PBZ Weekly Analysis. Number 637, February 11, Weekly overview (p. 1) CNB intervenes (p. 1) Excess liquidity down (p. 2)

Transcription

1 PBZ Weekly Analysis Number 637, February 11, 2019 Weekly overview (p. 1) CNB intervenes (p. 1) Excess liquidity down (p. 2) Crobex in negative territory (p. 2) Statistics (pp. 4-5)

2 Weekly overview Total exports of goods in November decreased Merchandise exports, % y/y change Source: CBS Manufact. articles 1,2 by 2.4% yoy (to HRK 9.9 billion), while the -27,7 Machinery & transp.eq. 4,1 2,6 imports of goods simultaneously rose by 11.6% Manuf.goods by materials 8,1 16,2 Chemilcals -6,5 (to HRK 15.5 billion), due to which the foreign 20,8 Anim.& veg.oils 7,1 20,0 trade deficit in the indicated month strongly Mineral fuels 6,6 26,8 Crude materials, ex.fuels 1,9 increased by 50% (to HRK 5.6 billion), while the 15,4 Bevrages & tob. 16,8 27,8 coverage of imports by exports decreased by 9.2 Food & live an. 6,6 0,3 I-XI 2018/ I-XI 2017 p.p. (to 64.1%). Over the first eleven months of Total 3,7 2017/ ,5-40,0-30,0-20,0-10,0 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 2018, total exports of goods rose by 3.7% yoy (+14.3% over the same period of 2017), reaching HRK 99.4 billion, where the strongest contribution to this trend came from 24% higher exports in the category Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (partly owing to an increase in the prices of crude oil, thus making this category's share in total exports of goods the most significant). A relatively strong contribution to an increase in total exports of goods came also from higher exports in the categories Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (+24.8%) and Manufacture of basic metals (+23.7%). Simultaneously, total imports of goods climbed by 7.9% yoy (+11.7% over the first eleven months of 2017), or to HRK billion, due to which the foreign trade deficit advanced by 15.3%, or HRK 63.4 billion, while the rate of coverage declined to 61.1% (from 63.6% over the first eleven months of 2017). Total exports of goods to EU Member States (68.8% share in total exports of goods) rose by 9.6% yoy (to HRK 68.4 billion), while the exports to CEFTA countries (16.8% share) was down by 0.3% (to HRK 16.7 billion), of which mainly to Serbia (-6.1%). The preliminary data for the last month of 2018 indicate a decrease in the exports of goods of 6.1% and an increase in the imports of 1.3% yoy, resulting in a 18.5% higher foreign trade deficit and a decline in the coverage rate of 5.1 p.p. to 64.8%. Taking into account the preliminary results, total exports of goods in 2018 increased by 2.9% versus the year before, i.e. to a total of HRK billion, which is a substantially slower growth versus the average of the previous four years (average growth around 9.6%), partly a result of weaker foreign demand, whereas exports simultaneously increased by 7.4% (to HRK billion) and partly owing to a further recovery of domestic demand. The foreign trade deficit thereby reached HRK 67.8 billion, +15.5% yoy (the highest level since 2008, when deficit amounted to HRK 81.2 billion), while the coverage rate dropped from 64.1% in 2017 to 61.3% in CNB intervenes Last week, global FX markets saw a substantial strengthening of the dollar against the euro of 1.2% wow, to 1.13 dollar to the euro, after the release of the European Commission projections confirming the slowdown of the Eurozone. The appreciation pressures on the kuna increased, therefore the exchange rate fell to 7.40, while the central bank intervened for the first time this year, purchasing 450 million euro at the average exchange 1

3 rate of kuna to the euro. The mid-exchange rate on Friday amounted to kuna to the euro, down by 0.1% versus the Friday before. The kuna lost its value against the dollar and the exchange rate climbed to kuna to the dollar, which is up by 1.0% wow. This week, we anticipate trading in the range kuna to the euro. Excess liquidity down Excess liquidity decreased to 27 billion kuna, while interest rate recorded only minor changes (overnight Zibor +3 b.p. to 0.33%, 1M +1 b.p. to 0.43%, 3M unchanged at 0.49%). There was no activity at the CNB's repo auction, the ZMM turnover amounted barely to 5 million kuna and there was no T-bill auction. This week, 1.3 billion kuna in T-bills matures and the auction with the planned 1.0 billion kuna has been announced. Crobex in negative territory Last week, the total ZSE turnover amounted to million kuna, which is down by 23.3% versus the week before, due to a drop in the turnover in bonds of 22.8% (to million kuna) and a drop in the turnover in shares of 37.3% (to 21.4 million kuna). Last week, the Crobex Index closed at 1, points, which is a decrease of 0.2% wow, whereas Crobis stagnated at the same time (at points). As regards sector indices, CROBEXindustry rose on Friday by 2.6% wow (to points), 2

4 CROBEXconstruct climbed by 1.2% (to points), while CROBEXtourist declined by 0.2% (to 3, points). 3

5 Statistics 4

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7 RESEARCH OFFICE Ivana Jović Ana Lokin Ivan Odrčić TREASURY Eugen Bulat LEGAL DISCLAIMER This publication is issued by PRIVREDNA BANKA ZAGREB-DIONIČKO DRUŠTVO, Zagreb, Radnička 50 (hereinafter: PBZ) and aimed at clients of the PBZ Group. This publication is intended for information purposes only and may not in any way be considered an offer or invitation to purchase any property or rights mentioned in it. The informative nature of this publication means that it may not serve as a substitute for the personal judgment and assessment of any reader or anyone who receives this publication. The information, opinions, analyses, conclusions, forecasts and projections given here are founded on publicly available data whose accuracy PBZ relies on, but cannot guarantee. Accordingly, all the opinions, attitudes, conclusions, forecasts and projections given in this publication are subject to changes, which depend on changes to the data as published by the source used. PBZ allows further utilization of the data given in this publication on the condition that the publication is indicated as the source. All the property mentioned in this publication and whose movement is the subject of comment may from time to time be the subject of trade or positions taken by PBZ. 6