Trends, like horses, are easier to ride in the direction they are going

Transcription

1 2050 Hindsight. Trends, like horses, are easier to ride in the direction they are going - John Naisbitt, Megatrends, 1982 CFA Society San Diego Lawrence Speidell Chief Investment Officer, CEO Frontier Market Asset Management larry@frontiermkt.com December 2013

2 2 Dhaka, Bangladesh

3 3 Erbil, Iraq

4 4 Maputo, Mozambique

5 Today s World

6 World Wealth

7 Today s World Source: databank.worldbank.org, world-development-indicators, WDI1205, WDI Ranks

8 GDP Growth Economic Growth in Frontier & Emerging Economies is High Source: IMF, Jan

9 Demographics Bangladesh: Population 150 million 81,508 primary schools 16.5 million students 361,000 teachers (43% female) student teacher ratio of 46. Photo: Frontier Market Asset Management, 2010

10 Population Now and 2300

11 Demographics Population Growth Rate Bulgaria % Ukraine % Belarus % Moldova % Georgia % Lithuania % Russia % Malawi % Occupied Palestine % Somalia % Benin % Tanzania % Burkina Faso % Afghanistan % Uganda % Niger % 11

12 Demographics - Favor the Developing Countries. Age > Italy Japan Germany Greece Bulgaria Romania Poland Singapore Population Demographics China Ireland Bahrain UAE Argentina Sri Lanka Vietnam Peru Pakistan Developed Markets Emerging Markets Frontier Markets Zambia Uganda Nigeria Age < 15 FrontierCountries0607 Source: World Development Indicators, 2006

13 Demographics China versus India Today 100+ China 2011 Population 1,385, India 2011 Population (000) 1,240, Females Males Females Males (80,000) (40,000) - 40,000 80,000 Source: United Nations Population Prospects, 2009 (80,000) (40,000) - 40,000 80,000

14 Demographics China versus India in China 2050 Population 1,536, India 2050 Population 1,663, Females Males Females Males (80,000) (40,000) - 40,000 80,000 Source: United Nations Population Prospects, 2009 (80,000) (40,000) - 40,000 80,000

15 Demographics: Japan Now & Females Males Japan 2011 Population 137, Females Males Japan 2050 Population 120, (10,000) (5,000) - 5,000 10,000 (10,000) (5,000) - 5,000 10,000

16 Demographics: U.S. Now & United States of America 2011 Population 335, United States of America 2050 Population 444, Females Males Females Males (20,000) (10,000) - 10,000 20,000 (20,000) (10,000) - 10,000 20,000

17 Demographics: Nigeria Now & Nigeria 2011 Population 162, Nigeria 2050 Population 291, Females Males Females Males (20,000) (10,000) - 10,000 20,000 (20,000) (10,000) - 10,000 20,000

18 Demographic Destiny - Productivity, Dependency & Maturity

19 Demographic Destiny - Productivity, Dependency & Maturity

20 Demographic Destiny - Productivity, Dependency & Maturity

21 Productivity Employed, Employed, Employed, Employed, 70+ United States 66% 43% 20% 5% Germany 61% 23% 3% 0% Italy 26% 12% 1% 0% Spain 46% 22% 0% 0% Cambodia 16% 1% 0% 0% Productivity Estimates Age US N. Europe S. Europe Japan China India Emerging Frontier PoorFrontier % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 5% 20% % 10% 10% 10% 40% 40% 40% 40% 70% % 50% 50% 50% 80% 80% 80% 80% 95% % 75% 75% 75% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 90% 90% 90% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 95% 95% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 90% 90% 90% % 100% 60% 100% 90% 80% 80% 80% 50% % 80% 40% 90% 70% 50% 50% 50% 20% % 50% 10% 70% 40% 25% 25% 25% 10% % 5% 2% 20% 5% 5% 5% 5% 0% >70 5% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Source: FMAM estimates, OECD 21

