SINGAPORE FUND FLOWS SUMMARY. QUARTER END ANALYSIS December 31, 2010

Transcription

1 SINGAPORE FUND FLOWS SUMMARY QUARTER END ANALYSIS

2 Net Assets Swell in Q Amid Surging Fund Inflows into Singapore The pace of inflows kicked up a notch in the fourth quarter of 2010 amid strong regional cues, making it the strongest quarter on record in terms of net (S$1.35 billion) as well as gross (S$5.85 billion) inflows since Q and the start of the global financial crisis. This contrasts with net inflows to the tune of S$1.12 billion in Q4 2009, S$947 million in Q and S$156.9 million in Q2 2010, and net outflows of S$109.9 million in Q The quarter s gross outflows which were also some of the highest since Q were on account of mixed markets on the one hand, and high asset turnover among key performing asset classes on the other. It is also telling that both bond and equity funds witnessed comparable net inflows (S$761.9 million and S$858.8 million, respectively), while money market funds gave back S$176.2 million in assets net, over the course of the quarter. Total inflows into mixed-asset funds rose 25% against those in the previous quarter (to S$200 million), but were outpaced by total redemptions to the tune of to S$266.1 million, as markets remained mixed amid strong growth data and macro-level uncertainties. The bulk of the positive net flows were into aggressive styles, while balanced funds suffered the most (net outflows of S$58.7 million). Among the other asset classes, positive net flows among absolute return funds (+S$37 million) were offset by net outflows in commodities (-S$58 million) and protected (-S$5 million) funds and residual classes (-S$5.83 million). Executive Summary For Q Based on data submitted by participating IMAS members (see Appendix A), the Singapore unit trust market registered net inflows of S$1.35 billion for fourth quarter 2010, marking a strong return to the trend of asset growth, after the contraction (by S$109.9 million) during the previous quarter. The quarter s inflows came amidst healthy returns among global equities and commodities, strong demand for regional debt, and generally positive macroeconomic cues globally. The volume of inflows had even prompted Singapore policymakers to revise, in November, the band in which the Singapore dollar trades, in an effort to rein in inflation. It is telling that both gross inflows and gross outflows were significantly higher than in recent quarters, and net inflows were spread out across key asset classes, among the various authorised and recognised unit trust schemes registered for sale in Singapore 1. Again, the rise in gross outflows may be explained by market conditions that were choppy on occasion and that favoured risk-aversion in certain regions, while the steady pace of gross inflows points to investment bright spots among regional (Asia/ emerging markets) equity and debt allocations. 1 Refers to applicable Authorized Schemes and Recognized Schemes offered for sale to retail investors as well as selected Restricted Schemes, which can be offered only to sophisticated investors. Further information on the Collective Investment Scheme (CIS) regimes can be found at Page 1 of 16

3 Table 1 Estimated Fund Flows by Major Asset Classes for Q (SGD Mil) Inflows Outflows Net Flows Asset Class CPF Non-CPF Total CPF Non-CPF Total Bond 0.4 1, , , , Equity , , , , Mixed Assets Money Market 0.0 1, , , , Other Total , , , , ,346.4 NB: Non-CPF numbers may include flows into/from the Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS) accounts as well as selected sophisticated funds distributed by participating IMAS members. Total net flows in the table may differ because of rounding of numbers. * Includes Target Maturity Funds. For fourth quarter 2010, equity offerings witnessed the strongest asset flows (in both directions) among all asset classes. Healthy Q corporate earnings announcements, positive macroeconomic cues emanating from several Asian/emerging economies and a slightly more optimistic outlook for the US and core Eurozone countries, helped buoy inflows; on the flip side, the reemergence of fiscal concerns in the peripheral Eurozone nations, as also the weaker-than-expected stimulus announced by the Federal Reserve in its second round of quantitative easing, had a similar effect on total outflows. Bond and money market products also witnessed a high volume of asset flow activity amid differential risk appetites across regional markets. On the whole, market activity during the quarter has helped sharply extend the run of asset inflow activity into the fourth quarter of 2010, marking a handsome 59% increase (to S$5.85 billion) from the previous quarter s gross inflows figure; not only did bond, equity and money market offerings all see upwards of S$1 billion each in gross inflows, but gross inflows far outpaced gross outflows (which rose 19% quarter-on-quarter, to S$4.5 billion). In both cases, the highest volume of activity was seen among equity offerings (which accounted for nearly half of total inflows and two-fifths of total outflows during the quarter). Specifically, the asset classes attracting net inflows were equity (+S$858.8 million) and bond (+S$761.9 million) unit trusts, in contrast with net outflows among money market (-S$176.2 million) and mixed asset (-S$66.1 million) funds and residual asset classes (-S$31.9 million). Page 2 of 16

