Timer Digest. Sample Issue. Please note: This is an actual issue of Timer Digest with the same format of future issues.

Transcription

1 ISSUE 505 Sample Issue Please note: This is an actual issue of with the same format of future issues. For this sample issue only, we have replaced the advisor s names on pages 1, 2 and 4 with Advisor 1, Advisor 2 etc. Current issues are only available to subscribers. To subscribe, please click on the Subscribe/Renew button. Thank you, Market Timing with the T.D.Consensus T.D.Consensus Performanace vs S&P 500 Index: T.D.Consensus 5 Years + 51% 8 Years + 83% 10 Years % S&P 500 Index 5 Years - 8% 8 Years - 3% 10 Years - 24% Model Portfolio Reviews Copyright 2010,. All Rights Reserved.

2 2 TOP TEN TIMERS S&P: DJIA: 10, ONE YEAR - FROM: 01/08/2009 TO: 01/08/2010 CURRENT SINCE INDEX 1 Advisor. 1 Bull 03/12/ Advisor 2 Bull 12/17/ Advisor 3 Bull 03/20/ Advisor 4 Neutral 01/07/ Advisor 5 Bull 11/11/ Advisor 6 Bull 11/16/ Advisor 7 Bull 02/05/ Advisor 8 Bear 11/11/ Advisor 9 Bull 03/17/ Advisor 10 Bull 09/02/ T.D.CONSENSUS Bull 07/22/ S&P Months From: 07/08/09 To: 01/08/2010 Advisor 10 Bull 09/02/ Advisor 11 Bull 01/06/ Advisor 1 Bull 03/12/ *Advisor 9 Bull 03/17/ *Advisor 3 Bull 03/20/ *Advisor 13 Bull 05/13/ *Advisor 15 Bull 05/01/ *Advisor 7 Bull 02/05/ *Advisor 14 Bull 02/22/ *Advisor 17 Bull 03/19/ T.D.CONSENSUS Bull 07/22/ S&P * Tied with others who are not listed due to limited space. NOTE: A regular feature of TIMER DIGEST is a report of the current opinion of various forecasters and an analysis of how accurate their forecasts have been over the most recent 52-week period(104 weeks for Long Term Timers). In every instance, we have tried to be as fair as possible in the comparisons, although reliability of the information given cannot be guaranteed. Because of mail delays, it is possible that the current opinion may have changed before press time. While all the services rated provide buy and sell signals, some do not recommend short selling. However, for purposes of illustration only, the Performance Index takes into account the gain and loss on sell signals as well as buy signals. Some of these forecasts are designed to identify short term market moves while others are long term in nature. The Index measures the efficiency of the services over a 52- week period in the same manner for all. The Long Term Timers are measured over 104 weeks using their Long Term models. 3 Months From: 10/08/09 to: 01/08/2010 Advisor 11 Bull 01/06/ Advisor 12 Neutral 11/11/ *Advisor 1 Bull 03/12/ *Advisor 10 Bull 09/02/ *Advisor 7 Bull 02/05/ *Advisor 14 Bull 02/22/ *Advisor 15 Bull 05/01/ *Advisor 9 Bull 03/17/ *Advisor 16 Bull 09/25/ *Advisor 18 Bull 07/20/ T.D.CONSENSUS Bull 07/22/ S&P * Tied with others who are not listed due to limited space. The Performance Index is calculated by considering each advisor and the S&P 500 Index to be equal to at the beginning of the period. Timing signals assume either long or short positions in the S&P 500. This study is hypothetical and is for the purpose of comparison only.. Past results are not an indication of future results. For more information call orwrite: TIMER DIGEST, P.O. Box 1688, Greenwich, CT (203)

3 Summary and Outlook 3 The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened the year with a gain of nearly 156 points; then drifted modestly higher for several days. Recent global, political, and economic developments could have created a headwind of uncertainty. But, the market has held up well in keeping with the current period of favorable seasonality. Nevertheless, investors remain confronted with aftermath of the Christmas day terror threat, retirement decisions from several prominent politicians, the health care legislation debate, and mixed reports on the economy. Fundamentally, U.S. corporations are, on the surface, in better shape to start 2010; and showing more fiscal responsibility than the Government. This may bode well for leadership from the private sector in an economic recovery. Technically, however, the stock market gains since March 2009 have created a vulnerable condition, evidenced by low volume and some negative divergences. Sentiment has also deteriorated with optimism increasing to excessive levels since October. If the Federal Reserve supplies adequate liquidity in the year ahead, and banks increase their willingness to lend, the economy may begin to catch up with the stock market. This could support