PBZ Weekly Analysis. Number 478, June 15, Weekly overview (p. 1) Euro ascends, kuna appreciation continues (p. 1)

Transcription

1 PBZ Weekly Analysis Number 478, June 15, 215 Weekly overview (p. 1) Euro ascends, kuna appreciation continues (p. 1) Money market at a standstill (p. 2) Positive trend in ZSE (p. 2) Statistics and macroeconomic forecasts (p. 4-5)

2 Weekly overview According to the Croatian Bureau of Statistics data, the total exports of goods in the first three months amounted to 19.8 billion kuna (+9.7% yoy), while imports reached 32.7 billion kuna or 7.2% more compared with the same period of 214. The foreign trade deficit was 12.9 billion kuna and the coverage of imports by exports was 6.5%. According to the preliminary data, exports of goods increased by 1%, while imports grew by 4% in the first four months. Goods export by SITC sections, % Goods imports by SITC sections, % 1Q215 24,2 16,9 1Q214 11,4 8,1 9,2 Food and live animals Beverages and tobacco Crude materials, except fuels Mineral fuels, lubricants and related mat. Animal and vegetable oils, fats Chemicals and products Manufac. goods class. by material 1Q215 23,4 14,5 1,8 1Q214 14,8 11,4 Machinery and transport eq. 15, 16,2 Miscell. manufact. articles Commodities and trans. n.c.e. 18,1 As gross indices show, construction works in March rose by 2.5% from March of 214 since the end of 28, according to gross indices, a positive rate was recorded only in March of 29, also in February and December of 213. According to working-day adjusted data, March saw an increase of 1.2% yoy with the exception of March 29 and February 213, this is the first positive rate according to working-day adjusted indices recorded since the end of 28. The growth of construction activities in March came primarily as a result of the construction of buildings (+3.2%), whereas the construction of civil engineering works dropped by 3.3%. Euro ascends, kuna appreciation continues The euro has continued to strengthen against the dollar by the middle of last week, reaching 1.13, however, it lost some of its value at the end of the week, after the release of US data exceeded investor expectations. Still, EUR/USD closed on Friday at dollar to the euro, up by 1.4% compared with the previous Friday. The franc remained unchanged against the euro wow, closing the week at EUR/ USD Izvor/ Source: Bloomberg EUR/ CHF Izvor/ Source: Bloomberg 1,4 1,38 1,36 1,34 1,32 1,3 1,28 1,26 1,24 1,22 1,2 1,18 1,16 1,14 1,12 1,1 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,24 1,22 1,2 1,18 1,16 1,14 1,12 1,1 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,,98,96 1

3 The growth of FX inflows from tourism and exports resulted in a further strengthening of the kuna against the euro, therefore the mid-exchange rate was kuna to the euro at the end of last week, down by.2% wow. At the same time, the kuna weakened by.2% against the Swiss franc and by.6% against the dollar, to kuna to the franc, or kuna to the dollar. 7,74 7,72 7,7 7,68 7,66 7,64 7,62 7,6 7,58 7,56 7,54 7,52 EUR/ HRK 8, 7,8 7,6 7,4 7,2 7, 6,8 6,6 6,4 6,2 6, 5,8 5,6 5,4 USD/ HRK and CHF/ HRK CHF/ HRK USD/ HRK Money market at a standstill Interest rates: the Zibor on overnight loans closed the week at slightly corrected.39% (vs.34%), while 1M and 3M at.75% (vs.76%) or.93% (vs.94% the previous week). Last week, the turnover in the money market amounted to 17 million kuna, whereas the average daily supply exceeding demand was 172 million kuna. At the last week's auction, the Ministry of Finance issued a total of 726 million kuna in T-bills as follows: 4 million with 182-day maturity and a yield of.49% and 686 million with 364-day maturity and a yield of 1.5%. The overall debt under T-bills amounts to 31.5 billion kuna. There will be no maturity this week T-bills Source: MoF 2,5 1,5 1,,5 1,,9,8,7,6,5,4,3 ZIBOR Izvor/ Source: Reuters 28.5,,2 Total outstanding, HRK mill 1Y HRK interest rate 1Y EUR interest rate O/ N 1W 2W 1M Positive trend in ZSE Last week, a day longer, the total turnover in the ZSE was three times lower wow, amounting barely to 256 million kuna, due to a four times lower share turnover of 191 million kuna. The turnover in bonds rose by 3%, to 63 million kuna. 2