22 22 Productivity

23 23 Productivity

24 24 Productivity

25 25 Productivity

26 Productivity Population (000) Productivity Envelope. Mil Hrs % Chg % Chg Africa Malawi 15,381 49, % 9,824 35, % Africa Zambia 13,475 45, % 8,606 30, % Africa Uganda 34,509 94, % 21,379 73, % Africa Nigeria 162, , % 111, , % Africa Rwanda 10,943 26, % 7,665 20, % Africa Senegal 12,768 28, % 8,809 23, % Africa Kenya 41,610 96, % 29,310 76, % Africa Mozambique 23,930 50, % 15,957 40, % Africa Côte d'ivoire 20,153 40, % 14,097 33, % Africa Ghana 24,966 49,107 97% 18,436 40, % Africa Zimbabwe 12,754 20,614 62% 9,173 18,000 96% Asia Pakistan 176, ,875 56% 136, ,903 75% Mid East Jordan 6,330 9,882 56% 4,835 8,436 74% Lat Am Paraguay 6,568 10,323 57% 5,149 8,554 66% E Europe Romania 21,436 18,535-14% 19,067 12,787-33% E Europe Ukraine 45,190 36,074-20% 40,151 26,005-35% E Europe Georgia 4,329 3,186-26% 3,743 2,238-40% E Europe Bulgaria 7,446 5,459-27% 6,360 3,680-42% 26

27 27 Productivity Population (000) Productivity Envelope. Mil Hrs % Chg % Chg Developed Australia 22,606 31,385 39% 18,579 22,572 21% Developed United States 313, ,101 29% 265, ,671 16% Developed Canada 34,350 43,642 27% 29,357 31,488 7% Developed United Kingdom 62,417 72,817 17% 50,440 52,614 4% Developed France 63,126 72,442 15% 50,139 50,729 1% Developed Spain 46,455 51,354 11% 40,646 33,686-17% Developed Greece 11,390 11,647 2% 9,688 7,937-18% Developed Italy 60,789 59,158-3% 50,894 38,806-24% Developed Germany 82,163 74,781-9% 68,988 49,886-28% Developed Portugal 10,690 9,379-12% 9,074 6,263-31% Developed Japan 126, ,549-14% 83,633 56,227-33% Emerging Philippines 94, ,939 63% 73, ,661 75% Emerging Israel 7,562 12,029 59% 5,861 9,057 55% Emerging Egypt 82, ,452 50% 66, ,176 53% Emerging Malaysia 28,859 43,455 51% 23,861 35,218 48% Emerging India 1,241,492 1,692,008 36% 1,065,014 1,518,598 43% Emerging Peru 29,400 38,832 32% 24,025 31,472 31% Emerging Colombia 46,927 61,764 32% 39,248 49,182 25% Emerging Mexico 114, ,925 25% 94, ,298 19% Emerging South Africa 50,460 56,757 12% 41,923 49,417 18% Emerging Turkey 73,640 91,617 24% 64,141 72,613 13% Emerging Indonesia 242, ,456 21% 212, ,784 10% Emerging Brazil 196, ,843 13% 171, ,795 0% Emerging Chile 17,270 20,059 16% 14,985 14,894-1% Emerging China 1,347,565 1,295,604-4% 1,237,559 1,053,433-15% Emerging Thailand 69,519 71,037 2% 62,701 52,168-17% Emerging Hungary 9,966 9,243-7% 8,517 6,611-22% Emerging Poland 38,299 34,906-9% 34,007 24,129-29% Emerging Russia 142, ,188-12% 130,098 91,417-30% Emerging S. Korea 48,391 47,050-3% 44,583 30,479-32%

28 Opportunity - Wages Labor Cost $/hour $/month Bangladesh $0.23 $37 India $0.51 $82 Pakistan $0.41 $66 China $1.08 $173 Source: Citi Brokerage, Competitive advantage Average monthly wages*, $ Thailand China Vietnam Source: EIU, * excluding social security Source: 28 Lockheed Corporation

29 Opportunity - Education Strathmore University, Nairobi

30 Source: Breakout Nations, Sharma, 2012 Missed Opportunity - Inequality

31

32 Opportunity - Middle Class in Africa 32 Source: The Economist, Oct 4, 2012 Bashundara City Mall, Dhaka, Bangladesh

33 Opportunity - Middle Class in Bangladesh Bashundara City Mall, Dhaka, Bangladesh 33

34 $2,000 to $12,000 is the sweet spot for consumption (Penetration of durable goods relative to annual income) $2,000 = 15,000 RMB $12,000 = 90,000 RMB

