Invesco A tightening of financial conditions, led by US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and an appreciating US dollar, have pressured emerging market (EM) assets so far this year. However, Invesco Fixed Income believes that concern over a generalized crisis in EM external debt (and external vulnerability) is largely unwarranted. That said, structural impediments are likely to limit EM growth over the medium term particularly in the context of a stronger US dollar. We believe there is selective value in EM right now in markets that have been unjustifiably impacted by tightening US dollar funding conditions. What has caused the EM volatility? We believe recent volatility in EMs has been caused by a combination of idiosyncratic and exogenous (external) factors. The primary external factor has been a tightening in US financial conditions triggered by a rise in real interest rates and importantly the US dollar. This effective tightening in US dollar funding conditions has led to concerns about the ability of many EMs to fund external liabilities coming due. Arguably, this concern was only exacerbated in countries with idiosyncratic issues, namely Argentina and Turkey. These economies were perceived to have been running policy too hot and in the process, generating external imbalances that is, widening current account deficits and large external funding requirements. These imbalances ultimately require future financing, either through capital flows or via a drawdown in foreign exchange reserves. Both countries are perceived to have been externally vulnerable, given already low foreign exchange reserve coverage of external funding needs. EM stress and rising external debt It is true that external debt levels in EMs have climbed over the past decade. However, based on Bank for International Settlements data, most of this rise has been in China, and to a lesser extent, Mexico. In other countries, the rise in external debt has been more modest. Most of this rise comes from the private, corporate sector. Measures of capacity to repay have worsened since 2008, but for most countries they remain at comfortable levels. Additionally, EM external assets have grown faster than external debt. In aggregate, current liquid EM foreign exchange reserves (excluding gold) can pay down all EM external debt. Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 Important considerations However, there are important caveats to bear in mind. First, foreign exchange assets are concentrated in some countries and scarce in others. For instance, based on our analysis, all else equal China s reserves can cover its external funding needs over the next 12 months several times over, while Argentina and Turkey lack sufficient reserves to cover their needs from now until the end of 2019 (though Argentina s recent deal with the International Monetary Fund secures their access to external funds so long as the program holds). Second, external assets are concentrated in the public sector and external liabilities in the private sector. Transferring external assets to the private sector can pose challenges that typically manifest via the exchange rate. Central banks can mitigate potential pressure on the domestic currency via various mechanisms, including foreign exchange swaps. We see domestic debt as the true source of EM vulnerability Domestic leverage in EMs has increased over the past decade, and more recently, government debt has also increased with fiscal expansion. A domestic debt overhang will likely restrain growth, absent a resurgence in productivity that boosts income and repayment capacity. The upturn in EM growth through the third quarter of 2017 reduced domestic debt and debt-servicing ratios, but this dynamic may not persist if EM countries fail to address underlying competitiveness concerns. Why does this matter? As monetary policy normalization leads to rising developed market interest rates, growth differentials between EM and developed markets become more important determinants of capital and portfolio flows. The higher the growth differential in favor of EMs, the higher the capital inflows (and asset market support) to EMs, and vice versa. This dynamic becomes more problematic if global financial conditions continue to tighten, particularly via the US dollar. US dollar and EM growth inversely related There is a persistent relationship between trends in the trade-weighted US dollar and EM growth. Though other factors contribute such as commodity prices the US dollar tends to dictate domestic financial conditions for many EM countries via the domestic currency. As the domestic currency depreciates versus the US dollar, domestic financial conditions tighten (and vice versa). It takes time for this depreciation to improve export competitiveness and contribute to net trade. Meanwhile, as domestic financial conditions tighten, so too does domestic demand and overall growth. Figure 1: Past US dollar weakness has supported EM growth via financial conditions Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 Source: BIS, Macrobond, Invesco, Dec. 31, 2009 to Sept. 29, Outlook and strategy A scenario of further material tightening in US dollar funding conditions particularly if the cost of