Investor Presentation. March, 2014

Transcription

1 Investor Presentation March

2 Disclaimer Safe harbor statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent belief plans current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management including statements with respect to YPF s future financial condition financial operating reserve replacement and other ratios results of operations business strategy geographic concentration business concentration production and marketed volumes and reserves as well as YPF s plans expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures investments expansion and other projects exploration activities ownership interests divestments cost savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions such as future crude oil and other prices refining and marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance prices margins exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks uncertainties changes and other factors which may be beyond YPF s control or may be difficult to predict. YPF s actual future financial condition financial operating reserve replacement and other ratios results of operations business strategy geographic concentration business concentration production and marketed volumes reserves capital expenditures investments expansion and other projects exploration activities ownership interests divestments cost savings and dividend payout policies as well as actual future economic and other conditions such as future crude oil and other prices refining margins and exchange rates could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include but are not limited to oil gas and other price fluctuations supply and demand levels currency fluctuations exploration drilling and production results changes in reserves estimates success in partnering with third parties loss of market share industry competition environmental risks physical risks the risks of doing business in developing countries legislative tax legal and regulatory developments economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions political risks wars and acts of terrorism natural disasters project delays or advancements and lack of approvals as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission in particular those described in Item 3. Key Information Risk Factors and Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects in YPF s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of the foregoing the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur. Except as required by law YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized. These materials do not constitute an offer for sale of YPF S.A. bonds shares or ADRs in the United States or otherwise. 2

3 Agenda Company overview Recent performance Financial considerations 3

4 Corporate Governance Shareholder structure 1 Board composition 37.09% 11.9% 51.0% 0.01% Designated by Repsol Mr. García del Río Mr. Tombeur Labor Union Representative Mr. Soloaga Company Executives Mr. Dasso Mr. Cuesta Mr. Arceo Independent Mr. Valle Mr. Brizuela Mr. Uchitel Mr. Piacentino Chairman of the Board Mr. Galuccio Shares Class A Mr. Kicillof Designated by the Provinces Mr. Nagel Mr. Ivovich Mr. Cretini Mr. Félix Mr. Ortiz Argentine government 2 Argentine government Series A Repsol Free float (1) As of 12/31/13 (2) In exercise of the rights derived from the Repsol shares subject to expropriation in accordance with Law y art. 57 published in the Official Gazzette on May Ratings B- AA (Arg) Caa1 Ba1 (Arg) Markets YPF YPFD 4

5 Leading Integrated Energy Co. In Argentina Sales 1 US$ mm EBITDA 1 2 US$ 4297 mm Net income 1 2 US$ 1041 mm Employees Exploration and production Downstream - refining and logistics Downstream - petrochemicals Downstream - marketing Major Affiliates Production 4 : 232 Kbbl/d of crude oil 48 Kbbl/d of NGL and 33.9 Mm3/d of natural gas Proved Reserves 3 4 in 2013: 628 mm bbl of liquids and 455 mm boe of gas Unique unconventional opportunities: Vaca Muerta Lajas Pozo D-129 Total refining Capacity: 320 Kbbl/d 5 6 (more than 50% 6 of Argentina s total capacity) High level of conversion and complexity Nearly 2700 km 6 of crude oil and 1801 km 6 of refined products pipeline The petrochemical business is integrated with the rest of the production chain Output Capacity: mm ton per annum The country s leading company in fuel marketing (56.5% 6 market share in diesel and gasoline) service stations MEGA: Liquids separation and a fractioning plant Refinor: Refining transportation and marketing of refined products Profertil: Leads the fertilizer production and wholesale business producing urea and ammonia AESA: Engineering manufacturing construction operating and maintenance services to power and energy companies (1)YPF financial statements values in IFRS converted to US$ using 2013 average FX of 5.5. (2) Considers non recurrent results for 2Q 2013 not including a non cash provision of 855 MARS relating to claims arising from discontinuity of gas export contracts to Brazil in (3) Includes oil condensates and liquids; converted using 1 boe = mm cf of gas as per 20-F (4) As of FY 2013 financial statements (5) Does not includes 50% of Refinor (13 kbbl/d). (6) Company Data (7) Excludes 71 Refinor service stations. 5

6 Integrated across value chain Oil business 7 Kbbl/d Domestic market Purchases 61 Kbbl/d Domestic market 71% Domestic prices (gasoline diesel) 17% International prices (FO bunker jet fuel petrochemicals lubricants LPG and others) 88% 217 Kbbl/d Production 231 Kbbl/d 7 Kbbl/d Export market Refining 278 Kbbl/d Exports International prices (naphtha LPG jet fuel crude petrochemicals fuel oil soybean oil and meal and others) 12% Natural gas business Upstream 34 mm m 3 /d + Imports (Gas purchased by ENARSA) + Purchases 0.2% 99% Exports Domestic market 58% 16% Residential + CNG 26% Industrial Power plants Production figures refer to YPF in Argentina only / As of December

