Investor Presentation. Forth Quarter 2015

Transcription

1 Investor Presentation Forth Quarter 2015

2 Important Notice Safe harbor statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent, belief, plans, current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management, including statements with respect to YPF s future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes and reserves, as well as YPF s plans, expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond YPF s control or may be difficult to predict. YPF s actual future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes, reserves, capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies, as well as actual future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining margins and exchange rates, could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, oil, gas and other price fluctuations, supply and demand levels, currency fluctuations, exploration, drilling and production results, changes in reserves estimates, success in partnering with third parties, loss of market share, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, the risks of doing business in developing countries, legislative, tax, legal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, wars and acts of terrorism, natural disasters, project delays or advancements and lack of approvals, as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular, those described in Item 3. Key Information Risk Factors and Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects in YPF s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of the foregoing, the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur. Except as required by law, YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized. These materials do not constitute an offer for sale of YPF S.A. bonds, shares or ADRs in the United States or otherwise. 2

3 Agenda Company Overview Upstream and Downstream Financial Results Conclusions 3

4 Corporate Governance Shareholder structure 1 Board composition Chairman of the Board, Mr. Galuccio 48.99% 51.0% Other Members Mr. Rodríguez Simón Mr. Nagel Mr. Donnini Mr. Di Pierro Mr. Vaquié Mr. Trotta Mr. Soloaga Mr. Gutiérrez(*) Mr. Felices (*) Mr. Montamat (*) Shares Class A Mr. Apud Company Executives Mr. Dasso Mr. González Mr. Alfonsi Argentine government Argentine government Series A Free float Ratings 0.01% (*) Members of the Audit Comittee Markets B AA (Arg) Caa1 N/A (Arg) YPF YPFD (1) As of 22/12/15 4

5 Leading Integrated Energy Co. in Argentina Revenues 1 US$ 16,952 mm Adj. EBITDA LTM 1 2 US$ 5,171 mm Net income 1 US$ 538 mm Employees 4 22,032 Exploration and production Downstream - refining and logistics Downstream - petrochemicals Downstream - marketing Major Affiliates Production 7 : 250 Kbbl/d of crude oil, 49 Kbbl/d of NGL and 44 Mm3/d of natural gas Proved Reserves 3 4 in 2015: 679 mm bbl of liquids and 547 mm boe of gas Unique unconventional opportunities: Vaca Muerta, Lajas, Pozo D-129 Total refining Capacity: 320 Kbbl/d 4 5 (more than 50% 4 of Argentina s total capacity) High level of conversion and complexity Nearly 2,700 km 4 of crude oil and 1,801 km 4 of refined products pipeline The petrochemical business is integrated with the rest of the production chain Output Capacity: mm ton per annum The country s leading company in fuel marketing (56.5% 4 market share in diesel and gasoline) 1, service stations MEGA: Liquids separation and a fractioning plant Metrogas: Largest local gas distribution company Refinor: Refining, transportation and marketing of refined products Profertil: Fertilizer producer (urea and ammonia) AESA: Engineering, manufacturing, construction, operating and maintenance services to power and energy companies (1)YPF financial statements values in IFRS converted to US$ using 2015 average FX (2) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income for non controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial income (losses) gains on liabilities - Financial income gains (losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings + Impairment of fixed assets and Intangible assets. (3) Includes oil, condensates and liquids; converted using 1 boe = mmcf of gas as per 20-F (4) As per 20-F 2014 (5) Does not includes 50% of Refinor (13 kbbl/d). (6) Excludes 71 Refinor service stations. (7)

6 Leading Argentine O&G Company Upstream Market Share Breakdown (%) Downstream Market Share Breakdown (%) Oil Production 1 Others 4% 4% 4% 17% 45% Crude Processing 3 No. of Gas Stations 3 Others 8% 13% 55% Others 27% 35% 6% 20% 9% 15% 6% 6% 11% 15% Gas Production 1 Source: IAPG (1) Cumulative Jan Dec 2015 (2) Cumulative Jan Dec 2015 (3) As of December 2014 Others 16% 3% 5% 9% 9% 16% 42% Gasoline 2 Diesel 2 Others 14% 6% 5% 18% 57% Others 7% 15% 6% 13% 59% 6

