Month in Review: JULY 2014

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1 Month in Review: JULY 2014 Cameron Wilson, CIM, FCSI Investment Advisor What Moved the Markets Investors faced a busy month of July as fresh economic data, renewed geopolitical tensions in established hotspots, and new twists to established economic troubles in Argentina and Europe drove trading activity. Overall, global economic data was mixed, but there were encouraging signs out of the United States. June non-farm payroll data was better than expected as the economy generated 288,000 jobs (consensus: 215,000) and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1% (consensus: 6.3%). Other key data in the U.S., including auto sales and home sales, were also better than expected and pointed to an economy on track for solid growth in the second half of the year. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a 4% pace in the second quarter, which was well above market expectations of 3%. However, the overall impact of these data releases on global markets was somewhat offset by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia, as well as concerns about Portuguese bank Banco Espirito, and a potential debt default by Argentina. The Federal Reserve s statement and policy decision on July 30th came and went with no major market reaction. The most notable takeaway from the release was the statement that odds of persistent sub-2% inflation diminished somewhat. Those who were looking for additional guidance on wage expectations were left wanting. Policy was left unchanged and, as expected, the wind down of the Fed s bond-buying program continues with another $10 billion reduction in its monthly purchases. The central bank remains on schedule to end its stimulative tapering initiative by October of this year. This month, the S&P/TSX generated a positive return of 1.4%, while the S&P 500 declined by 1.4%. S&P/TSX sector performance was mostly positive in July. The Consumer Staples sector noted the largest increase, gaining 6.3%. The Financials (4.3%), Industrials (3.6%), Information Technology (2.3%), Consumer Discretionary (1.6%), and Materials (1%) sectors also saw increases. Utilities, Energy, and Healthcare sectors decreased 1.4%, 2.3%, and 3.2% respectfully. The Telecom Services sector was flat through July. In the U.S., Utilities (-6.8%), Industrials (-4.1%), Energy (-3.3%), and Consumer Staples (-3.2%) all fell in July. The Telecom Services sector experienced the greatest gains in the U.S., increasing 3.7%. All indices and figures priced in local currency as at July 31, 2014 (unless otherwise stated). For Important Disclosures, see page 9.

2 What Moved the Markets continued from page 1 Overseas, indices were mostly positive in July. China s Shanghai Index and Hong Kong s Hang Seng surged by 8.8% and 7.3%, respectively. Brazil s Bovespa (5%), India s Sensex (2.3%), the Nikkei (3%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (4.4%) all experienced positive returns. Only the FTSE 100 and DAX declined in July, shedding 0.1%, 1.4% and 4.3%, respectively. The MSCI World Index decreased by 1.6%. Gold stocks on the S&P/TSX were mainly flat in July, declining 0.3%, however continue to be up 25% for the year. The S&P/TSX Financials gained 4.3%, while the Small Cap subsector decreased by 3% for the month. Fixed Income-Specific Developments The yield on the U.S. 10-year inched up marginally at the end of July (2.56%) versus the end of the prior month (2.53%) as demand for government debt remained strong despite solid data and a continued reduction of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. U.S. inflation data for the month of June proved to be a non-event as the print was in-line with expectations. In Canada, the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond fell 8 basis points (to 2.16%) relative to the level at the end of June. This was largely a function of weaker than expected Canadian employment data, as earlier in the month a strong PMI reading and higher than expected CPI data had sent long term rates higher. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz pointed to underwhelming growth as a major cause for the central bank s ongoing cautious stance. The shift in focus from price pressures to growth prospects placed greater importance on upcoming U.S. data releases as investors expect a stronger US economy will help Number Crunching Equity Indices* Month YTD* S&P/TSX Composite Index TR 1.4% 14.5% Dow Jones Industrial Average TR -1.4% 1.2% S&P 500 Index TR -1.4% 5.7% NASDAQ Composite Index TR -0.8% 5.3% MSCI EAFE TR (USD) -2.0% 3.1% MSCI World TR (USD) -1.6% 4.8% S&P/TSX Sector Performance* Month YTD* S&P/TSX Financials TR 4.3% 13.5% S&P/TSX Energy TR -2.3% 18.3% S&P/TSX Materials TR 1.0% 17.8% S&P/TSX Industrials TR 3.6% 15.9% S&P/TSX Consumer Discretionary TR 1.6% 10.8% S&P/TSX Telecom Services TR 0.0% 5.1% S&P/TSX Information Technology TR 2.3% 15.1% S&P/TSX Consumer Staples TR 6.3% 17.3% S&P/TSX Utilities TR -1.4% 8.5% S&P/TSX Healthcare TR -3.2% 1.8% * All returns are on a Total Return basis. All indices are in local currency unless otherwise noted. Source: Bloomberg Currencies Exchange Month YTD* (in Canadian Dollars) US Dollar % 2.7% Euro % 0.0% British Pound % 4.7% Japanese Yen (100) % 5.2% Commodities (US$) Spot Price Month YTD* Crude Oil (WTI per barrel) $ % -0.3% Natural Gas $ % -9.2% (per million btu) Gold (per ounce) $1, % 6.4% Silver (per ounce) $ % 4.8% Copper (per pound) $ % -3.3% Nickel (per pound) $ % 33.3% Aluminum (per pound) $ % 12.8% Zinc (per pound) $ % 14.8% 2 MONTH IN REVIEW

