Emerging Markets: Diminishing Risks vs. Headline Fears
|
|
- Emily Miles
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Emerging Markets: Diminishing Risks vs. Headline Fears June 15, 2018 by Laurent Saltiel, Sergey Davalchenko, Naveen Jayasundaram of AllianceBernstein Fears of new threats to emerging markets have cooled stock returns after two years of hot performance. But the concerns may be overstated. The long-term risk profile of emerging markets is continuing to improve. Growing risks to emerging markets are making headlines. Turkey s currency crisis, expectations of US interest-rate hikes and a stronger US dollar are seen as big threats to developing markets. US China trade tensions have added to the anxiety. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has dropped by 1.2% in US-dollar terms through June 13 after surging by a cumulative 52.6% in 2016 and Investors withdrew $2.7 billion from US-domiciled emerging-market (EM) equity funds in May, reversing 17 consecutive months of positive flows, according to data from Morningstar. The panic may be premature. When viewed through a long-term lens, we think macroeconomic and market fundamentals provide solid ground for EM companies to deliver results and for investors to prosper. EM Volatility Has Been Declining Headlines about EM risks are unsettling, yet they tend to obscure declining volatility in EM stock markets. In the past, EM stocks were more volatile than developed-market stocks, as investors perceived them to be much riskier. But even though US market volatility spiked this year, EM volatility has been relatively subdued (Display). Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 Why the change? Consider the composition of the benchmark. Over the last 10 years, the weight of highly cyclical sectors such as energy and materials in the MSCI Emerging Markets has dropped dramatically (Display). Meanwhile, technology stocks have become the largest sector weight. This change has reduced the economic sensitivity and risk profile of EM equities. Yet the MSCI Emerging Markets trades at a price/forward earnings ratio of 11.6x, a 25% discount to global developed stocks, suggesting that investors still believe developing stocks are significantly riskier. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 Big Improvements to Deficits and Debt That perception is rooted in historical experience that may be obsolete. In the past, rising US interest rates and a stronger US dollar were bad for EM assets. But we believe that emerging markets are less vulnerable to external shocks today. Inflation is under control in many countries, which fosters low domestic interest rates. EM currencies are more competitive and external balances are much healthier (Display), with rising foreign investment and less dollar-denominated debt. As a result, rising US interest rates or a stronger dollar won t have the same impact on EM countries and companies as in the past, in our view. Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 What about US China trade tensions? Our research suggests that US tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods would affect China s GDP growth by about 0.1%. While some export-oriented steel and industrial companies could suffer, we think the broader impact on China s vast economy would be negligible. China s Banking Fears Dissipate China s banking system has long been seen as a tinderbox. Yet here, too, we think the risks have diminished. Over the last two years, regulators have reined in the growth of the shadow banking system and throttled credit growth toward nominal GDP growth. We believe that slower credit growth, along with government initiatives to reduce capacity in old economy sectors like steel to focus on the environment, should help improve credit quality for the industrial sector. In addition, an increasing focus on profitable retail banking businesses could provide another boost to lenders return on equity. This would further buttress a sector that was seen as a potential destabilizing force for years. Political Risk: It s Not All About Turkey China s new focus on environmental issues reflects the government s commitment to pursuing sustainability as a key component of stable long-term growth. These changes have been driven in part by President Xi Jinping s moves to consolidate power and to marginalize factions of the communist party that may disagree with his policies. In our view, this shift indicates that political risk is declining in Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 the world s second-largest economy. Beyond China, politics are a diminishing risk factor in other major EM countries such as India and Indonesia. Narendra Modi, who became India s prime minister four years ago, has inspired investor confidence by tackling complex reforms, ranging from anticorruption moves to foreign investment restrictions. Indonesia s pro-reform government is also attracting foreign investment and developing infrastructure, while maintaining flexibility to adjust near-term policies to new market challenges. Still, political turmoil in Turkey, Argentina and Brazil has shaken confidence. We believe that these cases demonstrate that EM countries are not homogenous: Turkish stocks have tumbled 22% this year, while Chinese stocks advanced 2.2% through the end of May. Investors must be risk aware and selective by avoiding EM companies that could be adversely affected by heightened political risk in their home countries. Lower Risk Differential, Stronger Growth Profile Of course, there are real risks in emerging markets; it would be foolish to think otherwise. But the fact that a business is exposed to EM dynamics does not necessarily make it riskier. EM countries aren t uniform and attractive opportunities can be found in diverse companies with business profiles that aren t directly exposed to the risks. What s more, we think the risk differential between emerging and developed markets is much lower than in the past, while emerging markets still offer superior growth potential. To identify stocks with strong growth profiles and unappreciated return potential, focus on company fundamentals and block out some of the headline noise. The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. AllianceBernstein L.P. Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Market E-digest October 2018 Issue
Market E-digest October 2018 Issue A) Emerging Markets: Diminishing Risks VS. Fears Emerging market (EM) economies are facing a number of insecurities. Investors have grown increasingly concerned about
More informationAfter a strong 2017, emerging markets ( EM ) equities have struggled to keep pace with their U.S. counterparts in 2018.
