Interest Rate Outlook: Above-Trend Growth Could Cause Us Inflation Later in 2018

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Interest Rate Outlook: Above-Trend Growth Could Cause Us Inflation Later in 2018"

Transcription

1 Interest Rate Outlook: Above-Trend Growth Could Cause Us Inflation Later in 2018 February 12, 2018 by Rob Waldner of Invesco Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on rates around the world US: We expect US interest rates to be range-bound in the first half of 2018, but with a risk of higher yields in the second half. Our rates view is driven by our analysis of growth, inflation and monetary policy in the US and globally. Our models estimate that US growth approached a near cycle high at just above % in the fourth quarter of Growth should remain strongly above trend at 2.75% in Inflation is likely to remain low for the first half of this year. Headwinds facing the housing and auto markets could drag down inflation, causing it to remain lower (around 1.8% ) than most have predicted in We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike rates twice this year, representing a gradual rate of policy tightening that is unlikely to impact the economy. However, if we see persistent wage Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

2 increases going forward, similar to the wage pickup in January, we may raise our inflation forecast for 2018 above our current expectation of 1.8%. Treasury supply may increase in 2018, driven by increased government spending and smaller Fed bond purchases as quantitative easing (QE) is tapered. This supply increase will likely present a headwind for yields later in the year. If our view on persistent low inflation is correct, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury should remain capped at around 2.65% in the first half of However, if wages continue to rise sharply, the Fed hiking cycle may extend into 2019 and 2020, and at a fasterthan-expected pace. Increased expectations of further rate hikes in the medium term and perceived higher inflation risk could steepen the US Treasury yield curve and push interest rates higher. Europe: The positive growth impulse continues in Europe, although euro-area inflation was less than forecast in December. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank (ECB) minutes presented an optimistic view on inflation and clear signs that forward guidance on QE tapering appears likely in the near future. Hawkish comments from policymakers have also dominated public debate recently, although some have raised concerns over the euro s strength. Bund yields have sold off slightly since the start of the year in a sign that the market is preparing for policy normalization. Some economists have also brought forward their estimates of when the ECB will set an end date for its bond-buying program. While no action is likely in January, we expect the ECB to announce an end date by June. China: China s onshore government bond yield curve bull steepened in January 2018, thanks to easier liquidity conditions and improved sentiment. The People s Bank of China (PBOC) has been somewhat more generous in terms of liquidity injection, but onshore investors remain cautious. This is reflected in the steeper 10-year part of the government yield curve. Financial regulatory tightening has pressured nonbank financial institutions, thus, we see limited room for the PBOC to tighten liquidity further from here. We continue to find attractive opportunities in onshore government bonds. If tax implications are considered, government bond yields are appealing compared to lending rates, in our view. With new asset management rules and liquidity management guidance in place, we expect demand for government bonds to pick up. Japan: The Japanese economy continues to perform well. Exports have especially benefited from increased global demand. We expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. In the near term, the market focus will likely be on spring wage negotiations. Prime Minister Abe is pushing companies to provide meaningful increases to create a virtuous circle of higher wages, higher demand and higher prices (i.e., the good type of inflation). However, there is a tendency for wage discussions to disappoint to the downside. We expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to remain on hold, and expect 10-year Japanese government bond yields to remain range-bound for now (0% to 0.1% ). However, the market could react sharply if the BOJ shows an inclination toward removing stimulus. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

