Monthly Performance Review

Transcription

1 Performance Review ScotiaMcLeod October 6, 2014 S&P/TSX Composite S&P 500 October 6, 2014

2 S&P/TSX Performance Review September 2014 ScotiaMcLeod S&P/TSX Performance Review September 2014 Commodity Prices Place Downward Pressure on TSX The S&P/TSX Composite index dropped 4.3% in August on a price only basis. Of the 252 stocks in the index, 50 were higher and 202 were lower 2014 Index Returns (price Only) September YTD S&P/TSX Composite 4.3% +9.8% S&P/TSX 60 (Large Cap) 3.8% +10.3% S&P/TSX Completion (Mid) 5.3% +8.6% S&P/TSX Small cap 8.7% +4.7% The TSX 60 large cap index stocks outperformed the broader market in September, while the mid and small cap TSX indices underperformed, reversing relative trends seen in August. The S&P/TSX underperformed the S&P 500 in CAD terms in September, with the Canadian index down 4.3% while the S&P 500 index gained 1.6% in CAD terms. Weaker commodity prices, due in part to growth concerns in China and Europe, helped push the and sectors (representing over 35% of the total index) into negative territory, weighing on the index s performance. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. (VRX) had the largest positive influence on the index this past month. Biggest Point Contributors Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. Alimentation Couche Tard Inc. Canadian National Railway Co. Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc. Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. Loblaw Cos Ltd. Metro Inc. Fortis Inc. WestJet Airlines Ltd. Biggest Point Detractors Suncor Inc Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. Barrick Gold Corp. Goldcorp Inc. Magna International Inc. The Toronto Dominion Bank Cenovus Inc. Bank of Nova Scotia Yamana Gold Inc. Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. 15.0% 10.0% 10.3% September 2014 S&P TSX Composite Index Performance by Sector (Price only) 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Staples 3.2% 1.1% Information Technology 0.5% 0.9% Financial 2.5% Telecom 3.2% S&P/TSX Discretionary 4.3% 4.1% 8.0% 15.0% Source: Bloomberg 11.5%

3 S&P/TSX Performance Review September 2014 Sector price-only total Notable Movers Financial 34.76% of S&P/TSX Composite 25.20% of S&P/TSX Composite 2.5% 2.3% 8.0% 7.6% Out of the 47 Financial sector constituents, only 7 rose while 40 declined. The Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) dragged the index down the most as it declined 3.5% this past month, with Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) close behind, falling 3.9%. A mere 3 companies in the sector gained this past month, including Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU), Inter Pipeline Ltd. (IPL), and Parkland Fuel Corp. (PKI), while the other 66 declined A lower demand forecast from the IEA contributed to lower oil prices Suncor Inc. (SU), Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ), and Cenovus Inc. (CVE) were the 3 biggest contributors to the sector s decline % of S&P/TSX Composite 8.61% of S&P/TSX Composite Discretionary 5.69% of S&P/TSX Composite Telecommunication Services 4.47% of S&P/TSX Composite 3.18% of S&P/TSX Composite Staples 3.06% of S&P/TSX Composite 11.5% 11.4% 1.1% 1.4% 4.1% 4.0% 3.2% 2.2% 10.3% 10.3% 3.2% 3.5% Out of the 52 index constituents, 6 rose while 46 declined, as three gold companies, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), Goldcorp Inc. (G), and Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI) were the 3 biggest contributors to the sector s decline. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) and Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. (TRQ) contributed positively to the index. Canadian National Railway (CNR) and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP) continued their upwards moves from August. CP rose almost 7% while CNR was up 1.8%. Magna International Inc. (MG), while being the main driver of this sector s increase last month, brought it down the most in September as MG shares declined 13.8%. The sector had a fairly consistent decline through the latter half of the month For the month overall, 12 of the constituents decreased while 8 rose. The Telecommunication Services sector had none of its 5 constituents rise this past month Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B), Telus Corp. (T), and BCE Inc. (BCE) all declined 5.4%, 3.6%, and 2.2% respectively on a price only basis. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. (VRX) by far had the most significant impact on the healthcare sector. Out of the 10 Staples constituents, 6 rose in September, with Alimentation Couche Tard Inc. (ATD.B) having the best performance of the constituents, rising 9.8% over the month on a price only basis. 1.95% of S&P/TSX Composite 0.9% 0.6% Out of the 12 constituents, 3 climbed while 9 declined. TransAlta Corp. (TA) declined about 6.3% in September and was the largest influence on the index s performance. Information Technology 1.89% of S&P/TSX Composite 0.5% 0.6% The Information Technology sector rose modestly, with 6 of 8 constituents rising. Constellation Software Inc. (CSU) was the biggest point contributor to the sector while CGI Group Inc. (GIB.A) was the biggest detractor.

