Schematic Depiction of General Equilibrium Baumol-Tobin Model. Source: Blanchard and Fischer, Lectures on Macroeconomics, MIT Press, 1989, p.

Transcription

1 Schematic Depiction of General Equilibrium Baumol-Tobin Model Source: Blanchard and Fischer, Lectures on Macroeconomics, MIT Press, 1989, p.179

2 Ausgewählte Zinsstrukturkurven im Euroraum; Quelle: AUG MAY SEP DEC MAR MAY Restlaufzeit in Monaten

3 US Treasury yields: 1yr, 10yr and Spread and NBER Recessions NBER recession dummy 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate spread

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5 Recent behaviour in market for US Treasuries and implications for Break-Even Inflation rates 10yr nominal yield, 10yr TIPS yield, and 10yr BEIR; Source: St. Louis Fed ; yr - Break-Even Inflation Rate ; Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity

6 Different measures of inflation expectations SPF BEIR MICHIGAN INFLATION 1.2 And two measures of increased inflation risk SPF_ST_DEV_OF_INFLAT GARCH_ST_DEV_OF_I

7 Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1 von :30 Press Release Release Date: December 16, 2008 For immediate release The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent. Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters. The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgagebacked securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco. The Board also established interest rates on required and excess reserve balances of 1/4 percent.

8 Printer Version - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1 von :32 Press Release Release Date: March 18, 2009 For immediate release Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract. Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession. Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth. In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term. In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months. The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial and economic developments. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

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10 The longterm consequences of the financial crisis: An econometric approach 1. Univariate evidence presented by Menzie Chinn Based on univariate time series analysis: Menzie specifically carried out different variants of so-called unit-root tests to test whether the log of US real GDP is trend or difference stationary. Clear result for the long time span he used: the log of US real GDP is trend-stationary! NB: But compare this to Nelson and Plosser s original essay, Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series, JME, Nelson and Plosser were amongst the first to carry out statistically sound unitroots tests for macroeconomic data, finding that US real GDP is indeed better described as a non-stationary stochastic process with no tendency to return to a trend line, i.e. that it does contain a unit-root.

11 2. Bivariate evidence presented by Brad DeLong