Perspectives SEPT 2018 Emerging Markets Equity Reason for Concern? After a strong 2017, emerging markets ( EM ) equities have struggled to keep pace with their U.S. counterparts in 2018. Year-to-date through
More informationEmerging Markets Equities VALUE COULD EXTEND THE EMERGING MARKETS RALLY
PRICE POINT December 2017 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Emerging Markets Equities VALUE COULD EXTEND THE EMERGING MARKETS RALLY KEY POINTS Emerging markets (EM) equities have extended
More informationEmerging Markets Q3 Recap: Sentiment Remains Strong
Emerging Markets Q3 Recap: Sentiment Remains Strong October 18, 2016 by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments Templeton Emerging Markets Group has a wide investment universe to cover tens of thousands
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations
More informationModerate but continued growth expected for global steel demand
PRESS RELEASE Moderate but continued growth expected for global steel demand worldsteel Short Range Outlook October 2017 Brussels, 16 October 2017 - The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released
More informationEmerging markets: where do we go from here?
March 216 FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY Emerging markets: where do we go from here? It has been a difficult few years for emerging markets. Having been beset by challenges from
More informationVenture Forth in Emerging Markets, but Be Cautious on Funding Risks
Venture Forth in Emerging Markets, but Be Cautious on Funding Risks November 26, 2018 by Rashique Rahman of Invesco A tightening of financial conditions, led by US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and
More informationInvestment. Insights. Emerging Markets. Invesco Global Equity. A 2012 outlook
Investment Insights Invesco Global Equity Emerging Markets A 2012 outlook Ingrid Baker Portfolio Manager Invesco Global Equity Many investors have watched from the sidelines as emerging market equities
More informationThe Case for Emerging Markets
The Case for Emerging Markets Economic recovery, low inflation, weak currencies, and reasonable valuations bode well for emerging markets 213 215 216 Present The Future Weakening Global Trade China Slowing
More informationCountry Risk Analytics
Emerging Markets Country Risk Analytics MacroFinance Research Quarterly - 2018 Q2 www.taceconomics.com www.taceconomics.com 2 Country Risk Analytics EM Quarterly MacroFinance Research 2018 Q2 Description
More informationHIGH UNCERTAINTY WEIGHING ON GLOBAL GROWTH
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WEIGHING ON GLOBAL GROWTH Summary The expansion may now have peaked. Global growth is projected to settle at 3.7% in 2018 and 2019, marginally below pre-crisis norms, with downside risks
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationWary of Emerging-Market Debt in 2019? You Shouldn t Be.
Wary of Emerging-Market Debt in 2019? You Shouldn t Be. January 2, 2019 by Shamaila Khan, Christian DiClementi of AllianceBernstein There s no sugarcoating it: 2018 was hard on emerging markets. But as
More informationOf Currencies, Trade and Other Clouds
Of Currencies, Trade and Other Clouds August 15, 2018 by Chetan Sehgal of Franklin Templeton Investments Emerging markets have struggled in the first half of this year amid a storm of uncertainties. Franklin
More informationFUND MANAGEMENT DIARY Meeting held on 31 st July 2018
FUND MANAGEMENT DIARY Meeting held on 31 st July 2018 Why are EMs less vulnerable to external shocks? Previous financial crises in emerging markets have typically been caused by a build-up of external
More informationAsia s Debt Risks The risk of financial crises is limited, but attention should be paid to slowing domestic demand.