moderately positive returns for the year. However, investors may also have to contend with the volatility that has historically been associated with mid-term election years. Currently, the Top Ten Consensus is Bullish with 8 Bulls, 1 Bear, and 1 Neutral. Advisor 1 is on a March 12, Buy signal. However, he expects additional gains to be more difficult in the period ahead; and recommends taking partial profits ahead of his forecasted 4-month cycle top either this month or in February. Advisor 2 is on a December 17, Buy signal. He believes that better-thanexpected earnings announcements will produce increased earnings estimates and an extension of the market s rally. Advisor 3 is on a March 20, Buy signal. He said the underpinnings of the broad market remain weak; but also ranks small cap stocks, technology, utility, transportation, and real estate sectors as attractive. Advisor 4 is on a January 7, Neutral signal. He has turned cautious in response to deteriorating technical and sentiment indicators that may foreshadow a period of consolidation. Advisor 5 is on a November 11, Buy signal. He allows for the possibility of a correction in the near term; but advises holding his recommended stocks in line with the rising longer-term trend. Advisor 6 is on a November 16, Buy signal. However, he has retained a cautious outlook toward the market over the past month in response to concerns about the resolution of a consolidation pattern among his indicators. Advisor 7 is on a February 5, Buy signal. He said some indicators now suggest the possibility of a short-term correction; but the larger trend should keep rising into April, May, or June. Advisor 8 is on November 11, Sell signal. He concluded that the wave structure of the advance from March 2009 lows is almost complete; but does allow for residual gains toward DOW 11,300. Advisor 9 is on a March 17, Buy signal. He said the current chart formation still points to the risk of a mediumterm correction and increased volatility; but his longer-term outlook remains positive. Advisor 10 is on a September 2, Buy signal. However, he has forecast a possible market low in the February - March timeframe; and is concerned about recent negative technical divergences. The comments which follow are provided in response to subscriber requests that previous Timers of the Year be monitored on a continuing basis, despite their absence from the current rankings. Advisor 19 is Bearish. He said sentiment is excessively bullish; and the NASDAQ Composite is likely to meet resistance in this are from two lows just preceding the breakdown last year. Advisor 20 is Neutral. He expects the market to continue in a labored advance during January and February. Advisor 21 are Bearish. They said by many of the metrics they look at to judge the health of an advance, stocks are stretched on the upside. The potential for a near-term decline is high. Advisor 22 of VRTrader-.com is Bullish. He suggested that the response of major indices to economic and political news remains constructive and supports the current uptrend. Advisor 23 is Bearish. He said his trend model has been long since July, but he has not given a buy signal. Danger ahead. Please check the Hotline for the latest updates. The Hotline is updated every Wednesday and Saturday by 7:00 p.m. E.T., with special updates as necessary. Next Issue to be posted January 25, 2010

4 4 Top Five Bond Timers Current Since Index Advisor 10 Bull 12/31/ *Advisor 21 Bear 09/29/ *Advisor 14 Bear 01/08/ *Advisor 24 Bear 02/29/ *Advisor 25 Bear 03/22/ T.D.CONSENSUS Bear 12/04/ T-BOND INDEX From: 01/08/09 To: 01/08/2010 Top Five Gold Timers Advisor 26 Bull 04/09/ Advisor 27 Bear 12/02/ *Advisor 6 Bull 12/15/ *Advisor 24 Bull 07/27/ *Advisor 25 Bull 02/11/ T.D.CONSENSUS Bull 07/31/ CMX GOLD INDEX * Tied with others who are not listed due to limited space. From: 01/08/09 To: 01/08/2010 Advisor 28 Bull 04/14/ Advisor 5 Bull 04/08/ Advisor 21 Bear 08/28/ Advisor 7 Bull 10/21/ Advisor 29 Bull 05/29/ Advisor 9 Bull 08/11/ Advisor 6 Bull 01/05/ Advisor 25 Bear 04/15/ Advisor 30 Bear 09/01/ Advisor 31 Bear 09/14/ T.D.CONSENSUS Bull 11/06/ S&P From: 01/08/08 To: 01/08/2010 T-BOND INDEX The bond market, basis the March 2010 T-Bond future, declined below moderately important support near 116 in December 2009; and moved sideways. Fundamentally, the competition for credit will continue to be a source of upward pressure on interest rates. Economic recovery could