3 UK: Brexit uncertainty continues to dampen business and consumer confidence, however, the economy is not collapsing despite negative real wage growth and slowing house price gains. Trade talks with the European Union (EU) are yet to get underway, but calls for a second referendum (on the final deal) are intensifying. With the clock ticking down on the UK s March 2019 departure date, our base case is that there will be a can kick, or delay in a final agreement. This could result in the UK s membership in the EU being temporarily extended. Signs that the status quo will remain for an additional two years or so would likely restore confidence and lead to implementation of deferred investment. Regarding monetary policy, we expect one rate hike in 2018 and one more in With Brexit edging closer to a more amicable solution and the global economy picking up, there is a growing probability that market participants will price in more hikes in the coming months. Canada: Employment growth has been strong enough that the Bank of Canada (BOC) hiked its overnight target rate to 1.25% in January. 1 The BOC statement attempted to balance the view that growth was near capacity with concerns that raising rates too quickly could cause the economic expansion to stall. The 10-year yield has broken through its previous peak of 2.15% on the growth story and a modest pickup in inflation. 2 We believe yields should continue to move higher from these levels. Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did not meet in January and thus issued no new statement. The strong December employment report marked two months of higher-than-expected job growth. The unemployment rate has ticked up but this was due to an increase in the participation rate, which is approaching an all-time high. Despite the strong employment numbers, wage inflation remains low. We remain neutral on Australian rates but continued strong economic data could put the RBA in play sooner than the market currently expects. India: Government bond yields have risen significantly since August after several upside inflation surprises. Inflation has been driven by higher food prices and upward pressure on rents caused by increased public employee housing allowances. We believe that inflation will likely hover around 5% during the first half of 2018 before reverting to 4.5% in the second half. We expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain a hawkish stance, but stay on hold through the first half of We also believe its next move will be a rate hike versus a cut. Given the lack of monetary support, it is likely that fiscal dynamics will be the key driver of interest rates going forward and we will be watching February s annual budget announcement closely. While we believe current rate levels are very attractive, we are waiting for more clarity on the fiscal outlook and indications from the RBI before investing in Indian interest rates. Rob Waldner, Chief Strategist; James Ong, Senior Macro Strategist; Noelle Corum, Associate Portfolio Manager; Reine Bitar, Macro Analyst; Yi Hu, Senior Analyst; Sean Connery, Portfolio Page, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

4 Manager; Brian Schneider, Head of North American Rates Portfolio Management; Alex Schwiersch, Portfolio Manager; Scott Case, Portfolio Manager; Amritpal Sidhu, Quantitative Analyst 1 Source: Bank of Canada, Jan. 17, Source: Bloomberg L.P., data as of Sept. 27, 2017 Source: Invesco Fixed Income estimates, Feb. 8, 2018 Robert B. Waldner, Jr., CFA Chief Strategist and Head of Multi-Sector Rob Waldner is Chief Strategist and Head of Multi-Sector for Invesco Fixed Income (IFI). Mr. Waldner has overall management responsibility for the IFI public credit asset class teams and the Multi-Sector team. In this role, he is responsible for oversight of the portfolio construction process for IFI s public security portfolios. Mr. Waldner chairs the IFI Investment Strategy team and is responsible for oversight of the overall IFI investment process. He joined Invesco in 201. Prior to joining Invesco, Mr. Waldner worked with Franklin Templeton for 17 years. At Franklin Templeton, he was a senior strategist and senior portfolio manager. He was the lead manager for Franklin absolute return strategies, and a member of the Fixed Income Policy Committee. Mr. Waldner was instrumental in the launch of a number of new strategies on the Franklin Templeton fixed income platform. Previously, Mr. Waldner was a member of the Macro team at Omega Advisors and a portfolio manager with Glaxo (Bermuda) Ltd. He entered the industry in Mr. Waldner earned a BSE degree in civil engineering from Princeton University, graduating magna cum laude in He is a CFA charterholder. Important information Blog header image: Thitisan/Shutterstock.com The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues. Fixed income investments are subject to credit risk of the issuer and the effects of changing interest rates. Interest rate risk refers to the risk that bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa. An issuer may be unable to meet interest and/or principal payments, thereby causing its instruments to decrease in value and lowering the issuer s credit rating. The performance of an investment concentrated in issuers of a certain region or country is expected to be closely tied to conditions within that region and to be more volatile than more geographically diversified investments. This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial advisor/financial consultant before making any investment Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

5 decisions. Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax professional for information concerning their individual situation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals. All data provided by Invesco unless otherwise noted. Invesco Distributors, Inc. is the US distributor for Invesco Ltd. s retail products and collective trust funds. Invesco Advisers, Inc. and other affiliated investment advisers mentioned provide investment advisory services and do not sell securities. Invesco Unit Investment Trusts are distributed by the sponsor, Invesco Capital Markets, Inc., and broker-dealers including Invesco Distributors, Inc. Each entity is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Invesco Ltd. PowerShares is a registered trademark of Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC, investment adviser. Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC (PowerShares) and Invesco Distributors, Inc., ETF distributor, are indirect, wholly owned subsidiaries of Invesco Ltd Invesco Ltd. All rights reserved. Interest rate outlook: Above-trend growth could cause US inflation later in 2018 by Invesco Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.

