Cory O Krainetz April 11, 2017
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1 INVESTMENT RESEARCH OB YIELD PORTFOLIO QUARTERLY SUMMARY Cory O Krainetz April 11, 2017 The Odlum Brown Yield Portfolio was established on September 15, 2002 with a hypothetical investment of $500,000. The Portfolio provides a basis to measure the quality of our advice. It also facilitates an understanding of how we believe individual security recommendations can be used in the context of an income-oriented client portfolio. Trades are made using the closing price on the day a change is announced. These are gross figures before fees. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Portfolio Objectives The primary objective of the OB Yield Portfolio is to provide a basket of equity investments for income-oriented investors. The Portfolio is built with a total return approach, but with an emphasis on income generation and preservation of capital. The performance is measured against the S&P/TSX Total Return Composite Index. While it is a poor benchmark for an income-focused portfolio due to its relatively low yield and heavy weighting towards cyclical resource stocks, a better alternative is not available in Canada. The Portfolio currently has an annualized yield of 3.8%, which compares favourably to a yield of 2.8% for the Composite Index. In addition, the Portfolio is designed to be more conservative than the benchmark. Holdings primarily consist of highquality, dividend-paying stocks. Results The OB Yield Portfolio gained 4.6% in the first quarter, which was higher than the 2.7% increase for the S&P/TSX Total Return Composite Index. The Portfolio benefitted as conservative dividend-paying stocks once again became more popular than cyclical resource stocks. Since inception, the Portfolio has outperformed the broader Canadian stock market. The compound annual return for the Portfolio is 12.7%, which is meaningfully higher than the Composite Index at 9.0%. 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year Since Inception 2 Odlum Brown Yield Portfolio 4.6% 16.5% 10.8% 11.7% 11.6% 8.1% 12.7% S&P/TSX Total Return Composite Index 2.7% 19.2% 6.0% 7.7% 6.8% 4.9% 9.0% Difference 1.9% -2.8% 4.7% 4.0% 4.8% 3.2% 3.6% 1 Annualized except for the 3 month period 2 The Odlum Brown Yield Portfolio was incepted September 15, 2002 Compound Annual Returns 1 (for the period ended March 15, 2017) Suite Howe Street Vancouver, BC V6C 3S9 Main Toll Free VANCOUVER KELOWNA VICTORIA CHILLIWACK COURTENAY Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund ODLUMBROWN.COM
2 A hallmark of the OB Yield Portfolio has been its relative outperformance during tough times. Since the Portfolio s inception in 2002, there have been 40 quarters with a positive market return and 18 quarters with a negative market return. The Portfolio s performance has been roughly in line with the Composite Index during up quarters, with an average increase of 6.2%, compared to 6.4% for the benchmark. However, during down quarters, the Portfolio fell by an average of only 3.4%, compared to an average decline of 6.1% for the Composite Index. We believe that losing less during inevitable market corrections is paramount to compounding wealth over the long term. The lower level of volatility should also appeal to more conservative investors. The OB Yield Portfolio has produced a total return of 463% since its inception, while the S&P/TSX Total Return Composite Index has generated a total return of 250% over the same time period. The Portfolio has proven to be a consistent performer for more than a decade and the value has never dipped below that of the benchmark. Odlum Brown Limited Page 2 of 6
3 Trading Activity We made two trades during the first quarter. We established a 3.9% holding in Canadian REIT and sold our entire position in Trinidad Drilling. We believe the trades have upgraded the quality of the Portfolio, while improving the yield. A summary is provided in the table below. Summary of Trades for January 6, 2017 Action Symbol Dividend Yield Initial Position Change Ending Position Initial Portfolio Weighting Ending Portfolio Weighting Share Price Trade Value in CAD Sell TDG 0 15,000 (15,000) % 0% $3.53 $52,950 Buy REF.UN 3.9% 0 2,000 2, % 3.5% $47.29 ($94,580) Change in Cash Balance ($41,630) Initial Cash Weighting Ending Cash Weighting 2.0% 0.5% Investment Strategy The Canadian 10-year Government bond yield moved higher after hitting a record low of less than 1% in September 2016, but rates have moderated in recent months. The combination of volatile interest rates and a surprise Donald Trump victory in the U.S. election have contributed to wild swings in investor sentiment. Financials and cyclical resource stocks performed very well at the end of last year, but utilities, telecom, and real estate have been more popular in recent months. Regardless of the ebb and flow of equity markets, our strategy has remained consistent. We prefer to own high-quality, dividend-paying stocks that can grow, even in a challenging economic environment. Moreover, we think it is better to accept a lower dividend yield if the investment offers less downside risk and/or there is potential for regular dividend increases. The Government of Canada 10-Year Bond yield is currently 1.6%, which is still only a fraction of the 5.6% average over the last 30 years. We believe that interest rates could increase further, but will likely remain below average for an extended period given a tepid inflation outlook and excessive government debt burdens around the world. Moreover, a greater-thanexpected increase in interest rates would likely mean that economic conditions are improving and earnings growth is better than expected. Therefore, we think the stocks that we favour will continue to provide a satisfactory return in a wide range of scenarios. Odlum Brown Limited Page 3 of 6