also make inflation a complicating factor. Technically, this contract may have room for an oversold rebound; within a declining intermediate term trend. Support for the March future is 115, followed by /32, and 110. Resistance is now 116, /32, and /32. The Consensus is currently Bearish. Advisor 10 is Bullish. He said bond prices recently hit the bottom of a trading range; and should recover over the next several months. Advisor 21are Bearish. They forecast that 30-year T- Bond yields will soon rise above the June 2009 highs of 4.84%. Advisor 22 is Bearish. Bonds recently exceeded his fair market value forecast; and should decline in the period ahead. COMEX GOLD Gold. basis the April 2010 future, declined sharply from its early December 2009 high above $1225; and attempted to stabilize in recent weeks. A yearend rally by the U.S. Dollar became one source of downward pressure on Gold. Fundamental forces continue to favor rising Gold prices, longer term. Technically, this market was overdue for a sharp correction; and may have further downside testing in the period ahead. Support for the April contract is between $1075 and $1100, then $ $1050, and $990 - $1020. Resistance may be expected near $1160, then $1180, and $ $1225. The Consensus is currently Bullish. Advisor 26 is Bullish. He forecasts rising gold prices this month, and possibly into February with seasonal support. Advisor 27 is Bearish. He expects gold to consolidate further as it corrects the technical excesses from December Advisor 6 is Bullish. He remains positioned with the longterm trend out of respect for the growing risk of turbulence in paper currency markets. S&P 500 INDEX Top Ten Long Term Timers The market began 2010 on a positive note. Corporate America has regained some of its financial health, though not without job losses. A favorable consequence of such cost-cutting may be the private sector s better position to support economic recovery and re-employment; particularly if banks increase lending. Currently, The Long Term Consensus is Bullish. Advisor 28 is Bullish. He noted the recent recovery high by the NYSE Advance/Decline Line as a sign that the longer -term outlook may remain positive for some time to come. Advisor 5 is Bullish. He remains committed to his recommended stocks in anticipation of further long-term gains, while acknowledging short-term risk of a correction. Advisor 21 is Bearish. They are concerned about weak volume patterns and sentiment readings in combination with a wave structure that indicates a rally near its completion.

5 5 The behavior of the stock market in 2009 was similar in many ways to the recovery year Each year followed a sharp First Quarter decline with a March low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average began 2009 with a rally of 258 points, then generally declined from January (DJIA 9034) until early March (DJIA 6547). From there, the Dow staged an impressive rally through yearend. Similarities with 2003 did not extend far beyond price behavior of the major indices however. Fundamental and economic similarities between the 2 years are more difficult to find. In both periods, the Federal Reserve pursued an accommodative monetary policy in response to unfavorable economic conditions. However, in 2003, bank lending practices were supportive of business and consumer borrowing needs; and the economy responded. On the other hand, in 2009, banks have been reluctant to lend even to good-quality borrowers. In 2003, unemployment peaked only modestly above levels of the 2002 recession year; whereas, unemployment continued to rise alarmingly in Economic conditions stabilized or improved in 2003 as the stock market rose to discount the recovery. In 2009, economic conditions have been uneven at best. So, the Main Street economy will have to gather some positive momentum soon, in order to justify an otherwise outsized recovery in Wall Street and the stock market. As a mid-term election year, 2010 will be no less challenging as the market contends with uncertainties about economic recovery, monetary, fiscal, and social policies, as well as ongoing global tensions. Discipline and the following 3 components of successful investing will likely regain their importance in 2010: Timing (to determine when to be in the market and when to be out or hedged), and Selection (stocks, mutual funds, bonds etc.), and Allocation (overweighting / underweighting etc). Each of these are key elements