Are You Prepared for Rising Interest Rates?

Are You Prepared for Rising Interest Rates? Are You Prepared for Rising Interest Rates? May 21, 2018 by Jason Bloom of Invesco Defined maturity bond funds ETFs may provide a compelling option for a rising interest rate environment Interest rates

More information

Three Reasons to Consider Bank Stocks

Three Reasons to Consider Bank Stocks Three Reasons to Consider Bank Stocks July 3, 207 by Nick Kalivas of Invesco Valuations and regulations are among the trends that we re watching in this industry Bank stocks have spun their wheels for

More information

Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy

Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy Jan. 31, 2018 Contents 1 US tax reform in focus: Implications for macro and asset class performance 3 Interest rate outlook 5 Currency outlook 7 Global

More information

Venture Forth in Emerging Markets, but Be Cautious on Funding Risks

Venture Forth in Emerging Markets, but Be Cautious on Funding Risks Venture Forth in Emerging Markets, but Be Cautious on Funding Risks November 26, 2018 by Rashique Rahman of Invesco A tightening of financial conditions, led by US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and

More information

The US Debt Ceiling Saga Returns

The US Debt Ceiling Saga Returns The US Debt Ceiling Saga Returns August 21, 2017 by Justin Mandeville of Invesco US short-term bond markets could be choppy as Congress seeks to resolve the looming issue Once again, the US debt ceiling

More information

Global Economic and Market Outlook for Gavyn Davies, Chairman, Fulcrum Asset Management

Global Economic and Market Outlook for Gavyn Davies, Chairman, Fulcrum Asset Management Global Economic and Market Outlook for 2018 Gavyn Davies, Chairman, Fulcrum Asset Management After many years of persistent downgrades to consensus GDP forecasts, 2017 has seen the first upgrades since

More information

Global Economic Outlook - July 2018

Global Economic Outlook - July 2018 Global Economic Outlook - July 2018 July 5, 2018 by Carl Tannenbaum, Ryan James Boyle, Brian Liebovich, Vaibhav Tandon of Northern Trust The world economy generally performed well during the first half

More information

Sector Performance and Economic Cycles: When Do Sectors Have the Potential to Shine?

Sector Performance and Economic Cycles: When Do Sectors Have the Potential to Shine? Sector Performance and Economic Cycles: When Do Sectors Have the Potential to Shine? June 4, 2018 by Nick Kalivas of Invesco Where we stand in the economic cycle can have a measurable effect on sector

More information

What May LIBOR's Phase-Out Mean for Investors?

What May LIBOR's Phase-Out Mean for Investors? What May LIBOR's Phase-Out Mean for Investors? October 1, 2018 by Justin Mandeville, Jacob Habibi of Invesco In the past few years, the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) has faced well-publicized challenges.

More information

Adjusting to a Stronger Dollar and Weaker Oil Prices

Adjusting to a Stronger Dollar and Weaker Oil Prices 2 nd Quarter 2015 Adjusting to a Stronger Dollar and Weaker Oil Prices Most Americans are aware that the U.S. economy and markets are more frequently and deeply affected by global developments than was

More information

An Introduction to the Yield Curve and What it Means. Yield vs Maturity An Inverted Curve: January Percent (%)

An Introduction to the Yield Curve and What it Means. Yield vs Maturity An Inverted Curve: January Percent (%) CIO Educational Series SEPTEMBER 2018 Learning the Curve An Introduction to the Yield Curve and What it Means Authored by: Matthew Diczok, Fixed Income Strategist The yield curve has been a major focus

More information

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions. ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK JULY 2018 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Feeling the Pinch The world economy generally performed well during the first half of 2018. A handful of emerging markets struggled, but their problems were at least partially

More information

Insured Municipal Bonds May Offer Added Security for Investors

Insured Municipal Bonds May Offer Added Security for Investors Insured Municipal Bonds May Offer Added Security for Investors March 6, 2017 by Greg Rawls of Invesco If an issuer defaults, insurance firms can make sure your payments don t stop Puerto Rico s recent

More information

Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling

Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that

More information

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2017 Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth.

