Emerging Market Debt: NexGEM for the Next Gen

Transcription

1 Emerging Market Debt: NexGEM for the Next Gen June 2017 Andrew Stanners, Investment Manager Emerging Market Debt Aberdeen Asset Management For professional investors and financial advisers only - not for use by retail investors

2 Composition of world GDP is shifting away from Developed Markets F Japan 6% Other 9% Emerging Markets 40% North America 11% Japan 2% Other 9% Emerging Markets 69% North America 22% Europe 9% Europe 23% By 2050 Asia and Emerging Markets are forecast to represent 77% of world GDP This compares to approximately 48% of world GDP today Source: Citi Mar 11; GDP measured in 2010 PPP USD 1

3 Investible countries in the EMD universe 2

4 EM growth downturn comes to an end while DM growth remains subdued Percentage GDP growth, constant prices 8 Euro area Major advanced economies (G7) Emerging market and developing economies Forecast Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Apr 17. For illustrative purposes only 3

5 The EMD universe has grown rapidly Investable EMD market (US$trn) 4.0 LC Sovereign HC Sovereign HC Corporate Source: JP Morgan, 28 Feb LC Sovereign = JPM GBI-EM Broad Diversified index; HC Sovereign = JPM EMBI Global Diversified index; HC Corporate = JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified index 4

6 Size of the Emerging Market Debt asset class Size 65 countries of the EMD in the market hard by currency sector sovereign index 17 countries in the local currency sovereign index 52 countries and 547 issuers in the hard currency corporate index Local Sovereign 1,512bn (53%) USD Sovereign 628bn (22%) UK Gilts UK Credit UK High Yield Total Emerging Market Debt market = 1.4 trillion = 460 billion = 48 billion = 2.8 trillion As a result, liquidity has improved dramatically throughout the asset class USD Corporate 692bn (24%) Hard Currency = EMBI Global Local Currency = GBI-EM Broad Corporate = CEMBI Broad Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, 31 Dec 16 5

7 Relative market size Relative size of markets (US$bn) 2,000 1,500 1, EM LC Sovereigns UK Gilts EM Corporates EM HC Sovereigns UK Credit UK HY Source: JP Morgan, 31 Dec 16. For illustrative purposes only Note: HY (high yield); HC (hard currency); LC (local currency) 6

8 Perception or reality of risk Country A Country B Public Debt (% GDP) Fiscal Deficit (% GDP) Real 10 Yield (%) Nominal Yield (%) Nominal GDP Growth (%) Credit rating AA A UK Mexico Source: IMF WEO Apr 17, S&P Local Currency Debt Rating. Standard & Poor s credit ratings are expressed as letter grades that range from 'AAA' to 'D' to communicate the agency s opinion of relative level of credit risk. Ratings from AA to CCC may be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to show relative standing within the major rating categories. The investment grade category is a rating from AAA to BBB-. 7

9 Robust performance across all segments of the asset class in 2016 Index Returns in % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% UK Gilts EMU Sovereign US Treasuries EM HC Corporate EM LC Sovereign EM HC Sovereign Frontier HC Sovereign Indices used: EMU Sovereign = JP Morgan GBI EMU (unhedged in USD); UK Gilts = BofAML UK Gilts All Stocks Index (unhedged in USD); US Treasuries = Citi WGBI US; EM HC Corporate = JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified; EM LC Sovereign = JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified (unhedged in USD); EM HC Sovereign = JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified ; Frontier HC Sovereign = JP Morgan NEXGEM Past performance is not a guide to future results Source: JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bloomberg as at 31 Dec 16. 8

10 EM valuations stand out Yield (%) 8.0 EM HC Sovereign DM Sovereign EM LC Sovereign EM HC Sovereign: JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index; EM LC Sovereign: JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Index; DM Sovereign: JPM GBI Global Index Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guide to future results Source: JP Morgan, 31 May 17. For illustrative purposes only 9