of the Programs. For the benefit of newer subscribers, the 5 & 10 Consensus Signals are used for market timing in the Model Portfolio and the Fidelity Select Program. The Gold Consensus Signals are used for timing the Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio. The Dow Jones 30 Strategy has a built in timing mechanism and the Diversified Select Portfolio was designed to be fully invested most of the time. The CASPER program is used to select stocks, mutual funds, bonds etc. for our four model portfolios. Model Portfolio Reports The following is a brief review of the programs for The Dow Jones 30 Strategy The goal of the program is to be invested in the 5 stocks with the highest CASPER index of the 30 that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. By a continuous process of upgrading, we hope to remain in the most dynamic stocks which usually outperform the Index as a whole. There were 10 transactions and 1 carryover position (UTX) for this strategy in Bank of America and General Electric were most damaging to performance. Holdings that played to the theme of fundamental and technical attractiveness in a weak economic environment were only moderately profitable (Coca-Cola, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, and Kraft Foods). In 2010, a combination of positive fundamental and technical factors may return as the basis for better performing stocks from the Dow Industrials. Dow Jones 30 Strategy Performance: %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, % and % (not including dividends, interest income or commission expense). The Model Portfolio The goal of the program is to be invested in 10 stocks selected by our proprietary CASPER program, with good relative strength that also appear to be fundamentally undervalued. We upgrade the portfolio periodically using a disciplined approach to remove laggards. By a continuous process of upgrading, we hope to remain in the most dynamic stocks which usually outperform the market as a whole. There were transactions in 20 stocks and ETFs for the Model Portfolio during 2009, of which 12 were profitable (including open positions at yearend). The portfolio composition was dominated by securities that reflected basic fundamental quality (stocks) and a sector or directional theme (ETFs). In general, the holdings were focused on companies or ETFs that should perform well at the beginning of a sustainable economic recovery. Model Portfolio Performance: %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, , %, 1996, %, % (not including dividends, interest income or commission expense). The Diversified Select Portfolio The goal of the program is to invest in the four Top Performing Select Portfolios as measured by our proprietary CASPER program. Unless instructed otherwise, each fund will be held until one or more closes below CASPER rank number seven as measured each week. Each fund ranked below number seven will be sold and the proceeds reinvested in the highest ranked fund not already owned. This portfolio was designed to be fully invested at all times. However, due to periods of high market risk the portfolio was partially invested in a money market fund for a number of weeks of the year. There were transactions in 15 funds and 1 ETF for this program in 2009, of which 10 were profitable (including open positions at yearend). Early in the year, a focus on the undervalued health-related funds (Medical Equip, Biotech, and Health Care) proved unrewarding. The program had greater success with the commodity and factor input funds (Gold, Natural Resources, and Materials); and more modest gains from Telecommunications, Developing Communications, and Technology (the latter two still held at December 31). Diversified Select Portfolio Performance: %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, 1996, %, %. (not including dividends, interest income or commission expense). The ETF Program The goal of this program is to identify style, sector, or directional trends, when present; and purchase ETFs that should benefit. The portfolio contains 4 ETFs and 1 cash reserve position at full investment. Fewer ETFs and more cash may be held as conditions warrant. In 2009, there were 12 transactions, of which 9 were profitable. The analytical method favored commodity and factor input-related ETFs that would benefit from economic recovery. The ETF Performance: %. (not including dividends, interest income or commission expense).