More information

2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY December 4 207 208 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXPECT BETTER GROWTH WORLDWIDE John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA Asset Allocation

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

October 2016 Market Update

October 2016 Market Update Market Update (10/2016) Allianz Investment Management LLC October 2016 Market Update Key Points The lack of further easing measures from both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are causing

More information

June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating

June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating Since the lows of 2011, global equities have rallied 30% while Earnings per Share remained flat. This has been the biggest mid-cycle re-rating of global

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

Equities vs. fixed income: timing asset allocation shifts

Equities vs. fixed income: timing asset allocation shifts Despite the economic environment remaining supportive, asset market volatility has risen as central bank liquidity is being withdrawn Concerns over the effects policy changes will have on fixed income

More information

Fed Delivers Another December Rate Hike

Fed Delivers Another December Rate Hike Fed Delivers Another December Rate Hike December 14, 2017 by Chris Molumphy of Franklin Templeton Investments The US Federal Reserve delivered another interest-rate hike at its December monetary policy

More information

2013 Fourth Quarter Equity Market Review

2013 Fourth Quarter Equity Market Review Market & Investment Insights 2013 Fourth Quarter Equity Market Review WILLIAM RIEGEL, HEAD OF EQUITY INVESTMENTS Article Highlights: U.S. stocks moved higher in the fourth quarter, capping the best year

More information

The Q2 Factor Winner? Small Cap.

The Q2 Factor Winner? Small Cap. The Q2 Factor Winner? Small Cap. July 23, 2018 by Nick Kalivas of Invesco As global risks grow, factor diversification may help investors stay prepared With fears of a trade war looming over global large-cap

More information

October 12, Dow 23,000 Target Achieved What Next? By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP

October 12, Dow 23,000 Target Achieved What Next? By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP October 12, 2017 Dow 23,000 Target Achieved What Next? By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP It is time to celebrate as the Dow approaches a multi-year target of 23,000. On October 5 th, the Dow reached 22,775, effectively

More information

Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan

Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan November 8, 2017 Bank of Japan Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan Speech at a Meeting with Business Leaders in Miyazaki Yukitoshi Funo Member of the Policy Board (English translation

More information

Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016

Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Q1 2016 The past year turned out to be a year where one of the oldest investment adages came true: Sell in May and go away, don t come back until St.

More information

November PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

November PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy November 2015 John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Theresa Miller Phone:

More information

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

Infrastructure Investing: From Concrete to Computer Chips

Infrastructure Investing: From Concrete to Computer Chips Infrastructure Investing: From Concrete to Computer Chips January 30, 2017 by Nick Clare of Invesco Learn why Invesco Unit Trusts views information technology as a critical part of the infrastructure category

More information

Australian Dollar Outlook

Australian Dollar Outlook Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end

More information

G10 FX Week Ahead: Waiting for the ECB

G10 FX Week Ahead: Waiting for the ECB Economic and Financial Analysis 23 October 2017 FX 23 October 2017 Article G10 FX Week Ahead: Waiting for the ECB The key focus for FX markets is the ECB meeting on Thursday. Here's our view of major currency

More information

Interest Rate Forecast

Interest Rate Forecast Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend

More information

Market volatility to continue

Market volatility to continue How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?

More information

Global Economic Outlook - July 2017

Global Economic Outlook - July 2017 Global Economic Outlook - July 2017 June 28, 2017 by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital, Brian Liebovich of Northern Trust Global economic activity has generally been good during the first six

More information

2014 Annual Review & Outlook

2014 Annual Review & Outlook 2014 Annual Review & Outlook As we enter 2014, the current economic expansion is 4.5 years in duration, roughly the average life of U.S. economic expansions. There is every reason to believe it will continue,

More information

WILL YIELDS KEEP RISING?

