Shale by Shale Analysis:

Transcription

1 Shale by Shale Analysis: Assessing the New Landscape Matt Andre Senior Energy Analysis September 1, Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. 1

2 Who is Bentek Energy? 5% 22% 40% 33% Majors, Producers, Mktrs, Industrials Financial and Hedge Pipelines, Utilities, Midstream Government, Associations, Consultants Who We Are Leader in Energy Market Fundamentals 120 employees 450+ Clients Based in Denver, Colorado Division of Platts (McGraw-Hill Fin l) What We Do Bentek s consulting team has the capability to analyze Frac Sand demand by tracking drilling activity down to the Industry county level Collect, Analyze, and Interpret Data Share Knowledge with the Energy Reports and Consulting Services

3 Agenda Outlook for shale production across the US Production dynamics are changing; what is driving producer behavior? Local and regional dynamics influencing rates of production Marcellus and Utica shale plays are still growing

4 Bentek IRR Methodology Research Top Producers well economics data for each play D&C costs Production mix IP rates Decline curves Operating expenses Internal Rate of Return measures and compares Bentek Analytics the profitability of Representative set of assumptions for each play investments Data review & validation Update price curve Remove outliers Establish inputs Tracking 26 plays across North America IRR & Outputs Establishing IRR for a typical well in each play Reports & Charts Producer highlights Sensitivity analysis Trend analysis 4

5 IRR by play Oil Plays Still Earning the Highest Returns Montney 13% 1% Duvernay Dry Gas Play Oil & Liquids Play Green River Uinta 3% 3% 15% DJ 16% 21%/ Permian 12% Delaware/Midland Bakken Cleve/SCOOP 15%/ 17% 19% 154% Granite Wash 7% 12% Cana-Wood 63% 19% Miss Lime 3% 10% Eagle Ford Oil Utica Wet/Dry Arkoma-Wood Haynesville 10%/ 5% 22%/ 1% MarcellusDry 69% 17% MarcellusWet August 2015 Price Assumptions: Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point (range $ $3.07/Mcf) Oil = 12 month forward average WTI +/- differential (range $36.98-$53.19/barrel) NGLs = weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo forward average Mt. Belvieu prices (range $17.88-$23.38/barrel) Source: BENTEK

6 Oil-Weighted Production, Tops the Stack % of Production 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 60.0% 14% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% IRR August 2015 Price Assumptions: Oil % Gas % NGLs % Aug'15 IRR Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point (range $ $3.07/Mcf) Oil = 12 month forward average WTI +/- differential (range $36.98-$53.19/barrel) NGLs = weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo forward average Mt. Belvieu prices (range $17.88-$23.38/barrel) Source: BENTEK

7 Value gap has shrunk but it still exists $/MMBtu Equivalent $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 WTI HH Mont Belvieu Brent CAPP

8 IRR YoY IRR comparison - result of commodity markets collapse 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% IRRs: July 2014 vs. Aug 2015 July'14 Aug'15 August 2015 Price Assumptions: Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point (range $ $3.07/Mcf) Oil = 12 month forward average WTI +/- differential (range $36.98-$53.19/barrel) NGLs = weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo forward average Mt. Belvieu prices (range $17.88-$23.38/barrel) Source: BENTEK 8

9 What is driving producer behavior?

10 How is current environment shaping producer behavior? Producers are shifting resources to the highest return plays Core drilling or High-grading Efficiencies Reducing drill-times and rig counts D&C costs reductions Negotiating lower costs Nimble producers wet vs. dry (NE plays) Production curtailment Drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) low price environment could entice producers to complete DUC wells; increasing frac sand demand even if drilling activity slowed down 10

11 US Rigs Cut in Half Since Oil Price Collapse OTHER ROCKIES 54% WILLISTON MICHIGAN Northeast Rig Count Down 44% Rig Declines CALIFORNIA POWDER RIVER WIND RIVER GREEN RIVER UINTA SAN JUAN 46% PICEANCE RATON PERMIAN 52% D-J ANADARKO 58% FT WORTH OTHER MIDCONTINENT EAST TX 56% ILLINOIS ARK FAYETTEVILLE ARK WOODFORD ARKLA TX GULF EAGLE FORD AL-MS-FL LA GULF TX GULF UTICA 48% OFFSHORE 42% 43% OTHER APPALACHIAN MARCELLUS DRY MARCELLUS WET TOTAL 1014 CHANGE Source: BENTEK, Aug2015 Active rig count: Aug 21, 2015 / Change in rig count from October 24, 2014

12 Days to Drill a Well Improving Drill Times

13 Number of Wells/Rigs Wells per Month per Rig More wells with Fewer Rigs 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, U.S. Horizontal Drilling Dynamics Horizontal Wells Drilled Horizontal Rigs Wells Drilled per Rig per Month Source: BENTEK & RigData

14 Drilling and Completion Cost Down ~20% $MM $9.0 Average D&C cost reductions by Basin $8.0 $7.0 $6.0 17% 23% 18% 19% $5.0 $4.0 17% $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $0.0 Bakken Permian Marcellus Eagleford DJ 4Q2014 Average 2Q2015 Average Source: BENTEK

15 Production by Region

16 Northeast drives natural gas production growth in next five years -0.4 Bcf/d +0.0 Bcf/d -0.5 Bcf/d +1.4 Bcf/d Bcf/d -0.1 Bcf/d +2.2 Bcf/d +2.8 Bcf/d Supply Growth Compare: Source: Bentek Cellcast Total Increase: 16.3 Bcf/d 16

17 Bcf/d NE Production to Supply LNG Demand - Gas US Natural Gas Demand PowerBurn Industrial ResComm PipeLoss LNGExports * data powered by CellCast 17

18 Two Producing Regions in Northeast NE PA Dry Wet Marcellus/Utica Well Inventory (1,425 wells) South PA 340 SW PA 448 OH 637 Well Inventory (1,059 wells) NE PA 871 Central PA

19 Key Takeaways Oil-based plays still offer acceptable returns for producers Efficiencies continue to improve well economics Marcellus and Utica remain strongest dry plays LNG exports provides an outlet for growing NE gas supply Risks to current production estimates? Upside Risk Gas curtailment DUCs Downside Risk Credit crunch Hedges rolling off 19

20 Thank You! BENTEK is an energy market analytics company focused on the natural gas, oil, and liquids markets and related energy sectors. Matt Andre Senior Energy Analysis Contact Matt at Consulting Team DISCLAIMER. THIS REPORT IS FURNISHED ON AN AS IS BASIS. BENTEK DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THE REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN. BENTEK MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING OF COMMODITIES, EQUITIES, FUTURES, OPTIONS OR ANY OTHER USE. BENTEK MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANT- ABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. RELEASE AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY: IN NO EVENT SHALL BENTEK BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFIT) ARISING OUT OF OR RELATED TO THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN,WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY. 20