ISI Energy: Natural Gas Basin Analysis Jonathan D. Wolff, CFA

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1 ISI Energy: Natural Gas Basin Analysis Jonathan D. Wolff, CFA

2 Summary New Basin Supply Model Should Be Better Predictor: Having the benefit of starting fresh, we decided to upgrade our natural gas supply model. We think the new approach will be a much better predictor of supply as it is not purely rig count driven. Our analysis in the past turned out to be too optimistic regarding supply declines (which have not surfaced). Based on the factors we see supply falling by just ~52 MMcf/d (1%) this year. Multi-Factor Evaluation of 21 US Basins: We have built a bottoms-up model for 21 US basins evaluated (93% of US supply). For forecasting, in addition to predicted rig activity and completion forecasts, the model considers midstream expansions in wet gas and liquids-rich areas, the inventory of drilled and uncompleted wells, the benefits of Pad drilling and the acreage holding (HBP) requirements of operators in the basin. Deeper Analysis of Midstream and Pipelines: In the new era of resource manufacturing, tracking pipelines and gas plant construction is key (particularly in wet gas plays). Natural gas production additions used to be easily tracked by the rig count due to the push nature of energy markets (complete the well and bring it on to sales right away). In today s world, volume growth is much more pull (driven by infrastructure). Significant Gas Plant Expansion Underway: In our estimation, there will be nearly 14 Bcf/d of natural gas processing capacity additions between now and then end of 214. Particular areas of focus are the Marcellus Shale, the Anadarko Basin (Cana, Miss) and the Eagle Ford Shale. Hidden DUCs to Drive Production Beyond What Rig Count Suggests: Incorporated into our model are drilled uncompleted (DUCs) and proved developed non-producing (PDNP). We believe there could be some 1,8 Drilled UnCompleted ( DUCs ) and developed non-producing wells in the U.S. including a significant chunk (perhaps ~1,) in the Marcellus region that are effectively inventory for future production additions. 2

3 Supply Balances 213 Basin Recent 213E Exit Rig Count Dry Gas Rate Change 213E (MMCf/d) (MMcf/d) Total Peak Gas/ Hybrid Bakken Anadarko basin 6, Permian 3, Northern Midcon N/A 15 Mature Midcon 1,8 (126) N/A 6 Haynesville (LA) 5,8 (49) East Texas (CV, HV) 3,9 (735) Fayetteville 2, Barnett 5,3 (42) TXGC (Incl. Eagle Ford) 6, Marcellus- PA 6, West Virginia 1, Utica- OH N/A 37 Northeast- Mature 665 (4) Offshore 4,6 (1) Green River 3,4 (14) Piceance 1,8 (175) DJ 1, Uinta 1,1 (131) PRB 85 (68) Mature Rockies 55 (44) 7 N/A N/A SubTotal (Active Basins) 59, ,568 2, Other Production 4,643 (325) Total Dry 64, (18) Imports (Exports) Mexico (4) Canada (1) LNG Supply Change (518) 3

4 Supply Balances 214 Basin Recent 214E Exit Rig Count Dry Gas Rate Change 214E (MMcf/d) (MMcf/d) Total Peak Gas/ Hybrid Bakken Anadarko basin 6, Permian 3, Northern Midcon N/A 2 Mature Midcon 1,674 (117) N/A 4 Haynesville (LA) 5,31 (359) East Texas (CV, HV) 3,165 (415) Fayetteville 3,185 (315) Barnett 4,88 (294) TXGC (Incl. Eagle Ford) 6, Marcellus- PA 7, West Virginia 1, Utica- OH N/A 52 Northeast- Mature 625 (38) Offshore 4,5 (75) Green River 3,26 (112) Piceance 1,625 (131) DJ 1, Uinta 969 (98) PRB 782 (63) Mature Rockies 56 (4) 7 N/A N/A SubTotal (Active Basins) 59,664 (52) 1,449 Other Production 4,336 (34) Total Dry 64, (356) Imports (Exports) Mexico (3) Canada (3) LNG Supply Change (956) 4

5 Historical Basin Output and Midstream Review 5

6 NE Marcellus Dry Natural Gas Production 6, Rig Count (RHS) Gas Production (LHS) 3 2,5 Marcellus Completions 5, 4, , MMcf/d 3, 2, 15 1 Rigs 1,5 1, 1, Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 6

7 SW Marcellus Natural Gas Production Utica Rigs West Virginia Rigs Gas Production Utica Completions 3, MMcf/d 2,5 2, 1, Rigs , Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 7