3 3 MONTH IN REVIEW What Moved the Markets continued from page 2 propel Canadian growth. Unlike the US, however, rate hikes are not currently a focal point in Canada, and it is widely known that a low Canadian dollar remains critical to Canada s growth story. 1.4 % 1.2 % S&P/TSX Index - Target Overnight Rate, LTM 16,000 15,000 Global Developments In Europe, mixed data coupled with fear of increasing EU sanctions on Russia drove bond yields lower across the euro zone. In Asia, Q2 GDP growth out of China accelerated to 7.5%, which was higher than expected. This helped lift overall sentiment in the region and drove multiple equity indices higher. 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.6 % 0.4 % S&P/TSX Index Target Overnight Rate ,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 Elsewhere, Argentina defaulted for the second time in 12 years on July 30th when it failed to make a $539 million interest payment to bondholders that had agreed to participate in 2005 and 2010 debt exchanges. These exchanges followed the nation s 2001 default on nearly $100 billion worth of debt. This was just the latest chapter in a long-running saga that has pitted Argentina against a group of investors that have opposed the prior debt exchanges and pushed for full repayment. As Argentinean sovereign bonds are not widely held, the default is not expected to have significant ramifications for global financial markets. Yet, this issue is likely to remain in the headlines for some time. Source: Bloomberg

4 4 MONTH IN REVIEW North American Equity Highlights July ,750 July 14: Citigroup (C) shares increaed 3.02% as it reported better-than-expected second quarter 2014 results while also settling a deal with the DOJ regarding MBS's. 1 July 29: Twitter (TWTR) rose 30% in after market trading after its revenue more than doubled in the second quarter. 3 1,980 15,500 July 3: Lorillard (LO) shares rose 6.2% and Reynolds American (RAI) shares gained nearly 3% after reports that the two companies were likely to merge as early as the end of July. 1 July 21: Yum!Brands (YUM) shares were down 3.5% and McDonald's (MCD) shares were down 0.9% after both companies were invovled in a food safety scare in China. 1 1,950 1,920 S&P/TSX 15,250 July 7: Rogers Communications (RCI.B) fell 1.53% and Telus (T) declined 1.63% after the federal government announced plans to auction valuable wavelength rights with more than half set aside for new entrants. 3 July 16: BlackBerry (BB) shares declined 11.7% after an annoucement of an Apple/IBM Partnership for business applications. 2 1,890 1,860 1,830 15,000 1, /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/31 July 28: Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH) fell 7.3% to its lowest intraday price in seven months after saying it is continuing efforts to collect a $1.32 billion payment from PetroChina Co. for a Canadian oil-sands project. 4 S&P 500 July 23: Talisman (TLM) shares soared 13.3% on news about possible deals with the Spanish energy giant Repsol SA. 2 S&P/TSX S&P Wall Street Journal 2 The Financial Post 3 The Globe and Mail 4 BNN Pricing Data Source: Bloomberg

