Indonesia BI to cut rates further

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1 l Global Research l On the Ground 5:3 GMT 13 February 212 Indonesia BI to cut rates further We now expect BI to cut the BI rate to 5.5% in Q2, versus our previous view of no change in 212 We maintain our headline inflation forecast of 5% by December 212, which makes further rate cuts risky Rates We shift to Overweight duration, recommend buying 1Y IDR bonds at 5.15% and 2Y at 6.5% FX We have a S/T Neutral FX rating on the IDR, M/T Overweight The 25bps rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) on 9 February came one month earlier than we expected. Our reading of the post-meeting statement indicates that the loosening cycle is not over. Hence, we now expect the BI rate to be cut by another 25bps to 5.5% in Q2, versus our previous forecast of no further change in 212. As a result, we expect the FASBI rate, BI s overnight placement facility for banks, to fall to 3.5% from 3.75%. Fauzi Ichsan, Fauzi.Ichsan@sc.com Thomas Harr, Thomas.Harr@sc.com Danny Suwanapruti, Danny.Suwanapruti@sc.com Eric Alexander Sugandi, Eric.Alexander-Sugandi@sc.com Given Indonesia s strong economic growth and our projection that inflation will pick up starting in Q2, further rate cuts could raise the risk of inflation in the medium term. We expect inflation to reach 5% by the end of 212 (within BI s target range of %), assuming that electricity tariffs and subsidised fuel prices are raised during the year. Even if these two price hikes do not take place, we still expect inflation to rise to 4.5% from 3.6% currently. This trend could persuade the central bank to resume hiking in early 213. As a result of this change in our view, we shift to an Overweight duration stance on IDR bonds from Neutral. We see scope for the bond market to rally by another 5bps. Feedback from offshore investors is that benchmarked funds are currently neutral or underweight duration on IDR bonds versus their benchmarks. A further sovereign rating upgrade should also support our view. Hence, we recommend buying the 1Y at 5.15% and the 2Y at 6.%. The risks to this trade are more external than domestic, and are primarily determined by prevailing global risk sentiment. In the FX market, the narrowing spread between US and Indonesian rates has tended to be negative for the Indonesian rupiah (IDR). A further drop in real interest rates (given our expectation that inflation will pick up in Q2) and limited room for USD interest rates to fall further are likely to put downward pressure on the IDR. In the medium term, Indonesia s strong economic fundamentals and inflows resulting from sovereign rating upgrades are likely to be supportive factors for the IDR. Hence, we maintain our short-term Neutral and medium-term Overweight FX ratings on the IDR. We expect USD-IDR to bounce back to 9,2, then push lower to 8,7 by year-end on the back of inflows. Table 1: Standard Chartered quarterly forecasts (end-period) BI rate cut to provide growth stimulus 9 Feb-12 Q1-12F Q2-12F Q3-12F Q4-12F Q1-13F Q2-13F BI rate M JIBOR USD-IDR 8,956 9,1 9,2 9, 8,7 8,6 8,7 Sources: Bank Indonesia, Reuters, Standard Chartered Research Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 212 research.standardchartered.com

