Sure Dividend HIGH QUALITY DIVIDEND STOCKS, LONG-TERM PLAN
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1 Sure Dividend HIGH QUALITY DIVIDEND STOCKS, LONG-TERM PLAN January 2016 Model Portfolio By Ben Reynolds
2 2 20 Stock Model Portfolio The 20 Stock Model Portfolio weights the Top 20 high quality dividend stocks based on the 8 Rules of Dividend Investing so that stocks with lower correlations and higher quality scores are more heavily weighted in the portfolio. The portfolio is designed to spread risk across various factors so investors are not overly exposed to any one stock, industry, or risk factor. The 20 stock portfolio is well diversified, with no holding making up more than 10% of the total portfolio value. The 20 Stock Model Portfolio Target Weights are for investors looking to start their model portfolio. If you are currently running the portfolio, refer to the Rebalancing and Closed Positions portion of this guide to see if rebalancing is needed or if positions need to be switched. Portfolio Construction Rules The 20 Stock Model Portfolio is updated each month. Holdings will be sold if they have a P/E ratio over 40, or if a dividend payment is reduced or eliminated. Additionally, if a position falls out of the top 35% of rankings using the 8 Rules of Dividend Investing, it will be examined and replaced with a higher ranked stock if necessary. Performance will be tracked on both absolute and risk adjusted metrics and compared to the performance of the S&P500, as measured by the ticker SPY. Suitability The 20 Stock Model Portfolio is suitable for investors who are no longer in the accumulation phase of investing; people who have a fixed amount of assets and are no longer saving money each month. Retirees are an excellent example of a group for whom this 20 stock model portfolio may be suitable. The goal of the model portfolio is to provide steady, growing dividend income from extremely stable businesses while minimizing overall volatility by maximizing gains from diversification. The overall portfolio statistics are below for this month s target weights: Metrics Growth Rate: 8.5% Current Dividend Yield: 3.1% P/E Ratio: 17.1 Standard Deviation: 17.0%
3 3 20 Stock Model Portfolio Target Weights MO, 3.00% PM, 3.00% BDX, 3.00% KO, 3.00% ADM, 3.00% JNJ, 1.00% HP, 1.00% K, 3.00% ABT, 9.00% HRL, 8.00% MDT, 4.00% CAT, 4.00% VZ, 5.00% BCE, 8.00% AFL, 8.00% GIS, 6.00% DE, 7.00% GWW, 7.00% XOM, 7.00% WMT, 7.00% Ticker Company Target Weight ABT Abbott Laboratories 9% HRL Hormel Foods 8% BCE BCE, Inc. 8% AFL AFLAC 8% WMT Wal-Mart Stores 7% XOM Exxon Mobil 7% GWW W.W. Grainger 7% DE Deere & Company 7% GIS General Mills 6% VZ Verizon 5% CAT Caterpillar 4% UTX United Technologies 4% ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland 3% KO The Coca-Cola Company 3% BDX Becton, Dickinson and Company 3% PM Philip Morris 3% MO Altria 3% K Kellogg 3% JNJ Johnson & Johnson 1% HP Helmerich & Payne 1%
4 4 20 Stock Model Portfolio Fundamentals Ticker Name P/E Ratio Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Growth Rate Volatility Correlation ABT Abbott Laboratories % 46.43% 10.00% 19.79% HRL Hormel Foods Corp % 43.28% 10.00% 19.64% BCE BCE, Inc % 85.25% 5.00% 25.81% AFL AFLAC Inc % 27.84% 7.50% 43.49% WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc % 41.26% 6.00% 19.10% XOM ExxonMobil Corp % 61.60% 6.00% 25.32% GWW W.W. Grainger Inc % 38.42% 12.50% 25.89% DE Deere & Co % 41.67% 13.30% 35.06% GIS General Mills % 58.09% 8.00% 17.03% VZ Verizon Wireless % 59.32% 6.00% 21.73% CAT Caterpillar % 58.89% 9.00% 33.34% UTX United Technologies % 37.93% 8.50% 24.28% ADM Archer Daniels Midland % 37.71% 10.00% 34.32% KO Coca-Cola Company % 62.56% 8.00% 18.55% BDX Becton Dickinson & Co % 37.03% 10.00% 19.98% PM Philip Morris % 87.93% 8.00% 23.29% MO Altria Group Inc % 81.29% 8.00% 19.48% K Kellogg % 55.71% 6.25% 17.54% JNJ Johnson & Johnson % 49.75% 6.00% 16.15% HP Helmerich & Payne Inc % 71.43% 8.10% 45.62% P/E is calculated as the current price divided by trailing twelve months EPS; lower is better - Yield is calculated as the most recent quarterly dividend x 4 divided by the current price; higher is better - Payout ratio is the most recent quarterly dividend x 4 divided by TTM EPS; lower is better - Growth Rate is calculated using a mix of estimates and historical data - Volatility is the 10 year standard deviation of dividend and split adjusted price series; lower is better - Correlation is the average correlation coefficient of a stock to the 20 stocks that make up this portfolio; lower is better
5 5 20 Stock Model Portfolio Performance Ticker Company Start Closed Total Return Date Date Return Vs SPY ABT Abbott Laboratories 7/6/14 Open 11.56% 5.16% WMT Wal-Mart 7/6/14 Open % % GIS General Mills 7/6/14 Open 12.71% 6.31% HRL Hormel 7/6/14 Open 63.50% 57.10% KO Coca-Cola 7/6/14 Open 6.53% 0.12% BDX Becton, Dickinson 7/6/14 Open 31.18% 24.78% XOM ExxonMobil 7/6/14 ` Open % % PM Philip Morris 7/6/14 Open 9.14% 2.74% GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. 7/6/14 Open % % K Kellogg 12/8/14 Open 12.36% 11.10% HP Helmerich & Payne 6/8/15 Open % % AFL AFLAC 7/6/15 Open -1.43% -1.16% MO Altria 7/6/15 Open 18.99% 19.26% DE Deere & Company 7/6/15 Open % % BCE BCE, Inc. 8/3/15 Open 0.18% -3.67% CAT Caterpillar 8/3/15 Open -0.65% -4.50% UTX United Technologies 8/3/15 Open -2.08% JNJ Johnson & Johnson 8/3/15 Open 4.20% 0.35% VZ Verizon 12/7/15 Open 0.35% 1.92% ADM Archer-Daniels-Mid. 1/4/16 Open N/A N/A CLX Clorox 7/6/14 10/6/ % 5.57% MMM 3M 7/6/14 12/8/ % 6.45% ECL Ecolab 7/6/14 6/8/ % -3.19% CB Chubb Group 7/6/14 7/6/ % 25.12% KMB Kimberly-Clark 7/6/14 7/6/ % -7.99% MKC McCormick & Co. 7/6/14 7/6/ % 6.22% PEP PepsiCo 7/6/14 8/3/ % 3.16% BCR C.R. Bard 7/6/14 8/3/ % 26.24% MDT Medtronic 10/6/14 8/3/ % 13.29% T AT&T 7/6/14 8/3/ % -5.54% MCD McDonald s 7/6/14 12/7/ % 13.26% SJM J.M. Smucker 7/6/14 1/4/ %* 12.12%* *J.M. Smucker s returns are based on closing price of 12/31/15. Final sales price will be from 1/4/16. Weighted Position Total Return: 7.5% Weighted Position Total Return vs. SPY: 3.1% Note: Comparisons are virtually worthless over short timeframes (like the 17 months above). 3 years and longer is a fair timeframe to judge performance.
6 6 Performance Overview This month, J.M. Smucker (SJM) stock should be sold and replaced with Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM). The portfolio purchased J.M. Smucker in July of 2014 and will hold until January 4 th, J.M. Smucker generated total returns of 18.5% during that time and outpaced the market by 12.1%. Since inception, the average weighted position in the 20 stock model portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 by 3.1 percentage points. I expect the 20 stock model portfolio to outperform the S&P 500 during corrections and bear markets, and slightly underperform during bull markets. The S&P 500 is up 6.4% since the 20 stock model portfolio s inception. While the market is up, 6.4% growth over ~1.5 years is not a strong bull market. As expected, the 20 stock model portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 in this relatively sideways market. As always, 3 years or longer is a fair time frame to judge performance. Rebalancing & Closed Positions SJM will be sold and replaced with ADM Thanks for reading the January 2016 edition of the Sure Dividend 20 stock model portfolio. Please see the Sure Dividend newsletter for additional commentary and insight. Thanks again, Ben Reynolds Sure Dividend
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