6 6 C.A.S.P.E.R. Index of Previously Recommended Stocks RECOMMENDED CURR. CASP. STOCK DATE PRICE PRICE INDEX Abb Ltd 01/04/ Abbott Laboratories 04/21/ Acuity Brands 08/22/ Advanced Energy Ind In 08/01/ Air Products & Chemica 01/04/ Alliance Resource Part 03/30/ American States Water 05/09/ Amgen Inc 10/03/ Argon St Inc 09/19/ Automatic Data Process 10/05/ Ball Corp 03/28/ Bank Of America Corp 09/19/ Bank Of New York Co In 05/30/ a Becton Dickinson & Co 08/03/ Bp Plc 02/16/ Burlington Nth Santa F 08/27/ C.R. Bard Inc 01/13/ Calgon Carbon Corp 01/08/ Campbell Soup Co 10/27/ Cardinal Health Inc 08/01/ Charles River Labs Int 12/04/ Charles Schwab Corp 03/07/ Chevron Corp 08/22/ Church & Dwight Co Inc 03/30/ Cimarex Energy Inc 03/30/ Cisco Systems Inc 12/31/ a Clarcor Inc 10/26/ CNX Gas Corp 03/09/ Coca-Cola Co 10/03/ Community Health Syste 03/07/ Conagra Foods 12/31/ ConocoPhillips 08/25/ Costco Wholesale Corp 06/01/ Crane Co 03/28/ Cvs Caremark Corp 02/15/ Danaher Corp 01/04/ Devon Energy Corp 10/16/ Dionex Corp 05/30/ Dominion Resources Inc 08/22/ Dover Corp 08/04/ a Dpl Inc 06/02/ Dresser-Rand Group Inc 08/01/ Dst Systems Inc 09/14/ Du Pont de Nemours & C 05/11/ Duke Energy Corp 12/31/ Eastman Chemical Co 08/25/ Eaton Vance Corp 11/16/ Ebay Inc 07/13/ Echostar Communication 09/19/ Ecolab Inc 04/18/ El Paso Corp 09/14/ Emerson Electric Co 10/26/ Ensco International In 01/09/ Equinix Inc 08/22/ Extra Space Storage In 06/24/ Exxon Mobil Corporatio 10/06/ Fastenal Company 01/12/ Fedex Corp 10/05/ Flir Systems Inc 06/02/ Fluor Corp (New) 08/22/ Fresh Del Monte Produc 01/09/ Gen Probe Inc 08/01/ General Dynamics Corp 08/21/ a General Electric Co 04/20/ Glaxosmithkline Plc Ad 05/09/ Goldman Sachs Group In 03/31/ Home Depot Inc 08/20/ Intel Corp 11/13/ Internat Shipholding C 01/09/ Johnson & Johnson 08/25/ Johnson Controls Inc 06/22/ RECOMMENDED CURR. CASP. STOCK DATE PRICE PRICE INDEX JPMorgan Chase & Co 11/01/ Kaman Corp 06/20/ Kimco Realty Corp 08/01/ Kraft Foods Inc 03/07/ Laboratory Cp Am Hldgs 01/11/ Layne Christensen Co 03/07/ Lazard Ltd 01/09/ Lincoln Electric Hldgs 04/20/ Lockheed Martin Corp 08/01/ Mckesson Corp 01/11/ Medco Health Solutions 10/06/ Medtronic Inc 08/03/ Metlife Inc 11/16/ Microsoft Corp 12/31/ a Molex Inc 08/01/ Monsanto Co 02/15/ Nacco Industries Inc A 05/30/ National Fuel Gas Co 10/27/ Nike Inc Cl B 02/17/ Nrg Energy Inc 09/19/ Omnicom Group Inc 07/11/ a Packaging Corp Of Amer 10/03/ Parker Hannifin Corp 08/04/ Patterson Companies In 06/20/ Pentair Inc 08/03/ Pepco Holdings Inc 06/22/ Petrohawk Energy Corp 03/30/ Pfizer Inc 10/03/ PowerShares DB Agricul 07/12/ Praxair Inc 01/11/ Precision Castparts Co 03/08/ Price T Rowe Group Inc 10/25/ a ProShares Short S&P500 01/11/ Qualcomm Inc 03/28/ Raytheon Co 02/15/ Roper Industries Inc 05/11/ Ross Stores Inc 10/26/ Saint Jude Medical Inc 01/12/ Scana Corp 04/18/ Sempra Energy 08/03/ Sigma-Aldrich Corp 01/14/ Smithfield Foods Inc 04/18/ SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Se 05/13/ SPDRs Select Sector En 10/09/ SPDRs Select Sector Te 11/20/ Standex Internat Corp 05/09/ State Street Corp 02/14/ a Strayer Education Inc 10/27/ The Directv Grp Inc 02/17/ The Hershey Co 09/19/ Tractor Supply Co 05/09/ Trinity Industries Inc 08/01/ Union Pacific Corp 02/15/ United Parcel Service 02/16/ United Technologies Co 03/27/ a UnitedHealth Group Inc 05/30/ US Bancorp 01/04/ US Steel Corp 09/15/ Vanguard Information T 08/13/ Varian Medical Systems 02/15/ Verizon Communications 06/23/ Wal-Mart Stores Inc 07/11/ a Wellpoint Inc 10/03/ Wisconsin Energy Corp 04/18/ THE FOLLOWING STOCKS WERE DELETED THIS WEEK: Allegheny Energy Inc 03/22/ Powell Industries Inc 07/13/ Quanta Services Inc 03/28/ Safeway Inc 02/15/ Steris Corp 04/21/ (a = adjusted for split)