2 Cutting rates, even as inflation drivers return We expect inflation to rebound to 5% by end of 212 On 9 February, Bank Indonesia cut its BI rate by 25bps to 5.75%, arguing that interest rate cuts are needed to protect the domestic economy from the global slowdown. As a result of the cut in the BI rate, the interest rate on BI s overnight placement facility for banks (FASBI) has also fallen to 3.75%, after BI increased the spread between the BI and FASBI rates to 2bps from 15bps in January (in what we saw as unannounced rate cut). Indeed, we believe the BI rate is increasingly irrelevant and that BI s effective policy rate is actually the FASBI rate. This is the rate markets should focus on, as it has fallen below headline inflation. Headline inflation fell to 3.8% in December 211 from 7% in December 21, but we expect it to rise again to 5% by December 212 on the back of the government s plans to hike electricity tariffs (by 1%) and subsidised fuel prices in Q Even if subsidised fuel prices and electricity tariffs are not raised President Yudhoyono may decide that this would be too politically unpopular, and there are no severe fiscal pressures necessitating the hikes we still expect inflation to rise to 4.5%. Meanwhile, Indonesia s inflation outlook remains vulnerable to adverse weather and its impact on harvests. While inflation could ease in Q1, we expect it to accelerate again in Q2 and H BI maintains its inflation target range of % for 212. While we had expected a 25bps BI rate cut in Q1-212 (albeit in March, not February), we are concerned about BI s statement that it is willing to ease monetary policy further. We believe this signals a further cut to 5.5% in Q2. In our view, it would be more prudent to maintain the BI rate for the time being. With GDP growth at 6.5% and bank credit growth at 25% in 211, there is no indication that the economy is slowing sharply unless the euro-area recession deepens sharply and drags down the global economy. We expect Indonesia s GDP growth to slow to 5.8% in 212 under our worst-case scenario, but even at this pace, it would still far exceed global growth. Cynics argue that, in the absence of cuts in banks minimum required reserves held at BI (to support credit growth), reductions in the BI and FASBI rates are largely aimed at reducing BI s own funding costs, which exceed the returns BI is getting from its holdings of G3 government securities in its FX reserves. Chart 1: Inflation is falling y/y but not m/m Chart 2: FASBI/BI rate corridor re-widens Headline inflation, y/y and m/m Industrial production and y/y export growth 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % y/y m/m (3MMA, RHS) 1.2% 1.%.8%.6%.4%.2%.% -.2% -.4% BI rate FASBI rate BI minus FASBI rate (RHS) Mar-9 Sep-9 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-11 Sep-11 Nov-5 Nov-6 Nov-7 Nov-8 Nov-9 Nov-1 Nov-11 Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research GR12JA 13 February 212 2

3 Rates implications Shift to Overweight duration stance Given our BI call, we shift to an Overweight duration stance from Neutral Another BI rate cut would take FASBI/1Y and FASBI/2Y spreads to 165bps and 25bps Despite the 7-8bps drop in yields, we see scope for another 5bps rally We recommend buying 1Y IDR bonds at 5.15% and 2Y at 6.5% Given our revised call of another 25bps BI rate cut in Q2-212, we shift to an Overweight duration stance from Neutral previously. Indonesian bond yields have already declined by around 7-8bps since the start of 212. However, another 25bps cut in the BI rate to 5.5% would take the FASBI to 3.5%, in which case we see scope for the bond market to rally by another 5bps (as we believe this is not fully priced into the market). We therefore recommend buying the 1Y at 5.15% (target: 4.65%, stoploss: 5.45%) and buying the 2Y at 6.5% (target: 5.5%, stop-loss: 6.35%). The latest data (as of 9 February 212) showed that banks holdings of Indonesian government bonds declined marginally by USD 5mn from the start of 212, while BI s holdings rose slightly by USD 265mn. Foreigners have been the largest net buyers this year, adding USD 1.4bn worth of Indonesian government bond holdings and increasing their ownership to 32.% of the total outstanding from 3.5% as of 31 December 211. Feedback from offshore investors is that benchmarked funds are currently neutral or underweight duration versus their benchmarks, and foreign buying this year has been done by non-index funds and total return funds. Going forward, we expect foreign inflows to the Indonesian bond market to persist, driven by Indonesia s positive fundamentals (fiscal position and economic growth) and by continued interest in EM local-currency bond funds. Indonesia has already received credit rating upgrades to investment grade from Fitch and Moody s, and we expect S&P to announce an upgrade to investment grade (BBB-) this year. These upgrades will have a limited impact on Indonesia s inclusion in bond indices, as it is already in the GBI-EM Global Diversified, and its inclusion in the Barclays Global Aggregate will be at a very small weighting (since the index covers all investment-grade bonds, including US Treasuries, Japanese Government Bonds, etc.) However, investment-grade (IG) status will put Indonesia on the radar of IG-dedicated EM bond funds, and of the reserve desks of central banks (particularly in Asia) looking for higher yield. Chart 3: Scope for bonds to rally if BI cuts FASBI rate further (bps) 6 Chart 4: Indonesian bonds continue to perform well % FASBI/2Y spread Y 2Y 2 1 FASBI/1Y spread BI rate Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 4 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research GR12JA 13 February 212 3

