CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

Transcription

1 FOURTH QUARTER UPDATE 2016 CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & MARKET FUNDAMENTALS << FRONT COVER >> Q TH ANNUAL EDITION

2 Copyright 2016 by Morguard Investments Limited. All rights reserved. Any request for reproduction of this Research Report should be directed to Keith Reading Director of Research FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS DISCLAIMER Statements contained herein that are not based on historical or current fact, including without limitation statements containing the words anticipates, believes, may, continue, estimate, expects and will and words of similar expression, constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, events or developments to be materially different from any future results, events or developments expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others, the following: general economic and business conditions, both nationally and regionally; changes in business strategy; financing risk; existing governmental regulations and changes in, or the failure to comply with, governmental regulations; liability and other claims asserted; and other factors. Given these uncertainties, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. The Publisher does not assume the obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

3 FOURTH QUARTER UPDATE 2016 CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & MARKET FUNDAMENTALS TABLE OF CONTENTS Financial Report 4 Investment Report 5 Leasing Report 6 Economic Report 7 Transactions 8 Acknowledgements / Works Cited 9

4 FINANCIAL REPORT US Federal Funds Rate Bank of Japan Policy Rate Official Policy Rates International Monetary Conditions European Central Bank Target Rate Cdn Overnight Lending Rate Source: Bank Of Canada; Federal Reserve Board; European Central Bank; Bank of Japan Index (1994:4 = 100) Global Indices Trending of Global Price Return Indices Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Euro D.J. Stoxx 50 France CAC 40 German DAX UK: FTSE 100 S&P/TSX Composite Source: RBC Capital Markets National Inflation CPI Measures, Change Over 1 Year Ago Core CPI (CPIX) Total CPI Inflation Control Target Source: Bank Of Canada, Statistics Mortgage Spreads Commercial Mortgage Rates Vs. 5-Year GOC Bonds Dec-87 Dec-88 Dec-89 Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 5-Year Commercial Mortgage Rate Source: RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada 5-Year GoC Bond Yield CANADIAN HOUSEHOLD DEBT STILL A BIG RISK The rising level of Canadian consumer indebtedness continued to be the leading risk to the health of the nation s financial system. Households continued to post higher levels of debt in the fourth quarter. Moreover, and more importantly, the percentage of households with high rates of mortgage debt relative to income increased in most regions. The percentage of borrowers with loan-to-income ratios of more than 45 increased across the country to 1 by the start of the fourth quarter, up from 1 a year ago according to Bank of Canada (BofC) statistics. Fueled by house price inflation, the phenomena has spread to the outskirts of Toronto, to cities like Hamilton and Oshawa. More broadly, the national debt-to-disposable-income ratio has also reached a 17-year high of close to 17. Since the summer of 2016, a number of policy initiatives were introduced by various levels of government to improve the quality of borrowing on a go-forward basis. Federal policy introduced in the fall was expected to reduce the number of households with high levels debt by increasing mortgage qualification requirements. Restrictions on requirements of low-ratio mortgages for mortgage insurance, tighter mortgage underwriting, the new 15.0 foreign buyer transfer tax and empty homes tax in Vancouver were also initiated to reduce indebtedness levels. In so doing, these policies were enacted to alleviate the potential impacts on Canada s financial system related to the any cut back on spending or loan defaults on the part of Canadian households. INFLATION HELD BELOW BANK OF CANADA TARGET Canadian inflation pressure remained low during the fourth quarter, a performance that was marked by a degree of variation. To end the quarter, an uptick in the inflation rate was recorded in December. The main driver of this trend was higher food prices, shelter and transportation costs. The rate of 1.6 reported in the final month of the year was the highest level in more than a year. Canadians paid 3.7 more for food in December than a year earlier. In other words, the cost of groceries increased by more than double the overall rate of price inflation. The cost of transportation, including gas, increased by 0.6, after 13 consecutive declines. A low Canadian dollar was expected to push prices for food and gasoline down over the near term. The December boost in prices came after a surprising reduction in the rate of inflation in November. The headline rate fell to 1.2 from 1.5 in October. All three of the BofC s new preferred measures of core inflation slowed during the month of October. The main source of slower price growth was gasoline, which fell by 1.7 year over year. Clothing and footwear also had a negative effect on inflation with a year-over-year dip of 1.2. Overall, inflation is expected to strengthen over the near term but range below the BofC s target of. This was consistent with the slow-growth economic outlook, resulting in measure of excess supply. Headline inflation will move slightly as energy prices slowly improve. U.S. FINANCIAL MARKET REFLECTED IMPROVED RISK SENTIMENT Fourth quarter U.S. financial market performance was indicative of improved investor confidence, despite potential downside risks associated with the recent election result. As the fourth quarter drew to a close, the S&P 500 was close to 5.0 higher than prior to the election. Moreover, 10-year U.S. treasury yields were up more than 50 bps. These increases ran counter to concerns related to the downside risks of Trump s protectionist platform and uncertainty surrounding the direction of U.S. fiscal policy in the coming months, according to a recent RBC report. A string of positive economic and financial news boosted investor confidence. In the final month of 2016, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a year, with further increases expected. To some degree, the Fed s confidence in the U.S. outlook was echoed in the fourth quarter financial market performance. 4 Q UPDATE 2016 CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