borrowing increases while US dollar funding availability diminishes may place lower-rated sovereign and corporate issues under repayment duress, particularly those without external funding backstops. However, Invesco Fixed Income believes there has been value creation in certain segments of the market. Some have been unjustifiably impacted by recent concerns over the tightening in US dollarfunding conditions. Therefore, there may be opportunities to add exposure to these select markets. Stability in Argentina and Turkey alone should give way to an EM asset-price recovery, and the recent market-friendly election result in Brazil should have the same effect if we see a move towards pension and fiscal reform. At the same time, we acknowledge uncertainties related to policy orientation during the recent EM election cycle, which will continue into 2019 with elections in Argentina, Indonesia and South Africa in focus. More immediately, the public consultation in Mexico on the fate of the new airport in Mexico City has cast a long shadow on the policy priorities of the incoming administration. We will look for more supportive policy signals out of South Africa and Turkey. The prospect of additional US sanctions on Russia also looms. In the context of recent policy easing efforts in China, stability in the renminbi along with indications of broader stability in the US dollar (and US funding conditions) would provide much needed support to EM fixed income. The importance of these macro drivers cannot be overstated. The rest will depend on Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 policy outcomes in individual countries. In this sense and importantly the market is likely to be driven increasingly by idiosyncratic outcomes, a dynamic that is likely to endure well into Important information Blog header image: hxdbzxy/shutterstock.com Idiosyncratic developments refer to unique events that do not affect an entire market or portfolio. Exogenous factors are external events or conditions not explained by an economic model or forecast. The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues. The dollar value of foreign investments will be affected by changes in the exchange rates between the dollar and the currencies in which those investments are traded. Fixed-income investments are subject to credit risk of the issuer and the effects of changing interest rates. Interest rate risk refers to the risk that bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa. An issuer may be unable to meet interest and/or principal payments, thereby causing its instruments to decrease in value and lowering the issuer s credit rating. Issuers of sovereign debt or the governmental authorities that control repayment may be unable or unwilling to repay principal or interest when due, and the Fund may have limited recourse in the event of default. Without debt holder approval, some governmental debtors may be able to reschedule or restructure their debt payments or declare moratoria on payments. The performance of an investment concentrated in issuers of a certain region or country is expected to be closely tied to conditions within that region and to be more volatile than more geographically diversified investments. Rashique Rahman Head of Emerging Markets Rashique Rahman joined Invesco in 2014 as the Head of Emerging Markets (EM) for Invesco Fixed Income. Throughout his career, Mr. Rahman has led or been a part of various EM strategy and research teams. Previously, he was co-head of global foreign exchange (FX) and EM strategy at Morgan Stanley, leading the global EM fixed income and currency effort. Prior to this, he led global strategy for EM at HSBC in its New York office. He has also held positions at Citigroup, both as a senior EM strategist and as a principal trader based in London. He worked as a portfolio manager for local EM (rates/fx) at Armored Wolf, a US-based, multi-asset alternative asset manager. His background also includes work as a sovereign analyst at Standard & Poor s in the Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 sovereign ratings group. Mr. Rahman earned an MBA and MA at Columbia University and earned his undergraduate degree at UCLA. This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial advisor/financial consultant before making any investment decisions. Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax professional for information concerning their individual situation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals. NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE NO BANK GUARANTEE All data provided by Invesco unless otherwise noted. Invesco Distributors, Inc. is the US distributor for Invesco Ltd. s retail products and collective trust funds. Invesco Advisers, Inc. and other affiliated investment advisers mentioned provide investment advisory services and do not sell securities. Invesco Unit Investment Trusts are distributed by the sponsor, Invesco Capital Markets, Inc., and broker-dealers including Invesco Distributors, Inc. Each entity is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Invesco Ltd Invesco Ltd. All rights reserved. Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Are You Prepared for Rising Interest Rates?