7 Fidelity Select Series Programs Casper Rank Rank Price Symbol Fund Name FSPTX Fidelity Sel Technolog FSAIX Fidelity Sel Air Trans FSESX Fidelity Sel Energy Se FSDCX Fidelity Sel Comm Equi FSDPX Fidelity Sel Materials FDFAX Fidelity Sel Cons Stap FSENX Fidelity Sel Energy FSAVX Fidelity Sel Automotiv FSNGX Fidelity Sel Natural G FSELX Fidelity Sel Electroni FNARX Fidelity Sel Natural R FDCPX Fidelity Sel Computers FSHCX Fidelity Sel Medical D FBMPX Fidelity Sel Multimedi FSCGX Fidelity Sel Indust Eq FCYIX Fidelity Sel Industria FSRFX Fidelity Sel Transport FSCSX Fidelity Sel Software FBSOX Fidelity Sel IT Servic FSCHX Fidelity Sel Chemicals The ETF program The following changes have been made for the ETF Program in the past week: At the opening on January 4, the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) was sold at $ and proceeds invested in a money market fund. Also, at the opening on January 7, the Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) was sold at $65.09 with proceeds invested in a money market fund. Current holdings include: Powershares Agriculture ETF (DBA) U.S. Natural Gas ETF (UNG) Money Market Fund balance: $64, Program Performance Y-T-D (January 8): +1.0% Dow Jones 30 Industrials January 8, DJIA: 10, There have been no changes for the Dow Jones 30 Portfolio since the last issue. The DJIA opened the year with a gain of nearly 156 points; then drifted modestly higher for several days. Recent global, political, and economic developments could have created a headwind of uncertainty. But, the market has held up well in keeping with the current period of favorable seasonality. Nevertheless, investors continue to be confronted with the aftermath of the Christmas day terror threat, retirement decisions by several prominent politicians, the health care legislation debate, and mixed reports on the economy. Casper Rank Rank Price Symbol Fund Name FSDAX Fidelity Sel Defense&A FSLBX Fidelity Sel Brokerage FSRBX Fidelity Sel Banking FSRPX Fidelity Sel Retailing FIDSX Fidelity Sel Fincl Svc FSAGX Fidelity Sel Gold FSCPX Fidelity Sel Cons Indu FSPHX Fidelity Sel Health Ca FWRLX Fidelity Sel Wireless FSHOX Fidelity Sel Constr&Ho FSLEX Fidelity Sel Environme FSTCX Fidelity Sel Telecomm SP-500 STAND & POORS FSMEX Fidelity Sel Med Equip FSPCX Fidelity Sel Insurance FPHAX Fidelity Sel Pharma FSVLX Fidelity Sel Home Fina DJ-30 DOW JONES INDUST FDLSX Fidelity Sel Leisure FSUTX Fidelity Sel Utilities The Diversified Select Program. Since the last issue, there have been no changes for the Diversified Select Program. Current holdings include: Consumer Staples, Communications Equipment, Technology, and Utilities. The Technology Fund is number 1, followed by: Air Transportation, Energy Service, Communications Equipment, Materials, Consumer Staples, and Energy. At the close on January 11, Select Utilities will be sold and proceeds invested in the Select Money Market Fund. Please check the Hotline for updates. Program Performance: %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, The current holdings and their costs are: Cisco Systems (22.00), Home Depot (27.03), Kraft Foods (27.00), United Technologies (38.60), and Wal-Mart Stores (49.18). Program performance: %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, % (not including dividends. interest income or commission expense). XCasper Current CasperCurrent Rank Rank Price Symbol Security Name Rank Rank Price Symbol Security Name AA Alcoa Inc JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co AXP American Express Co INTC Intel Corp CAT Caterpillar Inc DJ BA Boeing Co PFE Pfizer Inc *UTX United Technologies IBM International Business DIS Walt Disney Co The CVX Chevron Corp MSFT Microsoft Corp DD Du Pont *CSCO Cisco Systems Inc JNJ Johnson & Johnson MMM 3M Company PG Procter & Gamble Co MRK Merck & Co KO Coca-Cola Co *HD Home Depot Inc MCD Mcdonalds Corp HPQ Hewlett-Packard Co TRV The Travelers Companie *KFT Kraft Foods Inc T AT&T Inc BAC Bank Of America Corp VZ Verizon Communications *WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc XOM Exxon Mobil Corporatio GE General Electric Co * Included in Portfolio 7