4 The OB Yield Portfolio is well diversified and is skewed towards less cyclical areas of the market. The Portfolio s combined weighting in the Consumer Staples, Telecom, Utilities, and Healthcare sectors is 42.3%. In contrast, the Composite Index has just an 11.9% combined weighting. Conversely, we have maintained an underweight position in the more cyclical areas of the market. Our combined weighting in Energy and Materials is 17.6%, which compares to a weight of 33.5% for the Composite Index. The chart below highlights the large disparity between sector weights in the Portfolio and the benchmark. Odlum Brown Limited Page 4 of 6
5 ODLUM BROWN YIELD PORTFOLIO S&P/TSX 15-Mar-17 Market Portfolio Projected Target Total Return Estimated Weight Price Shares Value Weight Yield Price Estimate Income FINANCIALS 35.0% 22.1% Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) $ ,400 $158, % 3.6% $ % $5,760 Bank of Montreal (BMO) $ ,500 $151, % 3.5% $ % $5,280 Royal Bank of Canada (RY) $ ,450 $140, % 3.6% $ % $5,046 Intact Financial (IFC) $ $84, % 2.7% $ % $2,304 *Oaktree Capital (OAK) $ ,450 $87, % 5.6% $ % $4,915 REAL ESTATE 3.0% 16.7% *Weyerhaeuser (WY) $ ,500 $113, % 3.7% $ % $4,170 Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN) $ ,000 $91, % 4.9% N/A -95.1% $4,500 Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust (REF.UN) $ ,000 $97, % 3.8% $ % $3,660 Granite REIT (GRT.UN) $ ,100 $95, % 5.7% $ % $5,468 Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN) $ ,000 $72, % 4.2% $ % $3,060 MATERIALS 12.2% 3.6% PotashCorp (POT) $ ,400 $101, % 2.3% $ % $2,353 ENERGY 21.3% 14.0% *Chevron Corp. (CVX) $ $102, % 4.0% $ % $4,067 Gibson Energy (GEI) $ ,000 $99, % 6.7% $ % $6,600 Peyto Exploration and Development (PEY) $ ,850 $79, % 4.7% $ % $3,762 *Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) $ $66, % 6.8% $ % $4,551 Cenovus Energy (CVE) $ ,750 $45, % 1.2% $ % $550 INDUSTRIALS 8.9% 0.0% CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 5.1% 0.0% INFO TECH 2.8% 0.0% CONSUMER STAPLES 3.7% 11.8% *Kraft Heinz (KHC) $ ,000 $123, % 2.6% $ % $3,228 *Procter & Gamble (PG) $ ,000 $122, % 2.9% $ % $3,602 *Unilever PLC - ADR (UL) $ ,300 $86, % 2.8% $ % $2,405 TELECOM SERVICES 3.0% 10.6% Rogers Communications (RCI.B) $ ,300 $184, % 3.4% $ % $6,336 BCE (BCE) $ ,000 $115, % 5.0% $ % $5,740 UTILITIES 4.7% 16.2% Fortis (FTS) $ ,750 $160, % 3.7% $ % $6,000 Hydro One (H) $ ,600 $108, % 3.6% $ % $3,864 Canadian Utilities (CU) $ ,550 $99, % 3.7% $ % $3,646 Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BIP.UN) $ ,800 $87, % 4.7% $ % $4,103 HEALTH CARE 0.5% 3.7% *Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $ $104, % 2.5% $ % $2,582 SUB TOTAL $2,780, % SHORT TERM INVESTMENTS $36, % 0.5% $176 PORTFOLIO TOTAL 100% $2,817, % 3.8% $107,729 * Prices in U.S. dollars NMF = Not Meaningful UR = Under Review MP = Market Performer U.S. EXCHANGE (USD/CAD): $0.74 Foreign Content: 28.7%
6 Please read our Odlum Brown Limited Disclaimer and Disclosure - It is important! Odlum Brown Limited is an independent, full-service investment firm focused on providing professional investment advice and objective research. We respect your right to be informed of relationships with the issuers or strategies referred to in this report which might reasonably be expected to indicate potential conflicts of interest with respect to the securities or any investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. We do not act as a market maker in any securities and do not provide investment banking or advisory services to, or hold positions in, the issuers covered by our research. Analysts and their associates may, from time to time, hold securities of issuers discussed or recommended in this report because they personally have the conviction to follow their own research, but we have implemented internal policies that impose restrictions on when and how an Analyst may buy or sell securities they cover and any such interest will be disclosed in our report in accordance with regulatory policy. Our Analysts receive no direct compensation based on revenue from investment banking services. We describe our research policies in greater detail, including a description of our rating system and how we disseminate our research, on the Odlum Brown Limited website at This report has been prepared by Odlum Brown Limited and is intended only for persons resident and located in all the provinces and territories of Canada, where Odlum Brown Limited's services and products may lawfully be offered for sale, and therein only to clients of Odlum Brown Limited. This report is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country including the United States, where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Odlum Brown Limited to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. As no regard has been made as to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and other particular circumstances of any person who may receive this report, clients should seek the advice of a registered investment advisor and other professional advisors, as applicable, regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or any investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. This report is for information purposes only and is neither a solicitation for the purchase of securities nor an offer of securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources we believe to be reliable, however, we make no guarantee, representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to such information s accuracy or completeness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report, whether or not our own, are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Please note that, as at the date of this report, the Research Analyst responsible for the recommendations herein, associates of such Analyst and/or other individuals directly involved in the preparation of this report hold securities of some of the issuer(s) referred to directly or through derivatives. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the express written consent of Odlum Brown Limited. Odlum Brown Limited is a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Odlum Brown Limited Page 6 of 6
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