35 35 Opportunity - Middle Class Spending

36 2050 Hindsight Government

37 Veto Points Source: Veto Players, Tsebelis, 2001

38 Culture? Trust is related to income and cultural history Democracy & Trust, Mark Warren, 1999

39 World Values Survey, 2008 Culture?

40 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Rank BUSINESS FREEDOM Starting a business procedures (number), time (days), cost (% of income per capita), minimum capital (% of income per capita) Obtaining a license procedures (number), time (days), cost (% of income per capita) Closing a business time (years), cost (% of estate), recovery rate (cents on the dollar) TRADE FREEDOM The trade-weighted average tariff rate Non-tariff barriers: quantity restrictions, price restrictions, regulatory restrictions, investment restrictions, customs restrictions, and direct government intervention FISCAL FREEDOM The top tax rate on individual income and on corporate income Total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP GOVERNMENT SIZE Government spending % of GDP MONETARY FREEDOM The weighted average inflation rate for the most recent three years Price controls INVESTMENT FREEDOM Restrictions in sectors related to national security or real estate Expropriation risk Access to foreign exchange Restrictions on transfers or capital transactions

41 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Rank FINANCIAL FREEDOM Central Bank Independence Freedom of credit allocation Contract enforcement Presence of private financial institutions Foreign financial institutions not restricted PROPERTY RIGHTS Private property guaranteed by the government There is no corruption or expropriation The court system enforces contracts efficiently and quickly. The justice system punishes those who unlawfully confiscate private property CORRUPTION Transparency International s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) LABOR FREEDOM Ratio of minimum wage to the average value added per worker Hindrance to hiring additional workers Rigidity of hours Difficulty of firing redundant employees Legally mandated notice period

42 Economic Freedom The Heritage Foundation 42 The Heritage Foundation 2013 (Frontier Markets Blue, Emerging Green)

43 Total Scores Source: WDI Database 2013 Human Capital Investment Government Z Score Developed Singapore Frontier United Arab Emirates Developed Hong Kong Emerging China Frontier Vietnam Emerging Chile Frontier Bangladesh Developed Australia Frontier Mongolia Frontier Kazakhstan Frontier Mauritius Frontier Botswana Developed Germany Emerging India Frontier Namibia Developed Japan Frontier Ghana Developed United States Frontier Mozambique Developed France Frontier Argentina Frontier Venezuela Developed United Kingdom Emerging South Africa Emerging Brazil Frontier Tanzania Frontier Uganda Emerging Russia Frontier Rwanda Frontier Pakistan Frontier Senegal Frontier Georgia Frontier Zambia Frontier Cote d'ivoire Frontier Ukraine Developed Italy Frontier Kenya Frontier Zimbabwe Frontier Nigeria Frontier Malawi Developed Greece Frontier Moldova Frontier Swaziland

44 2050 Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

45 2050 Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

46 GDP: Now & 2050 Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

47 Developed in GDP pr Capita (PPP) % Chg GDP pr Capita (PPP) % Chg Developed Luxembourg $86,124 $194, % Frontier Croatia $19,330 $60, % Developed Singapore $57,932 $171, % Emerging Poland $19,885 $60, % Developed Norway $57,231 $146, % Developed Spain $32,230 $60,630 88% Developed Hong Kong $46,502 $139, % Emerging Russia $19,891 $59, % Developed Switzerland $46,384 $115, % Emerging China $7,599 $58, % Frontier UAE $47,213 $108, % Emerging Malaysia $14,731 $58, % Developed United States $47,153 $102, % Frontier Romania $14,524 $58, % Developed Sweden $39,024 $95, % Developed Italy $31,954 $57,373 80% Developed Australia $38,160 $93, % Frontier Vietnam $3,205 $55, % Developed Netherlands $42,165 $93, % Emerging Hungary $20,545 $54, % Developed Belgium $37,631 $91, % Frontier Sri Lanka $5,078 $54, % Developed Denmark $40,163 $88, % Frontier Serbia $11,349 $53, % Developed Austria $40,006 $88, % Emerging Turkey $15,687 $52, % Emerging South Korea $29,101 $87, % Frontier Tunisia $9,550 $51, % Developed Canada $39,050 $86, % Emerging Peru $9,538 $51, % Developed Germany $37,402 $82, % Frontier Lebanon $14,069 $51, % Developed Finland $36,473 $81, % Frontier Costa Rica $11,569 $50, % Developed Ireland $40,464 $77,428 91% Frontier Uruguay $14,108 $49, % Emerging Israel $28,573 $77, % Frontier Bulgaria $13,931 $49, % Developed Japan $33,733 $73, % Emerging Indonesia $4,325 $49, % Developed United Kingdom $35,686 $73, % Frontier Mongolia $4,036 $47, % Developed New Zealand $29,535 $72, % Emerging Thailand $8,554 $47, % Frontier Panama $13,608 $72, % Emerging Colombia $9,453 $46, % Frontier Slovak Republic $23,303 $69, % Frontier Georgia $5,074 $46, % Frontier Iceland $35,642 $66,570 87% Frontier Botswana $13,893 $44, % Emerging Czech Republic $24,518 $66, % Emerging Mexico $14,564 $44, % Frontier Estonia $20,663 $64, % Developed Portugal $25,416 $43,864 73% Frontier Kazakhstan $12,169 $64, % Frontier Argentina $16,012 $43, % Developed France $34,123 $63,990 88% Emerging Brazil $11,210 $42, % Frontier Slovenia $26,925 $62, % Emerging South Africa $10,565 $39, % Emerging Chile $15,779 $61, % Developed Greece $28,408 $36,791 30% Frontier Mauritius $13,697 $61, % Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2013