7 Upstream - Significant Potential with Leading Market Position Cuyana Proved reserves: 71 mm boe % liquids: 98% % gas: 2% Production: 8.1 mm boe Neuquina Proved reserves: 580 mm boe % liquids: 48% % gas: 52% Production: mm boe Source: Company Data 2013 Austral Proved reserves: 86 mm boe % liquids: 24% % gas: 76% Production: 6.1 mm boe (1) Company Data 2013 (2) Includes international reserves of 1.2 MBOE Noroeste Proved reserves: 57 mm boe % liquids: 16% % gas: 84% Production: 8.5 mm boe Golfo San Jorge Proved reserves: 288 mm boe % liquids: 83% % gas: 17% Production: 42.2 mm boe YPF has 90 concessions in the most productive Argentine basins (total reserves 1P: 1083 mm boe 1 ) and 52 exploration blocks in the country (48 onshore and 4 offshore) Proved reserves 2 Gas 42% Total: 1083 mm boe Liquids 58% Production share Tecpetrol 2% Chevron San Jorge 2% Apache 4% Sinopec 4% Pluspetrol 4% Wintershall 6% Total Australl 6% Total: 466 mm boe Others 12% YPF 37% Pan American 17% Petrobras 6% Source: IAPG as of December

8 Unconventional opportunities CUYANA NEUQUINA GOLFO SAN JORGE AUSTRAL NOROESTE CHACO PARANAENSE Notes: K: thousand; M: million; B: billion (10 9 ) Tested & Producing 44 Vaca Muerta (shale oil / gas) Lajas (tight gas) Pozo D-129 (shale oil / tight oil) Other Opportunities Noroeste - Cretaceous Yacoraite (shale / tight oil & gas) Noroeste - Tarija Los Monos (shale gas) Neuquina Mulichinco (tight oil / gas) Los Molles (shale / tight gas) Agrio (shale oil) Golfo San Jorge Neocomiano (shale oil / gas) Chaco Paranaense Devonian Permian (shale oil) Cuyana Cacheuta (shale oil) Potrerillos (tight oil) Austral Inoceramus 8

9 Cumulative oil production bbl Vaca Muerta Unconventional Formation Description Encouraging results Shale oil & gas Vaca Muerta Gross Area km D bbl Dry gas Wet gas Oil Net YPF Area km 2 Windows 1 Oil 77% Wet gas 5% Dry gas 18% Avg (15 wells) 2012 Avg (10 wells) Avg (103 wells) Avg West Sweet Spot (10 wells) 5000 Type well EUR 293 Kbbl Production month Vaca Muerta Barnett Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Bakken TOC (%) Thickness (mts) Reservoir pressure (psi) (1) Estimated over YPF net acreage Source: SPE Wood Mackenzie and YPF data. 9

10 Downstream - solid market leadership A Luján de Cuyo refinery Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: 2 Production: 8.8 M boe B Capacity: 1055 kbbl/d La Plata refinery Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: 2 Production: 8.8 M boe Capacity: 189 kbbl/d C A B D Market Share Breakdown (%) Crude Processing 2 No. of Gas Stations 2 Others Others 8% 13% 28% 34% 9% 55% 11% 15% 12% 15% Gasoline 3 Diesel 3 Others Others Oil pipeline Products pipeline Terminals C D Plaza Huincul refinery Capacity: 25 kbbl/d Refinor (1) Capacity: 261 kbbl/d 6% 14% 6% 19% 55% 10% 14% 5% 13% 58% Source: 20-F 2012 (1) YPF owns 50% of Refinor (not operated) (2) As of December 2012 (3) Cumulative December

11 Upstream plan Capex MUSD x2 Exploitation Oil + 29% production 251 Mbbl 5380 wells Secondary Recovery 14% Primary Production 32% Others 8% Shale oil 46% MUSD x7 Natural Gas + 23% production 1.27 TCF 1160 wells Infill 33% Others 8% Shale gas 32% Tight gas 27% Exploration 250 wells Notes: Mbbl: Million barrels / Tcf: Trillion cubic feet 11

12 Downstream plan Capex Refining complex expansion and upgrading Refined products increase MUSD x Gasoline Diesel Contribution by project Utilization Capacity Upgrading Conversion 6% 3% 10% 5% 8% 18% 18% Annual CAGR 5.6% 9.5% 8.1% + Light crude + Topping / vacuum capacity + Alkylation / reforming capacity + Hydrocracking / coking capacity total increase Gasoline Diesel 24% 44% Total 37% 12