Are You Prepared for Rising Interest Rates? May 21, 2018 by Jason Bloom of Invesco Defined maturity bond funds ETFs may provide a compelling option for a rising interest rate environment Interest rates
More informationInfrastructure Investing: From Concrete to Computer Chips
Infrastructure Investing: From Concrete to Computer Chips January 30, 2017 by Nick Clare of Invesco Learn why Invesco Unit Trusts views information technology as a critical part of the infrastructure category
More informationThe US Debt Ceiling Saga Returns
The US Debt Ceiling Saga Returns August 21, 2017 by Justin Mandeville of Invesco US short-term bond markets could be choppy as Congress seeks to resolve the looming issue Once again, the US debt ceiling
More informationInterest Rate Outlook: Above-Trend Growth Could Cause Us Inflation Later in 2018
Interest Rate Outlook: Above-Trend Growth Could Cause Us Inflation Later in 2018 February 12, 2018 by Rob Waldner of Invesco Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on rates around the world US: We expect
More informationInvesco Premium Income Fund
Invesco Premium Income Fund Balanced Income A multi-asset strategy designed using risk-balancing principles that seeks income and an increase in value during periods of economic strength and seeks protection
More informationConcerned About Interest Rates Rising? Consider Convertibles
Concerned About Interest Rates Rising? Consider Convertibles August 4, 2015 by Sponsored Content from Invesco Over the past few months, several major companies involved in the automotive, telecommunications,
More informationAcadian Emerging Markets Debt Fund
Click here to view the fund s statutory prospectus or statement of additional information The Advisors Inner Circle Fund Acadian Emerging Markets Debt Fund Summary Prospectus March 1, 2015 Ticker: Institutional
More informationThe Q2 Factor Winner? Small Cap.
The Q2 Factor Winner? Small Cap. July 23, 2018 by Nick Kalivas of Invesco As global risks grow, factor diversification may help investors stay prepared With fears of a trade war looming over global large-cap
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationWhat May LIBOR's Phase-Out Mean for Investors?
What May LIBOR's Phase-Out Mean for Investors? October 1, 2018 by Justin Mandeville, Jacob Habibi of Invesco In the past few years, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) has faced well-publicized challenges.
More informationTEMPLETON GLOBAL BOND VIP FUND
SUMMARY PROSPECTUS TEMPLETON GLOBAL BOND VIP FUND Franklin Templeton Variable Insurance Products Trust Class 2 May 1, 2018 as amended February 12, 2019 Before you invest, you may want to review the Fund
More informationCOLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO EMERGING MARKETS FUND
PROSPECTUS May 1, 2018 COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO EMERGING MARKETS FUND The Fund may offer Class 1, Class 2 and Class 3 shares to separate accounts funding variable annuity contracts and variable life
More informationInvestment. Insights. Emerging Markets. Invesco Global Equity. A 2012 outlook
Investment Insights Invesco Global Equity Emerging Markets A 2012 outlook Ingrid Baker Portfolio Manager Invesco Global Equity Many investors have watched from the sidelines as emerging market equities
More informationActively Emerging: Opportunities in Debt
Aon Hewitt Retirement and Investment Actively Emerging: Opportunities in Debt Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. Executive summary Emerging Market Debt (EMD) offers higher yields relative to developed
More informationThe Universal Institutional Funds, Inc.
Class I Prospectus April 29, 2016 The Universal Institutional Funds, Inc. Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio High total return by investing primarily in fixed income securities of government and government-related
More informationEmerging market corporate bonds: Risks are real but overblown
Investment Perspectives Emerging market corporate bonds: Risks are real but overblown Karina L. Bubeck, CFA; Anjali Doshi; Chelsea Konsko; and Erchen Yan Executive Summary After a decade-long surge in
More informationEmerging Markets: Broader opportunities and declining systematic risk
June 2013 Emerging Markets: Broader opportunities and declining systematic risk Favorable outlook for emerging markets equity and debt Alexander Muromcew, Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
More informationSector Performance and Economic Cycles: When Do Sectors Have the Potential to Shine?
