Index. Analyzer. Select Sector Indices. January Evaluate Select Sector Indices based on investment merit using fundamental data and analysis
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1 Index Analyzer January 218 Select Sector Indices Evaluate Select Sector Indices based on investment merit using fundamental data and analysis Compare sectors with ease on a variety of forward-looking valuation metrics Succinct reports in three easy-to-read sections: Investment Summary, Fundamentals, and Composition 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. Important additional disclosure information can be found on page 2.
2 Disclosures Limitations on Usage This report is provided by AltaVista Research, LLC ( AltaVista ) for informational purposes only, and is for distribution only as permitted by applicable law. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of AltaVista and make no allowances for any specific investment objectives. As such, they do not constitute a recommendation with respect to the investment merits of any security or index mentioned herein. Nothing in this report should be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. Prices and valuation data change with market conditions and investors should be aware that this material could be substantially out of date when distributed. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of AltaVista. Data Definitions & Reliability AltaVista believes the information contained in this report to be reasonably accurate at the time of publication, but makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. Calculations of fundamental data are based on a weighted average of consensus estimates and reported results for current index constituents. As a result, historical figures for fundamental data such as dividends per share may not reflect those actually paid by firms in the index. To the extent that index reconstitution and rebalancing have altered index composition, these differences may be significant. Definitions for some commonly used financial terms are as follows: Earnings/Net Income: Unless denoted as a GAAP figure, earnings are calculated on a pro forma basis using consensus EPS results/estimates for the individual constituents of each index, multiplied by the float-adjusted shares in the index. For Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), the consensus per-share figure for funds from operations, or FFO, is used in place of EPS data. Cash Flow: Adds depreciation and amortization to consensus earnings estimates Standard deviation: Statistical measure of price volatility using 3 years of monthly return data. Figures are annualized. Beta: Measures relative volatility of a given sector index versus the S&P by comparing 3 years of monthly return data. Book Value: Common Equity as reported by index constituents according to GAAP. Forecasts reflect pro-forma calculations using most recently reported figures, plus earnings less dividends. Dividends per share: Dividends paid by companies in the index on a pro forma basis. Payout ratio: Dividends as a percentage of Earnings/Net Income in a given year. Return on Equity: Net income divided by average common equity over the period. Debt-to-equity: Ratio of long- and short-term debt to owners equity. Long-term growth: Uses consensus estimates of 3- year earnings growth for individual constituents of each index to calculate a floatadjusted earnings-weighted growth rate for the index as a whole. Trend in Current FY Estimates: Illustrates changes in consensus estimates over time by examining the monthly change in current fiscal year EPS estimates for individual constituents of each index. Base period is set equal to 1. Price-to-Earnings, -Cash Flow, -Sales and -Book Value: Valuation multiples derived by dividing the index price by the per-share figures for earnings, cash flow, sales and book value, respectively, as per the 'per share results & estimates' for each index. HowWeRateIndices For every index under coverage, we calculate a rating based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to-Book Value multiples. Then, we separate the indices into five tiers based on their individual scores. Although one index's score and recommendation are independent of other indices' rankings, our coverage universe has a roughly normal distribution among the five tiers, with accounting for the largest number of indices. The five tiers are as follows: SPECULATIVE: Deeply undervalued but risky relative to the S&P. A rating of SPECULATIVE indicates exceptional appreciation potential in our opinion. However, firms in this index may also have deep structural issues, which can carry extra risk. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to-Book Value multiples. : Above average appreciation potential relative to the S&P. A rating of indicates that stocks in this index are trading at attractive valuations and/or have above-average fundamentals. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to-Book Value multiples. :. A rating of indicates that valuations adequately reflect the fundamentals of stocks in these indices. The majority of indices we cover fall into this category. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to-Book Value multiples. : Below average appreciation potential relative to the S&P. A rating of indicates that stocks in this index are trading at relatively expensive valuations and/or have below-average fundamentals. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to-Book Value multiples. : A rating of indicates poor appreciation potential relative to the S&P, but some indices in this category consist of stocks for which our fundamentally-driven analysis may be less relevant, especially for early-stage growth companies. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to-Book Value multiples. Additional information is available upon request. 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy.