8 New Northeast Natural Gas Processing Facilities & Expansions Plant Owner County Start-up Date Capacity (MMcf/d) Natrium/44 - Phase I Dominion Transmission, Inc. Marshall, WV 2/1/213 2 Fort Beeler - Phase 3 Williams Company Inc. Marshall, WV 2/28/213 2 Mobley II MarkWest Liberty Midstream Wetzel, WV 3/1/ Majorsville III MarkWest Liberty Midstream Marshall, WV 3/1/213 2 Cadiz I MarkWest Utica Harrison, OH 3/1/ Ft Wetzel - Phase 1 Williams Company Inc. Marshall, WV 4/1/213 2 Sherwood II MarkWest Liberty Midstream Doddridge, WV 6/1/213 2 Columbiana Chesapeake/M3/EV Energy Columbiana, OH 6/1/213 6 Seneca Interim MarkWest Utica Noble, OH 6/1/ Harrison I NiSource Harrison, OH 6/1/213 2 Natrium/44 - Phase II Dominion Transmission, Inc. Marshall, WV 9/1/213 2 Sherwood III MarkWest Liberty Midstream Doddridge, WV 9/1/213 2 Cadiz II MarkWest Utica Harrison, OH 9/1/213 2 Ft Wetzel - Phase 2 Williams Company Inc. Marshall, WV 1/1/213 2 Seneca I MarkWest Utica Noble, OH 1/1/213 2 [Not Yet Named] Pennant Midstream LLC OH 1/1/213 2 Majorsville V MarkWest Liberty Midstream Marshall, WV 12/1/213 2 Mobley III MarkWest Liberty Midstream Wetzel, WV 12/31/213 2 Seneca II MarkWest Utica Noble, OH 12/31/213 2 Bluestone II MarkWest Liberty Midstream Butler, PA 3/1/ Bluestone III MarkWest Liberty Midstream Butler, PA 6/1/214 2 Majorsville IV MarkWest Liberty Midstream Marshall, WV 6/1/214 2 Majorsville VI MarkWest Liberty Midstream Marshall, WV 6/1/214 2 Regional Subtotal (MMcf/d) 4,61 Source: Bentek, company filings 8

9 New Northeast Pipeline Projects & Expansions Owner KMI Name In-Service Date Capacity (MMcf/d) Route Tennesee Gas Pipeline - Northeast Upgrade 4Q Expansion of 3 line: Bradford County, PA to NJ WPZ Transco Northeast Supply Link 4Q Leidy, PA to Northeast TCP Millennium Minisink Compressor 1Q Millennium to Algonquin at Ramapo TCP Millennium Hancock Compressor 4Q Marcellus to Northeast NFG West to East Marcellus to Leidy, PA hub SE TETCO - TEAM 214 4Q Expansion of TETCO: SW Marcellus to Northeast WPZ/COG Constitution Pipeline 1Q NE PA to Iroquios pipeline (at Albany, NY) Source: Bentek, company filings 9

10 Texas Gulf Coast (incl. Eagleford) Natural Gas Production 7,6 Rig Count (RHS) Gas Production (LHS) 3 3,5 Eagleford Completions 7, 25 3, 6,4 2 2,5 MMcf/d 5,8 5,2 4,6 4, Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan Rigs 2, 1,5 1, Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 1

11 New Texas Gulf Coast Natural Gas Processing Facilities & Expansions Plant Owner County Start-up Date Capacity (MMcf/d) Flag City Boardwalk Field Services LLC Jackson, TX 2/1/ Eagle DCP Midstream, LP Jackson, TX 2/28/213 2 Houston Central Copano Energy Colorado, TX 3/1/213 4 Yoakum Enterprise Products Lavaca, TX 3/1/213 3 Jackson Energy Transfer Company Jackson, TX 3/1/213 4 Pettus TexStar Midstream Services Bee, TX 6/1/ Brasada Western Gas Partners La Salle, TX 6/1/213 2 Catrina DCP Midstream, LP Dimmit, TX 1/1/214 2 Reveille Howard Energy Partners Webb, TX 1/31/214 2 Jackson Energy Transfer Company Jackson, TX 3/1/214 2 Jackson Energy Transfer Company Jackson, TX 3/1/214 2 Silver Oak TEAK Midstream Bee, TX 3/1/214 2 Goliad DCP Midstream, LP Bee, TX 3/1/214 2 Houston Central Copano Energy Colorado, TX 7/1/214 4 Regional Subtotal (MMcf/d) 3,5 Source: Bentek, company filings 11

12 Anadarko Basin Natural Gas Production 7, Rig Count (RHS) Gas Production (LHS) 3 2,5 Anadarko Completions 6,2 24 2, MMcf/d 5,4 4, Rigs 1,5 1, 3, , Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 12

13 New Anadarko Basin Natural Gas Processing Facilities & Expansions Plant Owner County Start-up Date Capacity (MMcf/d) Carmen Caballo Energy Alfalfa, OK 3/1/213 6 Ajax Enbridge Energy Partners Wheeler, TX 3/1/ Northern Oklahoma System SemGas L.P. Woods, OK 3/1/ Fort Elliot Enogex Wheeler, TX 6/1/213 8 Wheeler Eagle Rock Energy Wheeler, TX 6/1/213 6 National Helium DCP Midstream, LP Seward, KS 9/1/213 - [Not Yet Named] Next Generation ProcessinReno, KS 9/1/213 1,4 McClure Enogex Custer, OK 12/1/213 2 Cana - Mustang Devon Energy Canadian, OK 12/31/ Canadian Valley ONEOK Partners Canadian, OK 3/1/214 2 Regional Subtotal (MMcf/d) 2,425 Source: Bentek, company filings 13