4 Figure 1 Performance of Key Technical Indicators during Q The high-activity asset class products (see Table 2 on the following page) were concentrated in Singapore dollar-denominated bond and money market offerings (as the Singapore dollar continued to strengthen against most major currencies during Q4-2010), in global bond products, and in equity offerings allocating to Asian and/or emerging markets. Assets in mixed-asset funds shrank by quarter s end as markets remained mixed amid healthy growth data and macro-level uncertainties. Aggressive styles were marginal gainers, while most other styles were net negative on the quarter. To wit, Money Market SGD (Inflows of S$982.5 million/ Outflows of S$1.14 billion), Equity Asia Pacific Ex Japan (+S$803.5 million/ -S$488.3 million), Bond Global (+S$609.4 million/ -S$411.3 million), Bond SGD (+S$354.7 million/ -S$272.6 million) and Equity Singapore (+S$309.2 million/ - S$148.6 million) all posted a high turnover of assets during the quarter. Page 3 of 16

5 Among the other asset classes, positive net flows among absolute return funds (+S$37 million) were offset by net outflows in commodities (-S$58 million) and protected (-S$5 million) funds and residual classes (-S$5.83 million). Table 2 Ten Top Fund Sector Inflows and Outflows by Lipper Global Classification for Q (SGD Mil) Inflows Lipper Global Classification 1 Money Market SGD Money Market SGD 1, Equity Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity Asia Pacific Ex Japan Bond Global Bond Global Bond SGD Bond SGD Equity Singapore Equity Emerging Mkts Global Equity Emerging Mkts Global Mixed Asset SGD Balanced Equity Global Equity Singapore Bond USD Equity Sector Natural Resource Equity China Equity China Equity Greater China Equity Global Note: Lipper Global Classifications are created only when there are a minimum of ten representative products with a similar investment mandate. Fund groupings not meeting this requirement will be categorised in an equivalent category where appropriate or placed in Other. Equity Funds Summary Fund Flow Outflows Lipper Global Classification Fund Flow Global equities continued to face both positive and negative headwinds in the fourth quarter a weak November was bookended by rallies during October and December but managed to finish the quarter as well as the year on a rather strong note; the MSCI World index rose 8.56% (in USD terms) on the quarter (shoring up returns for the year 2010, which were a healthy 9.55% (in USD terms)). As was the case during the previous quarter, global optimism during Q seemed to be running on economic cues that were mixed at best. In the US, fading double-dip concerns, yet another quarter of better-than-expected earnings results, and improvements in economic growth and consumer confidence data, all helped all the major US stock indices post handsome gains, both on the quarter (S&P500: %, NASDAQ: +12%, DJIA: +7.32%) and on the year (S&P500: %, NASDAQ: ). Early expectations over a second round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve (dubbed QE2 by the markets) also contributed to the quarter s gains, although sentiment was tempered in November by the tamer-than-expected announcement of a $600 billion Treasury purchase plan. Bullish sentiment in Europe too was dampened in November, as Eurozone sovereign debt concerns resurfaced in the wake of the EU-IMF bailout of Ireland. However, a host of positive cues QE2 in the US, the European Central Bank s unchanged policy rate stance and assurances of further lending, Page 4 of 16