7 Integrated Across Value Chain Oil business Domestic market Purchases Domestic market 76% Domestic prices (gasoline, diesel) 24% International prices (bunker, jet fuel, petrochemicals, lubricants, LPG and others) 92% Production 250 Kbbl/d Refining 299 Kbbl/d Exports International prices (naphtha, LPG, jet fuel, petrochemicals, fuel oil, soybean oil and meal and others) 8% Natural gas business Upstream 44 mm m 3 /d + Imports (Gas purchased by ENARSA) + Purchases Domestic market 52% 24% Residential + CNG 24% Industrial Power plants Production figures as of December

8 Agenda Company Overview Upstream and Downstream Financial Results Conclusions 8

9 Upstream - Significant Potential with Leading Market Position Cuyana Proved reserves: 67 mm boe % liquids: 98% % gas: 2% Production: 8.9 mm boe Neuquina Proved reserves: 727 mm boe % liquids: 43% % gas: 57% Production: mm boe Austral Proved reserves: 78 mm boe % liquids: 22% % gas: 78% Production: 10.2 mm boe Noroeste Proved reserves: 37 mm boe % liquids: 12% % gas: 88% Production: 7.6 mm boe Golfo San Jorge Proved reserves: 315 mm boe % liquids: 87% % gas: 13% Production: 45.6 mm boe YPF has 108 concessions in the most productive Argentine basins (total reserves 1P: 1,226 mm boe) and 38 exploration blocks in the country 2015 Proved reserves 1 Production share 2 Gas 45% Liquids 55% Tecpetrol 2% Chevron 3% Sinopec 3% Pluspetrol 3% Wintershall 5% Total Austral 5% Others 13% Pan American 18% Petrobras 5% YPF 43% Source: Company data 2015 (1) Includes international reserves of 2.3 MBOE (2) As of December Total: 1,226 mm boe Total: mm boe Source: IAPG, as of December

10 Recent Performance: Strong Emphasis in Production Increase Doubled investments Significant increase in activity Upstream Capex (US$ mm) 1 Rigs Standby Rigs WO Standby WO +188% +100% 2, % 4, % 6, % 5, Reverted downward trend in production seen in recent years; solid growth Crude oil production (k bbl/d) Natural gas production (mm m 3 /d) % (vs. 2012) % (vs. 2012) (1) Capex converted considering an average Fx for each period

11 Reserves Proven Reserves increased by 1.2%; tight and shale Reserves accounted for 11% of total P1 reserves. Total Hydrocarbon (Mboe) Liquids (Mbbl) Natural Gas (Mboe) RRR: 107% RRR: 104% RRR: 110% 1, % 1, % +1.9%

12 Upside from Unique Unconventional Opportunities NOROESTE CHACO PARANAENSE Tested & Producing 4,4 Vaca Muerta (shale oil / gas) Agrio (shale oil) Lajas (tight gas) Mulichinco (tight gas) Other Opportunities Noroeste - Cretaceous Yacoraite (shale / tight oil & gas) Noroeste - Tarija Los Monos (shale gas) CUYANA NEUQUINA GOLFO SAN JORGE AUSTRAL Pozo D-129 (shale oil / tight oil) Neuquina Los Molles (shale/ tight gas) Golfo San Jorge Neocomiano (shale oil / gas) Chaco Paranaense Devonian Permian (shale oil) Cuyana Cacheuta (shale oil) Potrerillos (tight oil) Austral Inoceramus 12

13 Vaca Muerta Unconventional Formation Description Shale oil & gas Vaca Muerta Gross Progress on Shale Oil & Gas Developments 424 Shale wells in production 173 Shale wells drilled in KBOE/D Shale Production Dry gas Wet gas Oil Area 30,000 km 2 Net YPF Area 12,472 km 2 Windows 1 Oil 77% Wet gas 5% Dry gas 18% Next Steps for 2016 Cost reduction initiatives for horizontal drilling: Usage of local natural sand New PAD design of 4 wells aligned to improve skidding capacity Batchdrilling and new technology for directional drilling Usage of new soluble plugs Labor efficiencies Vaca Muerta Barnett Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Bakken TOC (%) Thickness (mts) Reservoir pressure (psi) 4,500-9,500 3,000-4,000 7,000-12,000 2,000-5,500 2,500-8,500 4,200 (1) Estimated over YPF net acreage Source: SPE, Wood Mackenzie and YPF data. 13