Sector Performance and Economic Cycles: When Do Sectors Have the Potential to Shine? June 4, 2018 by Nick Kalivas of Invesco Where we stand in the economic cycle can have a measurable effect on sector
More informationHSBC Fund Update. HSBC GIF Global Emerging Markets Bond. April Market overview. Portfolio strategy
HSBC Fund Update April 2016 HSBC GIF Global Emerging Markets Bond Market overview The rally in Emerging Market (EM) assets continued in March given the improvement in global risk sentiment on the back
More informationMarket E-digest October 2018 Issue
Market E-digest October 2018 Issue A) Emerging Markets: Diminishing Risks VS. Fears Emerging market (EM) economies are facing a number of insecurities. Investors have grown increasingly concerned about
More informationErdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey
Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the April
More informationThree Reasons to Consider Bank Stocks
Three Reasons to Consider Bank Stocks July 3, 207 by Nick Kalivas of Invesco Valuations and regulations are among the trends that we re watching in this industry Bank stocks have spun their wheels for
More informationNationwide Funds. A Nationwide Financial White Paper. Executive summary
Nationwide Funds A Nationwide Financial White Paper Emerging Markets Executive summary Emerging market economies have experienced faster population and economic growth than developed markets; a trend that
More informationA Country Picker's Market
A Country Picker's Market February 12, 2018 by Christopher Dhanraj of ishares It s a country picker s market. The most synchronized global economy in a decade comes with an unusual counterpart: the most
More informationTempleton Emerging Markets Bond Fund Advisor Class
Templeton Emerging Markets Bond Fund Advisor Class Unconstrained Fixed Income Product Profile Product Details 1 Fund Assets $34,588,372.19 Fund Inception Date 04/01/2013 Number of Securities 128 Including
More informationPortfolio and Market Discussion Artisan Partners Developing World Team. Lewis Kaufman, CFA, Portfolio Manager. Artisan High Income Fund
Artisan High Income Fund Portfolio and Market Discussion Artisan Partners Developing World Team Lewis Kaufman, CFA, Portfolio Manager For Institutional Investors Only Not for Onward Distribution Artisan
More informationCapital Flows and External Vulnerability Examining the Recent Trends in India
Capital Flows and External Vulnerability Examining the Recent Trends in India Prasenjit Bose After India s current account deficit (CAD) reached an all-time high of 4.2% of GDP in March 212, the Annual
More informationXtrackers MSCI All World ex US High Dividend Yield Equity ETF
Summary Prospectus September 28, 2018 Ticker: HDAW Stock Exchange: NYSE Arca, Inc. Before you invest, you may wish to review the Fund s prospectus, which contains more information about the Fund and its
More informationDistribution Number 9
Distribution Number 9 Legal & General Emerging Markets Government Bond (Local Currency) Index Fund Annual Manager s Short Report for the year ended 20 April 2018 Investment Objective and Policy The objective
More informationFUND FEES AND EXPENSES The following tables describe the fees and expenses that you may pay if you buy and hold shares of the Fund ( Shares ).