5 5 MONTH IN REVIEW World Markets July 2014 Global indices were mostly positive in July. China s Shanghai Index and Hong Kong s Hang Seng surged by 8.8% and 7.3%, respectively. The S&P/TSX (1.4%), Brazil s Bovespa (5%), S&P/ASX 200 (4.4%), the Nikkei (3%) and India s Sensex (2.3%) all experienced positive returns. Only the FTSE 100, S&P 500, and DAX declined in July, shedding 0.1%, 1.4% and 4.3%, respectively. The MSCI World Index decreased by 1.6%. Canada: S&P/TSX M/M: 1.4% YTD: 14.5% U.S.: S&P 500 M/M: -1.4% YTD: 5.7% Brazil: Bovespa** M/M: 5.0% YTD: 8.4% U.K.: FTSE 100 M/M: -0.1% YTD: 1.9% Germany: DAX M/M: -4.3% YTD: -1.5% MSCI World Index: Global USD M/M: -1.6% YTD: 4.8% India: Sensex M/M: 2.3% YTD: 23.9% China: Shanghai Index M/M: 8.8% YTD: 7.2% Hong Kong: Hang Seng M/M: 7.3% YTD: 9.4% Japan: Nikkei M/M: 3.0% YTD: -3.2% Australia: S&P/ASX 200 M/M: 4.4% YTD: 8.3% All returns are on a total return basis unless otherwise noted All returns calculated in local currency except for MSCI World ** These indices are calcuated on a price return basis Source: Bloomberg

6 Canadian & U.S. Equities July 2014 S&P/TSX Composite Sector Movement Top 10 S&P/TSX Contributors / Decliners by Index Points Royal Bank of Canada Royal Bank of Canada Toronto-Dominion Bank/The Toronto-Dominion Bank/The Bank of Nova Scotia Bank of Nova Scotia Canadian National Railway Co Canadian National Railway Co S&P 500 Sector Movement TransCanada Corp TransCanada Corp Enbridge Inc Enbridge Inc -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% Canadian 5% Pacific Railway Ltd 7% % -5% -3% Canadian Pacific -1% Railway Ltd 1% 3% 5% 7% Manulife Financial Corp Manulife Financial Corp Consumer Staples Financials First Quantum Minerals Ltd Bank of Montreal Tourmaline Oil Corp First Telecom Quantum Minerals Services Ltd Information Bank Technology of Montreal Tourmaline Oil Corp Industrials Cenovus Energy Inc Healthcare Cenovus Energy Inc Information Technology Penn West Petroleum Ltd TELUS Corp Penn Consumer West Petroleum Discretionary Ltd TELUS Corp Consumer Discretionary Materials Suncor Energy Inc Crescent Point Energy Corp Suncor Financials Energy Inc Crescent Materials Point Energy Corp Encana Corp Encana Corp Telecom Services Utilities Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc Canadian Natural Resources Ltd Potash Consumer Corp of Saskatchewan Staples Inc Canadian Energy Natural Resources Ltd Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc Energy Industrials Healthcare Utilities Top 10 S&P/TSX Contributors/Decliners by Index Points Top 10 S&P 500 Contributors/Decliners by Index Points Top 10 S&P 500 Contributors / Decliners by Index Points Royal Bank of Canada Toronto-Dominion Bank/The Bank of Nova Scotia Canadian National Railway Co TransCanada Corp Enbridge Inc Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd Manulife Financial Corp First Quantum Minerals Ltd Bank of Montreal Tourmaline Oil Corp Cenovus Energy Inc Penn West Petroleum Ltd TELUS Corp Suncor Energy Inc Crescent Point Energy Corp Encana Corp Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc Canadian Natural Resources Ltd Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc Apple Inc 1.79 Apple Inc Intel Corp 1.68 Intel Corp Gilead Sciences Inc 1.49 Gilead Sciences Inc Time Warner Inc 1.27 Time Warner Inc Microsoft Corp 1.24 Microsoft Corp International Business Machines Corp 1.11 International Business Machines Corp Facebook Inc 1.04 Facebook Inc Amgen Inc 0.77 Amgen Inc Verizon Communications Inc 0.69 Verizon Communications Inc EMC Corp/MA 0.68 EMC Corp/MA AbbVie Inc AbbVie Inc Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Exxon Mobil Corp Exxon Mobil Corp Wells Fargo & Co Wells Fargo & Co United Technologies Corp United Technologies Corp QUALCOMM Inc QUALCOMM Inc General Electric Co General Electric Co Coca-Cola Co/The Coca-Cola Co/The Schlumberger Ltd Schlumberger Ltd Johnson & Johnson Johnson & Johnson 6 MONTH IN REVIEW Source: Bloomberg