14 Republic of Argentina Neuquina Basin Neuquén Province JV Partners: Chevron, Dow, Petrolera Pampa and Petronas Loma Campana (395 km 2-97,607 acres) La Amarga Chica (187 km 2-46,189 acres) El Orejano (45 km 2-11,090 acres) Rincón del Mangrullo (183 km 2-45,200 acres) Objective: Vaca Muerta Shale Oil with Chevron Objective: Vaca Muerta Shale Oil with Petronas Objective: Vaca Muerta Shale Gas with Dow Objective: Mulichinco Tight Gas with Petrolera Pampa 3.3% of total YPF s VM acreage % of total YPF s VM acreage % of total YPF s VM acreage 3 (1) 395 Km 2 / 12,075 Km 2 Development model 290 Km 2 (71,661 acres) Directional wells upside 105 Km 2 (25,946 acres) Pilot: 130 wells and US$1.24 bn (2) 187 Km 2 / 12,075 Km 2 Pilot consisted on US$550 mm investment ~ 35 wells to be drilled both verticals and horizontal (3) 45 Km 2 / 12,075 Km 2 Initial investment of US$188 mm 16 wells to be drilled 1 st stage 40 km 2 of 3D seismic 34 wells to be drilled 2 nd stage 15 wells to be drilled Full program of ~1,500 wells (US$15 bn+) Estimated oil production: + 50 Kbbl/d Estimated gas production: 3 mm m 3 /d YPF Operates YPF Operates YPF Operates YPF Operates 14

15 Review of Operations Tight Gas Developments Tight gas production in 2015 represented 12.1% of total gas production. Loma La Lata (121 km 2 29,900 acres) (1) Objective: Lajas formation 100% YPF 26 wells drilled in 2015 (106 total wells drilled) Depth: 2,600 m to 2,800 m Rincón del Mangrullo (183 km 2-45,200 acres) Objective: Mulichinco formation 50% YPF 50% Petrolera Pampa 51 wells drilled in 2015 (89 total wells drilled) Depth: 1,600 m to 1,800 m Total Gross Production (Mm 3 /d) , Total Gross Production (Mm 3 /d) 0,87 1,22 1,42 1,80 2,09 2, ,04 0,14 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q (1) Refers to the Segmento 5 prospective area in Loma La Lata block. 15

16 Downstream - Solid Market Leadership A Luján de Cuyo refinery Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: 2 Production: 8.8 M boe Capacity: kbbl/d D Monthly Diesel Sales (Km 3 ) - 0.4% B La Plata refinery Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: 2 Production: 8.8 M boe Capacity: 189 kbbl/d A C B Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthly Gasoline Sales (Km 3 ) Source: 20-F 2014 (1) YPF owns 50% of Refinor (not operated) Oil pipeline Products pipeline Terminals C D Plaza Huincul refinery Capacity: 25 kbbl/d Refinor (1) Capacity: 26.1 kbbl/d % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 16

17 Downstream Performance Crude processing up 2.9% with 94% of capacity used. Sales of refined products grew 2% with gasoline growth of 3.6% and flat diesel volumes. Crude processed (kbbl/d) Domestic sales of refined products (Km 3 ) % % 16,634 17, % Others LPG +4% Fuel Oil JP1 0% Gasoline Diesel

18 Agenda Company Overview Upstream and Downstream Financial Results Conclusions 18

19 Results Continue to deliver solid results; Revenues down 4% and Adj. EBITDA up by 1%; delivering an Adj. EBITDA margin of 31% Revenues 1 (US$ mm) Adj. EBITDA (US$ mm) & Adj. EBITDA Margin (%) +6% -4% 14, % 16,514 17,576 16,952 27% 4, % 29% 31% +1% 5,128 5, EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) (1) YPF financial statements values in IFRS converted to US$ using average FX of each period (2) Considers non recurrent result for Q2 2013, not including a non cash provision of ARS 855 mm relating to claims arising from discontinuity of gas export contracts to Brazil in 2009 (3) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income for non controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial income (Losses) gains on liabilities - Financial income gains (Losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings+ Impairment of fixed assets and Intangible assets 19