MARKET VECTORS J.P. MORGAN EM LOCAL CURRENCY BOND ETF Ticker: EMLC Principal U.S. Listing Exchange: NYSE Arca, Inc. SUMMARY PROSPECTUS SEPTEMBER 1, 2015, as revised on OCTOBER 1, 2015 EMLCSUM Before you
More informationInvesco V.I. Core Equity Fund
Prospectus April 30, 2018 Series I shares Invesco V.I. Core Equity Fund Shares of the Fund are currently offered only to insurance company separate accounts funding variable annuity contracts and variable
More informationFundSource. Professionally managed, diversified mutual fund portfolios. A sophisticated approach to mutual fund investing
FundSource Professionally managed, diversified mutual fund portfolios Is this program right for you? FundSource is designed for investors who: Want a diversified portfolio of mutual funds that fits their
More informationCOLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO OVERSEAS CORE FUND
PROSPECTUS May 1, 2018 COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO OVERSEAS CORE FUND (FORMERLY KNOWN AS COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO - SELECT INTERNATIONAL EQUITY FUND) The Fund may offer Class 1, Class 2 and Class 3
More informationBuffered Accelerated Market Participation Securities TM
Filed Pursuant to Rule 433 Registration No. 333-223208 October 2, 2018 FREE WRITING PROSPECTUS (To Prospectus dated February 26, 2018, Prospectus Supplement dated February 26, 2018 Equity Index Underlying
More informationGlobal Investment Committee Themes
Global Investment Committee Themes The Global Investment Committee (GIC), which meets monthly to review the economic and political environment and asset allocation models for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
More informationLearning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss
Learning objectives Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss the fundamentals and valuations of emerging markets economies in 2018 the key risks of emerging market debt in 2018
More informationRESQ Absolute Income Fund Class A Shares (RQIAX) Class I Shares (RQIIX) RESQ Absolute Equity Fund Class A Shares (RQEAX) Class I Shares (RQEIX)
RESQ Absolute Income Fund Class A Shares (RQIAX) Class I Shares (RQIIX) RESQ Absolute Equity Fund Class A Shares (RQEAX) Class I Shares (RQEIX) PROSPECTUS December 13, 2013 Adviser: RESQ Investment Partners,
More informationEaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Funds
Monthly Review March 208 Eaton Vance Funds Market Update Markets across the world were mixed throughout the month of March as global equities experienced negative performance while global bond markets
More informationCOLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO SELIGMAN GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY FUND
PROSPECTUS May 1, 2018 COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO SELIGMAN GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY FUND The Fund may offer Class 1 and Class 2 shares to separate accounts funding variable annuity contracts and variable life
More informationEP Emerging Markets Small Companies Fund Class A: EPASX Class I: EPEIX
EP Emerging Markets Small Companies Fund Class A: EPASX Class I: EPEIX Summary Prospectus March 6, 2018, as amended December 4, 2018 Before you invest, you may want to review the Fund s prospectus, which
More informationTracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets
Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets September 14, 2016 by Nick Niziolek of Calamos Investments The following is an excerpt of remarks made on August 30, 2016. The majority of the improved
More informationGetting Smart About Beta
Getting Smart About Beta December 1, 2015 by Sponsored Content from Invesco Due to its simplicity, market-cap weighting has long been a popular means of calculating the value of market indexes. But as
More informationInsured Municipal Bonds May Offer Added Security for Investors
Insured Municipal Bonds May Offer Added Security for Investors March 6, 2017 by Greg Rawls of Invesco If an issuer defaults, insurance firms can make sure your payments don t stop Puerto Rico s recent
More informationSPDR MSCI Emerging Markets StrategicFactors SM ETF
SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets StrategicFactors SM ETF Summary Prospectus-January 31, 2018 QEMM (NYSE Ticker) Before you invest in the SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets StrategicFactors SM ETF (the Fund ), you may
More informationBuffered Accelerated Market Participation Securities TM
Filed Pursuant to Rule 433 Registration No. 333-223208 November 30, 2018 FREE WRITING PROSPECTUS (To Prospectus dated February 26, 2018, Prospectus Supplement dated February 26, 2018 Equity Index Underlying