7 7 MONTH IN REVIEW Canadian and U.S. Economic Data July 2014 Release Date Economic Indicators: Canada Period Consensus Actual Prior 07/31/2014 Gross Domestic Product (m-o-m, SA) May 0.40% 0.40% 0.10% 07/31/2014 Gross Domestic Product (y-o-y, SA) May 2.30% 2.30% 2.10% 06/04/2014 Bank of Canada Rate 4 Jun 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% Labour market 07/11/2014 Net Change in Employment (000, SA) Jun /11/2014 Participation Rate (SA) Jun % 66.10% 07/11/2014 Unemployment Rate (SA) Jun 7.00% 7.10% 7.00% Housing market 07/09/2014 Housing Starts (000, SAAR) Jun /10/2014 New Housing Price Index (y-o-y) May % 1.60% 07/15/2014 Existing Home Sales (m-o-m) Jun % 5.90% 07/14/2014 Teranet/National Bank HPI (m-o-m) Jun % 0.80% Consumer & Manufacturing 07/23/2014 Retail Sales (m-o-m, SA) May 0.60% 0.70% 1.30% 07/23/2014 Retail Sales Less Autos (m-o-m, SA) May 0.30% 0.10% 0.80% 07/16/2014 Manufacturing Sales (m-o-m, SA) May 1.00% 1.60% -0.20% Trade 07/03/2014 Merchandise Trade (billion, SA) May Prices 07/18/2014 Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) Jun 0.00% 0.10% 0.50% 07/18/2014 Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) Jun 2.30% 2.40% 2.30% 07/18/2014 Bank of Canada CPI Core (m-o-m) Jun -0.20% -0.10% 0.50% 07/18/2014 Bank of Canada CPI Core (y-o-y) Jun 1.70% 1.80% 1.70% 07/30/2014 Industrial Product Price (m-o-m) Jun 0.20% -0.10% -0.50%

8 8 MONTH IN REVIEW Economic Data continued from page 7 Release Date Economic Indicators: Canada Period Consensus Actual Prior 07/18/2014 Wholesale Sales (m-o-m, SA) May 0.60% 2.20% 1.40% 07/07/2014 Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (SA) Jun /07/2014 Building Permits (m-o-m, SA) May 2.00% 13.80% 2.20% 06/05/2014 Building Permits (m-o-m, SA) Apr 4.20% 1.10% -3.20% Release Date Economic Indicators: U.S. Period Consensus Actual Prior 07/30/2014 GDP (q-o-q, SAAR) 2Q A 3.00% 4.00% -2.10% 07/30/2014 GDP Price Index (q-o-q, SAAR) 2Q A 1.80% 2.00% 1.30% 07/30/2014 Core PCE (q-o-q, SAAR) 2Q A 1.90% 2.00% 1.20% 06/18/2014 Federal Funds Target Rate 18 Jun 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Labour market 07/03/2014 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (000, SA) Jun /03/2014 Unemployment Rate (SA) Jun 6.30% 6.10% 6.30% Housing market 07/17/2014 Building Permits (000, SAAR) Jun /17/2014 Housing Starts (000, SAAR) Jun /24/2014 New Home Sales (000, SAAR) Jun /22/2014 Existing Home Sales (million, SAAR) Jun /16/2014 NAHB Housing Market Index (SA) Jul /01/2014 Construction Spending (m-o-m, SA) May 0.50% 0.10% 0.80% Consumer & Manufacturing 07/15/2014 Advance Retail Sales (m-o-m, SA) Jun 0.60% 0.20% 0.50% 07/15/2014 Retail Sales Less Autos (m-o-m, SA) Jun 0.50% 0.40% 0.40% 07/29/2014 Consumer Confidence (SA) Jul /18/2014 U. of Michigan Confidence Jul P /30/2014 Personal Consumption (q-o-q, SAAR) 2Q A 1.90% 2.50% 1.20% 07/25/2014 Durable Goods Orders (m-o-m, SA) Jun 0.50% 0.70% -1.00% 07/02/2014 Factory Orders (m-o-m, SA) May -0.30% -0.50% 0.80%

