YPF - Development of Shale Resources

Transcription

1 YPF - Development of Shale Resources Comité Mixto Argentino Japonés 5 de Diciembre 2014 Fernando Giliberti; VP Strategy & Business Development

2 Disclaimer Safe harbor statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent, belief, plans, current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management, including statements with respect to YPF s future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes and reserves, as well as YPF s plans, expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond YPF s control or may be difficult to predict. YPF s actual future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes, reserves, capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies, as well as actual future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining margins and exchange rates, could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, oil, gas and other price fluctuations, supply and demand levels, currency fluctuations, exploration, drilling and production results, changes in reserves estimates, success in partnering with third parties, loss of market share, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, the risks of doing business in developing countries, legislative, tax, legal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, wars and acts of terrorism, natural disasters, project delays or advancements and lack of approvals, as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular, those described in Item 3. Key Information Risk Factors and Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects in YPF s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of the foregoing, the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur. Except as required by law, YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized. These materials do not constitute an offer for sale of YPF S.A. bonds, shares or ADRs in the United States or otherwise. 2

3 What is YPF and what are we doing? 3

4 Leading and fully integrated Argentine energy company 2014 LTM 1 Sales (USD) 17,238 MM O&G Production Market Share (%) Oil (Mbbl/d) Refining Market Share (%) Capacity (Mbbl/d) EBITDA (USD) 5,273 MM Gas (MM m3/d) Marketing 44,9 Current Utilization (%) Pump stations 90 Net income (USD) 1,270 MM Product Market share (%) Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil ,537 34% of total Largest company in Argentina ,000 employees #1 in all business segments in which it operates Notes: M: thousand; MM: million (1) YPF financial statements values in IFRS, Last 12 months (3 T 2014). (2) Direct employees.

5 Recent Performance: Strong Emphasis in Production Increase Doubled investments Significant increase in activity Upstream Capex (MMUSD) Drilling Rigs Workover 2, % 2,661 4,488 5,200 3, % 3, % % M M Q Q Reverted downward trend in production seen in recent years; solid growth Crude oil production (M bbl/d) Natural gas production (MM m 3 /d) , ,1 +4.6% (vs. Q3 2013) 239,3 241,6 240,9 246, % (vs. Q3 2013) Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 5

6 Unconventional: Increase in Activity Investment growth in Loma Campana CAPEX (MMUSD) Important Activity Increase Drilling Rigs +374% 1,124 ~1, end End 3Q 3Q 2014 Wells on Production *estimated YTD: At 3Q * Abr 2012 Dic 2012 Dic YTD 6

7 Growing in unconventional development Shale Oil Development Oil (Bbl/d) Natural Gas Development Natural Gas (km3/d) production wells Current Production *Current production equals 18% of YPF s production in Neuquén Basin + 35,000 boe/day Operated gross production at field level (LoCa, Band,LaCh,Bañ,ElOr;PYga) 7

8 Why are we doing this? Where does unconventional agenda come from? 8

9 Primary energy consumption Renewable energy Hydroelectricity Nuclear energy Coal Natural gas Oil Percentage oil and gas 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 86% 75% 66% 66% 62% 60% 59% 23% Argentina Annual consumption 85 Million TOE Annual imports 15 Million TOE Oil production Mbbl/d Gas production MMm3/d Source: B. P. Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, IAPG and Argentine Secretariat of Energy 0% Argentina Russia Japan USA Chile Europe Brazil China 9

10 In 2011, Argentina became a net oil and gas importer and reverting trend is now a national priority Oil, liquid fuels and gas exports and imports USD Billions Foreign trade balance 2014e Exports FOB Imports CIF Exports - Imports Oil & Gas National Total e Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos (INDEC). 10

11 Significant upside in the unconventional resource base Oil Potential (Bbbl) Identified projects Conventional (Oil 3P + Resources) Unconventional (resources) 51% 49% Half of the oil projects portfolio are unconventional 4 th in UNC oil resources* 27 No convencional Convencional Gas Potential (Tcf) Identified projects Conventional (Gas 3P + Resources) Unconventional (resources) More than half of natural gas projects portfolio are unconventional 2 th in UNC gas resources* 802 Source: Secretaria de Energia / U.S. Energy Information Administration (DOE) / Advanced Resources International (ARI), 2013 *The report does not include the Middle East and the Caspian region. 11