6 stronger commodities and commodity-related stocks, exports-driven growth and rising business confidence in Germany, and more optimistic growth prospects than a quarter ago in other key markets such as the UK helped buoy European equities. This was evident from the performance of key European equity indices during the quarter: CAC 40 (+2.41%), FTSE 100 (+6.33%) and Xetra DAX (+11%), all posted moderate to solid gains on the quarter, with Xetra DAX (+16.06%) and FTSE 100 (+9%) finishing the year on a rather strong note. Table 3 Ten Top and Bottom Equity Fund Types by Net Flows for Q (in SGD Mil) Equity Sector Net Flows Equity Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity Global Equity Singapore Equity China Equity Emerging Mkts Global Equity Greater China Equity Indonesia Equity Sector Gold&Prec Metals Equity Nth America Sm&Mid Cap Equity Sector Natural Resource Equity Sector Real Est As Pac Equity MENA Equity Australia Equity Sector Information Tech Equity Japan Equity India Equity Sector Banks&Financial Equity Emerging Mkts Asia Equity Thailand Equity Europe Among emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere, regional equities within export- and commodityheavy economies such as Russia (+17.42%), Korea (+9.51%) and Taiwan (+8.92%) fared well amid surging commodity prices; the Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodity index rose a whopping 13.03% during the quarter. By contrast, performance among other key Asian equities was more muted notably in China (+5.74%) and India (+2.19%) as policymakers kept up efforts to rein in inflation. This has also had the effect of putting downward pressure on risk appetites in the region, with Thailand (+5.89%), Indonesia (+5.78%), Malaysia (+3.79%), Hong Kong (+3.03%) and the Philippines (+2.47%), underperforming relative to the previous quarter. Page 5 of 16

7 Singapore equities too fell in this category during the fourth quarter, rising a modest 2.98% on the quarter (against 9.24% during the previous quarter), and finishing the year 2010 at %. The quarter s gains came amid continued strength in the Singapore dollar, as the city-state ended 2010 as one of the world s fastest growing economies (Singapore s GDP grew 12.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, and it grew 14.7% over the course of 2010). While some slowdown is to be expected after record GDP growth in 2010 (the government expects 2011 economic growth to be in the region of 4-6%), macroeconomic conditions in the region should remain strong in the months ahead. Table 4 Estimated Equity Fund Flows by Broad Geographical Classifications, Q (in SGD Mil) Classification Net Flows Asia-Pacific Europe Global Latin America North America Middle East/Other Sector Total The regional tally above summarises the points discussed earlier in this section. Notably, net flows have been strongly positive among Asian and global allocations, marginally positive among allocations to the Americas, and marginally negative among allocations to Europe and the Middle East. This is also reflected in a review of the equity classifications with highest net inflows and outflows (Table 3 above); net flows into emerging Asia have generally been positive (net inflows of S$315.2 million for Equity Asia Pacific Ex Japan funds, for instance), although a few regional markets with falling risk appetites detracted from the quarter s overall asset gains (as evidenced by net outflows for Equity Thailand: -S$37.7 million, Equity Emerging Markets Asia: -S$28.8 million, and Equity India: -S$19.1 million). On the whole, equity funds grew in assets by S$858.8 million during the course of Q Page 6 of 16