5 INVESTMENT REPORT PROPERTY YIELDS STABILIZED Canadian property sector cap rates were largely unchanged in the final quarter of 2016, despite a narrowing of the spread between property and 10- year Government of Canada bonds. During the quarter 10-year Government of Canada bond yields increased to a high of just over 1.8 in late December, up almost 70 bps over a two-month period. A similar upward trend was reported for U.S. treasury yields. The international nature of the bond market was bound to have a knock on effect. Canadian bonds were below as recently as September. Increased bond yields have already pushed fixed mortgage rates higher in Canada, adding to the cost of debt-servicing costs for consumers. In the commercial property market, the gap between bond yields and property yields has narrowed. Effectively, this has reduced the risk premium associated with property investment. History suggests the narrowing of this gap will at some point result in upward pressure on property yields. However, above average capital availability and limited buying opportunity may at least partially offset this yield pressure. CAPITAL FLOWED INTO SECTOR AT RECORD PACE The flow of capital into Canada s commercial property investment market looked to have reached an annual record high during 2016 as the fourth quarter came to a close. CBRE reported a total of $27.4 billion in transaction volume over the first three quarters of the year alone. Transaction closures expected in the final days of 2016 pointed to an annual total beyond the 2007 peak of $32.1 billion. Transaction activity recorded during 2016 was the result of strong demand patterns. Pension funds, private capital, institutions and publicly traded entities were all active, along with increased acquisition activity on the part of foreign groups. Chinese and German groups each acquired a significant property over the past year. The motivation for off-shore capital was the desire to place funds in a market with a history of stability relative to other parts of the world. Others took advantage of currency trends that cast the sector in a more favourable light. In a broader sense, access to low-cost debt and equity capital continued to drive activity levels for both domestic and international buyers. A number of domestic holders of core assets pruned portfolios of non-core assets or made adjustments to partnerships, in order to solidify their position in core assets. Some groups also looked to take advantage of the pricing cycle to redeploy capital. Property values held firm at the peak in most regions except for resource-focused markets. With demand continuing to surpass the supply of assets for acquisition values increased for prime assets. Regardless of the motivation, investor demand for Canadian commercial investment property pushed transaction activity levels to a new high during OUTLOOK FOR 2017 IS GENERALLY STABLE The outlook for Canada s commercial property investment market is generally favourable over the near term. The country s oil industry is expected to gradually strengthen as 2017 progresses, resulting in economic stabilization in the region. As a result, the national economy is forecast to expand by a modest 1.8 during the year. This will support demand for office and industrial space in most regions. In Alberta, leasing market conditions will remain relatively soft, a performance that will be exacerbated by the delivery of new office space. The retail sector will continue to suffer the effects of tenant consolidation activity, however the country s best malls will continue to thrive. Demand for rental apartments will continue to outpace supply. Rental market progress will support positive attractive returns across much of the market. Values will hold at current levels. All in all, another period of mostly positive property market performance is projected for at least the next year. $ Billions Yield Spreads Cap Rates vs. 10-Year GOC Bonds Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 GOC 10-Year Yield Office-CBD Retail-Regional Industrial-Multi Tenant Apartment-Suburban Source: AltusInSite; Bank of Canada Relative Performance Comparing Annualized Returns To Sept $17.3 $14.6 $13.2 $1 0.7 Investment Activity Total Investment Volume $ $ Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year S&P/TSX Index T-Bill SCM Long Bond TSX REIT Index RCPI/IPD Index Source: RCPI / IPD; RBC CM; TSX Datalinx; SCM; PC Bond Analytics 1 1 RCPI/IPD Returns Annualized Returns By Property Type To Sept $ Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year Industrial Office Retail Apartment Source: RCPI; MSCI Real Estate 2016 $21.7 $1 $19.5 $23.6 $30.6 $26.8 $26.1 $ F $35.0 Domestic Foreign Q4 '16 Forecast Source: CBRE Limited 2016 CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & MARKET FUNDAMENTALS Q UPDATE 5