Mizuho Economic Outlook & Analysis November 15, 218 Asia s Debt Risks The risk of financial crises is limited, but attention should be paid to slowing domestic demand. < Summary > Expanding private debt
More informationEmerging Markets: Broader opportunities and declining systematic risk
June 2013 Emerging Markets: Broader opportunities and declining systematic risk Favorable outlook for emerging markets equity and debt Alexander Muromcew, Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL
GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL Aaron Institute for Economic Policy Annual Conference May 4, 217 Craig Beaumont, European Department, IMF Outline World economic outlook (WEO) Broader trends
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Fourth Quarter 2016 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationMonetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author
More informationAIMM Sector Framework Brief Sector Economics and Development Impact Department International Finance Corporation
AIMM Sector Framework Brief Sector Economics and Development Impact Department International Finance Corporation FUNDS February 2019 Development Impact Thesis IFC s investments in funds help address the
More informationAre Emerging Markets Just Getting Started?
Are Emerging Markets Just Getting Started? September 27, 2016 by Robert Sharpe of Heartland Advisors Talking Points: Despite recent strength, emerging markets (EM) appear to have room to run. Stable currencies
More informationEconomic Update February 2014
Allianz SE Economic Research https://www.allianz.com/economic-research/en Economic Update February 2014 Claudia Broyer Phone +49.69.24431-3667 claudia.broyer@allianz.com Ann-Katrin Petersen Phone +49.69.24431-3790
More informationEP Emerging Markets Small Companies Fund Class A: EPASX Class I: EPEIX
EP Emerging Markets Small Companies Fund Class A: EPASX Class I: EPEIX Summary Prospectus March 6, 2018, as amended December 4, 2018 Before you invest, you may want to review the Fund s prospectus, which
More informationGlobal Update. 6 th October, Global Prospects. Contacts: Madan Sabnavis Chief Economist
Global Update Global Prospects 6 th October, 2010 Contacts: Madan Sabnavis Chief Economist 91-022-6754 3489 Samruddha Paradkar Associate Economist 91-022-6754 3407 Krithika Subramanian Associate Economist
More informationInvestment Strategy On-Demand Webinar Series
Investment Strategy On-Demand Webinar Series U.S. Dollar Emerging Market Debt Jas Thandi, Hewitt EnnisKnupp USD Emerging Market Bonds Have Cheapened Relative to U.S. Bonds 10 Emerging bonds have cheapened
More informationChina Economic Quarterly
August 2016 Major economic indicators p1 /Policy updates p5 /Hot topic analysis p6 China Economic Quarterly www.pwccn.com/ceq Content I. Major economic indicators 1 II. Policy updates 5 III. Hot topic
More informationOECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook
ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial
More informationEmerging-Market Resilience
Emerging-Market Resilience September 16, 2016 by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments While prospects at the start of 2016 seemed rather dour for emerging markets, resilience has been the story
More informationThe Turkish Economy. Dynamics of Growth
The Economy in Turkey in 2018 2018 1 The Turkish Economy The Turkish economy grew at a rate of 3.2% in 2016, largely due to the attempted coup and terror attacks. The outlook was negative in the beginning
More informationA Country Picker's Market
A Country Picker's Market February 12, 2018 by Christopher Dhanraj of ishares It s a country picker s market. The most synchronized global economy in a decade comes with an unusual counterpart: the most
More informationShadow Banking May 16, 2017
Global Risk Institute Shadow Banking May 16, 2017 Sheila Judd Executive in Residence Presentation Purpose Share information/research findings on the topic, including GRI recommendations for industry oversight:
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2016 Economic overview Economies around the world appear to be relatively resilient, with data signalling that in many countries, economic activities are expanding
More informationDavis International Fund
DIF ANNUAL REVIEW 2019 Davis International Fund Update from Portfolio Manager Danton Goei The Equity Specialists Davis International Fund Annual Review 2019 Investment Results Davis International Fund
More informationIndia: The Next China?
BY ERIK NORLAND, SENIOR ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, CME GROUP JUNE 1 India: The Next China? All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation
More informationMexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document
More informationStrategic Allocaiton to High Yield Corporate Bonds Why Now?
Strategic Allocaiton to High Yield Corporate Bonds Why Now? May 11, 2015 by Matthew Kennedy of Rainier Investment Management HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BONDS - WHY NOW? The demand for higher yielding fixed income
More informationPeru: Revised Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework
Peru: Revised Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework 2017-2019 Executive Summary The Revised Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework (Revised MMF) presents the government s official projections, and was approved
More informationGETTING STRONGER, BUT TENSIONS ARE RISING
GETTING STRONGER, BUT TENSIONS ARE RISING Summary The world economy will continue to strengthen in 2018 and 2019, with global GDP growth projected to rise to about 4%, from 3.7% in 2017. Stronger investment,
More informationFIVE KEYS TO EMERGING MARKET OUTLOOK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS We favor emerging market and U.S. equities for tactical asset allocations based primarily on our outlooks for global economic growth and earnings. We
More informationAsia Equities DESPITE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, ASIA LEADING GLOBAL MARKETS
PRICE POINT November 2017 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Asia Equities DESPITE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, ASIA LEADING GLOBAL MARKETS KEY POINTS Anh Lu Portfolio Manager, New Asia Fund Asian
More informationWhat Is Behind the Equity Sell-Off?
IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE E QUITY MARKETS Investment Strategy Team What Is Behind the Equity Sell-Off? March 26, 2018 Key takeaways» Investors are concerned about the negative implications of a potential
More informationWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2018 Research Department, International Monetary Fund
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2018 Research Department, International Monetary Fund Global activity has gained further momentum Global growth picked up further in 2017H2; outlook is for higher annual
More informationQuarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2018
POOLED PENSIONS Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2018 Economic overview As the quarter progressed, investors became increasingly concerned about the outlook for the world economy. The perception was
More informationAsset Allocation THE CHANGING FACE OF EMERGING MARKETS
PRICE PERSPECTIVE February 218 In-depth analysis and insights to inform your decision-making. Asset Allocation THE CHANGING FACE OF EMERGING MARKETS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Emerging markets have evolved, and
More informationAttractive fundamentals in the face of ongoing market volatility
Canada Outlook October 2018 Attractive fundamentals in the face of ongoing market volatility HSBC outlook Our growth outlook is tempered by concerns about politics, trade tensions and some emerging markets
More informationGovernor's Statement No. 22 October 12, Statement by the Hon. SUBHASH CHANDRA GARG, Governor of the Fund and the Bank for INDIA
Governor's Statement No. 22 October 12, 2018 Statement by the Hon. SUBHASH CHANDRA GARG, Governor of the Fund and the Bank for INDIA Statement by the Hon. Subhash Chandra Garg, Governor of the Fund and
More informationEmerging Markets: Compelling Long-Term Value or Value Trap?
INSIGHTS Emerging Markets: Compelling Long-Term Value or Value Trap? November 2015 203.621.1700 2015, Rocaton Investment Advisors, LLC EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Emerging market asset classes, primarily equities
More informationThe Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market
Oct 09 Sep 10 Aug 11 Jul 12 Jun 13 May 14 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Basis Points Basis Points PERSPECTIVES The Fertile Soil of Corporate Bond Market May 2014
More informationEconomic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014)
Economic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014) Our economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014 for the U.S. is continued slow growth. We stated in our 3 rd quarter Economic
More informationWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 Andreas Bauer Sr Resident Representative @imf_delhi World Economic Outlook The big picture Global activity picked up further in 2017H1 the outlook is now for higher
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 1st Quarter 2017 Economic overview Data appears to signal that economic activity is picking up around the world, with many forecasts for growth being revised upwards. This has
More informationLazard Insights. China A-Shares: A New Chapter for EM Investors. Summary. John Burge, Director, Product Manager
Lazard Insights China A-Shares: A New Chapter for EM Investors John Burge, Director, Product Manager Summary MSCI s recent announcement regarding A-share inclusion in the Emerging Markets Index opens a
More informationFISCAL COUNCIL OPINION ON THE SUMMER FORECAST 2018 OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE
FISCAL COUNCIL OPINION ON THE SUMMER FORECAST 2018 OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE September 2018 Contents Opinion... 3 Explanatory Report... 4 Opinion on the summer forecast 2018 of the Ministry of Finance...
More informationEmerging Markets Race Ahead in January
Investment Team Update 15 February 2019 Emerging Markets Race Ahead in January EMERGING MARKETS INSIGHTS Three Things We re Thinking About Today 1. As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) left
More informationBond Basics July 2007
Bond Basics: Emerging Market (External and Local Markets) Developing economies around the world, known to investors as emerging markets (EM), are rapidly maturing into key players in the global economy
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK : THE YEAR AHEAD FOR INDONESIA
INDONESIA RENDEZVOUS 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK : THE YEAR AHEAD FOR INDONESIA Azka Subhan A. Deputy of Director to Bank Indonesia Representative Office for Bali Province Bali, October 25, 2018 Slide 1 JBW1
More informationSinology KEY QUESTIONS FOR CHINA INVESTORS IN 2015 PART II. by Andy Rothman. Why Do I Keep Saying China Won t Ease this Year?