4 S&P 500 Performance Review September 2014 ScotiaMcLeod S&P 500 Performance Review September 2014 & Discretionary Pull Down the S&P 500 The S&P 500 Index dropped 1.6% in September on a price only basis. Of the 502 stocks in the index, 142 were higher and 362 were lower (figures include 2 stocks that were replaced during the month) Index Returns (price only) September YTD S&P 500 Index 1.6% +6.7% DOW Jones 0.3% +2.8% NASDAQ Comp. Index 1.9% +7.6% RUSSEL 2000 Index 6.2% 5.3% The DOW Jones Industrial Average declined less than the broad market in September, while the NASDAQ mirrored the S&P 500 s decline and the RUSSEL 2000 index declined the most. The S&P500 outperformed the S&P/TSX Composite in USD terms in July, with the U.S. index down 1.6% while the Canadian index dropped 7.2% on a price only basis. Reversing its trend from last month, the sector had the largest decline out of the 10 sectors as commodity prices dropped from decreased demand Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) created the largest positive impact on the index, while Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) dragged it down. Biggest Point Contributors Bank of America Corp Johnson & Johnson NIKE Inc Facebook Inc Microsoft Corp Altria Group Inc EI du Pont de Nemours & Co Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Allergan Inc AbbVie Inc. Biggest Point Detractors Exxon Mobil Corp Chevron Corp Oracle Corp Apple Inc Schlumberger Ltd Ford Motor Co Caterpillar Inc Amazon.com Inc Occidental Petroleum Corp EOG Resources Inc 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Telecom 0.3% 0.3% Staples 0.3% Financial 0.5% Info Tech 0.8% Industrial 1.3% S&P % 1.7% 2.2% Discretionary 2.9% 8.0% 9.0% September 2014 S&P 500 Index Performance by Sector (Price only) Source: Bloomberg 7.6%

5 S&P 500 Performance Review September 2014 Sector Information Technology 19.58% of S&P 500 Index Financial 16.39% of S&P 500 Index 13.91% of S&P 500 Index Discretionary 10.21% of S&P 500 Index 9.63% of S&P 500 Index 11.75% of S&P 500 Index Staples 9.61% of S&P 500 Index 3.41% of S&P 500 Index 3.05% of S&P 500 Index Telecommunication Services 2.44% of S&P 500 Index price-only total 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 2.9% 2.8% 7.6% 7.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.7% 1.5% 2.2% 1.9% 0.3% 0.4% Notable Movers 44 of 64 of the constituents dropped this past month, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) causing the most decline Facebook Inc. (FB) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) had the largest positive impact on the sector 26 of the 84 Financial sector constituents were up, with the other 58 down in September with Bank of America Corp. (BAC) being the only significant outlier in regards to impacting the sector s performance, as it rose 6.5% throughout the month. There were no significant outliers when analyzing the declining constituents influence on this sector s performance. The sector remained relatively unchanged as 24 constituents rose and 31 declined. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Allergan Inc. (AGN), and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) held the most impressive performance over the month. With 24 out of the 61 constituents in this sector rising through September, Nike Inc. (NKE) had the best performance, surging 13.2% after the company posted Q1 profit that topped analysts estimates after the FIFA World Cup boosted the company s sales. Ford Motor Co. (F) caused the most decline in the sector as its shares plunged late in the month, finishing it with a 15% decline, as the company had to cut its sales forecasts and volume softened. Out of the sector, no constituents rose as all 44 declined in September along with decreasing commodity prices due to a drop in demand due to lower imports in China. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), and Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) declined the most in the month, dropping 5.5%, 7.3%, and 7.7% respectively. As the sector declined in September, 20 constituents rose, while 45 were in decline. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) caused the largest negative impact to the sector as it consistently dropped throughout the month, concluding at an 8.9% loss. Altria Group Inc. (MO) and The Coca Cola Co. (KO) were the biggest detractors of this sector in September, with 23 constituents rising and 17 declining. While ending a little above the unchanged mark in September, the sector showed some decent volatility through the month. Freeport McMoRan Inc. (FCX) caused the largest decline in the index, while EI du Pont de Nemours & Co. (DD) and Sigma Aldrich Corp. (SIAL) pushed it significantly higher 23 constituents declined, while 7 increased. 6 out of 30 of the sector s constituents went up in August, while 23 decreased and 1 remained unchanged, with no individual constituents having significantly more impact on the index s performance than others. With 3 of the 5 constituents increasing in the sector, AT&T Inc. (T) and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) caused the largest push upwards as they gained 1.4% and 1.2% respectively throughout the month.