11 Real yields are compelling relative to developed markets Real yield (%) 10 year nominal bond yield (%) Brazil BB Egypt B- Mexico A Russia BBB- S. Africa BBB- Peru A- Colombia BBB+ Indonesia BBB- Turkey BB+ India BBB- US AA+ Japan A+ Germany AAA UK AA 1. Bloomberg consensus forecasts are used for 2017 CPI (consumer price inflation). 2. Standard & Poor s credit ratings are expressed as letter grades that range from 'AAA' to 'D' to communicate the agency s opinion of relative level of credit risk. Ratings from AA to CCC may be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (-) sign to show relative standing within the major rating categories. The investment grade category is a rating from AAA to BBB-. Source: S&P Local Currency Debt Rating, Bloomberg, 1 Jun 17. For illustrative purposes only 10

12 There has been an improvement in EM currency valuations Average real effective exchange rate in EM (ex-china, 2010=100) The correction in EM currencies over the past five years is similar to the correction seen during the Asia crisis when EM currencies generally changed from fixed to floating exchange rates At the start of 2016 EM currencies approached the bottom of their 20 year range Source: BIS (Bank for International Settlements), 30 Apr 17 GDP weighted index of 17 emerging market countries Note: EMFX (emerging market foreign exchange rate) For illustrative purposes only 11

13 Research visits Sovereign Corporate Total 2014 Total Total Jan China China, Malaysia Feb Azerbaijan, Ethiopia, Hungary, India, Kenya, Poland, Romania, Tanzania Mar India, South Africa Indonesia Apr Brazil, China, Indonesia, Sri Lanka Indonesia May Croatia, Serbia, Thailand, Zambia - Jun Mozambique Mexico, Philippines Jul Colombia, Peru - Aug Indonesia Turkey Abu Dhabi, Argentina, Brazil, UAE, Russia Sep Malaysia, Mongolia, Turkey Argentina, Brazil, India, Russia Oct India, Lebanon, Russia - Nov Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, UAE, Saudi Arabia China, Jakarta Dec China - Total Jan -- China Feb Hungary, Poland, Romania, Kenya, Zambia China, Korea, Ukraine Mar Abu Dhabi, Ethiopia, Oman, Qatar, UAE, Abu Dhabi, India, Oman, Qatar, UAE Apr Malaysia India, Georgia, Russia May Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Ivory Coast, Ghana, South Africa, Turkey, Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco Malaysia Jun -- Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria Total Poland China Ethiopia Russia South Africa India Argentina Brazil Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, Jun 17 12

14 Research: sovereign and credit Independent, forward-looking fundamental analysis Country note: held centrally, shared globally TAP: held centrally, shared globally Structural reform Macro Structure Political Issuance Cash-flow Valuation External balance Debt ownership Macro economic Monetary /Fiscal policy Country note Dynamics ESG analysis Industry Company TAP Covenant ESG analysis Outputs: Credit rating outlook Scenario analysis Forecasts (rate/fx) Outlook summary Outputs: Financial forecasting Forward credit rating Downside scenarios Investment rationale Outlook Other relevant factors Why the Country note and Total Analytical Package (TAP) are important: Consistent, rigorous process to establish a view for rates, credit and FX quantifies likely market ranges Regular cycle; nothing goes stale enables quick reaction to events Team cannot own a credit/sovereign issuer without a research note For illustrative purposes only Source: Aberdeen Asset Management Notes: ESG (environmental, social and governance); FX (foreign exchange) A research note is created for every issuer we own 13

15 India Currying favour from foreign investors 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Mar 13 Dec 13 Sep 14 Jun 15 Mar 16 Dec 16 Key themes Current Account as % of GDP Basic Balance as % of GDP Economy enjoys significant benefits from falling oil prices Positive impact of reform already visible Uncorrelated and domestically driven bond market Low foreign investor ownership due to market constraints Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, 30 Apr 17. For illustrative purposes only 14

16 Argentina Emerging from the shadows of default Public External Debt (%GDP) International Reserves (US$bn) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Key themes The settlement with holdout out investors enabled Argentina to regain market access and issue government debt Increased supply has raised debt levels but these are manageable given the low starting point Export tariffs eliminated, INDEC normalised, currency liberalisation 0 Source: Bloomberg, Jun 17. For illustrative purposes only 15