WILL YIELDS KEEP RISING? LPL RESEARCH B O N D MARKET PERSPECTIVES February 6 2018 WILL YIELDS KEEP RISING? John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Colin Allen, CFA Assistant Vice President, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS

More information

Financial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound

Financial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond

More information

RI GFOA. May 17, Michael Morin, CFA SVP, Head of Liquidity Management Solutions. Jim Scalisi Vice President Relationship Manager

RI GFOA. May 17, Michael Morin, CFA SVP, Head of Liquidity Management Solutions. Jim Scalisi Vice President Relationship Manager RI GFOA May 17, 2018 Michael Morin, CFA SVP, Head of Liquidity Management Solutions Jim Scalisi Vice President Relationship Manager Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee Not NCUA or NCUSIF

More information

Financial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised

Financial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

Weekly Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist

More information

Distribution Number 26

Distribution Number 26 Distribution Number 26 Multi-Index Income 4 Fund (a Sub-fund of Legal and General Multi-Index Funds) Interim Manager s Short Report for the period ended 15 February 2018 Investment Objective and Policy

More information

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB

More information

Remarks on the 2018 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook

Remarks on the 2018 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook Remarks on the 2018 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook James Bullard President and CEO 29th Annual Economic Outlook Conference Gatton College of Business and Economics University of Kentucky Feb. 6, 2018 Lexington,

More information

2019: A Mixed Picture for the Global Economy

2019: A Mixed Picture for the Global Economy Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS 2019: A Mixed Picture for the Global Economy January 2, 2019 Key takeaways» We believe U.S. economic growth

More information

PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook

PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook September 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stocks likely to Remain in Modest Uptrend with Low Rates & Plentiful Liquidity, Improving

More information

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global

More information

Interest rates: How we got here and where we re going

Interest rates: How we got here and where we re going SITUATION ANALYSIS Interest rates: How we got here and where we re going Summary Investors are understandably concerned about the state of the bond market today given that interest rates began moving sharply

More information

Concerned About Interest Rates Rising? Consider Convertibles

Concerned About Interest Rates Rising? Consider Convertibles Concerned About Interest Rates Rising? Consider Convertibles August 4, 2015 by Sponsored Content from Invesco Over the past few months, several major companies involved in the automotive, telecommunications,

More information

EXCHANGE RATE FORECASTS

EXCHANGE RATE FORECASTS April 2014 EXCHANGE RATE FORECASTS MODEST ROOM FOR A STRONGER U.S. DOLLAR IN 2014-2015 AFTER 2013 S LARGE GAINS U.S. Dollar: The dollar index has inched higher in 2014 as the dollar strengthened against

More information

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations

More information

Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014

Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Economic Outlook Global Growth Strengthens as U.S. & U.K. GDP Growth

More information

Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus

Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying

More information

The Direction of Interest Rates

The Direction of Interest Rates December 2018 Ted Hospodar Colin Callahan Jameson Love 333 S. Grand Ave., 18th Floor Los Angeles, CA 90071 (213) 633-8200 Annual Change (domestic currency) The Direction of Interest Rates Markets do not

More information

Invesco Fixed Income White Paper Series Global Investors Summit November 2016

Invesco Fixed Income White Paper Series Global Investors Summit November 2016 Invesco Fixed Income White Paper Series Global Investors Summit November 2016 December, 2016 Invesco Fixed Income (IFI) held its semi-annual Global Investors Summit in November, gathering around 80 of

More information

For personal use only

For personal use only AMYF SERIES QUARTERLY UPDATE 1 OCTOBER 2016 31 DECEMBER 2016 SUMMARY AUSTRALIAN MASTERS YIELD FUND SERIES (AMYF SERIES) HIGHLIGHTS AMYF Series announced the following quarterly dividends and capital returns:

More information

Beyond The realm Of possibilities

Beyond The realm Of possibilities Beyond The realm Of possibilities 2013 2nd Quarter Report Table of Contents - Outlook of U.S. Real Estate 3-16 - Products Performance Review 17-20 - Performance: DFSP Series 21-24 - Market Outlook 25-28

More information

NESGFOA Economic Assessment Impact on Rates

NESGFOA Economic Assessment Impact on Rates NESGFOA Economic Assessment Impact on Rates September 18, 2017 Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee. For institutional

More information

Table 1: Economic Growth Measures

Table 1: Economic Growth Measures US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning

More information

May PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

May PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy May 2016 Stocks under Shadow of Brexit Risk & Weak Earnings but likely to Grind Higher with Central Bank Put. Bonds

More information

Franklin Flexible Alpha Bond Fund A (acc) USD

Franklin Flexible Alpha Bond Fund A (acc) USD Franklin Flexible Alpha Bond Fund A (acc) USD Franklin Templeton Investment Funds Fund Manager Report Absolute Return Fixed Income Product Details 1 Fund Assets $484799701.66 Fund Inception Date 18/03/2016

More information

Global Investment Outlook

Global Investment Outlook PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook 2015 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook Stocks likely to Post Solid Gains in 2015 Fuelled by Fresh QE Stimulus in Eurozone

More information

EMPLOYMENT REPORT (MAY)

EMPLOYMENT REPORT (MAY) LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY May 30 2017 JUNE PREVIEW Matthew E. Peterson Chief Wealth Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS June

More information

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist. March 13, 2018

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist. March 13, 2018 Global Economics Monthly Review March 13, 2018 Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please note that we will not publish the monthly review

More information

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014)

Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014) April 30, 2014 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014) The Bank's View 1 Summary From fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2016, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace

More information

The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets

The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets Nick Bennenbroek The State Of Global FX Markets Nick Bennenbroek Head of Currency Strategy June 2015 Please see the disclosure appendix of this publication

More information

CLWYD PENSION FUND INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL MARKETS

CLWYD PENSION FUND INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL MARKETS CLWYD PENSION FUND INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL MARKETS NOVEMBER 2018 CONTENTS AGENDA Performance 3 Risk Management 6 Market Conditions and Outlook 9 2019 Investment Strategy Review 16 Questions

More information

Interest rates: How we got here and where we re going

Interest rates: How we got here and where we re going Interest rates: How we got here and where we re going Prepared July 5, 2013 Summary Investors are understandably concerned about the state of the bond market today given that interest rates began moving

More information

Fixed income market update

Fixed income market update April 1, 216 Fixed income market update Taplin, Canida & Habacht, LLC BMO Global Asset Management 11 Brickell Bay Drive Suite 21 Miami, Florida 33131 p 35-379-21 f 35-379-4452 tchinc.com Fixed income market

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report III/2018) Meeting with Analysts Karel Musil Prague, 3 August 2018 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous

More information

YIELD CURVE INVERSION: A CLEAR BUT UNLIKELY DANGER

YIELD CURVE INVERSION: A CLEAR BUT UNLIKELY DANGER 1-year minus -year UST (%) INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMENTARY YIELD CURVE INVERSION: A CLEAR BUT UNLIKELY DANGER December 4, 17 Investors focus on the yield curve with good reason an inverted curve has historically

More information

Getting Smart About Beta

Getting Smart About Beta Getting Smart About Beta December 1, 2015 by Sponsored Content from Invesco Due to its simplicity, market-cap weighting has long been a popular means of calculating the value of market indexes. But as

More information

Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy. Global macro strategy Investing in an uncertain environment

Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy. Global macro strategy Investing in an uncertain environment Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy Sept. 27, 2017 Contents 1 Investing in an uncertain environment 3 Interest rate outlook 4 Currency outlook 5 Global investment themes 8 Credit valuations

More information

Global Inflation. Set to surprise on the upside lifting long-dated inflation pricing. 27 October /

Global Inflation. Set to surprise on the upside lifting long-dated inflation pricing. 27 October / Global Inflation Set to surprise on the upside lifting long-dated inflation pricing Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg Mikael Olai Milhøj Senior Analyst, Euro area macro research Senior Analyst, US and UK macro

More information

BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook

BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is

More information

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 2015 & 2016 John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 2015 & 2016 John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY October 1 15 GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 15 & 16 John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS As companies report third

More information

Why is Investor Confidence Lagging?