20 Cash Flow From Operations Operating Cash Flow down due to working capital build-ups; higher cash position despite currency devaluation. Consolidated statement of cash flows 1 (US$ mm) Cash flow from operations 4 (US$ mm) 2,494 5,715-21% 4,492 4,492 1,148 1,185-6,949 Cash at the end of 2014 Cashflow from operations 2 3 Net financing Capex Cash at the end of (1) Cash converted to US$ using EOP FX rate of 8.5 and 13.0; Cash flow, Net financing and Capex converted to US$ using average of 2015 FX rate of 9.2. (2) Includes effect of changes in exchange rates. (3) Effective spendings in fixed assets acquisitions during the year. (4) Converted to US$ using average FX rate of each period. 20

21 2015 Financial Situation Leverage ratio within target; extended average life of debt. Increase in account receivables with public sector. Financial debt amortization schedule (in millions of USD) (1) (2) 2,981 Debt profile highlights Peso denominated debt: 27% of total debt 2,002 1,897 1,537 1,064 Average interest rates of 7.55% in USD and 24.59% in pesos Average life of almost 4.5 years Net Debt / Adj.EBITDA (3) = 1.35x Cash Includes additional issuance in the international market of Series XLVII of U.S.$ 1.0 billion (1) As of December 31, 2015, does not include consolidated companies (2) Converted to USD using the December 31, 2015 exchange rate of Ps 13.0 to U.S.$1.00. (3) Net debt to Adj. EBITDA calculated in USD, Net debt at period end exchange rate of Ps 13.0 to U.S. $1.0 and Adj. EBITDA at an average Ps 9.2 to U.S. $1.00; 6,956 / 5,171 =

22 Consolidated Balance Sheet Balance sheet 12/31/15 (Ps million) 12/31/14 (Ps million) VAR % 2015 / 2014 Cash & ST investments 15,387 9,758 58% Fixed assets 270, ,930 73% Other assets 77,161 41,866 84% Total assets 363, ,554 74% Loans 105,751 49, % Liabilities 137,241 86,468 59% Total Liabilities 242, ,773 79% Shareholders equity 120,461 72,781 66% Source: YPF financial statements 22

23 Consolidated Income Statement Income statement 12 months 2015 (Ps million) 12 months 2014 (Ps million) VAR % 2015/2014 Revenues 156, ,942 10% Operating income 16,588 19,742-16% Adj. EBITDA 1 47,556 41,412 15% Net income 2 4,579 9,002-49% Source: YPF financial statements (1) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income for non controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial income (losses) gains on liabilities - Financial income gains (losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings + Impairment of fixed assets and Intangible assets (2) Attributable to controlling shareholder. 23

24 Agenda Company Overview Upstream and Downstream Financial Results 4 Conclusions 24

25 Stock Performance YPF stock traded in line with Brent oil price and peer group, despite significantly better performance. Last Six Months Trading EBITDA Evolution ( ) 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% EV/EBITDA = 2.7x 50% jun-15 jul-15 ago-15 sep-15 oct-15 nov-15 dic-15 0% YPF International Peers Average Brent Price YPF Independents Majors Euro O&G Latam O&G 25

26 Bond Performance YPF strong credit metrics are not reflected in YTM; also decoupled from Argentine sovereign rally. Yield To Maturity Net Debt / EBITDA % x 2.75x Average= 2.28x x 1.35x x ene-15 feb-15 mar-15 abr-15 may-15 jun-15 jul-15 ago-15 sep-15 oct-15 nov-15 dic-15 YPF 2024 PBR 2024 ECO 2023 PEMEX 2023 Europeans Majors YPF Independents Latam HESS 2019 COP 2019 BONAR 24 26

27 2016 Outlook Since 2012 delivering results ahead of expectations and built a strong base to face the challenges of a transition year Adapt to a new business environment by: 20% / 25% Capex reduction Flat hydrocarbon production with focus in natural gas Focus on cost reduction opportunities Finalize our new coke project to increase diesel production by 10% Improve Operating Cashflow; two pump price increases YTD, 6% each Continue Vaca Muerta de-risking but at a slower pace Maintain target leverage ratio in USD at 1.5x (Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA); temporally exceeded during

28 NUESTRA ENERGÍA 28