17 Honduras No more banana skins? 0 Fiscal Balance (% GDP)* F Key themes IMF program started in 2014 Major part of program will be reform of SOE s and the electricity sector which should improve the fiscal balance Doubling of coffee prices has helped offset yield losses due to Roya fungus * Consolidated Public Sector Sources: Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, IMF, EIU, May 17 16

18 Better risk-adjusted returns than other asset classes 10 years benchmark risk and returns Benchmark annualised returns USD (%) 9 Frontier Markets EM HC Corporates EM HC Sovereigns 5 4 EM LC Sovereigns 3 EM Equities 2 UK Gilts 1 0 UK Equities Annualised volatility (%) Source: JP Morgan, 31 Dec 16. For illustrative purposes only Benchmarks used: UK Gilts = BofAML UK Gilts All Stocks, EM Corporate = JPM CEMBI BD, EM HC Sovereign = JPM EMBI GD, EM LC Sovereign = JPM GBI-EM GD, EM Frontier = JPM NEXGEM, UK Equities = FTSE100, EM Equities = EM Free Past performance is not a guide to future results. 17

19 EMD has low/negative correlation with US Treasuries 10 years to 31 Dec 16 EM Hard Currency Sov EM Local Currency Sov EM Hard Currency Corp US Inv. Grade Credit US High Yield Developed Market Sov US Treasury EM Equities US Equities Frontier Market Sov Frontier Market Sov US Equities EM Equities US Treasury Developed Market Sov US High Yield US Inv. Grade Credit EM Hard Currency Corp EM Local Currency Sov EM Hard Currency Sov 1.00 Source: JP Morgan, 31 Dec 16. For illustrative purposes only Benchmarks used: EM Frontier = JPM NEXGEM, US Equities = S&P 500, EM Equities = EM Free, US Treasury = JPM GBI US, Developed Market Sov = JPM GBI Global, US High Yield = JPM US HY, US IG Credit = JPM JULI, EM Hard Currency Corporate = JPM CEMBI BD, EM LC Sovereign = JPM GBI-EM GD, EM HC Sovereign = JPM EMBI GD Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index 18

20 Attractive yields, but where should the next generation look? Yields (%) EM Local Currency Sovereign EM Hard Currency Sovereign EM Hard Currency Corporate Frontier Market Sovereign AG - Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund AG - Frontier Markets Bond Fund Source: JP Morgan, 1 Jun 17 Past performance is not a guide to future results EM Local Currency Sovereign = GBI-EM Global Diversified, EM Hard Currency = EMBI Global Diversified, EM Hard Currency Corporates = CEMBI Broad Diversified, Frontier Markets = NEXGEM Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. For illustrative purposes only 19

21 Mozambique Mongolia Uganda Rwanda Ethiopia Bangladesh Côte d'ivoire Tanzania Kenya Senegal Vietnam Egypt Pakistan Georgia Ghana Sri Lanka Cameroon Emerging markets Dominican Republic Gabon Morocco Zambia Nicaragua Tunisia Ukraine Guatemala Armenia Serbia Costa Rica Honduras Paraguay Namibia Bolivia Fiji Papua New Guinea Argentina Jordan Lebanon Suriname Jamaica Republic of Congo Croatia Belarus El Salvador Belize Nigeria Developed markets Iraq Ecuador Angola Barbados Venezuela Frontier growth outlook remains healthy IMF forecast GDP growth (%) Source: IMF, WEO, Apr 17 Estimates are offered as opinion and are not reflective of potential performance. Estimates are not guaranteed and actual events or results may differ materially For illustrative purposes only 20