9 Economic Data continued from page 8 Release Date Economic Indicators: U.S. Period Consensus Actual Prior Trade 07/15/2014 Import Price Index (m-o-m) Jun 0.40% 0.10% 0.30% 07/15/2014 Import Price Index (y-o-y) Jun 1.10% 1.20% 0.60% 07/03/2014 Trade Balance (billion, SA) May Prices 07/22/2014 Consumer Price Index (m-o-m, SA) Jun 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 07/22/2014 Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) Jun 2.10% 2.10% 2.10% 07/22/2014 CPI Core Index (SA) Jun /01/2014 PCE Deflator (y-o-y, SA) Jun 1.70% 1.60% 1.70% Other Indicators 07/01/2014 ISM Manufacturing Index (SA) Jun /31/2014 Chicago Purchasing Manager Index Jul /17/2014 Philadelphia Fed Index Jul /18/2014 Leading Indicators (m-o-m) Jun 0.50% 0.30% 0.70% 07/15/2014 Business Inventories (m-o-m, SA) May 0.60% 0.50% 0.60% Source: Bloomberg SA = Seasonally Adjusted; SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate; m-o-m = Month-over-month % change; q-o-q = Quarter-over-quarter % change; y-o-y = Year-over-year % change. This document has been prepared for use by the RBC Wealth Management member companies, RBC Dominion Securities Inc. (RBC DS)*, RBC Phillips, Hager & North Investment Counsel Inc. (RBC PH&N IC), RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM), Royal Trust Corporation of Canada and The Royal Trust Company (collectively, the Companies ) and their affiliates, RBC Direct Investing Inc. (RBC DI) *, RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. (RBC WM FS) and Royal Mutual Funds Inc. (RMFI). Each of the Companies, their affiliates and the Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Members-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC advisor refers to Private Bankers who are employees of Royal Bank of Canada and mutual fund representatives of RMFI, Investment Counsellors who are employees of RBC PH&N IC and the private client division of RBC GAM, Senior Trust Advisors and Trust Officers who are employees of The Royal Trust Company or Royal Trust Corporation of Canada, or Investment Advisors who are employees of RBC DS. In Quebec, financial planning services are provided by RMFI or RBC WM FS and each is licensed as a financial services firm in that province. In the rest of Canada, financial planning services are available through RMFI, Royal Trust Corporation of Canada, The Royal Trust Company, or RBC DS. Estate & Trust Services are provided by Royal Trust Corporation of Canada and The Royal Trust Company. If specific products or services are not offered by one of the Companies or RMFI, clients may request a referral to another RBC partner. Insurance products are offered through RBC WM FS, a subsidiary of RBC DS. When providing life insurance products in all provinces except Quebec, Investment Advisors are acting as Insurance Representatives of RBC WM FS. In Quebec, Investment Advisors are acting as Financial Security Advisors of RBC WM FS. The strategies, advice and technical content in this publication are provided for the general guidance and benefit of our clients, based on information believed to be accurate and complete, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This publication is not intended as nor does it constitute tax or legal advice. Readers should consult a qualified legal, tax or other professional advisor when planning to implement a strategy. This will ensure that their individual circumstances have been considered properly and that action is taken on the latest available information. Interest rates, market conditions, tax rules, and other investment factors are subject to change. This information is not investment advice and should only be used in conjunction with a discussion with your RBC advisor. None of the Companies, RMFI, RBC WM FS, RBC DI, Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. Registered trademarks of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license Royal Bank of Canada. All rights reserved. 9 MONTH IN REVIEW