Why is Investor Confidence Lagging? Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Why is Investor Confidence Lagging? July 3, 2018 Key takeaways» Typically, late in the economic cycle, we

More information

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy April 2017 Stock Markets likely to Grind Higher as Expectations of Strong Earnings Growth & Improving Global GDP

More information

Economic Outlook Spring 2014

Economic Outlook Spring 2014 Economic Outlook Spring 2014 Accelerating Economic Growth Ahead FROM ANTHONY CHAN, PHD, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR CHASE Summary After a strong 2013 finish with U.S. and European stock markets posting double-digit

More information

Capital Markets Review First Quarter 2015

Capital Markets Review First Quarter 2015 Capital Markets Review First Quarter 2015 First-quarter 2015 saw a meaningful increase in volatility across asset classes, as numerous global forces continued to evolve. Everything from stocks and bonds

More information

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an

More information

WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?

WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 7 216 WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS

More information

> Macro Investment Outlook

> Macro Investment Outlook > Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9

More information

Q Quarterly Market Update Video

Q Quarterly Market Update Video Q2 2015 Quarterly Market Update Video Hello, I m Dirk Hofschire of Fidelity Investments. On behalf of my colleagues in the asset allocation research team, I d like to share with you some of our perspectives

More information

Financial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity

Financial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Further Stock Gains with Macro Sweet Spot & Earnings Recovery.

More information

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:

More information

Goldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios Investment Outlook

Goldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios Investment Outlook Goldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios Investment Outlook Overview The Goldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios are managed by the Global Portfolio Solutions (GPS) team. 1 GPS has been designing customized

More information

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH

GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS The IMF will release its World Economic Outlook this week, which will garner plenty of attention in the financial media. As first quarter earnings

More information

The Wage Conundrum. coming months but likely fade as the year comes to a close. Chart 1. U.S., Eurozone and Japanese Core Inflation Remains Subdued

The Wage Conundrum. coming months but likely fade as the year comes to a close. Chart 1. U.S., Eurozone and Japanese Core Inflation Remains Subdued Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS The Wage Conundrum September, 17 Key Takeaways» Some market participants have taken the recent rebound in

More information

Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios

Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity

More information

AUGUST EMPLOYMENT REPORT REVIEW

AUGUST EMPLOYMENT REPORT REVIEW LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY September 5 2017 SEPTEMBER PREVIEW TIME FOR VOLATILITY? Matthew E. Peterson Chief Wealth Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, LPL

More information

Economic Outlook. DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months

Economic Outlook. DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months Economic Outlook DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months GDP growth will be modest at approximately 2.5%, but the economy will experience periods of unstable growth. Consumer confidence will improve as

More information

Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy

Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy Dec. 20, 2017 Contents 1 Global inflation: stabilizing but not accelerating 4 Interest rate outlook 6 Currency outlook 7 Global investment themes 10 What

More information

Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy

Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy Invesco Fixed Income Global Fixed Income Strategy Dec. 20, 2017 Contents 1 Global inflation: stabilizing but not accelerating 4 Interest rate outlook 6 Currency outlook 7 Global investment themes 10 What

More information

Global Equities PUTTING RECENT MARKET VOLATILITY IN PERSPECTIVE

Global Equities PUTTING RECENT MARKET VOLATILITY IN PERSPECTIVE PRICE POINT February 2018 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Global Equities PUTTING RECENT MARKET VOLATILITY IN PERSPECTIVE KEY POINTS The upswing in equity market volatility can be attributed

More information

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS SUMMER 2017 GLOBAL FIXED INCOME MARKETS Direction of rates Soo Boo Cheah, MBA, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited Suzanne Gaynor V.P. & Senior Portfolio Manager RBC Global

More information

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions. ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Fourth Quarter 2016 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.

More information