48 Gems and Diamonds in the Rough. GDP pr Capita (PPP) % Chg Asia Frontier Vietnam $3,205 $55, % Asia Frontier Bangladesh $1,659 $24, % Asia Frontier Mongolia $4,036 $47, % Asia Emerging Indonesia $4,325 $49, % Asia Frontier Sri Lanka $5,078 $54, % Africa Frontier Ghana $1,644 $16, % Africa Frontier Uganda $1,272 $13, % Africa Frontier Rwanda $1,163 $11, % E Europe Frontier Georgia $5,074 $46, % Africa Frontier Nigeria $2,399 $21, % Africa Frontier Malawi $882 $7, % Africa Emerging Morocco $4,712 $38, % Asia Emerging China $7,599 $58, % Africa Frontier Tanzania $1,434 $11, % Africa Frontier Zambia $1,562 $12, % LatAm Frontier Paraguay $5,181 $39, % Asia Emerging Philippines $3,969 $28, % Africa Frontier Cote d'ivoire $1,899 $13, % Asia Emerging India $3,425 $23, % LatAm Frontier Bolivia $4,849 $28, % Asia Emerging Thailand $8,554 $47, % Africa Frontier Tunisia $9,550 $51, % LaiAm Emerging Peru $9,538 $51, % LaiAm Frontier Panama $13,608 $72, % Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

49 Market Cap: Now & 2050 Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

50 Gems and Diamonds in the Rough. Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012 Est Ann MktCap Growth Frontier Paraguay 21% Frontier Uruguay 17% Frontier Tanzania 14% Frontier Uganda 12% Frontier Costa Rica 11% Frontier Bangladesh 11% Frontier Vietnam 9% Frontier Malawi 9% Frontier Slovak Repub 9% Frontier Zambia 9% Frontier Ghana 9% Frontier Namibia 8% Frontier Nigeria 8% Frontier Georgia 8% Frontier Mongolia 8% Frontier Argentina 7% Frontier Cote d'ivoire 7% Emerging Indonesia 7% Frontier Tunisia 7% Frontier Sri Lanka 6% Emerging Philippines 6%

51 Optimism Pew Survey Life Satisfaction versus Income. % Satisfaction Series1 70 Developed USA 60 Emerging Frontier 50 Log. (Series1) Source: Pew Opinion Survey 2007, Ondine Frontier Countries $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 GDP/Capita USD

52 Optimism Pew Survey Optimism versus Income Mali Bangladesh Senegal India Kenya % Optimistic Pakistan South Africa USA Source: Pew Opinion Survey 2007 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 GDP / Capita

53 Optimism Pew Survey. "Next 100 Generation Better Off" versus Income Bangladesh China % Optimistic USA Series1 Emerging Developed Frontier Italy Japan Log. (Series1) Source: Pew Opinion Survey 2007 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 GDP / Capita

54 Optimism: Determination

55 Optimism: Determination

56 Optimism: Determination

57