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios
Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity
More informationThe following information replaces the table in its entirety appearing under the heading FUND SUMMARY Management of the Fund in the prospectuses:
VICEQ-STAT SUP 110918 Statutory Prospectus Supplement dated November 9, 2018 The purpose of this mailing is to provide you with changes to the current Statutory Prospectuses for Series I and Series II
More informationOur goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling
Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Fourth Quarter 2016 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationTHOMAS WHITE INTERNATIONAL
THOMAS WHITE INTERNATIONAL Capturing Value Worldwide PORTFOLIO STRATEGY OCTOBER 2016 Emerging Markets: Renewing The Promise After nearly five years of underperformance, emerging market equities have regained
More informationEMERGING MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK ATTRACTIVE BY JIM CARLEN 2016 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES
EMERGING MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK ATTRACTIVE BY JIM CARLEN 2016 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES EMERGING MARKETS STARTING TO LOOK ATTRACTIVE Emerging markets should become more attractive as fundamentals improve and
More informationThe State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets
The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets Nick Bennenbroek The State Of Global FX Markets Nick Bennenbroek Head of Currency Strategy June 2015 Please see the disclosure appendix of this publication
More informationSUMMARY PROSPECTUS SIIT Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund (SDLAX) Class A
September 30, 2018 SUMMARY PROSPECTUS SIIT Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund (SDLAX) Class A Before you invest, you may want to review the Fund s prospectus, which contains information about the Fund and its
More informationRISK DISCLOSURES FROM INTERACTIVE BROKERS ASSET MANAGEMENT FOR SSGA GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION ETF MODEL PORTFOLIOS
RISK DISCLOSURES FROM INTERACTIVE BROKERS ASSET MANAGEMENT FOR SSGA GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION ETF MODEL PORTFOLIOS You have elected to invest in an account managed by Interactive Brokers Asset Management
More informationSUMMARY PROSPECTUS SIMT Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund (SDYYX) Class Y
January 31, 2018 SUMMARY PROSPECTUS SIMT Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund (SDYYX) Class Y Before you invest, you may want to review the Fund s prospectus, which contains information about the Fund and its
More informationRussia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
More informationKey Takeaways. What it May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Paul Christopher, CFA Head Global Market Strategist July 11, 2017 Does Rising Mortgage Debt Signal an Economic
More informationGlobal Macro Outlook Subdued Growth, Tail Risks Diminishing ANNE VAN PRAAGH, MANAGING DIRECTOR, SOVEREIGN RATINGS
Global Macro Outlook 2014-15 Subdued Growth, Tail Risks Diminishing ANNE VAN PRAAGH, MANAGING DIRECTOR, SOVEREIGN RATINGS OCTOBER, 2014 Agenda 1. Economic Strength: o Global Growth Lower, But EMs Approaching
More informationDistribution Number 10
Distribution Number 10 Legal & General Emerging Markets Government Bond (US$) Index Fund Annual Manager s Short Report for the year ended 10 November 2017 Investment Objective and Policy The objective
More informationCOLUMBIA FUNDS VARIABLE INSURANCE TRUST. Columbia Variable Portfolio Small Company Growth Fund (the Fund )
COLUMBIA FUNDS VARIABLE INSURANCE TRUST Columbia Variable Portfolio Small Company Growth Fund (the Fund ) Supplement dated July 16, 2012 to the Fund s prospectus dated May 1, 2012 The Board of Trustees
More informationMarket Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
More informationInvesco V.I. Core Equity Fund
Prospectus April 30, 2015 Series I shares Invesco V.I. Core Equity Fund Shares of the Fund are currently offered only to insurance company separate accounts funding variable annuity contracts and variable
More informationActive M Emerging Markets Equity Fund (NMMEX) (Formerly known as Multi-Manager Emerging Markets Equity Fund)
NORTHERN FUNDS Active M Emerging Markets Equity Fund (NMMEX) (Formerly known as Multi-Manager Emerging Markets Equity Fund) 2Q 2018 Performance Review June 30, 2018 Please carefully read the prospectus
More informationCOLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO SMALL CAP VALUE FUND