8 Bond and Money Market Funds Summary In an effort to combat the global economic recession that began in 2008, and in light of the uneven recovery in the US and persistent fiscal concerns in the Eurozone, policymakers in the developed world had, in addition to putting in place a spate of quantitative easing measures, adopted very accommodative interest-rate regimes and kept rates at near-zero levels for protracted periods of time. The latest among these measures is what has been dubbed by the markets as QE2, as part of which the Federal Reserve announced in early November the purchase of $600 billion worth of US Treasury securities. Sentiment among riskier asset classes brightened as a result, and many sectors of the bond market (save high-yield bonds) lost ground during the fourth quarter; the Citigroup World Government Bond index fell 1.76% (in USD terms) on the quarter, while the Citigroup High Yield Market index gained 3.28% (in USD terms) during the same period. Most benchmark yields rose on the quarter, while the money markets remained flat owing to historically low policy rates, resulting in steeper yield curves across the board: 2- and 10-year US Treasury yields ended the quarter at 0.61% and 3.30% respectively (up 18 and 79 bps from a quarter ago, and at or above end-june-2010 levels); Similarly, 5- and 10-year Eurozone benchmark yields rose to 1.83% and 2.95% respectively at quarter s end (up 38 and 69 bps from their end-september levels). Figure 2 Shifts in Benchmark Yield Curves, between September 30, 2010 and December 31, 2010 (a) United States As at 31-Dec-2010 Yield As at 30-Sep M 6M 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y The Singapore yield curve too steepened during the fourth quarter: 1-year yields rose 11 bps to 0.45%, 5-year yields rose 51 bps to 1.39% and 10-year yields rose 68 bps to 2.71%). Page 7 of 16

9 (b) Singapore Yield As at 31-Dec As at 30-Sep M 2Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 15Y 20Y Source: Thomson Reuters 0 That said, market conditions during the fourth quarter of 2010 continued to encourage diversification and a modicum of risk aversion. Consequently, inflows into bond funds remained strong through the quarter, and in aggregate, assets in bond funds grew by a robust S$ million during third quarter Money market funds, on the other hand, saw their total net assets decline by S$176.2 million during the same period, given the preference for higher yielding asset classes during the quarter. The fixed income products with significant positive net inflows included pan-global (Bond Global: +S$198.1 million), SGD/USD-denominated (Bond USD: +S$215 million, Bond SGD: +S$82.1 million) as well as higher yielding offerings in emerging markets, such as Bond CNY (+S$104.2 million), Bond Emerging Markets Global (+S$48.7 million), Bond Global High Yield (+S$41 million) and Bond Asia Pacific (S$33.8 million). Total assets in SGD-denominated money market funds shrank by S$161.1 million, while other foreign-currency money market offerings remained flat to negative on the quarter: Money Market USD (-S$13 million), Money Market Global (-S$1.27 million), Money Market AUD (-S$0.9 million). Table 5 Net Flows Into Bond and Money Market Funds for Q (in SGD Mil) Bond Funds Net Flows Money Market Funds Net Flows Bond USD Money Market EUR 0.00 Bond Global Money Market AUD Bond CNY Money Market Global Bond SGD Money Market USD Bond Emerging Markets Global Money Market SGD Bond Global High Yield Bond Asia Pacific Bond USD High Yield Bond USD Short Term Page 8 of 16

10 Bond Global Inflation Linked 4.37 Bond Convertibles Global 0.10 Bond USD Corporates 0.02 Bond EuroZone Bond Global Corporates Bond GBP Bond Other Inflation Linked Bond Europe Bond Europe High Yield Bond Other Hedged Bond EUR Total Bond Funds Total Money Market Funds Mixed-Asset and Other Funds Summary Total assets in asset-allocation products, including mixed-asset funds and target maturity funds, fell by S$66.1 million during the fourth quarter of This represents the net effect of a 26% rise in gross inflows (to S$200 million) alongside a 12% rise in gross outflows (to S$266.1 million), as markets remained mixed amid strong growth data and macro-level uncertainties. Gross inflows into mixed-asset funds were certainly on the higher side of the range seen in recent quarters (near or above S$200 million during four of the previous six quarters), while total redemptions were the highest they have been in over six quarters. Balanced funds continued to be the primary detractor from asset growth in mixed asset portfolios (with net outflows of S$58.7 million) during Q4 2010, while the top gainers by assets were aggressive styles (net inflows of S$10.9 million). Assets employing other styles were relatively flat on the quarter. This is again indicative of a rising appetite for risk even among diversified portfolios. Among the residual asset classes too, as was the case in Q3 2010, assets in commodity offerings shrank the most (-S$58 million), although this is set to change given the rallying commodity prices we have seen in the concluding months of On the flip side, absolute return funds continued to attract the highest net inflows (+S$37 million) among residual classes. In aggregate, flows into the group were net negative, however, shrinking overall assets in Singapore-registered unit trusts by S$31.9 million at the end of fourth quarter Table 6 Net Flows of Mixed-Asset and Other Funds for Q (SGD Mil) Funds Net Flows Aggressive Balanced Flexible Conservative Target Maturity Total Mixed Assets Absolute Return Page 9 of 16