Sinology by Andy Rothman February 19, 2015 a In the second of a threepart series, Sinology answers some of the key questions investors should be asking about China in 2015. a We are witnessing the odd
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook September 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stocks likely to Remain in Modest Uptrend with Low Rates & Plentiful Liquidity, Improving
More informationFund Management Diary
Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 18 th September 2018 Turkish crisis leading to recession Falls in the lira have caused a sharp pick-up in inflation which, coupled with a severe tightening of financial
More informationING Investment Office Publication date: 15 August :50 p.m.
ING Investment Office Publication date: 15 August 2018 12:50 p.m. July August Asset allocation - + GDP growth and profits provide important support for the markets Equities Real estate Commodities Alternatives
More informationTempleton International Bond Fund. Class C
Templeton International Bond Fund Class A, C Unconstrained Fixed Income Product Profile Product Details 1 Fund Assets $360,795,665.52 Fund Inception Date 12/03/2007 Number of Securities 124 Including Cash
More informationHas the China Collapse Finally Arrived?
Has the China Collapse Finally Arrived? January 24, 2019 by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia China has been on the verge of a hard landing for many years, according to some analysts. Will they finally be
More informationFund Management Diary
Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 11 th December 2018 Losing Momentum After a strong start to the year, global growth peaked in the first of 2018 and doesn t look like regaining momentum. Trade tensions
More informationASEAN Insights: Regional trends
ASEAN Insights: Regional trends March 2018 1. Global trends BUSINESS AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ROBUST; US FED HIKES RATES; EQUITY MARKETS FALL The global economic environment remained positive this month.
More informationTHE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS LESSONS FOR FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS LESSONS FOR FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM Ulrich Volz, German Development Institute (DIE) ICRIER-InWEnt Workshop on Current Developments in the Indian Financial System New Delhi,
More information2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY December 4 207 208 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXPECT BETTER GROWTH WORLDWIDE John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA Asset Allocation
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationEaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Funds
Monthly Review March 208 Eaton Vance Funds Market Update Markets across the world were mixed throughout the month of March as global equities experienced negative performance while global bond markets
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK: FAVOR U.S.; STICK WITH EM
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS U.S. economic and earnings growth continue to stand out globally and support our positive view of U.S. equities. We continue to see upside potential
More informationFinding Opportunities in Volatility
Investment Team Update August 31, 2018 Finding Opportunities in Volatility EMERGING MARKETS INSIGHTS Three Things We re Thinking About Today 1. Sharp falls in the Turkish lira and Argentine peso stoked
More informationIndia s macroeconomic trends: some issues. New Delhi, 9 th February, 2015
India s macroeconomic trends: some issues New Delhi, 9 th February, 2015 Make in India or Make for India? Is a policy of aggressive export led growth on the lines of China viable? Diminished global demand
More informationOutlook 2013: China. Growth expected to accelerate again
Outlook 13: China Growth expected to accelerate again Weakened external demand and only limited growth supporting policies from the Chinese government were the main factors explaining China s slowing growth
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationShort exposure to US equities, used as a risk hedge. Exposure to commodities
Portfolio performance The Fund is designed to serve as a Third Pillar strategy, aiming to provide a diversified return stream versus traditional stock/bond-centric approaches. In seeking a long-term real
More informationEuro area activity surges
Global Outlook: Stable Growth as Uncertainty Wanes BY STEPHEN CICCARELLA AUGUST 3, 2017 www.economy.com Global Outlook: Stable Growth as Uncertainty Wanes By Stephen Ciccarella AUGUST 03, 2017 View the
More informationBakış. Macro Trends in the Turkish and World Economy. Issue 10 April kpmg.com.tr
Bakış Macro Trends in the Turkish and World Economy Issue 10 April 2018 kpmg.com.tr General outlook Murat Alsan Chairman, KPMG Turkey We indicated in our previous Bakış issued in January that the world
More informationOpportunities amid market volatility. Citibank Wealth Management Investment Pulse
02 2014 Opportunities amid market volatility In January, market volatility increased substantially as investors are wary that liquidity outflow from emerging markets may pose a threat on global growth.
More informationWHAT GLOBAL SYNCHRONIZED EXPANSION?