6 LEASING REPORT Retail Vacancy Rates National Trending Across Property Types Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Super Regional Regional Community Centre Neighbourhood Source: MSCI Real Estate 2016 Calgary Edmonton Montreal National Ottawa Halifax Winnipeg Toronto Vancouver Victoria Office Demand & Supply National Historical & Forecast Aggregates F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Net Absorption (RS) New Construction (RS) Occupancy Rate (LS) Source: CBRE Limited; CBRE Econometric Advisors Industrial Demand & Supply National Historical & Forecast Aggregates F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Net Absorption (RS) New Construction (RS) Occupancy Rate (LS) Source: CBRE Limited; CBRE Econometric Advisors CMA's Rental Vacancy Rates for Structures of 3 units Source: CMHC, Housing Market Outlook F Millions of Square Feet Millions of Square Feet VANCOUVER AND TORONTO STRENGTH PERSISTED THROUGH TO YEAREND The strength of the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto office leasing markets persisted through to the end of Average vacancy for all classes of space combined in the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) fell by 60 bps during the final quarter of the year to In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), vacancy held fairly firm at 9.2 over the same period, according to CBRE statistics. In contrast, national vacancy increased by 40 bps during the final three months of the year. To a large extent the recent leasing market strength reported in these two markets was focused in their respective downtown areas. Vancouver s downtown submarket registered vacancy of 7.7 at the end of the fourth quarter, down 230 bps year over year and 120 bps quarter over quarter. During 2016, Toronto downtown vacancy dipped by 70 bps to end the year at 4.4. Increasingly tight leasing market conditions in both the GVA and GTA over the past year affected the market in two significant ways. First, average rents steadily increased over the year, with owners often holding the upper hand in lease negotiations. Second, midsized and large tenants were left with fewer options upon leasing expiry, particularly downtown. Outside of the GVA and GTA, leasing performance was not as strong. The oil sector downturn continued to push downtown vacancy higher during 2016 in Calgary and Edmonton, with plenty of options for tenants. The Montreal and Winnipeg leasing markets were more balanced, given modest downward vacancy pressure during In light of recent performances, it was not surprising that the GVA and GTA office markets were the most popular with investors over the recent past. SOLID FINISH TO THE YEAR FOR INDUSTRIAL Healthy leasing market conditions reported in the final quarter of 2016 were consistent with those of the past year. National vacancy decline edged 20 bps lower to 5.3 quarter over quarter. The yearend rate was 40 bps lower than recorded a year earlier. Vacancy levels continued to descend in most regions, except for Alberta and Montreal. The lowest vacancy levels at the end of the fourth quarter were Vancouver and Toronto at 3.9 and 3.3, respectively. Both markets exhibited considerable tightness during the fourth quarter, mirroring the trend in the office market. Tenants were hard pressed to source space required for expansion of their businesses. While a struggle for tenants, the shortfall in available space was a boon for owners who were able to command higher rents. Weak demand patterns in Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal had the opposite effect. In these regions, tenants were able to choose space that best fit their needs. Landlords competed for the relatively low number of tenants looking to expand by lowering rents and offering incentives. In certain instances, businesses were able to move up the quality ladder and move into newly built space. The most active business sectors across the market were consumer goods and distribution and warehouse. The resulting expansions supported leasing market progress during 2016, including the final three months of the year. RENTAL MARKET SOFTENED IN RESOURCE-DRIVEN REGIONS Fourth quarter multi-suite residential rental market fundamentals reflected the softening trend that unfolded during Vacancy levels increased in prime resource markets including Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon. Calgary CMA vacancy surged to a 25-year high of 7.0 from 5.3, year over year as of October. Over the same period, Edmonton CMA vacancy increased from 4.2 to 7.1 and Saskatoon CMA from 6.5 to Coincidentally, the average asking two-bedroom monthly rent fell by 0.9 in Saskatoon, 7.5 in Calgary and 3.5 in Edmonton. Until the global market for oil resources improves, owners in these regions will struggle to maintain income performance. 6 Q UPDATE 2016 CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