11 Commodities Guaranteed Hedge/Multi Strategies Protected Total Other Assets NB: Since Absolute Return products may include bonds, mixed assets, as well as money market instruments in their investment strategy, they are classified according to their predominant asset allocation. The small proportion that is undefined is placed under Unclassified. Outlook The dynamic among regional markets continued to evolve in the fourth quarter of 2010 prospects for recovery and growth turned more optimistic in the US, and core Eurozone nations, while concerns over sovereign debt and contagion resurfaced in peripheral Eurozone countries; among the emerging markets, one group rode the wave of rallying commodity prices while another, concentrated in Asia, battled inflationary pressures amid strong growth. The first two months of the new year have seen rising geo-political tensions in several countries in the Middle East, triggering a further spike in energy prices. Furthermore, market movements during the same period suggest a slight slowing down in the pace of growth even within Asia, and not merely because of efforts by central banks within the region to keep inflationary pressures in check (for instance, Singapore s economy grew 14.7% in 2010 but the government s growth expectations for the year ahead are in the region of 4-6%. Meanwhile, equity markets in Singapore, Thailand, Korea, Taiwan and India all shed close to or upwards of 5% for the first two months of 2011). While some slowdown and volatility is to be expected after record GDP growth in Asia in 2010, macroeconomic conditions in the region should hold up in the months ahead. However, given unclear macroeconomic guidance globally, we continue to believe in selective allocations to high-quality assets based on underlying fundamentals. Rajeev Baddepudi rajeev.baddepudi@thomsonreuters.com -END- Thomson Reuters All Rights Reserved. Lipper FundFlows are for informational purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security of any entity in any jurisdiction. No guarantee is made that the information in this report is accurate or complete and no warranties are made with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. In addition, Lipper, a Thomson Reuters company, will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from information obtained from Lipper or any of its affiliates. Appendix A Data Sources Page 10 of 16

12 Data and analyses are based on information provided by the following IMAS members: 1 Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited 2 PineBridge Investments Singapore Limited 3 Allianz Global Investors Singapore Limited 4 AllianceBernstein (Singapore) Ltd. 5 APS Asset Management Pte Ltd 6 DBS Asset Management Ltd 7 Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited 8 FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Limited 9 First State Investments (Singapore) 10 Henderson Global Investors (S) Ltd 11 ING Investment Management Asia Pacific (Singapore) Ltd 12 Legg Mason Asset Management (Asia) Pte Ltd 13 Lion Global Investors Ltd 14 Navigator Investment Services Limited 15 Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd 16 Prudential Asset Management (Singapore) Limited 17 Schroder Investment Management (S) Ltd 18 SG Asset Management (S) Limited 19 Singapore Unit Trusts Ltd 20 Singapore Consortium Investment Management Ltd 21 Templeton Asset Management Ltd 22 UOB Asset Management Ltd 23 UBS Global Asset Management (Singapore) Ltd 24 JPMorgan Asset Management (Singapore) Limited Page 11 of 16