Special Commentary Written by Leo Goldstein WHAT GLOBAL SYNCHRONIZED EXPANSION? LEO GOLDSTEIN Senior Research Analyst JAMES F. KEEGAN Chairman and Chief Investment Officer Seix Investment Advisors is an
More informationThree Things We re Thinking about Today
PERSPECTIVE October 20, 2017 Templeton Emerging Markets Group has a wide investment universe to cover tens of thousands of companies in markets on nearly every continent. While we are bottom-up investors,
More informationEastspring Investments Funds Monthly Income Plan
Factsheet Singapore October 2018 All data as at 30 September 2018 unless otherwise stated Eastspring Investments Funds Monthly Income Plan FUND DETAILS Fund size (mil) 1,027.1 Fund base currency Fund dealing
More informationTHOMAS WHITE INTERNATIONAL
THOMAS WHITE INTERNATIONAL Capturing Value Worldwide PORTFOLIO STRATEGY OCTOBER 2016 Emerging Markets: Renewing The Promise After nearly five years of underperformance, emerging market equities have regained
More informationCENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC June 29, 217 SECOND REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT, FINANCING ASSURANCES REVIEW, AND REQUEST FOR AUGMENTATION OF ACCESS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS 6 Approved
More informationCan Emerging Markets Hold Steady?
SEP 25 2017 Can Emerging Markets Hold Steady? Carol Lye» China stepped on the stimulus gas pedal last year, marking the turn for emerging market (EM) assets. The weakening trend in the U.S. dollar and
More informationWill India s growth rebound? Real GDP, projection after 2013
Will India s growth rebound? Real GDP, projection after 2013 Percent change, year ago Source: Oxford Economics. Share of services in GDP has been increasing Constant prices Percent Services Industry Agriculture
More informationEmerging Markets Suffer a Setback in the Second Quarter
Investment Team Update June 30, 2018 Emerging Markets Suffer a Setback in the Second Quarter EMERGING MARKETS INSIGHTS Three Things We re Thinking About Today 1. Saudi Arabia s inclusion to the MSCI Emerging
More informationUS S&P 500 Index vs. FTSE 100; the DAX 30 (Germany); Nikkei 225 (Japan); and CAC 40 (France) October 2018 to July 2018 to Present
Market Review The sell-off in global equity markets in the last quarter of 2018, primarily led by the Dow Jones and S&P 500 Indices in the United States, is largely at odds with current US business data
More informationLazard Insights. What Can Change the Strong Dollar Narrative? Summary. Why Has the US Dollar Strengthened?
Lazard Insights What Can Change the Strong Dollar Narrative? Ardra Belitz, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager/Analyst Jared Daniels, CFA, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager/Analyst Summary The current
More informationEric C. Elbell, CFA, CAIA Area Senior Vice President. Kyongdo Min, CPA, CFA Area Vice President. April 11, 2018
Eric C. Elbell, CFA, CAIA Area Senior Vice President Kyongdo Min, CPA, CFA Area Vice President April 11, 2018 Agenda We will address three key topics: Headline events that impacted markets during the quarter
More informationShort-term momentum: Will it be sustained?
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Projections published:20 Sept Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained? David TURNER Project LINK Meeting, UNCTAD in Geneva Oct 3-5, 2017 www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm
More informationMonthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO)
Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Special Edition ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Singapore January 2018 This Monthly Update of the AREO was prepared by the Regional
More informationWealth Strategies Monitor
Blend Strategies MUTUAL FUNDS Wealth Strategies Monitor Third Quarter 2011 Highlights Stocks fell sharply as fundamentals were overwhelmed by risk aversion amid doubts about the global economy and Europe
More informationU.S. Steel Market Outlook. Amy Ebben ArcelorMittal USA November 30, 2018
U.S. Steel Market Outlook Amy Ebben ArcelorMittal USA November 30, 2018 Agenda ArcelorMittal introduction U.S. steel industry performance and trade Global steel industry Review of steel markets 1 About
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Eighth Meeting October 12 13, 2018 Statement No. 38-19 Statement by Mr. Mnuchin United States United States IMFC Statement October 2018 I am pleased
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
May 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Slower but Still Solid Economic Growth in the First Quarter;
More informationOVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
More informationWhat next for the US dollar?
US dollar exchange rates are key drivers of the global economy and investment markets, particularly given the dollar s status as the global reserve currency. It is therefore important to understand the
More informationHamburg Accountability Assessment G20 Framework Working Group
Hamburg Accountability Assessment G20 Framework Working Group 1. Introduction Strong, sustainable and balanced growth has been the overarching objective of the G20 since 2009. At their last summit in Hangzhou,
More informationSkyline Asset Management, L.P. Executive Summary Skyline Small Cap Value Composite December 31, 2018
Overview The composite generated a -20.3% return for the fourth quarter, compared to a -20.2% return for the Russell 2000 Index and a -18.7% return for the Russell 2000 Value Index. For all of 2018, the
More information