Managing Risk in Programmes
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1 Project Controls Expo 13 th Nov 2013 Twickenham Stadium, London Managing Risk in Programmes Presented by Dr David Hillson The Risk Doctor Risk Doctor & Partners Copyright Risk Doctor & Partners Limited All rights reserved
2 Outline! Programmes vs Projects! Programme risk vs Project risk! Programme risk mgt vs Project risk mgt! Aim & scope! Approach! Remaining challenges Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 2
3 Hot topic: Programme management! Growing interest for 20 years! Standards & guidelines! UK CCTA Programme & Project Mgt Library ( )! UK OGC Managing Successful Programmes (3 rd ed, 2007)! APM BoK Programme mgt knowledge area (5 th ed, 2006)! PMI PgMP SM certification (2007)! PMI Standard for Program Management (3 rd ed, 2012)! Widespread practice internationally in industry! Lack of consensus among professional bodies Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 3
4 Programmes & Projects! Definitions of programme :! A group of related projects managed in a coordinated way to obtain benefits and control not available from managing them individually. Programs may include elements of related work outside of the scope of the discrete projects in the program.! A group of related projects, which may include related business-as-usual activities, that together achieve a beneficial change of a strategic nature for an organisation.! A temporary flexible organisation structure created to coordinate, direct and oversee the implementation of a set of related projects and activities in order to deliver outcomes and benefits related to an organisation s strategic objectives.! A programme is not a project (not even a big one)! Programme sits above projects Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 4
5 Programme mgt & Project mgt! Definitions of programme management:! The centralized coordinated management of a program to achieve the program s strategic objectives and benefits.! The coordinated management of related projects, which may include related business-as-usual activities, that together achieve a beneficial change of a strategic nature for an organisation.! The coordinated organisation, direction and implementation of a dossier of projects and transformation activities (i.e. the programme) to achieve outcomes and realise benefits of strategic importance.! Programme management is not project management! Programme connects projects to strategy Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 5
6 Programme risk management! All programmes are risky! Programme risk needs managing but HOW?! Use project risk management writ large??! No, programme risk management has! different aim & scope! different approach! different tools & techniques! Programme risk mgt is not project risk mgt Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 6
7 Aim & scope of programme risk management! Aim: Manage risks at programme level! Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more programme xxxxxxxx project objectives.! Scope: Any risk that can affect achievement of one or more programme objectives! Programmes sit between projects & strategy, so risk comes from three directions : ñ ò ð Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 7
8 STRATEGY LEVEL DELEGATED STRATEGIC RISKS PROGRAMME RISKS PROGRAMME LEVEL PROGRAMME RISKS ESCALATED & AGGREGATED COMPONENT RISKS COMPONENT LEVEL (projects + related activities) Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 8
9 Direction 1. Risks from below Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 9
10 Direction 1. Risks from below Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 10
11 Direction 1. Risks from below! Four sources:! Risks within a component project 1. Large project risks escalated 2. Related project risks aggregated! Risk of a component project 3. Overall project risk! Risks from non-project components 4. Escalated or aggregated ESCALATED & AGGREGATED COMPONENT RISKS! Need to know project/programme risk threshold and how to size risks Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 11
12 Escalating & Aggregating Risk size ð Large project risks individually above threshold so escalated Small project risks below threshold so retained by project Related project risks together above threshold so aggregated Related by source (RBS), effect (WBS), impact type (RIBS) etc Project/programme risk threshold Risks in Project Risk Register Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 12
13 STRATEGY LEVEL PROGRAMME LEVEL COMPONENT LEVEL Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 13
14 Direction 2. Risks from above Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 14
15 Direction 2. Risks from above Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 15
16 Direction 2. Risks from above! Strategic risks delegated to programme level if! affect programme objective(s), and/or! require programme-level action/ownership! Need to know strategic/programme risk threshold! Clear communication essential! Delegation without abdication DELEGATED STRATEGIC RISKS Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 16
17 Direction 3. Risks at the same level Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 17
18 Direction 3. Programme risks PROGRAMME RISKS PROGRAMME RISKS! Arising within programme level! Both threats and opportunities! Across all risk types (Risk Breakdown Structure, RBS)! Two main categories:! Interfaces between programme components! Prioritisation, resource conflicts, dependencies! Pure programme risks! Execution & management of programme Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 18
19 Programme risk scope! More complex than projects! Arises from multiple levels:! Up from component level " Down from strategic level # Directly within programme level! Requires different approach to manage Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 19
20 Programme risk mgt approach! Two-fold challenge:! Overall programme risk = RISK! Individual risk/uncertainty = RISKS! Need different approaches! Implicit risk mgt for overall programme risk! Explicit risk mgt for individual risks/uncertainties Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 20
21 Implicit programme risk mgt (1)! Based on inherent structure of programme, deals with RISK! Component selection (content & context)! Build programme to achieve required return with acceptable risk exposure = risk efficiency! Requires knowledge of organisational risk threshold, and ability to evaluate risk exposure of each programme component! Review overall programme risk exposure during lifecycle, adjust component mix as required to stay below threshold Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 21
22 Implicit programme risk mgt (2)! Based on inherent structure of programme, deals with RISK! Programme execution! Incremental delivery via chunks or tranches reduces overall risk exposure! Decouple tranches to create islands of stability! Cyclic nature of programme (plan, execute, deliver, review)! Build in flexibility & resilience, plan future tranches to respond to current risk exposure Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 22
23 Explicit programme risk mgt! Structured process throughout programme lifecycle to address RISKS! Similar to project risk management process! Risk Process Initiation! Risk Identification! Risk Assessment/Analysis! Risk Response Planning & Implementation! Risk Review & Updates! Risk Lessons Learned! Similar tools & techniques Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 23
24 Implicit and Explicit IMPLICIT RISK MANAGEMENT Via decisions about STRUCTURE SCOPE CONTENT CONTEXT Addresses OVERALL RISK EXPLICIT RISK MANAGEMENT Via usual risk process Addresses INDIVIDUAL RISKS Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 24
25 Remaining challenges! Several issues to be addressed:! Implementing risk efficiency for programmes! Avoiding the project mindset! Tailoring to different programme types! Interface with wider programme management Programmes are not projects Programmes are risky Programme risk needs managing Use implicit/explicit multi-level approach Risk Doctor & Partners Limited, Slide 25
26 THANK YOU For further information: Dr David Hillson Risk Doctor & Partners Tel Copyright Risk Doctor & Partners Limited All rights reserved
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