8 January 8, 2010 S&P 500: Exch. Ticker Casper Recent Ind. CurrentCurrent Current 5-Yr EPS Prj EPS Prj 3-5 Yr Company Name Code Symbol Index Price Stop P-E Div Yield Growth Growth Apprec % CALGON CARBON CORP. NYSE CCC % N/A 21.5% 96 Chemicals ENSCO INT L NYSE ESV % 38.0% 14.0% 88 Energy Svc/Eqp FRESH DEL MONTE NYSE FDP % N/A 9.0% 75 Farm Products INT L SHIPHOLDING NYSE ISH % N/A 10.5% 78 Shipping DJIA: 10, LAZARD LTD NYSE LAZ % N/A 15.5% 93 Asset Mgmt. Purchase Recommendations Model Portfolio Report - January 8, 2010 The following changes were made for the Model Portfolio since the last issue. At the opening of January 4, United Technologies (UTX) was sold at $70.21 with proceeds invested in a money market fund. At the opening on January 7, one-third of the money market fund balance was used to Buy Ensco Int l (ESV) at $ Also on January 7, Becton-Dickinson (BDX) was Sold at $77.45 and the proceeds invested in a money market fund proceeds invested in a money market fund. At the opening on January 11, one-third of the current money market fund balance will be used to Buy Lazard Ltd. (LAZ). Also at the opening on January 11, ConAgra Foods (CAG) will be sold with the proceeds invested in a money market fund. The DJIA opened the year with a gain of nearly 156 points; then drifted modestly higher for several days. Recent global, political, and economic developments could have created a headwind of uncertainty. But, the market has held up well in keeping with the current period of favorable seasonality. Nevertheless, investors continue to be confronted with the aftermath of the Christmas day terror threat, retirement decisions by several prominent politicians, the health care legislation debate, and mixed reports on the economy. Model Portfolio Performance: %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, %, % (not including dividends, interest income or commissions). The Current Portfolio: Number PURCHASE Current Casper Shares Stock Price Date Price Index 1531 Ensco Int l /07/ Kraft Foods /08/ Powershres Agricult ETF /17/ SPDRs S&P 500 ETF /02/ Conagra Foods /09/ Duke Energy /03/ SPDRs S&P MidCap /21/ Current Cash Balance $176, is published every third week by Publishing: $225 ANNUALLY (18 issues), 2 Years, $395. Address your inquiries Timer to: Digest is published Publishing, every third P.O. week Box by Timer 1688, Greenwich, Digest Publishing: Connecticut $225 ANNUALLY (18 issues), 2 We advise Years, readers $395. Address that the your sources inquiries of information to: Timer are Digest believed Publishing, to be P.O. reliable Box 1688, and accurate, Greenwich, but Connecticut we do not imply that any charts, We advise formulas, readers that theories the or methods sources of can information guarantee are believed results. to Recommendations, and accurate, opinions but or we suggestions do not imply that are any given charts, with be reliable the formulas, understanding theories or that methods subscribers can guarantee acting results. Recommendations,opinionsorsuggestions on information assume all risks involved. The publisher, are given its with officers, the understanding employees that subscribers and clients of Strategic acting on Portfolio information Management assume all risks may involved. have positions The in publisher, the same its officers, securities employees that and are clients recommended Strategic or Portfolio held in Management the model may portfolios. have posi-for further of tions in information, the same securities phone: that are (203) recommended or held in the model portfolios. For further information, phone: (203)