3 Table of Contents Index Analyzer: Select Sector Indices Valuation Guide 4- IXY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index 6 IXR Consumer Staples Select Sector Index 7 IXE Energy Select Sector Index 8 IXM Financial Select Sector Index 9 IXV Health Care Select Sector Index 1 IXI Industrial Select Sector Index 11 IXB Materials Select Sector Index 12 IXRE Real Estate Select Sector Index 13 IXT Technology Select Sector Index 14 IXU Utilities Select Sector Index ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor Inc. is distributor for the Select Sector SPDR Trust. 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All Rights Reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
4 Valuation Guide Select Sector Indices December 29, 217 This page provides a summary of valuation metrics for the Select Sector Indices and S&P which may be considered when buying or selling a fund tracking these indices. Price-to-earnings ratio (on 217E EPS) Discretionary Staples Energy Financials Real Estate Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Utilities Efficiency Metrics* Risk measures: Standard Deviation Avg. ROE Asset Assets/ Debt/ Prices Earnings Est. (13-17E) Turnover Equity Equity (3yr Ann.) E Discretionary 21.1%.82x 3.6x 1.4x 11.7% 3. Staples x 2.9x.9x 9.9% 1.7% Energy 7..8x 2.2x.6x % Financials 9..7x 8.6x 1.4x. 2. Real Estate 16.1%.18x 2.7x 1.4x n/a n/a 1.9% Health Care 22.%.76x 2.x.7x 12.3% 2.1% Industrials x 3.7x 1.2x Materials 17..6x 3.2x 1.1x % Technology 23.%.2x 2.x.6x Utilities 1.7%.26x 3.9x 1.4x % *most recent FY available, except averages as noted Valuation multiples (based on 217 estimates) P/E PEG P/CF P/Sales P/BV Discretionary Staples Energy Financials Real Estate Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Utilities S&P Earnings per share growth % 28 43% 217E 218E 1% % % -% Discretionary Staples Energy Financials Real Estate Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Utilities Note: All valuation metrics on this page calculated based on consensus estimates of current index constituents, as collected by Bloomberg and FactSet. Definitions of technical terms can be found on page 2 of this document. 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All Rights Reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
5 Valuation Guide Select Sector Indices December 29, 217 Trends in P/E and P/BV multiples This page contains historical price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book value (P/BV) multiples based on rolling twelve-months' earnings and book value per share figures, respectively, for each Select Sector Index (maximum value of 1). It illustrates how these indices have traded in the recent past in relation to these two valuation metrics. Investors may consider this along with other data and information when buying or selling any security tracking these indices. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Consumer Staples Select Sector Financial Select Sector. Energy Select Sector P/E (left) 2. P/BV (right) *Note: maximum P/E = 1, may also indicate losses Health Care Select Sector Industrial Select Sector Materials Select Sector Technology Select Sector Utilities Select Sector AltaVista Research, LLC. All Rights Reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
6 Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index IXY 99.6,2, The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index is a modified cap-weighted index. The index is intended to track the movements of companies in the S&P that are involved in consumer cyclical or transportation industries. The index was established with a value of 2 on June 3, 19. One year 23.% Five year 17. Ten year 13.% Since inception 8.7% Beta vs. S&P 1. Standard deviation 11.7%. A rating of indicates that stocks in these indices. The majority of indices we cover fall into this category. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to-Book Value multiples. S&P SPECULATIVE E 218E CAGR Sales % Earnings Book Value % Dividends % Sales growth. 4.3% EPS growth %.1% % Most retailers had a good holiday, and better GDP growth, tax cuts and soaring consumer confidence provide a solid fundamental outlook. However, the unrelenting battle between bricksand-mortar retailers and online firms like Amazon appears to be resulting in declining Return on Equity while the sector's P/E trades at multi-year highs (see Historical P/E graph below). This makes it richly valued in our view, but inline with the broader S&P. % 1% % 1% 217E 218E Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales Price-to-Book Value % % Top 1 Constituents 16 AMAZON.COM INC Autos & HOME DEPOT INC 7.% parts 12 Leisure COMCAST CORP-CL A 6.% Durables 1 WALT DISNEY CO/THE. 8 MCDONALD'S CORP. 6 PRICELINE.COM INC NETFLIX INC 3. *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) STARBUCKS CORP 3.% Media TIME WARNER INC 2.9% Other Fundamental Data NIKE INC -CL B 2. TOTAL 7. LT growth est. 1.1% Payout ratio 3. Retail Constituent Allocation Debt-to-equity 1.4x No. of constituents 84 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $164,918 Med mkt cap (mns) $12,373 Large cap ( >$1bn) 9.9% Mid cap ($2-1bn) 4. Small cap ( <$2bn).% AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