14 Fayetteville Shale Natural Gas Production 3,3 Rig Count (RHS) Gas Production (LHS) 35 1, Fayetteville Completions 3, MMcf/d 2,9 2, Rigs 6 4 2, ,3 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 14

15 Permian Basin Natural Gas Production Gas Production Conventional Rigs Unconventional Rigs MMcf/d 3,3 3,2 3,1 3, 2,9 2,8 2, ,6 1 2,5 5 2,4 - Jan-13 Nov-12 Sep-12 Jul-12 May-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jul-11 May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Jan-13 Nov-12 Sep-12 Jul-12 May-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jul-11 May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 15

16 New Permian Basin Natural Gas Processing Facilities & Expansions Plant Owner County Start-up Date Capacity (MMcf/d) Bone Springs Regency / Anadarko PecosWard, TX 2/1/213 1 Driver Atlas Pipeline Partners Upton, TX 4/1/213 2 Rawhide Plant DCP Midstream, LP Glasscock, TX 6/1/ Red Bluff Southern Union Gas ServicReeves, TX 6/1/213 2 Ramsey III Nuevo Midstream Reeves, TX 6/1/214 2 Midway DCP Midstream, LP Midland, TX 6/1/ High Plains Targa Resources Glasscock, TX 6/1/214 2 Regional Subtotal (MMcf/d) 1,5 Source: Bentek, company filings 16

17 Bakken Natural Gas Production 6 Rig Count (RHS) Gas production (LHS) 24 2,1 Bakken Completions 5 2 1, ,5 MMcf/d Rigs 1, Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 17

18 New Bakken Natural Gas Processing Facilities & Expansions Plant Owner County Start-up Date Capacity (MMcf/d) Stateline II ONEOK Partners W. Williams, ND 4/1/213 1 Tioga Hess Corporation Williams, ND 6/1/ South Heart New Frontier Midstream Stark, ND 7/1/213 4 Ross Plains Gas Solutions Mountrail, ND 12/1/ Garden Creek II ONEOK Partners McKenzie, ND 9/1/214 1 Regional Subtotal (MMcf/d) 445 Source: Bentek, company filings 18

19 Haynesville Natural Gas Production 12, 11, Rig Count (RHS) Gas Production (LHS) Haynesville Completions 1, MMcf/d 9, 8, 9 6 Rigs , 6, Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 19

20 Rockies Natural Gas Production 1, Rig Count (RHS) Gas production (LHS) 12 2,5 Rockies Completions 9,6 96 2, MMcf/d 9,2 8, Rigs 1,5 1, 8, , Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 2

21 Barnett Shale Natural Gas Production 6,5 Rig Count (RHS) Gas Production (LHS) 7 3,5 Barnett Completions 6, 56 3, MMcf/d 5,5 5, Rigs 2,5 2, 1,5 4,5 14 1, 4, Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan Source: Bentek, Smith Rig Count, State Filings, ISI estimates 21

22 ANALYST CERTIFICATION: The views expressed in this Report accurately reflect the personal views of those preparing the Report about any and all of the subjects or issuers referenced in this Report. No part of the compensation of any person involved in the preparation of this Report was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by research analysts in this Report. DISCLOSURE: Neither ISI nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject companies referenced in the Report. No person(s) responsible for preparing this Report or a member of his/her household serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of any of the subject companies. No person(s) preparing this report or a member of his/her household have a financial interest in the subject companies of this Report. At various times, the employees and owners of ISI, other than those preparing this Report, may transact in the securities discussed in this Report. Neither ISI nor its affiliates have any investment banking or market making operations. No person(s) preparing this research Report has received non-investment banking compensation form the subject company in the past 12 months. ISI does and seeks to do business with companies covered in this research Report may have or has received non-investment banking compensation in the past 12 months. DISCLAIMER: This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but neither ISI nor its affiliates guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Assumptions, opinions and recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, and ISI is not obligated to update the information contained herein. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. ISI RATING SYSTEM: Based on stock s 12-month risk adjusted total return. STRONG BUY Return > 2% BUY Return 1% to 2% NEUTRAL Return % to 1% CAUTIOUS Return -1% to % SELL Return < -1% ISI has assigned a rating of STRONG BUY/BUY to 47% of the securities rated as of 12/31/12.* ISI has assigned a rating of NEUTRAL to 5% of the securities rated as of 12/31/12.* ISI has assigned a rating of CAUTIOUS/SELL to 4% of the securities rated as of 12/31/12.* (Due to rounding, the above number may add up to more/less than 1%). *Please note as of January 213 ISI Group LLC has changed our ratings system to the categories described above. For the distribution of ratings for the quarter ending 12/31/12, what was previously rated as a BUY is now reflected in the Strong Buy/Buy category, what was previously rated as a HOLD is now reflected in the Neutral category, and what was previously rated as a SELL is now reflected in the Cautious/Sell category. 22

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