13 Appendix B Net Fund Flows by Lipper Global Classification for Q (SGD 000) Lipper Global Classification CPF Net Flow Non-CPF Net Flow Absolute Return EUR High Absolute Return GBP High Absolute Return Other Absolute Return USD High Absolute Return USD Medium Alternative Equity Mkt Neutral Bond Asia Pacific Bond CNY Bond Convertibles Global Bond Emerging Markets Global Bond EUR Bond EUR Corporates Bond EUR High Yield Bond EUR Inflation Linked Bond EUR Short Term Bond Europe Bond Europe High Yield Bond EuroZone Bond GBP Bond GBP Corporates Bond Global Bond Global Corporates Bond Global High Yield Bond Global Inflation Linked Bond Global Short Term Bond Global USD Hedged Bond Other Hedged Bond Other Inflation Linked Bond SGD Bond USD Bond USD Corporates Bond USD High Yield Bond USD Short Term Commodities Equity Active Extension Global Page 12 of 16

14 Lipper Global Classification CPF Net Flow Non-CPF Net Flow Equity ASEAN Equity Asia Pacific Equity Asia Pacific Ex Japan Equity Asia Pacific Sm&Mid Cap Equity Australasia Equity Australia Equity Brazil Equity China Equity Emerging Mkts Asia Equity Emerging Mkts Europe Equity Emerging Mkts Global Equity Emerging Mkts Latin Am Equity Emerging Mkts Other Equity Europe Equity Europe ex UK Equity Europe Sm&Mid Cap Equity EuroZone Equity France Equity Germany Equity Global Equity Global Income Equity Global Sm&Mid Cap Equity Greater China Equity Hong Kong Equity Iberia Equity India Equity Indonesia Equity Italy Equity Japan Equity Japan Sm&Mid Cap Equity Korea Equity Malaysia Equity Malaysia/Singapore Equity MENA Equity Nordic Equity North America Equity Nth America Sm&Mid Cap Page 13 of 16

15 Lipper Global Classification CPF Net Flow Non-CPF Net Flow Equity Philippines Equity Russia Equity Sector Banks&Financial Equity Sector Basic Industries Equity Sector Biotechnology Equity Sector Cyc Cons Gds&Svc Equity Sector General Industry Equity Sector Gold&Prec Metals Equity Sector Information Tech Equity Sector Natural Resource Equity Sector Pharma&Health Equity Sector Real Est As Pac Equity Sector Real Est Europe Equity Sector Real Est Global Equity Sector Real Est Other Equity Sector Tech Media&Tele Equity Sector Telecom Srvcs Equity Sector Utilities Equity Singapore Equity Switzerland Equity Taiwan Equity Thailand Equity UK Equity Vietnam Guaranteed Hedge/Multi Strategies-FoHF Mixed Asset EUR Agg - Global Mixed Asset EUR Bal - Europe Mixed Asset EUR Bal - EuroZone Mixed Asset EUR Bal - Global Mixed Asset Other Flexible Mixed Asset SGD Aggressive Mixed Asset SGD Balanced Mixed Asset SGD Conservative Mixed Asset USD Aggressive Mixed Asset USD Bal - Global Mixed Asset USD Bal - N Am Page 14 of 16

16 Mixed Asset USD Conservative Mixed Asset USD Flex - Global Money Market AUD Money Market EUR Money Market Global Money Market SGD Money Market USD Protected Target Maturity MA USD Target Maturity MA USD Target Maturity Other TOTAL -67, ,414, Page 15 of 16

17 Appendix C CPF Fund Flows by Lipper Global Classification for Q (SGD 000) Rank Lipper Global Classification CPF Inflows 1 Equity Asia Pacific Ex Japan 28, Equity Emerging Mkts Global 20, Mixed Asset SGD Balanced 15, Equity Singapore 10, Equity Greater China 6, Equity China 5, Equity Sector Natural Resource 4, Equity North America 3, Equity Emerging Mkts Asia 2, Target Maturity Other 2, Rank Lipper Global Classification CPF Outflows 1 Equity Asia Pacific Ex Japan 43, Mixed Asset SGD Balanced 33, Equity Singapore 20, Equity Greater China 9, Equity Sector Natural Resource 7, Equity China 6, Equity Global 6, Equity Emerging Mkts Global 6, Target Maturity Other 5, Equity Emerging Mkts Asia 4, Page 16 of 16