7 Consumer Staples Select Sector Index IXR The Consumer Staples Select Sector Index is a modified capweighted index. The index is intended to track the movements of companies in the S&P that are involved in the development or production of consumer goods. The index was developed with a value of 2 on June 3, 19. One year 13.1% Five year 13.3% Ten year 1. Since inception 6.% Beta vs. S&P. Standard deviation 9.9%. A rating of indicates that stocks in these indices. The majority of indices we cover fall into this category. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to- Book Value multiples. S&P SPECULATIVE E 218E CAGR Sales Earnings % Book Value % Dividends Sales growth % 1.3% 2.% 3.% 4.1% EPS growth.7% % 2.% 4. 8.% Consumer Staples lagged the S&P considerably last year as investors turned cautious on interest rate-sensitive sectors, a threat which remains in place for 218 as well. Meanwhile consensus forecasts for faster revenue growth and further margin expansion this year seem optimistic to us. Valuations remain rich in an absolute sense, and P/Es may be in a downward trend. 3% % 1% % % % Top 1 Constituents PROCTER & GAMBLE CO/THE 12. COCA-COLA CO/THE 1.1% PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL 9.3% PEPSICO INC 9.% ALTRIA GROUP INC 7.% WAL-MART STORES INC.1% 217E 218E Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales Price-to-Book Value COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP 4.1% *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) CVS CAREMARK CORP 4.% MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC-A 3. Other Fundamental Data COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO 3. TOTAL 68.% LT growth est. 8.7% Payout ratio 9.1% Constituent Allocation Debt-to-equity.9x No. of constituents 34 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $136,472 Med mkt cap (mns) $2,29 Large cap ( >$1bn).% Mid cap ($2-1bn) 2.% Small cap ( <$2bn).% HH & Personal Products Food, Bvg & Tobacco 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure Food & Staples Retail
8 Energy Select Sector Index IXE ,2 1, The Energy Select Sector Index is a modified capitalizationweighted index. The index is intended to track the movements of companies in the S&P that are involved in the development or production of energy products. The index was established with a value of 2 on June 3, 19. One year -.9% Five year 2.9% Ten year 1.3% Since inception 8. Beta vs. S&P 1.7 Standard deviation 18. A rating of indicates poor appreciation potential relative to the S&P, but some indices in this category consist of stocks for which our fundamentally-driven analysis may be less relevant, especially for early-stage growth companies. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to-Book Value multiples S&P SPECULATIVE E 218E CAGR Sales Earnings n/m Book Value n/m Dividends % Sales growth -1.9% % 19.9% 6.9% EPS growth -2..9% -62.% -7.% 286.1% 42. Profits are rebounding from very depressed levels of the last few years--and revisions recently turned positive--but investors should be prepared for oil prices staying "lower for longer" as most shale producers can further ramp up production on any spike in prices. Energy stocks might be attractive if the lousy profitability for 2-17E is temporary rather than a "new normal," but we don't think that's likely to be the case. Energy has the lowest rating of any sector % % % % 217E 218E Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales Price-to-Book Value Top 1 Constituents 8 EXXON MOBIL CORP 23.7% 6 CHEVRON CORP 16.9% 4 SCHLUMBERGER LTD 6.9% CONOCOPHILLIPS 4.9% 2 EOG RESOURCES INC 4.% OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 3.9% PHILLIPS % *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) HALLIBURTON CO 2.9% VALERO ENERGY CORP 2. Other Fundamental Data KINDER MORGAN INC 2. TOTAL 72.% LT growth est. 18.% Payout ratio 9.1% Constituent Allocation Debt-to-equity.6x No. of constituents 32 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $14,37 Med mkt cap (mns) $,313 Large cap ( >$1bn) 97.% Mid cap ($2-1bn) 3.% Small cap ( <$2bn).% Energy 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