12 Where and how are we doing with unconventional in YPF? 12

13 Shale concept 13

14 Resource Play Comparison. Relative Play Area & Thickness Play Vaca Muerta Eagle Ford Bakken Barnett Haynesville Marcellus Fluids Oil & Liquid Rich Gas Oil & Liquid Rich Gas Oil Gas Gas Gas Area (ac) ~7,500,000 ~ 3,000,000 ~13,000,000 ~4,200,000 ~ 6,000,000 ~6,200,000 Vaca Muerta is both very thick and laterally extensive Thickness (ft) ~1,000 ~130 ~150 ~300 ~250 ~200 Marcellus Vaca Muerta Total Area: 7,500 M acres YPF net Area: 2,975 M acres Bakken Eagle Ford Barnett Haynesville YPF is the 3 rd unconventional acreage holder in America Proportional area & thickness of target Liquids Plays Gas Plays Neuquén (Vaca Muerta) Dry Gas Wet Gas Oil Chesapeake ExxonMobil YPF Chevron Apache Source: Chevron Report. Vaca Muerta unconventional plays review 14

15 Eagle Ford (Texas) is an appropriate comparison to Vaca Muerta This basin produces roughly the equivalent to Argentina s oil & gas production Surface / Eagle Ford Vs. Vaca Muerta Oil Production Eagle Ford Exclusive Shale / bbl/d , , , , Gas Production Eagle Ford Exclusive Shale / MMm 3 /d ,000 Argentina Petróleo: m3/d Gas: m3/d Pozos: Vaca Muerta Inversión ~45 mil millones b U$S Eagle Ford Wells: +6,500 CAPEX: USD~45Bn Argentina 2013 Fuente: Railroad Commission of Texas Production Data Query System (PDQ) 15

16 Republic of Argentina Neuquina Basin Neuquén Province Unconventional Play Maturity Cycle 1. Exploration 2. Delineation 3. Pilot 4. Factory Mode 5. Decline TOC Delineation Drilling & Testing o o o o Thickness Thermal Prop TOC Distribution GOR Determine Optimal Development o o o Completion Strategy Testing Frac Intensity IP Distribution o Eagle Ford Factory Mode Developing Well Type- Curves Loma Campana Scale Back Drilling Abandonment Wolfcamp Duvernay Vaca Muerta Sweet Spot Gate Maturity 16

17 Significant cost reduction MMUSD USD 12 11,0 10,2 Site preparation and equipment Completion Drilling USD 10 USD 8 USD 6 3,1 well 4,5 well 8,1 7,4 4,8 well 5 well USD 4 USD 2 USD YTD 17

18 Unconventional: Vaca Muerta pilots and development Vaca Muerta Total: 30,000 km 2 YPF: 12,000 km 2 approx projected activity in 2 projects Capex (MMUSD) Estimated development of the 3 projects in 2% of Vaca Muerta Wells # Capex (MMUSD) # Wells 2 ongoing projects: 520 km 2 YPF operator 18

19 YPF's project in comparison to other high growth shale plays Fewer rigs Similar number of wells Comparable CAPEX Source: Insight report, Unconventional Play Service June 14, Wood Mackenzie)

20 Republic of Argentina Vaca Muerta Vertical Well Production Loma Campana Sweet Spots Confirming Well Productivity V Vaca Muerta Figures > USD 2 billion invested Neuquina Basin Neuquén Province > 200 development wells drilled : 15 wells 2012: 10 wells 2013: 93 wells Avrg well West Sweet Spot: 15 wells 2014 Sweet Spot: 24 wells 21 drilling rigs in LC 40 exploration wells outside LC Total Gross Production (Kboe/d) Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q Months

21 Are there any other frontier to consider? 21

22 Argentine offshore: high risk but high reward Neuquén Basin ~128,000km 2 Salado Basin Colorado Basin Offshore area km2 19 prospects in 5 plays along continental platform. Resource type Argentine Basin Oil Gas Gulf Basin Malvinas Basin Only 13 wells were drilled in offshore in more than 400 meters depth into ~600,000 km2 length (4,5 times Neuquina basin). Austral Basin 22

23 Mission Research, develop, produce and commercialize technologies, knowledge, goods and services for the energy industry. Applied Research Majority Shareholder (51%) Provides leadership, capital funding, human resources and high-level equipment. Technology for O&G Industry Proppant with special capabilities Oil Quality Treatment Data Transmission Flowback Treatment Corrosion Treatment Minority Shareholder (49%) 8,000 researchers, 2,500 technicians and 9,000 PhD scholars. New Petrochemical Products related to O&G EOR Polymers Secondary Recovery - Nanogels Technical Integrity Geochemistry and Geomechanical Biostratigraphy Renewables Wind power Solar power Geothermic Biomass Sea power Ongoing Y-TEC research center La Plata, 12,000m staff members working in situ or at different Research Centers and Universities, PhD scholars and support staff. 23

24 NUESTRA ENERGÍA