PROSPECTUS May 1, 2018 COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO SMALL CAP VALUE FUND The Fund may offer Class 1 and Class 2 shares to separate accounts funding variable annuity contracts and variable life insurance
More informationMonetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author
More informationBulletShares ETFs An In-Depth Look at Defined Maturity ETFs. I. A whole new range of opportunities for investors
BulletShares ETFs An In-Depth Look at Defined Maturity ETFs I. A whole new range of opportunities for investors As the ETF market has evolved, so too has the depth and breadth of available products. Defined
More informationInvesco V.I. Government Securities Fund
Prospectus April 30, 2018 Series I shares Invesco V.I. Government Securities Fund Shares of the Fund are currently offered only to insurance company separate accounts funding variable annuity contracts
More informationHSBC Funds. HSBC Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund HSBC Emerging Markets Debt Fund
HSBC Funds HSBC Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund HSBC Emerging Markets Debt Fund Supplement dated March 10, 2017 to the Prospectus, dated February 28, 2017 IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING YOUR INVESTMENT REORGANIZATION
More informationEmerging Market Hard Currency The Right Allocation? March 2018
Emerging Market Hard Currency The Right Allocation? March 21 VIEWPOINT By Warren Hyland - Portfolio Manager With deteriorating fundamentals in the sovereign universe, should investors consider increasing
More informationPresentation. The Boom in Capital Flows and Financial Vulnerability in Asia
High-level Regional Policy Dialogue on "Asia-Pacific economies after the global financial crisis: Lessons learnt, challenges for building resilience, and issues for global reform" 6-8 September 2011, Manila,
More informationEmerging Markets Equities VALUE COULD EXTEND THE EMERGING MARKETS RALLY
PRICE POINT December 2017 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Emerging Markets Equities VALUE COULD EXTEND THE EMERGING MARKETS RALLY KEY POINTS Emerging markets (EM) equities have extended
More informationEconomic policy-making in a small and open economy the case of Suriname
Is small beautiful? Economic policy-making in a small and open economy the case of Suriname Gillmore Hoefdraad November 2012 Highlights World Economic Outlook 2 Summary Global growth has decelerated. Growth
More informationSUPPLEMENT DATED DECEMBER 3, 2018
TGB P1 12/18 SUPPLEMENT DATED DECEMBER 3, 2018 TO THE PROSPECTUSES DATED MAY 1, 2018 OF TEMPLETON GLOBAL BOND VIP FUND (a series of Franklin Templeton Variable Insurance Products Trust) The prospectus
More informationHSBC USA Inc. Barrier Digital Return Notes Linked to the Least Performing of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 Index
Filed Pursuant to Rule 433 Registration No. 333-223208 July 26, 2018 FREE WRITING PROSPECTUS (To Prospectus dated February 26, 2018, Prospectus Supplement dated February 26, 2018 and Equity Index Underlying
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationSUPPLEMENT TO CURRENT SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND PROSPECTUS
January 2, 2019 SUPPLEMENT TO CURRENT SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND PROSPECTUS (funds with BNY Mellon Asset Management North America Corporation as an adviser, subadviser or employer in a dual employment arrangement
More informationStrategic Asset Management
Strategic Asset Management A Time-Tested Investment Strategy Linsco/Private Ledger What s on your hori Financial independence. Funding a child s education. A secure retirement. zon? Whatever your destination,
More informationInvesco V.I. High Yield Fund
Prospectus April 30, 2018 Series I shares Invesco V.I. High Yield Fund Shares of the Fund are currently offered only to insurance company separate accounts funding variable annuity contracts and variable
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen
More informationCOLUMBIA SELECT SMALLER-CAP VALUE FUND
PROSPECTUS October 1, 2015 COLUMBIA SELECT SMALLER-CAP VALUE FUND CLASS Class A Shares Class B Shares Class C Shares Class I Shares Class K Shares Class R Shares Class R4 Shares Class R5 Shares Class Y
More informationInvesco V.I. Global Real Estate Fund
Prospectus April 30, 2018 Series II shares Invesco V.I. Global Real Estate Fund Shares of the Fund are currently offered only to insurance company separate accounts funding variable annuity contracts and
More informationOVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
More informationShort-term momentum: Will it be sustained?