9 Financial Select Sector Index IXM The Financial Select Sector Index is a modified cap-weighted index. The index isintended to track the movements of companies in the S&P that are involved in the development or production of financial products. This index was established with a value of 2 on June 3, 19. One year 22. Five year 18. Ten year 3. Since inception 4. Beta vs. S&P 1.19 Standard deviation.. A rating of indicates that stocks in these indices. The majority of indices we cover fall into this category. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to- Book Value multiples. S&P SPECULATIVE E 218E CAGR Sales Earnings Book Value % Dividends % Sales growth -..7% % % EPS growth % 12.1% Higher interest rates ahead should help banks realize the higher margins and ROE forecast for 218, and tax cuts, regulatory relief and faster GDP growth could boost profits still further. Indeed investors do appear to have high expectations--p/es hover near multi-year highs-- but our ratings framework suggests Financials continue to look attractive vs the S&P. 1 1% % % 1% % % E 218E Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales Price-to-Book Value Top 1 Constituents BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC-CL B 11.1% 1 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 1.9% BANK OF AMERICA CORP 8.3% Insurance WELLS FARGO & CO 7.7% CITIGROUP INC 6. GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 2.7% US BANCORP 2.7% Banks *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) MORGAN STANLEY 2. CHUBB LIMITED 2. Diversified Other Fundamental Data AMERICAN EXPRESS CO 2. TOTAL 6.% LT growth est. 1.1% Payout ratio 27.7% Constituent Allocation Debt-to-equity 1.4x No. of constituents 67 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $19,14 Med mkt cap (mns) $16,947 Large cap ( >$1bn). Mid cap ($2-1bn) 1. Small cap ( <$2bn).% 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
10 Health Care Select Sector Index IXV The Health Care Select Sector Index is a modified capweighted index. The index is intended to track the movements of companies in the S&P that are involved in health care services. The index was established with a value of 2 on June 3, 19. One year 21.9% Five year 17. Ten year 11.% Since inception 8.% Beta vs. S&P.94 Standard deviation 12.3% Above average appreciation potential relative to the S&P. A rating of indicates that stocks in this index are trading at attractive valuations and/or have above-average fundamentals. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to-Book Value multiples. S&P SPECULATIVE E 218E CAGR Sales % Earnings Book Value Dividends Sales growth 4.9% % 9... EPS growth 1.7%.% % 6.% 6. This year looks to be a slow-growth repeat of 217, but the declines in Return on Equity from 214 thru 218E are a bigger cause for concern unless they can be reversed, perhaps by breakthroughs occurring in biotech. That said, while valuations for the S&P continue to get richer, Health Care trades considerably below its peak of mid-2 (see P/E History below) earning the sector the highest rating of any Sector SPDR. 1 1% E 218E Price-to-Earnings % Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales % Price-to-Book Value % % % Top 1 Constituents JOHNSON & JOHNSON 12.% 12 PFIZER INC 6.7% 1 UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC 6. MERCK & CO. INC ABBVIE INC 4. 6 Equip & AMGEN INC 4.1% 212 Svcs MEDTRONIC PLC 3.% *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 3.3% GILEAD SCIENCES INC 3.1% Pharma & Other Fundamental Data ABBOTT LABORATORIES 2. Biotech TOTAL 1.3% LT growth est. 9.% Payout ratio 28.% Constituent Allocation Debt-to-equity.7x No. of constituents 62 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $133,199 Med mkt cap (mns) $19,731 Large cap ( >$1bn).7% Mid cap ($2-1bn) 1. Small cap ( <$2bn).1% 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