4 The Crobex increased by.7% wow, closing the week at 1, points, due to a mostly positive performance of the major index components shares (Ina +.6%, Adris Grupa +2.7%, HT -.9%, Valamar +.7%, Končar EI +2.%, Atlantic Grupa.%, Podravka +1.1%, Ledo -.2%, Ericsson NT - 7.3%). The highest turnover of 11 million kuna was achieved by the shares of Podravka, with a weekly growth of value from to kuna, followed by a turnover of 8 million kuna achieved by the preferential share of Adris grupa, the price of which grew from to kuna. The highest, 92 million kuna turnover in the debt market was achieved by the euro bond maturing in 219, whereas the Crobis closed the week at a.3% lower level of points. Crobex Izvor/ Source: ZSE Crobis Izvor/ Source: ZSE , 18,5 18, 17,5 17, 16,5 16, 15,5 15, 14,5 14, 3

5 21=1 yoy % mill %, yoy 21=1 % yoy 21=1 yoy% Statistics and macroeconomic forecasts Industrial production, wda yoy % ch. Source: Eurostat Retail trade, real, wda yoy ch. and index 21= IND_wda IND_sa IND_trend RETAIL TRADE TOTAL_wda RETAIL TRADE TOTAL_sa RETAIL TRADE TOTAL_trend 16 Construction works, yoy % ch. and index 21= Goods exports and imports (yoy % ch. and mill ) wda yoy % change (right) s.a. 21=1 (left) trend index 21=1 (left) Imports (mill, left) Exports (mill, left) Imports (yoy % ch., right) Exports (yoy % ch., right) 49. External debt, amount and share to GDP Sources: CNB, CBS, PBZ 112% 3. General government debt 9,% % 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 98% ,% 7,% 6,% 5,% 4,% 3,% 2,% 1,% % ,% Total, EUR mill External debt/ GDP (rhs) GG debt (hrk mill.- left) GG debt (% GDP - right) Employment, yoy rate of change and unemployment rate, % 24, 2 2, 18, 16, 14, 1 1, 8, 6, 4,, - -4, -6, -8, Net wages: amount and real yoy rate of change -6, , 4,, - -4, Employment, yoy rate of change Unemployment rate, registered Net wage, HRK Real yoy % change (rhs) 4

6 , Prices, yoy % change Sources: CBS, CNB 28 5Y CDS Spread, bps Source: Bloomberg 8, 26 6, 4, , , -6, -8, CPI PPI, domestic market Core CPI Croatia Hungary Romania Bulgaria 1, Loans, yoy % change 3, 14, Deposits, yoy % change 8, 6, 4,, - -4, -6, -8, -1, , 1, 2, 8, 6, 15, 4, 1, 5,, -, -4, -5, -6, -8, -1, -1, -14, -15, -1 Total Households Non-financial corporations Central government and soc. sec. funds (rhs) Total Households Non-financial corporations Interest rates on long-term loans, fx clause, euro (new business), % Interest rates on short-term time deposits (new business), % 7,5 3,5 7, 3, 6,5 2,5 6, 5,5 1,5 5, 1, 4,5,5 4, , Housing loans Loans to non-fin corporations Households, euro Non-financial corporations, kuna BASIC MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS based on data available till 3/25/ f GDP, current prices HRK mill GDP, current prices EUR mill GDP, real annual growth, in % -,4,3 GDP, nominal annual growth, in % -,4,3 CPI anual average, in % -,2, HRK / EUR annual average 7,63 7,66 HRK / USD* annual average 5,75 6,96 HRK / CHF* annual average 6,28 7,6 * computed on the basis of ISP forecasts for EUR/USD and EUR/CHF 5

7 RESEARCH OFFICE Ivana Jović, Ana Lokin, LEGAL DISCLAIMER This publication is issued by PRIVREDNA BANKA ZAGREB-DIONIČKO DRUŠTVO, Zagreb, Radnička 5 (hereinafter: PBZ) and aimed at clients of the PBZ Group. This publication is intended for information purposes only and may not in any way be considered an offer or invitation to purchase any property or rights mentioned in it. The informative nature of this publication means that it may not serve as a substitute for the personal judgment and assessment of any reader or anyone who receives this publication. The information, opinions, analyses, conclusions, forecasts and projections given here are founded on publicly available data whose accuracy PBZ relies on, but cannot guarantee. Accordingly, all the opinions, attitudes, conclusions, forecasts and projections given in this publication are subject to changes, which depend on changes to the data as published by the source used. PBZ allows further utilization of the data given in this publication on the condition that the publication is indicated as the source. All the property mentioned in this publication and whose movement is the subject of comment may from time to time be the subject of trade or positions taken by PBZ. 6