4 Supply dynamics in Indonesia s bond market are fairly positive. Estimated net supply for 212 is IDR 135trn, heavier than last year s IDR 12trn. However, the Ministry of Finance has gained approval to reduce issuance by up to IDR 39trn if IDR bonds sell off sharply by using its surplus cash balance from 211 (see Rates Strategy, 2 February 212, Asian rates Demand and supply outlook for 212 ). Demand dynamics are also very positive, with strong demand from foreigners, BI and banks. Banks were net sellers of Indonesian government bonds in 211. However, the widening of the FASBI/policy rate corridor (which we see as implicit easing) and further BI rate cuts suggest scope for a further bond-market rally. Assuming the FASBI rate is cut to 3.5%, this would take the FASBI/1Y and FASBI/2Y spreads to 165bps and 25bps, respectively. Meanwhile, BI should remain a net buyer of Indonesian government bonds and is expected step in during sell-offs. The central bank is looking to gradually exit the SBI market and instead conduct open-market operations via reverse repo operations. In order to facilitate this, it needs to build up its bond inventory. The risks to this trade are more external than domestic. If risk-off sentiment reemerges, driven by the European debt crisis or weakening economic data from the US or China, the bond market is likely to undergo a correction. In such an event, we would close our position during a risk-off spell, and would look to re-enter the market as a medium-term trade. FX implications IDR is vulnerable to further rate cuts The IDR weakened and USD-IDR NDF spreads widened following the BI rate cut on 9 February. In our view, this is a natural market reaction. It may be that the BI rate cut merely reflects the already-depressed overnight FASBI rate, now at 3.75%. However, narrowing US-Indonesian rate differentials have historically tended to be negative for the IDR. Currently, the real policy rate at 2.1% is not a concern for the IDR. However, expectations of further rate cuts are a short-term negative for the IDR given upside risks to CPI inflation later in the year. Near-term, the IDR is vulnerable to positioning and liquidation dynamics. Flow dynamics remain negative, and foreign investors currently own 32% of Indonesian government bonds. Short-term, USD-IDR could move higher towards 9,2, where it traded before Moody s upgraded Indonesia to investment grade on 18 January. In addition, USD- IDR NDF spreads could widen, as typically occurs when there is pressure on the IDR. The 1M/6M and 3M/12M USD-IDR NDF points currently at 131 and 281, respectively are at relatively low levels compared to their averages over the last couple of years. We have a short-term Neutral FX rating on the IDR, forecasting USD-IDR at 9,1 at end-q1-212 and 9,2 at end-q However, Indonesia s fundamentals remain strong, as reflected in rating upgrades and strong growth. We expect S&P to follow Fitch and Moody's and upgrade Indonesia to investment grade in the near future. Over the medium term, this should support capital inflows to Indonesia from central banks and EM local-currency bond funds with dedicated IG mandates. Meanwhile, Indonesia's relatively closed economy should remain insulated from the global slowdown. Hence, we maintain our mediumterm Overweight FX rating on the IDR, forecasting USD-IDR at 8,7 at end-212. GR12JA 13 February 212 4

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Copyright 212 Standard Chartered Bank and its affiliates. All rights reserved. All copyrights subsisting and arising out of all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of Standard Chartered Bank and/or its affiliates, and may not be reproduced, redistributed, amended, modified, adapted, transmitted in any way without the prior written permission of Standard Chartered Bank. Document approved by Tai Hui Regional Head of Research, South East Asia Data available as of 5:3 GMT 13 February 212 Document is released at 5:3 GMT 13 February 212 GR12JA 13 February 212 5