11 Industrial Select Sector Index IXI The Industrial Select Sector index is a modified capitalizationweighted index. The index is intended to track the movements of companies in the S&P that are involved in industrial products and services. The index was established with a value of 2 on June 3, 19. One year 24.1% Five year 17. Ten year 9.3% Since inception 8.3% Beta vs. S&P 1.4 Standard deviation 11.. A rating of indicates that stocks in these indices. The majority of indices we cover fall into this category. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to- Book Value multiples. S&P SPECULATIVE E 218E CAGR Sales Earnings % Book Value % Dividends % Sales growth % 4.7% 3.7%.3% EPS growth 6.7% 12.9% %.% 1. A manufacturing renaissance--thanks in part to cheaper domestic energy and corporate tax reform--appears to be resulting in rising margins and faster long-term EPS growth expectations. Additional infrastructure spending could boost the sector's outlook still further. In any event the share price rally has pushed valuation multiples to multi-year highs (see historical P/E), resulting in a ranking marginally below the S&P. 3% % 1% % % % % E 218E Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Cash Flow. 14. Price-to-Sales Price-to-Book Value Top 1 Constituents BOEING CO 6. 3M CO 6.% 1 GENERAL ELECTRIC CO.% Transport HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.% UNION PACIFIC CORP 4.3% UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP 3.9% CATERPILLAR INC 3.7% *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B 3.% Com. Svcs LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP 3.% Other Fundamental Data GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP 2. TOTAL 44. LT growth est. 1.7% Capital Payout ratio 42.% Goods Constituent Allocation Debt-to-equity 1.2x No. of constituents 69 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $79,28 Med mkt cap (mns) $13, Large cap ( >$1bn) 96. Mid cap ($2-1bn) 3. Small cap ( <$2bn).% 216 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
12 Materials Select Sector Index IXB The Materials Select Sector Index is a modified capitalizationweighted index. The index is intended to track the movements of companies in the S&P that are involved in basic industries. The index was established with a value of 2 on June 3, 19. One year 23.9% Five year 12. Ten year 6.3% Since inception 7.9% Beta vs. S&P 1.33 Standard deviation 16.. A rating of indicates that stocks in these indices. The majority of indices we cover fall into this category. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to- Book Value multiples. S&P SPECULATIVE E 218E CAGR Sales % Earnings Book Value % Dividends Sales growth % % EPS growth % -.3% 6.% 17.7% Comparisons between forecasts and historical results may be distorted by the recent merger of DowDupont, which dominates the fund. Nonetheless abundant domestic petroleum supplies are spurring an investment boom among the chemical firms that comprise about 7% of the sector. That said the sector trades at a market multiple and ranks about on par with the S&P in our rating framework. 19% 19% % 17% 1 1 % % % E 218E Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales Price-to-Book Value Top 1 Constituents DOWDUPONT INC 23.1% 1 MONSANTO CO 8.1% PRAXAIR INC 6.3% AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS INC.3% ECOLAB INC. SHERWIN-WILLIAMS CO/THE.% PPG INDUSTRIES INC 4. *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) LYONDELLBASELL INDU-CL A 4. INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO 3.7% Other Fundamental Data NEWMONT MINING CORP 3.% TOTAL 68. LT growth est. 9.9% Payout ratio 39.1% Constituent Allocation Debt-to-equity 1.1x No. of constituents 2 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $41,6 Med mkt cap (mns) $11,63 Large cap ( >$1bn) 96.% Mid cap ($2-1bn) 3.% Small cap ( <$2bn).% Materials 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
13 Real Estate Select Sector Index IXRE The Real Estate Select Sector Index is a modified capweighted index. The index isintended to track the movements of Real Estate Investment Trusts in the S&P, 12 excluding Mortgage REITs. This index was established with a 1 value of on August 17, Aug- Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 One year 1.9% Five year n/a Ten year n/a Since inception n/a Beta vs. S&P 1.9 Standard deviation 12.7%. A rating of indicates that stocks in these indices. The majority of indices we cover fall into this category. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to- Book Value multiples. S&P SPECULATIVE E 218E CAGR Sales % Earnings Book Value Dividends % Sales growth 14.%. 6.% 6.1% EPS growth 1.7% 12.7% 7.9% Profits (based on funds from operations) probably grew less than 3% last year and are forecast to grow just this year--both figures below trend line--as retail properties in particular continue to show weakness. REITs trade near the bottom of their range for the past few years of between 17x- 21x earnings as the prospect of higher interest rates casts a shadow over the sector, and they offer yields slightly lower than Utilities. % 1% % % % 3% % 1% % % E 218E Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales Price-to-Book Value Top 1 Constituents AMERICAN TOWER CORP-CL A 9.% SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC 7. 1 CROWN CASTLE INTL CORP 6.7% EQUINIX INC. PROLOGIS INC.3% PUBLIC STORAGE WEYERHAEUSER CO 4. *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC 3.9% EQUITY RESIDENTIAL 3. Other Fundamental Data Real Estate WELLTOWER, INC. 3. TOTAL 4.9% LT growth est. 8. Payout ratio 64. Constituent Allocation Debt-to-equity 1.4x No. of constituents 33 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $26,39 Med mkt cap (mns) n/a Large cap ( >$1bn) 87.% Mid cap ($2-1bn) 13.% Small cap ( <$2bn).% 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