13 Agenda Company overview Recent performance Financial considerations 13

14 Activity Doubled investments during 2013 Capex Significant increase in activity Drilling Rigs ARS Millions +81.1% % sep-13 Workover 73% Upstream Downstream Others sep-13 14

15 Production Reverted downward trend in production seen in recent years Crude oil production (kbbl/d) Natural gas production (Mm 3 /d) Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q

16 Reserves Boosted proved reserves by 10.6%. Solid results coming from secondary recovery projects tight gas and shale formations. Total Hydrocarbon (Mboe) Liquids (Mbbl) Natural Gas (Mboe) RRR 158% RRR 137% RRR 185% +10.6% % % (1) Approximately 6.5 Mboe were transferred to Consolidated Entities as a result of YPF Energía Eléctrica working interest on Ramos Field. These rights were previously owned by former Pluspetrol Energy and thus disclosed under Equity-accounted Entities reserves. 16

17 JV Partners: Chevron Dow and Petrolera Pampa Loma Campana (395 km acres) Objective: Vaca Muerta Shale Oil with Chevron (1) 395 Km 2 / Km 2 YPF Operates Republic of Argentina Neuquina Basin Neuquén Province Total Gross Production (Kboe/d) % of total YPF s VM acreage Development model 290 Km 2 (71661 acres) Directional wells upside 105 Km 2 (25946 acres) Pilot consisting of 130 wells and US$1.24 bn Full program of ~1500 wells (US$15 bn+) Estimated oil production: + 50 Kbbl/d Estimated gas production: 3 mm m 3 /d El Orejano (45 km acres) Objective: Vaca Muerta Shale Gas with Dow 0.37% of total YPF s VM acreage 2 Initial investment of US$188 mm 16 wells to be drilled YPF Operates (2) 45 Km 2 / Km 2 Rincón del Mangrullo (183 km acres) Objective: Mulichinco Tight Gas with Petrolera Pampa 1 st stage 40 km 2 of 3D seismic 34 wells to be drilled 2 snd stage 15 wells to be drilled YPF Operates Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q

18 Downstream Strong local demand and stable market share even with lower crude processed due to the La Plata Refinery incident Crude processed (kbbl/d) Gasoline sales (Km3) % % Diesel sales (Km3) +0.9%

19 Financial Results Production and sales volume growth coupled with pricing discipline led to solid financial results and healthy margins. Recurring Operating Income (ARS million) Recurring EBITDA (ARS million) % +62.8% Recurring Net Income (ARS million) +45.6% Recurring results exclude 855 MARS impact of non cash provision relating to claims arising from discontinuity of gas export contracts to Brazil in

20 Agenda Company overview Recent performance Financial considerations 20

21 FY 2013 Financial Situation Issued ARS 7.6 bn and USD 650 million in 2013; increased cash to ARS 10.7 bn Average life of debt of 3.5 years; Peso denominated debt at 41% of total; average interest rates of 6.1% in USD and 21.5% in ARS Maintained solid capital structure In million of ARS Notes Amount Interest Rate Maturity 7203 Series XXIV (Q4 2013) USD 150M Libor + 7.5% 58 months Series XXV (Q4 2013) ARS 300M BADLAR % 18 months Series XXVI (Q4 2013) USD 500M 8.875% 60 months Series XXVII (Q4 2013) ARS 150M 19% + margin 18 months Series XXVII (Q4 2014) ARS 500M BADLAR + 0% 72 months Cash at the end of 2012 Cashflow from operations (1) Net financing (2) Capex Cash at the end of 2013 Series XXVII (Q1 2014) ARS 379M BADLAR + 3.5% 21 months (1) Includes effect of changes in exchange rates / (2) Effective spendings in fixed assets acquisitions net of revenues from asset sales of 5351 MARS. 21

22 Financial overview - consolidated balance sheet Balance sheet Year 2013 (ARS million) Year 2012 (ARS million) VAR % 2013/2012 Cash & ST investments % Fixed assets % Other assets % Total assets % Loans % Liabilities % Total Liabilities % Shareholders equity % Source: YPF financial statements 22

23 Financial overview - consolidated income statement (*) Income statement 12 months 2013 (ARS million) 12 months 2012 (ARS million) VAR % 12m 2013/2012 Q (ARS million) Q (ARS million) VAR % Q / Q Net sales % % Operating income % % EBITDA % % Net income % % Source: YPF financial statements (1) EBITDA = Net Income + Depreciation of Fixed Assets + Amortization of Intangible Assets 23

24 Investor Presentation March