22 Serbia Georgia Paraguay Romania Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Lithuania Indonesia Latvia Ivory Coast Zambia Colombia Angola Armenia Croatia Kenya Sri Lanka Namibia Slovakia Uruguay Poland Russia Vietnam Ghana Ukraine Peru Iraq Ecuador Ethiopia Philippines Panama Malaysia China Jamaica Dom. Rep. Senegal Pakistan El Salvador Turkey Nigeria India Costa Rica Cameroon Chile UK Germany S. Africa Guatemala Honduras Jordan xx Morocco Mongolia Oman US Tunisia Trin. and Tob. Brazil Mexico Hungary Gabon Mozambique Lebanon Belize Argentina Greece Bolivia Egypt Thailand Venezuela Are EM Countries still Emerging? Other indicators give a more mixed message Change in Governance rank Governance rank for 40 EM countries has Improved, but 26 have deteriorated Freedom has Improved, but only material change is reduction in number of repressed countries. Its been far harder to join the ranks of mostly free Ease of doing Business many EM countries rank as high as DM countries (Malaysia, Poland, Kazakhstan), while other lag considerably (Venezuela, Gabon, Lebanon, Argentina, Ecuador) EM Freedom ranking % of EM countries Governance rank is average of six indicators from Worldwide Governance Indicators: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Corruption. Freedom refers to Index of Economic Freedom, based on 10 quantitative and qualitative factors Source: World Bank, The Heritage Foundation 0 Repressed Mostly un-free Moderately free Mostly free Free 21

23 EMD is maturing as an asset class, will frontiers follow the same path? Hard Currency Sovereign spread over US treasuries Russia Crisis stock market crash Lehman Crisis Taper Tantrum Oil reaches US$28 Trump elected Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, 29 Mar Hard Currency Sovereign = JPM EMBI Global Diversified index 22

24 So are Emerging Markets risk free? 1. Donald Trump 2. Vladimir Putin 3. Policy Makers 4. Xi Jinping 23

25 The US dollar decline has been TREMENDOUS! US Dollar Index (DXY) Net futures position in the US dollar ,000 CFTC NYCE US Dollar Index Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions , ,000 45,000 40, , Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 30,000 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Source: Bloomberg, 31 May 17 Past performance is not a guide to future results 24

26 Putin s next move? Source: Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty. 25

27 The market has now priced out more aggressive Fed hikes US Treasury 1 year x 1 year forward Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Source: Bloomberg, 31 May 17 26

28 China is of far greater importance for commodities than the US China is the world s largest consumer for many commodities, and its consumption dwarves that of the USA Copper Coal Aluminium China 50% US 8% Rest of world 42% China 50% US 10% Rest of world 40% China 54% US 9% Rest of world 37% Nickel Iron ore Zinc China 48% US 9% Rest of world 43% China 47% US 2% Rest of world 51% China 47% US 7% Rest of world 46% Source: BP Statistical Review, World Steel Association, China Customs, Bloomberg, Jan 17 27

29 Under weights Over weights Key characteristics Aberdeen Global Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund YTM (%): 6.20* (fund) vs 4.92 (bmk) Duration (years): 6.35 (fund) vs 6.55 (bmk) Ave. rating: BB- (fund) vs BB+ (bmk) % Frontiers: 26% Country allocation Top 5 over/under weights (%) Sector (%) Turkey Fund Benchmark* Hard Currency Sovereign/Quasis, 75% Argentina Hard Currency Corporates, 10% UAE Local Currency Sovereign/Quasis, 12% Brazil Cash, 3% Georgia Poland Malaysia Lebanon Philippines China 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Currency (%) US Dollars, 91% Brazilian Real, 3% Turkish Lira, 2% Uruguayan Peso, 1% Indian Rupee, 1% Peruvian Sol, 1% Indonesian Rupiah, 1% Argentine Peso, 1% * Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified. Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, JP Morgan, 1 Jun 17 (unaudited data) Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Figures may appear not to add due to rounding. For illustrative purposes only 28

30 Key characteristics Aberdeen Global Frontier Markets Bond Fund YTM (%): 7.12* Duration (years): 3.57 Ave. rating: B Country allocation Top 5 over weights (%) Sector (%) Ecuador Hard Currency Sovereign/Quasis, 57% Hard Currency Corporates, 11% Sri Lanka Local Currency Sovereign/Quasis, 28% Cash, 4% Nigeria Mongolia Ghana 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Currency (%) US Dollars,74% Sri Lankan Rupee, 5% Dominican Peso, 4% Argentine Peso, 3% Ghanaian Cedi, 2% Kenyan Shilling, 2% Nigerian Naira, 2% Ugandan Shilling, 2% Georgian Lari, 2% Mongolian Tögrög, 2% Egyptian Pound, 1% Uruguayan Peso, 1% * Figure is before hedging costs Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, JP Morgan, 1 Jun 17 (unaudited data) Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Figures may appear not to add due to rounding. For illustrative purposes only 29