7 ECONOMIC REPORT ECONOMY WAS SLOW OUT OF THE GATE Canada s economy started the fourth quarter with a slight contraction, following four consecutive months of expansion. In October, national GDP regressed by 0.3, a performance that was rooted in the goods-producing sector. Goods production output fell by 1.3 in October, fueled by a slide in manufacturing. Statistics Canada indicated the reduction was a byproduct of a slowdown in export activity. Output in the mining, quarrying and oil and gas sectors also fell by an average of 1.2. This followed a steady growth pattern during the second and third quarters. In contrast, services output improved slightly, to the tune of a 0.1 lift. Retail and wholesale trade increased by 0.7 and 0.6, respectively. The 0.5 decline in finance and insurance more than offset the real estate and leasing gain. In a broader context, the reduction in overall economic output was not unexpected after four consecutive months of growth. Over the near term, the Canadian economy was expected to slowly expand following a weak start to the final quarter of JOB MARKET ENDED 2016 WITH A BANG A stronger-than-expected labour market performance in the final weeks of 2016 indicated Canada s economy may have turned a corner. During December a total of 54,000 jobs were created according to Statistics Canada s Labour Force Survey. During the fourth quarter a total of 108,000 jobs were created, including 81,000 full-time positions in December. The national unemployment rate increased by 10 bps in December, due to an increase in the participation rate. This was another labour market positive. Over the fourth quarter unemployment fell by 10 bps ending the year at 6.9. The service sector continued to account for the highest share of job growth, with a total of almost 130,000 positions added during Despite a solid final month of the year, the manufacturing sector lost over 53,000 positions during the past year. Not surprisingly Ontario and British Columbia were leaders in job growth, while Alberta shed 18,800 positions during These performances were reflected in commercial property market trends. Job growth in Ontario and B.C. was focused in office space using sectors. Their respective office leasing markets were the strongest in the country. Alberta s 2016 job losses had negatively affected the region s office, multisuite residential rental and industrial markets. In short, the strong finish to the year for Canada s labour market may have been a turning point for the national economy. RESALE HOUSING MARKET PARTY MAY NOT BE OVER JUST YET Toronto s resale housing sector continued to thrive through to the end of the year, while much of the rest of the country exhibited some softening. Sales increased by in December, due in part to a material reduction in availability. Average resale pricing was up 2 year over year. Sales increased by just over in December, following a sharp decline in the previous month. While Toronto continued to thrive the rest of the country began to soften in the late stages of The average national home price fell by 1.9 in December month over month and was up a modest 3.5 year over year. In one of the country s hottest markets during 2016, Vancouver, sales fell by 4 year over year as of December. Looking ahead to 2017, Canada s resale home market was expected to soften more sharply. The impact of higher interest rates and newly instituted mortgage qualification measures will have a negative effect on the market as the year progresses. Many buyers are expected to take advantage of lower pre-approved rates early in the year. This anticipated increase in in activity will ease during As a result, price growth will slow in most regions, including Toronto. In Vancouver, pricing levels will flatten due in large part to the new foreign buyer tax. In the short term however, Toronto s resale housing market party will continue Economic Growth Real GDP Growth - Historical & Forecast F 17F Canada United States World Source: Conference Board Of Canada (Dec 2016); International Monetary Fund (Oct 2016) Thousands of Jobs Source: Statistics Canada Source: Statistics Canada Thousands Labour Market Month-Over-Month Trending Employment Growth (LS) Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Trending Month/Month Change (LS) Unemployment Rate (RS) Monthly Level (RS) Housing Starts (LS) Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Housing Market Monthly Trends 5-Year Mortgage Rate (RS) $45.0 $42.5 $4 $37.5 $35.0 $32.5 $3 $27.5 $ Millions 2016 CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & MARKET FUNDAMENTALS Q UPDATE 7