14 Technology Select Sector Index IXT The Technology Select Sector Index is a modified capweighted index. The index is intended to track the movements of companies in the S&P that are involved in the development or production of technology products. The index was established with a value of 2 on June 3, 19. One year 34. Five year 19.% Ten year 11. Since inception.% Beta vs. S&P 1.16 Standard deviation 13.. A rating of indicates that stocks in these indices. The majority of indices we cover fall into this category. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to- Book Value multiples. S&P SPECULATIVE ALTAR Scores E 218E CAGR Sales % Earnings Book Value % Dividends % Sales growth 3.1%.1% 13.% 3. 7.% 9. EPS growth 3. 7.% 13.% 4.7% % Tech was the best performing sector by far last year, which pushed valuations well above their range of the recent past (see P/E history below) and in turn diminished future appreciation potential to about average in our opinion. Expectations for this year are far acceleration on the top line as corporations boost capex, while EPS growth if forecast in the mid-teens, slightly better than the S&P. 3% % 1% % % % 1% % % E 218E Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales Price-to-Book Value Top 1 Constituents APPLE INC 14.9% MICROSOFT CORP 11.% Telecom Semis 1 FACEBOOK 7.3% ALPHABET INC. CLASS A.3% ALPHABET INC. CLASS C. INTEL CORP 3.7% Hardware AT&T INC 3.% *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) VISA INC-CLASS A SHARES 3.% CISCO SYSTEMS INC 2.9% Other Fundamental Data VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC 2. TOTAL 6.% LT growth est. 1.7% Payout ratio 3. Constituent Allocation Software Debt-to-equity.6x No. of constituents 71 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $41,2 Med mkt cap (mns) $13,718 Large cap ( >$1bn) 99.% Mid cap ($2-1bn) 1.% Small cap ( <$2bn).% 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure
15 Utilities Select Sector Index IXU The Utilities Select Sector Index is a modified capitalizationweighted index. The index is intended to track the movements of companies in the S&P that are utilities. The index was established with a value of 2 on June 3, 19. One year 12.1% Five year 12. Ten year 6.3% Since inception 6.% Beta vs. S&P.11 Standard deviation 12.. A rating of indicates that stocks in these indices. The majority of indices we cover fall into this category. The rating is based on a proprietary scoring system that analyzes metrics such as Return on Equity and Price-to- Book Value multiples. S&P SPECULATIVE E 218E CAGR Sales Earnings % Book Value Dividends % Sales growth % -.% -.3% % EPS growth -1.% 4.3% %.9% 4.7% Despite a relatively weak performance last year, valuations remain elevated (and yields depressed) in relation to the past five years. Higher interest rates remain a threat to share prices of Utilities in 218, but longer term we think distributed generation and improved battery technology are bigger threats to the sector's underlying business and profitability. Net/net Utilities rate about on par with the S&P % % % % E 218E Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Cash Flow Price-to-Sales Price-to-Book Value Top 1 Constituents NEXTERA ENERGY GROUP 1. DUKE ENERGY CORP 8. 1 SOUTHERN CO 7.% DOMINION RESOURCES INC/VA 7.% EXELON CORP.% AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER.3% P G & E CORP 4.3% *based on twelve months' forward EPS (max value of 1) SEMPRA ENERGY 4.3% CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC 3.9% Other Fundamental Data EDISON INTERNATIONAL 3. TOTAL 6.% LT growth est. 4.7% Payout ratio 63.3% Constituent Allocation Debt-to-equity 1.4x No. of constituents 28 Weighted avg mkt cap (mns) $33,2 Med mkt cap (mns) $11,737 Large cap ( >$1bn) 92.% Mid cap ($2-1bn) 7.% Small cap ( <$2bn).% Utilities 217 AltaVista Research, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is provided for informational purposes only, and AltaVista makes no warranties with respect to its accuracy. See Disclosure SEL297 Exp 2/28/18
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