31 Aberdeen s expertise Established, well-resourced, stable team with deep experience Long track record in investing in frontier markets that are often overlooked by competitors with fewer resources Same investment process for mainstream EM and frontier market countries Exploiting opportunities through extensive research to bridge the information gap that exists in many frontier markets Country research trips are the key to success 34 Over 80 Over 300 Over 50 ESG dedicated EM debt investment professionals countries covered in depth companies actively covered country visits every year analysis on all issuers covered Generating intelligent alpha 30

32 Appendices 31

33 Aberdeen Global Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund Investment rationale 1. Fundamentals Developing economies are generally in a much better position to weather uncertainty than even a few years ago. Many emerging economies have undergone significant adjustments in recent years. This is most evident in their current account balances where deficits have narrowed. 2. Diversification We focus on the entire EM debt universe to maximise the return potential and minimise risk. This allows us to take advantage of the most attractive opportunities within the asset class, across hard currency sovereigns, quasi-sovereigns and corporates, as well as in local currency sovereigns and foreign exchange. We build diverse portfolios from the bottom up, investing in over 50 countries. 3. Research focus EMD spans a wide spectrum of risks and returns, reflecting the very different political and economic profiles of the countries and companies within the universe. This underscores the importance of doing your research. We undertake thorough and detailed analysis on over 80 countries and 300 companies, conducting over 50 country visits each year to make sure we understand all the risks. 4. Expertise in smaller markets We have a long track record in investing in frontier markets that are often overlooked by many of our competitors. Over recent years, the Fund has typically invested c. 30% in frontier markets. Frontier market bonds have lower correlations to traditional fixed income markets and can help enhance portfolio diversification. 5. Compelling yields With an average yield of 6.2%*, the Fund offers an attractive solution in a yield starved world. This is especially striking given that default rates for both EM sovereigns and corporates are expected to remain low. 6. Large, liquid fund At $1.7bn the Fund can form a significant part of any client s EM bond allocation. We have no capacity constraints. * Figure is before hedging costs Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 2 May 17 32

34 Aberdeen Global Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund Key fund facts, 31 May 17 Key facts Fund size: US$1.8bn Launch date: 15 Aug 01 Investment team: Global Emerging Market Debt Team Benchmark: JPM EMBI Global Diversified No of holdings: 287 % in top 10 holdings: 18.2% ISIN: LU Valoren: Ongoing charge figure % Share class: A2 Acc Fund domicile: Luxembourg Annualised performance (Gross) % YTD Since inception (p.a.) Fund Benchmark Difference Performance is gross of fees and does not reflect advisory fees, had such fees been deducted, returns would have been lower. Past performance is not a guide to future results Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Thomson Reuters Datastream, USD Cumulative performance (Gross) Risk analysis (3 years) Tracking error 2.85 Information ratio Sharpe ratio Fund Benchmark 1. The On-going Charge Figure (OCF), as at 31 May 17, is the overall cost shown as a percentage of the value of the assets of the Funds. It is made up of the Annual Management Charge (AMC) of 1.50% and other charges. It does not include any initial charges or the cost of buying and selling stocks for the Funds. The OCF can help you compare the annual operating expenses of different Funds 33

35 Aberdeen Global Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund Current positions JPM EMBI Global Diversified (%) Fund (%) Sov/Quasisov 4 Hard currency (%) Corporate Local currency (%) Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Suriname Uruguay Venezuela Other LATAM Total Armenia Azerbaijan Bahrain Croatia Egypt Ethiopia Gabon Georgia Ghana Hungary Ivory Coast FX (%) JPM EMBI Global Diversified (%) Fund (%) Sov/Quasi -sov 4 Hard currency (%) Corporate Local currency (%) Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kuwait Morocco Namibia Nigeria Oman Russia Rwanda Senegal Serbia South Africa Tanzania Tunisia Turkey UAE Ukraine Other EMEA Total India Indonesia Mongolia Sri Lanka Vietnam Other Asia Total US/ Cash Total FX (%) * Figure is before hedging costs 1 Belize, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago 2 Angola, Cameroon, Iraq, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Mozambique, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, Zambia 3 China, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines 4 Quasi-sovereign = 100% government-owned Country allocations are subject to change. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 1 Jun 17 (unaudited data) YTM (%): 6.20* (fund) vs 4.92 (bmk) Duration (years): 6.35 (fund) vs 6.55 (bmk) Ave. rating: BB- (fund) vs BB+ (bmk) 34