8 INVESTMENT MARKET TRANSACTIONS Q OFFICE Property Date Price SF PSF Purchaser City 141 Adelaide St W Dec-16 $125.1 M 187,945 $666 Hydro Quebec Toronto Rene-Levesque W Dec-16 $429.0 M 933,033 $456 Investors Grp/GWL Montreal 16 Place du Commerce Dec-16 $16.5 M 164,774 $100 Groupe Mach Montreal 3650 Victoria Park Ave Nov-16 $3 M 154,284 $220 True North REIT Toronto 9050 Yonge St Nov-16 $22.5 M 91,277 $247 Montez/Adgar Toronto 1005 Skyview Dr Oct-16 $20.1 M 102,284 $196 Private Toronto Mission Comm. Health Centre Oct-16 $15.5 M 25,894 $599 Kingvision Enterprises Vancouver INDUSTRIAL Property Date Price SF PSF Purchaser City Erin Mills Meadowvale Dec-16 $88.3 M 502,254 $176 GWL Realty Advisors Toronto 33 Green Belt Dr Dec-16 $1 M 142,000 $127 OTT Financial Toronto 1602 Tricont Ave Dec-16 $1 M 227,000 $57 KingSett Capital Toronto 1590 South Gateway Rd Dec-16 $23.8 M 195,322 $122 ICBC Toronto 5900 Finch Ave E Dec-16 $13.3 M 166,751 $80 Soneil International Toronto 335 Britannia Rd E Nov-16 $18.4 M 207,449 $90 Menkes Developments Toronto Artis REIT Alberta Nov-16 $171.1 M 1,200,000 $143 Pure Industrial REIT Edm/Cal St Oct-16 $12.3 M 75,000 $163 Imperial Equities Edmonton th Ave NE Oct-16 $22.8 M 217,751 $105 Telus Pension Fund Calgary 7510 Bren Rd Oct-16 $17.2 M 201,104 $85 Panattoni/Greystone Toronto RETAIL Property Date Price SF PSF Purchaser City Northpointe Crossing Dec-16 $2 M 45,851 $436 MSJR Holdings Med. Hat Yonge St Nov-16 $29.0 M 17,900 $1,620 Crombie REIT Toronto Terrarium Centre Oct-16 $62.2 M 381,547 $163 Smart REIT Montreal Terra Losa Shopping Ctr Oct-16 $97.1 M 343,500 $282 Bentall Kennedy Edmonton 81 Yorkville Ave Oct-16 $15.5 M 9,815 $1,579 Prowinko Toronto MULTI-SUITE RESIDENTIAL Property Date Price # Units /Unit Purchaser City 1316 Carling Ave Dec-16 $31.4 M 201 $156,294 Homestead Ottawa 3655 Papineau Ave Nov-16 $1 M 121 $148,636 Timbercreek AM Montreal 2703 James Mowatt Tr SW Oct-16 $37.0 M 200 $185,175 Skyline REIT Edmonton Vantage Towers Oct-16 $57.0 M 329 $173,252 Minto Group Toronto 2,4 Greentree Crt, 31 Clearview Oct-16 $14.1 M 115 $122,391 Marlin Spring Toronto 67 & 70 Parkwoods Village Dr Oct-16 $15.0 M 144 $190,972 Starlight Investments Toronto * share sale 8 Q UPDATE 2016 CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

9 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS & CITED RESEARCH RESOURCES In the course of compiling the statistical information and commenting on real estate markets, national, regionally and across Canadian metropolitan areas, we acknowledge the assistance and feedback from the following parties in completing this report: The Altus Group, Avison Young, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, BMO Economics, BMO Nesbitt Burns, British Bankers Association, Brunsdon Martin & Associates, CBRE Econometric Advisors, CBRE Limited, CIBC World Markets, Canada Newswire, Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Canadian Mortgage Loans Services Limited, The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Colliers International, Commercial Edge, Conference Board of Canada, Cushman & Wakefield, Developers and Chains e-news, Economy.com, European Central Bank, The Federal Reserve Board, Frank Russell Canada (RCPI), The Globe and Mail, ICR Commercial Real Estate, International Council of Shopping Centres (ICSC), Insite-Altus Research, International Monetary Fund, jlr Land Title Solutions, The Johnson Report (Winnipeg), Jones Lang LaSalle, Monday Report on Retailers, MSCI, Ottawa Business Journal, PC Bond Analytics, PricewaterhouseCoopers, RBC Capital Markets, RBC Economics, RealNet Canada Inc., RealTrack Inc., Rogers Media, Statistics Canada, Scotia Capital, TD Economics, Toronto Star, Torto Wheaton Research, Urban Land Institute, United States Department of the Treasury, York Communications

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