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Projections published:20 Sept Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained? David TURNER Project LINK Meeting, UNCTAD in Geneva Oct 3-5, 2017 www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm
More informationInvesco Unit Trusts Closed-end strategies
Invesco Unit Trusts Closed-end strategies Celebrating 40 years in unit trusts About risk There is no assurance that a unit investment trust will achieve its investment objective. An investment in a unit
More informationThe Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market
Oct 09 Sep 10 Aug 11 Jul 12 Jun 13 May 14 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Basis Points Basis Points PERSPECTIVES The Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market May 2014
More informationTHOMAS WHITE INTERNATIONAL
THOMAS WHITE INTERNATIONAL Capturing Value Worldwide PORTFOLIO STRATEGY NOVEMBER 2017 Emerging Markets: Renewing The Promise KEY TAKEAWAYS We believe emerging market fundamentals are much healthier now,
More informationUnderstanding the sell-off in emerging market assets and get ready to be greedy
Understanding the sell-off in emerging market assets and get ready to be greedy The move higher in US interest rates and the US dollar was the catalyst for the sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets that
More informationMulti-Manager Emerging Markets Debt Opportunity Fund (NMEDX) 2Q 2018 Performance Review
NORTHERN FUNDS Multi-Manager Emerging Markets Debt Opportunity Fund (NMEDX) 2Q 2018 Performance Review June 30, 2018 Must be preceded or accompanied by a current prospectus Fund Facts Fund Objective: Total
More informationEmerging Markets: Diminishing Risks vs. Headline Fears
Emerging Markets: Diminishing Risks vs. Headline Fears June 15, 2018 by Laurent Saltiel, Sergey Davalchenko, Naveen Jayasundaram of AllianceBernstein Fears of new threats to emerging markets have cooled
More informationCOLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO SELECT SMALLER- CAP VALUE FUND
PROSPECTUS May 1, 2018 COLUMBIA VARIABLE PORTFOLIO SELECT SMALLER- CAP VALUE FUND The Fund may offer Class 1, Class 2 and Class 3 shares to separate accounts funding variable annuity contracts and variable
More informationSTRUCTURED INVESTMENTS Opportunities in U.S. and International Equities
January 2016 Preliminary Pricing Supplement No. 727 Registration Statement No. 333-200365 Dated December 29, 2015 Filed pursuant to Rule 424(b)(2) STRUCTURED INVESTMENTS Opportunities in U.S. and International
More informationRBC EMERGING MARKETS BOND FUND
FIXED-INCOME FUND June 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management Inc. ( RBC GAM ) The Board of Directors of RBC Global Asset Management Inc. approved this interim management report of fund
More informationAsia s Debt Risks The risk of financial crises is limited, but attention should be paid to slowing domestic demand.
Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis November 15, 218 Asia s Debt Risks The risk of financial crises is limited, but attention should be paid to slowing domestic demand. < Summary > Expanding private debt
More informationWEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 18, 2018 Are Rising Household Debt Concerns Warranted?
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 18, 2018 Are Rising Household Debt Concerns Warranted? Key takeaways» Concerns have risen about the
More informationKey takeaways. What it may mean for investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst
Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS May 8, 2018 Monetary Policy Divergence Could Last a Little Longer Key takeaways» Recent economic improvement
More informationAMANA MUTUAL FUNDS TRUST
AMANA MUTUAL FUNDS TRUST Amana Income Fund Amana Growth Fund Amana Developing World Fund Amana Participation Fund (each, a Fund ) Supplement dated December 22, 2017, to the Prospectus of Amana Mutual Funds
More informationInterest rates: How we got here and where we re going
SITUATION ANALYSIS Interest rates: How we got here and where we re going Summary Investors are understandably concerned about the state of the bond market today given that interest rates began moving sharply
More informationAutocallable Yield Notes
Filed Pursuant to Rule 433 Registration No. 333-223208 April 30, 2018 FREE WRITING PROSPECTUS (To Prospectus dated February 26, 2018, Prospectus Supplement dated February 26, 2018 and Equity Index Underlying
More informationChapter 6. Government Influence on Exchange Rates. Lecture Outline
Chapter 6 Government Influence on Exchange Rates Lecture Outline Exchange Rate Systems Fixed Exchange Rate System Freely Floating Exchange Rate System Managed Float Exchange Rate System Pegged Exchange
More informationSUMMARY PROSPECTUS SAAT Aggressive Strategy Fund (SSGAX) Class F
July 31, 2017 SUMMARY PROSPECTUS SAAT Aggressive Strategy Fund (SSGAX) Class F Before you invest, you may want to review the Fund s prospectus, which contains information about the Fund and its risks.
More information