36 Aberdeen Global Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund Allocation history 100% LC Sovereign/Quasi HC Sovereign/Quasi HC Sovereign Frontier Markets Corporates EM FX exposure 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Mar 17. For illustrative purposes only 35

37 For professional investors and financial advisers only not for use by retail investors Please consider the following risks: The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested. Investing globally can bring additional returns and diversify risk. However, currency exchange rate fluctuations may have a positive or negative impact on the value of your investment. Emerging markets or less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries. This may mean your money is at greater risk. Bonds are affected by changes in interest rates, inflation and any decline in creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Bonds that produce a higher level of income usually also carry greater risk as such bond issuers may not be able to pay the bond income as promised or could fail to repay the capital amount used to purchase the bond. Where a bond market has a low number of buyers and/or a high number of sellers, it may be harder to sell particular bonds at an anticipated price and/or in a timely manner. Derivatives can result in gains or losses that are greater than the original amount invested Contingent convertible bonds can automatically convert into shares or be written down if the financial strength of the issuer falls in a certain way. This may result in substantial or total losses of the bond value. The Sub-Fund s exposure to a single country market, which may be subject to particular political and economic risks, may cause the sub-fund to be more volatile than more broadly diversified funds. Contingent convertible bonds can automatically convert into shares or be written down if the financial strength of the issuer falls in a certain way. This may result in substantial or total losses of the bond value. Frontier market countries typically have smaller economies and even less developed capital markets or legal and political systems than traditional, more developed emerging market countries. As a result, the investment in frontier markets can be riskier than investing in emerging market countries. Performance may be strongly influenced by movements in currency rates. The value of your investment will either rise or fall in response to changes in foreign exchange rates between the base currency of the fund, and the currencies of the securities held by the fund. 36 aberdeen-asset.co.uk/income

38 Other important information: For professional investors and financial advisers only not for use by retail investors Aberdeen Global I and Global II are Luxembourg-domiciled UCITS funds, incorporated as a Société Anonyme and organized as a Société d Invetissement á Capital Variable (a SICAV ). The information contained in this marketing document is intended to be of general interest only and should not be considered as an offer, or solicitation, to deal in the shares of any securities or financial instruments. Aberdeen Global has been authorized for public sale in certain jurisdictions and private placement exemptions may be available in others. It is not intended for distribution or use by any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication or use would be prohibited. Aberdeen Global is not registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, nor the United States Investment Company Act of 1940 and herefore may not directly or indirectly be offered or sold in the United States of America or any of its states, territories, possessions, or other areas subject to its jurisdiction or to or for the benefit of a United States Person. For the definition of United States Person, see the current Aberdeen Global prospectus. Subscriptions for shares in the Fund may only be made on the basis of the latest prospectus and relevant Key Investor Information Document (KIID) which provides additional information as well as the risks of investing and may be obtained free of charge from Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited, 10 Queens Terrace, Aberdeen, AB10 1YG, Scotland and are also available on The views expressed in this presentation should not be construed as advice on how to construct a portfolio or whether to buy, retain or sell a particular investment. The information contained in the presentation is for exclusive use by professional customers/eligible counterparties (ECPs) and not the general public. The information is being given only to those persons who have received this document directly from Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) and must not be acted or relied upon by persons receiving a copy of this document other than directly from Aberdeen Asset Management. No part of this document may be copied or duplicated in any form or by any means or redistributed without the written consent of Aberdeen Asset Management. The information contained herein including any expressions of opinion or forecasts have been obtained from or are based upon sources believed by us to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ) FTSE FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under licence. RAFI is a registered trademark of Research Affiliates, LLC. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE s express written consent. Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. 37 aberdeen-asset.co.uk/income